tv Inside Story Al Jazeera March 31, 2021 2:30pm-3:01pm +03
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deuced, at least in this region, while the delicate balance that maintain the peace on the various well inside. now broken down, we had heard rumors that the government was going to confront the guerrilla, but would have never expected, such a brutal repression against the civilian population, especially by government that pretends to be revolutionaries. we lost everything. for years that river dividing the 2 countries helped contain fighting in colombia, it appears the economic and political crisis in venezuela has allowed that conflict to resume on the other side. a confrontation that one sparked might again prove difficult to tame. i listen to them. i'll just get out ok, this is all just there and these are the top stories in the coming hours. the u.n. security council is going to hold a closed door meeting on the political crisis in me and thousands of people are
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fleeing into thailand to escape the military's attacks against the current national liberation army. other rebel groups too, could soon be joining forces, what they call of evolution. if security forces don't stop killing unarmed protesters from bangkok, scott hardly explains who these groups are. what exactly they want. they're scattered all across the country. they have been engaged in these battles with the tatmadaw, the military in myanmar, pretty much since the establishment of the country. so when you look at armed conflict, it has been ongoing in the country, but what makes it very delicate now obviously, is because of the post-coup activity because of the violent crackdown on the streets across myanmar. so you have these ethnic armies that have had their individual battles if you will, with the tatmadaw or some of them have been under ceasefire. some of them had been in peace talks. but now because the words happening since the coup on february 1st,
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they're saying that they want to directly go against the tatmadaw, the government forces because of what they have been doing, not their individual fights. heavy gunfire was heard, presidential palace in the early hours of wednesday, 2 days before president elect mohammed gazans swearing in ceremony. yemen's who the rebels have rejected a leaked u.n. report suggesting they are behind in the tack on at an airport. airport. the security council says the missiles used were similar to those in the else will. i'm a 5 from areas under their control. the rebels say any findings without an independent committee, a biased and lack credibility into nation search crews have recovered the cockpit voice recorder of the passenger jet that crashed in january. it's up to could provide clues about what led to the crash. the headlines, the news will continue here on al-jazeera right after inside story. see you next time
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it's been described as a strategic deal. china under ron, have signed a long term agreements worth billions of dollars. but in a volatile region, what do both countries stand to gain? and what does it mean for the middle east and beyond? this is inside story. hello and welcome to the program. i'm dead, you know, it's been in the works since 2016 and dubbed a comprehensive strategic partnership. the deal signed between china and iran is
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expected to boost their long standing economic and political alliance. the cooperation would cover a wide range of chinese investments in iran's most important sectors, including energy and infrastructure. it's the 1st long term agreements if its type to be signed by iran, with a major world power and comes at a tough time for iran's economy. that's been devastated by u.s. sanctions. the patches signs in iran's capital to herat on saturday. that coincided with the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between china and iran. while china is iran's long standing ally and one of its largest trading partners, the 2 countries are believed to have shared an annual trade worth at least $20000000000.00 in recent years. and 26 deemed to run in beijing agreed to by that more than 10 fold to 600000000000 over a decade. now both nations have strained relations with the u.s. and are under sanctions imposed by washington. china's opponents say this
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cooperation deal aims to expand beijing's economic and political influence in the middle east. so ron is hardening its stance towards the u.s. and the european signatories of the 2050 nuclear accord and its demanding u.s. lift sanctions before it holds talks to revive that deal. well, the former president, donald trump pulled the u.s. out of the nuclear deal and re imposed sanctions on iran and 2018. and china is a signatory. as are russia, france, germany and the e.u. as a bloc. iran's president hassan rouhani has voiced his appreciation of beijing support for its iran's position on that. a court saying cooperation between tehran and beijing is important for the implementation of the joint comprehensive plan of action and europeans commitments to the deal and can change the existing conditions . well, china says the cooperation deal with iran does not target any country. the
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plan focuses on testing the potential as an economic and people to people, cooperation between the 2 nations and making plans for long term cooperation prospects in parts. it does not include specific quantified contracts, so indicators and it's not targeted at any 3rd party. it is believed that this plane will provide a large scale, a framework for future cooperation between china and iran. let's now bring in our guest in beijing. we have an art tangan who's a political and economic analyst into iran, hamad mousavi, a professor of political science at the iranian adversity. and joining us from brussels is to reason fallon, who is the director for center for russia, europe, asia studies. welcome to the program. thanks for joining us on inside story series a by laying out the strategic plan with iran. is china positioning itself as a great superpower and sending a message to the u.s. . or is it coming to iran's rescue with the nuclear deal hanging in the balance of
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the country suffering under u.s. sanctions? well, i think it's a bit of both. actually, we've seen a huge momentum growing. we saw secretary of state, lincoln's visits to japan and south korea as part of the revitalization of, alliances. then the meeting in anchorage between the chinese and the u.s., the 1st time during the biden administration. and that was quickly followed by secretary of state blink ins to nato, and then love visit to china. so this is part of a growing narrative at the same time, the e.u. imposed sanctions because of human rights abuses in shin john and then we saw it was very well coordinated because in the u.s. the u.k. and canada also had the same sanctions in regard to shin junk, so i think that this is part of a longer, wider narrative. imagine that this agreement has been under negotiation for quite some time, but the significance of it being announced on saturday in this momentous week of activity in regards to russia. in regards to china and the u.s.
