with china and because fundamentally what the european union i would say more than europe to such represents but trump is a everything that he stands against i mean you know this is about alliances it's about partnerships it's about multilateralism it's about integration i mean this is anathema to everything that trump believes and i want top of that he looks at the european union as basically a german project intent in projecting german economic power and there is obviously something that doesn't i mean you know germany has been a constant in the way in which trump looks at europe and even on the side before his his past mandate so we can expect more of the same in the event of a of a trump victory which you know on the other side of the coin has also ignited in europe a debate about european autonomy which presumably would continue in the event. of a 2nd trump when now in the event of a biden victory we would all of

a sudden look on the other side of the atlantic and find a friend and a partner and a not i once once again said they would be a sort of. incredible relief if you like in in europe and in having you know our 1st and foremost partner to work with on a number of issues you know from foreign policy to climate to sort of rebuilding a post economy now on the flipside of that there would also be in a sense a sort of temptation of europeans to sort of fall back into their comfort zone and put back into the closet the idea of assuming greater responsibility in foreign policy a because of an ongoing alliance and in fact dependence on the united states it is a little after i was 600 hours g.m.t. this is 0 of the special coverage of the u.s. election market mark jacobson looking at nato donald trump called it obsolete before taking office he. almost pulled out of the alliance in 2018 before national

security adviser that's on john bolton talked him out of it president trump has been effective in pressuring nato members to spend more on defense but can he continue along this path during a global pandemic money is tight. yes he can and this is a problem i agree with pretty much everything natalie is laid out there in terms of what a trumpet ministration brings donald trump does not believe in alliances he be skeptical of our allies he treats them as enemies constantly denigrating the value despite the fact that with that we've seen especially with nato over the last 60 years an incredibly important alliance one that's come to the defense of the united states wants that do i think you'll continue to see sort of the transactional you know where whereas trump is looking at everything from a personal game standpoint which autocrats and dictators do i need to have good

relationships with in order to enhance my family's business stature and i think we will have more of that the challenges that i wonder at what point we have sort of the limits of the fragility of the system for example how much longer can nato stand this denigration and it what point will trump unilaterally say it's time to withdraw that's a nightmare scenario and i think although the u.s. congress may have something to say in that trump will have a relatively free hand when it comes to foreign policy i am also concerned about the fact that continuation of the trumpet ministration would bring with it a continued support of autocrats whether it's article on or by. certainly putin assad mahbub in solomon in saudi arabia and the challenges there that when he supports them then that has negative a negative impact on those european nations struggling to stay out of that autocratic street. you know not just in eastern europe or western europe as well

but on what would a president bite need to do to repair washington's frayed relationship with the e.u. and with nato and to convince the world that the u.s. does still care about multilateralism. well i mean clearly has a pathway forward doesn't look too different from what the obama biden administration tried to do before 2016 so there is a bit the blueprints if you will quote where biden should or could go the question is whether he can restore european confidence in america once again or whether according to some of the article when dishes and rhetoric from the french presidency. must needs regardless of who is at the white house needs to start thinking more about. security in

a more independent way even if it's independence within the interdependency in the transatlantic relations so sent in a by the now has his work cut out for him and there's going to be plenty of it because of the way trump has ruined it in terms of trump just a few words on that you know when we see more of the same for me it doesn't mean the same for 4 more years more of the same means much much more to what we've seen the last 4 years because you know let's be careful about what 4 more years of trump means it means. that kind of the tendency to be slightly undemocratic a bit autocratic singleminded would be working according to his whims nationalistic hyper nationalist populist and so on so forth and that kind of trump would be a major problem for europe and he would be an inspiration for many within europe

who are less populous nationalist as he is and that could spell instability for the european union natalie u.s. allies have had to get used to transactional decision making under donald trump i mean the biggest shift has been a spurs how much the u.s. has pulled back from its. commitments. withdrawing thousands of u.s. troops based in germany trump abandon washington's kurdish allies in syria he pulled the u.s. out of the iran nuclear deal and today wednesday the us officially withdraws from the paris climate agreement another policy u. turn announced by donald trump does washington's would mean anything anymore to its allies. ok well i mean obviously i mean in a sense it means because trump sort of says things and in the end ends up doing. now obviously when we think about all of these multilateral initiatives which

because that multilateral and because they have seen a such a prominent role of the united states the united states either withdrawing or attempting to to destroy them are they trying to be consequential for a european union that looks at multi-lateralism basically as a sort of such an integral element of its own d.n.a. so you know faced with this situation what does what does europe do well obviously there's not much persuading to be done with chomp but i think it's fair to say that if we look at what europe has tried to do over the last 4 years it has basically been fairly scared fosters commit incidentally of these sorts of drug we've we've got some some news to break natalie to achieve objectives and no one bashar many thanks indeed let's bring in the kemal texas texas indeed this in any of the year would be completely normal news to say that the republican candidate in this case

