speak on camera though banks are still the official price pegged at $1500.00 pounds to the dollar black market prices have emerged. oh how much can i sell my dollar. 155000 and if i want to i cannot buy right for. 57 ok thank you. the central bank denies that lebanon is facing a dollar crisis and describes her ports of a shortage as an exaggeration but there are attempts to limit daily dollar withdrawals and more and more merchants are no longer accepting local currency they too refused to speak on camera as an. economic conditions have long been precarious this is one of the most indebted countries in the world a decrease in deposits into the banking sector denies the state

a critical source of finance but there are other reasons behind the shortage of cash in the country. on iran for example affected its funding for its ally in lebanon which is also under sanctions this is disrupted the flow of remittances countries also stop providing help to a country they believe is controlled by their rival iran people are starting to take to the streets there is panic over the currency losing value which has hurt their spending power last month the government declared a state of economic emergency for these protesters however this crisis is not new and they want those in power to be held responsible for years of mismanagement and corruption well let's talk more about what's happening in lebanon from beirut we have sami executive director of the lebanese policy studies thanks very much for being with us. so i want to ask you 1st help me out with this the central bank has enough currency reserves including dollars for the next 30 months but there isn't

enough dollars for importers and traders have ads that work well the fact is that yes the central bank does have a high reserves but the situation is actually quite precarious just because we've been actually living with a large budget deficit and very increasing a trade deficit now the inability of the lebanese government to actually attract capital from abroad is putting a lot of pressure on actually deserves so what the central bank is trying to do is actually slow down sort of the depletion of its reserves in order to actually to contain this situation right now. is there a trust issue between the banks and the central banks or as the central bank governor has suggested dollars should be used inside lebanon and not outside is he suggesting then dollars are being withdrawn and spent in say syria actually did

relationship between the banking sector and the central bank is actually quite strong in fact it's that high level of commitment by the banking sector that actually keeping this in place that's actually not necessarily by the way a very very good thing on the one hand it has avoided a crash whereby lebanon has defied gravity in the sense that the economic situation could have been much worse but the fact of the matter that because of this very cozy relationship they've been able to sustain the budget deficit that the government's actually incurred now this comes at a high cost because it actually benefits the backing sector a lot they've made a lot of money and a lot of profits to define mentioned engineering as you know they actually hold more than 60 percent of the government debt so this relationship in my opinion is actually quite strong and it's actually troubling because it's too close to comfort in the sense that you know they've been actually supporting the government but i

think the government needs to take certain actions to stop actually borrowing more and more and start taking seriously forms to adjust the economic station and the fiscal situation but what do the central bank governor mean when he said dollars should be used inside lebanon not outside. what i'm not sure communes by that to be honest i mean the fact of the matter that if there was some rumors going around that the shortage of the dollar actually due to sort of. money going or dollars going into syria i'm not so sure that's actually proved to god i think the problem is much more internal i think we're trying to sort of trying or blaming other factors the enemy in the heart of the matter is not here going to be 11 has. always had the capital flow so the fact of the matter and i know we're talking about whether the lebanese dollars should be spent inside and not outside is beside the point what's actually telling us that's actually a problem in the country we are actually unable to sustain it if we remain at the

same or that bath and and the issue of saying that sending those dollars to c.d.'s to me is frankly is a distraction. expects have contributed more than 10 percent of g.d.p. through remittances and that apparently has slowed is there any reason for that. well indeed the ex-pat and the remittances they send along with what we call nonresident deposits. key factors and have been key factors in sustaining the economic and fiscal situation and what i mean by that the fact that the government central government actually spends way more than it collects and we import more than we export which effectively means that we're spending our dollars side of the country to buy fuel we and also the goods. there emmett's is what they do they compensate for that because they bring in the money into the country and this

balance actually has worked in favor of lebanon for many many years and whenever we actually have a problem you know lebanon seeks international support now that eminence is now now actually slowed down a bit and this as a combination of factors you know it's the region a situation in the arab world the oil prices at the actually are declining what have the systematically over the years which means that left with less money to send home and in fact many of the lebanese who live in the g.c.c. countries actually right now are able to save less and less as it is out of the high cost of living in these countries and what are the chances of a devaluation of the currency or a default on debt look. i would say given how things have developed in the last few months and given the reading has been on the wall in the sense sorry the writing has been on the world for a number of years now whereby you are actually saying that this is not sustainable