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kind of allying with various groups. and in addition to that, we saw the secretary,, the p.r.c. secretary of defense traveling to serbia, hungary, north message donia and greece in order to kind of say that we will do defense cooperation with them. and also one of the chinese foreign minister was in turkey, all of this within the last week. so i think it's an incredible period and china always says we don't like cold war thinking, but it seems that china is trying to signal that they have these alliances. iran has long been a key issue for them on the belt and road initiative. it's a good match. iran under sanctions really needs new infrastructure and investment grabbed headlines, 400000000000. we don't know if that's real or not, but i mean, it would be some money up front for iranian oil. and i think that it also kind of throws a little bit of a wrench into the negotiations by didn't ministration, has made it clear they would like to see some form of a concession from iran before they begin further negotiations. right?
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terri's or as right. when she says it's been negotiated for a couple of years, because this agreement was, in fact, proposed back in 2016 by china. and there was a draft of it that was leaked to the media last year. but why do you think it's gone ahead now? well, quite frankly, i mean the, as teresa mentioned, there's been a momentous week. obviously, the key here is orchestration, the u.s. and its allies. you know, as biden said, he would, is trying to put together again of countries who are going to put china in its place. if you think about the parallels here, it's very clear that we're entering this kind of position of world war one when it ascendant. great britain was concerned about a rising germany and was making up all these alliances and things like that. in essence, trying to avoid a war. they stumbled into it. and this is the worry that we have here. but i would
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take one issue with which race is that, and that is this idea that it's china engaging in a cold war thinking if she acknowledged that you know, and we've all said that this is been orchestrated on the u.s. side, the unilateral tariffs have not been withdrawn instead, there's almost daily drumbeat of negative press actions against chinese officials, more piling on in terms of acca, nomics, delisting, the chinese companies. this can't go on and answered in this idea that it's somehow china's fault that the u.s. is attacking it, is i think a false narrative that there is. i'll give you the chance to respond in just a moment. but 1st, let's get the point of view from iran ahamed mousavi. iran is betting on china, ultimately, is this going to be a good bet for iran and how are people inside the country viewing it? so this is something very significant for here on iran has been under intense
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pressure ever since donald trump came into power. and unfortunately, the biden, it ministration is also following the so-called maximum pressure campaign. so your arms economy has been under a lot of pressure in essentially this agreement will give iran breathing space. it gave us pressure. it will give some leverage in potential nuclear talks. but the long term issue here is that you're on is signaling to the well, i guess that the more pressure they put on iran, the more iran will go into the easterly camp. and even right now, in iran, we have calls from the parliament that we should devise something similar with the russians. so i think if this trend continues, then you're on will become very closely allied with the russian in the chinese in any future. or if you say confrontation against the united states in iran, there has been some criticism in the sense that you're on
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a revolutionary slogan over 4 decades ago was neither peace nor west. so some people are criticizing him saying, why should we go into the eastern camp, or if we are putting that slogan aside, maybe it's better to join the western camp. but nevertheless, this is something that has been clearly supported by to a lot of harmony. the supreme leader of iran, so it's not even only the government of a son or army, but something much larger. go ahead and respond to what my guest from beijing had to say about china, sort of instigating cold war. that's what you said. in fact, he disagrees or about it and also to what extent do you think washington is really going to be worried about this? iran supply, the supreme leader back in february said the post u.s. era has started. i mean, is this politicking, or is there some truth to that? well, i think there's a bit of a future, bob in that for iran,
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because china's policies and change on might, you know, the type of reeducation camps as the chinese themselves have described them. you know, this causes a lot of friction with other countries and if iran is willing to turn a blind eye to that and to get investment from china, this might cause problems further down the road. we saw with one use visit in turkey. there was huge protests against what china is doing in sion. john, in addition to, you know, china has these agreements that they negotiate over time, and then they can actually agree to them. finally, at the most particular time in history where it has a maximum impact, we've seen that in europe with the comprehensive agreement and investment in e.u. china investment agreement. that was a long negotiated for 7 years, 35 meetings. and it was agreed in principle and december 30th under angela merkel, who had the rotating european council presidency. and german interests are largely in this agreement because of german car industry and other interests. ready in
