that's talent for you. so if you would like to keep up with the day's news it's updated constantly, all the breaking news, go to our website, it is very easy to find, it's al jazeera.com. again, that is al jazeera.com. biggest foreign terrorist threat in most americans. smuggling of oil mountain territory it controls in are syria and iraq. howard shatz is a senior economist at the think tank rand, studied organizational structure ever i.s.i.l. when it was still known as al qaeda in

iraq. why it's able to maintain its start as the world 's most affluent terrorist organization. i.s.i.l.'s got a ready source of revenue that does not depend as much on a donor network, does not depend on countries that give you money through the back door. they've got a bit of a business going. >> slu >> absolutely. they have always been that way. right now their revenue portfolio includes oil as you said and then also ex tors and extortion and taxation much as a state would do. >> ransom, a major part of their revenue? >> ransom has always been a nontrivial but small part of it. nothing compared to extortion, oil, money they stole from banks

whether they took over cities throughout iraq and syria. >> you have estimated last year that i.s.i.l. produced over 150,000 barrels of oil a day, that's huge. that amount has changed significantly since then. what's their current production load and what's the best way to cut into that revenue stream? >> so the best estimates of currently production are around 30 to 40,000 barrels per day. at least that was before october, the major air strikes tidal wave 2 started. the number of ways to cut into their revenue is, stopping them from producing, then stop them from moving that oil, that was the air strikes were about, they couldn't move the oil beyond the trucks. other than that, stop them from smuggling the oil to the potential buyers, the buyers could be anywhere.

a large portion of their cells are within their territory, very difficult to stop. and then sales to syria and beyond their territory to other countries. >> back in august 2014 when the oil strikes began, back then oil was over $100 a barrel. now it's only $35 a barrel. having? if you buy oil from i.s.i.l. you pay at substantial discount than you would in the regular market. >> absolutely. when the global oil price fell, so did the price they would receive for their own oil. refined products are also subject to world pricing. whatever they sell inside their territory is a little bit different because that's delinked. they basically have a monopoly. but threefn there ar even there, there are

connections to the world price. it also hurt iraq a great deal, it wasn't a one way bet against i.s.i.s. >> family members who have been killed, you are right if enough family members are captured and killed these prices start to add up. tell me how that works into a targeted strategy of defeating i.s.i.l. >> sure. that's a side benefit to a targeted strategy. what we did find both when they were al qaeda in iraq and then islamic state of iraq and then when they were i.s.i.l. they basically have a promise. they have a payroll and they continue to pay family. payroll was based on family size. they continued to pay families if a person was detained or killed. what we saw was that their payroll costs were mounting throughout the 2000s when u.s. operations became very large. so they either stopped paying, that would hurt morale, they are breaking their promises to their

members' families and it also hurt operations when they were running low on money. we found a statistical relationship between money they spent to a certain area and level of attacks in that area. so as we degrade their ability to raise money, we are also degrading their ability to conduct operations and hurting morale, which the members are finding their primaries are not good. >> the lower price of oil, the fact that ransom is a smaller part of things, the limits we are trying to put on money going in and out, and there are changes within the gulf states that make it a crime to send money to i.s.i.l. fighters, are they substantially degraded from where they are a year ago? >> they are degraded, i wouldn't say substantially degraded. air strikes, before them it was

estimated they were making as much as $40 million a month. let's say even if these air strikes cut them to $20 million a month, and we really don't know the overall effect, that's still a lot of money and probably more than they are paying out in payroll. the oil is just one piece, whatever we do with oil has not touched the money they raise from extortion and taxation. we have degraded them, they have less money but ultimately the way to cut their finances is to take back territory. not significantly different but more of them. the key difference between i.s.i.l. and the islamic extreme groups is i.s.i.l. is dedicated to bring about now and today and exists in an nacent form in iraq and syria and gives a certain immediacy of thoughts of joining

jihad. >> to what are recruits different from the losers and hangers on who join and become white supremacists in the past or gang members in the past? other than being muslim or somehow attached to islam are they the same group of people seeking something? >> well, they are seeking something. their motivations are very desperate and like joining any high commitment organization and while their purposes are very different it's not unlike joining say the army or the marines. some people join because they really, really believe in the mission and others are running away from something, others have financial motivations, some others honestly just really want to do something that shocked their parents. there are some if i.s.i.l. didn't exist they would join some sex cult in california, on the other hand there are some who are really dedicated. >> goes into recruitment and a

