i think i think you're right that i think that yvonne duke is going to very likely win this runoff i find it hard to imagine that petro is going to again even a majority of those that didn't vote for him in the first round i think that majority will go to duke a plus forty percent already in the polls i think he has a comfortable route to victory and the reason is simple people are looking for somebody who can begin to manage a terribly difficult situation. and stop a pet pro is much more of any a logical figaro person who is not known for his managerial for his governing capabilities he was mayor of bogota had some run ins there yvonne though he looks like the more steady hand now the question i think that

everyone now has in mind is basically want what's next for the peace deal with the fork if decay wanes. do you think that duke a would scrap the deal if he becomes president of columbia. i don't think i'll explicitly scrap that the zero because the international community has made it very clear that they want the peace process to move forward however he can seriously take actions that undermine it one of them would be changing that transitional justice component of it including taking doing it through constitutional amendments taking out the ten seats that the fark has in the congress and also taking a very hardline approach on the drug policy issues which the accord the drug party of the court basically tried to find alternatives to more fumigation and security

led approach to addressing the coca issues so i think that those two things would be very much very different he can also the side just not to put his political will and resources behind the accord and that would in essence basically we canot the reason why i ask you this and. i'm asking the same question to peter do you have someone who has the backing of. or the conservative establishment many people who are very skeptical of the landmark two thousand and sixteen peace deal do you think that duke a would see the a portuguese and say the deal is a turn chapter my view is somewhat different. my sense van doki clearly he is an ally of overall rebate he clearly. gained is his current victory in part because of the support for our war rebate who is still colombia's most popular politician my guess however is that

the problem is not in whether he's going to change or not the peace accord the question is how is the peace accord going to be managed. one manuel santos made a great advance he made great accomplishment and getting the peace treaty signed getting the far to disarm or most of the far to disarm but the fact is he now has an approval rating of fourteen percent in the polls which largely comes from his poor management poor implementation of the peace agreement there's just so much undone in the peace agreement my own guess is that in yvonne dukie is going to be more likely to try and begin to manage this in a way that moves the process along that begins to reset on those people that had to

flee the violence that begins to deal with the criminality that has crept into areas that were managed by the fark there needs to be a huge infrastructure to begin to create an economy and much of that that region. and then you're going to have the venezuelans who are fleeing from venezuela who are in colombia in large numbers i mean this i see burns us management task. i mean dick has been concerned about two points in particular what he described as a leniency it was those who committed atrocities and also the land reform but what would be the reaction of the fark leader if the sense that. is trying to undermine the deal. well i think that precisely if we look that who the majority of the folks voted for was to have a pet toad those are the very areas of the country especially the pacific coast him

but where here of folks that been hardest hit by the conflict those are the folks that basically voted yes on the peace referendum and for them implementing the peace deal doesn't mean just large scale infrastructure projects or having a better management but actually getting the state into those areas to meet their basic needs and services and for the cocoa farmers more than anything that means having opportunities to be able to do something else i'm not too certain that evens do k. perception of the economy is in that direction i think his perception of the economy is more to do more of the same and to think more in terms of transnationally and commercial interests that colombia's borders and west the rural areas where that is most needed or. remains a leading candidate no according to the latest polls but however petro

still stands a chance so this is why i am like to ask the question to mr keim what if petro decides to strike a deal with thirty or four hundred or would that change things on the ground. are not sure they are very compatible with one another for caro is genuine centrist very again practical pragmatic person who has innovated enormously and is it years as mayor and governor in colombia and my guess is that there's no real basis. for just won't go along with sort of the illogical all. persuasions the area logical basis of of of gustavo pet throw a minute we're talking about someone about. has been

a former guerrilla fight is there a chance for himself to reinvent his his his political identity and strike a deal with for hard to beat out of the swing voters could that pave the way for him to stand a solid chance to win the election i think that's highly unlikely and i agree with mr hakim that i don't think for hard go in his coalition is going to change radically what their positioning has been now i think he's going to probably continue with the same vein of trying to convince people of his human colombia and more social issues and that kind of thing but i don't think that beyond perhaps taking on the issue of corruption a bit furder that he's going to make radical changes to his campaign peter now do kay is going to face many challenges if he gets

the votes which basically meant taking the peace deal but will also need to talk a little bit about. economy there are many issues which are now triggering massive concerns among the colombians implementing taxes reducing taxes on companies that many see it as war two words whining expirations in the country is he likely to bring back a solid economy that could answer some of the concerns of the colombian people. well my own sense is that first of all. columbia is doing somewhat better this year the past few months than it had been in there some sense of optimism at least among some of the analysts on on colombia's economy the task is amends for not only for colombia but for most of the rest of latin america at

this point. and it faces challenges from within and of course the venezuelan refugees are not going to be a simple problem to resolve. yvonne dukie does have quite a bit of experience. i think that jimenez right the government does have to get very deeply involved in these rural areas who which have been ungoverned for many many years land ownership. is in disarray a titles to land criminality and the only solution for all that is to involve the government and i would be surprised given yvonne dougie's history and politics and at the interim merican development bank that he doesn't know that and won't find a a very talented. team of people to begin to work on problems

