to me is talking to people understanding what they're going through here. we believe everyone has a story worth hearing. ah, me. you want, you know, just bear with me. so we'll run into a reminder of our top stories. tens of thousands of protesters in brazil have returned to the streets demanding the impeachment to president john bolts in our overs handling of the current viras pandemic. brazil has the well 2nd highest f till but baltimore continues to down play the dangers of the virus. he's also a subject of a corruption investigation linked to a contract to buy vaccines mulkey and a key if has more well, the protest here in rio de janeiro is almost over, but really there's an error. 2 was not the only city where there were just for. 2

us are all over brazil. some are starting later. i can so follow. people have come to those trades for the 3rd time since may, basically they have, they are very angry at the way the government has handled the pandemic. over $500000.00 people have lost their lives is the 2nd largest death toll after the united states, with the difference that in brazil, vaccine roll out is not as fast as in the united states, and that is another accusation. they accused the government of having all delayed the rollout of not having accepted offers my pfizer, for example, to buy vaccines off last year. now these protesters also for the 1st time they're showing something different. what they're showing is corruption. so far, president, you both have been accused of don't play the pen damage as i said,

but he has not been linked to corruption scandal. now, for the 1st time, a corruption scandal is might involve him. will he be engaged? will this lead twin page for a while? there are $120.00 teacher requests. and just a couple of days ago, there was a collective impeachment request made by not only as a bonus, but former supporters and center. right people, us president joe bog misspending part of the july 4th holiday weekend, encouraging people to get vaccinated. he's a michigan to highlight the country's progress against coven 19 as part of a nationwide america's back together. so not more than half of the us population has been vaccinated, but the government will not meet its goal of inoculating 70 percent. by this weekend. russia has recorded its most ever, deaths from kevin 19,

and the single dance of 100 is the 5th the record day in the room present, vladimir putin remains reluctant to pay national lockdown despite surging infections with easy to navigate. now, as you can see, the vaccination campaign is gaining momentum and is progressing fast and we can see it here. this vaccination point in the last week, the number of people who got vaccinated has more than triple counted as military repairing for evacuations as wildfire spread across british columbia. more than a 100 fires burning after record breaking heat wave, gripped the province. hundreds of fled, the destruction. musky workers are searching for more. have gone missing. the imprisonment of former south african president, jacob zima has been delayed after the constitutional court agreed to hear his challenge to a 15 month jail sentence he received last week. zoom has asked the court to overturn the ruling thing that he could be exposed to cobit 19 in prison is only defense, visuals of concern to cargo ship has been attacked in the northern indian ocean.

the vessel was on its way from the inside, the rapier to the united arab emirates. no one has claimed responsibility into a ball england down into the 1st european championships, semi final for a quarter of a century after beating ukraine in rome. it didn't take long to get to have captured, hurry came to school just after 4 minutes and it was to nearly a 2nd half when louis short free kick was invited to hurry. mcguire minutes later came the 2nd of the night to put his family control. but they wouldn't finish their substitute henderson had it in his 1st of england to make this going on in england . well now go and play that most at wembley on wednesday that a check republic to one earlier in the evening. and of course you've holiday stories on our website, on dessert dot coms, updated through the day. more news and half now with me, but next it's the bottom line to stay with us here on, on chaverra. oh

i i on the planet and i have a question with donald trump back in the limelight, who should be more scared? democrats or republicans? let's get to the bottom line. ah, how long has it been since you've heard this voice? we won the election twice. and it's possible we'll have to win it a 3rd time as possible. yes. spoke to the 2nd coming of trump or the 3rd, depending on how you count the former president is back with a vengeance. and from your reaction to that clip, you can tell where you stand on the american political spectrum. do you long for the time when he filled your days and nights with parts of his grievances, personal pet, peeves, culture wars and anger? or is it the exact opposite?

