why, but for many it doesn't stop their sale then for to walk long distances in the dock in order to get home name and last full. no, i have to take the next. that was it and then i and i now i know, but i'm taking a risk with lives and livelihood at stake, commuters. effectively how hostage by the time people are desperate for inclusion to the violence robinson and i'll just 0, have to i welcome. if you just joining us, you're watching al jazeera, it's just gone half past the hour. your top stories, the us president joe biden has an unsafe list of incentives and restrictions, trying to get more americans vaccination against cobit 19 federal employees who

aren't inoculates. it will need to wear masks and have regular tests worked to get more people vaccinated. i hope all americans who live in areas with substantial or high case of rates will follow the mass guidance is being laid down by the cdc. i certainly will. i have because this is one of those areas in washington and my decision, my direction, all federal personnel and visitors to federal buildings will have to do the same thing. the syrian government forces are intensifying the bombardment of their off at least 18 people have been killed and thousands displaced. rebels of launched attacks on checkpoints. it's the worst violence in the government retook the area 3 years ago. jan as he is president case. so he has appointed a new interior minister days after 2nd, the prime minister and freezing parliament read gasoline. is the latest appointment

following the dismissal of a long list of senior officials sides, opponents of labelled his actions as a qu. he's dismissed those accusations. the u. s. congress as pastor bill increasing the number of visas for afghan allies who faced taliban retaliation. the 1st group of afghans are on their way to the us, but many a still a waiting to be approved. the un security council has heard appeals to intervene as me and mas health system collapses, that you can, bastardize is wanting. the half the population of 54000000 people could be infected with kirby. 19 in the next 2 weeks, japan's governments proposed extending the corona virus states of emergency. the new measures will apply to 3 pre fractures near the olympic coast, city, tokyo and the western prefecture of a soccer. a capitol announced a record number of daily infections on thursday. the news continues of the inside story moneys in 30 minutes. ah,

ah, ah, ah ah, ah, this is president. we shuffled his cabinet, hoping to show up his popularity. but those joint public discontent jo sonata was trans accuse of mishandling the covered 19 times and angry protestors say he should step down. so who's likely to win old? this is inside story. ah, ah, ah, hello and welcome to the program, rob madison. brazil is president. is under pressure again during the course of this

year job both. so not all managed to unite left wing parties, trade unions and social organizations. because they're trying to get him impeached, is mainly accused of mishandling the pandemic, and possibly being responsible for the deaths of thousands of people. brazilians have also accused him of corruption, a disregard for the environment and policies they say of feeling the economic crisis in his latest response, most and auto announced a government, we shuffle, but that's only angered more people who say the president is a threat to democracy. i am here against this government that i consider genocidal, responsible for not purchasing the vaccine. and many people died for lack of vaccines that the government did not buy. i am here claiming the right of all brazilians, the right to democracy without fascism and both sonora out. nobody can stand this genocide in the country anymore. i'm for the amazon for the indians and for the truth. and that's why i'm here because both scenario is

a liar. i didn't vote for him, but i also didn't think he would be so genocidal. we're going to go to, i guess in a moment. but 1st let's take a look at both scenarios, presidency. the populace done conservative president took office in 2019 after defeating leftists his world for decades. victory was seen as part of growing support for the far right in many countries is being criticized for favoring torture and praising the nation's former dictatorship. as comments on race, gender and sexual orientation have also provoked control oversee the president has labeled corona virus, are little flu is pushed for quarantine measures to be lifted and sent contradictory messages about masks and social distancing. and he's been sued by indigenous leaders at the international criminal court for damage caused by his environmental policies. the okay, let's bring in our guests joining us from south palo,

we have shut out. those are connie's and offer brazilian political analyst. and in new haven, connecticut, we have nissan massaging. he's an associate professor at international studies that are queen university and also from so paula, we have claudio cotto is a political scientist. he's also associate professor at the utility of vargas foundation. welcome to you all gentlemen. nissan, i'm sorry, i want to start with you. what do you think the president is trying to achieve with this re shuffle? well, one of his main objective is to establish and solve for to keep the president until the next 2 elections. so there are attempts of impeaching him, as you said, in your introduction note by driving this re shuffle. and then by bringing in a key to you know, get out to his government. he wants to complete his alliance with what is called