donald trump had won the $38.00 electoral college votes but this was not just any other year we had it is a swing states and it had been moving in parts blue. but it didn't and here's how it's ended up $52.00 to $46.00 the difference only 6 percent in the end hillary clinton had it a 10 percent deficit 4 years ago so the democrats are closing their closing on texas every year they are making inroads but still not enough to absolutely flip it so. if we add it to the action we just took the state profile just to back up everything up has been saying the enemy how about the way. that was that 10 percent gap i was talking about via trump and hillary clinton 4 years ago. and before that i mean absolutely solidly red so brave if it i guess you would say and the democrats would still be pleased with the fact that they are making more inroads into one of the most classic red states in the country but not yet not in

2020 let's add it to the state of the race it changes oh my goodness that changes it changes the state of the race extraordinarily doesn't it 212-2223 there are 11 electoral college votes separating donald trump and joe biden now we have to start thinking about places like nevada and arizona will they be blue arizona if it is blue would be the 1st to flip it could be absolutely crucial with 11 electoral college votes and 6 in the vodou because joe biden is what is that 47 votes away from 270 and that's when pennsylvania comes into play with 20 that's when it could be michigan and wisconsin quite frankly that it comes down to and pennsylvania as well because north carolina starting to edge that more into the red column for donald trump there let me help out the way so you can see the numbers

again 223-2212 at what is it a jury in 10 past 1 in the morning on the east coast of the united states just extraordinary i'm wide awake now i promise you someone is many thanks did come on let's go live to our white house correspondent kelly health that can bring us up to speed with what the trump campaign will make of that. yeah well again we are hearing that the administration is furious that there are some networks in the united states that have already called arizona for joe biden because as carol has just discuss this could be pivotal and the feeling is that not all of the vault votes have been counted and so that until they are it is really premature now we're standing by waiting for some sort of statement from president donald trump he says and he tweeted out will be making a statement tonight

a big win he believes that he has won this election or at least that's the claim that he is making on twitter even as we know votes are still being counted the president eager to try and declare that he has a victory given the fact that most republicans voted in person whereas we know that democrats mostly voted by mail in ballot due to cope with 19 in the concerns about social distancing in fact the u.s. president on twitter remarkable really criticizing and also basically accusing his opponent of trying to steal the election he says were big but they're trying to steal the election we will never let them do it votes cannot be cast after the polls are closed so we're watching very carefully to see what more the u.s. president will say about this but what we're going to learn is a little bit more of the strategy don turbos always made it clear that he may not accept the election results now we see him saying that he may declare the results

before we have the official results and we know that whatever results there are the president has also made clear he is willing to challenge them in the courts committee many thanks let's bring in ken blackwell he's the former. cincinnati ohio he's also served as secretary of state of ohio during the 2004 presidential election a state that was crucial to george w. bush's victory good to have you with us ken what do you make of what kimberly was just saying that about the president's reaction to what's going on smart. i find it particularly interesting given the fact that. hillary clinton and the democrats are never accepted trunk $26.00 team victory so it's not look this is probably going to be decided in a very clear fashion in the next 48 hours. i haven't saying now

for 2 weeks that this is probably going to come down to conservation year and arizona. one of the things that i bought in my national analysis was that michigan was on the bubble but let me tell you when i look at the numbers now it looks like the president will win west concent michigan and i think he will win the bank he can afford to lose arizona and take that away from his 306. there are our electoral college votes and still let's deal and still win. it shouldn't be a surprise to anybody that if this comes down to what i term in 2004 as a margin of litigation that this will be litigated by both parties if in fact it is a close election and there are disputes around how votes are counted and which votes

are counted that should not surprise anybody every both teams are lard. to fight this out in court if necessary i'm willing to say tonight that i don't think it's going to get to that i think the president will have tracked when pennsylvania michigan and west constance ok you think that he said that it's going it's going to be clear that the trump will win this by by taking the states. overtaken the stage he took he took ohio so i think i think joe biden sort of. the president realigned the republican party and the republican vote. while there were a lot of democrats that voted most analysts are not taking into consideration is just just like reagan reagan democrats trump one in 2016

were truck republicans those who are reagan democrats on steroids and what we are now seeing on the ground not only by a measure of intensity of support in these rallies that the president has had but in the turnout among blue collar. industrial workers in the state these folks are aligned with with the president ok and and mr biden former vice president biden start i handed them over with his attack on the competitive position of the u.s. in terms of energy that they can't at the 2 things i'll ask you press you can get off about here and what i've said that if if it comes out of pennsylvania you think that this election will be decided in the courts and also to get your fall on how

