it war will only bring misery i would know to bring solutions for those that we have be aided. by the present amnesty international calls the verdict shameful one that exposes behinds justice system as a complete farce it along with a coalition of human rights groups had also campaigned for the u.a.e. to release the activist ahmed monsoor but an appeals court in abu dhabi upheld a ten year jail sentence on monday months or two had spent time in prison in twenty eleven and accused of insulting the rulers by calling for democratic elections in the united arab emirates and this time he was charged with publishing what the government considers false information on social media as well as calling for another activist to be released these latest rulings highlight the dangers and difficulties activists face in the gulf region and are schapelle al-jazeera or i still ahead so on the program why the un backed truce hasn't stopped shelling in

the port city of the data plus. kids. like we make the russian rockets through defying president putin schools for tighter controls. how they were into winter now is the persistent problem in china and india is fall it's hard to see that by satellite but just take it this graze of pretty good idea of where e.t.s. there's no wind to move anything pressure is high temperatures are low single figures probably down to freezing over night for most places but there is activity further says so in hong kong for example the clouds going to increase it looks fairly wet by winds not rain spreading up the coast to some degree as well nothing much steering elsewhere in fact the breeze takes the rain down towards vietnam at

least. the going to find dry nothing else in india either apart from occasional snow showers running into the far north we've got still air so if a new delhi oh yes you max might be twenty one degrees bit further north it's colder than that and again the north of india is prone to mist persistent fog fortunately pollution at this time the even in the breeze for the sas there's precious little moving shower wise it's dry now in sri lanka as well we have of course seen quite a lot of activity or a lot of rain in levant recently and the latest a legacy is this cloud sweeping into novels and saudi arabia it might bring a shower too to northern side possibly to cuba might even come further south than that but it looks mostly dry. on counting the cost the economic factors to watch would be ringing in the new year why economists are predicting a rocky ride for the global economy and from china to the middle east find out why

and where storms could be brewing. counting the cost on the. welcome back a reminder of the top stories here on al-jazeera police a fired tear gas a demonstration is in sudan to try to disperse crowds as they demand the resignation of president omar bashir on the thirteenth consecutive day of protests . al-jazeera has obtained video footage showing saudi agents taking what suspected

to be the remains of jamal khashoggi to the house of the saudi consul general in istanbul in october. and courts in bahrain and the u.a.e. about held the prison sentences handed down to activists not bill regard an argument months both men who were appealing that jail terms were in prison for being critical of. u.s. democratic senator elizabeth warren has taken a major step towards joining the twenty twenty presidential race or i'm told supporters she's forming an exploratory committee that allows her to raise money and find the necessary stuff before formally launching her presidential bid she's also released a video promising to protect the middle class against the excesses of wall street's a thing that's likely to feature prominently in any of her. campaigns america's middle class is under attack how do we get here billionaires and big corporations decided they wanted more of the charge and they enlisted politicians to cut among.

the crippled unions so no one could stomach the way to turn the. dismantle the for the rules meant to keep us safe after the great depression and cut their own taxes so they paid less than their secretaries and janitors it's time to write the rules for the middle after wall street crashed our economy in two thousand and eight i left the classroom to go to washington and come from the broken system head on. his side as your castro joins us live now from washington d.c. so why don't you give us more about was elizabeth warren's message is likely to be to the american people shore so political analysts mostly would place her elizabeth warren just to the left of hillary clinton warren has been in office in congress for just under six years and in that relatively short time she has built a national reputation for herself as

a dog critic and reformer of wall street and back she says the reason she entered politics in the first place was because of that two thousand and eight stock market crash and you see that theme in full sized in this announcement video along with other liberal firebrands like gay marriage and the rights of minorities but her singular and main message that she is concentrating on is said waiting her success of reforming wall street and tackling the corruption there to what she says is the corruption in washington that's headed by none other than president trump who she has had no fear of criticizing during his administration felicity you heidi she's a big name she's a woman what are the chances of her winning the democratic candidate see who's she likely to be up against. well she has a very large field of possible contenders as many as thirty people weighing the possibility of throwing their hats in the ring and that may be one reason she decided to be the first to get ahead of the field in making this exploratory

