opec meeting in jury a we are joined from london to keene an independent oil and energy consultant and former opec official in moscow true to him an oil and gas analyst and part energy consulting agency and also to is sami hamdi a middle east analyst and editor of the magazine international interest gentlemen welcome to the program sami let me start with you does trump have a point when he says that middle eastern countries are pushing the prices higher and higher. i think we have to remember what caused a lot of the chaos in recent years in the middle east in terms of economic diversification some of the grand moves that saudi arabia the u.a.e. and other arab countries have taken it was the low or prices until all prices saudi arabia saw no need to engage in economic diversification or indeed to pursue vision twenty thirty or the neon cities or the like was even more ironic is that the lower

prices was caused by the u.s. shale industry which seemed to put more and more oil in the market driving the prices down and saudi arabia actually started fighting the u.s. trying to outdo the u.s. by flooding the market with oil to bring the price so low that shale couldn't could would not be feasible so i think with regards to donald trump about whether they want to bring the prices up this is very true the opec countries all of them they benefit from a high price let's remember why venezuela is a failed state today it's a failed state because the low all prices set the economy crushing high oil prices gives reprieve for a lot of these countries these opec countries who are suffering from the economic difficulties as a result of years of relying on oil so in other words when oil prices start going back up these opec countries find that they have more revenue they have more money in order to enact infrastructure projects or the like within their particular countries so in short what's particularly ironic is that the u.s. which forced a lot of these countries to bend over backwards as

a result of the law oil prices as a result of the shale oil industry is now demanding that the opec countries bring the oil prices back down once more and to suffer further as a result of donald trump being scared of what might happen in the midterm elections so manno share now pick countries and non opec countries are meeting tomorrow in algeria what do you think is going to happen here what will be the focus of the conversation. well let me say that tomorrow is the joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting is not the whole hold the ministers of opec countries and then all think we should have joined together in the last two years i think is russia and other non opec countries and then saudi arabia. and kuwait and so on letting them there no emergency ones out there really is there. yes there are there job as i'm saying that they are not supposed to decide on what

to do they are a technical group not as the same are and market monitoring committee to look at the information that the technical analysts and technical group within opec and on opec have given them and look at it examine it consult with each others look at the supply demand balance in the world oil market their daily business people and then also for see what then the next five six months would be the performance of the global economy is going to be a boom bust recession which of course would affect the demand for oil and then to supply of oil from the united states and others that technical people have tried to estimate for the next few months and out of that they will see how much is the demand for opec as a whole and for opening not all big groups that are part of this joint operation which have limited their supply that is their job of course having done all this and discussed with each other consulted their acts on the seas with each other then

of course they have to look at the political aspects the one that you made an introduction already so i want to said they do and make a decision they try to summarize and brief the full ministerial conference of opec which is to meet the affairs of december but of course their ideas and comit comments would influence what the other ministers would do and so we cannot discuss what these people might inside or might prefer there might be comment but let's see it is not they would not decide on an actual policy that opec would follow it and misread what russia's role in all of this i mean over the past few years relationship between moscow and riyadh have gone grown closer days talk at maybe these two countries together trying to fill at the gap that will be left because of the iran sanctions. oh well russia's role is very

specific basically when the russia agreed to decrease production it was against the benchmark of october twenty sixth eon when the rest of the oil production peaked for some domestic reason and after that it fell down to their regular level. again and i saluted that surely the russian minister of weather just said it was carrying out the promise it gave to opec basically russian oil companies are producing at the maximum of their capacity and they're not prepared to increase production to accommodate to the wishes of saudi arabia or president romp or anyone else in essentially the next year or maybe a year from no rational production is going to start to decline and it has already peaked the decline will be caused by the deterioration over oil reserves

which of the majority of oil rich remains are still in russia the seventy percent of that is hard to recover and it is difficult to produce of this oil at the current the level of prices a so please do not expect that russia is going to increase oil production on the contrary it is going to decrease it so i have a semi right or in view of that it seems that the onus would fall again on the gulf countries saudi arabia u.a.e. now what would be them mood considering this treat of donald trump who basically said you guys are safe because we keep you safe i'm sure they're not very happy about that. we have to remember that saudi arabia and the u.a.e. don't actually want to increase production saudi arabia has been giving lip service to donald trump until now this is not the first time that donald trump has our

