economy does not lead to economic benefit it might protect some jobs but it will lose far more jobs in the medium to long term it might protect some small portion of the american industrial base but a larger part of the american industrial base whether it's automotive whether it's steel whether it's services that base will be eroded and that base will suffer losses if not sooner that at some point during the trumpet ministrations first term or at the see what's what for the grain has to say for economic advisor to the president of the european commission for the trumpets of the tariffs on china are aimed at stopping the unfair transfers of american technology and intellectual property to china and about protecting jobs given what you've you've just heard there is trump going to protect u.s. jobs by starting a trade war with china and of course he's not he may protect a few jobs in a few protected industries but overall protectionism is going to cost more american

jobs than it creates and you can see that already with the steel tariffs which have been imposed hardly any americans work in steel production and millions and millions work in industries that you steel of course everyone loses out from paying more not just for steel but every product that contains steel i think what's really striking about this and you and your earlier report the star alluded to it this is actually much much bigger than just a trade war of which there have been others in the past donald trump seems intent on blowing out the international trading system and indeed the broader international order and. united states has gone from being a enlighten him on underpinning the rules that provide stability and predictability to others to a rogue state that is such that blowing up the system i think it's a very very worrying about mint and the repercussions are much broader than so simply but the narrow economic ones of people meeting. coming last do you agree

with that pretty low going in hong kong is the us now a rogue state where the implications of of of the us withdrawing from w t o rules and norms for example i think there has been far too much so this just of the dollars and cents the trade despite i think this growing and there could perceptions of china not just as a rule spending competitor in children commas but as an all run strict and that is what i believe is underpinning that the fight and the poor are that china is now an all round stat. not just in trade and this does but in political domination in military aspects in technology suddenly there's the perception of china being a real huge threat so it's more than just trade it's it's this fear this this tour of and an ice age of relations if you like with china that i think

will continue. so for the trumpet ministration pauline this is about as far as you're concerned containing a rising china yes it is and remember that. this has the support bilateral supporting congress in one of the lizard bills about chinese investment in the united states it was passed four hundred to two i've read that that's you know it out bipartisan support so it is a perception of china as a threat this is more than just dollars and cents who gets you know to to win more in this trade or that trader who gets to import export more this is a much broader conflicts scott lucas is the u.s. a rogue state is it trying to destroy the global system of rules and institutions and if so why. i don't think the u.s.

is a rogue state because i think american economic institutions many american political institutions want to maintain international order but donald trump and his inner circle are roque's they are the ones who have a particular vision which is that there is no need for international cooperation and a that international cooperation is a threat and let me explain that by going beyond what pauline just said i agree with her that key trump advisers see the fight with china as being foremost that includes former advisers like steve bannon the white house chief of staff but two things one is is that donald trump can hold that idea of china as a threat while quite liking the chinese leaders nation paying because he had myers strength and secondly this war and it is a trade war was not just with china it is with the european union truck doesn't believe there should be a european union it is with canada and mexico trump doesn't believe there should be a north american free trade area it is with the pacific no trans-pacific

partnership in other words the united states is not america first here it is trumps america alone against everyone else and that is a rogue approach that can cause nothing but harm to america and other countries as well so what are the implications good of all of this for other institutions that came into being at the end of the second will bretton woods institutions need to. this is the greatest crisis since one thousand nine hundred five let's just say this point blank is greater than the crises we faced over the duration of the cold war it is certainly greater than the post cold war challenges that we faced because every institution political economic social is under threat you refer to nato for example in a few days' time donald trump will go to the nato summit having said that nato is obsolete having said it privately a couple weeks ago to european leaders that he thinks nato should go the way of nafta the north american free trade agreement they should be dismissed and that

within a couple days after that he replaces that international meeting that challenge the nato with what donald trump really admires which is a one on some with one on one summit with a lot of reports in of russia in other words for trump and his advisors you really are talking about the idea that there are thora tarion allegiance that lead countries and that's where power resides they can live with putin's russia they can live with kim's north korea they can live with erda once turkey because they can work with them individually rather than having these messy international institutions that are supposedly ripping america off so that the grain how do you respond to that is this the greatest crisis since one thousand nine hundred five forced to be done. i think it is the biggest challenge to the liberal order since its creation in the years after the second world war there been previous spots over defense issues for example over iraq there have been previous trade just repeats

there's never been a u.s. president who has disdain for his allies in the european union and in nato more generally there's never been a u.s. president has set out to destroy the international institutions that america created and there's never been a u.s. president who has declared trade war on all and sundry at the same time and i think it's a very worrying moment indeed now for the european perspective this could go one of two ways one might succeed in is a of course of the disintegration of the european union and certainly he has allies within the e.u. who have a similar agenda for example. l.v. the head of the league which is now in government in italy or indeed the prime minister's opponent or hungary. the other alternative is that the threat of donald

trump could lead to closer integration within the e.u. that's the agenda of french president michel it's an agenda that is shared in a more leap forward basis from german chancellor angela merkel and needs must potentially this could this this could lead to a big leap forward in european integration in terms of taking great responsibility for its own defense and indeed as we're already seeing pursuing a much more vigorous trade policy that goes around the united states but you know by by concluding also the trade deals with different countries with donald trump saying things. like he said in north dakota last week that the european union was set up to take advantage of the united states we can't let that happen he said. i mean is that likely to drive more european integration drive european states closer together that kind of language. well first of all it's factually untrue the the

