alexandra byers, al-jazeera politicians in japan are voted to declare a climate emergency warning that the world faces a crisis. they hope the symbolic declaration will increase pressure for action to combat global warming and send a message that japan is serious about the campaign. the vote comes just weeks after the government committed itself to slash its carbon emissions to net 0 by 2050. 01. these are our top news story. there's been promising results from the krona virus vaccine developed by the university of oxford and astra zeneca. the latest phase 2 findings show a strong immune response was triggered in those aged over 70. donald trump's legal team is again making allegations of voter fraud without presenting any evidence. his lawyer, rudy giuliani, is speaking live at the republican national committee office. as election officials

in the u.s. state of georgia raje to announce the outcome of a recount of the votes. president elect joe biden is the projected winner with 306 electoral votes. while trump has 232, has become the 1st u.s. secretary of state to visit an illegal settlement in the occupied west bank and to step forward in the occupied golan heights. earlier he said settlements cumbia, we quote, lawful and proper in israel as part of a 10 day tour of the middle east. and europe also said that the us would be stepping about action against an anti israel boycott. movement. we will regard the global any israel b.d.s. campaign is anti sematic. you know, the sensible to you, mr. prime minister. see this. it seems like a statement of fact, but i want you to know that we will immediately take steps to identify organizations that engage in hateful b.d.'s got or can withdraw our u.s. government support for such groups. ethiopia's military says its neighboring to

graze the main city of mikalah, unwanted calls and final offensive. after more than 2 weeks of fighting with the region's leaders, the prime minister's task force says it's close to ending the conflict. at least 16 people are being killed in uganda during protests sponsored by the arrest of opposition leader bobby wine $350.00, people were detained in the unrest. security forces shot at supporters of the pop star turned politician. pakistan's prime minister is in afghanistan for talks with the president, a shotgun and its iran calls 1st visit to the country. it comes as peace talks between afghanistan and the taliban have stalled. and that's been more violence between afghan forces and the taliban. those were the headlines. i'm back with the al-jazeera news in half an hour, but next it's inside story. do stay with us. is

the u.s. president rushing foreign policy decisions before leaving office on the terms with drawing troops from afghanistan and iraq and reportedly considering tougher action on iran? so with only 2 months left, what legacy could he leave for joe biden? this is inside story. hello i'm come all santa maria, promising to bring a country's troops home is the kind of thing which in the right circumstances can help win an election and 2020. donald trump's already lost the election and is now in a mad scramble to bring u.s. forces back to the united states from afghanistan and iraq. before he leaves office

in just 2 months. acting secretary of defense, christopher miller made the announcement on tuesday after a lot of speculation in the media. the plan is to bring troop numbers down to 2 and a half 1000 in both countries. that would be a reduction of 2000 in afghanistan, $500.00 in iraq. and to do that by january 15th, next year, remember that would be just 5 days before joe biden becomes president and commander in chief of the armed forces. and you might think this would be the type of thing which would draw support from trump's republican party, especially as he battles to leave some sort of legacy. but have a listen to this. senate majority leader, mitch mcconnell, usually an odd and backer of the president. a rapid withdrawal of u.s. forces from afghanistan now would hurt our allies and the light, the light, the people who wish us harm. well, it's a fact and afghans are still wrapping the taliban is not about and by the

conditions of the so-called peace deal. the consequences of a premature american exit would likely be even worse than president obama's would draw from iraq. back in 2011, which view it fueled the rise of isis and a new round of global terrorism. not just for a bit of context, here is how u.s. troop numbers in afghanistan have looked since the invasion in 2001. there was a big surge under president obama who took office in 2009, reached a peak of almost 110000 troops in 2011, or the next 4 years. that was a big cuts right down to 10000, troops. and then under president trump, that in some modest increases just at the end of the graph there. but when you look at the bigger picture, this is all american troops overseas. they have been on the decline for years, including as you see as shop initial decrease when trump took office in 2017. and donald trump may be considering moves on other foreign policy issues as well. u.s.

