when we were all very busy on christmas and my case organizing the local nativity trial roberts and many others think politicians like fisheries minister victoria princes could hardly care less and that's a powerful incentive for those who believe briggs it signals the end of the united kingdom helping to propel support for scottish independence to its highest levels yet jonah how al-jazeera glasgow. and let's take you through some of the headlines now the u.s. capital is locked down with unprecedented security ahead of the inauguration of president elect joe biden a military green zone has been established and 25000 national guard troops are being deployed at least 48 people have been killed in fighting in sudan's darfur region according to state media buildings were burned in the capital of west are

for state l. going into the violence broke out during a dispute between tribes hit morgan has the details from sudan's capital displaced people in the darfur region not just west are for a state that the withdrawal of the united nations african union peacekeeping mission known as you know made has indeed created a vacuum express only because they join forces that was created by the government which includes the police the military and the paramilitary rapid support force is a joint force that is not accepted by most of the displaced people but the fact is intercom violence is not needed are for even when the united nations african union peacekeeping mission was still active and had a mandate to protect civilians 2 female afghan judges have been shot dead in kabul their car was targeted when they were on their way to work it's the latest in a recent wave of attacks and assassinations the u.s. is reducing its troop numbers there. tunisian police serve with demonstrators

during a 2nd night of nationwide protests the crowds build barricades and set fires to block the streets in the city of silly honor the rallies began on friday after a video went viral showing a police officer beating a man and these are live shots of bourbon airport where russian opposition leader alexina valley plans to fly home soon despite threats he'll be arrested russia's prison authorities warned he'll be immediately detained once he comes back from germany he's been treated since being poisoned and almost dying in august of danny says it was the work of the kremlin which deny. the headlines the news continues here on al-jazeera after inside story.

the cold shoulder for a cold war treaty russia follows the u.s. by pulling out of the open skies agreement covering military surveillance flights will this make the world more dangerous and is the pact still relevant today this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program. one of the cornerstones of global security since the cold war is in danger of collapsing the open skies treaty allows countries to fly aircraft over each other's territories to monitor military activity but the 2

superpowers that established that pact no longer want to be part of it the u.s. completed its withdrawal in november after serving out 6 months notice russia says it will do the same arguing the remaining $34.00 signatories have made little progress on cooperation washington and moscow have accused each other of violating the treaty the announcement leaves the so-called new start as the only arms control pact between russia and the us that treaty limits numbers of nuclear warheads but expires next month so what is the open skies treaty in 1955 u.s. president dwight eisenhower suggested washington and the soviet union allow surveillance flights over each other's territories moscow rejected it at the time. decades later in 1909 george h.w. bush expanded the concept to include nato members and other european countries the pact allows unarmed monitoring flights to collect data on military activities the agreement was signed in 1902 and went into effect 10 years later with the

withdrawal of the u.s. and russia only european nations turkey and canada remain in the treaty the pact doesn't include military powers like china that a flourished since the cold war and critics say the planes used for open skies flights are outdated especially when countries can conduct surveillance with smaller and more advanced drones. all right let's bring in our guests in moscow pavol felgenhauer a russian defense and military analyst in brussels to reason fallon director of the center for russia europe asia studies and in istanbul matthew bryza former director for europe and eurasia at the national security council and a former u.s. diplomat welcome to the program to reset let me start with you what happens now i mean it's a 6 month process until russia is fully withdrawn from the open skies treaty correct. that's correct so this could be a chemist soft opening for the biden administration and it's it's really unclear

right now what will happen because we know that. the start treaty expires in february so this open skies agreement is seen as kind of. at the beginning of the whole negotiation for start is considered a smaller agreement as you mentioned in your program the issue of technology has changed we can look at google maps and see some of these things even though some of the planes would have more sensitive data collection so the issue on both sides of the aisle were that. for example russia wasn't allowing plates or any grab and so we see even the personalization of this trump is president trump is very upset with the russian planes flying over a russian plane flying over his. golf course and that mr so this may be a dated. agreement but it actually was important for building up. faith