the pollsters could have got this so wrong again. the pollsters. got it wrong because. they didn't sample the folks who turned out over the last 2 weeks in particular when most folks were voting early in person or voted directly today there were a lot of folks who had not voted in presidential elections in the last 2 presidents . presidential elections who in fact were coming to the polls. it's hard to gauge their behavior and their impact if you don't know who they are the other thing is is that a lot of strong voters because of the harassment that they receive publicly. i don't work with these posters so close you don't know how to get answers from ben

and as a consequence these models have been all wrong and i haven't paid too much attention to particularly the national polls i look at state by state polls and i look at average hold where you can throw out the outline or. begin to get a greater sense of how voters or. i don't think they've found the model yet and that. lot of news analyst turned on with these posters. and they're missing. and i don't know if they'll get it right in the next ok presidential election riggers told she can't think. we're going to have to leave her ground many thanks ken blackwell for bear of cincinnati ohio let's go live to houston texas which that state being projected win for donald

trump how did your castro's. 18 that's right and you know this is not a surprise because despite the hopes of democrats that they were truly competitive in texas this year that it could be all the battleground states it was also widely recognized either by most democrats themselves that it would be an uphill battle for joe biden take texas because this is a state that has not supported a democratic presidential candidate in more than 4 decades but what i will tell you is at this point with more than 90 percent of those counted that bart margin of victory by president at 6 percentage points well that is still news here because that is a much smaller margin than the. republican candidates and smaller than 2016

victory over hillary clinton which was 9 percent so although the margin was not as close as some of the polls may have suggested and certainly democrats on the ground here in texas are going to look at the results and call this progress and it's startling this specially when you compare to ohio for example where it appears trump may have even a larger margin of victory there than here in traditionally deep red texas and what is driving the change here in texas and we've talked about the same in many other swing states is of course the demographic shift that's happening across the united states and you see that notably here in texas and of course in arizona which i'm sure we'll get to later but in texas you know latinos are voting more so are young people and that is what's narrowing that margin of victory for republicans you know every presidential election cycle we're here in texas saying is this the year that

this state is purple is it the year that it turns. to that it turns blue this apparently has not turned blue this year but certainly there is a greater argument to be made that texas is competitive now for democrats and i would certainly expect elections going forward for this to be a renewed focus for both parties i didn't castro in houston to explain thanks. remain confident that they've got this election in the bag joe biden came out to speak in wilmington delaware his home state he spoke not long ago let's go live to what mike hanna what did he say mike. well joe biden arrived here at way past but mind to basically asking his supporters for patience saying that we feel good where we are still optimistic that he's going

to win the enough to actually clinch the presidency this despite apparent setbacks in florida a place that the democrats thought that they had a real fighting chance in yet joe biden absolutely insistent that he's expecting victory in arizona he's looking to victory he says in wisconsin michigan and pennsylvania victory in these states would still possibly give him a pass to the white house but the whole election now thrown into a degree of chaos certainly legal action will be following we're going to be hearing from president trump and self it is believed within the next half hour but joe biden remaining optimistic saying to supporters keep the faith here's what he had to say. i heard tell you night we believe we're on track to win this election.

because of the odd precedent early voting the mail in vote is going to take a while we're going to have to be patient until the hard work of tally of votes is finished and then over to every vote is counted every ballot is counted. by our fear in europe. well we heard about that contentious tweet by president trump shortly after joe biden's statement basically alleging that the democrats were attempting to steal the election well yesterday afternoon joe biden had a response to that when he was particularly potentially seeing president trump claiming a victory before the results were announced joe biden said presidents don't deliver votes voters deliver presidents so that is an absolute statement given the tweet

that we've heard from president trump recently about certainly this is now heading to a lot of legal action and no clear result it is expected certainly not until all the counts for pennsylvania have been completed and that is a whole huge amount of mail in votes of postal votes that need to be counted they have until friday 5 o'clock to count those votes and it is indicative now that pennsylvania may decide this election mike hanna in wilmington delaware in washington d.c. our white house correspondent kimberly kimberly twitter has flagged the president's tweets. which we were talking about a while ago when he said. without any evidence that the democrats are trying to steal the election we will never let them do it. and just to make sure that our viewers are clear about what flagging means essentially what

this means often with the president's tweets and this is happened quite a bit in recent days and weeks is that if twitter deems some of the president's information to be erroneous in accurate misleading it will make the tweet unavailable to be viewed until they can put up the flag or make that determination then the president's tweet does reappear but with that that is in order to try and make sure that there isn't any misinformation being disseminated on twitter so that is what has happened to the president the president put out a tweet saying and accusing his rival joe biden of trying to steal the election saying that we will never let them do it votes can't be cast after the polls are closed and this is what twitter was concerned about that essentially donald trump is claiming victory even before all of the ballots have been cast in some of these pivotal battleground states pencil being pennsylvania being one of them now we're standing by waiting for a statement not on twitter but instead we believe from the east room of the white