committee announcement and she does face quite a few challengers with national names like herself in fact two of those challengers who will likely declare their candidacy are vice president joe biden former vice president joe biden and also senator bernie sanders who have the advantage of having run for president in the past so elizabeth warren in order to convince fellow democrats to make her their nominee has to convince them that she deserves to be this new face of the democratic party that has been reeling without a leader since obama left the presidency we know than a few days time the most diverse and most young class of incoming democratic freshmen will be sworn into office in congress and warren has to prove that she's a capable leader of them as well as the rest of the democratic coalition not to mention that if she becomes the party's nominee she has a chance of defeating donald trump and she's already run into some troubled waters

on that front she has been a criticized by trump with the rate this racial slur of pocahontas because of warren's claims of having native american d.n.a. ancestry and many of her supporters and critics have panned her decision to take a d.n.a. test and release the results saying that she took trump's bait and that she should have just ignored the criticism altogether and so for her to have a chance of winning the democratic nominee and going on to challenge trump in two thousand and twenty people are saying she has to be a little bit more politically deft on that front with the latest of washington thank you. bangladesh's prime minister shaker sina has rejected calls for a new vote after being declared the landslide winner in sunday's election the seventy one year old insisted the poll had been free and fair despite widespread allegations of vote rigging and that her conscience is clear her ruling awami league party and its allies won two hundred eighty eight seats in the three hundred

seat parliament securing hasina a fourth term in office the opposition alliance led by the bangladesh national party only managed to secure six seats they rejected the voters completely false ical and said they'd suffered harassment and intimidation at least eighteen people were killed in an election related violence to have a child really is following events for us in the capital dhaka. she sounded very i'll bet on friendly and i would say even conciliatory tone. it was supposed to be a teeth session with international observers and foreign correspondents and press out here. monitoring the election and then eventually she was friendly enough to take questions from some of the international observers as well as from some of the international press personnel present that she obviously sounds quite victorious sense and confident about the victory and she didn't reject any idea that there was any vote rigging are there was any kind of foul play in any of the centers or she

admitted that there might have been few isolated cases where replying to a question from another foreign media that they have a video of a particular. vote been snatched in a polling center she said it's probably from a previous marriage election and then. particular generally said no this is from this one she said well perhaps so but it is one feeling today and could have happened and then she went to said that look if there is any allegation definitely we'll look into it and the election commission will seriously look into this matter and investigate this matter the opposition in the democratic republic of congo say they will not accept the results of sunday's elections if the ruling party wins counting is one underway but it could be several days before the first results are announced the opposition say that all irregularities in fact the presidential and parliamentary elections president joseph kabila is stepping down off the seventeen

years in a peaceful transition of power in the country since it gained independence in one hundred sixty. people in the yemeni port city of her data say shelling is still going all despite a un backed truce and the fight has agreed to hand over control of her data to a local coast guard to be able seen by the un as part of a recent deal but the government backed by a saudi amorality coalition says that hasn't happened. reports in her data optimism however cautious it may have been has turned into confusion despite a un backed truce there are reports shelling is still going on some residents accuse her three rebels of failing to hand over control of the port city as they have promised to do as part of the recently signed agreement in sweden but how did the scene you know. the talks about handing over the port of her data is

a farce directed by the who the militias and with an international cover. on saturday video emerged showing some who the rebels who controlled the port for much of the almost four year conflict boarding trucks and departing according to the u.n. the who these have indeed pulled back. by the next day others said that was simply not the case because the rebels claim yesterday that the handed over to port but they have not done so they have not delivered anything. on monday however the rebels said it was violations by the saudi iraq to coalition it's putting the her data agreement at risk. we are adamant to continue to comply with what we have signed with the aim of a stablish ing long and just peace those who are attempting to cause a failure to the agreement are willing for the war to continue and the plight of the yemeni people to continue as part of the un supported agreement who the rebels

backed by iran and yemen's government supported by a coalition led by saudi arabia and the united arab emirates also agreed to uphold a cease fire in the city. aid workers had hoped humanitarian corridors could soon be opened and much needed aid might be delivered a scenario whose success relies on mutual trust and one whose achievement seems more difficult with each new accusation. and zero kuwait says it will reopen its embassy in damascus only if the arab league restores relations with syria you know else that comes off to kuwait deputy foreign minister was named in a lebanese newspaper listing financial supporters of the syrian government has denied the accusation calling is an insult by the u.a.e. and reopen that embassies in damascus last week a senator from donald trump's republican policy says the president has told him there will be a slowdown to the withdrawal of u.s. troops from syria senator lindsey graham met trump at the white house grant had

