tv Inside Story Al Jazeera April 3, 2021 10:30am-11:01am +03
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and then finding it all clicks that explains all the difficulties i've been having all my life because i'm autistic to predict wired differently it's not just a western condition the films explore those difficulties and provide support for parents struggling with autism they're available on you tube so somalis around the world can see and learn jessica baldwin al-jazeera bristol england. so this is out there these are the top stories and gunshots have been heard in miramar streets as the military carries out another crackdown on anti coup protests at least 5 people have reportedly been killed in 3 different cities on saturday the chain has more from bangkok in neighboring thailand where in the past we've seen the armed forces rather sort of hiding behind the police services the pictures that
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we're seeing from that crackdown just show them in full battle dress with their automatic rifles acting against the protesters the police actually seem to be standing back there so those attitudes are changing but the protesters are still ongoing at least 50 people died when the train collided with a truck and he rolled in taiwan prosecutors to question the driver and owner of the construction truck rolled on to the real truck it is taiwan's worst rail disaster in 7 decades a veteran officer in the minneapolis police department has testified that the level of force used on george floyd was totally unnecessary richard zimmerman said that floyd was no longer a serious threat once he'd been one coughed a police officer has been killed and another injured when a man rammed his car into a barrier outside the u.s. capitol complex in washington d.c. the attacker was shot and died in hospital.
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in haiti of kidnap to post 3 worshippers during a ceremony that was streamed live on facebook members can be seen singing before dropping the microphones and hunting a man with a rifle then storms the church and takes away somalia's military says it's pushed back an attack by fighters witnesses say 2 army bases were hit about 100 kilometers from the capital mogadishu while the government says most of the attackers were killed the armed group has also claimed claimed victory it says it captured the bases and dozens of somali soldiers were killed in the fighting family 102000000 americans have received at least one dose of covert 1000 vaccine more than half of people age 65 and above all fully vaccinated but more than 60000 new cases have been reported every day this week. with headlines more news here announcer right after inside story after. the former police officer charged with murdering
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george floyd is now on trial. for the world watches this historic case unfold in minneapolis we'll have live coverage from inside the courtroom as it happens and the latest reaction to derek children trial on al-jazeera. u.s. president joe biden is reportedly with moving military assets from the gong even as washington still considers iran a what in the region is this a shift emitter a strategy and what does it mean for security in this volatile area this is inside story. hello welcome to the program. u.s. president joe biden has ordered the pentagon to remove some military forces from
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the gulf that's according to a report by the wall street journal at least 3 patrick anti missile batteries have reportedly been withdrawn including one from a base in saudi arabia biden has pledged to recalibrate u.s. saudia ties since taking office in january including freezing the sale of some weapons riyadh uses in the war in yemen but his administration also says it does not want to destroy the relationship it says it will still continue to help the kingdom defend itself against increasing attacks from yemen and iraq saudi officials have not commented on this why the americans say the decision was taken to meet military needs. will bring in our panel shortly to discuss this further but 1st let's take a closer look at the us mr president of the gulf. as of late last year there were about 50000 american troops across the region that's down from about 90000 of the
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height of the tensions between donald trump's administration and iran in 2019 in a tolbert that year the u.s. deployed nearly 3000 troops to assad's arabia but now with the possible removal of the pattern it anti-missile batteries and permanent aircraft carriers up to several 1000 military personnel could also leave soon. let's bring in our guest in washington d.c. douglas ollivant a retired army officer and senior fellow with the future of war project america in london andrea scrag assistant professor in the defense studies department at king's college london has also co-author of surrogate warfare the transformation of war in the 21st century also in washington has seen
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a senior resident scholar of the gulf states institute in washington while come to you all douglas is the u.s. with thinking military positioning in the middle east or is it just a simple act of reorganizing military assets. so i think there are 3 different things going on here one is a simple matter of military necessity the number of patriots and to a lesser extent aircraft carriers that have been put in the gulf is simply unsustainable even if we wanted to retain that kind of presence it's simply not sustainable the surge that level of assets for about long think 2nd this is a message to the region that the united states is rethinking its military posture and that the region is no longer the united states priority and i think interestingly a more subtly internal to the u.s. government this is a message from the white house to the pentagon to central command to those who do middle east policy that the united states government is giving