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china, so i think that, you know, china kind of kept it down low burner until it had maximum impact because the u.s. administration had said, wait, we're coming in the new buy didn't ministration was coming in. there was kind of a trance, a period of transatlantic drift under the trumpet ministration, and the biden administration made it very clear it wanted to revitalize relations with allies. so by giving last minute concessions. xi jinping stepped in, gave last minute concessions to the europeans in order to get this over the line meant that in one sense they were hoping to buy europe silence. and so i think that's why the counter sanctions that china put on europe showed the scent of their anger. so the, the sanctions that were put in place on monday, the 22nd were quickly followed the same day by country sanctions, which actually sanctioned members of the european parliament. and the european parliament must ratify this economic agreement. and by doing that, they've actually alienated them. so try,
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it's kind of overplayed their hand not only sanctioned european leaders, they also sanctioned the political and security committee which is made up of $27.00. you ambassadors and their families are included in that sanctioning and they sanctioned in an entire german think tank. so they want discourse powers, well they want to say, we don't like what you say about china us, we're going to say action. even an academic institution in addition to that, they even sanctioned the head of the swedish think tank. so i think they misunderstood your very much because when you attack people who want independent academic inquiry into what's happening in china, or you have politicians who are asking what is happening in chincha. and when you say mission them this badly backfired because they're attacking freedom of speech and basic rule of law and even the very roots of democracy. speaking of sanctions and our tang, and i mean there are sanctions on china. and there are sanctions on iran. u.s. sanctions that is so how much of this deal can actually be implemented with these
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sanctions limiting how much chinese companies, how much business chinese companies can actually conduct in iran? well, they can conduct quite a bit. and with the digital you want, it will probably increase the traces, given a long narrative kind of a laundry list of things that she thinks are going on. i, i think a big effort, beijing's point of view, you know, the situation is sin, john. they see it completely differently. they see it as a necessary step and something that they've done in all parts of china, which is in essence to teach people the history and language so that they're not stuck in a backwater and unable to seek a meaningful employment. you know, their child is the one who's been taking people out of poverty. they have not been, you know, segregating people on the basis of who they are. they have trivial, just allow merilahti. i mean, same jangan as a topic that is an entirely different progress and there's a half dozen to feel
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a hand which is the deal between china and iran. it between china and iran. it's a cheap political shift you i agree with with her, my colleague from iran, they're looking east. how long that will happen? i don't know, but the reality is that the money is moving east oil energy is being used in asia at far greater levels. united states is in essence, pretty much, you know, self supplying as long as the price of oil is above 45 and they can use fracking. europe is another matter. they're somewhere in between. but yes, this does give a iran breathing room, hopefully will not be an excuse to continue with nuclear capabilities. that is not good for anybody. but there has to be a very clear and open stance on this thing. the fact, it's the worst kept secret in the world that israel has nukes,
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and is willing to use in the case that they are overrun. so, i mean, at this point, it really, if there is going to be a do nuclear station, if i around china, us are going to start cooperating along with russia or in europe. there has to be some absolute clarity here and stop with this kind of narrative that you know you're doing this in their prime responding. i would agree that china is stuck in this kind of tit for tat response to the u.s. . i don't think that that is going to solve anything. there has to be some more creative thinking and more thinking in terms of the international situation. you know, what's happening between these 2 powers is having an immense effect on the rest of the world and preventing in many cases, you know, real progress being made on the, you know, pressing issues of a climate change cope with not also the nuclear deal, which not counting just the moment of its ahamed. most savvy, let me bring you in here. what is this agreement?
