now from a record high in 2011 gold it seems has been in hibernation but as trade war starts damage global growth central banks begin cutting interest rates and the prospect of conflict is an ever present threat the precious metal is trading the a 6 year high and it's never really gone out of fashion with central banks jewelers and some of the world's biggest investors so what's going on well let's start with that record high in 2011 gold prices hit almost $1900.00 an ounce after the financial crisis although it slid to almost $1000.00 in 2016 now for the last 6 years it's been struggling to rise above $1350.00 an ounce but in the last month it made it to $1446.00 and could push higher the biggest holders of gold essential banks last year they increased the volume of their holdings to the highest level since the end of the gold standard nearly half

a century ago the united states has by far the biggest stockpile with an estimated $350000000000.00 but russia's holdings of quadrupled over the last decade the jewelry industry uses about 2000 tonnes of gold every year worth around $85000000000.00 but it's people in india that have believed to hold the most gold estimated to be worth around $1.00 trillion dollars so is that extra demand for gold or is this just investors seeking a safe haven to find out we're joined via skype by gavin wendt gavin is the founding director and senior resource analyst at sydney based mine life good to have you with us gavin so what's behind gold's recent rally well we've seen a number of factors that conspire exactly the right time. dr gold. there have been some. recent factors. i guess related to things in the last week

for example related to u.s. interest rate caps trade issues uncertain day with respect to britain and iran an ongoing economic council. but we can actually trace goals i guess. strong momentum. back to probably the g f c back in 2000 and night the tremendous amount of spending that went on in the wake of the g. 8 c. of around the world in terms of money printing by central banks and also they slashing interest rates to in some cases 0 levels or even negative levels in in the case of some of your pain countries and those factors have provided a very very strong macro picture to drive the gulp crossfire's so whilst we've seen a lot of action in the gold price over recent months and particularly now the last

6 months that the price going to very very high levels this is a storm that's been building probably for about the last 10 to 12 years that sometimes these things take a while to develop. and with starting to see the you know the real upside in the go price now eventually this week's rate cut by the fed do you expect to see further cuts in the future what a rate cuts a rate rises mean for the price of gold right cats are typically quite good positive full the gold price outlook that is because right cuts typically to a weakening in the u.s. dollar and a weaker u.s. dollar typically results in a stronger gulp process and device. so what we've seen in the wake of the the u.s. interest rate cut was markets. looked at the fake commentary and they examined

it and the fed was what they suggested in their common treatments that this was likely to be a one off right cut. they would likely to follow through with the right cuts and the market had been expecting that this would be just the 1st of a series of write cats throughout 2019 perhaps in calendar 2020. however what we've seen from the fed in the past is that they say one thing and they typically tend to do the to do the opposite and this is particularly been the case over the last 12 to 18 months if we go back to the same period in 2008 saying the fed was talking about likely right increases or at least keeping rates on hold. fast forward to around april the shia and there were a game saying that it was highly unlikely that it would to be any sorts of right caps i couldn't see any right cats for the foreseeable future here we are in july

august and they have they've cut rates so whilst they say that there is unlikely to be further right cats i think the economic circumstances in the united states will determine that they will be for the right cuts certainly president trump would very much like to see right cuts and i think that's what we're going to be looking at so i think there's going to be further impetus to the process with with likely rate cuts to come if not in the 2nd half of 2019 but i think pushing into 2020 or so given russia has been increasing its holdings what do you make of that russia in particular has been a very strong buyer of gold over recent years and so has china for that matter china has come out and actually said that it is buying more gold the key reason for central banks not only china and russia but other central banks around the world to

to purchase gold is that wanting to diversify their foreign reserves out of the u.s. dollar there is a few in financial markets that the u.s. dollar is significantly i valued. and as a result of that central banks starting to buy gold inning creasing volumes and particularly if we're likely to see further interest. caps then the direction of the u.s. dollar is going to be down i think if you look at the central banks around the world as a collective during 2018 which is the most recent data we have they bought about 576 tons of gold and that was the biggest annual purchase of gold by central banks since 2012 and what we're saying in terms of central bank purchases the shia led by russia is that $29.00 same as likely to outstrip coaches from last year

so that the trend in terms of central bank buying is definitely upwards and just briefly given what's what's the target price for gold. well i've recently revised upward my target price at the start of calendar 2019 i was looking at a trading range goal to explain 12503050 perhaps but given the likelihood of further write cats i'm probably going against the grain here in terms of what market perception is doubting what the fed will do i think there are just so many positive factors out there driving gold byman in terms of risk economic council and see the value a sham not get and the likelihood of right cuts that i've upgraded my price forecast for the next 12 months to between $34050.00 per ounce i think there's very strong upside and there's even the

