the jasmine revolution that sparked demonstrations across this region 10 years on form the arab spring and the complaints we've heard today about jobs lack of opportunity and rising prices could be heard and perhaps any town and any street in the middle east. al-jazeera city busy. time for a quick check of the headlines here on al-jazeera more than 300 school boys adopted by an armed group in nigeria last week have been released gunmen stormed the school in the northwestern city of katsina last friday there's been increasing pressure on the government to improve security they have so far. given 340. schoolchildren later we also understand 4 have joined so we have to leave 344. children that on

their way to the now they have surrendered all that is with them so find out. whether still some left like you said even the figure we gave was not to stick because. we're doing city 30 to 400 and now we are going to 344 so you know exactly about tomorrow a panel of experts advising us regulators has bought the emergency use of a 2nd corona virus vaccine the endorsement of the modernity job paves the way for swift approval by the food and drug administration last week the committee backed the pfizer biotech vaccine county make administered across the u.s. . russian president vladimir putin has held his annual news conference he says he's happy to take the locally developed coronavirus vaccine dismissed claims he

ordered the poisoning of the opposition figure alexy. the us government agencies are rushing to tighten their computer security after confirming they've been hit in a long running and sophisticated hacking operation the attackers are suspected to be linked to russia they reportedly breached cyber defenses and accessed e-mail and internal files at the treasury and commerce departments as well as computer giant microsoft. the u.s. is set to get its 1st native american cabinet secretary holland is president elect joe biden's pick for interior secretary the 60 year old is in her 1st as a congresswoman from new mexico had been a strong grassroots campaign for her appointment those were the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera after the bottom line dance of watching. one day i might be covering politics in the next or my hero by program from serbia what's most important is talking to people understanding what they are going through so

that i can convey the headlines in the most human way possible. here it is either we believe everyone has a story worth hearing. hi i'm steve clemons and i have a question has china beaten america at the globalization game let's get to the bottom line. if you want to understand how the world really works about war and peace about nations rising and falling one fundamental place to start is oil and energy as things stand now and for the forseeable future but well and gas industry remains whopping lee vital to any country's businesses its factories its transport sector its national defense yes renewables are coming on line and yes tesla is going to be big but in global terms the quest for gas and oil will dominate the ambitions of the world's great powers my guest today is considered to be an unrivaled oracle on the pulse of energy around the world is got a lot to say on the tensions brewing between america and china and russia and the

messy rivalries in the middle east daniel yergin is a pulitzer prize winning author who's been writing about the intersection of energy economics and history for decades he is the vice chairman of i.h.s. market and information company based in the u.k. and the usa he won the pulitzer prize for his groundbreaking work the prize the epic quest for oil money and power and his latest book is the new map energy climate and the clash of nations then you're in thanks for joining us today when you in your book get into this question of what is driving the ambitions of big powers you sort of tell the story be earning credible story teller until you know the story of big geopolitics through people but you focus on china you focus on russia in the united states and what i just called the messy middle east are these the primary drivers of power as you see it in the future of oil and energy and power in the coming decades absolutely and not only are they the drivers

but changes are so dramatic. steve my very 1st book was on the origins of the cold war and i never expected to write a new book perhaps about the origins of cold wars but certainly what's happening with china and the united states manes that this is going to be the biggest geopolitical issue for the next few decades i think what's happened is that over the last 5 years it's been a radical change. in the relate in the whole attitude between countries as you know if you went back 5 years ago and you went back to present as far back as reagan they talked about engagement constructive relationship working with a changing china you don't hear that anymore steve this is you know there are very few things that unite democrats and republicans in washington d.c. but one thing that does is this notion that china is a strategic rival a great power. great power competition here competitor this is

