striking yes of what it called rocket launcher sites inside lebanon, but probably it was empty field, the not causing major damage, but certainly escalation, militarily and here, the commanders on edge authorities in the us of arrested to me and more citizens for allegedly porting to kill or injure mars and bassett, or to the united nations. so i'm going to and had spoken i it's against the military jones or the atrocities they've committed. ah, this is al jazeera and these all the headlines. the urine has been warned. then of ghana found his heading for a catastrophe, so serious that it would have few if any parallels the century. this sense of the taliban captured the provincial capital, the ranch, the 1st city is taken with us and they threw

a troops withdrew from the country at ghana. stan is now at a dangerous turning point. a head like either a genuine peach negotiation or a tragically intertwined set of crises and increasingly brutal conflict. combined with an acute humanitarian situation and multiplying human rights abuses. i do believe that the security council and the broader international community can help prevent the most dire scenarios. but it will require acting in unity and acting quickly at least 56 wild, far as are burning across greece. one person has been killed, major blaze, just north of athens is forced thousands to flee. the fire is moving towards lake marathon, the capitals main water reservoir. israel says it's ready for an escalation on the

lebanese border after an exchange of far with hezbollah. israel's aren't, don't defense system intercepted several walk. it's far from southern lebanon. reading about has, below says the barrage is in battalion ation for his really air strikes, which targeted southern lebanon a day earlier. israeli military, far fac, with artillery. nicaragua is electro tribunal, has disqualified the main opposition party from taking part in the members presidential election citizens for freedom. the last remaining or position party allegedly violated election laws. president daniel ortega is now running virtually unopposed for his 4th consecutive term and that's your debates. keep it here on al jazeera, the use continues after insight story, which is up next news

news news. i will, the longer the stand off and venezuela finally comes to an end. the government and opposition are now expected to hold. talk of the country reels from a different crisis, but what will it take to appeal this is inside source? ah, ah hello and welcome to the program i'm getting obligated van as well as political nightmare could soon be over. president nicholas my douro and his main rival, won by doe,

have agreed to hold talks in mexico in august to try to resolve their differences. it wasn't long ago, venezuela was considered one of latin america's most economically stable countries . but the oil producing nation has seen 8 years of recession fuel by an ongoing political crisis since 2018 tough us sanctions on multiple attempts to overthrow the government. and that's without the added complications of covered 19. the stakes are high, but will then as well as leaders, leave their rivalry aside to rescue their country. i'll introduce our guests in just a moment for inside story, but 1st let's take a look at how as well i got to where it is right now. so in 2019 nicholas madura was sworn in for a 2nd term as president. but the opposition, which had boycotted the elections accused madura a vote rigging and refused to accept his when then opposition leader one why though declared himself into the president, he was quickly accepted by the united states and least 50 other countries has been as well as legitimate presidents madura responded by cutting ties with the u. s.

who he accused of working with quite whoa. and then refused to allow humanitarian aid set by washington to help with an ongoing food crisis. with us under former president, donald trump reacted by imposing crippling sanctions on missouri government and then as well as main lifeline oil exports. the political crisis led to a lack of investment, food shortages and the migration of up to 5000000 venezuelans, thousands of whom were considered part of a skilled workforce. ah, let me bring in our guests for inside story. joining us via skype from the venezuelan capital, i guess it's phil johnson who's a senior analyst at the international crisis group from new york. vanessa women is the founder and ceo of a symmetrical, and that's a political risk research and strategic communications firm and from mary. then venezuela pulled opposite with an analyst at venezuela analysis dot com. thanks for

joining us on inside story. phil over to you 1st, the previous attempts that negotiations between the government and the opposition have failed. as you know, most recently in 2019 will these negotiations in mexico this month differ from the previous times. well i, i think it's fair to say that as you mentioned, the previous talks of failed. and in particular that when the opposition gave up on the tools very similar tools that were taking place in 2009 team. in september of that year, they declared that this process facilitated by the norwegians was exalted. there was no further point. and in fact, they then turn to an attempted violence overthrown the government. so it's not clear why they think if indeed they do think this time around is likely to succeed . in fact, the opposition side is but weaker than it was in 2019 the 2 sides seem in some ways

while much as far apart as they were than have been some minor adjustments to the position, but they're still very, very far apart. and so i think we have to be skeptical going into this trash around . ok. important points raised we'll get into them in a moment. vanessa over to you in new york, just way in on, on whether you think the talks this time around have any chance of succeeding. hi. yeah, it's, well, i think it's very, it's, i agree that it's very challenging. i think that the opposition, which as you know, i was sort of, you know, officially a part of this, the investor to the u. k for why though, is, is, is very, is quite weak. they are trying to unite our, please, your trying to present a united front, but you still have the factions. i think that the strong hand that they do have to play is that the regime has not been able to really secure a lot or the foreign assets and countries where g y, though, continues to be recognised, including the u. s. united kingdom and many cars and most of the countries in europe. and so what my daughter was trying to do is to try and get some sort of