potential for gold to go higher perhaps challenge that $1500.00. i think is a very strong confluence of events and i don't think there are any of those issues are going to be resolved any time soon kevin is pretty good to talk to your own counsel because many thanks indeed for being with us my pleasure now years of war and instability have damaged iraq's gas and oil infrastructure leaving it dependent upon energy imports despite having huge reserves but iraq wants to change that with help from big overseas investment as here as a summit in java reports from iraq. electricity is in high demand specially during the summer and power plants rely on gas most of it comes from fields like the basra gas field in the south and because it's associated gas with oil a single barrel provides both oil and gas but iraq doesn't produce enough gas for its power stations a 3rd of what it needs is imported from iran. in the 1980 s.

raining jets took out most of iraq's oil and gas infrastructure and the sanctions that followed saddam hussein's invasion of kuwait stalled any redevelopment. now iraq's economy is weak the us is an important ally and both saudi arabia and iran are its neighbors iranian gas is a burden on baghdad stretched budget and a loaded issue for domestic and regional politics prime minister other liberal maybe wants to make iraq energy independent his oil minister has already signed multibillion dollar deals with international companies such as honeywell eggs on and shell unfortunately because of the order were delayed and that's why really. and he was lagging behind now. we are concentrating on this and the possible use to burn more golf if that person 2 years 23 years ago well now we thought i think about 55. $45.00 i want to be realistic or the 5

years that i will be. there there are big. ok and this of course will lead to many advantages one of course a white in gaza for power generation that will definitely make. energy independent we don't need to import and of course and instead. you know. maintaining a gas field under $46.00 degrees is anything but easy but these iraqis are making sure that they continue to pump the gas which helps run their country besides the gas needed for electricity these gas fields also produce other types for domestic use and export 75 percent of the. l.p.g. come from this. the facility which is more than 25 years old that's why this section of the plant is being renovated it's electric instruments.

to do these upgrades requires major investment rox government says despite obstacles like corruption and an unstable region investors are coming to back that . the. gas is the primary resource in the southern region especially to generate electricity most of the old power plants were motive from liquid fuel operations to cast power plants as there was an urgent need for investment and to upgrade production as tensions escalate between us and iran iraq wants to diffuse so it can attract more companies to help achieve baghdad becoming energy independent. these engineers are practicing how to respond to an emergency involving the h 2 s. gas. they work at the central processing facility of the mage new an oil field in southern iraq what makes their operation unique is that after oil giant shell left iraqis took over and for the 1st time they were running oil and gas extraction on

their own. after shell pulled out and 2018 bus for oil company took charge with the same standards and criteria bus company in cooperation with other consulting companies also proved that it has the ability to manage much oil field despite the challenges that we face. one of those challenges a splitting from marshlands around the mage new and field this oil is below the nearly 5 metre high flood waters around the united mental risks mean new oil grids and real need to be elevated engineers say they have been able to reinforce dikes but one flooding could submerge their operation mage new means crazy in arabic some say the name is in reference to the large amount of oil in one location the reserves of an estimated 38000000000 barrels this field produces 240000 barrels a day and that capacity is expected to go up to 450000 in 3 years. the company says

it's able to find investors even when the world is moving towards alternative energy sources there is no and the risk for investment in iraq iraq is very respectful of government. and the company. even with a shortage in financing and 201-420-1520 extension 15 here are committed to pay back all the investor. cost our budget within the. time when they invest when they and the cost we return back their payment have to thema oh in the state. of their main. and their g.e. if you. want to fortify. the oil companies know that iraq is coming out of years of war the recent crisis in the gulf increases risk and baghdad needs investment sources within the oil ministry told out there that some companies want to use that to their advantage brought names i don't want to mention names but.