predecessor the the whole european integration project was supported by all previous u.s. presidents because they thought that it was a way of creating peace stability and prosperity first in western europe and then in europe as a whole remember that you know this emerged as a peace project after the devastation of the second world war and during. the cold war so that that's fashing correct now he's going to do his best to drive europeans apart whether it's by playing divided rule by currying favor with his ally populists authoritarian far right allies. he's clearly set out a trade war that's going to hit europe as well as china he's undermining and potentially going to even pull out of nato and so yes it's an existential challenge for europe and for the global system and europe has to rise to the occasion pauline what's your take on this america may be in the view of

a scholar and philip was agreeing him a with him a rogue state but donald trump is a democratically elected president what's to be done about this well basically. the potential good news is that in the american democracy the president is elected for his for yes and. maybe he won't squeeze the president of the united states either in the next election. the thing that is that. is the perception right now that trump is the united states look or see this because he is the president but he is the united states fully the full use of research so. there may be people in the year in japan and canada says yes flipping

to react and we're going to deal with whatever he's shows it does but let's not go all the way let's take a look you know in another couple of years what's going to happen are the americans still going to be gung ho after an american america first america alone president or they can just say chickie was recorded all wrong so i think that right now while all different various governments state the trying to whether it's the. the canadians or the e.u. or japan they're likely to be very grown up about this and say yes we're going to react to specific cities that the trumpet ministration is certainly does but let's not go sort of let's not hyperventilate just. go but. do you agree with that who does it matter if the rest of the world takes a grown up approach to what donald trump is doing. oh absolutely i mean this

we're talking about economics here but it matters on the environment it matters on social issues it matters on basic rights but i let me tell you pick up on what philip such as i agree and want to extend that and that is from the challenge that we face there are opportunities and in the case of europe it is whether the e.u. which is facing the dual threat of troponin of bright is that britain whether it really gets its act in order in terms of economic arrangements social arrangements even mutual defense the chinese right now will already be planning they'll be facing trump and they'll be planning for how do we deal with an international system where the americans are in a sense off to the side and they'll be making arrangements in asia for example other countries will be looking to develop a transpacific partnership or will be looking to develop international institutions while treating the americans almost as

a case which is in suspension that's not optimal it would be better if the americans are inside the international system but i think what you have is in the next twelve months twenty four months before trump goes in this is where i was slightly differ with polly these questions will be faced as core questions in which other countries no longer see it as a question of following the us lead but having to make their own arrangements and not be dependent on american involvement for those arrangements to work for that the surprising thing i think is has been known how easy it's been for trump to attack these alliances and institutions that have been around since the the end of the second world will but just how fragile they seem now that they are under attack do you agree with that. oh sure these institutions were underpinned by u.s. power you know underpinning the system of water natural rules was the fact that the

dominant power in the world in its headlight and self-interest was underpinning them and obviously if that dominant power. decides otherwise then everything starts to fall apart now what's quite striking is that you know the united states is a is a declining one it's threatened by the rise of china and indeed other emerging powers and normally what happens in situations like that is that the declining heaven on tries to preserve the international system it created in order to preserve its status and preserve its power prosperity and instead of that you see the rising power which is china's actually working on most of the system that exists and the declining on the united states saying actually want to blow it up now trump says well that's because the old system was rigged against us and we're going to create a new one by bilaterally acting tough and excluding better concessions out of others the reality is that actually it's he's blowing up american prosperity and

blowing up american power and even if donald trump is active from office in twenty twenty five u.s. voters he'll have done so much damage that it would be very hard for future u.s. presidents in different circumstances to be to rebuild what he's demolished pauline very briefly could could these alliances in this situation survive long enough to outlive trump's presidency you sounded a note of optimism a few moments ago well yes in the sense that if the press did see does its. if he doesn't go for another term yes you know ok we'll write it off us as four years of my step somehow just descended into the united states but the bigger problem here is that it's not just trump seems to be a sea change in a political reaction to global isolation to free trade that was once considered you

know it's the most wonderful thing no one ever questions it but look at brits it look at the fact that one in two voters voted for trout is a reaction to globalization maybe but we get up this is the right way wants. a demand at grassroots we want something more than just the globalization the free trade that has been you know the status quo for the past ten years whatever scolding men don't know what they want but i think there is change picking up from what pauline was saying you know what what if what if trump does get elected of course there are midterms in the us in november. how's that how the midterms actually impacted upon trump's behavior. right now i mean does it go to some way to explaining what he's doing right now is he got one one eye on the midterms. oh it's absolutely essential not just for trump but for the

key campaign advisers against steven miller and that is because they see two issues his be key to running to hold the congress in republican hands in november one is the idea of trades and tariffs america showing its dominance over others and two on the home front the get tough zero tolerance policy on immigration that has split up families and put children in detention their gamble is those that anough americans like that macho alpha male approach no matter how much damage it causes that the republicans will actually hold on to congress and trump can look forward to a second term if they're right and if the republicans do succeed in november then we are in for turmoil for quite a while if however they're wrong and the voters actually turn against the republicans then i think that will force a reassessment sooner rather than later and we may get out of this not unscathed but at least with less damage than what i'm feeling at this point and i'm afraid we

must leave it but he thinks indeed scott lucas fessor of international politics at the university of birmingham philip mcgrane from an economic advisor to the president of the european commission and party lew managing director of asia analytic a thank you for being with us and thank you for watching don't forget you can see the program at any time just by going to the website at and zero dot com for further discussion join us at our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story and you can join the conversation on twitter handle at a.j. inside story for me adrian finnegan and the whole team here and thanks for watching we'll see you again bye for the. every weekly news cycle brings a series of breaking stories but it was more trumpton out on the board told through the eyes of the world's journalists the images matter a lot of international politics joining the listening post as we turn the cameras

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