saudi arabia to increase production there was a tweet a few months ago where he said that saudi arabia had promised and then that tweet was removed later on or he went back on that particular tweet saudi arabia does not want the prices to go down why because the investment that they expected in vision twenty thirty the aramco valuation that they had was not what they expected the amount of money that they expected to come into saudi arabia from these various economic projects has not matched their expectations so in other words the higher the oil price comes the more of a buffer the more of a cushion that they have in order to come up with a new plan in order to assess this situation how to come up with a better solution the problem is that trump is applying very heavy pressure on saudi arabia although the south there's this view that saudi arabia and trump are very very close allies we need to remember that trump flipflops based on how much money comes into the u.s. so for example initially he supported the qatar blockade and then in april this year he invited the emir of qatar to washington and then sent his advisors today of

to put pressure on them to stop the blockade so in other words trump is flip flopping and the saudis know that when trunk threatens them a threat threatens to lift the support that he's been giving them they know that he's particularly serious saudi arabia will go to the opec countries but the opec countries know that saudi arabia deep down does not want the oil prices to go down either so they'd be very interesting because now it's a matter of sovereignty is saudi arabia really a puppet state to the extent that they will have the nerve to go to the other opec countries out of the guys look we need trump so you guys need to increase production and bring the lawyer prices down it would be absolutely incredible by all standards for side really to sit and look at opec countries in the face and tell them that trump told me to bring the prices down so we have to bring the prices down even though it is saudi arabia that will be taking the hit so i. it's quite profound the way in which trump has caused discovery in the opec countries all because he is suffering or potentially suffering from the midterm elections

where by his base are the ones who are becoming very much affected by increase all prices that they were meant to share you know opaque from the inside very well now we have a situation where at the heart of all of this is obviously the illumining. sanctions on iran and they will kick in just two days before demit term elections now so when everybody's in the room or even. at the moment you can hear statements coming out from all sides. saudi arabia according to jews sami is in a difficult position doesn't want to be seen as a puppet of the trump administration iran on the other side has a lot of veto power within opec and they say is actually putting saudi arabia under spot isn't it well i wouldn't put it that way you see there is so much being said as to political differences recent months between iran and saudi arabia that have been greater political differences between these could if different

countries with you know pick iran and iraq were at war with each other in one nine hundred eighty s. but i want to emphasize that these ministers one day yet to give their looking at the oil market they are really more concentrating as a business leaders and trying to understand their market and see for what is good for all of them to do of course there are priorities short term long term what do those are all i would say technical decision making and this is what would happen here as well but. sorry for interrupting going but when the iranian minister of oil ministers says i would block any opec decision that poses the slightest threat to iran how are we supposed to see this this understand. well is that a statement bashar made by ministers before they actually meet you know pick full of conference which would be under fairly of december. whenever there are levels

of prices being high to low the different ministers make a statement they usually less obviously but on occasions in the past they have made a statement so there is naturally the wish of iranian ministers and the iranian government is that when you know on is put in a corner and the united states and president trump and the u.s. department of treasury are blatantly and in and bullying way day till all the iranian oil customers those who buy oil from iran they threaten them that they should stop buying oil from you're on otherwise they would put this and that if they're operating in america they wouldn't do this or banking limitations etc this is a bullying tactic so obviously you know anya and people around and government are offset that a big power as sach is trying to act in this way very open minded using force

and so their reactions are that look we expect are there members of opec that we are in disjoint club we have been together for since one nine hundred sixty and so on to not to give in and try to also have accommodate iran and this is an obvious the amount but i'm sure even the iranian ministers and others day do agree as we had done in deposits that opec as a whole doesn't want the prices to go too high and of obviously too little they do to go under priced it without because they want to have good revenue as mr hamdi you just just mentioned they don't want to lose revenue but i want to say that it is not only one break in to pass in the history of opec that had been occasions that all because a group increased production to ag reed and increased. adduction to get the prices down under might they have no need to pass but on this occasion infortunate teaches mixed with these are retorting called statements and political pressure from the

united states and so on and so forth if you're going to bring in me from moscow you know you said earlier that russia cannot increase by its production by very much so day is supposedly going to be a gap of two million barrels how do you think it's going to be filled. well basically i do not think it will be russia that the that is going to feel in this gap russia for russia cooperation with the back is very important. to say well for several reasons first. because of the russian virtual a contribution to the joint effort not material contribution in the form of. holden production dahlan or increase in production but in the form of oral interventions decoded various declaw ration of solidarity and the sometimes russia