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a push back signal inside the government to those who do the military to those who do middle east policy that again this is no longer a priority all right under us for many this could be an indication that biden is delivering going to election campaign promise he made which is about the need to rethink the way the administration should be dealing with saudi arabia. well yes i mean it there is it's a very much a tight group walk there by the by elements in is doing here because on the one hand there was the promise that they would you know kind of rethink it recalibrate the relationship with the crown prince who have been so man and trying to put some distance between the administration and the crown prince and obviously making it clear break from what happened previously between trump and m.b.'s especially with the report coming out about at the same time obviously the bottom it stretches douglas road rightly said you know the united saudi arabia remains a very important strategic partner of the united states so you know you have to
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strike a balance and i think that's what biden is trying to do the message that was sent or last week already that the u.s. ministration would only support offensive support for the saudi military to ensure that they cannot use them of any material support offensively in the war in yemen again is part of that but obviously now withdrawing what are essentially defensive weapons and weapons that are used for the terence against iran i think sends the wrong message at the wrong time saying is yemen one of the main reasons why the americans are rethinking their military presence and particular support for saddam radio because they have biden himself has been critical during the campaign of the of the war in yemen. yes but this is not a manifestation of that everything my colleagues have said is exactly right and the word iran finally came up at the very end of my colleagues last comment to me and i agree with everything douglas said about internal and external messages and all
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of that's absolutely correct but i think the biggest aspect that is roughly the u.s. policy is being reflected here is the desire to reduce tensions with iran yes there is an overall. intention to draw down from the middle east to redirect to great power conflict with china yes there was an unsustainable surged in 2019 of the last 6 months of 2019 and into 2020 against you know but why was there surge and that's being drawn donna what was precisely because of a rising tensions with iran that was the result of the clash between maximum pressure and maximum resistance from iran and i think the administration is pushing very hard to move away from that posture of confrontation with iran so i think other u.s. policy toward saudi arabia have reflected more the desire of buying and other
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democrats to draw a new relationship with saudi arabia ok recalibrate based on yemen this i think ultimately has to do with posture towards iran douglas hossain spoke about the iranian angle in this particular move and this is a problem i think from a sound perspective and from many leaders in this part of the wealth trunk came in and he said you know want obama messed up a big deal in the gulf region and that involved in the iranians i have to show them an aggressive push by then comes in and says i need to show some sense of towards the iranians the sound as well definitely say you know what this is the wrong message to send this particular time because it just ultimately would further embolden iran. certainly that's the saudi method i totally agree with what again both of my colleagues here on the program have said this is an iran and partially that's the internal messaging i was talking about
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central command and again the pentagon officers that manage the middle east have been seen as the ironic hocks and so i think this is a message from the white house to the iran you know the central location of the hour on hocks inside the united states government that this is no longer the intention of the white house to keep up this level of tension although as we all know they're kind of struggling to find a politically acceptable way to downplay that tension andrea could it also be a realisation among the top strategists in the u.s. administration various about time to downsize the presence of the u.s. military in the middle east because realities on the ground have completely changed so why should we be bowed down in this part of the world for other. i think they're on this kind of path of there's some sort of path dependency that goes back to the obama administration where the u.s. has said you know we are now delegating the burden of conflict of the middle east
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to our partners in the middle east and that also means help to self-help it also means that saudi arabia has to take care of its own security its own defense military aid will be provided to do that and we see the saudi military when there is one branch that is good in the saudi military actually operational and effective is actually the air defense of ballistic defense units of the saudi armed forces which have been trained and supported by the u.s. military and at the same time it's about you know burden sharing and meaning that the u.s. will no longer carry the burden for defense of the gulf and that's the message that's been sent to partners in the gulf all throughout the obama administration but also kind of through the trauma administration despite some rhetoric if you look at action on the ground it meant the united states no longer look at the middle east as strategically most as this duty the most important region of operations and that means local partners have to adopt more of that burden has same but this is the problem with the a strategic review of force placements around the world this is something that the