the chances of a default or or but a devaluation probably has increased but it's not inevitable it's not in a situation where all you know we're. about to crash no what that actually mean is we're in a very very precarious situation where the government has to take serious decisions the central bank has been doing or taking a many measures to actually prevent that through capital controlled or implicit capital control through the financial engineering that this has undertaken in the last few years i think now it's running more and more out of options because the heart of the problem is going to be in the government in the fiscal deficit and in fact in the trade deficit what the government has to actually decide increasing the pie of the economy sending out a lot good to speak thank you. that would volatile markets trade wars and a growing risk of recession gold is trading at 6 year highs demand for it has never gone away central banks jewelers and some of the biggest investors have kept faith with bullion so what's going on and is it too late to start buying gold let's start

with that record high in 2011 gold prices hit almost $1900.00 an ounce after the financial crisis but it's led to almost a 1000 in 2016 for the last 6 years it's been struggling to rise above $1350.00 in the last month it made it to 1550 and could push higher how high well in the next 2 years it could hit $2000.00 according to analysts at citi group well joining me now from london is alastair hewitt director of market intelligence at the world gold council thanks very much for being with us so what's behind gold's recent rally them one of the really important drivers of the price gold price over the past 9 months has been lower interest rates and lower interest rate expectations if we have a look at the us and think about the federal reserve 12 months ago people are expected rates to rise but we've seen them cut rates and people are expecting more

rate cuts to come but it isn't just a u.s. phenomenon if you look at global monetary policy it's at its new system level in the past 10 years and that's robert a big impact on financial markets notably in the bond market where we've seen the stock of negative yielding assets reach astronomical levels it's about having a big impact on the gold price the question is why is this happening lots of economies now coming towards the end of an extended period of expansion there are recessionary risks on the horizon germany china and the us there are many people concerned about the outlook for these economies and that's partly because of the end of the business cycle is approaching but it's also because of the uncertainty in the world at the moment if you think about. some of the tensions included trade tensions between the u.s. and most of the world but not just the u.s. you've also got tensions between japan and south korea and of course you've got the bracks debacle as well so all of these factors are combining to lower the

opportunity cost of holding gold and that's a pause in the gold price so is this increase in india mon for gold largely a result of the uncertainty in the world right now on the gold is becoming a premium a kind of a safe haven. it's partly that way see in significant inflows into gold backed exchange traded funds and that's coming from some of the large institutional investors who are looking to hedge against some of the uncertainty in the world right now but it's not just coming from that source we have seen incredibly strong central bank demands over recent over recent years and they don't necessarily look at financial markets on a day to day basis they buy a motive for more often than not driven by fund driven by strategic policy initiatives so those are the factors supporting the gold market at the moment there is a flip side to this the big rally in the gold price has affected some of the large physical gold markets so we think of injury in china the gold prices has risen to

record high levels and some of the consumers there actually step back they're holding back for making gold purchases until the price drops to a more for a more affordable level so we're seeing institutional investors and lush central banks supporting the gold price movements upwards but we seem relatively weak consumer demand in some of the major gobind countries such as china and india and what do you think is behind that decision by russia and china to increase their holdings. so in the case of russia as i mentioned earlier central banks are often quite strategic in their approach and often it's not what's happened in the world today but a result of a policy decision made by policymakers in the case of russia there's been quite a clear strategy of detail around zation which they've talked about on. loss over the course of the past few years and that is involved 'd reducing their dollar holdings 'd of dollar assets and increasing exposure to the euro to remember and also increasing their exposure to go and that's been

a very significant driver of the large goal that we've seen coming out from russia and what's been interesting is when they talked about it they've made reference to some of the geopolitical tensions i talked about iran so in russia people are concerned about sanction risk and the potential of global tensions to escalate into real sanctions and gold as a financial asset that can be held outside of the financial system actually helps them manage some of that risk. so do you think gold prices can go any further then i mean do you think we could be looking at $2000.00 an ounce so i'm not going to make a forecast on the gold price but i do get us these kind of questions a lot probably the most common question is what's the big case for gold what could actually see the gold price fall over the coming months and if you think about it in that way take a bit of scenario analysis that can help inform investors judgments in terms of what they think going to be happening with gold and other asset prices so for gold to come down from its recent recent high levels to be expecting to see interest