i am a firm believer and 11 the relationship that come up to blackmail us and we don't want to twist their arms they are our partner knots and we want to have good relations but on the other hand we are monitoring their activities we are watching the costs we have managed to reduce the cost if you look now at the. cost per barrel you see their tours hiking up but with time it was decreased iraq plans to expand its overall oil production to $5.00 and a half 1000000 barrels per day but as a member of the oil exporting countries of opec it has to reduce its oil output. iraq's economy is hinged on oil and faces a tough balancing act the government has to generate much needed revenue while abiding by opec agreement that for this week if you'd like to comment on anything that you've seen you can tweet me climate a finnigan on twitter please use the hash tag a j c t c when you do or you can drop

us a line counting the cost of al-jazeera dot net is our e-mail address as always there's plenty more for you on light at al-jazeera dot com slash c.t.c. that takes you straight to a page a day you'll find individual reports links even entire episodes for you to catch up on but that's it for this edition of counting the cost i'm adrian figure for the whole team here in doha thanks for being with us the news on al-jazeera is next. challenging social issues head on what women say is mexico's longest running says. the program celebrates its anniversary the producers revisit one of their most powerful storylines. and discover how the show has affected the women who inspired date in the 1st place. now i have a voice sent box mexico on al-jazeera.

i was raised in france. these are my grandparents. these are my parents and this is mean. by them both isis and us on. the 1st of a 2 part epic tale of a remarkable family. the father the son and the. one on al-jazeera. al jazeera. has i'm sick and this is the news hour live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes a conditional cease fire is reached in syria's last rebel held province the death

toll continues to rise from fighting in italy. the democratic republic of congo racist to contain an ebola epidemic with warnings it could last 3 years. what to recall gets a new governor after weeks of protests but there's uncertainty over his fate. plus new u.s. sanctions on russia over the poisoning of a former double agent and his daughter in the u.k. . well off to months of bombing in northwest syria the government has announced a conditional cease fire asked rice have stopped in italy province which is syria's last rebel held stronghold truce came during peace talks in kazakstan the opposition say they will stick to the deal as long as the government doesn't violate it andrew symonds was at the talks in north. in accordance with

a communique that didn't use the word ceasefire syrian state media had already announced a conditional truce demanding the withdrawal of weaponry from a buffer zone or little. the syrian government blames the turkish for not fulfilling their role in the so she agreement last year. how the muslim you term this has not materialized on the contrary the number of terrorists in and lead has increased namely foreign fighter terrorists in and leave. the opposition despite reservations agreed to a truce but accused the regime of violating the sushi agreement taking advantage of a withdrawal of fighters so they could launch what it called their cunning criminal attacks and their spokesman gave this warning. right now there is no trust and there will be no trust in the future when it comes with during the heavy weapons and no heavy weapons will be withdrawn unless there are

a written guarantee. that russia says the biggest fighting group brands as terrorists terry arouse sham h.t.s. must be eliminated turkey has an obligation according to such a memorandum to do it if they cannot do it alone can render them some help from us . that's why we're talked also today with the opposition. that if they're interested and if they need some help also from the russian federation to fight here and other radicals and in a glib zone then they can count we can do it no one can measure the depth of distrust between the warring sides after more than 8 years of war hundreds of thousands dead moment 10000000 people displaced then there's the differences between the guarantors of these talks iran and russia on one side turkey on the other each with their differing interests. nevertheless for so many traumatized

civilians there's hope of some with spike from the bombing but no one needs reminding the deals done by leaders in high places have let the people of syria down so many times hundreds simmons' al-jazeera. kazakstan. there already concerns about how long the ceasefire will last you know what it has more from gaziantep on the turkey syria border. the guns have fallen silent but what happens next is not clear this is a very ambiguous ceasefire according to the syrian government is that it is conditional on the implementation of the sochi deal now the opposition saying that we won't withdraw our heavy weapons unless we have guarantees from turkey and russia and you have high authority to share which is the main opposition group but the strongest group in ad libbed saying that we reserve the right to retaliate if the truce is violated without without even mentioning whether or not it plans to

implement that sochi memorandum h.t.s. was the group that refused to withdraw from a demilitarized zone making it very very difficult for turkey to create this cell and in fact this is why russia kept on criticizing turkey saying you're not fulfilling your commitments under the sochi deal will turkey be able to do that this time around so there is a lot of concern that this is just a short term agreement or an arrangement at the end of the day we keep talking about the opposition and the government but it is russia and turkey that brokered this deal the 2 powers who support their warring sides on the ground and both of them really have to reach some sort of a compromise because turkey had political leverage if the rebels were holding ground the government was not able to make any significant advances the russians and the syrian government were targeting civilian areas killing civilians pressuring the rebels to try to surrender so there was a need to reach some sort of an agreement this specially since turkey and russia don't want to rupture their relationship but whether or not it will be short term

