hello welcome to the show i am sam is a than i joke ty about the wind has dominated turkey's political scene for the past sixteen years and he looks set to continue for many more to come his reelection on sunday makes him turkey's first executive president well that means he has new expanded powers because of changes to the constitution approved in last year's referendum his main opposition rival accepts the result but how to enjoy says the election was unfair he warns or the ones one man rule is a danger the turks will how will the balance of power change we'll talk to our guests in a moment but first of all reports from the capital ankara. yet

again richard taber erdogan is victorious this success however will taste a lot sweeter for the man who's now won more than ten successive national polls since his ak party came to power in two thousand and two sunday's vote was a gamble by early one who hold for the early elections at a time when turkey's currency was at the weakest it's been in years but it seems to have paid off for the man whose name has now become almost synonymous with that of his country addressing his supporters around describe sunday as a victory for all of turkey. the winners of this election are the eighty one million turkish citizens of this country each and every one is a winner in this election everybody exercised their rights by going to the ballot boxes and casting their votes and i want to thank everybody you are writing history going into the vote it seemed that the galvanized opposition could prevent iran from winning in the first round forcing a runoff that could possibly pull. as

a bigger threat to his quest to become the first president under the new constitution the main content democrat am in jail of the c.h.p. had tried to garner support from all sections of society he would the religious basis by public you joining prayers in some cities and attempted to reach out to the right wing blocs by promising to expel millions of syrian refugees if elected but as large as injuries crowds were or those of erdogan in the end what mattered were the numbers of ballots cost in their favor turks were have a proud tradition of high voter turnout did not disappoint early indications were that more than eighty six percent of them participated while our two ones our party reply ends with a presidential victory there will be disappointment over their parliamentary performance with the a k p losing the two thirds supermajority they once held only managing to secure a simple majority with the help of their nationalist m h p allies the big winners in the parliamentary votes were the kurdish h d p winning over fifty seats making

this new legislative body more diverse than the previous one and it's that who it is i'm that many in turkey will hope can help bridge the political divide that continues to affect turkish society speaking to the nation i don't seem to understand those concerns. we're here. no one should be discriminated against in this country because of their belief because of their gender or because of their origins we will not allow this. the opposition will be disappointed that they were unable to at least force a second round of voting they will take heart however from their improved performance in the parliament and the fact that a relatively unknown person like i was able to secure thirty percent in such an important election with. not only one ticket. politician and. i becoming the first ever. you.

have to believe in the. right. to become. rich in history no one. will be telling the current. political economic. i'm coming. or the new executive powers for the president meaning now appoints the cabinet half of the abolition of the post of prime minister and the yet to be determined number of vice presidents will be chosen the president will be able to issue decrees as well as appoint all remove government ministers civil servants even judges all without parliament's approval all the parliamentary business such as drafting the state budget is also in the hands of the president he can dissolve parliament triggering early presidential elections declare

a state of emergency for up to six months without cabinet approval and under the new constitution can run for another term effectively staying in power until twenty twenty eight. let's bring in our guest now joining us from istanbul is n.-s. biologically is a professor of international relations at the turkish german university from new york fellow at the century foundation focusing on turkey's foreign policy in the middle east and from london by skype is a gay said skin a turkey specialist for i guess marketed data and information company that provides country risk analysis warm welcome to all if i could start with egg it didn't go to a second round as expected what does that say about public sentiment and confidence well let me begin by saying this in this election we saw the same or pattern in the voting behavior of turkish voters which we have seen in the past elections

and referenda and that is people are voting based on their identities rather than policy preferences. rather than the manifestos and the pledges of the competing parties. and are dawn's advantage in this. political landscape is the fact that his identity group is simply the demographically dominant one in the country but. there was a time when our party had a lot more support in elections it had what two thirds of the parliament seats something must have happened here other than simply people doing exactly what they've done before in elections right very much so it's so good that's the continuation of the same pattern i'll be it some changes here and there but the fundamentals are the same and the change is for example we saw the seven percent drop and vote. since the last election and that could be an interpreter for example

as they keep these voters. punishing their party for certain things which they're not happy about but those votes did not translate into less support for no one for example which is crucial. as a presidential candidate he got a very high votes and i think this indicates the continuation of the same or voting behavior and the opposition of this a month edge in this picture is the fact that they are divided. if we were to simplify the picture have the seculars on the one hand and the left this curbs on the other who don't necessarily see eye to eye and let me of course and for size that's a big central simplification all right let me bring n.-s. into the discussion so it was a bit of identity politics as eg do you think for those turks who support the one the election was a bit about their desire not to see conservative turks anatolian turks whatever you

want to call them pushed back into the shadows by the you know the secular elite so to speak in some of the cities that used to rule turkey. i think. the opposition especially the opposition candidate he was able to consolidate his own party on electorate but he was not really able to convince the. kondratieff waters in the country because of the also the simply because of the historical baggage of the c.h.b. the republican people party because the republican people party people supported does not have really a good reputation among the conservative waters plus the also the candidate for the presidency m r i mean he has also in the past many statements for instance against the headscarf the listing of the headscarf one just through three years ago and suddenly when he was nominated he start to make promises that he is not he

doesn't have any issue with the headscarf. in turkey that pickett people might use it whenever they want it but this was not really common thing for people for what they were right for the deposit is going on we can say that the. yes but at the same time at the same time turkish waters are not only wanting to. be here is not only based on the identity politics at the same time they are also looking at the real issues so why one has so much support in the population it's not just about. identity politics but he has a pull he's a politician who has delivered concrete. policies concrete delap and indeed in the country in the past if you look at his political background starting from one thousand nine hundred four so people has. saw that he