reports that it is changing the level of production to accommodate to production to the wishes of a pick but the basically it is not doing anything no the kind because the it is the companies of that determine how much oil they are per usin but it is very important . even orally because of the level of corporation is a factor to push the prices up and higher prices are very. unnecessary for the russian government because basically the oil companies in russia get very very little from high oil prices. we have a sliding scale of taxes and if they will price goes up it is the government of that takes this profit this incremental profit but not the companies they get just a very small proportion of the incremental value ok and sammy what i don't country

could step up as production is iraq able to do that for example. i think iraq is mired in its own issues a bus full of protests and that's the main oil city in iraq i think trump the reason he puts pressure on saudi arabia is because he wants the saudis to do it it was the saudis to be the ones to flood the market and from his perspective he says look i took iran out of the game i want you go you guys now can take the market share the saudis are not seeing it that way with regards to donald trump i think the oil is there that there is the capacity to fill those two million barrels if opec genuinely do decided to do so however the problem is opec are not necessarily happy with the treatment of iran they're not of the which they do the american treatment of iran they're not necessarily happy with the situation they've been made in whereby the usual diplomatic channels have not been respected so for example when donald trump takes to twitter and tells an opec i'm telling you before you meet you have to bring the prices down this is made it a bit a sort of

a humiliation for opec if it decides to go with what donald trump has said donald trump could have done what u.s. has done in the past send some diplomatic back channels to the various different governments let roula spread here know that maybe u.s. is applying pressure but the way the brazen way which trump has done it has evoked a lot of sympathy one for iran and its loss of its share of the market in terms of loss of its particular exports and also has made opec quite jittery it's not a united bloc anymore and there's a lot of antagonism between the various different countries particularly as they wrestle with one of the leading opec nations saudi arabia having to sit in front of them and tell them guys donald trump tell me to bring the oil prices down we have to do so i think with regards to fitting to two million barrels to summarize i think they'll find a way to do so if they have to but i don't think opec countries are at a stage yet whereby they want to follow the orders of donald trump so it's basically you're saying it's payback time for him to sound the. government there

now much money to share is it. if we look at opec you have you ok we have big iran that is not going produce to. news or in any more at least is not going to be treated in two nationally. you have saudi arabia that's under pressure and but then you have also a lot of problems of its will as not able to produce as much anymore libya i can produce one day yes one day no depending on what's happening the same is situation with nigeria so it's also does a lot of problems within opec itself and one i don't know but from the outside you get a feeling that the. there is a lot of fragility within opec at the moment because of political situations. well i again the say that there is in spite of all the politics that you are mentioning and the media portray with you know pick countries the member countries they sit together and discuss things as in

a business way and out of these political issues i come back to the question you asked me before i want to if you element two things that one is that the agony men in opec as a group are now together with nano pick is voluntary so they're all i agreed to do this because it is good for all of them it is no enforcement this is this is one thing and then coming back to the question of what countries can produce assuming that opec as a group decide to increase and i agree with h.r. that to increase supply then nominal figure which is in the press is to me dondero spared a spare for the auction capacity of saudi arabia that is smaller extent of a smaller quantity is apparently advaita ballistic i city in the united arab emirates and kuwait but one doesn't know that box and doesn't know so much it is a small their main keep there in that scenario would be saudi arabia which nominally has about two million everyone is talking about i want to mention this

point that this if it comes to the crunch that's on that area would like to would decide to increase it is not get anted that technically this is very cap s. if he can be brought on a stream quickly and on a stream and on without any problems to go up to meet on that especially of soft law from next week or next month into the water market without problem there is a great possibility that it may not be actually to me don't bury spirit is very capacity of a label to put the the key on to what it on and off and i'd tell you if you allow me it one experience between one nine hundred eighty in one thousand seven hundred eighty saw that it be a did produce almost ten million barrels per day in those years and for the following ten years the nominal figured everyone accepted in the press was that saudi arabia's oil production capacity was ten million barrel spending. and in one