in each other sites and as eisenhower as you pointed out wanted to make this type of agreements to kind of a confidence building measure but technology has changed very dramatically so the fact that thomas pulled out of 3 of these types of agreements is a bit worrisome the buy didn't ministration coming into power in just a couple of days has made it clear to allies and partners that it wants to work with them and so will he be able to nurture a better relationship even though in light of the recent hacking attack on the united states so it remains in the world has changed since it was 1st put on the table and the other issue is well governance issues trump made it clear that he wanted china to be involved in the start agreement so russia and china and since china has made it absolutely clear they don't want to be part of it so we have to work together with russia and china on new global governance issues i think this is the key for the new buy did it in a strange and pavol is there any chance that russia would be willing to rejoin the

open skies treaty and what would have to happen in order for that to occur. but right now it seems that the crown one has definitely decided to withdraw on a course that will take some time the 6 month period has not yet begun the note has not been sent to the depositary nations that looked ante there's going to be have both in the russian duma maybe and then signed by the president and hash of that the note will be sans the 6 month countdown will begin must fight when take maybe several weeks or something but russia's getting out i believe and it's some observers here in moscow believe that this is the direct result of president trump losing the reelection and the any hope that he might overturn the u.s.

action result are also lost and so russia decided to move. russian military and the muscle likely the crown one wanted to get out of open skies anyways but there wasn't especially after the that american territory became not to have any real blow up there as a belief that maybe even moscow could work this so that they put the american allies who wanted to open skies against americans who do not and try and give but the wages and the transatlantic relationship but now unbinding has definitely become the end it's obvious that the europeans and their americans under biden will get cozy yet they're using open skies to put way just in transatlantic relationship won't wear and then moscow decided to go out and so now moscow has that continually out there's talk that maybe if america comes back into the treaty

then russia would reconsider but that is impossible. matthew let me ask you to expand on what pablo was saying as a policy that there's talk that perhaps if the u.s. were to come back into the treaty that maybe moscow would reconsider a u.s. president elect joe biden has said that he supports the open skies treaty is there a possibility of now that the u.s. would rejoin and is there room for negotiation between the u.s. and russia on perhaps a modified version of the open skies treaty and yes sure there is a possibility that the u.s. could return and the president elect biden has signaled as you're just saying 100 that he is in favor of continued arms control even beyond open skies history so is saying president elect biden has said he would like to extend the new start treaty which is the treaty that limits the numbers of nuclear warheads and delivery system so missiles. and so on and that's

a position that president putin has also had which is he would like to extend the new start treaty maybe one year and then possibly go into 5 years so i don't interpret this move by by russia as sending a signal to the biden administration that we're submitting our notification that 6 months from once the note is submitted as pavol has said it hasn't happened yet we will then leave this treaty so therefore articulate it is if you like to negotiate that nuclear weapons agreement ok let's come to the table it with a fresh start if you will on a new start to reset that let me ask you this you know there are those who have said that. they've questioned you know how functional the open skies treaty is right now you were you were making mention of that in your in your previous answer me what function does a treaty like this serve in today's military landscape with the open skies treaty you have specific aircraft fitted with specific cameras they have to meet requirements some say it's it's all rather outdated at

a time when countries have access to newer drones and far better technology and cameras with higher resolution what do you say. i think that's a very good question i mean it the importance of this agreement was kind of a confidence building measure and as people pointed out we didn't try to reach out to the other european member states who really do like the ability to kind of see what's going on in russia and putin try to reach out and establish an agreement with them that they wouldn't share that information with united states and that imply and so i think that. we need to continue to to cooperate with russia or talk to russia and the biden ministration has made it clear that clemency is very important but the technology has changed and i think that this type of confidence building measure would be nice to see it continue but. as you pointed out does this agreement really talk about drones i don't know that absolutely equal ability about that and some of these things you can just look at google earth and see these

things happening on the ground for example even in changing the concentration camps there were identified and open source information with satellites so i think that it's part of a larger geopolitical picture right now in this type of agreement and how the u.s. and russia will work together and the key issue really is china and china does not want to be part of this as you mentioned it's $1550.00 were heads china has about $300.00 and they have no desire to join agreements like this at this point but i think over the longer term we really have to consider how to bring china into these little governance issues mathew i saw you nodding along to some of what teresa was saying there i mean since there is so little regulation when it comes to drones being used for military and surveillance purposes did open skies provide a level playing field for the signatories or does it provide