media say senior advisers managed to talk the president out of a military strike on iran's main nuclear site. warning it could trigger a wider conflict and his administration is preparing to label yemen's hooty rebels as terrorist. remember, these are the ones backed by iran, so it's a major demand from saudi arabia. but the u.n. and u.s. allies like germany, oppose this. all right, so here is today's panel in kabul. he moves the founding member of the afghanistan, affairs unit think tank in washington d.c., john walsh, senior program officer on afghanistan at the united states institute of peace and a regular contributor here in doha marwan couple on the director of political studies at the arab center for research and policy studies, gentlemen, thank you for joining us on inside story. johnny, i'll start with you. seeing as this is where the stories come from from the white house from washington. i figured there are 2 ways to look at this. you could either

say this is donald trump, doing what he always said he would. and in fact, what a lot of presidents say they will do, or he's just doing it because he's run out of time. and i think all i need something in these last 2 months. it's probably the latter, isn't it? well, i think that it's very consistent with what the present trends instincts have pointed him towards since the very beginning, even when he 1st announced an increase in troops at the beginning of his presidency . he said this is to explain the opposite direction and we're seeing the fruits of that. now, i think that the main thing that has prevented a complete withdrawal of troops both previously and now is the fact that the peace process that president trump did have a significant role in authorizing has made a lot more progress than one might have expected. at the outset, and that is one of the main reasons giving incentive to keep the latest numbers or 2500 troops down from 4500. and i suspect that while this allows president trump to

say that he has made a further significant reduction, it probably doesn't change the strategic situation at the negotiating table all that much. because the u.s. still has a lot of leverage with that number of troops and the taliban recognize that they can't win a war. they kind of have to negotiate with not any troops staying in country. tell me about that leverage before i bring in our other guest, just quickly tell me about that leverage because you have what to 200000 troops who are primarily there to support and train the afghan security forces themselves so they can do their job. tell me about that. leverage, well, i'm not a military planner and we'll have to see exactly what general miller, the head of the u.s. force in kabul decides to do with those 2500. but that's still tied just now tied for our largest military combat commitment in the world. and that still gives a pretty considerable platform to not just train afghan forces and take strikes at counterterrorist groups,

but to provide air support as needed. if there are major engagements on the ground . to prevent any insurgent groups from potentially swarming, a major city or serious that threatening a large contingent on forces. so it's been true for a long time. forces are doing the overwhelming majority of the fighting, but with a small amount of what we call enablers. which often means air support, medical evacuation. you can make a huge difference in their fortunes on the battlefield, their combat capability and the time on recognize that. so even if this reduced number, it really constrains any gains that they could theoretically make on the battlefield . and that is one of the core dynamics that i think encourages all sides to negotiate because this war is very stalemated when those side, having any obvious prospect of a battlefield victory there for talks, or maybe a better alternative, much talk about him in kabul, let's get the perspective from there,

joni's explaining there that actually the afghan forces are doing a lot of the work themselves these days and that the u.s. forces while they are still important. what's your take on that? how significant is it to still have 2 and a half 1000 u.s. troops there? c b s thought as the combat mission is going to start and are confronting the taliban is concerned. you all know that since 2014 it has been all be up on forces . who have been battling them and keeping ad b. from all the military objectives that they've got about have had off to 2014, military would jot of the international forces. but you know, the president's often to have national forces chillis, the commitment of the international community towards yob, on government orders up on state and state institutions. and continuation on back presidents has always given the particular more doubt and religion more out to be not to the military. i would search through the fighting forces of the outline army

and up on national police have been seeing off the dollar amount challenges across the country. now these are ready, good decisions have of course, have to act. it's impact on what sites it has given the fall of more got age to challenge in terms of or toying the stat state and government or state system. and only i decide to have sent a message to the ottoman forces that the international forces are drawing down. considering the fact that the only cognize that time has been a personality change with a lot of arbitrary decision making, a lot of credit go decision making. and doing his litter box priest, which is ending and in couple of months time it is a feeling it up on a stand that he's giving his last ditch effort to achieve at least something out of his stomach. so then you think green satin, that's right. in this administration sworn in, sorry to interrupt you. do you agree, then, much talk with the likes of nato,