has the lowered his promises there were there was a huge there were the moment in the country starting point to two thousand and two and that's one of the issues on the other hand also people are looking at the promises author of the opposition and they don't see much concret. promises but more like ok of course that are they they are they have an abstract policy promises and that was not really corny thing for people but at this clearly does seem to me that seven a party proved a result let me if i may bring in selim and say the economy. has improved over the last more than a decade of our party rule but for those opposed to other one do you think they fear that the coming period is going to spill one man rule and erosion of democracy sonny before i answer your question i would like to correct the record on a bunch of stuff that's been said by my colleagues first of all i do partly agree

with i guess point about identity politics but we should not lose sight of the bigger picture here this is a snack election that was held within six weeks almost vis was forced to deny matter luck shannara party the right to participate in the elections you should. remember how the opposition scrambles to find their way to bring auctioneer into the elections so we need to understand the bigger picture here the opposition is facing a sixteen year incumbent this every resource off the state and a sixteen year incumbency at his disposal at. home with a talk about morals policy about the good polity what that didn't do as well as the people who party yes that didn't do as well it didn't turn out in the end those selling to be such a threat he didn't even manage to secure. you know second place it's the seven it's a seven percent is not a negligible percentage when you think about it that's several million people you

need to think about the larger numbers here this spite the sixteen year incumbency and a massive effort to create a new generation of conservative pro-government voters especially among the youth in the new election of it over fifty one every million votes cast. roughly half a million so this is not this is a victory obviously present our dawn has won and i would like to extend my congratulations to him and his party but at the same time we should not think that this is a major defeat this is a david versus goliath fight there is something in particular i would like to point out and made a point about the headscarf issue. is sister who appeared in numerous campaign rallies is varying the headscarf his mother is varying the headscarf so making this about conservative versus secular doesn't necessarily fly in that way unless you're

making the claim that my heart i mean geez also and then me of his own sister who appeared at his campaign rallies you need to see the larger picture as i said before. it's given us a chance to kind of come back to celine go go ahead and as briefly and this sort of . i'm sorry but that doesn't mean anything i mean if he is i mean wife or mother or sister is being and has a car in the past also terminus and it's in turkey they use this kind of this where they said look my mother is also being a headscarf my mother knits governing is to run and i am and you know the use of rights covers a political symbol and this kind of rhetoric we have heard also i mean i love what i am i can only look at is the concrete policies there are bad in this country which is amusing majority country and act party was only able to lift this just two or three years ago our let's allow sounds like until we have all or i'm not you made your private life let looking at the policies fair enough let's bring in

psyllium again continue the thought for us i mean i would like to make another point why are only a few days before the election. sure of course it's we're having a conversation. a few days before the election the programme one of the pro-government think tanks seta published a poli sci brief accusing main opposition party voters more images voters off being in cahoots vs fed to luckier than the ally turned enemy by the believed to have been responsible for the failed quit temptin twenty sixteen and on the kurdish terrorist leader who is organization killed an estimated thirty five thousand people so let's not pretend that this was an election fought on a very level playing field and this was only about the conservative versus the secular is a some equal competition that the opposition has lost i'm not trying to be our

loser here do your position verb hard they need to work harder today the president are doing on one hand that ring in the end of it let's bring in a time that sort of sentiment we're hearing right now from sodium is not an unusual one that you hear from the opposition right now and they've conceded the one has one i'm wondering will there be an attempt to try and challenge the result in any way going forward. at the beginning. yesterday night we saw the opposition party the republican people's party b initially made an announcement saying that according to their figures the election was actually proceeding to the second round after that there was radio silence until today and we saw the candidate martin injured concede his the seat so i think a challenge is unlikely the results are distributed by the state run

media agency another large amounts are are largely in line with those collected by alternative sources however dispose not mean of course even if the vote was accurate this does not of course mean that the lead up to that vote was free and fair forget of course and i agree with salient on this the conditions of the state of emergency the expense of media coverage which the incumbent president for the able to get relative to his opponents these are undeniable ok let's bring in our if we can hang on i'll come back to that in a minute and it's that story again but i want to go back to and this and say one of the surprises perhaps of this election was the amount of support which the n.h. he got the m h p policy of course is an ally to the our party but now that there parliamentary majority is thanks to the support from the m h p i'm wondering

if you think the governor is going to have to be a lot more sensitive to the desires of the m h p going forward. i think especially for the parliament in the parliament when the government or the they want to pass the laws they will have to they have to collaborate with the m.h.d. but i think m.h.d. and our party is in an alliance for a quite long time so in a dr alliance and these has happened after especially to quit i'm interested in two thousand and sixteen by the glenister terror group so after that many things have changed in turkey and that the threat perception has changed and because of these they're destroying alliance and the movies it's about survival and that's why there is this strong alliance so i tell him well how how important causing a holiday and ari's politics how important is parliament to top down the presidential system. of the one can issue executive rules county yes

yes the president can issue executive orders but of course there is a there is a there's a limit for executive order so the president cannot rule the country without passing the laws also there is a big budget issue which has to be approved by the parliament so the parliament is there and there has to be collaboration in the parliament between our party and m.h.d. and i think it will happen and that will also i think shaped the torch politics in the next decade i think so that's not on a temporarily less a temporary equality between our party and image b. and that's also already shaping the torch baltics in the last three years and also i had at that this the identity issue identity politics the seven percent of our party waters probably majority of them have water for the image be because they were somehow not happy with their party in the first place but also they want to also. it was a kind of gesture towards m.h.z.

and its attitude after the queer term and their support for the party idea for many . people felt that they have to also. support image b. and the second issue is and other issues with this. i mean the one after i guess the measure of the. analysis i mean the fetter if we really understand what photo is above i mean a photo is about infiltration hiding your on what use. is about deception and the fetter is still today trying to influence torch baltics and they were ok a lot of. time is getting short. no i don't think the do so.