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success depends on we, we don't know much except that it's about $400000000000.00. that's going to be spent over the next 25 years. and now agreements include the paving are for roads construction of poor communications, as well as military cooperation. what do you make of the scan pixels that we know of it? right, and so it was actually the chinese who asked for the details to remain confidential of the speaker of iran's government. made it clear that or from the iranian perspective, there was nothing secret about it. but from what we've heard from iranian officials, your promises $400000000000.00 of chinese investment in iranian infrastructure in this is supposed to happen in 25 years. whether that will happen or not, we will have to wait and see in return. china will get a steady stream of discounted un, you know, all, and i mean,
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even before this agreement, the chinese are buying increasing amount of uranian oil right now. they're buying almost a 1000000 barrels per day of oil. and this isn't defiance of u.s. sanctions. so this is very good for iran. also we're hearing that there's a lot of promises regarding the fence and security cooperation between the 2 countries. and i think this is something very significant. iran in china has a very deep economic relationship, almost to $20000000000.00. our per year of trade already. but in regards to defense and security cooperation that has never happened before. busy on a serious level, and if that actually materializes, then i think that is big a big problem for the americans. because that will make the chinese more involved in the middle east in the americans will have a potential power for a rival in the middle east. as we saw, for example,
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in syria when the russians entered the war, it really tipped the balance of power in that war. and i think china becoming more involved in the middle east will be very bad for the marriage kids. any potentially good for the u.n. . you know, what about the nuclear deal and are you could beijing be positioning itself to play a more central role when it comes to perhaps reviving the nuclear deal that the u.s. had pulled off out of. and we know that china does support iran? well, it's adults, it supports the j, c, p, o, a, it is not supporting any kind of military alliance. i think that is an, you know, a fallacy. and i am surprised that that's being pushed by my colleague iran. what they have said is there is a possible path to joining the s c o, but that's to combat terrorism. not to set up a defensive block. china has not entered into any kind of defense or agreements with any other countries. and there's good reason for that. they're not looking for
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a confrontation. so at this point, yes, china would be very interested in having the j. c. p. o. i put back in. the difficulty that you have here is that iran does not want to give any concessions other than going back to the, to the basics. they are very suspicious of the us and the us. similarly. so right now there's a huge trust that i don't know that china will be able to mend that. but if there were a 3 party, you know, way of making sure that, you know, iran is sovereignty was respected. that might help move things along. but that would not be unilateral, that would have to be guaranteed by all the major powers at terrorism. to what extent does this deal between iran and china, perhaps undercut washington's efforts to keep iran isolated? well, i think that china has had
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a really good ride in the middle east because they've diversified their energy resources. and so they, they receive oil from all players in the region, which is a smart strategy. and they've never been asked to choose sides. and as we know in the middle east, it's very difficult to do that. and as china intensifies its relations with iran, with this deal, i mean, they even have technological cooperation with the, with israel, which may be jeopardized. and you know, they're trying to balance saudi interests, iranian interests. and so far they've been able to do that saying we're only interested in business. we don't want to get involved in any religious issues. but because what's happening in changing it might push the envelope a bit. so how can china continue to say we're only doing business and have no other role in the region will remain to be seen. i think the j. c, p a way, of course, was not a perfect agreement, but it was the best that could, that could be agreed upon. and i really do hope that there will be some revitalization of that the new biden administration has said that they're quite
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interested in returning to it. but it, there are many obstacles to that. but as we see, iran is even closer to china. iran is moving closer to china with this deal, so that hope fades. and is there any space left for issues to be resolved when it comes to the g. j. c, a. p. o, a. well, i think that iran should be cautious because look what happened to russia if you only turn towards china that gives them so much more leverage over you. so i think a wise strategy for iran would be multipart, you know, multipart multiple partners and not just push themselves into a corner as what happened with russia, because that gives beijing far more leverage over them. and i think that it of smarter strategy would be to return to the j.c. . and elise have investment from other players including europe. and i think that would be a key strategy. i think, you know, linking their cart only to the chinese horse would be great, but detrimental to i mean,
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iran says that it is the united states that pulled out of the j. c. p. o a. but how mad most of it i'll bring you in here. because there is some reporting out of the u.s. that seems to suggest that the biden administration is planning to put forward a new proposal to jumpstart those talks, perhaps even this weekend. and that may include a request that iran hold some of its nuclear activities in exchange for some relief from u.s. sanctions at this stage. and after signing this deal with china, is that something that iran would accept promise? i think iran still wants the way to work. nevertheless, this agreement will make our iran less pressure to come back to the deal. but here's the issue regarding the j.c. p.r. way on the book. i don't, administration has made it clear that they want to renegotiate the deal. they want a so called. busy better at your and when they say better means better for the americans and more concessions from iran. and iran's position is that we are not
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going to renegotiate any part of the deal. i mean, the j.c. people. i was the result of several years of diplomacy. and just because the americans were true doesn't mean that they can renew you. we negotiated the issue of trying to jumpstart it. this week is that they are saying to your aunt, to stop enriching up to 20 percent. and in return, are they war lifts? some sanctions they haven't made clear what sanctions exactly, but, but from the iranian perspective, that's a nonstarter because you want once the america to come back to the do you hold the source or they don't want just some sanctions to be lifted. they want all sanctions to be lifted, and in return iran will also fully of lives by its side of the deal. nevertheless, the biden administration has not been willing to do that thus far. this egremont with china is actually showing the americans that iran has other options. and i think this is something positive for iran. and just to go back on the issue of
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military cooperation, when we say military for operation, iran's position is not a so-called defense pact with china and iran does not expect to go into war with the, with the united states. i don't think anybody wants that. nevertheless, i think in the long run, iran can become closer to the chinese, especially since they can buy military into equipment from most countries, they have no choice other than to rely on them and on the chinese regarding its military. ok, we'll leave it there. thank you so much. thanks to my guests and our tangan had mousavian to reserve alan, thanks for joining us. thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, al-jazeera dot com for further discussion. you can go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a.j. inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter or handle is at a.j. inside story myself and a whole team here in doha, thanks for watching by for jumped
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