lot made of social media and much of the propaganda disseminated by i.s.i.l. is not particularly revolutionary and methods on other extreme tactics and how is it they are striking a nerve that other groups have not been able to in the past? >> i think it really is the immediacy that you can pick up and go join and active revolution that is happening in iraq and syria. you can pick up and go to it. and we have not seen something like that since say the 30s when you would go join the spanish civil war. i think that is probably not desperate but the motivations are different and you can pick up and go and join this which is very different than previous you know the al-qaeda branch where it's kind of being sympathetic with us and join the movement but hang out and help how you can. >> right, there is actually a path to doing something, the advantage of talking to a guy like you is you understand what

i have been talking about in the show the military efforts of pushing back is one thing and a little different than this, this is about western and people who have been born or become citizens of western countries and much has been made about tracking americans who traveled to syria and there are a hundredful compared to europe and the report goes in the threat of foreign fighters in europe coming to the united states from the so called visa waiver countries. congress has been talking about this a lot, what should we or can we be doing about that? >> it's very difficult to track particularly if the european countries themselves don't know if these people went to one of these countries, usually that means going to turkey and sneaking over a border, very few people who join i.s.i.l. actually get a syrian or iraqi visa. you go in through a third-party country. but it can be very, very hard to track. that is really the bottom line. >> we are now seeing the growth of not just i.s.i.l. trained

fighters carrying out attacks after returning home but the so called inspired terrorists, the one whose are inspired by i.s.i.l. to commit violence and not sure what i.s.i.l. gets actively involved in the inspiration if you will and this becomes next to impossible to track. >> that's absolutely right. look if someone goes via turkey into syria and comes back we have a chance to detect them and for that matter if they get on the phone or on to an internet line and they are communicating with raqqa or mosul, someone with i.s.i.l. central we have a chance to pick that up but if they are smart to keep it to themselves and be a lone wolf or in the two cases you have been addressing here to do it with immediate family members, someone you trust if it's the san bernardino or the brothers in boston if you don't tell anyone you don't trust absolutely how are you ever going to pick that up? we saw president obama essentially say that in his press conference last friday.

how do you find these people when they have given no indication to the outside world at all that they intend to do this. >> of course of the dozen or so recommendations to encounter the influence of i.s.i.l. only a couple of them are military based, the rest are about winning a war through messaging and sort of winning the hearts and minds of people, douglas good to talk to you and thank you so much for being with us. >> thank you. >> douglas is a future of war fellow at the new america foundation. well it's the life blood of i.s.i.l. and coming up, how controlling oil could be the key to victory and military options that are and are not on the table. ♪ >> the only live national news show at 11:00 eastern. >> we start with breaking news. >> let's take a closer look.

♪ in a little more than two

years isil has become a major player in the conflicts rage in in a little more than two years i.s.i.l. has become a major player with conflict in the middle east and over taken al-qaeda as the biggest terror threat in the minds of americans and the rise has been financed in part by the smuggling of oil in the territory it controls in syria and iraq and we are at the think tank rand and studied i.s.i.l. when it was known as al-qaeda in iraq and says oil is i.s.i.l.'s main source of revenue for its operations which is why it's able to maintain its stature as the world's richest terrorist organization and is from arlington, virginia and thanks for being with us and this is a distinct difference between i.s.i.l. and al-qaeda and i.s.i.l. has a ready source of money that doesn't depend on a donor network and doesn't depend on countries that give you money through the backdoor

and they have a bit of a business going. >> absolutely. and they have always been that way. donations have always been a small part of their total revenue portfolio and right now the revenue portfolio includes oil as you said and then also extortion and taxation much like a state would do. >> ran some has become a small irparter part of this or is it a large part? >> ransome is a small part and not like extortion and taxation and not compared to oil and the amount of money they stole from banks when they took over cities in iraq and syria. >> through your work with rand you estimated last year i.s.i.l. produced over 150,000 barrels of oil a day, that is huge, that amount has changed significantly since then, what is their current production load and what is the best way to cut into that revenue stream? >> so the best estimates of current production are around 30-40,000 barrels aday of