thousand nine hundred august when saddam hussein forces entered the cold wait there war put an embargo and decided not to buy oil from kuwait and. iraq so five million better spent a day of oil was lost from the war market and saw that even decided in a crash very interesting program and put all the experienced engineers to try to increase production within next six months or so and they did the best they could the best technology the best engineering planning and so on and yet six months dated in eighty nine hundred ninety one they at least eight point five million barrels per day so they're not me no cap acidy which was ten at the time they were producing but five five and a half they thought zero or there would be five mean about respect to coming off of site that maybe ought to compensate for the loss of oil from a coal rate on iraq and yet it was eight point five and not ten million barrels per day so i have my view is that the extra spare capacity of nominated two may not

actually be available at maybe one point five or a second it will take some time to bring them the mothballed them and get all these wells which have been closed starting in producing all of the surface that said he has to get to get it and working it is not a bucket of sewage to put on and off this is on a technical issue that you have become just assume it will come but on the policy issue as we have discussed already the among the three of us here there is a question and seems to be that the saudis would not be observant and obeying what the americans are saying and most probably they would go along with the rest of the whole picture and not push for a higher production but again i said the decision would be on the third of december when the old meets not enough let me had briefly because they're reaching the end of the show a ten second answer what do you think is going to happen with iran's oil i mean it has all the surplus right on the.

russia said on several occasions that the iranian oil and to resell it on the global market but i do not believe it can be practical ok well this is certainly as my new sheriff said tomorrow's meeting is one step but the big decisions will be take taken in vienna at the end of the year so i just want to thank my guests for this show and we'll talk again very soon. keane and sami how do you think you very much and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our facebook page that facebook dot com forward slash inside story you can still join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a.j. story from the heart of the meat and the whole team here in doha by for now.

october on al jazeera. in a new season al-jazeera correspondent returns with more personal stories from our journalists from around the world. brazilians are getting ready for elections but the main presidential contender is barred from the polls as he serves time in jail for corruption. from the u.s. and beyond faultlines investigates the stories beyond the headlines after a three year delay afghanistan will finally hold its pollen and relection know what direction the country takes with

a new two part series the big picture examines the negative view of mama got these moves and the effects of his demise october on al-jazeera in an instant the shifting news cycle the listening post takes pools of questions the world's media exposing how the press operates and why certain stories take precedence while others are ignored the listening post on al-jazeera new yorkers are very receptive to algeria because it is such an international city they are very interested that global perspective that al-jazeera provides. under president trump finding asylum in the us has become harder than ever i am put in place a zero tolerance policy if you are modeling a child then away will prosecute you and that child might be separated from you thousands of families escaping violence at home now face separation detention and deportation as the u.s.

closes its doors no shelter announces iraq. this is al-jazeera. hello from doha everyone i'm kemal santamaria and this is the news hour from al-jazeera twenty nine people dead in a gun attack in southern iran in the tripper right to iran is pointing the finger at the u.s. and its allies in the region including israel also a survivors found in an airlock compartment in a ferry which sunken tanzania the death toll still rising at least two hundred and nine now and will bring kavanagh's accuser from top to a washington hearing decision time looms for the woman who says the supreme court pick attacked. and i'm far as molly here with all the day's sporting clearing alex

ferguson returns to old trafford for the first time since having brain surgery only to see his former side how to a drop by well. so at least twenty nine people have died in a gun attack in iran on a commemoration to remember the iran iraq war an iranian military spokesman says the attackers were trained by two gulf arab states didn't name them and said they were connected to the u.s. and israel has a report. chaos and panic in the city of los in southern iran as an unprecedented scene unfolds during a military parade. unidentified gunman opened fire year and prayed at the start of sacred defense week it commemorates iranians who died during the eight year war with iraq in the one nine hundred eighty s. . most of the victims were members of the revolutionary guards women and children

were also killed in the attack betty. joris i don't know because this man is asking why his four year old daughter had to die a revolutionary guard spokesman says four men dressed in khaki uniforms and riding motorbikes are connected to the al-a z a group which is supported by saudi arabia. all four suspects have been killed when they come to launch an attack like this the i.r.g.c. in southwest and iran in and out of a populated region can back me. up there has been and will and put out a plan in order to send a very strong message actually so there are elations to leave now and there are reasons to believe now that. this is a sack masterminded by the united states and the saudis especially because the attack hillary a solid terrorists of all that was the supported by this all these you know have