in brazil said go to avoid the count of for impeaching. and so because of my, from my point of view, the main, he's main objective. an alternative objective is to allow him to counter more effectively the narrative that is being driven by the coven inquiry commission of the senate. one of the very direct sequences of this re shuffle is that his son will be sitting in as a potential participant in the commission. so this will allow him to defend himself and his narrative in 5 in the course, and then you can present so these are his german objectives. there are others, but for the time being infrastructure, jo, survival rather than the strategy of

a mean for the long run meant that tweeting p election at all is that we hear a lot of course about the people in brazil who are opposed to the president. let's talk about the support that he has. what is the state of both in our support in brazil at the moment? do you think think he reached a floor is standing on the support of the hardliners, the extreme right supporters that, that probably make up about 1520 percent of the electorate, depending on how you measure it. these people are people that benefit or their policemen. there. firemen there in the military. there are some rulers royalists, people that benefit from his policies. some question of angelic goes that align with his conservative ideas. and for,

for these core group of supporters, there was also not into the. it doesn't really matter much. what, what he does or what he says, if he contradicts himself or even the impact the results of his policies. these people just have been following him since the beginning. and they think they'll stick with him into the n. claudio cotto. when the changes and opinion about the president that we have seen in brazil over the last 12 months, say, how much of that is done to people who would have post them in the 1st place. and how much of it is people who had voted for me, do you think, who are now seeing a different side or choosing to interpret what he's doing differently? i think that when we consider the boss that showed the popularity or the or the last popularity of both. so now we can say that about a half of his former voltages in 2018 now don't support him. this is what the

numbers show to us and to have to do, of course, we have his b, his behavior as a present. and he has a very peculiar kind of behavior. he is a very aggressive president. he doesn't respect the tradition of the behavior. all the president had in terms of how to talk with people, how to talk with representatives of other branches of the government. and it has to do, of course, again, with the policies. and mainly in this case, the policies regarding the health and the policy. you guys and how both, so not dealt with the funding mix, not only in terms of sabotaging all the time and the measures that were necessary to keep people apart one from the other in terms of health security measures. but also in terms of the crime vaccines are prescribing medicine that really don't work and even they have the present, the show, the consequences for the people. and so we've considered this,

this whole thing. we can say that people now of weight both so and worse than they used to do before. as i said before me, he's still relies, his support and on a very hard core. busy that is comprising by that far right people by an extra amused people from the security forces. and this is, are now something like that 20 percent of the prison population. since he had more than 50 percent of the votes, we can say that he lost the support of at least 30 percent of resilience. for those of us who don't follow the brazilian politics closely. what was things like in brazil find the election, took place and job both sonata was put in place? well, i think that both. so now he was elected because he present themselves at that time as a kind of outsider. he's there just to say that both. so natalie is a real outsider. both on are, is much more

a margin out insider than properly an outsider since he was a federal representative for 20 years. all his sons are members of the political class. the one of them is a sample right now. the other one isn't again, a federal deputy. the other one is a cd counselor and so well, so i was a member of this is that he was able to present himself as an outsider. and since there was no widespread feeling about the bleeding, politics in brazil in terms of really reacting against the traditional political part is against the traditional politics against the representative institutions that don't work properly. accordingly, to the perception of the brazilian people, both on how to present himself is one that will destroy other things to rebuild it in a different manner. and now we re shuffle his robins. we can see that while he's not doing that, he's on the, sorry, let's talk about this re shuffle. given the fact that he appears to be able to

actually, i'm going to come on to get all this on because there's all the you want to make it a point there. yeah, i may jump in to the last question and looking forward in the, in our last election in 2018, we're also coming out of ears of the the consequences of the lover shot the candle, the car wash love, shout opperation that dealt with corruption in the political system marginalized the workers body to day. many of some of the politicians were arrested, particularly president lula, former president, lula. at the, at that time in 2018 lula was leading the poles in. it's a counterfactual, but it's likely that he would go to run up with both. and if he was allow, of course, his political rights were, were denied. also at that time,