rate rises and for us to see interest rate rises you're probably going to need to see a stronger economy you're going to need to see u.s. and germany and china banks in back from the from going to below the entering into and you're probably going to need to see some of the trade uncertainty in the geopolitical uncertainty fades away you're going to need to see u.s. china trade tensions resolved you're going to need to see grex it resolves now for an investor out there and they need to think about that type of scenario and compare the likelihood of that happening to the likelihood of us continuing down the path we're continuing down at the moment and i think that can help inform investors decisions about where the gold price is going to go but the one thing this is brought home to many investors is that gold isn't just a tactical asset to be bought in times of uncertainty it's actually a very sensible course strategic investment through asset owners and investors to have within their portfolio all of the time alastair hewitt thanks very much thank

you it's been a pleasure. that is our show for this week with member you can get in touch with us by tweeting me at hasn't seeka and to use the hash tag a.j.c. d.c. when you do or drop us an e-mail counting the cost of al-jazeera dot net is our address and there's more for you online at ages in a dot com slash c.t.c. that will take you straight to a page which has individual ports and links and entire episodes for you catch up on . so that's it for this edition of counting the cost and has a secret from the whole team here thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera is next.

cats know your ways and experience the world like never before cats are always going places together. as a photo opportunity for many. and big profits for a few that is tourists flood europe's must see destinations tensions are rising. with local communities paying a heavy price for popularity. to the true economic and environmental costs. tourism on al-jazeera. and world of illegal trade what you have here is not just archaeological objects you're talking about a political dimension where the spoils of war are smuggled in seoul into the houses and private collectors are selling an artifact is worth finances to be heading.

in the middle east. that's one pixelation trafficking on al-jazeera. 3 prime ministers still close. with the october 31st deadline looming in the u.k. prepared to square off in brussels will. follow. on al-jazeera. president imposes a 24 hour nationwide curfew and deploys the military as protests intensified.

live from also coming up as turkish forces continue their offensive in northeastern syria some european nations sales to ankara. candidates make their final pitch to voters in mozambique ahead of tuesday's general election plus. i'm reporting from iceland on a very. climate change with low disappearance of a nation. welcome to the program ecuador is on lockdown after the government imposed a nationwide curfew and ordered troops on the streets of the capital quito earlier demonstrators blocked roads leading to the international airport and set fire to a government building thousands of people have been demonstrating in the city for days they're angry at new austerity measures that have led to higher fuel prices that could also president says he's now willing to assess the law. well the u.n.

says the 1st round of talks to the ecuadorian government and indigenous groups is planned for later on sunday protesters though are vowing to continue their campaign . as well as with lights on until president. this is the government that is downed that is annexed that is attacking the people. look at how we are this is the government of london or a note down with no name or a. man europe has the latest now from quito tensions remain high in ecuador there is now a curfew that in fact the government has ordered the military to take control of the streets in public spaces not only here in the ecuadorian capital quito but across the country there are still thousands of demonstrators that are defying that curfew meaning that clashes are expected to continue this evening there have been plans for talks the government the president of the country has called for a national dialogue with indigenous leaders but many of the people that we've spoken to here on the streets of people see that that time has come and gone and

they're not willing to go to the negotiating table they're seeing that the situation has already gotten out of the control out of the hands of of the government and there's been hundreds more people that continue to ride continue to ride from different parts of the country to lend their solidarity so it's no longer just an indigenous movement that that's protesting against austerity measures to the end of fuel subsidies for rural communities this is now encompassing different parts of society that want different things and what people are saying is that people lost confidence in the government and they're calling for the resignation of the president well alberto acosta is at it's a ecuador based economic policy publication analysis seminar he says the growing unrest is a symptom of a political power struggle. the economic part of these products the about indigenous and fuel subsidies is just one part of it but it has triggered other interests and you have to we have to realize that this is not only about fuel subsidies but it's also about regaining power from the former president and his

group they are the ones that through their members that they have and some institutions in ecuador they had used their resources to try to. put more attention to their told this to the situation where needed right now and we also have another another after here which are the drug traffickers will all which also profited from cheap fuels so not right now and the things that we try to assist it is going away from the hands of the indigenous people who right now are trying to. say that they are not guilty about what's happening in the capital the things that the indigenous people had a real products they were fierce they were very by all and in their way to the capital they. they took and destroyed plantations they just had milk and factories and when they arrived to keiter they encountered no force

because the president left quito to avoid any confrontation so but they stayed in quito for lunch and there was a lot of. violence which were not used in ecuador which came from abroad this is something that is paid off for from a political movement related to other forces which want to create chaos chaos and. so overthrow the government so really this is more a political thing. france and germany have stopped weapons exports to turkey or its offensive on kurdish groups in northeastern syria turkish forces say they have taken control of the center of ras al-ain that's a key syrian border town but kurdish forces deny that the u.n. says at least 100000 civilians have been internally displaced since ankara launched an offensive on kurdish held areas on wednesday when the kurdish led forces in