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americans did in the past but they have to. backtrack and send even firm more troops into the region particular in 2019 with the bar with iran. you know that means that can easily happen again look the united states is a bit overstretched globally and so there has been an intention i would argue going back to the 2nd george w. bush term to draw back from the middle east in every president obama in 2 terms and trump in one term and of biden wants to redirect from the middle east in general and the gulf in particular and pivot towards great power competition with china which is absolutely right in syria the problem is that the gulf region is the beating heart of the global economy and the south and east asian economies that are at the heart of great power competition so if you pivot to asia you pull the gulf with you in tow plane in a certain sense and you can always back away entirely and leave
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a vacuum or open the door for further chinese encroachment but that carries its own costs the other thing is that there is a downside for the united states to burden sharing it's great except that yemen is kind of exhibit a in what burden sharing can look like you say well you guys take care of it and saudis go ahead and intervene in yemen and now the united states doesn't like the way that looks and i mean i think for very good reasons but the point is there is a mixed message here which is you do it no no don't do it your way do it our way but you do it ultimately doesn't fit together very well and i think a balance still has yet to be struck here ok douglas one of the key components of miniature positioning for decades was basically the presence of military bases that's where you would send troops equipment what pens bracing for what could happen next could that also become obsolete in
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a way or another in the near future because when you say that you are putting out withdrawing one of the questions they how to bear in mind what shall i do with bases. well you bring up a very good point we've all been talking about the obsolescence of our strategic assumptions you know all these you know conventional forces are really good at deterring conventional threats but there really aren't any in the middle east anymore it's hard to think of 2 armies internal the middle east that might clash with each other you know the threats that come from iran are nonconventional it's their proxy forces it's their missiles and potentially their nuclear forces none of which respond very well to an aircraft carrier so it's time to have some serious rethinking about both managing our presence in the gulf and our competition in the gall i mean and we just saw in the last week that china is moving very forcefully into the gulf but they're not doing it with a military presence you can't counter
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a china iran on trade agreement with another aircraft carrier so we're going to have to have a lot more creative thought as to how the united states manages its presence and conducts its strategy in the middle east region. the problem here is that's when you with joe or when you every calibrate you give the people the impression that you're living a weld in order and moving to another look to weld but you know look at this bottom of the well it's still the same set of challenges and problems isis is still very serious still having problems yemen is still a nother issue libya said another as you're talking about a world that needs to be put into order be full of it forward. well to be honest the middle east is of probably a greater state of instability than it has been over the last 2 or 3 decades but beyond that i think the us has already gone into a new phase of engagement in the region and that's one of what i call sorry wolf in
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my book which you know this is how the iranians do it delegate to local sorry gets let them fight on your behalf and the u.s. responds by saying we delegate to local partners and local non-state actors to fight on our behalf and rightly at that that said an aircraft carrier doesn't have anything any kind of weight in that sort of sargon confrontation but then at the same time as the americans are saying you know they want to push back against china and part of that great power game the issue is as they're going already at the grocery touchable the issue is the chinese actually struck some very strategic deals with partners in the region 1st and foremost the the deal with the iranians which is a 25 year strategic relationship based on up to 400000000000 dollars dollars of investment from china to into iran they struck a deal with the with saudi arabia where it's about investments into agenda 2030 again billions of dollars of investment and they struck a deal with the u.a.e. which is about you know creating a vaccine within within the u.a.e. that again you know it increases the foothold of china but the fall of the chinese
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in creasing building in the region is not one that's based on the military domain it's a whole of government approach and again that's where i think the americans aleck and the americans don't understand how to do a whole of government approach in the same way that the chinese do if you suddenly decide that this is about time for me to consider for example china to be the long term security challenge for the united states of america this is something that will definitely have to have some implications on the way the americas have to really reorganize themselves and build up their presence in different parts of the worlds. i mean no question and everything that my 2 colleagues have said is exactly right but there is one exception. to the asymmetrical threat pattern that douglas has described which is maritime security in the gulf there's a big dispute among american strategic thinkers right now about whether the 5th fleet and the permanent stationing of large naval forces based in behind in the waters of the gulf is necessary to maintain maritime security in the gulf waters