house we know that it was set up earlier in order for the president to address the nation we were promised that coming before midnight eastern time that did not happen but now we are hearing my eyes and ears on the ground my senior producer at the white house chris sheridan telling me that the pool that follows the president around this is a group a small group of journalists that follows the president around on a daily basis has been assembled that means that a statement is imminent so we're expecting to hear from donald trump at any moment and we expect that he will elaborate on these comments that he's made on twitter essentially that he believes that he is doing better then the media is representing in fact he sent out a steam statement from his campaign saying the mainstream media as he calls it is the fake news and is really trying to hide how well he has done this evening and he's also. signaling that this is going to end up in the courts that whatever happens terms of the results that was what was likely to challenge it to be ready

thanks to script more on all this social media could fulfill our viewers here once again adrian this is extraordinary you have twitter once again hiding one of the president's tweets behind a warning label that we can see here the president of the united states waiting we are a big but they are trying to steal the election we will never let them do it folks cannot be cast after the polls are closed no twitter as kimberly was just saying it says that the information in this post is disputed and might be misleading it's leading excuse me here's the facts we know that voter fraud is exceedingly rare in the united states that's according to a study by mit which looked at the last 20 years worth of elections in that time 250000000 ballots were cast by mail there were 1200 cases of fraud that's 0.00006 percent of votes cast it's illegal to cast a ballot despite knowing that you are ineligible to do so so there were 1100

criminal convictions afterwards ok the president feeds these conspiracy theories about voting by mail and then we see the big social media platforms having to rebut him in real time the department of homeland security has warned that foreign actors especially russia then amplify those kinds of allegations of these sorts of election integrity issues now they've already been 300 lawsuits filed in dozens of states many involving the procedural changes made because of the coronavirus pandemic we've already seen legal battles unfold you can see the ballots being counted in pennsylvania and that's where one of the battles is has already unfolded the u.s. supreme court upheld a ruling by the state's top court ordering a 3 day extension for this type of vote counting republican challenges have also been defeated in texas and nevada now the president started the day lashing out at twitter. lashing out at the supreme court for this decision saying that it would enable cheating but as you can see here twitter also hid that post behind

a label because it is misleading voting by mail is in fact safe and secure now the supreme court could revisit that decision in pennsylvania if it does the deciding vote could go to the newly confirmed justice any county barretts the speaker of the house nancy pelosi called her an illegitimate supreme court justice earlier on tuesday and says democrats are ready to fight we're ready legally constitutionally congressional a in every way to protect our democracy or any of the gory that the president may try to. introduce into this but be reassured that our current our democracy will survive i don't like saying that i don't like to have to do that but if that's what the president wants to do go into that battlefield we're ready they're ready back to you adrian under let's bring in

joining us now live via skype from washington d.c. he's a professor and director of the political management program at george washington university good to have you with us towards it's a tight race is this what the polls predicted. well the polls were very very very close many of these. estimates will probably be within the margin of error of the of the polls of the swing states there were there was really only one that looked like. it was outside the margin of error and that was wisconsin so i did an evaluation of the polls back in 2016 and they're much closer than most people think because of the margin of error that you have in the in the polling and some of the samples are are pretty small but of course as you're corresponds we're talking about we just don't know in wisconsin we know that there were 1900000

absentee ballots taken out to be returned by mail and they've only counted $2500000.00 total ballots so far in michigan $2800000.00 requested only $3.00 total ballots so far and in pennsylvania 2 point $5000000.00 requested and $4500000.00 total have been were counted so far so there are a lot of ballots out there so i'd hate to say that the polls really got anything wrong until we really know what the results are going to be. 16. that the polls would have us believe that hillary clinton was a shoo in for the presidency here we are in 2020 again biden with with a healthy percentage point lead over donald trump for the last 6 months or so it would seem right through the the pandemic and here we are on election night it's neck and neck. well again in 2016 the national polls actually got it right and in the 10 different swing states the only poll that was really off was

wisconsin in 2016 there was one estimate in north carolina one of the to estimate for hillary clinton and donald trump goes off in north carolina so 3 of the 20 s to meds were off and usually figure about one out of the 20 should be off with a 95 percent confidence interval as we call it and we don't know that so so those polls were actually off and so i think people think of these polls as though they are 100 percent accurate and that you can believe the direction that you're leading without really understanding about the error that is there and i think we put too much credibility on the polls without understanding that will grow so we put less faith in the opinion polls and just remember that i mean why why are they so an unreliable why it why is there such a margin of error is it because it is the way in which polls are done.

