well of the nepali congress most likely. if he can muster support and get the numbers he could be the prime minister or at least to keep you all to himself who is still the largest party in parliament he could become prime minister but even that will not be. a long lived. long lived prime ministership because in a month's time they have to get a confidence vote and they may not get it so at that point the door will be open for elections according to our constitution what i personally believe might happen is that we will have elections in in the fall sometime and because none of these permutations and combinations will work and if that is that there would be elections the tragedy is that. we already had poor governance and we have a pandemic that is actually reaching ok to commit dorian's and the commission rounds of our burning here to ok as it is out we are we are in

a crisis thank you so really good to talk to you kind of brought me to accept that in kathmandu. this is ours era these are the top stories this hour health officials in gaza say that 9 people have been killed in strikes in the northern gaza strip it comes on a day of increased tension the armed wing of the palestinian group hamas has fired several rockets from within gaza towards jerusalem setting off air raid sirens throughout the city and across central israel brigades had issued a deadline for israeli forces to withdraw from the al aqsa compound or face attack 330 people were wounded earlier when israeli forces stormed the compound in occupied east jerusalem they fired tear gas and stun grenades palestinian protesters to hold stones and other objects. meanwhile

organizes all of that israeli march to commemorate the 1967 occupation of east jerusalem have cancelled their rally to have however been smaller groups of settlers and right wing activists who've gathered on the streets but the main march involving thousands of people was called off. and it shakes. the neighborhood that the heart all of the current on unrest between israelis and palestinians there were arguments and confrontations between members of the israeli knesset who were visiting right wing activists and palestinian protesters it centers on whether several palestinian families will be forcibly evicted from their homes off the living there for generations to make way for israeli settlements. and there's the headlines more news for you here on al-jazeera after counting the cost next.

and welcome i'm peter w. watching counting the cost on al-jazeera your look at the world of business and economics this week beyond petroleum time is running out for oil producing countries to get their economies in order as the world transitions to green technology we find out who the winners and losers are as global geopolitics are redrawn. also this week where the self driving cars they were predicted to be on

the road by now we'll talk to the founder of a startup was found a niche for his self drive technology. rich nations can spend their way out of the pandemic but it's not a level playing field for all countries colombia's efforts to raise billions for new taxes a scrapped after deadly street protests. the transition from hydrocarbons to renewables is gathering pace it's a transition that has the power to reshape geo political alignments as many countries become more energy independent policing energy chokepoints that c using political capital to cover for me is regimes and catering for volatile energy prices could become redundant there wouldn't in theory be a need for military bases in the middle east for those periodic calls for regime change or an all out conflict. the united states has already reduced its reliance

on middle east oil thanks to the development of shale oil and gas fields if there was any doubt priorities are changing president biden is pulling troops out of afghanistan and shifting his administration's policies to the pacific and in particular to china mr biden also certain new goals to cross emissions and has received commitments from other world leaders that the oil producers on notice and there have been more warnings u.k. energy joint b.p. forecasting a peak in oil demand within the next few years as the world transitions to clean a fuels that is backed up by analysis from energy consultancy wood mackenzie says consumption would begin a steep drop as early as 2023 it went further to say global oil prices could drop to around $40.00 a barrel by 2030 if governments push to reduce fuel consumption in step with un backed plans to limit global warming that will be

a huge shock to the budgets of the oil producing nations revenues have already been falling in 2019 oil revenue in the middle east half to 5 175000000000 dollars from more than one trillion in 2019 according to the i.m.f. even before the pandemic many oil producing countries were burning through foreign currency reserves to pay their bills saudi arabia has seen its reserves fall from a record 7 $137000000000.00 in august of 2014 to $428000000000.00 in february of this year so what does that mean for the oil producing nations well risk analysts very risk mabel croft believe algeria iraq and nigeria will be among the 1st casualties of a slow motion wave of political instability over the next 3 to 20 years he goes on to warn that time is running a friend girl or gab on and kazakstan who fail to diversify their economies away from exporting fossil fuels. so let's talk to the author of that report james

lockhart smith head of market risk at various maple craft he joins us on skype from geneva james welcome to come to the car so your headlining 2 countries here iraq and nigeria what's the direction of travel for them do you think we think in this case you know they're really examples of a broader trend and the. entirety of mescal exporters across the world and who really had 2 major perhaps 2 major takeaways from the research and the 1st was despite a little ground cation despite the paris agreement and 2015 despite the oil price crushing 24 seeing i really compelling prolapsed policy and price signals and almost no progress has actually been made yet in reducing or exclude dependence so once you control the variation in commodity prices very few countries reduce their level of export and that's really and you have norway and qatar and although a man managed a base as well that's what he's doing more with production problems than the health of normal exports in those countries actually double down on oil exports to plug