a very different language and same thing comes from the chinese and you know you're asking the question is it just inevitable that this happened or is it the nature of the political systems that it's happened but it's certainly that sense of being the have opposed to each other is rising and it's on the economic front trade used to be the thing that tied in together because we're so interdependent which is very different from the cold war days of the soviet union but even that is become very contentious and so kind of solving this problem in a way that doesn't get us into conflict of some kind is going to be a huge challenge of statecraft do you think joe biden. because of his knowledge and experience can take us in a different direction to the can it matter or do you think the forces of oil of energy of competition for acolytes out in the rest of the world are so overwhelming that it that a that a leader can change things i think biden is a stabilizer and will look to stabilize but

a lot of things have happened in the relationship the south china sea that i write about how calm the whole battle over technology the sense that there are risk in the economic relationship with china so you have both republicans on one side and democrats who don't like trade on the other side so i don't think it's going back to where we were when barack obama was there or when bill clinton prashant it into their rule based system of the world trade organization way back in 2001 and i think it's going to act out but certainly biden will try and stabilize it and the one area that the probably try to work with china will be on climate but i think most the other issues are going to be pretty contentious now you talk about the century of humiliation with china and that is a driver of it psyche and what its choices are but you also talk about humiliation in the middle east which is missing messy and rivalries and you know some of the

real some of them petty and i guess my question is why has the middle east turned out so differently than china with having so much so you know such a huge resource base and it's interesting that you say that because i haven't quite seen that connection to that that theme of humiliation is politics too in a china sense it was a sense that we were once great our not i have this picture in the book of. it after becomes party secretary. first thing he does is he takes his politburo over to a museum to stand in front of an exhibit called the century ition and saying this is the past we're not going forward from here so it's a very strong chinese ashleigh and i think china's one country the middle east is so many different currents and there are people you know a lot of it has been trying to overturn a map that was laid down during and after the 1st or $60.00 and what followed from that. but so you have the people who just isis just want to cope back to

a different different world back to the same then you have the all exploiting country some of them trying to adapt to a different kind of different terms of what's ahead and you have the overarching issue of the competition back to your power competition between iran and saudi arabia and turkey for predominance in the region. you know one of the things that struck me is the scale of the chinese a gauge when in the world the belton road initiative your comparison of it to you know 7 times greater than the marshall plan where america bailed out europe and of course the nations had bailed out it was sort of an expectation that those nations were going to play kind of the global game our way. when you look at what china is doing in the world in the scale of it i think the message comes in very clear that america sort of in trouble when it comes to influence in the world am i wrong i

think that's right i think that we've lost some of it and people are not very confident about the u.s. says it wants. to know one of the great strengths the u.s. has had is its alliance system having alliances that is pretty frayed right now and the belt and wrote is really this find the same. important middle of the world economy out i think that had a scale of. over that of a question but that but it's very 1.4 dollars and the belt road i have this map is actually hard but it's hard to put the map together possess so many different elements it's south asian it's east africa it's europe and i have an exchange in the book in which president panama says to the president china come art of belton wrote to and present china she present she said sure this is about connectivity so it is about economics it but it's also inevitably about up about

political influence and let me and if i can add one other thing about every interesting whether i'm in asia you know one could travel or talking to people like over zoom when it's in asia. in the middle east in latin america you hear the same thing now don't make us choose we don't have to choose between the u.s. with whom we have a strategic relationship and an economic relationship and china which is the most important market for our goods and that's you know that's a another aspect of this a people haven't looked at much but really struck me as i was finishing the book the number of voices you hear saying that other countries who are worried about the standoff between the united states and china i remember when barack obama came in the saudis came to me and were so upset about the barack obama campaign saying you know that energy independence was