flaws the fact that people people would often tell the truth whether speaking to a poll so what a political. well actually that's that's not true there are we we know that we actually had a really good sample rate this year in 2020 because a lot of people working from home and were willing to talk to pollsters so the number of people who were involved in the polls the sample rate was actually very good in 2016 like i said the polls weren't that far off and there is a margin of error why is there error because you can't sample everybody because that's what happens on election day you can only sample a small cross-section and these are media firms that usually pay to have these done and the samples are the smaller the sample the larger the area you're going to have and usually the amount of area you have is plus or minus $3.00 to $5.00 percentage points which means that you need to have a between

a 6 to 10 percent lead in those states to really be comfortable to say that it's outside the margin of error and you usually just don't see those in the swing states because that's what makes some swing states really good to talk to a top and thanks dave for being with us. to be with the agent thank you so it's looking pretty much like a way to isn't going to be though in election night we'll have to wait until later on when the state while we do let's go back to washington a serious you have written. right let's talk about legal battles our narrative which is so. jeff houser joins us once again lawyer and executive director of the revolving door project of the center for economic and policy research robinson woodburn's joins us to assistant professor in the department of political science at howard university and ron carey much out of show and the author of yesterday's mom a political biography of joe biden is also stuff writer and jacobin robinson would you just been tweeting actually about the legal illegal battle ahead what are you

expecting. well if we start with the basics of how elections function we would look to the united states constitution and article 2 specifies that the state set the time place and manner of administering elections and while there are some congressional constraints on that the main one to look at is the 887 electoral count which says that states have in this case till december 14th to submit a panel of electors so we have a pretty long time for states to actually put forward their final counts now in a few states georgia michigan wisconsin pennsylvania we see many democratic mail in ballots are likely to get counted over the coming days donald trump has said that this is a form of corruption that it's unconstitutional the constitution very simply does allow the states this is 30 and does not grant the president any authority to weigh

for or against this so in a simple text or reading of the constitution we see georgia michigan wisconsin pennsylvania operating as states have for a very long time in gradually counting those mail in ballots right that's the constitutional the guns just chew tional basis for what's to come but jeff house as we discovered in 2000 and the arabs of his what's so cool and we saw george w. bush season that narrative so quickly the democrats really not really terribly enthusiastic when jesse jackson and others said look let's get on the streets themselves get this you know let's make this fight this and the democrats as a democrats leadership as always is rather cautious interesting lee that i mean is there a sense of the democrats a slightly beyond doubt in this narrative already because they were so optimistic about texas annoy other people some sort of leeway you've but interestingly faux news haven't declared. biden weirdly makes it more difficult for trump to seize that narrative because fox news is keeping our eyes on

a in the biden if the if the president called them so he called it automatically say look i'm i'm going to heads let's go to sleep now and then you know and then we'll make sure the democrats don't steal it. yeah there is an interesting individual well regarded. dish and technocrat who runs the decision desk at fox and in a move that was crushed and the new york times ben smith actually profiled him a few months ago this straight laced person of no no no. he decision for fox news and it seemed that he correctly predicted that the guy just call balls and strikes as he sees that it. is a liar and i think you're right that's important i also think the fact that biden spoke for trump and did a good job in naming confidence in the results level headed ness i think that is standing the democrats in much better shape than they were 20 years ago when al

gore went back and forth about what his posture was the other final thing is that that one democratic operative in 2000 who did not mess up you have the right instincts is this gentleman ron klain used widely rumored to be chief of staff and he is president he was also the polls are under barack obama so he had to choose the skills which are he knows pandemics he knows recounts mildly optimistic. for today right what's your sense of the political establishment if if it's clear that the trump camp a in glaringly trying to disenfranchise valid vote do you get the sense that the republican party will stand behind bottled trump and indeed the donors to the republican party are many of whom a kind of have had enough with of trump and quite happy perhaps. to go back into the shadows and control policy where do you think that lies because clearly it's up to the republicans and the birds the republican party to stand behind trump if he

starts making outrageous claims about votes votes coming in to that for example. yeah i mean absolutely i think one of the misconceptions that has ruled over the pasta awfully is which opposition power is that it's troubling the republican party where really it's the g.o.p. has been leading trump he has really enacted their agenda not really the one they campaigned on and the effort to to throw out forms to stop the count to do all the stuff through the courts to 2 years into an election that has of course trump has as supporter and he has called for it but has really been led by republicans at a low level and so really in many ways it is trump who is enabling the lowest elements of the republican party and you know we saw this and bush v gore the more than willing to use the codes and to use popular pressure to. overturn a democratic result i think the key is what you said this obviously has to be a cold fight of course it's a legal battle but it has to be beyond that it's