a level playing field when it comes to sharing of information when it comes to you know granting access to airspace. well i mean it is a level playing field in terms of the use of aircraft for overflights and i think you know there was a totally unrelated use of national technical means or you are satellites for observing each other's territories right that's not part of open skies and the reality is that in the last well since since since 1902 when it was 1st signed and since 2002 in open skies 1st was was fully active or implemented the u.s. satellite surveillance technologies have advanced dramatically and a lot faster than russia so to tell you the truth by maintaining open skies russia was actually having the opportunity to i would say to obtain some information that may not have been able to gather through its national technical means so but but leaving that aside to pick up on a point that jury so is just making on global governance or or on more broadly diplomacy for me diplomacy is a process it's not about it she having

a bilateral deal or a transaction as president trump often looks at a president trump famously said when he was talking about leaving open skies well the russians are violating it so if you're not going to stay in an agreement we're going to leave that agreement but diplomacy is about creating a network of agreements and understanding that lead to dialogue that that is more truthful more transparent and in the case of open skies what it did was provide a degree of transparency and therefore confidence on each side that if there were to be severe military tension that they would at least have a chance to have a channel of communication frew this visual imagery to be able to demonstrate that they maybe aren't preparing for military action pavol in your previous answer you mentioned the new start treaty this of course is the new strategic arms reduction treaty which is a nuclear arms control agreement it's the last major remaining limit on nuclear

competition between the u.s. and russia and expires on february 5th unless both governments agree to a 5 year extension do you believe that russia will agree to a 5 year extension and what needs to happen for that agreement to take place. well basically by ministration incoming and the kremlin say they want an extension and the treaty provides such a capability it can be extended one time for 5 years and without that occasion. but that she even that would be quite. not easy at all because of that there have just about 2 weeks 3 weeks. more 2 more work to weeks and the problem is that the biting them astray she comes in without any of it stop until a cabinet officials approved by the senate do you negotiate something right so

swiftly i don't know will they manage or not because then that if they don't then that goes to new treaties we don't really meant and that will require ratification in the american senate to service over 6 he certainly and senators note that in them the terms to a split are today's american senate yet in ratifying a treaty with the merkel it is going to veto threat the problem so they'll have to go head over 10 hours to just do that in those 2 weeks coming out i don't know what demands are not because there were different ideas one year extension 5 year extension with preconditions with some kind of additional declaration that doesn't lead back to it cation so you do have to stick around ratification process to get something done and it's not clear will that happen are not terrorists if new start

is extended or replaced that means that the world's 2 biggest nuclear powers the u.s. and russia will return to a time where there were no significant restraints on their nuclear arsenals from your vantage point how worrying is that. i find it extremely worrying and i hope that the biden administration i mean i've seen some discussion that jake sullivan because he doesn't need to be confirmed by the senate would actually be in the negotiators chair on this and if they could get it for the one year or the 5 year and avoid any sort of senate ratification that would buy everybody's time because obviously the biden administration and day one has a very very full inbox and i think it's very important to you know get this at better 5 years but at least the 1st year and just to kind of clear the deck a bit i think it's also in russia's interest to work with us on this because russia is clearly in a difficult economic position and they have other concerns i think that this agreement has served both sides well and i think both will benefit if they can

finally get china in on it so i think this is something both sides should work together on i think they were both benefit but if it doesn't get renewed we are facing a very and certain future and we've also seen for example all this week conjunction announced he has a new sucker a nuclear weapon so we're entering a new nuclear age. this period of peace is coming to an end if this isn't renewed and so i do hope very much so that the bided ministration has made this a priority it's been clear they have talked about it in the press that they do want to have this. extended and that's why it won't need senate ratification so that would be a very positive move and i hope that they are able to do that and so matthew we know that president putin and president elect biden have both said that they would agree to a 5 year extension of new start that being the case what are the sticking points here why hasn't it happened yet. well i mean it hasn't happened because the trumpet

ministration was not that which is still power by the way has not agreed has not wanted an extension of new start without russia agreeing specifically to of a freeze on new nuclear warheads a technical point but a really important one and in october the trump administration seemed to be wanting to overcome that obstacle there were some negotiations that picked up speed it looked that president trump wanted to have another diplomatic win if you will in the lead up to the presidential election and subsequently now where you know in a situation of utter chaos in washington and you know the biggest political crisis you could argue are you since the u.s. civil war which is by the way going to grind or is going to take up all of the senate's attention probably as it takes up impeachment 2nd basemen president trump coming up so so to make a long story short the trumpet ministration never got the ball over the end line with with russia and now we just have to wait and see how quickly the biden