a goal of an america and it was within reach and they said that would be a terrible thing for us in the middle east and you sort of right that it was a terrible think that their relative who's back to chloe the labor of obama it started with richard nixon gerald ford jimmy carter ronald reagan george h.w. bush bill clinton george bush. and barack obama they all said energy independence and it all seem ridiculous i think even in 2008 when barack obama came in it did not seem very likely because people did not really that was 2 $1008.00 was the year that people began to think you could apply shale gas technology toil it turned out to be incredibly disruptive technology transformed the market and stead of the u.s. importing 60 percent of its oil and the vulnerability of the sense of insecurity that goes with it you now have you the big 3 it's the united states russia and saudi arabia who sit astride world oil markets and the u.s. is the number one producer of oil and gas in the world 12 years ago unthinkable

what would have happened 12 years ago if the iranians even with a small attack attacked a u.a. e. ship or attacked saudi oil production facilities or if the united states had assassinated you know an iranian i or d.c. al quds commander what would have happened to the price of oil tell that story there would have been if any of those things that happen there would have been panic in the market the price of oil shot up it would have been you know dominated the front page what's going to happen what does it mean gas lines disruption in the united states disruption then all around the world the middle east the flames but we had a case study a little over a year ago where reining in missiles went into the most important hardware in the world oil industry which is abhik facility in saudi arabia. now such a racket was able to fix it fast but the other side of it was also that the markets kind of it's a panic to panic for 2448 out hours because there's other bits in there called

shale and canadian oil and other things the market is much more diversified so there's an element of of energy security that in the scenario you described steve would not have existed 12 years ago so it is a big change and therefore since we have it kind of people forget it at least in this country in the u.s. forget about it and ignore it and take it for granted when it comes to this question of the you know the supply of oil and what not you know and they the paris climate accord in environmentalism how do the swim together it's not a picture we're seeing in the last few months is mrs september you had the e.u. saying we're going to be net 0 carbon by 23rd. that you have japan and you have south korea the said it you have written this a candidate that said it and you had joe biden a set it so that tells you directionally where we're going and if you look at the

growth of renewables including renewables solar and wind they're going to grow there that's were a big part of the investment in new power facilities will go there just look at the numbers for asia 58 percent of the power plants under construction in asia today are coal and natural gas so directionally we know where the world's going to go we have a technology deficit to get there and that's going to take money in time to do that and i think carbon capture is called it's going to be part of the picture because it does you know you have an $87.00 trillion dollar economy in 2009 t. that runs 80 percent on oil gas and coal you can't i don't think you can just transform it you can change the balance and we'll have a more mixed system it will be more efficient how we use energy but we're still missing a lot of technologies we need to fully address including carbon capture. so what

about green new deal and representative octo cacio cortez and a lot of people i imagine we have some of of her fans watching the show today do they have a place in the new map or are they on the fringe well no i think they they will be a very important voice. pressure group is. i don't ministration is it is he put together almost every day the front page he's have a story about progressive or environmentalist or other groups complaining that they're not getting enough positions in the biden is ministration so there will be will be a continual struggle and i think there's a lot of momentum to this and you know you see companies adopting next year a carbon targets too it's just it's easy to say that what what's missing is the how dan i want to get back into another dimension of the new map and that is the north pole which as as part of global warming has opened up

a lot of pathways and opportunities for russia to open a lot of new supply opportunities for china and creates ways to circumvent that you know complicated arena of the south china sea but best i can tell the americans have been you know on the sidelines what's going on in terms of america china and russia and what's going on in the in the warming north pole. i think the u.s. has been ambivalent about developing resources in that region and just in the united states russia is not content ambivalent about it they've gone fully ahead to develop liquefied natural gas l.n.g. resources there that are going to make them one of the l.n.g. suppliers in the world and they see this not only from an economic point of view but from a strategic point of view great photographs in the book of this russian scientist who planted this high taney in flag 15000 feet under the sea. to