and you're wondering why we're still talking about him? well, love him or not this week. donald trump's been holding campaign like rallies around the country, repeating the big lie that he won the last election, promising revenge against the republicans that don't agree with him. vilifying immigration and immigrants, and of course blasting the media and the democrats and throughout all he did. what he does best tease the media about whether he'll run for president, again in 2024. so is it a smart strategy for republicans to indulge trump and tie their future to him? but at the same time, is it safe for anyone to pretend that he doesn't exist? today we're talking with one of the democratic party who leading political strategist. so linda lake, who advised candidate, joe biden countless democratic candidates over the years. and it's the president of her own pulling firm lake research partners and dan hopkins, professor of political science at the university of pennsylvania, whose research focuses on american elections and public opinion. it's really great to have you both here. so let me start with you, and i'll just ask you the same question. who, you know, we had president trump back in ohio,

then back to the border is going to be in florida. who should worry more of the republicans or the democrats about his, you know, returned to rallies. well, i think the american public to worry the most because it's a return to the division and strive and personal politics that a lot of voters remember, we won by 7000000 those rejected in this last election. but i think the democrats should be worried if they ignored him, and we don't, we don't take for granted. or we also have no idea what kind of impact you'll have on the off year elections when he's not actually on the ballot. and the republican should be very worried that they are taking a short term fix. that is a long term addiction. dan. i love to get your views on this, but i was very, very taken with an article that you wrote recently and 538 my audience. i'll tell you, go to 538, dot com. and you can read his piece called how trump redefine conservatism. and in

it you taught start with the story of senator pat to me for my audience center. pat to me may not be a household name, but he's important. he's a senator from pennsylvania and he used to be the face of then new conservatism, anti tax, you know, really a hard core conservative. well, i had a friend who have lunch with pat to me today in pennsylvania. and they were talking about that towards this friend was a leading brand name, democrat who lamented the loss for the country of pat to me. so i guess if pat to me has been moved to the fringe, what has happened to the republican party? i really appreciate your pointing out that study. and yes, senator pat, to me is my home state senator here in pennsylvania in 2004 pat to me primary and almost be a long time incumbent republican arlen specter. and you're right for years with the face of republican anti tax kind of fiscal conservatism. but with a study in

a study that i did with my colleague cons, know all. we found that very quickly after trump emerged on the political scene, political activists right and left, started to define who is most conservative, not in terms of traditional tax spend politics, but instead in terms of politicians, relationship to donald trump. so in our april $22021.00 survey, what we found is that the politicians who active it's rated as most conservative were consistently either president for president trump himself or those in president trump orbit mike pence. josh holly and i think that is a testament to the fact that donald trump, through running and servings president for 4 years, did manage to redefine and who, who is conservative and who is not like my home state senator pat to me right now we seem to have the civil war is going on both party. so the real question i have for you is one of the preeminent pollsters and political advisors in this country

is, what do americans want and are the parties as we see them today, realigning reorganizing themselves in ways that are going to be very surprising for us. well, i think that one of the things is that everyone has remarked on, it's just how polarized everything is and people are really struck. i mean, we can take extremely positive policies, but at the infrastructure, viola, the family back, and you just put it in front of it. joe buys plan the infrastructure bill and we get republicans switching for me for the thing by 60 percent to be against the thing by 67 percent. so it's really striking how part of suddenly polarized things are. i will say that the democrats are not very divided and when you look at the polling data, 8695 percent of democrats are behind are united actually. even when there's somebody that we might disagree with on

a one end of the party or the other democrats are united with getting this plan forward, moving the country forward and they're really remarkably united behind the agenda. i think one of the biggest questions out there, it's whatever. in 20222024 way to young people start to take over. the electric went in 2024. they will be the biggest share of electric jans. the years are bigger than millennials, people don't realize this, but the jim, the cohort that is coming down the pipe and doesn't all vote right now and all eligible. busy is going to be bigger even in the millennials, combined their style of the democratic and everything that the republicans are doing right now. to sure, i'm trying to reinforce their party to save themselves in the short term. makes it harder for them to win this both. and the use vote in the long term, the culture award, the cancer culture, the racism in tolerance,

