houses, so the legacy will be when they get the useful for the population. paris games a hoping to prove it is possible to light the olympic flame without burning a hole in the public's pockets. and richardson al jazeera tokyo to quick space story for you now says like his mars rovers begun collecting rock samples. we've got these pictures from the us space agency showing the hole drilled by the perseverance rover into the martian surface. nasa plans to launch a mission incoming years to collect the samples, bring them back. i take it to the headlines now and i'll just the or the united nations has been worn death. dennis donna's heading for a quote catastrophe. so serious that it would have few if any parallels the century . the taliban captured its 1st provincial capital. that ranch, since the us, the native trees of drew a diplomatic edit at james bases covered developments from cobble. no one can

believe how fast all of this is moved. most of the international community, including some of the u. s. allies, was surprised by the original announcement by president bite. and that was pulling out and he was going to pull out so quickly. and then they'd been even more surprised by the speed of the taliban taking up the space that the americans had taking 1st the rural areas in the north of afghanistan, not the taliban traditional heartland. taking the borders and now trying very hard to take the cities headlines and prosecutors in the us of charge to people from me . and now with plotting to attack the countries ambassador to the united nations kilmer tune has been an outspoken supporter of the democracy movement ever since me and mas, military seized power, the united nations as evidence. iran was behind last week's attack on an oil tanker is clear cut. 2 crew members were killed in a drone attack on and israeli managed vessel off the coast of oman. though tariff

denies the involvements. there is a 6 day mass vaccination drive underway in bangladesh. the government set a goal of 3200000 people getting vaccinated above the age of 25. in many, rural and regional areas. also plans to start offering jobs to rank refugees by early next week. you know, creation campaign has been one of the slowest in south asia. huge wildfire in northern california become the 3rd largest in the states history. emergency crews of trying to stop it from reaching mo forest tom's the dixie fires, of known as already destroyed, much of the historic town of greenville and several countries of sending aircraft and 5 fighters to greece to help battle the dozens of uncontrolled wildfires, their thousands of people have been forced to flee and area just north of athens at fire. now moving towards the capitals main water reservoir. i'd like madison. those are your headlines and he's continues after inside story. something was going to change. anything really changed. this is systemic violence that needs to be

addressed at its core. we are in a race against the variance know what to say. so we are all saying we're looking at the world as it is right now, not the world. we like it to be, the devil is always going to be in the house. the bottom line on i'll just around will the long running sand off and venezuela finally comes to an end. the government and opposition are now with spectrum. the whole talk of the country real from economic crisis, but what will it take to reach a deal this is inside source? ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm getting obligated van, as well as political nightmare, could soon be over president nicholas maduro. and his main rival won by doe,

have agreed to hold talks in mexico in august to try to resolve their differences. it wasn't long ago, venezuela was considered one of latin america's most economically stable countries . but the oil producing nation has seen 8 years of recession fuel by an ongoing political crisis and 2018 tough us sanctions on multiple attempts to overthrow the government. and that's without the added complications of coven 19. the stakes are high, but will then as well as leaders, leave their rivalry aside to rescue their country. all. introduce our guest in just a moment for inside story, but 1st, let's take a look at how as well i got to where it is right now. so in 2019 nicholas madura was sworn in for a 2nd term as president. but the opposition, which had boycotted the elections accused madura a vote rigging and refuse to accept his when then opposition leader one way though the clara himself into the president. he was quickly accepted by the united states and least 50 other countries has been as well as legitimate presidents. madura

responded by cutting ties with the u. s. who he accused of working with quite whoa, and then refused to allow humanitarian aid set by washington to help with an ongoing food crisis. with us under former president, donald trump reacted by imposing crippling sanctions on missouri government. and then as well as main lifeline oil exports, the political crisis led to a lack of investment food shortages and the migration of up to 5000000 van as well and thousands of whom were considered part of a skilled workforce. the let's, i'll bring in our guests were inside story, joining us via skype from the venezuela capital. i guess it's phil johnson who's a senior analyst at the international crisis group from new york. vanessa women is the founder and ceo of a symmetrical. that's a political risk research and strategic communications firm and from mary then venezuela pull dobson, who's an analyst at venezuela analysis,