hide in the space from russia russia sees it as it has their strategic territory and china is not going to be left out of the act that sees it as you say as an alternative to the south china sea and one of the amusing things in new math is that the chinese now talk about a color silk road and say that they're basically an arctic power too and they want to play because they send a lot of stuff from asia to europe and this is quicker and faster and they don't want to be left out so and russia of course has a very long coastline the other country that has a very long coastline there is canada and the canadian private foreign minister when the russians plan to slack to set that's $100.00 centuries how can you do it but the russians went ahead and did it and for that much 21st century well i think one of the other seeing any implications and i know many people in the oil and energy market you know wait for every word you say in terms of what's going to be on the future one of the really seen things is because of kobe that it may diminish

the resources for investment in new coalitions around green jobs you know ernie monye is the former secretary of energy is interested in an energy jobs coalition around green energy opportunities and what i found interesting is you said oil could very much be the scarce needed item even though time in the near term because of the lack of this investment in my basically getting that right. yes well i think you know i think that pretty investment has really left the sector you know if you have to price collapses it's 2040 who haven't had returns to investors so that it's gone elsewhere so there is the question of access to capital plus some investors are reluctant in the sector anyway but we have to ask where with the jobs the remember 70 percent of the world's solar panels are me i know other 10 percent by

chinese companies elsewhere so it's certainly putting solar panels them jobs but for i think what we really need and what i emphasize and this is a study that we did with bernie monies for this breakthrough energy coalition we need new technologies that we don't really have technology don't come overnight you know the 1st let's see an ion battery tesla's here rashly in 2008 let's see an ion battery was entered in laboratory in 1976 when the world was going to run out of oil look how long it took to get there wind and solar are a half century old industries modern wind and solar it's only in the last 10 years to become competitive and by the way to become very competitive talk about the shale revolution and a solar revolution as well you leave africa out of your map for the most part. lit lot of lithium perhaps in africa does africa have a chance to leapfrog onto the dan yergin next map because of you know that the

craze for lithium that we may see as more tesla like batteries come on and cobalt is a democratic republic of congo's of all sorts i do have the. book nigerian energy minister saying it's fine for than the ins and germany to say they're going to do this in energy but we have tens and tens hundreds or people in the commercial actually asking the same. i use indian away se as the emblematic story to talk about the developing world but you do point to something every. city which is the ambitions around net 0 carbon involves so much building at things that aren't there now the wind may be free the sun may be free but you need a lot of minerals you need a lot of mining said a big oil you have big shovels and that means you're going to have new supply chains and kind of what you're pointing to where those supply chains how they're

going to work and you know china's moves very fact of lead to have a dominant that dominates the lithium ion battery supply chain today so that gets us back to where we started talking about u.s. china clash and you know we've seen the battle over was the telecommunications companies in the battle over tick-tock our supply chains for green energy also going to be subject to this we don't know but i say keep your eye on that. you know your book is is just filled with great stories of people and i want my viewers to know that it's a it's a wonderful book not just about oil and energy in a very bland sense it's enriched by by human stories tinkerers obsessive compulsive types but when you go into a country like saudi arabia you talk about how a lot of that entrepreneurial spirit has not taken place because there's been sort of a caretaker

a nanny state you know in this and i'm just interested in whether you think a place like saudi arabia will eventually be compelled by circumstances you know to move in a new and different direction and where some of those stories when you were to write an update of this book you may see you know a saudi entrepreneur there matched some of the you know other wonderful stories that you share in your book i think it's very challenging when you if the off button on lex porter and natural resource exports are it tends to crowd out the rest of the economy and so they have vision 2030 which is trying to reform the economy shift it to be less dependent upon oil it's pretty hard to do it because it's not just you know just the investment in the crowd it's the value system it's rule of law it's it's what people believe is it ok to fail and one of things that are going to side it's ok to fail and then start again and a lot of societies that's not possible it also turns out that if you really want to