october after the major waive of air strikes tidal wave two and one way is to stop them from producing and stop them from moving the oil and is what the air strikes were about, to stop them moving the oil from the fields to trucks and from destroying the trucks so they couldn't move oil beyond that. other than that stopping them from smuggling the oil to potential buyers and the potential buyers may be anywhere and right now the evidence indicates a large portion of their sales are within their territory, very difficult to stop but then sales also to syria and beyond their territory to other countries. >> back in august 2014 when the air strikes began, back then oil was over $100 a barrel, oil is now $35 a barrel. what kind of impact is that having on them because i suppose if you are buying it from i.s.i.l. you are buying it at a

substantial discount to the price you would pay on the world market. >> absolutely, that is right because there is much morrising involved and you are engaged in illicit act so when the oil fell so did the price they would receive for their oil. now in terms of refined products, any refined products they sell outside of their territory are subject to world pricing, whatever they sell inside their territory is a little bit different because that is delinked and basically have a monopoly but even there there are connections to the world price and that giant decline in world oil prices hurt them and also hurt iraq a great deal so it wasn't just a one-way bet against i.s.i.s. >> you raised the issue of i.s.i.l.'s payroll and includes the family of members who have been killed and you write if enough are captured and killed the costs start to aid up and tell me how that works into a targeted strategy of defeating i.s.i.l. >> sure. that is a side benefit to a

targeted strategy. what we did find both when they were al-qaeda and iraq and islamic state of iraq and when they were i.s.i.l. is they basically have a promise with a payroll and they continued to pay families, payroll was based on family size and they continued to pay families if a person was detained or killed. what we saw was that their payroll costs were mounting through the 2000 when u.s. operations became very large and they either stopped paying and would hurt morale and breaking promises to member family and hurt operations when they were running low on money and found a statistical relationship between the amount of money they sent to a specific area and level of attacks in that area so as we degrade their ability to raise money we are also degrading their ability to conduct operations and we are hurting their morale because they find their promises are not good. >> at this point for the attacks

on oil and transport infrastructure and lower price of oil and ransome is a smaller part of things and limits of money getting in and out and changes in some of the gulf states in terms of laws that now make it a crime to send money to i.s.i.l. fighters, are they substantially degraded financially from where they were a year ago? >> they are degraded. i would not say they are substantially degraded. the resent air strikes did harm their oil revenues so before these air strikes it was estimated they were making as much as $40 million a month. let's say even if these air strikes cut them to $20 million a month and we really don't know the overall effect that is still a lot of money and it's still probably more than they are paying out in payroll. the oil revenue is just one piece. and it hasn't, whatever we have done with oil has not touched the money they raised from extortion and taxation. >> yeah. >> so we have degraded them.

they have less money but ultimately the way to cutoff their finances is to take back territory. >> good to talk to you and thanks for the information and he is a senior at rand and party rand school and bleeding i.s.i.l. dry is one target and bombing i.s.i.l. territory is another and we will look at whether drastic measures could yield the most dramatic results. ♪

>> the fight against i.s.i.l. ♪

the fight against i.s.i.l. has dominated resent presidential debates, on the republican side ted cruz argues for carpet bombing i.s.i.l. tarterry territory and wonder if the white house response is advocate given the threat that i.s.i.l. poses but president obama is staying the course with targeted air strikes and continued support for local forces fighting i.s.i.l. on the ground. for more on the administration approach we are joined now from washington and jamie good to see you and let's begin with the president's plan coalition air power, a small number of special operation forces and help for local forces and give us a record card if you will on the u.s. fight against i.s.i.l. for 2015, how would you grade it and why? >> well, i guess if i was giving it a grade i would give it for satisfaction, a c minus and d plus, for effectiveness maybe a higher grade and maybe a b plus and it's not perfect and i say

that because this is a very unsatisfying strategy. i don't know how many times i saw members of congress go up to the hill and basically urge a very frustrated members of congress to be patient, that the strategy is going to work in the end but i have to say that a year into this now it's just beginning to get the sense that maybe we are turning the corner, maybe the strategy of squeezing i.s.i.l. on the ground gradually denying thermometm territory an forces especially we are seeing the iraqi forces are able to do more in their own backyard in ramadi gives you some indication that perhaps the strategy is beginning to produce the desired result. >> david talk to me about two months ago the president authorized the sending of several dozen special operation forces and ground troops if you will to syria and administration said at the time they would advise local forces fighting islamic state and not play a direct combat role so what role

