cation for a hinge of children nor an azizah welcome friends but with a big task ahead ballasts. it is good to have you with us hello adrian finnegan here in doha the headlines on al-jazeera britain's prime minister boris johnson has announced new restrictions for london and southeast england non-essential shops songs and indoor venues are closing the government is also backtracked on easing some restrictions for the christmas holiday but tougher rules are in response to the discovery of a new strain of corona virus it's 70 percent more infectious shieling the spike in england's ospital ization rate it's not thought to be deadlier than the original given the early evidence we have on this new variant of the virus the potential risk it poses it is with

a very heavy heart i must tell you we cannot continue with christmas those planned in england those living in tearful areas should not mix with anyone outside their own household at christmas they support bubbles will remain in place with those at particular risk of loneliness or isolation israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu has received his covert 19 vaccine live on television to kick off israel's vaccination program and occupations will begin on sunday that include jury settlers living in the illegally occupied west bank but it excludes the territories 2 and a half 1000000 palestinians who have to wait for doses through the world health organization u.n. secretary general antonio tatar she has called on armed groups in the central african republic to put down their weapons peacekeepers were deployed ahead of the 20 december 27th elections a number of armed groups of banded together to form an alliance. u.s.

president total trump has downplayed the damage done by a suspected washing hack despite cyber security experts say that it could take months to unravel president donald trump is contradicted is and secretary of state saying the hacking of 6 government departments is under control wet weather and freezing temperatures of worse than the conditions faced by displaced syrians in the little province thousands of them live in camps which have poor heating and drainage systems most are set up on agricultural land and what is the last rebel controlled area of the country there's the headlines these continues here on al-jazeera after the bottom line next. frank assessments you've got colleagues on the ground in the canaries what is the situation there's only one doctor and one nurse for $2200.00 people informed opinions how big does foreign policy figure in the early stages of a bi ministration he comes into office with a huge amount of foreign policy experience in-depth analysis of the day's global

headlines how will a place like it live get the vaccine when there's no money and all the rest of the rich countries are fighting for an inside story on al-jazeera hi i'm steve clemons and i have a question has china beaten america at the globalization game let's get to the bottom line. if you want to understand how the world really works about war and peace about nations rising and falling one fundamental place to start is oil and energy as things stand now and for the forseeable future but well and gas industry remains whopping lee vital to any country's businesses its factories its transport sector its national defense yes renewables are coming on line and yes tesla is going to be a bit but in global terms the quest for gas and oil will dominate the ambitions of the world's great powers my guest today is considered to be an unrivaled oracle on the pulse of energy around the world is got a lot to say on the tensions brewing between america and china and russia and the

messy rivalries in the middle east daniel yergin is a pulitzer prize winning author who's been writing about the intersection of energy economics and history for decades he is the vice chairman of i.h.s. market and information company based in the u.k. and the usa he won the pulitzer prize for his groundbreaking work the prize the epic quest for oil money and power and his latest book is the new map energy climate and the clash of nations then you're in thanks for joining us today when you in your book get into this question of what is driving the ambitions of big powers you sort of tell the story be earning credible story teller intel you know this. story a big geopolitics through people but you focus on china you focus on russia and the united states and what i just called the messy middle east are these the primary drivers of power as you see it in the future of oil and energy and power in the coming decades absolutely and not only are they the drivers but the changes are

dramatic steve my very 1st book was on the origins of the cold war and i never expected to write a new book perhaps about the origins of cold wars but certainly what's happening with china and the united states manes that this is going to be the biggest geopolitical issue for the next few decades i think what's happened is that over the last 5 years it's been a radical change. in the relate in the whole attitude between countries as you know if you went back 5 years ago when you went back to present as far back as reagan they talked about engagement constructive relationship working with a changing china you don't hear that anymore steve this is you know there are very few things that unite democrats and republicans in washington d.c. but one thing that does is this notion that china is a strategic rival a great power. great power competition here competitor this is very different

language and same thing comes from the chinese and you know you're asking the question is it just inevitable that this happened or is it the nature of the political systems that it's happened but it's certainly that sense of being the have opposed to each other is rising and it's on the economic front trade used to be the thing that tied in together beautifully so interdependence which is very different from the cold war days of the soviet union and even that is become very contentious and so kind of solving this problem in a way that doesn't get us into conflict of some kind is going to be of huge challenge of statecraft do you think joe biden. because of his knowledge and experience can take us in a different direction to the can it matter where you think the forces of oil of energy of competition for acolytes out in the rest of the world are so overwhelming that it that a that a leader can change things i think biden is a stabilizer and will look to stabilize but