that revenue the 2nd takeaway i guess is and this is linked to why we've seen so little progress so far is that diversification is really hard and many if not most metal exporters are going to struggle and so nigeria and iraq are representative of that group a trend that people honorable countries and if i if i could just sort of unpack that's a little you know if you're a country that has built your economy and your political system your social contracts around producing and exporting oil and finding another way of generating revenue presents a double challenge the 1st challenge is economic as you call it bill clusters of expertise 'd technology bring in s.d.i. with technology transfer everything you need to build alternative and valued industries and the 2nd challenge is political actually building consensus across the science and political elites the changes to happen changes that may threaten the best interests the muscles that are really hard countries on you know white actors that always. a rational choices but collections of individuals that often

disagree and then we have a context where it's essentially too late for it was really gradual energy transition and so the probability of more abrupt shift away from all in major consumer markets in the years ahead has increased ok you mentioned the gulf countries there at the beginning of your answer your tax cuts are and i'm on for different reasons how the g.c.c. countries doing when it comes to diversification. they're actually doing relatively well so far i mean if you look at it you know you see at current absolute export mixes all over see how you can still major as it was in your shares and for example in the case of qatar you know you can see it sort of trying to kind of creep up on the metals the metals rally chain as it were but they have seen a key point is that you know there was certainly a day of showing slightly more diversification in recent years certainly in the case of qatar oman and actually u.a.e.

as well as a very important and positive example but then looking further for what they do have the institutions in place the house and the political will as a senior level to be able to make and make those changes but of course this comes at a very big and carry out so that. there's a distinction to be made between political stability in general and then political fragility so. for example saudi arabia has one of the highest tail risk probabilities for extreme political sore in the world you know in our data despite its stability today and then you consider that you know certainly in our research recently we were looking at external breakeven so what countries need to pay for their in court so in a future of the tension the soft all oil prices you could still see a lot of downward pressure on standards of living and successful diversification itself could also be politically disruptive by our pending you know more traditional sort of all economy social contracts barack obama's much vaunted pivot

to asia never happened joe biden is definitely purposing in that direction absolutely what does that do to the relationship between the gulf the g.c.c. and friends of washington within the g.c.c. we will see in also what i saw just bringing about energy transition and aging we see an automatic connection between the u.s. pivot away from the middle east and towards asia and the energy transition per se because you know anything. as you alluded to there are many many different variables at play and you know washington is making the track you lay should on surprising that china is by far the most significant challenge that the u.s. faces geo 'd politically and then you have a long running changes in domestic political preferences in the u.s. for a less and less interventionist role ongoing on the world stage and on the energy side it's certainly true that u.s. dependence on middle eastern oil has reduced already but that is an associate or at least more as a result of the u.s. shale revolution than because of energy transition but we will see a future under energy transition where the middle east does become less that it

will to us curriculums that in line with you know the latest policy music scene us in washington and that would certainly result in geopolitical changes in the region now those you political changes could actually be positive insofar as once the permanent guarantee of unconditional us support is removed that leaders have to start talking to each other because they no longer have you know in the case of u.s. allies they no longer have that sort of moral hazard of being backed by washington whatever happened so it's been very interesting to see you know comments from holland and solomon a few days ago around wanting better relations with iran following reports of secret talks and of course that well i was there can be now that there is still going to be many obstacles to conflict resolution including you know because of the role of. iranian in particular proxies throughout the region and just considering that we're dealing with very complex multi actor and conflicts but you know on the whole we do expect a reduction in. u.s. influence there and we do expect it to have a role in changes and i think more generally less influences from the u.s.