minimal conditions so that his no collections will, will attain some sort of international recognition so that they can become the imprimatur for later presidential election. so that he can, again get the can get access to that international money that has been held, pending free and fair elections. that's the issue. my daughter wants the money wants to enough legitimacy to secure the money, which then goes unfortunately into the capt aquatic regime. i want to correct you on one point though, the mother did not break your relations with united states because of quite all that teresa had broken relations with the united states many years ago. it's been years since since the united states has really had a properly functioning diplomatic relations. right. it's right. it's been a while. yeah, yeah. i mean the point, the point is that the relation has really deteriorated between the united states and, and venezuela. since quite a poll dobson over to you,

i know that you told our our producer before the show that in your opinion, the political crisis has already ended in venezuela. what are you basing on? well, when we, when we talked in 2019, there was a very clear confrontation between 2 fairly strong political groups in the country, the government, the one hand, and a wider lead vision on the other hand. now this correlation have canes quite significantly over the last 2 years. there is now we can essentially say here in venezuela, on the ground, there is no confrontation in the political arena. doesn't make sense why they've come, have essentially been removed from the political map. they have lost most of that support base here. they're losing the support based in the international arena as well. so when we look at the developed political market, the mainland, we can see a dominant government sector. we can see a, a growing but still very more moderates, right wing opposition sectors and we can see why they come,

which is basically in half the collapse of a moment. so i think it's incorrect to describe the current political situation, venezuela as a confrontation or a crisis, and i was asleep. this, this doesn't mean to pay the toilet is, is going through a period of growth. there is an economic crisis which is going on at the same time, but politically, this situation is very different. the 2019, when the last talk came about us, i feel mentioned. and i think, and this needs to be taken into account when we, when we look at the possibility of success, the, the bargaining kids of each side in the equation are very different. what they were in 2019 ok fill. the maturity reportedly has placed conditions on any new talks and what he's calling for the lifting of the blockade against the country that us sanctions against country and the return of frozen or seized assets . is that a likely scenario going into these talks? would know it's not going to happen. the united states government has made it very

clear that in order for that to be significant relief of sanctions relieve, then there has to be equally significant progress in terms of what they would see it, restoring democracy to the country. that means that it looks very much as if we would need to go very long way down the road in these negotiations because i think it's going to be a very slow process. the idea that as my wish, sanctions be lifted 1st and his government and all its institutions be recognized as legitimate before. nothing else can happen. i think that's clearly unrealistic. it's also unrealistic for the opposition. i think to demand a model that you bring forward presidential elections that he at reinstate that he, that he restore constitutional institutional rules about his father in continuously

because despite poll says, i mean this is a very, very popular government. it's the government knows very well when they were exposed to the rigors of a full scale democracy if you'd like, that he wouldn't, that it would lose power, not necessarily lose power of the, those presently engaged in this negotiation. but by doing who is an unpopular leader, he's been pretty popular really for the duration of his term and a half in office so far. and so he's not going to sit down and talk and agree to something that's going to lead to him losing power, especially because he's wanted internationally for, you know, allocations of drug trafficking, human rights abuses that are 2 cases in the international criminal court against high ranking officials including moodle and so it's highly risky for my duty to agree to anything like that appall, can you, would you like to just respond to the claims by phil that madura right now currently is highly unpopular in the country. so that's something that i would,

i would agree with, fill in this affirmation, but if we need to contextualize it, there is a white bread. different common with political parties have been a trailer which has been building over the last 5 years. and it really reflected in 10 out in the election to not have been decreasing in the last 6 or 7 years in every election. and i think it'll be fair to say there been a wayland from the 3 are really disenchanted with the political leaders, but also the opposition on political leaders. it's not just a phenomenon which is uniquely my lower and all of the political leaders amendment and massively unpopular and, and there is really a growing power going, we could say in terms of political leadership in the country. ok, vanessa. guido are one of great conditions going into the talks are reportedly for free and fair electoral guarantees led by you observers. but if you just look at the opposition as a whole for a moment, besides agreeing on attending the talks,