a political battle as the waged beyond a courtroom you know we can look at recent examples where mass action has overturned the actions or blocked actions by a sore tearing governments we can look at the way that consistent mass action bolivia was able to talk poll ultimately the coup government that's a power that we can look at some of the recent protests in poland massive massive protests that led the polish government to withdraw all this very restrictive anti-abortion measure that they were trumped in place you know if the politicize ation the massbus as asian of ordinary people under trump who and united against was going to mean anything it has to in this moment when the republican party is trying to steal the election people have to come out and and show that they will not stand for it and on that topic robinson would but we've seen this enormous

flowering of a democratic grassroots movement often ignored in school and that's the reason why the democratic leadership and it's amazing to me. be watching what's being said about this coming period which was frankly once you put aside you know projections about texas and so on was pretty much expected perhaps and we're seeing unions and we're seeing. all these different groups that have come up in the trunk in the trump administration during the top administration talk about general strikes mass mobilization i mean this this is very different from 2000. yes and if you ways we're seeing for one thing turnout spiking right this is a high turnout high involvement election we've also seen. campaign fund raising and spending increasing partly as candidates turn towards phone banking text banking and broadcast advertisements so 'd we do see something like a mass mobilization but the united states is also operating in

a period of intense polarization and what that means is that there is just not a really big middle to shift between the 2 parties so those hoping for a blue way of for a democratic landslide might get one that's a lot smaller than one we would have seen 20 years ago much less 40 years ago and that is one of the important takeaways from this again it will probably be a few days before we see either candidate when it's going to be a few days before we see the counts finish in michigan wisconsin and pennsylvania but whichever candidate wins is going to win on a fairly narrow margin and that doesn't quite reflect the widespread involvement and turnout and enthusiasm around the selection of jeff house and i'm saying democrats talk about the congressional elections in 2018 that. around this time it seemed it was rather close but then as the days when all. of the democrats took the house relatively relatively comfortably went up in the atmosphere relatively comfortable about all the comparisons that is this the we kept hearing before about

a potential for a red mirage which is what would take a vote on the drawls but then that then dissipating as the hours went on as on something that you can see with you know a one with a mind to the 2800 congressional election. i think that so much in cycles is somewhere in between 20162820. democrats performing usually well at turning out their boaters in a midterm election democrats ritually very worried that in the republicans they were solid they had pretty good turnout especially in florida but it wasn't spectacular i think in this election cycle you're seeing both sides spectacular turnout i suspect we're going to be setting records for participation which is overall obviously a very good thing i suspect the national popular vote it's going to end up cost or loss 5 or by i mean will row as votes get counted from california you know we see of different voting methodology so it's a little unclear how you exactly compare apples to apples to either the last couple

but i think ultimately speaking democrats have to feel a little bit down that they were not able to do better against a president who was defending the record that yesterday when all these big questions for joe budden on the democratic party and have served for the right wing democrat i guess jeff thank you so much bronco bunch others thank you robinson would 'd thank you as well back to wager a. shabby thanks let's get an update on the state of the race with news of exceptional city exceptional state has come up in a dream the exceptions to the rule i mentioned this earlier that there are 2 states maine in the press who don't give all of their electoral college votes as a whole so what you see in nebraska is that donald trump has won 4 electoral votes what he's actually done is 12 ok joe biden has won one and 4 winning those too. donald trump gets a bonus too that's the easiest way to explain it he gets

a bonus too for winning the overall popular vote in the state but for the actual 3 districts it is split 21 so short story gets 4 biden gets one ok maine let's have a look at maine at the moment. 81 percent ok joe biden in the lead there but we're still killed searing that to be too early to call not too close to call so we can actually give you any projections on that but if we put those on the map this is what it does to the state of the race it makes it to $24.00 to $213.00 which i'm sorry to be the over excited numbers guy here but a huge it's just quite extraordinary it really really is that is going to come down to just a few states the ones i want to look at and it's basically a south north split let me show you so states down here in the south let's talk about those 1st of all. north carolina. in a too close to call state at the moment or position at the moment. the date is 100

percent reporting but it is still not being finally called the lead is donald trump there 576000 so that's potentially 15 that could go in the column of. president trump and then georgia as well will have a look at georgia which is too close to call with its 16 the difference is 118000 there 93 percent reporting that has narrowed and we were talking about this before how well joe biden could do in the areas around atlanta how blue could be spread from the center of atlanta out into the suburbs it is narrowing that gap so i'm not pulling that figures out of the really in any column quite now so those are 2 if we got one more should we do our zone or as well because i think arizona could be so crucial in the in 155000 separating them with 71 percent reporting so there's still a lot there's still