the transgender politics, the women's rights, all of that is making it much, much harder to hold on to these young voters. so before we go broader, can you tell our audience what the age ranges for gens ears in millennials and are they all democrats? are they split? you know, do you have divides within these gen z and millennial voters that are coming online as a really good question? and there are some disagreements. i love my colleague, dan here to to jump in as well, but the young voters are generally considered either under 39 or under 34. and the molar. and the gen fears are considered to be under $24.00 under $22.00. there's some treatment because it's the cohort, but that gives you an idea of who they are. there are divisions, obviously bank divisions by education by race, some of the same things that promote divisions among older voters. but what ever

cohort you're looking at. the younger voters of that cohort, whether it's college educated. busy or rural, or small business owners or whatever you look like the younger people in that go harder, significantly more democratic than the older people in that cohort. and that includes on issues to like young evangelicals, very supportive of climate change politics. so again, whatever covert you're looking at, whatever demographic group, when you look at the young ones are significantly more democratic. overall, the cohort is about 60 percent from democratic right. dan, how the dan, how do you look at those divides, dan, how do you look at those divides and, and, you know, when you, when you sort of look at what this next generation coming on was, you know, to you for whatever it's worth. and you know, it's basically a small slice of life. when i look at donald trump at these rallies, i do see a lot of young people, but i don't know how what, how larger,

smaller percentage of that is of all young people, but your thought. so these are great questions, and i think one of the things to know about younger generation is that they are the most ethnically in racially diverse generations as melinda, sad. and so, even if young generations simply voted in the ways that they're older compatriots did within their ethnic and racial group, you would still see because the younger generations are more hispanic, more african american, you would still see them, meaning, democratic. it's also interestingly the case, the generations often carry the experiences of their kind of late adolescence in early adulthood through for generation. so you can still see today in registration statistics and in partisan identification, the echoes of roosevelt of eisenhower, of kennedy. and i think that one of the cylinder was saying, you know, this doesn't mean that the democrats are destined to win elections or republicans

are destined to boot them. but it does mean that there is now a generation entering the electorate who means democratic and debt. i would expect or certainly 20222024. those voters who, you know, under 30, who are just coming into the electorate, are going to lean democratic and going to help the democrats offset losses. they may have with older voters. well, let, you know, part of the reason i really want to do this show with both of you is that donald trump is back. he's, you know, maybe, you know, i think he made less headlines with his return than maybe a lot of other people you know, hoped for. but nonetheless, he's back and he's sending signals that he might run in 2024. and it's linda just said, at least he's trying to influence the race in 2022 and to let your ear or the smartest democratic pulse right now. as you kind of look at 2022, you know, you've got to 50 to 50 balance of senators the united states senate,

and i think what you've got 5, i don't know the number, but i think it's about 5 feet or something. the house. do democrats understand that while they hear your numbers and the demographic change, they're really in a fragile situation. they totally understand it. and i think democrats are very, very concerned about the 2 year where voters just decide, well, let me balance the president even if i like him, were very, very worried about structural changes like jeron and during, and the voters suppression. and of course, there been more loss and damaging was passed than ever before, which shows the republicans there were a do, were worried about winning down ballot races like attorney general's. and so the secretary of state because they can determine a lot what happens with the elections in the state. so i think that there's a lot to be concerned about in 2020 to one of the reasons we're talking about modifying the filibuster, kathy things to reconciliation. is i think the democrats salvation will come from

delivering results. and some of those results will be with republicans, and some of those results will be without them. and then those republicans are going to have to explain why did you vote against the subsidy chest? why did you vote against child care tax credits? why did you vote against elder care for my mother? and they're going to really have to explain that to women. dan, is there a reckoning coming for those republicans who voted or didn't vote the way? so linda said, i mean one of the reasons i like your piece so much is a great analysis you are, you didn't run away from the politics of it. and i'm just asking like in this moment, if, if attorney general bill bar is no longer a good republican and he was like one of trumps biggest. if vice president mike pence is no longer is now booed and call the traitor and they have, you know, pictures of a hangman's noose with mike pence on it. i guess my question is, on one hand that seems scary. on the other hand, maybe democrats, this is a good side show and that, you know,