a lot of things have happened in the relationship the south china sea that i write about how calm the whole battle over technology the sense that there are risk in the economic relationship with china so you have both republicans on one side and democrats who don't like trade on the other side so i don't think it's going back to where we were when barack obama was there or when bill clinton brought trying to into their rule based system of the world trade organization way back in 2000 what i don't think is going back to that but certainly biden will try and stabilize it and the one area that the probably trying to work with china will be on climate but i think most the other issues are going to be pretty contentious now you talk about the century of humiliation with china and that is a driver a bit psyche and what its choices are but you also talk about humiliation in the middle east which is missy messy and rivalries and you know some of them real some

of them petty and i guess my question is why has the middle east turned out so differently than china with having so much so you know such a huge resource base it's interesting that you say that because i haven't quite seen that connection to that that theme of humiliation is politics too in a china sense it was a sense that we were once great our not i have this picture in the book of. it after becomes party secretary. first thing he does is he takes his politburo over to a museum to stand in front of an exhibit called the century ition and saying this is the past we're not going forward from here so it's a very strong chinese ashleigh and i think it is one country the middle east some many different currents and there are people you know a lot of it has been trying to overturn a map that was laid down during and after the 1st or 60 power and what followed from that. but so you have the people who just isis just want to cope back to

a different different world back to the same then you have the all export a country some of them trying to adapt to a different kind of different terms of what's ahead and you have the overarching issue of the competition back to your power competition between iran and saudi arabia and turkey for predominance in the region. you know one of the things that struck me is the scale of the chinese a gauge when in the world the belton road initiative your comparison of it to you know 7 times greater than the marshall plan where america bailed out europe and of course the nations had bailed out it was sort of an expectation that those nations were going to play kind of the global game our way. when you look at what china is doing in the world in the scale of it i think the message comes in very clear that america is sort of in trouble when it comes to influence in the world am i wrong i

think that's right i think that we've lost some of it and people are not very confident about the u.s. says it wants. you know one of the great strengths the u.s. has had is its alliance system having alliances that is pretty frayed right now and the belt and wrote is really this finally saying. if more of the middle of the world economy out i think that had a scale of. of it of a question but that but it's very m. 1.4 dollars and the belt road i have this map is actually hard but it's hard to put the map together possess so many different elements it's south asian it's africa it's europe and i have an exchange in the book in which president panama says to the president check part of delta wrote to and present china she present she said sure this is about connectivity so it is about economics it but

it's also inevitably about up about political influence and let me and if i can add one other thing about our interesting whether i'm in asia you know one could travel or talking to people like over zoom when it's in asia. in the middle east in latin america you hear the same thing now don't make us choose we don't have to choose between the u.s. with whom we have a strategic relationship and an economic relationship and china which is the most important market for our goods and that's you know that's just another aspect of this a people haven't looked at much but really struck me as i was finishing the book the number of voices you hear saying that other countries who are worried about the standoff between the united states and china i remember when barack obama came in the saudis came to me were so upset about the barack obama campaign saying you know that energy independence was

a goal of an america and it was within reach and they said that would be a terrible thing for us in the middle east and you sort of right that it was a terrible think that their relative who's act that the closer we got iraq obama started with richard nixon gerald ford jimmy carter ronald reagan george h.w. bush bill clinton george bush. and barack obama they all said energy independence and it all seem ridiculous i think even in 2008 when barack obama came in it did not seem very likely because people did not really that was 2 $1008.00 was the year that people began to see if you could apply shale gas technology toil it turned out to be incredibly disruptive technology transformed the market and stead of the u.s. importing 60 percent of its oil and the vulnerability or the sense of insecurity that goes with it you now have you the big 3 it's the united states russia and saudi arabia who sit astride world oil markets and the u.s. is the number one producer of oil and gas in the world 12 years ago unthinkable

what would have happened 12 years ago if the iranians even with a small attack attacked a u.a. e. ship or attacked saudi oil production facilities or if the united states had assassinated you know an iranian i or d.c. al quds commander what would have happened to the price of oil tell that story there would have been if any of those things that happen there would have been panic in the market the price of oil shot up it would have been you know dominated the front page what's going to happen what does it mean gas lines disruption in the united states disruption and all around the world the middle east the flames but we had a case study a little over a year ago where raining missiles went into the most important hardware in the world oil industry which is abhik facility in saudi arabia. now such a racket was able to fix it fast but the other side of it was also that the markets kind of it's a panic to panic for 2448 out hours because there's other bits in there called