a lot to come in there and that will be crucial again the urban areas around phoenix what can happen there i think arizona could be decisive so that's the south we've looked at the southern states back to my state of the race map and i want to tell another little story here. remember no one's flipped a state but there's 3 important ones here the north wisconsin michigan pennsylvania right pennsylvania with 20 michigan with 16 wisconsin with 10 if you put all those together if joe biden were to flip those 3 states the 3 states which flipped in the last election from blue to red of he can bring them back to blue that to 204 turns into 270 bang on the nail so there is a path there a very clear path but as we've already been hearing pennsylvania with so many more to count so many mail in votes to deal with so that would probably only be tomorrow or today whichever way you want to look at it michigan i would probably only expect

on wednesday as well so it's extraordinarily close that is a direct path to $270.00 but then arizona you remember as well as i was saying there is a chance of joe biden in there and nevada not even anywhere near no numbers there and the voter would be we would think blue with it he says thinking 6 electoral college votes or maybe it's 5 the brain's a little bit fuzzy at this point so it's 6 i'm told thank you gordon right here and . i know i'm being the numbers going being excited numbers guy but this is this is quite fascinating really tired emotional that's been a very long oh my goodness. sit down we'll see you again very soon let's bring back our panel to talk more of the. international. view of president trump of what a potential president by 2. natalie to achieve the director of the institute of

international affairs is with us once again she also served as an advisor to figure federica greeny the european union's formal foreign policy chief mark jacobson an assistant dean of washington programs at syracuse university also served as an advisor to u.s. secretary of defense ash carter and was a deputy nato representative in kabul and in doha once again our senior political analyst marwan bashara natalie i will russia's president vladimir putin view this election. well i mean clearly. last time around putin obviously did bank very very much on president trump and indeed in times affect us in the affinity obviously something seemed to click i think at the same time putin sees trump now perhaps lightly different from the way he saw him 4

years ago probably that person affinity is still there but probably putin also sees trump a someone who has been in a sense unable to deliver upon a promise of a very different kind of reset that probably putin had in mind so i think you know there is that a turn extent of the sort of you know disappointment and disillusionment with a president trump that has been unable to deliver but i would say that you know given the choice spruce it will obviously continue to go. with trump rather than have the substance ino not very uncertain the top of a president biden that would. probably be take a much much harder line towards russia among throughout his 1st donald trump or seem to prefer the company of strong men to dictators over the leaders of countries who are supposed to be washington strongest allies how will those the strong men and dictators be treated under a president by. well i think in time entirely in

a different manner and as i measure before i think we'll see with with biden is really repudiating that the tacit or sometimes open support that the tribes had for autocrats whether it's in turkey hungary 8 certainly russia and then of course beyond in the middle east in asia so what i think of biden i think the shall enjoy is that order to be effective at repudiating the autocrats we have to rebuild that trust with our european allies i'm not sure that's going to be very easy to do or as easy as some might think you can't surge trust it has developed over time and i think there's a healthy degree of skepticism in europe that the u.s. can be a reliable partner and this is part of that long term damage whether it's 40 years or you know hopefully not an 8 years of trump you have a long term damage to those alliances alliances that can help stem the tide of

a live liberalism in the in europe and beyond well i want to focus on that. you know if i was if i was an autocrat or dictate total what a populist they'd better anywhere in the world now and i'm looking at the t.v. screens in america and see that. president trump is head to head with joe biden despite everything that happened the last 4 years according to corona including should the countless scandals that that this man is was able once again perhaps to pull a victory out of. you know out of out of a hat and that sense i think probably they're all thinking that he's going to have more of a leeway than he did back in 2016 on the one hand he has 40 years behind him and on the other hand he doesn't have to run again i mean you know we'll see but

normally shouldn't be running i get so in that sense he would have a huge leeway and he would be empowered so much so that i think he'd be there if he'd be able to make decisions to dictate policies to put pressure especially on our allies especially in europe moving forward because to be a 2 term president of the united states despite everything that we've seen before that is momentous moment in american history i would say in world history if if that takes place want to pick up on the. sure i you know there are 2 thoughts i have 1st. there are some structural things that may make it more difficult for a 2nd term trump to get things done and i happen to think the president has a very free hand in foreign policy but we are looking at a political situation where the democrats are likely to get potentially

a majority but also possibly a 4951 or even a 5050 split and you do have some republican members lisa murkowski from from alaska and mitt romney from utah who i don't think would always line up with the president on some of these foreign policy initiatives so congress may be a bit more powerful and maybe even a bit more inclined to oppose him especially as there are republicans will be jockeying for the 2024 election as soon as this one is over but i think to pick up on the more important point i can't understand why my own country is split 5050 on someone who has shown not just all our craddock and narcissistic tendencies but someone who is utterly failed i mean we are nearly nearing a quarter of a 1000000 dead as a result of the coronavirus mostly due to the competence of the administration and i can't even imagine what might my fellow panelists and those around the world are