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itself that incredibly crucial economically crucial waters of the gulf and to keep the strait of hormuz open whether you think you need that kind of presence or not somebody is going to have to create a security structure that ensures the free flow of commerce through the strait of hormones and an orderly system in the maritime waters of the gulf right now it's a combination of ad hoc understanding's backed up by the presence of the 5th fleet if you want to shift away from the traditional model you will have to figure out a sustainable long term modus vivendi to ensure maritime security in the in the gulf waters. otherwise the u.s. i think his naval presence going to be necessary to continue douglas if we are to shift away of the americas also shift away from that model that has been prevented for quite some time in this part of the well could it be an indication that perhaps
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the arctic the pacific and the could be the next battlefields where the americans would have to fight for their supremacy. i don't think battlefield is quite the right word but certainly the united states is going to be competing all kinds of places with the chinese and again my colleagues have more of us on this correctly you know we don't the united states is not configured for this every chinese aid and development worker sees him or herself as the vanguard for marker chinese business i don't think anybody in u.s. aid thinks that way but they need to start thinking that way up we're serious about this whole of government approach i'm going to differ slightly with inhibition on the presence of the great i think the united states are still thinking as a energy consumer and not as an energy producer look texas is competing with markets in asia which is competing with saudi arabia for markets in asia to export oil and in some ways the 5th leaders underwriting the geopolitical risk bind saudi
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arabian oil i'm not sure we really start thinking strategically that that's going to make sense particularly for texans under that's the argument as i was referring to go ahead go ahead. and no i'm just saying that's precisely the argument that i was referring to that many people are making under arrest biden made it quite clear that he will definitely need to be build ties with nato and we're talking about nato which talking about russia the same time because that's where the what's the thinking has been focusing for quite some time which is the need to contain the russian build up could this be an indication that in the near future would be seeing of the americas dealing with 2 key players here watch on the one hand china on the other. i don't see any of that engagement happening when it comes to when it comes to russia quite in the country i think it's one of confrontation but again russia doesn't feature i mean when we speak in europe obviously europeans and nato
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partners in europe constantly talk about russia not so much about china i think there's a huge divergence there between how this prep reception of china and europe is a different one than the united states when it comes to russia there's a different set in in the united states then there is in europe so i think it's europe is more confrontation towards russia us more competition when it comes to china and i think there's a huge divergence within nato of how to deal with china and this. during this period you know because there are a lot of european partners need to partners as well we're opening up towards china becoming part of the one route one built initiative selling out very strategic assets to china and there is very little that the united states can do about it so the competition is about an alternatives are not saying that you know china is a substitute in the u.s. but it's supplementing and that in itself could be a long term threat has sent this is one of the problems with shifting the burden of defending territories particularly overseas you have 2 options here either you start training those troops like in the case of saudi arabia or selling them war
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advanced weapons to be able to defend their own territory the carving out here is some of those weapons could and being used the wrong way and this is the dalia. yeah and in fact the yemen war already shows that something used necessarily in the wrong way but from the point of view of many americans in in in the wrong way not necessarily for the wrong purpose but in a in a way that's counterproductive and ineffective and even and at times morally indefensible ride so at the same time if you're really going to shift to burden sharing you're going to have to accept more of that than you want striking the balance is very difficult i do think it's important to say that the by no ministration is working on the got this tiger team going this ad hoc group of defense experts to look into more sales training and technology transfer to help the saudis defend themselves the line between offensive and defensive in the military is very very blurry. douglas we keep talking about armies of as if they