we had before the election, we had the sense that the more traditional right way stablish meant are center, right? being stag, which meant would put forward a candidate in the person of jed all the while me had a broad, very broad coalition of, of body supporting him, had a lot of tv time, which is a big deal in brazil and politics. so there was this sense for many politicians from establishment for some t, v analysts that the center right, would come true that all of these operation to the last side and put the workers body aside all the re anger against the latter government that would lead to a more mainstream stablish man, right? being candidate coming to power and that is complete and will happen. cloud you just described how bush or not was elected coming from the fringes coming from the

outside. but in a sense that still the same predicament we face ourselves today. little as political rights were reinstated, he my run next year. both of course is due with a very strong political force and the center or the right, the right things center, right. coalition is, is completely lost. they don't know exactly what to do. they don't know if the line themselves a boss or not, or they don't know if they try to promote a new candidate. so all of these will play out and next year should all the thank you. i want to come on to nissan massage to go back to the question that i was going to ask, which is about the re shuffle itself with the, the appointment or this move towards, including more centrist candidates within, within his cabinet, within his organization. is that all this? do you think that supposed to not always sell himself risks undermining his own authority if you like, if he

a centrally dilutes the level of power that he has by having to move it out to other people in order to be able to appease his opponents? absolutely. perfect question, and you're absolutely right. as he deepened the alliance with this group of visiting politicians which are imputed through our imputed to be in among the most corrupt fusion president politics. he contradicts 1st of all, he's a message of 2018 when he run as the candidate would bring honesty to politics. so he contradicts that. not only he controls the medicine that message from 2018, but he would confirm from the mercy of this group of petitions who do politics the traditional way and will bargain for every single support of supported vote. they will give the government which we can,

the government will weaken the government further and further, which means that the group of what addition will not care about improve in the economy or the social standing of the population. what matters to them of their own interests and their survival, so as long as they are serving their own interest. so this group of politicians will provide the most or not, or will support this support. we not mean that also not improve the performance of president. it will only mean that this group of what addition will be provided with the support you need to avoid the digital encounter part of which they will be serving their own. so this is the conundrum in which most are not find himself right now. let me just interrupt cuz i want to go into claudia and go back to the go back to a point that geraldo was making with regard to the elections that we're going to be seeing in several months time. jet. although was saying that the,

one of the problems was that the opposition had relied so much on both, both scenarios, lack of electability in a sense that they, they were concentrating on different things. essentially took their eye off the ball because they didn't think the ball sonata was going to get elected. do you think that the opposition in brazil has changed enough and realized their mistake, their previous mistake? enough to be able to cook because a cohesive force against both sonata run and about a year's time. well, i think they did, but the point is that we don't have just one position, but we have different factors of the position today. the perhaps the more competitive sector is the one represented by lula, the, the laughter traditional left in brazil. and there is another sector that now people call that the 3rd way will be something in the middle of lowland both. so

now we can be a center candidate can be a moderate right? this candidate we don't know is what it is. but these guys, they know that they must be competitive against both on the chemical by he's the space in the political, this bill next year. it's impossible for this group to buy the space that is already okay, bye bye bullet from the left until the central left and even a part of the center. and so it was very important for the sectors of the political spectrum to weaken both. when i do even more in order to occupy the space, the point is that we don't have just one candidate. and so there is not an unified capacity of competition for the next election. and besides that, there is also a difficulty in presuming a real competitive and the feeling candidate is not only a problem of the demand. we have that demand for centuries or centers, right? this candidate. but we don't have

a candidate that can fill this blank and is capable of convincing people that they are a best alternative. then the other 2 candidates, but we really realized that was not. it was not, not only a freak, has some people perceived in 2018 that would be impossible for him to be elected. considered, for example, to think that he said, i would say that he was elect because of the things that he sets in this things that are the ones that allow him to present himself at a real positive of the establishment. but now he's establishment and he's a different kind of a stab. and so these people can present themselves as an end table. so now to book it depends on what parts of the position we are talking about that we've talked briefly earlier about the, the, the involvement of the security. so obviously to support the house from the military and so on. i want to ask you about how the military and brazil views about an hour of presidency. and do you think that there's any possibility the military might intervene if it looked as though a ball sonata presidency was going to fail?