criticized the president's decision earlier this month to remove all two thousand u.s. troops from syria saying it could destabilize the region we still have some differences but i will tell you that the president is thinking long and hard about. syria to withdraw our forces but at the same time achieve our national security interests which are to make sure that isis is destroyed they never come back that our allies the kurds are protected and that iran doesn't become the big winner of our leaving and i feel pretty good about where we're headed russian rap music is becoming increasingly popular and increasingly controversial well for a string of arrests and cold sick cancellations president vladimir putin recently called for tighter control of rap music but he stopped short of demanding an outright ban or a chance reports from moscow on the precious some russian rap as a facing.

husky here's one of russia's most popular homegrown rappers his lyrics cover drugs violence and social dysfunction and recently he's been in trouble after all storage fees in a string of cities canceled his concerts husky responded with a car top performance outside a venue in krasnodar police dragged him away. and there are others in. the band i speak a more overtly political than hosty they've had shows canceled with or thorazine citing alleged suicidal themes and they were detained recently to from their russian tour i speak told us the pressure is misguided the more that. people listen to music the more people find out in bunkers lation and become angry with go around so it's untrue into two now is just me as well

as just make us believe that we're not alone evander allman known as the rapper face can see why some are comparing what's going on to the soviet repression of rock music in the early one nine hundred eighty s. . the situations are similar the past situation the current want to both terrifying it says that we are still a third world country without freedom of speech what's unclear at the moment is whether this is a centralized crackdown the federal security service here operating some sort of blacklist or whether it's more like local officials being a bit overzealous either way in excess of twenty five concepts are being canceled this year affecting more than ten different artists but this story has twists suggesting that in russia things are often more complicated than they seem just four days into his twelve day sentence for minor hooliganism huskey was unexpected and he released. margarita simonyan chief editor of state funded broadcaster r.t.

tweeted he must have supporters in the presidential administration and on state t.v. the man under western sanctions is the kremlin's chief propagandist jumps to the defense of russian rap dmitri caselli off said they're the children not only of black american hip hop culture but also of the early soviet poets bloody may makowski then taking many of us by surprise he started rapping mayakovsky verse and id on the audience passed through our steely study and that is a serious study some artists at least appear to have friends in high places rory chalons al-jazeera moscow or so in some parts of the world it is already twenty nineteen with spectacular firework displays in major cities saying in the new year . i well the first major display was in new zealand's largest city walk and where the three hundred twenty eight metre tall sky tower was lit up in front of files and

that new year revellers. two hours later it was the turn of sydney in australia to celebrate the new year with its biggest ever display from the famous bridge an estimated one of the half million people watching from the banks and interests of the harbor. and not to be outdone while these were the scenes of the north korean capital pyongyang their leader kim jong un is expected to give his annual address on new year's day outlining the priorities for his nation in twenty nineteen. and reminder of the top stories on al-jazeera police a fire tear gas at demonstrators in sudan to try to disperse crowds as they demand the resignation of president omar al bashir on the thirteenth consecutive day of protests there the president has refused to apologize for the political turmoil in

his country he's also condemned the recent protests against rising food and food prices the sheer blames the country's economic problems on years of international sanctions most of which have no end it. is have a morgan is in the capital khartoum and has more the president said that he was going to try to improve the economy he said that he was going to try to make things better for the for those people demonstrating but the people said that they've heard that before these but these promises are promises that have been repeated over and over again over the past twenty one years during president ahmed and bashir has ruled they said that the only thing they want is to see him step down and give a chance for an interim government for elections to be held but the president of that he's not going to be he's not going to step down and it's very hard for him to negotiate with the protesters they're not being backed by one single body the opposition has lent it support to those demonstrating they said that they feel like these people have legitimate reasons to be protesting. as iran has obtained video showing saudi agents taking what is suspected to be the remains of jamal khashoggi