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were into it is disconnected from this part of the world when you look at our modern life challenges pandemics and climate change are perhaps the biggest challenges that we are facing don't you see that this could be the moment to rethink the very notion of armies in their substance in the form in their identity and in their mission. well certainly and i think in some ways we already see that you know as it related to earlier it's really hard to picture a conventional war in the middle east today you know it's it's very hard to imagine iraq picking up invading kuwait again it's almost impossible to imagine syria or egypt trying to launch a ground attack to invade israel those are just not things that are very thinkable 'd 'd in the region for a host of reasons peace accords lack of capability the instability inside the
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country but nonetheless it's more or less unthinkable and so the security challenges are very very different the one thing i do want to respond to is that you know as we build up saudi and other gulf states saudi amorality etc military capabilities we have to reason that the we have to realize that ironic sees its unconventional capabilities its missiles its support of proxy forces as it's counter to those capabilities so as we move into a place where we start to imagine negotiating with the iranians about their missile program about their support for proxies what are the gulf states going to be willing to come to the table and negotiate with to give up indeed and one thing we know about states is they don't unilaterally disarm under asked if it ought to move forward into the future it seems that with difficile intelligence we won't be needing hundreds of thousands of troops and cost carriers in a more in the near future it will depend on the extent and what kind of smart
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weapons you would have. absolutely yes so that's my whole point about if you look at gray zone operations that are taking place everything any sort of competition at the moment in the middle east as everywhere else is in the gray zone and you know the synergies that china is building are not just in the domain of trade and economy but also 'd in information technology share sharing and synergies particular between you even china the integration is around information technology so already china has kind of proof or is providing the u.a.e. with capability that you know the americans are not sharing with you e.u. and these kind of synergies will be more important moving forward against you in a time when the u.s. is entirely focused on on conventional military german will how to live in the douglas ollivant under ask i really appreciate your contribution and your time thank you and thank you to for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website dot com for further discussion go to our facebook page that's
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facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter our handle is a j inside story from a hashemite about the entire team here in doha like ana you. looking to reassure people in indonesia the government lifestream present joko widodo getting the country's 1st chinese scene of back over 1000 vaccine the 1st nation outside of china to grant emergency use thailand malaysia singapore and the philippines have all placed orders this despite a wide range of data on its efficacy from the early trials of the vaccine some south east asia countries have not yet approved the jab this has led to some questions about the vaccines stemming from the lack of transparency and data the chinese regulators do not want to give up their control if. there are more but it would give up a certain amount of control thailand is looking to start vaccinating high priority
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people with the scene back jab some here feel as though the lack of transparency around the vaccine is not limited to trial data you have a major type of c.p. group taking a stake in a company that produces side of back like some of its neighbors thailand is ordering vaccines from other companies as well. on counting the cost the bank has finally had enough of brazil's president green bones how the world plans to reduce carbon emissions and vast tracts of land back to nature plus europe's rush for battery technology. counting the cost of the. april on. from a 3rd wave to the vaccine rollout will bring you the latest developments from around the world a year into the coronavirus pandemic one who want to. find the scenes access into the secretive world to japanese soon. could president either be secure
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a 6 time in power join us on april 11th for the chat election. the award winning our choice returns it's to receive them striving to be juice or negative impact on the planets has president joe biden kept his campaign promises we'll have special coverage and in-depth analysis of his 1st one. brigades in the oval office april on al-jazeera. cakes of the best documentary films from across the network an al-jazeera. xenophobia violent and beating the drum for an ethnic civil war in the heart of europe. generation identity was at one time the fastest growing far right organization on the continent now watch the investigation that led to the french government banning the group. generation hate. part
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one of a special 2 part investigation on a. holding the powerful to account as we examine the u.s. its role in the world on al-jazeera. security forces it may have opened fire at times uku protesters killing at least 5 said military intensifies its crew. 11 o'clock this is al jazeera live from doha also coming up taiwan prosecutors push to make an arrest for a train crash that killed at least 50 people while the president visits the area. a city on edge again a washington d.c. capital a police officer is killed.
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