is also going to mean more and more hedging by key u.s. allies so you know for example saudi arabia is interested a few years now in securing chinese investments and not in iraq or james thank you very much thank you. for the. mosque forecast that his electric vehicle company tesla would have self driving cars. on our roads by 2018 well it hasn't happened probably due to the difficulties of mimicking our complex human behavior and very intuitive skill set that you do need to have of course to drive a vehicle despite that there are numerous challenges to tesla including alphabets way most general motors crews toyota and honda to all have yet to start making and trying to sell in any meaningful way so for drive cars and that's even before we think about governments around the world green lighting the necessary legislation wall street tech giants and the manufacturers have spent billions of dollars in the

pursuit of the ai holy grail and all fighting for the same piece of road but artificial intelligence and automated vehicles are also being trailed in other areas of the economy amounts an area that 3 year old start up a drivers is pursuing with the automation of vehicles used in ports well by ports well the $17000000000.00 a year industry is suffering from labor shortages and his technology can be retrofitted to existing vehicles so let's talk to the founder of ai drivers rafi swore she joins us now from london on skype rafi welcome to counting the cost so why are ports an easy starting point for this kind of technology and yet thank you for having me obviously ports the immediate focus for autonomous technology if you could a desperate meets for a mobility automations and where these areas are privately or administratively

behind. the fence areas so that the support from there and all prices and also. the simplicity out there actually finites the environment complexity our moneyman on either hand that operation complexities are a lot sophisticated compared to our site areas so there is. areas could be easily i don't shape it and short or autonomous me pretty why did you target the ports industry why not try to work with say the airport industry airports have some of the leading edge technology for moving planes around isn't there a natural overlap there or even i'm thinking about railway stations for example as well yes your area rights and airports also requires or has a similar into structure as ports but. then many more. the mobility that the maximum safety measures for airports are very huge because you're

moving to aircraft which is multi multi 1000000 worth and on the other hand in a seaport your meeting containers and amount of containers move. a few millions every day compared to a montauk aircraft moves around your saying and you've said in the past that you think your valuation will be $2000000000.00 in a few years time on the face of it that sounds like a lot of money but with with respect to you that's chicken feed compared to the big big big hitters who are trying to get in there how do you play catch up. i'd like to say that we are already ahead of many companies out there trying to get your technology out on the roads because they are not just behind try to see how this technology can be implemented but they're also behind the regulations of this technology can be incorporated or authorized or regulated on the on the public

roads by the area that we operate obviously we have a huge demand tough needs and wants from our order prices and also we already understand why is this technology can be incorporated and regulated in this environment so if we can incorporate that within the port industry and implement this correctly safely and reliably and then this can be extended to our side as well so that brings us to probably ahead of many out there that they are missing that initial or fast stage of implementation knowledge special purpose acquisition company spec why did you use it to go to market specs other recent and if it's a toy if taking a company is to i.p.o. and obviously we can see that drivers had that. compelling business operation for a spec i thing we are looking at something. you know when the time comes you never

know we have a we don't have to go through some creative we are going to i.p.o. because that god has a very substantial. value to provide for the industrial side so we do have a very good. compelling business operations and technology for both spec as well as i.p.o. so at the moment we are going to end the stage whichever comes fast or another hand that maybe we will never lets to be gone that route maybe some other company will be in charge interest to match with us or acquire or other purposes of taking our experience on their board to accelerate the of development. you're clearly facing the same challenges that everyone else in this still new technology is facing how long until we can reliably use self drive cars i mean you're in

london would i get into a self drive car to go around the m $25.00 at 70 miles an hour peak rush hour right now absolutely not if you came here would you drive around doha in a self-drive car at peak rush hour probably not not comfortably anyway i mean lots of things have got to change something not least public perception of control yes and there are and said 20. will come a series generalization of the traffic flows in a public area because you are always find someone. may not follow the traffic rules and require the true intelligence at the moment that there are sufficient computing powers and i can do almost complex processing decision making a lot faster than how human probably think when it comes to processing large amount of information it's obviously humans are extremely clever when they are doing the

reasoning right but when it comes to navigating in a complex environments on the road on the road but there are if we look at run a simplistic way you have a set of rules that you have to follow or change of lines you know which line connecting which line and understanding those lines and then understanding the object on those lines how the army behaving right if this can be put in place and enforce it the way they speak majors are implemented to get human drivers to respect the route traffic flows today we have a speed to speak cameras they are majoring our streets speed on the we call we have to drive you know as expected in the shop you really cannot drive too fast too slow by. as we are growing in this area and we will come with their their the traffic rule or law enforcement where people should drive you know respective to the traffic rules and the autonomous technology will be implemented to follow doing the

rules so when everybody doing you know what part responsibly and this technology can be provided with the reliability and safety ok we have to leave it there affix wash there in london thank you very much thank you spend spend spend your way out of the pandemic is the advice from the international monetary fund and the world bank that may be possible for rich countries but many nations are under pressure to figure out ways to repay their debt built up during the health crisis attempts by colombia's president even do k. to push through tax increases that would have kicked in next year have been scrapped the country's finance minister resigned after days of protests against the plans that left at least 17 people dead it was heavily criticized for punishing the middle classes at a time of economic crisis while the 2800000 people fell into extreme poverty last year half a 1000000 businesses have closed and the government's debt has soared to 108 percent of g.d.p.