are they playing in this fight? >> well, you know, i think a lot of people when they heard they would go to i.s.i.l. and what could 50 or fewer special operations forces do against i.s.i.l.? and i think they also had the idea these forces would be if not on the front lines they would be calling in air strikes and providel tactical advice but what they are doing is on the ground and looking for the forces that the u.s. could and should support. you know, in iraq they have a partner on the ground they know and worked with peshmerga forces in the north and u.s. has a long relationship with them and no relationship with the troops and fighters in syria. they needed to get people on the ground, look people in the eye, try to figure out who is worth supporting and who should we drop ammunition too, who is actually effective on the ground and who might not be changing sides with a battle. >> when the critics are out there saying we don't know who we are giving the stuff to these

are what these particular troops do, you talk about 50 is there a likelihood that more will be sent? >> well, you know, if they are able to find the troops that the u.s. can support and they are having success and the u.s. can give them ammunition and help them along and can find more the u.s. could very well send in more special operation forces and in the future they could do in syria which they do in iraq and partner with the troops on special raids but right now the u.s. is not at the level of comfort with the fighters in syria that it is with the fighters in iraq. >> let's talk about the costs associated with the military campaign, the pentagon says we spent $5.3 billion since the operations began in august of 2014 that roughly comes out to $11 million a day, a lot of money and a lot of americans are wondering what all the money has accomplished so let's think about this in terms of what the military targets have been and how successful they have been. >> well, you know, i have to

tell you ali that war is an expensive business. a new aircraft carrier is moving in the region to start taking over air strikes and an aircraft carrier even not at war costs $1 million a day to operate, very expensive. so most of this money is going for the air operations, ammunitions, some of the aid on the ground. you know, the u.s. has had more than 8,000 coalition air strikes since the start of this and become more effective as the u.s. has better intelligence and seen more and more strikes that go against i.s.i.l.'s oil operations, not just the fuel trucks you saw bombed but also some transfer points for oil to try to cutoff the flow of funds and also these air strikes have been very effective in enabling the local forces on the ground to move. in many cases to the only reason the local forces have been able to make progress and you know you can see that because the contrast is in afghanistan where the u.s. is not providing air strikes to local afghan forces

who are fighting the taliban, they are having a heck of a time and not making the kind of progress we are seeing with some of the forces in iraq. >> jamie so as you say some of what they have been doing since august of 2014 is starting to pay dividends because of the presidential campaign and nothing but criticism from administration from both sides of the obama own party and republicans is the administration and the pentagon are they staying the course as we head into 2016 with respect to a serious strategy? >> it certainly looks like it and certainly looks like there have been minor adjustments to this strategy especially if we can see the liberation of say ramadi and moving to fallujah and mosul, if there is progress in raqqa and as far as the presidential campaign goes, and i think anybody would do this they may be lots of ideas floated out during the campaign but discover once that candidate is actually in the office of president, and has to make the decisions a lot of times it

looks a lot different. it's not unusual for some of the ideas floated during the campaign and touted during the campaign to be discarded after the oath of office. >> fascinating when i'm at the debates because i go to them all and listening that is the first time i ever heard the idea, i suspect everybody at the pentagon and administration in any administration where there is a war of some sort going on has thought through many of these and the reason they come to the ones they come to but that is the complicated business of governing and jamie thanks very much for this and that is the show for today and thank you for joining us and the news continues here on al jazeera america. ♪ >> we're here to fully get into the nuances of everything that's going on, not just in this country, but around the world. getting the news from the people who are affected. >> people need to demand reform... >> ali velshi on target.

♪ an al jazeera investigation raising new questions about some of baseball and football's biggest stars and their possible use of performance-enhancing drugs, allegations they deny. denver bronco quarterback peyton manning calls the report complete garbage and bring you part of the interview manning gave and talk with deborah the al jazeera reporter who helped lead the investigation. also more outrage this morning aimed at the chicago police department after two people were shot and killed, one police say by accident. wicked weather across much of the country, a deadly tornados devastate parts of texas as other areas brace for ice, heavy snow and flooding. ♪