shale and canadian oil and other things the market is much more diversified so there's an element of of energy security that in the scenario you described steve would not have existed 12 years ago so it is a big change and therefore since we have it kind of people forget it at least in this country in the u.s. forget about it and ignore it and take it for granted when it comes to this question of the you know the supply of oil and what not you know and they the paris climate accord in environmentalism how do the swim together. not to. the picture we're seeing in the last few months is missing september you had the e.u. saying we're going to be net 0 carbon by 2030 that you know japan and you have south korea the set it written this a candidate set it and you've got joe biden to set it so that tells you directionally where we're going and if you look at the growth of renewables

including renewables solar and wind they're going to grow there that's were a big part of the investment in new power facilities will go there just look at the numbers for asia 58 percent of the power plants under construction in asia today are coal and natural gas so directionally we know where the world's going to go we have a technology deficit to get there and that's going to take money in time to do that and i think carbon capture is called it's going to be part of the picture because it does you know you have an $87.00 trillion dollar economy in 2001 team that runs 80 percent on all gas and coal you can't i don't think you can just transform it you can change the balance and we'll have a more mixed system it will be more efficient how we use energy but we're still missing a lot of technologies we need to fully address including carbon capture. so what

about green new deal and representative octo cacio cortez and a lot of people i imagine we have some of of her fans watching the show today do they have a place in the new map or are they on the fringe well no i think they will be a very important voice. pressure group is the i don't ministration is it is he put together almost every day the front page he's have a story about progressive environmentalist or other groups complaining that they're not getting enough positions in the biden is ministration so there will be a bit continual struggle and i think there's a lot of momentum to this and you know you see companies adopting that's 0 carbon targets too it's just it's easy can say that what what's missing is the how. dan i want to get back into another dimension of the new map and that is the north pole which as as part of global warming has opened up

a lot of pathways and opportunities for russia to open a lot of new supply opportunities for china and creates ways to circumvent that you know complicated arena of the south china sea but best i can tell the americans have been you know on the sidelines what's going on in terms of america china and russia and what's going on in the in the warming north pole i think the u.s. has been ambivalent about developing resources in that region and just in the united states russia is not content ambivalent about it they've gone fully ahead to develop liquefied natural gas l.n.g. resources there they're going to make them one of the l.n.g. suppliers in the world and they see this not only from an economic point of view but from a strategic point of view great photographs in the book of this russian scientist who planted this titanium flag 15000 feet under the sea. just

hiding the space from russia russia sees it as it has their strategic territory and china is not going to be left out of the act that sees that as you say as an alternative to the south china sea and one of the amusing things in new math is that the chinese now talk about a color silk road and say that they're basically an arctic power too and they want to play because they send a lot of stuff from asia to europe and this is quicker and faster and they don't want to be left out so and russia of course has had a very long coastline the other country that has a very long coastline there is canada and the canadian prime is foreign minister when the russians plant its flag set that's 100 centuries how can you do it but the russians went ahead and did it and for that much 21st century well i think one of the other seeing any implications and i know many people. the oil and energy market you know wait for every word you say in terms of what's going to be on the future one of the really amazing things is because of kobe that it may diminish the

resources for investment in new coalitions around green jobs you know ernie monye is the former secretary of energy is interested in an energy jobs coalition around green energy opportunities and what i found interesting is you said boy will could very much be the scarce needed item even though time in the near term because of the lack of this investment in my basically getting that right yes well i think you know i think that to investment has really left the sector you know if you have to price collapses 2040 you haven't had returns to investors but it's gone elsewhere so there is one of access to capital plus some investors are reluctant in the sector anyway but we have to ask where with the jobs the number 70 percent of the world's solar panels or me i know other 10 percent by chinese companies elsewhere

so it's certainly putting solar panels and. so i think what we really need and what i emphasize and this is a study that we are any monies for this breakthrough energy coalition we need new technologies we don't really have technology don't come overnight you know the 1st let's see an ion battery tesla's here rashly in 2008 less an ion battery was entered in laboratory in 1976 when the world was going to run out of oil a column to get their wind and solar are a half century old industries but in wind and solar it's only in the last 10 years to become competitive and by the way they've become very competitive talk about the shale revolution there's been a solar revolution as well. you leave africa out of your map for the most part. litte lot of lithium perhaps in africa does africa have a chance to leapfrog onto the dan yergin next map because of you know that the

craze for lithium that we may see as more tactful like batteries come on and cobalt is democratic republic of congo's of sorts i do have the. book nigerian energy minister saying it's fine for than the villains and germany to say they're going to do this in energy. and intensity hundreds or people in the commercial actually asking the same to use indian away se as the emblematic story to talk about. but you do point to something very which is the ambitions around that's your own carbon involves so much building of things that aren't there now the wind may be free the sun may be free but you need a lot of minerals you need a lot of mining said a big oil you have big shovels and that means you're going to have new supply chains and how what you're pointing to where those supply chains how they're going