some e.u. countries, germany who are allies of the united states and who are all voicing a lot of concern about the stroll down and saying it needs to be done in a more measured way. indeed, and that's what the feeling of the opera people end up on government has been that of course, the international forces have to go one day and that is not a lot of weight as far as the international strategy stance on international community strategist and starts about up on a stand, they have to go through and let the operands big believe big gradual shift has already happened. starting in 2010 to gradually handle what up it is sponsibility to the oblon forces. now we are in a bit critical stage where the peace negotiations are going on, and it's all about politics, the leverage, enjoying the politics of support, which is going to help. what sides make decisions that can contribute to work supported to get secondment. yup, i'm going to read

a good decision making like this. again, disrupt can give credits to one side to do a lot of banks meant ship, try to have more to seek more concessions on the negotiation. but rather than having an objective constitution, i objected negotiation. so we're going to have an impact on this, and it too, has released that concern as well. some 0 in kabul on a need to help because i can't decide there's a lot of good arguments here both ways. one saying that actually the troops have been drawing down for a long time. actually the afghan forces have been in charge for a long time. but then also this other side that this other idea that as much talk was just saying a quick decision like this. it leaves a void very quickly, which do you think it is? but come on, i think we have to think of this decision, but he much too i. it's mainly driven by the mystic politics. but i didn't prompt him into an election promise to withdraw. they was troops from afghanistan,

from iraq, and to end endless wars mean, this is what he sent. actually during his election campaign, i think he was surprised that he was, he did not win the election. he did not expect, in fact to lose. so this is why, in my opinion, he's excellent it into the withdrawal of you is totally going to call the consequences for his allies without in iraq and has done so malia he just want actually to adopt a policy of cut and run. the idea is his military is not allowing him to do that because he's trying to do it in syria if you don't become a lot when he doing that full court with the president of the gun. when he just so prized almost everybody including his secretary of defense jim at this and he decided to believe they were strobes problem from syria and allowed to actually to go. and i think now he's almost planning everybody who was opposing

an ace policy of withdrawing promise from syria and iraq. he did actually fire his sick of the, of the us last last week because everybody knows actually that markets as i was actually trying to control it, say, go with the one of the, of us was especially from afghanistan because he, that he thought that such a has to would or will be actually having a bad consequences for the national interests of the united states and also what its allies, it would give that impression that the united states actually doesn't care much about its allies. it's abandoning its abandoning its abandoning them because at most notably, if they were stocks with a lot to gain from a goddess don thought about it would hold up a couple. i mean, we've all, we all know downs and in iraq, we know that that withdrawal ask you would want to buy you actually in iraq would have also agreed to expanding the influence of the un when it but anyway that it

was withdraw from and the region of the war, it actually is speeding to increase in competition between the regional rivalries in iraq. you have to get on to saudi arabia and afghanistan. you have pakistan, lot of iran have a shot and already china and india. so everybody is really concerned. they were allies in europe, the us allies, on the ground in afghanistan and iraq. they all consent by what the president might be doing from now and january 20th when he is when he, when he leaves, when he leaves office. so all the that but that the main idea is to actually this is this policy is completed that event by domestic competitions, by the president must not be one. he wants to 10 his supporters that i almost fell for all the promises that i made during my election campaign. so this is my

biggest, he probably if he is going to run for that 2024 elections, he will bring the war these issues back and build on guys. when i was the president . i did this, i can drive up at moments a different take. i want to come back to you shortly when i want to talk about some other issues of iraq and iran in the hope these johnny, i'll just come back to you in the mean time, the peace talks, one of you are the un, which to mention them but there was, there was the deal which the us signed with the taliban. and now there are the ongoing afghan taliban peace talks. how much more important, johnnie, did those become when you have the specter of more troop withdrawals from afghanistan now? well, i think that these peace talks were the only realistic prospect of a happy ending to the war in afghanistan before this in our meant, and they remain the only realistic prospect of a good ending. now, as i mentioned earlier, the battlefield is really badly still needed. perhaps as one says that still it