you kind of look at the country in the independence or out there say, well, let the media or alive. wow, well, there's a lot there. i think. one key thing to keep in mind is that and so linda alluded to this very, very reliably, the party that holds the president. he loses seats in mid term elections. right? there have only been 2 exceptions in the last 90 years. so for our audience, just let me interrupt. so for our audience, mid term elections, we're talking about is 2022 next year. so just wanted to punctuate that point. go ahead. absolutely, and i think what's critical to know then is yeah, the democrats go into this election facing headwind having to defend senate seats in traditionally republican places like arizona in georgia. and at the same time yeah, clinging to a very, very narrow house. majority right now. and facing the prospect of redistricting. that could alone tip the balance even before we you know,

the voters get their say. i think it's also really important to distinguish the periodic. you know what happens in elections when millions and millions of voters get to cast their views from the what's going on right now, which is positioning within the parties for a much smaller audience and activists in journalists. and i think that when we thinking about donald trump's kind of return to prominence, to rallies and whatnot. one of the critical questions is about the maneuvering within the republican party. is these fights over who's going to define what the republican party stands for? and i think that what we should expect is, in 2020 to the democrats arm are likely to lose seats, certainly in the house of representatives and quite possibly in the senate. and so i think that there may well be a reckoning, but the extent to which a reckoning comes it's going to come more from long term and intro party dynamics. then i think it's going to come be delivered from voters who, you know, everything we know about republican primary and general election voters right now

is that, you know, donald trump is, is their idea of a very, very strong kennedy. i appreciate that. so linda, as you know, i've spent some time with president biden, when he was vice president. i interviewed him a good number of times. and i, you know, i think if truth be told, he basically thought that in the, in the last, in the election of donald trump, it hillary clinton, a donald trump, is going to pull it out because he said to me, you know, in an on the record the democratic party had become a party of snobs that it looked down on people that it had forgotten how to connect with real people and their suffering and where they were. and so when you kind of go through many of the rights causes, you just laid out and others, and you kind of like, i mean, i know this over simplifies if you take brooklyn, new york, which used to be street. but now it's become pause and you try to take brooklyn is the frame that doesn't look like something that has an on ramp for a lot of americans? does the democratic party and its structure even under joe biden, still have

a snob problem. i think it does have a snob problem and that comes particularly when it's around the economy because number on the voters are more interested in the economy. then in what doctor's this book, their kids are reading in school. now if we engage in debate back, then we become part of the problem to what's good news is the republicans are running on that and, and joe, vice president biden is not taking the be. he is focus solely on cobra and the economy and getting the country going again. and we have a game changing opportunity here. if we kind of knew were covered. and if we can pass the jobs in the family plan and people see us better on the economy, then we will change politics. 7 the country for the next 10 years, up and down the ballot. democrats do not when, when we're not ahead on the company. and in 2016 we were behind on the economy,

is one of the reasons we lost. so pulling up on who's going to be good for jobs, who's going to be good for your kitchen table economics, your pocket book. this is a game changing opportunity for us as there's one person in america who really gets that it's president by dan, i'm going to ask you to respond the same thing, but i want to ask you slightly different. i spent a lot of time with republicans and democrats, all different levels and colors and flavors and around the country. but one of the things it becomes very clear to me is that the way that people on different sides of the aisle is it's define. now donald trump conservatism, what they care about, how they look at the government, you know, how they look at the wars in afghanistan, whatever it may be, it's very different. you know, it's, i wouldn't even call it partisan. it's just gravity works differently on this side . at from way gravity works on this side. and, you know, i think a lot of people recklessly call this the cult of donald trump, or the maybe they, you know, talk about the q and on conspiracy. they talk about eap angelica's,

which may all be part of that. but my question to you is, isn't irrationality on their side, on, on the republican side, or are there authentic, you know, genuine dimensions to their support for president former president, trump, that are rational and logical that the other side is not understanding. that makes sense. it does make sense, and i mean, one of the oldest questions i could go grab many books from my bookshelves right here on this question of whether we think, you know, is the public rational. i think that maybe one way to frame it is that republicans are interested in a set of cultural, often symbolic issues. they are some of the issues that our foremost, particularly in the minds of some republican activists, are not actually the subjects of public policy. right to donald trump mere waves when early in his term, he attacked football players who wouldn't stand for the national anthem. now he wasn't considering any executive action,