or long term well we have to wait and see zain the heart of there and get the united nations has welcomed the cease fire. according to the office of coronation of humanitarian affairs nor strikes have been reported since midnight but there are reports of artillery shelling in northern hama the pause comes after 3 months of intense hostilities that have resulted in close to 500 civilians killed and the displacement of more than 440000 people the un reminds all parties to the conflict and those who have influence over them of their obligations to protect civilians and civilian infrastructure and the principles of distinction and proportionality enshrined in international humanitarian law. talk money is the director of the syria conflict research program at the london school of economics she says the syrian government has been targeting civilians to force the opposition to make concessions right now while this is used as part of the political talks that's

what's happening and the difference between this zone as opposed to the other zones which were part of the discrimination agreement which initially included the who thought and implement other parts of syria and the other parts eventually old these ceasefires ended up with moving everyone who does not agree with the final deal outside of the area and sending them to everyone was just moved to it let me look at the end knowing that there is not also some people that's that so it has to be solved through political solution there has to be political horizon without a political horizon there is no end to the violence and the. now the democratic republic of congo says only harf of ebola cases may have been identified the government fears the epidemic could last up to 3 years health workers are trying to contain the virus in goma an important transit route on the border with wanda it is

the 1st time a ball is spread to a major city 4 cases have been confirmed there and hundreds have been vaccinated or michael ware has more now from kenya's capital nairobi. the head of the government said bowler response doctors on jack miami has said that it's a boiler outbreak could last 2 or 3 years and he said that based on an estimate that they're only managing to identify about half of the about allocated the other half remain largely off able to identify them or trace the people that they've come into contact with but it's widely seen as a positive thing that the response has now been taken out of the hands of the politicians and put into the hands of the scientists talk to me and they said a change of strategy was now required and that the response needed to be moved to devolve down to the smallest units of government in the villages so that when communities are approached by government workers and health workers who are trying to trace people who have been contacted or trying to encourage people to get

vaccinated then they need to be approached communities need to be approached by people with whom they're familiar by people who they know who says to date it's been problematic the community has been approached by people who've been trained in nearby towns and cities and to them essentially strangers this is in a context where there's a widespread mistrust of health workers and the general widespread mistrust of government not least because of decades of conflict poor delivery of public services he said this new strategy needs to be brought in hoping that they can prevent the spread of the virus specially since it's reached the regional capital of goma city with a population of more than 2000000 people so officials now are very concerned that this polar outbreak which is the 2nd worst of the world's ever seen could soon get a lot worse the checks have been tightened on the d.r. seas border with rwanda over fears the virus can spread across the region stephanie

decker has more from there on the capital kigali. authorities here are incredibly concerned it led to them closing the border on thursday for a couple of hours so that they could beef up the health checks in what is a very busy border trying to monitor those across a monitor in their temperatures and also trying to make people more aware of the threats of the virus that has now hit goma is a city of over 2000000 people there's a lot of cross border activity this is why there is renewed international concern i suppose if you will because of the closeness to the other countries now rwanda has over the last year or so been vaccinating its own health professionals been training them and also at the moment there are drills carried out in hospitals also here in the capital because they want to be prepared it is also of course a virus that carries with it a huge stigma a lot of fear is this is a country that depends a lot on tourism so there's a lot of interest to try and contain this having said that there is never been

a case of a boat here in rwanda but of course authorities will tell you they want to be prepared they are prepared and they're monitoring the situation very closely telling people not to travel to go unless it's absolutely necessary a libya will close this 3 migrant detention centers after criticism from the u.n. over conditions to a demo in the coastal cities of misurata and homs the 3rd is into jura suburb of tripoli forces loyal to world khalifa haftar hit that facility in an airstrike a month ago killing at least 52 migrants which we are calling. for an orderly release for richie g.'s in detention centers to urban settings and we stand ready to provide. to provide these people with assistance through urban programs asylum seekers and refugees should not be kept in detention we

absolutely oppose any idea of the training children. in whether they are refugees or asylum seekers or migrant or pedagog as a spokesman for the un's refugee agency in libya he says it's not yet clear where the migrants will be sent. we have been following up with the government to try to understand the more that it is not they're relieved of this. refugees and asylum seekers and was turned really to assist. conditional to the respect of human rights and invariants he and also their safety and protection we have been calling all sort of beautifully on non return of refugees and migrants while interceptable rescued at sea because we have several times said p.b.s. not a state or for refugees and migrants we have a back which program in place in libya and since this program started the legs of $1017.00.