to work and you know china's that moves very fact sublethal have a dominant that dominates the lithium ion battery supply chain today so that gets us back to where we started talking about u.s. china clash and you know we've seen the battle over was the telecommunications companies in the battle over tick-tock our supply chains for green energy also going to be subject to this we don't know but i say keep your eye on that. you know oh your book is is just filled with great stories of people and i want my viewers to know that it's a it's a wonderful book not just about oil and energy in a very bland sense it's enrich by by human stories tinkerers obsessive compulsive types but when you go into a country like saudi arabia you talk about how a lot of that entrepreneurial spirit has not taken place because there's been sort of a caretaker

a nanny state you know in this and i'm just interested in whether you think a place like saudi arabia will eventually be compelled by circumstances you know to move in a new and different direction and where some of those stories when you were to write an update of this book you may see you know a saudi entrepreneur there match some of the you know other wonderful stories that you share in your book i think it very challenging. if ill with an uncle export or a natural resource export or it tends to crowd out the rest of the economy and so they have vision 2030 which is trying to reform the economy shifted to be less dependent upon oil it's pretty hard to do it because it's not just you know just the investment in the ground it's the value system it's rule of law it's it's what people believe is it ok to fail and one of things one reconcile the it's ok to fail and then start again and a lot of societies that's not possible it also turns out that if you really want to

get away from oil diversify away it helps to have a lot of oil revenues to do that and it hasn't that hasn't been very possible in the last 6 years so i think it's a challenge and you've seen some of the countries health area op with abi for instance that have been able to do that but it's just a challenge and it really takes commitment it takes an educational system that turns out people so it's not just you know you don't just sort of say we're going to do it and make it happen. but i think that if you look at the countries in the gulf region they're looking they're saying we have to do it because oil may still be a dominant oddity but it's going to be less dominant and less urgent and which are at the same time 70 percent of our population is under the age of 30 and they need jobs so you better diversify your economy just turns out it's hard. you know i mean is has finally dan when i was reading your book i was asking myself what other

kinds of major trends are happening in the world that could also develop their own maps and how would they over lie on the one that you described and i was thinking about really the rapid rise of populist nationalism looking at religion and proselytizing and the kind of the competition of religions globally as others have you thought it all about these other isms and how they either run into your view of the new map or are irrelevant i think that one i didn't dwell upon it. maybe maybe a couple of them one is the rise of the straw man who has a system that on paper is democratic but it's not democratic i think that's one feature the other goes back to a book i did called commanding heights which is. you know the embrace of an open global economy ark it's just. and the movement away from that and the distrust and

that ties into exactly the populism that you're talking about that somehow leach are managing things so i think such that's not there and you always i mean you think of all the changes from the last 10 years of the changes ahead but i tried to bring them together in the new map in the same time as you say with a lot of stories a lot of people and i'm very proud of the pictures i think this is the only book and energy ever written that has a photograph of the actor jackie chan in it but people have to look at it figure that one out but it makes sensitized to what we've been talking about exactly exactly well dan yergin author of the new map energy climate and the clash of nations thank you so much for sharing your candid thoughts with us today and i really recommend it to people and it's an incredible it does in fact help you organize you know what other otherwise looks like chaos out there and i think it

also creates some very sobering views on those people who do want to get to a more sustainable energy climate what the forces are that they've got to contend with but you lay out in a very sober way so dan thank you so much for joining us thank you steve it's great to be on with you i appreciate it. so what's the bottom line dunk helping one of china's great leaders once predict that the world will soon be one planet with 2 systems and he might just be right china is building its way to a global marshall plan that dwarfs what the united states did for europe after world war 2 and the belton road initiative well those are ties that bind and let's face it looking at the latest election results that elected joe biden but exposed the deeply divided usa we see lots of americans believe they fought the cold war but china what and they also believe that the world like donald trump kept saying is ripping america off there's an ambivalence about global engagement today so we shouldn't be surprised that china's version of globalization we can call it

globalization 2.0 could be the story of this century and that's the bottom line. the invitation to bear witness to that night softens the highs the numbers the unseen movements and every day new recruits witness on. one half scottish and half level east so diversity is really important to me and

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matter to you. a new strain of coronavirus in the u.k. forces millions of people to be placed under a strict lock down just before christmas. hello i'm adrian for the game this is al jazeera live from doha also coming up election on rest in the central african republic a former president is accused of attempting a coup the un peacekeepers are put on high alert. going up to my mother's household made me fears quite like there's not been easy i struggle with her.