but it's really implementing a and setting a basis for a real economy a safer part of the country colombia is basically in a very messy situation at this point and. decay is is because been campaigning on a platform of a market friendly economics but if you look at the results of the first bands of the election these also some discontent among the. bill who believes that openness to worst mining big companies is undermining the basic tenets of the colombian economy is this something that could pose some challenges for decay as he tries to win the hearts and minds of the poor community. yes i think that he's going to face major challenges in the pacific region to north and caribbean region and where he

to i mean where he does all carbon mining and it's a situation where you have indigenous children dying of malnutrition because of poor distribution of water as well as other natural causes in the pacific region for example just last year in the most important port for colombia the one that's for sixty percent exports and imports the port of when i went to order the people aboard haven't duda basically shut it down in the pacific civic strike for twenty two days why because all of the f t a's that were signed by colombia have been doing great in generating more income for the national companies and for investors and multinationals but we see that the people actually living there the five hundred thousand of them don't even have access to potable water they don't have a hospital that can give them the attention required and they don't have basic sanitation so i think that duke is going to have to do a big job in trying to bridge that divide i mean that this tribute sion of the

wealth of colombia which is one of the main reasons why you have conflict in the country this is why you continue to have illegal economies throughout the country and those illegal economies do lead to a lot of violence in the past year we had more than one hundred seventy social leaders killed by these illegal armed groups so he's going to have to really stop just courting bogota and the big interests but have to court the african lumbee and the indigenous and the rural farmers if he wants to be able to govern in these areas peter the venezuelan quizes is it playing to the advantage. are probably. and that's why many of much many of his supporters have tried to link petro to my door to and chavez and that this is going to turn into another venezuela if he's elected yeah i think that the

colombians look of course the border they see someone who. will petrol had a certain illogical affinity for and yes. it does help. yvonne dukie can i add to that that i think the man is precisely right in other words it's not simply a question of getting the overall economy working it's making sure it's working for the large majority of colombians there's no question that lots parts of colombia are dirt poor and deserve a whole lot better. aminah are we likely to say to see duke a trying to pursue the same policies followed by his. by his presence has a particular when it comes to signing deals with of

a guerrilla groups particularly the. i think that in the case of the dialogues with the l.n. the patients in colombia has really run out and i think that he's probably not going to take the same approach as santos and i think that there are the men is going to really have to make a decision as to whether it's going to be serious about this process or not and whether it's going to unify it's different fronts in favor of peace or not i think that the lead has very much used as an excuse the fact that the colombian peace process with the fark hasn't fully been implemented in order to continue out with a lot of very serious activities a lot of abuses and i don't think that duke is going to have the same approach so i think that we may see some changes there it's also worth mentioning that there is another group that which is also on the border with venezuela and very much

involved in arklow trafficking this group which was several years ago thought to basically be done has really been growing in strength and that's also a threat to colombian stability especially in the border region with all of the dynamics taking place with that migration and the insecurity along there peter you have the leadership of the fork wishes saying basically the government is backtracking on the promises he's made in the past duke is braced to become next president he seems to be willing to pursue a very aggressive journey and could be very skeptical about what could happen in the near future is colombia moving towards further violence and instability. well i think that first the peace treaty was an enormous step forward whether you

agree with the details of the peace treaty or not. i think one has to recognize and i think whoever is president the colombia has to recognize that they have to now operate within a within the peace treaty in other words it would be absolutely nuts sort of break the treaty and. you know give the fark back their guns and let's start fighting again the peace treaty is an enormously big step and i think that the l.n. has no support in the country whatsoever. they're looked upon as a bunch of thugs and they can either accept than agreement more essentially that they will be. pushed further and further out and be destroyed. talking about the border and areas where the expectation is among the poor communities on high in terms of land reform infrastructure social development

programs where can the president the next president of colombia get enough funding and budgets to implement those programs that are seen as crucial for stability of the country. well colombia is a middle income country is not a poor country it's a matter of distribution but for a lot of these areas especially if we're talking about the pacific coast you really get a need to get at the issue of corruption as well because mismanagement corruption has gone a long way in getting rid of the budgets that were there and has led to state intervention in places like the choko and so forth so i think that transparency and corruption need to be the top of the agenda first before even start asking for more loans or even upping the budgets and then secondly i think there needs to be more

reaching out to the traditional authorities and that i mean the ethnic groups the african lumbee an indigenous groups they feel that they have never been part of any of these economies they feel that it's always been outsiders coming in and taking their resources and doing everything without taking them into account i think that there needs to be a negotiation like the one that took place during the peace agreement where you have an ethnic chapter that gives credibility to these authorities and brings them in and basically for the economic projects throughout these areas if you want them to succeed and if you really want to get buy in from those communities and. i'm innocent thank you very much indeed for your time and contribution to the program. and thank you too for sure you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website. dot com for further discussion goes our facebook page thus facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter that is

a j inside story for me has manuel and the whole team here by phone now. unpack it for us what were you hearing what were you seeing whether on line horrendous things. or if you join us on the set of the major countries in the commonwealth how far bigger fish to fry and chips to eat this is a dialogue about some of this success if perhaps everyone has a voice what happens when the robots them so are making to.