been recognized to been in charge of this attack the rare attack took place includes islam province which borders iraq and has the largest ethnic arab community in iran the province was a major battleground during the iran iraq war. the afros attack happened this president has on rouhani was delivering a speech at the main anniversary parade in town ron he immediately vowed a question response and order security forces to find who is behind the attack and in africa as the investigation continues into the major breach of security dosage of bari al jazeera. folds now. as a political scientist and visiting fellow at the brookings doha center he told us it's pretty difficult to know for sure who was behind the attack. it's difficult to say we cannot of course categorically dismiss isis claimed to have been the perpetrator of this attack ice's usually claims a lot of attacks also to show its strength on the other hand we have the iranian

security forces bringing. another group to be sponsored by the saudis to be behind the attacks and so it's difficult if you one has to be cautious and it is difficult to say because also to iran of course blames the usual suspects israel saudi arabia the united states being behind this attack as was the case last year when there was this to an attack in tehran against the. khomeini and also the iranian parliament so there is a lot of questions because in both the whens those were highly securitized events and nevertheless those attacks could occur so there are a lot of security related questions now divers have found a man alive in the tanzanian ferry that capsized two days ago just moments before it docked he is one of only forty one confirmed survivors the search does go on at least two hundred nine others drowned in lake victoria on thursday during a journey between two local ports tanzania's president is blaming overloading and

negligence for the disaster he has ordered police to arrest the boat. more for malcolm webb he's on the ugandan side of lake victoria. lake victoria lies across kenya tanzania and uganda all three countries have a lot of corruption poverty and poor regulation so a safety doesn't ways come. the regulations say that all passengers are meant to a little wear life jackets and we were given to ride in this boat over there not in very good condition often there's also not enough to go around and it's also very difficult for authorities to enforce these regulations across such a vast expanse of water but the lake is key for trade large boats like this one carry cargo this one runs regularly between kenya and tanzania. in an area where the road network good carrying things on trucks can be expensive

and slow through the waterways are important tend to get used right up to the end of their lives and see this blue one sitting lot decided in the water must have been built many decades ago and used for a long time before resting here in the large ferry behind it this boat went out of service several years ago after another boat accident it collided with another boat here in the lake the other boat sank several people drowned in that accident the boat that capsized in tanzania eyewitnesses say it had two or three hundred people on board it was only meant to have one hundred feet in these kinds of conditions that overloading is very common that's what causes so many of these fatal accidents and we will have more on the tragedy in tanzania a little later hoping to speak to someone a little closer to the disaster zone the campaign office of the maldives opposition candidate has been raided by police the evening before the election president of

your main has been in office since twenty thirteen is now seeking a second five year term in sunday's election most of his rivals are either in jail or in exile topless as are. its famous is a holiday on its destination popular with honey but in the run up to the presidential election of the day there are allegations by the opposition. and security crackdowns. they are going to be if. we take part in believing that i will support so. that we will be able to overcome that. despite the alleged intimidation opposition challenger ibrahim mohamed salah has been campaigning for votes president abdullah yemenis aiming for a second term declared a fifteen day state of emergency this year provoking concerns the country is sliding towards authoritarianism i would like to call it an undemocratic dictatorship now the current regime president whatever he was doing of course

it is like kind of authoritarian thing. but then what are you doing doing through you know. like he is changing the constitution amending the constitution. as well his going in. yemen has boosted the economy using cheap chinese loans for large infrastructure projects such as the chinese maltese friendship bridge opened last month after four years of construction. the apparent reliance on large chinese loans has raised concerns about china's increasing influence as the chinese buy with india for a say in the strategically situated indian ocean archipelago. topless which is era john abraham adjoin is little bit earlier a journalist for the news outlet the maldives independent it always has a heavy police presence in the capital mali. at the moment the police presence is high outside and as well as right outside. the flow building i saw in the.

building where the opposition candidate had his office but at the moment they have not tried to get ten and i just spoke to a lawyer from the opposition who told me that the police did not have. any kind of called for and to explain their presence and they have refused to let the. opposition know why. speaking about the mood in the country right now is just about three hours ago and we had the last campaign activated for the presidential polls and both. of the candidates had had in the capital and most of the supporters thousands joining but. what jubilant in both camps and the same confident the security presence around the capital has been heightened over the past two days for the election but there is no sign that in any other buildings

especially associated with political activity whether it's from the ruling party or the opposition but i would like to read that around four o'clock all over five hours ago the police actually sent out a tweet saying that they were conducting an operation to stop illegal.