the upcoming talks, how united are they? and their demands well, as i mentioned before, the, they are trying to put together a united front. but as you know, that we call it the g for the main for parties, but which is building up. we'll put a metal who's an extra the more can i think got, and it's had the negotiations are led by out of a life who's been involved with the 2019 negotiations. i was involved with 2 of those 4 political parties and a member from each of those parties. i agree with the attachment, pull that actually there is a growing a disenchantment with the various medical parties from the benefit of citizen perspective is not what i present that and do they represent? this is a challenge for the opposition. and then you also have the internal dynamics of the different political parties who pursue slightly different agenda, which is one by those party in the office. this party, you know, on more of the hard 9 or say we want an absolute comprehensive agreement before

anything happens before we agree to anything. where's the other 3 parties have shown them or could i think they will want to cite the more step approach, which is also what norway is advocating. so doc, present challenge. i do agree that i do agree that there are, that's the opposition has lost a lot of supports, mainly because it has taken so long to get out of power. and, and, and because of this sort of inviting, however, only one side in this equation is accused of crimes against humanity. and only one side of this equation hasn't documents for norco terrorism for an investigation, going back to at least 2008. so. so you know, you can't really compare the 2 sides. there is no moral equivalency. you do have social disenchantment with the political parties. but the moral equivalency between the 2 sides and simply not dollars are things that can play into the factors in this negotiation in mexico. what is happening next week is really just setting an m

o u, for further discussions and establishing framework for those further discussions that will continue on from september onwards. but fail to what extent is the opposition coming to the negotiating table? really weakened and perhaps as a means to insure its own survival. given what paul has been saying, as well as vanessa, i think you're right, but in a slightly different way than you were you suggesting there is, of course, still this phenomenon. this is mirage. if you'd like, i'm not quite sure how to describe it of the interim government, which is recognize now by many fewer governments that it was at the beginning of 2019. but it's still recognized by washington is still recognized by the u. k. for example, what do i still recognize by them as the legitimate president? that's not going to continue indefinitely. and the u. s. is told the why those side

that it's really unrealistic to imagine that the, the recognition of why and on the interim government is going to go on beyond the beginning of next year. so i think there's, there's a kind of a perverse incentive here on the part of the boy lopez faction in particular. that's one of the factors that seem to theory will interfere in these talks with any kind of genuine negotiated outcome. but i think that's where the lot is decided to sit down again with the government, primarily in order to head off the alternative faction if you'd like, within the mainstream opposition, which is that the bike and the company. this who does believe in a more gradualist approach, the approach to them as it was referring to who believes, for example, in taking part in the regional elections that are coming in in november, which have been described by those sham vanessa. so was just talking about the acceptance of other countries of why joe, at the time,

which brings me to this question, why are the talks being held in mexico, which was not exactly a neutral country when it came to vent, as well as opposition. and the guy, though, because of the mexican president, was one in the region that did not recognize quite back in 21900. correct, exactly. so. so mexico is a country where the why, though, why the has a representative there, but that has not been recognized by, by am know that it's manuel office or the president of mexico. and he is very much in favor of, of my ludo. however, so it is not really neutral ground, i think. but there's also parallels for instance, the negotiations for the park. were that that, that sorry, that child was helped broker took place in cuba. so there is a tendency to sort of go to these rather left the spaces. i mean it's, but about mexico is certainly

a better bet for the opposition that leads to cuba. so do have it in this sort of slightly more than slightly left us terrain. that favors that favors the the minute. oh cap, definitely. it's meant to get them to the table. however, don't forget that americans do have a strong presence in mexico. it is just over the border. you do have tremendous commercial ties between mexico and the united states gas pipelines, automotive, industry, etc. so it's sort of the near abroad. it's sort of left just enough for, you know, to appeal to the mother to come and still sort of close enough to the united states . that there can be a little bit of law duration of that, extreme laughter in terms of hosting these talks and rather makes it convenient for washington who will be sending also some representatives to the talks. let me know about the united states and how that goes. just recently been us of the us treasury

department in fact, last month announced that would authorize venezuela to now import liquified petroleum gas from the united states and other sources. what is the reason behind this move by the biden administration? is there a shift? do you think in relations? well, not really. i mean, i agree with bills attachment that, you know, i knew those demands of recognize all of me and give me all my money is really unrealistic because of the cryptography, the narco terrorism. you know, it's just not going to happen and because there would be no incentive to negotiate that once you have recognition. so, but i think that the biden administration is trying to also head off a humanitarian issue and then is showing it signaling its willingness liquified petroleum guy. is really what ben as well as used to cook. so you already have, you know, millions of venice wines, they're burning wood to try and cook their meals at home. so it is to show that there is support for the venice wall and people are opening windows to help the