to the house of the saudi consul general in istanbul the washington post columnist was killed soon after entering the saudi consulate in the city on october the second his remains have never been found bahrain's top court has rejected a final appeal by prominent activist now bill regard who was jailed for five years in february he was sentenced to criticizing saudi arabia's air strikes in yemen and accusing bahrain's prison authorities of torture meanwhile a court in the u.a.e. has also up held sides against the activists ahmed months are being critical of the government there the u.s. democratic senator elizabeth warren has taken a major step towards joining the twenty twenty presidential race to announcing she's forming an exploratory committee a move money the move will allow her to raise money and find the necessary stuff before formally launching a presidential bid ater or are those the latest headlines here on al-jazeera there's more news for you in about twenty five minutes time stay with us though

counting the cost is coming next. sammy's a than a welcome to counting the cost an al-jazeera your weekly look at the world of business and economics this week things to watch in two thousand and nineteen financial storms could be forming in the global economy find out why and where what's in store for economies and people living here in the old dependent middle east. plus a look at what economic collapse means for venezuelans in the new year. when

america's sneezes the world catches a cold so the saying goes when there's a perceived weakness in the world's biggest economy the ripple effect elsewhere now as we're headed into the new year global financial markets felt a chill all on concerns over the health of the u.s. economy the dow jones industrial average saw its worst christmas eve trading day in history even though economic fundamentals like g.d.p. are still pointing to the upside there's a cocktail of factors flashing a pessimistic message the u.s. government partial shutdown higher u.s. interest rates donald trump's tweets criticizing the central bank then there's the rumbling trade tensions with china which. grows. and that's where i started when i caught up with russell jones from llewellyn consulting is the year wrapped up i don't expect that to be any major retreat from the sort of

protectionism war mccance alist policies that the u.s. president is pursuing so any truce i think is likely to be only short lived and it really is a concern that over the next year or two we see the protectionist rhetoric and the protection is substance really be ratcheted up to a higher level it's one of the bigger risks for the global economy looking into the next twelve months or so we've got this of what happens on that the u.s. economy does still have its weak spots and that is giving some worry is the u.s. do you think heading towards a recession i think the u.s. is i'm what i call that unsustainable boom at the moment. we've had this very late cycle fiscal stimulus and that if you like is hothouse economic activity during the course of the last twelve months or so but that stimulus is going to start to fade

and the legacy of that stimulus is two very large deficits a very large budget deficit and a very large external deficit the tariffs that mr trump is imposing on imports will not change that fact the u.s. is consuming far more than it's producing and at the moment that means that the trade deficit will expand and in many ways the u.s. economy right now is looking similar to the way it did in the mid one nine hundred eighty s. during the period of reaganomics it was another era of twin deficits and it was another area that ended rather badly it was a period of extreme volatility in financial markets and also in policymaking so my concern is that the u.s. looks good for now but that the city. rationed over the course of the next year or so is going to deteriorate quite rapidly and potentially traumatically so the us is

heading for a fall it may not be imminent but it's coming at some stage what about china's debt and growth challenges where you think those are heading in two thousand and nineteen well china is in a very very difficult situation at the moment the economy is slowing down at an underlying level and at the same time we have a corporate sector which is still hugely indebted and we have issues of transparency around the economy this is generating a lot of uncertainty where foreign investors are concerned and of course on top of that we have the growing protectionist issues which it faces as a result of of u.s. trade policy so china is in a tough place. also in addition we have a number of underlying tensions in the chinese economy which have been around for a long time tensions between a capitalist economy and a communist government tensions between the economies economic growth and the

underlying environmental problems it has tensions between the rural areas and the urban areas tensions between the rich and the poor and at some stage my sense is that all of these issues are going to result in a crisis of some kind unfortunately i don't feel smart enough to tell you precisely when that's going to happen but when you have this number of issues coming together at the same time it is pretty clear that some juncture in the future the economy is going to get into trouble it's going to suffer some kind of traumatic experience policymakers also a finding it much harder in china to navigate their way through this series of issues that they're confronting sort of slamming their foot on the accelerator and then slamming their. on the break is an approach which has worked thus far but