any legislative push related to that. it's simply a symbol of where we are as a country. and i think that one of the challenges is that the republican party, certainly the, the trump wing of the republican party, which has been ascendant, is very interested in a set of issues. you know, we mentioned dr. seuss somewhat viciously, but is interested in a set of, of cultural issues. i think critical race theory that are, to some extent, not the objects of public policy. and so i think that we to, we also do ourselves a disservice if we focus on today's hot issue on twitter and, and get away from it. i think so, i was making this point in a way by, by pointing to this and charlie, the economy rate, voters are not engaged in the day to day attacks. they happen on twitter or even on, you know, every forbid on, on, even the best. you know, television shows, right,

but voters do engage on the question of what is the economy look like? how is you know, how the president and his or her party doing? and i think that, you know, those of us who follow politics religiously, want to know what ted cruz said this morning or where he flew on vacation. but for many, many voters politic is not the 1st thing. it's not even the 10th thing on their minds. and i think they come when we get towards election, they're then going to ask themselves the kinds of questions that the lender was teen up about the conditions of the economy about how the 2 parties are doing. but i think that politics is that you might think of it as a kind of play where there are a few of us who are watching very closely. but most of the audience is out in the lobby and missing most of the screaming. thank you, linda. you both have said today that, that in quino, classically, historically in elections that mid term election that 2022 election is usually a balancer against the president's party. and so we have this coming up this linda,

you know, you're not helping the republican side to need to see the future and see in the christ of all your out. the democrats are there things they can do. you've talked to in the past about health care, but are there issues or framing or scaffolding that can change that historic pattern in your view? significantly enough. so that, that donald trump serge, which we're seeing right now with him coming back when you effect it, is less significant than it might otherwise be. yes, and i think the administration is doing a lot of that. there are 3 things we can do to point number one when the and i think this administration is trying as hard as it can when the economy and it's not when the macro economy or when the number of the council of economic advisors is when the economy a kitchen table, the thing we can do is get out our boat and we need to re, i, our boat is not debating whether to vote for joe biden or somebody of our, our folks drop off more and off year elections. we had some turnout issues,

especially because the coven and getting out our boat is going to be absolutely critical. and then the 3rd thing i think is that to elect donald trump the donald trump, as much as he can be, particularly just suburban women in suburban mom. we are back to the days of the waitress and the soccer moms being the determinant vote. and the 2020 make a prediction right now women, it will women, you will decide that. what do alexis, do they vote, provide democrats or then the men vote for the republicans? and let donald trump be donald trump as much as he can be. i was kind of very he didn't coverage because that's the fact that that and they rejected again. well folks, unfortunately were out of time. this is really terrific. i'd love to get a one word. you have a one word answer, dan, on what matters most in the election. you've got, you've got a chance on the professor. one word it's impossible or suburbs. there you go. well, this is a great conversation. thank you both democratic strategist, linda lake, political science professor,

dan hopkins. thank you both for being with us today. really appreciate it and we'll see what happens. so what's the bottom line? millions and millions of americans still believe that donald trump is their great white hope for them. he's a straight talker who doesn't abide by the rules. doesn't care about traditional lines between conservative and liberal, or democrat, and republican and he does whatever he likes. they love it, trump is rude and obnoxious, and you could care less about your feelings. maybe that's really what from prism is about for so many people, they're frustrated and they vent their anger through him. as for his pugnacious policies, while they're just collateral damage for the nerds to worry about, we have to deal with it. the scariest thing about his strategy is that it might just work again. my guess think that democrats scrambling to appeal to a majority of americans, but are they succeeding? it's really hard to tell the cold reality is it about 3 years donald trump or a trump like clone could be back in the white house in american politics. never say never, and that's the bottom line. ah,

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a generation of female players across the middle east. football rebels that's do it on al jazeera. ah, me you want, you know, just bear with me. so rosalind, doha, reminder of all top news stories, tens of thousands of protests in brazil have returned to the st. demanding the impeachment of president john bolton already the angry over his handling of the corona virus pandemic. monica young to give us more from rio de janeiro where there's an arrow, was not the only city where there were protest. protests are all over brazil. a some are starting later i can so follow and people have come to those trades for the 3rd.