bench wall and people. however, since oil for lpg is not a transaction that can happen, it's difficult to see how my buddha would do that. because he would have to spend cash, which is an international reserves which are at a low or know at a premium or have to do that. so it's slightly could smell. it shows it shows that biden is conscious of the difficulties of the everyday people. but it's worth while also to put on the back book, you have this opportunity to help people, will you or will you not do it? and if you don't, you own that. so it's a fairly savvy diplomatic move on, on the bided administrations part and hopefully, you know, hopefully it will help the best one. and people though, frankly, i don't, i don't see that happening in practice to some of those positions. let's find out from paul dobson over in venezuela. how do you think the major government is viewing that? moved by the biden administration. we have to remember here the bite and the

ministration. actually, heritage, the vast majority of the current function, the blockade against the trailer from it mostly donald trump, professor, but also obama party member, the predecessor on a crumb being himself, having actually implemented in many functions since he came into office. and but this, this kind of mcmaname a picture of it on which, which beneatha painted. you know, i'm, i agree with her funny down the line when we start thing a few more measures. but at the moment we've seen bite and failed to take action on a devastating and according to the united nations, illegal embargo on diesel import, which is really affect the benefit ways in the capacity to move food from the countryside to the cities and defeated population amongst other thing, and we see that by the ministration really unwilling, at the moment to take can you sort of significant steps on the, on the oil embargo infinity, which is basically cutting off 99 percent of it or with national income you could

say. and so you know that the move on the lp got was a positive and i think it has to be class, but i personally see it, a preamble, we could take to the talks and mexico. a slight softening of the, of the position from washington to try to, to, to show that there is room to negotiate that, to convince correct that, that, you know, there is potential to lift some of the other measures should be taken. and i think this is really where we come to the crux of a map of every beef talk that mexico will only have a real goes to show if there is political maturity from base him is why they come arise, claiming that missouri has power over the talk will not work because if a lack of maturity, if they could be said from the government and of course from washing them. so paul, just back on the issue of the biden and in some administration and the u. s, what you're saying is from the, from era to, to the, by the era, there really hasn't been much change in your opinion, right?

no change or whoever in the 7 months that might have been an office. and since last year. correct. ok, vanessa. vanessa. go ahead. i know you want to jump in there. yes, no, i do agree with paul's analysis that you know, that biden is basically has inherited. the sanctions really got going. first, sanctions runs obama. they got going much stronger under the under, under trump. and part of the reason i was personally involved, a part of that, which was the turning point was the hunger bond coach out in front of the goldman sachs headquarters, which actually helped organize, which was at the time if you remember in 2017, the protest really caught that wall and we had kids being shot at point blank range and beam, i know. but at that time, goldman sachs 100 a bunch of hundreds of millions of dollars to my buddha. and that really, that protests that got really the front page of every financial media in the world really started, you know, kicked the sanctions into high gear. and people realize that this is, you know,

murderous i regime, murdering it, it citizens and that better swans were standing up to that. so i think i also published yesterday in the energy advise or publication of the inter american dialogue, my personal views of how this negotiation should happen. i do agree that you know there, if that the 1st thing that should be negotiated in terms of lifting of oil sanctions, should be that in exchange for food and medicine and the diesel to get that to the people as well. was saying, however, that needs to be packed to the liberation of political prisoners that the political prisoners out and start setting up a credible elections range from international supervision for november. and then you can help the people that i mean would be a win for minute, or if he shows that he wants to help the people and have you know, a fig leaf of democracy. ok, let me just bring in and they're running out of time. thank you so much, vanessa, but let me just bring in phil for a final words on,

on the outcome and what you're going to be looking for specifically on that day, the meeting is actually helps. i'm afraid. i think the 13th of august is more rough . i told him else i think it's so unlikely, especially in the middle of an election campaign that we're going to get much progress beyond that. but if we can see the installation, all will have to be long term talks on the 2 sides. consider the table and really try things out then perhaps after the november elections we can see great progress . i'm not really very optimistic that anything much is gonna come out of the 13th of august meeting. okay, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much for going from vanessa norman and pulled ops, and thanks for joining us. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page dot, facebook dot com, forward slash ha, inside story. enjoying the conversation on twitter. our handle is a inside story for myself,

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al jazeera went as a you ah all ah, i'm hello, he didn't do her with the headlines on al jazeera, the un security council has warned that if ghana stan is heading for catastrophe, the un envoy says the conflict has entered a deadly or more destructive phase after the telephone seized the provincial capital of wrongs, the 1st city to fall to the group since it began a major offensive this year. again, a stand is now at a dangerous turning point. ahead.