there is a sense that it's generating. deteriorating returns it's just not as efficient approach in managing the economy as it has been in the past and that's another reason why i fear that some states they're going to get into trouble let's turn our attention to europe then from bragg's it to the protests facing the french president to i'm going to calls departure from germany a lot of political uncertainty how do you think that's going to impact the continent's economy in twenty nineteen well we're already seeing indicators of business confidence soften and soften quite significantly in the eurozone and there's no doubt that trade and politics are probably the two primary drivers of that suffering of confidence and i think the outlook is a little bit worrying the economy in europe is losing momentum and there's no sign that the sort of upsurge in populist politics is going to go away any time soon brics it is another issue it's probably going to be

a lot more damaging for the united kingdom it is for europe but nevertheless it is just one more consideration one will concern and i think beneath the surface as well with europe the fact is that the eurozone remains what i call a raw the hof by tentative a lot of its institutions are incomplete and my real concern is that when the or next recession does come round europe could once again see itself facing a sort of existential crisis very much along the lines that we saw between two thousand and ten and two thousand and thirteen is there any upside to all that we could perhaps take hope from for twenty nine t. well the good news is that the world economy is still expanding at the moment there's no doubt about that but you know underneath the surface all these issues will have to be addressed at some stage the risks are many. and various and i certainly take the view that markets at the moment haven't quite taken on board all

of those downside threats has been some adjustment since september also but the reason i think the potential for markets everywhere to fall further and i come back to this point that we are facing the great politicize ation ben bernanke a the former federal reserve chair called the period in the one nine hundred ninety s. and early two thousand is the great moderation this is the great politicize ation and it makes it extremely difficult to know what is going to happen in the world economy but what we do know from history it sounds like you know please in the next financial crisis if so when's it going to hit let us be ready for it then shall we but. i'm not smart enough to tell you when the next financial crisis is going to come but what i am i think clever enough or cognizant enough of history to know is that populism doesn't tend to end well what i know from my experience is that bad

policy leads to a bad outcome and in the context of populism we are going to be confronted i believe by a lot of bad policy choices a lot of nativism a lot of interventions which perhaps are necessary a lot of wrong turnings and i think that is again something which leaves us in a very dangerous very threatened situation all right thanks so much for your analysis on that russell jones there giving us his thoughts on the outlook for the year ahead well still to come on counting the cost microchip in employees is it ethical would you volunteer why some companies are already doing it. but first nearly two thousand venezuelans cross the border into peru every day and that's likely to continue into the new year after colombia peru now hosts more venezuelans trying to escape economic hardship than any other country but on the sanchez has been following their stories from the. when i find nothing

i mean is going to buy you has been selling coffee on the streets of lima since she arrived from venice willing november the thirty two year old is qualified in food quality control but she's afraid she'll get in trouble for trying to work in an industry she knows well she missed the october deadline to apply for a work permit by just a few weeks i'm afraid we came here to work legally and to be in the country legally i don't want to do anything against the law to do so so-called foreign police along with immigration officials are conducting inspections across the capital to ensure venus williams half the required permits to work out of the muzzle by the immigration chief. said the briefly detained some than a swell and for security reasons. sadly some people have committed crimes and that makes us sad because it affects the way peruvians see them and it also makes

peruvians afraid. of the immigration office and many are rushing to apply for work permits before yet another deadline december thirty first they do says it won't issue any more after that girl from there will try i haven't waited for the last minute but it's been very difficult because i still don't have a certificate from interpol. immigration authorities say they've increased the number of personnel and office hours to help these venezuelans get their paperwork done fast but they also say eighty five thousand venezuelans have missed their appointments and twenty thousand have not picked up their approved permits. six hundred thirty five thousand in a swim and snow living according to official estimates you know he. says she feels lucky that she crossed the border in time to work legally and also at work i pride in august they gave me a portly just now i don't know what will happen to those who get here after the situation in venezuela is

a tragedy officials say those wintered. tobar can only apply for asylum now but emily's kind of this doesn't guarantee a job you get that we've got it but that meant when i applied for asylum they gave me a paper that allows me to work but no one is accepting it as valid. on average two thousand in a sewer lines cross into every day they do and official say they will not issue work permits after december but for now they will keep the border open to those fleeing the deepening economic and political crisis back home our crude oil fell almost twenty five percent in two thousand and eighteen and for petro dependent economies here in the gulf that's not welcome news over the years to come government budgets may have to make some adjustments iran for example already feeling the pain after being hit by u.s. sanctions on its oil industry the latest government spending plan shows revenues are down sharply.