would break if the u.s. withdrew altogether at don't know. but it was quite historic that the afghan government and taliban started negotiating directly with each other for the 1st time in the decades of conflict. just a couple of months ago. many have pointed out the different ways in which those talks have slowed down. and they have, i don't think anyone should be surprised at that when such a difficult longstanding conflict is kind of coming to the negotiating table for the 1st time. there is a huge opportunity here and the u.s. with this smaller presence and think still has quite a bit of leverage, as i said on both sides to keep nudging them towards a deal. ultimately, of course, the sides have to make their own decision. no external party can make it for them whether they want to explore peace. but this will take time, it will take months and months at the same time. it's the most important thing going on, the afghan political scene, and it really does have some chance of ending this conflict. and in due course,

much talk, i was looking back at the deal which the u.s. and the taliban signed. i think that was back in february and part of it was saying they u.s. would agree to a full withdrawal within 14 months. if the taliban were to keep its commit. it's 2 quick thoughts from you. what are those commitments and are they being kept? and in fact, would this drawdown of further troops actually help the situation? potentially, it will in theory. well, that's what it is that meeting the requirements is going to sign. there were 2 major which have been agreed rat that out about are prepared to talk with the afghan government and others. but you know, the level of in the wild and the cost of not 6 months has put everybody off and the beast that the whole world actually ongoing peace process has typically

been damaged because people are expecting that with the progress on the negotiation table that it's never deduction and wasn't in a lot of the budget, just get stronger and get strength and that's not as easy out. not going to conflict context, but unfortunately to get to a spike in off parts of the country, the taliban have the chat and the i want government and the court may just cities that look the sort of situation in which we are living right now. and i thought of the 2nd, even distance on, you know, one couple of it where have they talked about a medical degree, the depression, or drop the commission of a lot of the security situation allows and not a break up with the, i'll kind that kind of international night vision, but then we get there that there was

a news report coming out in the look at the media that one of them, but it was targeted inside. it was just, it was a u.n. report that suggested that the connections steep, continue to demand active between about about a guy that this has created a situation where the feeling is that once biden administration comes in to the peace process that makes it all it from drum them will review the whole process and the drug addiction on the up on government as well. because they see that trombetta ministration been heated so much down to the ballot box, giving them blind, sending them, and jonze off. not ignorant any jobs, and really challenging the legitimacy of the outline of government. the belief is that the trump administration will change this, although the current peace process to continue, the expectation is that the americans will stick to what has already been agreed upon. and then the johns that have stripped out any agreement will need any view. and expectation is that the biden administration would certainly look into it and

make sure that the taliban, the taliban prevent themselves meeting the terms of the agreement. struck. i'm conscious of the time and also contest i want to bring my one back in as well to widen things out. because my own with we focus so much on afghanistan, obviously, but iraq and iran and yemen are all other foreign policy factors of the moment. let's go through this quickly, shall we iran, 1st of all this report that donald trump had to be talked out of, of attacking an iranian nuclear facility. i mean, what would that have achieved starting a war and then running away disciplined? i mean, i did that got off to actually by the new york times on, on here on, i mean, i think, you know, i mean, come on, i got 2 versions of this story. one said that it was actually the national security adviser who presented the options to the president, including military action against iran and the other one which the president actually if you will sort of got on the other and actually says that that was