syria's northeast say nearly 2200 civilians have been killed and 200000 others displaced since turkey launched its operation on wednesday charles trafford has mana from a jackal a in the turkey syria border at a press conference and s.d.f. spokesman denied the turkish militaries claim that it had full control of the town of russell and since then there have been reports of clashes in surrounding villages he again repeated the group's call for the establishment of a no fly zone over northern syria and he highlighted what he describes as being the dangers of turkey's campaign with respect to the global fight against terror. the turkish invasion threatens the reactivation device and it has revived some of its cells we are still cooperating with the international coalition to fight myself but we are now fighting on 2 fronts one against the turkish invasion and another

against deisel. has been more heavy shelling all around the town of tel aviv today armored personnel carriers tanks and heavy military equipment has been seen pouring towards the border despite increasing international condemnation there is no sign whatsoever of the turkish military pulling back we're just stacy is a former u.s. state department official who served in the obama administration he says the international community should hold turkey accountable if a humanitarian crisis happens. if the red line of isis fighters in the thousands getting released that would basically lead to direct calls for turkey to be kicked out of nato and just for starters no chance ever of getting into the e.u. again even though that's been tried for years basically we're looking at a situation where russia is in cahoots with turkey this more so than the other side we would likely see the kurds the s.d.f.

pushed 1st into the regimes hands before russia's hands but what we ought to do is to get the deputy secretary general of nato the military staffs all reaching out to their counterparts in turkey and basically we've got leaders on all sides earth who want to trump they have incentives actually to get a resolution to get a ceasefire here you've got senate's republicans in the senate here who basically trump these for his impeachment defense and early one what does he need he basically needs a whole stack of things that start with not having another secure in secure situation on his borders or a way that the syrian refugees might actually stay or increase in number and still they've got problems and it lived an unsteady relations with the russians the iranians and the regime a roadside bomb has killed at least 10 kenyan police officers and near the border

with somalia police believe the homemade device was planted by the somali based group al-shabaab a similar explosion in june killed 10 offices in the region of was if also that a small. 7 people have been killed in attacks in northeastern nigeria locals say a gunman raided a military post in the town of galilee ghana in borno state on friday a nearby village was also attacked 4 civilians and 3 soldiers died communities in borno state have been repeatedly attacked by groups affiliated with eisold and he's 16 people have been killed in attacks on a mosque in but. a group of men opened fire inside the grand mosque in south in the country's north but in a fast so has been struggling with conflict for the past 4 years west african heads of state met last month to discuss how to try and end the violence the final campaign rallies of taken place in mozambique in the run up to choose days general election this time around though the ruling party it faces

a strong challenge from its main rival malcolm webb has more now from the capital the puter. president felipe a new see has mozambique for 5 years. first the economy has grown so has inequality some officials from his ruling for a lemo party have been jailed over a $2000000000.00 corruption scandal and the army's trying to put down an insurgency in the north so it's almost like we are the best political party well prepared to continue building mozambique as a contrast peace security and political stability the parties ruled ever since mozambique won independence from portuguese colonialists in 1975. historically many people here are supported for a lot of people here today don't look particularly excited to hear the president speak freely most virtue declined over successive elections and in local elections

last year was declared with just 51 percent of the vote share across the opposition disputed result an opposition say they're concerned about levels of violence throughout the campaign. in past elections there are no my party has always been the strongest opponent it's candidates say they've been violently stopped from campaigning in some parts of the country its leader sue for maddie addressed supporters in the northern city of. the governor's country for 44 years but didn't manage to improve your lives is that not true you're all employed or they come here saying let's work let's work but it's all lies all they know is lying stealing. for to 15 year civil war that ended in 1902 they signed a peace deal with a 3rd time in august. this election will test it.

the m.d.m. opposition party is a relative newcomer. but he supports grown in the last 10 years its leader that we see mango address supporters in the port city of beirut which was devastated by a cycle own in march he's also accused the ruling party of violent. death squads are commanded by a state which has been captured by the from the more party it's the biggest gangster that we have in mozambique as mozambicans prepared to vote on tuesday they're waiting to see if the polls will be peaceful and if the result will be accepted malcolm webb al jazeera maputo mozambique. break here not just iraq when we come back the mystery deepens over an oil spill that's affected 150 beaches in northeastern brazil. and a possible new to.