thinking of the united states at this point that this this is what we've become to me that is not only dangerous in our own country but is dangerous for stability. throughout the world i mean it's to me that even more so than the iraq war will be the defining moment america's failure here luckily a i see you nodding your head vigorously if if president trump is israel acted what will that mean. for the issues that washington his father's need to find some common ground on. well i mean you know i think you know i think there's both the sort of policy but also the politics piece of this this puzzle and i think probably the 2nd almost becomes even more important than than the 1st in the sense that when it comes to policy in a sense trump has already kind of destroyed most of the things that he could destroy you know he's ready and he will count you know pull out of the paris

agreement and he's already weakened multilateralism by pulling out of the w.h.o. by pulling out of unesco sanctioning the international criminal court he's already pulled out of the chase e.p.o. a i mean so many things that he could destroy he's already destroyed and frankly speaking there isn't a great deal left now he's been a venice of the on able to construct everything anything and this you know it also goes hand in hand with the fact that there is still a sort of you know congress to deal with and presumably he would be unable to can construct very much in the coming 4 years if you want to be reelected president but i think it's the political aspect which i think as european strikes us the most because indeed as mark was was saying you know sort of the united states is and has been the leader of the you know the democratic welds and what we're seeing here quite apart from the personality and the policies of a president trump is

a broken political system and you know the and we'll see how this pans out in the coming hours in the coming days but if we do end up seeing not only instability and violence and disorders on the streets but also a constitutional crisis i mean that see the way in which the cool it handles all of this then ultimately the picture that you know on top of obviously a deeply polarized and divided country the overall picture that this paints is really one of a broken political system and the implications that this has on europe and not the democratic countries in the world and is is tremendous. that's where we'll leave it many thanks indeed met mark jacobson and by one bashara that's it for me i'm going to leave you in the company of nick clark who will take over our coverage next here on syria the media and social media have affectively become was donald trump's presidency he weaponize the fake news to attack outlets that he perceives as

enemies he once again is richard gere's person present media analysis program the listening post. donald trump's inauguration set the tone from that day when he flat out lied about the size of the crowd it was clear that the u.s. news media did not know what to make of the president's on again off again relationship with the truth series of well we have to label it untruths we now have a case where he's made another charge and he has not got evidence why are we surprised that such a racist there's until donald trump came along the white house press corps had been reluctant to accuse any american president of lying that is no longer the case the washington post has counted how many times trump has lied or misled americans the number is more than 22000 forcing journalists to call that what it is this president is a serial liar and he seriously lie tonight how do you defend 22000 false wits by attacking and calling the media outlets reporting on them fake news the dishonest

media nobody has any idea how corrupt the media is just like it's a nasty question one false story after another you are the enemy of the people are you why you're so quiet among us with this administration constantly misleading citizens journalists have grown ever more reliant on leaks from disgruntled white house insiders ex insiders turned pundits or ex cabinet officials turned authors some of those leaks have proven to be misleading and have come back to bite the news outlets that bought into them remember russia gate the allegations that russia might have been gathering material video of mr trump that could be used to blackmail him stories of russian meddling in the 2016 election and allegations the trump campaign and the kremlin had worked together complete with that sexy cold war angle with too much for news channels not named fox to resist the eventual retractions were damaging since they lent the president's fake news narrative some credibility we actually correcting a story that we have been reporting throughout the day today the us media landscape

divided before donald trump was elected has since grown far more polarized in one corner the. liberal side including outlets like c.n.n. m.s.n. b.c. and the new york times in the other fox news broadcast upstarts like one america news and conservative platform such as the christian broadcasting network and the washington times which oh they're resurgent audiences to the president time and again americans have seen those rival journalistic camps take the same new story and spin it in entirely different directions the covert 1000 story has proven to be much harder for fox and its ilk to manipulate since there is no way to spin infection rates and mortality figures if donald trump loses this election prepare to see some journalists claiming at least some of the credit calling it a victory for the 4th estate some of them will be justified to a certain extent there are news outlets that have been locking horns with the president for years producing some adversarial quality 'd journalism along the way

but until 2020 they failed to really move the needle in fact fewer americans trust their news media today than in 2016 what it took to sink donald trump in the polls was covert 19 and the science hard data it doesn't lie and try as he might the president has no answer for that. it is $700.00 g.m.t. 2 am in washington d.c. and after one of the most divisive and unpredictable u.s. elections in memory the night has ended without a result president donald trump and his democratic party challenger have spoken both in saying that they will win stands democrat joe biden has 200.