over the last 10 years including spending on the pandemic the government needs more revenue to reduce the budget deficit which is predicted to hit 9 percent of g.d.p. ok let's get some analysis now with hiero lugo a condo director of executive and graduate education at northwestern university here in hiero welcome to counter the cost to what degree was the tax increase an ideology from the get go from the very beginning. well this is the 3rd attempt that the government has has had to to try to improve the finances of the on the fs into chaos before and then and did not find the 2nd census remember that if government. is funded by law your qualification that. that was able to keep him in power and with the support of several sectors in the country and a yes of course if

the government misjudge the plan and have little consultation and when you try to pats people for the eggs that he can expect out of a backlash and however the government itself is confronted now i've been thrown and it's probably finances remember that. there is an increase in external debt that junk almost $20000000000.00 'd in one year. and that creates panic among the credit thus of columbia. rices the risk of that debt and of course the interest that they have to pay and also see as seen on the crease in the main income that that country has with which its exports. in 5 for the 2nd year number will be a phase a deficit in the balance of in the coming on national finals abberation this year something like $2000000000.00 in deficit which is for a country that leaves from export is

a very big deal so the government tried to do is this. tax reform in the country where every where most of the burden was put upon the middle and middle and working classes and and not enough was being done that we took to avoid tax evasion so yes it reflects a bit of ideology but also reflects a bit of the of the challenges that the government have in front of itself how on pop. is the ruling party and of the scenes we've seen on the streets a reaction to that yes of course we could and government in colombia is becoming increasingly unpopular. he had just got 2 3 nephi's previous minister of economy and m. and a has a point that. 2 holes are more conciliatory voice trying to gain some political space but he's losing a lot of these are lies and you can see the polls suggesting that stubble paper

will become to their left is a hate now in the in in most of the polls and some predict that he could win and not only the 1st but the 2nd round of the presidential elections and so yes it's not very popular you know very few people to be in the cabinet at the moment and to get house there and not shown himself to be. skillful in front of the people with opinion and implementing the program us. political meant of course or also all of the former president about a leader mr petro however has said he will simply print money to pay the bill of the covert pandemic that's quantz to be easing but what that means is print cash put into the economy and everything is ok for a matter of months but if you carry on printing money there are negative consequences to that. of course like me in inflation and in of course you know we

all remember that their way mt republican in germany and that's something that many governments have in the mind of and by people who the government in colombia because coleman has lost on tradition with a few exception of in bengal sort of in its finances so. a a pederast party one of the 1st. presses who openly is talking about a a more can you approach and how we see what that lets in that in places like the neighbor in venezuela where the government printed and printed money and about the money were this that with less so so i would i would advice you know if i was a position of vice i would advise to be very careful about that but that the policy of course wanted it even at the moment if necessary in many countries they didn't let and that's what also model has done in president for example where he printed

money and this or that money through social programs that's why i also doubt will even though he's right wing it's a right wing government is not facing the same type of protests that you're facing in that in colombia when you got in colombia it's a government that wants to finance its way out of the crisis by simply printing by m a steady good program in a position gandhi that who wants to get the it's way out of the crisis by printing money so it's not a neither of them are in at the place of the moment i would say you know this type of crisis our interest by increasing productivity by improving the conditions in the wealth of people at the same time and by balancing the economy and those are things that are very hard to do in the middle of a of a crisis and having having said that you know duke has done some very interesting things with economy that possibly might be complete it might be able to

come back but politically he's not at the moment 'd in a strong position and he could be facing various you just challenges hiero a condo thank you very much. thank you. for this week but there's more for you online at al-jazeera dot com slash c.t.c. that will take you straight to our page with entire episodes for you to catch up on . that's it for this edition of counting the cost for me peter dhabi and everyone on the team here in doha thanks for watching the news is next. the world of high frequency shed trading exposed and there's an engine that was

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plus thousands of up programs the winning documentaries death these are folks. subscribed to you cheap all it's lost al-jazeera english. health officials in gaza same 9 people have died in violence as tensions escalate between israelis and palestinians. stun grenades and tear gas was used inside the compound as israeli forces broke up a sit in a palestinian bushels. of i'm a tree and forgetting this is al jazeera live from.