actually or done to him with the begin options to deal with with iran. he got this. i don't think that is going to use military action against iran at his whining days. this man for the boss, for years and my opinion, he has begun. he has been very reluctant to use force and hand nest in his foreign policy. most probably he would go for talking sanctions on iran, more support. he might be going for side, but i doubt what you're on. but i don't think he is going to get the us involved in another military action against iran, especially he's got any action and he sort of that action against iran will probably lead to a full fledged war pull out war with done with that, with the iranians this is something that i don't think is prepared to do concerning the un on everybody. it's been said now that he might be actually, or the state department might be actually just a classified document, the movement as a terrorist organization. if he does that,

it would be happening that of course, of his successor, joe biden. and this case do or die to end the war in yemen because as we all know, joe biden makes that ending the war at the iran one of his top priority. so i think mostly he can complicate the mission of his success up before he leaves office, but i still don't expect him actually to to go for a military action. we are seeing the man he's were doing from that isn't it doesn't went more. he doesn't want more involvement and that he just saw this is why i am not actually very much convents with the argument that he's going to. he was military action in the middle east before he leaves office. can i ask you quickly as well about iraq? because we focus so much on afghanistan, they will be the same number of troops left in iraq as well. but, i mean, as soon as this announcement was made, you had 4 rockets hitting the green zone, and i read reports as well that might pump a. actually one of the poll embassy stuff out of iraq as well. clearly the

situation there still incredibly follow us home. absolutely, i think iranians, they wouldn't, they would want very much to show they would throw in a few strokes from iraq as a dictator and to iran and its allies in iraq as if didn't force the united states to withdraw from iraq, especially they made the promise after that, as, a nation of gotham's very many, early this year by the u.s. by the u.s. forces in that and, and by the drug airport. and we all know that they go on. ian's get made a very strong actually statement, and i guess they are not just yes and one thing that medicare has to withdraw from iraq and ordering even their allies, the militias, the shuttle missions in iraq to start at that used roads. not that would push on the americans in order to force them to or towards withdrawing from iraq. and so if trump is actually willing to, it's not out of iraq. so iran would want very much to show that as if it's a victory the by, by, by itself and by its allies and in iraq. but this is going on by the way. we can

the government of mr. partly because i knew that might lead also to that he general of i said one more time because we already member that i pretty much were withdrawing all of you. still some iraq in 2011 led actually to the emergence of, i still mean that there and in fact al qaida, into ice or ice and we are going to happen. we're going to start this vicious circle one more time. ok that i still lies back and i said, we'll come back to fight isis and go and so on and so forth. ok, about 60 seconds. if johnny under the leave it with you, let's fast forward. 2 months, president biden is in office. the troops maybe have come home by then, or they're coming home. what does he do? how big does foreign policy figure in the early stages of a bind administration? well, i think one thing that distinguishes biden from many of his predecessors is that he comes into office with a huge amount of foreign policy experience with contacts around the world in each

of the conflicts that we're talking about. so i think it's more ability to tackle big problems early. moreover, if it is likely there's a deadlock between capitol hill, it's much harder to get domestic things down the foreign policy things, not so many are that incentivizes foreign policy efforts. i think that there are several foreign policy priorities where there's it, there's a ticking deadline, and the most immediate is that nuclear issue with russia, whether the treaty can be extended or renegotiated quickly. afghanistan is another one, because there's this may deadline by which under the u.s. taleban agreement, all troops are supposed to be on. so regardless of what troop number trump leaves biden with, you know, biden team will have to take a look at whether it thinks the top one of complied with the agreement and what it has to do to move negotiations forward. i do think it's quite likely that the buying team will stick with some version of the deal and will see negotiations as

the later best option for afghanistan. and that all of its efforts have to go into making a peace process work. that is johnny walsh from the united states institute of peace alongside must talk about him from the afghanistan to face unit. and now in kabul, and from the center for research and policy studies, gentlemen, thank you for joining us and to you wherever. and however you're watching around the world, remember we're online and on to 0 dot com where this and all of our previous episodes live. well, so facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story. we're on twitter at a.j. inside story. i'm at chemical h.a.e. . if you want to get in touch with me directly, if you can join today's show, i'm kemal santamaria from the whole team. thanks for joining us. so you can see

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