that's a great question. and i'm glad you asked it. i think one of the, the consequences of the cabinet shuffle we saw is a down play of the role of the military in person. i was government, don't get me wrong. well, so not who has thousands of military officials in civilian posts is the most number of military men in the government. since the dictatorship, it even suppresses what we had in our military dictatorship. here, he has a very strong support from the military and from the military leaders from the minister of defense from the, the chief of the forces. but in putting you don't get any, been bringing this part of the collisions or parties. he's giving the driving seat off the government to the politicians, not to the military deadlines adult will not, will not go away. he still has

a strong support from, from the military, from the, from the leaders. he recently shuffle positions from, from the, the, the branches in the navy, in the army. and, and there seems to be what we hear from the military is at least the leadership. they will not stand for for renewed lula government for the lula election, which is a conser since right? that's not their option. it's. it's like putting democracy in the hosted seat, but we, we have, we have being getting the signals and i think it sorry to interrupt, but i wanted to, i don't miss sorry about the fact that i would imagine that given that that was only emerged from the military dictatorship, back in 1985. how fresh is that in the brazilian mind when they see the way that

job both and, and his government are operating some hosting fresh in people's memories. i'm one of the things that saves both on our from beach. that is the fact that he's, vice president is another not another he's a general retard general. and even some sectors are concerned. for most of our you can be reached, it will be more our will become president more brings more the military institution even done both. now, because he's a general, he's a retired general, the military and he's part of about a fringe of the military look, believe that define the military as a moderate can force him present in politics. you know, the,

the asian feed up interviews when things go bad. when things go south, so he, if he's involved as a president, there is a risk for a major is probably just in politics from visiting democracy. so this is still fresh in people's memory and people and many politicians would refrain from pitching both on our own because of this, the risk of bringing the military back to power in 2021. i think perhaps not as evidence may take issue with being cold or not, but move on from there. let me talk about the elections that are coming up. no judge wilson out, it was getting increasing the critical about the election process in brazil. is it too much of a coincidence to suggest that this is happening while his approval ratings are plummeting? claudio co. yeah, yeah, that is exactly what is, what has happened says both on i realized that to be very difficult for him to when

the next elections. he says all the time that the political system, the legal system of elections, it doesn't work properly. it's not really reliable that fraud has or red open today, for example, who present some evidence. he says that there are some evidence that there was a, for all the major political fraud in the elections of 2014. when do my research was elected instead of iso nav as opposed to them even asked, never, don't, don't, don't think this way. he recognized that the war fighter elections. but this is not the novelty in terms of also not even sometime before the elections of 1010. he was a read talking about this problems that doesn't exist. we don't have evidence of that in the, in the political system of elections. i think that the problem, the main problem for so now is not only discrediting the electoral institutions in

case of he lose the election, but is also a part of his general perspective. it's general strategy of weakening political institutions of brazilian democracy and sees one of the most important institutions of hers in democracy are the electoral system and electro institutions. it's very important for him to week. this kind of thing, even though they are, let me ask news on my daughter. that's because we're getting close to the end of the program for those who are opposing both in our in brazil is taking to the streets and registering their protest publicly. the only thing they can do is there any other mechanism apart from political impeachment that can be used to remove both sonata by the public or do we have to wait for the elections briefly if you with ballistic lee from my personal point of you both. but is to wait for the election, because portraying,

or pursuing impeachment or other strategies might allow for some, for a victimization process, would allow him to regain credibility with his followers. so from what all of you, the best way to do to get with this is just to allow me to wait for the elections bought. right. we're going to leave it there. thank you very much. needs to all, i guess is that all those are around offer brazilian political analysts from so part of nissan massage, the associate professor of international studies at alco wayne university from new haven, connecticut and also from so paula claudio koto political scientist and associate professor as utility vargas foundation. i'm thank you to you too. for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, odyssey, or dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash h a inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is inside

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understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the world. so no matter when you call home will be used in current affairs. that matter to you. i hello again, peter, they'll be hearing how your top stories on al jazeera, the us president joe biden has an i'm staying you pushed to get more americans vaccinated against kirby 19 as the highly contagious delta variance spreads, the measures include restrictions for federal employees and cash incentives, she have returns now from washington. just a few weeks ago the white house was counting what it said would be a summer of joy and freedom. things have changed. this is.