administration can come up to speed bubble i want to take a step back and look once again at the components of the open skies treaty because you now have the 2 superpowers the u.s. and russia that if the pulled out but the treaty does not cover military powers that have flourished since the end of the cold war like china india pakistan when you consider that is the open skies treaty even still relevant. yes it has pres here is problems that has. problems kind of overall political problems because this was a treaty that was signed in the time of the. the. floria after the end of the cold who're when everyone believed that war in europe is totally impossible so to him think a bow and let's be friends and let's fly over each other and look out and there are things going to be just fine well right now it's not fine at all there's another

not. race happening buildup of forces and a possible war and europe actually can contemplate it and in this new environment this agreement is reality rather political reality it's also technically outdated the basic claim for the. open sky missions was the soviet on on a certain east pint with mass produced and some getting in and all were so bad countries hand it and now the former soviet republics and it and western countries could even actually loise those planes to yeah with finalists for such missions now these planes are almost all not bald the americans used certified to boeing planes that were 30 years old when the treaty us signed now they're 60 years old they have to be replaced and if america would have stayed in the treaty they had have to

hundreds of millions of dollars to produce and certify a spot waynes that are actually have no good for real purposes because that they did they produce is very not what the american satellites they get a resolution of say 50 times better than the planes under the open skies so it's become rather irrelevant and it's that's why the united states and congress didn't. to give that money back so the united states were actually more or less forced to go and with that russia is not interested i'm sure right now dressed that's left it can be will be left in the open skies is a better bill or oops ok paul and then maybe when you want to fly over belarus but that's a bit too italy for a big treaty and they don't countries flying over each other doesn't make much sense though so i'm afraid this treaty has it is is going to be rather do no

natural want to resize saw you nodding along some of what pablo was saying did you want to jump in. well i was based in beirut in moscow during this time it was signed so there was a great honeymoon period on the post cold war period with russia and as public has pointed out the strain that period is this is this is a relic from that period and we have increased strains now and russia. also because of crimea and these other issues so i am sad to see that as described as this relic of the past and it's doomed for the future but i think that. continued diplomacy is required and. i just hope that the tenure of the conversation will change under the biden it ministration because under trump administration there have been a great deal of tensions especially in the transatlantic space matthew throughout the show today we've been talking about the u.s. and russia pulling out of the open skies treaty we've talked repeatedly about new

start and whether or not it's going to be extended from your vantage point how much is all of this a blow to the system of international arms control. well you have had that is my concern i mean to a certain extent as we've said open skies treaty is is outdated and the new start treaty yes it provides commitments by each side to restrain the growth of their of their nuclear arsenals but they can undertake those constraints anyway without the new start treaty being extended so so what i'd worry about is you have a chart mystery so saying the trumpet ministration has has decided to pull out of these treaties also the enter the range nuclear forces treaty on the us as simply a jab at moscow so the action of breaking down cooperation and norms of cooperation which a fragile and very difficult to develop it takes years to develop a regime or a rule set of rules of cooperation and any issues like that and simply to throw

that those regimes out the window because you're either angry at russia for for misbehavior from washington's perspective or because you think in isolation this agreement doesn't make sense what that ends up doing is is taking away some of the guardrails that keep a very difficult relationship between washington and moscow out on the road when there's another sort of geopolitical crisis the regimes need to be protected to reset we only have about a minute left i just want to ask about how nato is reacting to all of this and how much of a concern is there amongst also these other signatories to the open skies treaty. at this point there hasn't been any statements from individual european countries and it was expected that this would happen but i think that with nato the recent interest in china so i call it use yet this combination of china russia that this is kind of becoming more prevalent so the europeans are tending to look at not just

russia but also combination of china and russia together this is something that has not really been seen before in this period so i think there is a growing interest or concern about china russia cooperation and what that will mean for the future of nato all right we've run out of times we're going to have to leave the conversation there thanks so much to all our guests pavel felgenhauer teresa fallon and matthew bryza and thank you too for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com and for further discussion go to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is at a.j. inside story from emergency room and a whole team here bye for now. the

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