get away from oil diversify away it helps to have a lot of oil revenues to do that and it hasn't that isn't been very possible in the last 6 years so i think it's challenge and you've seen some of the countries gulf area op with abi for instance that have been able to do that but it's it's a septic challenge and it really takes a commitment it takes an educational system that turns out people so it's not just you know you don't just sort of say we're going to do it and. could happen. but i think that if you look at the countries in the gulf region they're looking they're saying we have to do it because oil may still be a dominant oddity but it's going to be less dominant and less urgent which are at the same time 70 percent of our population is under the age of 30 and they need jobs so you better diversify your economy just turns out it's hard you know ms has finally dan when i was reading your book i was asking myself what other

kinds of major trends are happening in the world that could also develop their own maps and how would they over lie on the one that you described and i was thinking about really the rapid rise of populist nationalism looking at religion and proselytizing and the kind of the competition of religions globally as others have you thought it all about these other isms and how they either run into your view of the new math or are irrelevant i think that one i didn't dwell upon it. maybe maybe a couple of them one is the rise of the straw man who has a system that on paper is democratic but it's not democratic i think that's one feature the other goes back to a book i did called commanding heights which is. you know the embrace of an open

global economy arc it's just. and the movement away from that and the distrust of that and that's how is it to exactly that populism that you're talking about that somehow elites are managing things so i think such that's not there and you always i mean you think of all the changes from the last 10 years so the changes ahead but i tried to bring them together in the new map in the same time as you say with a lot of stories a lot of people and i'm very proud of the pictures i think this is the only park an energy ever written that has a photograph of the actor jackie chan in it but people have to look at it figure that one out but it makes sensitized to what we've been talking about exactly exactly well dan yergin author of the new map energy climate and the clash of nations thank you so much for sharing your candid thoughts with us today and i really recommend it to people in the incident credible it does in fact help you organize you know what other otherwise looks like chaos out there and i think it

also creates some very sobering views on those people who do want to get to a more sustainable energy climate what the forces are that they've got to contend with but you lay out in a very sober way so dan thank you so much for joining us thank you steve it's great to be on with you i appreciate it. so what's the bottom line dunk helping one of china's great leaders once predicted the world will soon be one planet with 2 systems and he might just be right china is building its way to a global marshall plan that dwarfs what the united states did for europe after world war 2 and the belton road initiative well those are ties that bind and let's face it looking at the latest election results that elected joe biden but exposed the deeply divided usa we see lots of americans believe they fought the cold war but china what and they also believe that the world like donald trump kept saying is ripping america off there's an ambivalence about global engagement today so we shouldn't be surprised that china's version of globalization we can call it

globalization 2.0 could be the story of this century and that's the bottom line. when the news breaks the impact of the storms in honduras has been particularly devastating when people need to be high no group has claimed responsibility for the shooting on the outskirts of srinagar in india and mr kashmir people here say they're living in fear al-jazeera has teams on the ground they never ate the sky for food that we simply don't know if we contiki to bring you more award winning documentaries and. on air and online. reading about biological and chemical agents are radio with headphones throughout history a lot of water 1st appeared its head when a man started fighting and developed by nation states there could be enough to fix

everything. now within reach of those seeking can offset the combined the most toxic substance in the little. man many invisible threats on al jazeera a lot of the stories that we cover all highly complex so it's very important that we make them as on the stand that will as we care to as many people as possible no matter how much they know about a given crisis or issue all of the books audited this area the smell of day is overpowering as al-jazeera correspondents class will be strong to do. we've never had a president who has literally for 4 to 5 years repeatedly attacked our democracy. blew through there are 2 different things i don't have a narrative i have a question you're hitting there really where people can't get treated and just feel so even further joined me richelle carey and up front is my guess from around the

world take a hot seat and we debate the week's top stories in pressing issues here on out is there a. hello i'm daryn jordan in doha the command of the top stories here on al-jazeera more than 300 school boys abducted by an armed group in nigeria last week a been released gunman stormed the school in the northwestern city of katsina last friday has been increasing pressure on the government to improve security they have so far. given 340. schoolchildren later we also understand 4 have joined so we have to leave 344. children that are we to enter and now they said they have surrendered.