dot com. thanks for joining us on inside story. phil over to you 1st, the previous attempts at negotiations between the government and the opposition have failed. as you know, most recently in 2019. will these negotiations in mexico this month differ from the previous times? well i, i think it's fair to say that as you mentioned, the previous talks of failed. and in particular, when the opposition gave up on the tools very similar tools that were taking place in 2009 team. in september of that year, they declared this process facilitated by the norwegians was exalted. there was no further point, and in fact, they then turn to an attempted violence overthrown the government. so it's not clear why they think if indeed they do think this time around is likely to succeed . in fact, the opposition side is but weaker than it was in 2019 the 2 sides seem in some ways

while much as far apart as they were than have been some minor adjustments to the position, but they're still very, very far apart. and so i think we have to be skeptical going into this trash around . ok. important points raised we'll get into the minimum of vanessa over to you in new york, just way in on, on whether you think the talks this time around have any chance of succeeding. hi. yeah, it's, well, i think it's very, it's, i agree that it's very challenging. i think that the opposition, which as you know, i was sort of, you know, officially a part of this, the investor to the u. k for why though, is, is, is very, is quite weak. they are trying to unite our, please your trying to present a united front. but you still have the factions. i think that the strong hand that they do have to play is that the regime has not been able to really secure a lot or the foreign assets in countries where g y, though, continues to be recognised, including the u. s. united kingdom and many cars and most of the countries in europe. and so what my daughter was trying to do is to try and get some sort of

minimal conditions so that his no collections will, will attain some sort of international recognition so that they can become the imprimatur for later presidential election. so that he can, again get the can get access to that international money that has been held, pending free and fair elections. that's the issue. my daughter wants the money wants to enough legitimacy to secure the money, which then goes unfortunately into the cup aquatic regime. i want to correct you on one point though, the mother did not break your relations with united states because of quite all that teresa had broken relations with the united states many years ago. it's been years since since the united states has really had a properly functioning diplomatic relations. right. it's right. it's been a while. yeah, yeah. i mean the point, the point is that the relation has really deteriorated between the united states and, and venezuela. since quite

a pulled oxen over to you. i know that you told our our producer before the show that in your opinion, the political crisis has already ended in venezuela. what are you basing on? well, when we, when we talked in 2019, there was a very clear confrontation between 2 fairly strong political groups in the country, the government, the one hand, and a wider lead opposition on the other hand. now this correlation have canes quite significantly over the last 2 years. there is now we can essentially say here in a minute, wait on the ground, there is no confrontation in the political arena. doesn't make sense why they can't have essentially been removed from the political map. they have lost most of that report base here. they're losing the support based in the international arena as well. so when we look at the political market, the mainland, we can see a dominant government sector, we can see a, a growing but still very more moderate right wing opposition sectors. and we can

see why they comp, which is basically in the collapse of a moment. so i think it incorrect to describe the current political situation, venezuela as a confrontation or a crisis. and i will leave this, this doesn't mean to pay the toilet is, is going through a period of growth. there is an economic crisis with going on at the same time, but politically, this situation is very different. the 2019 when the last talk came about i feel mentioned and i think and this needs to be taken into account when we, when we look at the possibility of success. the, the bargaining kits of each side in the equation are very different. what they were in 2019 ok fill. the maturer reportedly has placed conditions on any new talks and what he's calling for the lifting of the blockade against the country that us sanctions against country and the return of frozen or seized assets . is that a likely scenario going into these talks? would know it's not going to happen. the united states government has made it very

clear that in order for that to be significant relief sanctions relieve, then there has to be equally significant progress in terms of what they would see it, restoring democracy to the country. that means that it looks very much as if we would need to go very low way down the road in these negotiations because i think it's going to be a very slow process. the idea that my wish sanctions be lifted 1st and his government and all its institutions be recognized as legitimate before and nothing else can happen. i think that's clearly unrealistic. it's also unrealistic for the opposition. i think to demand the model that you bring forward presidential elections that he at reinstate that he did, he restore constitutional institutional rule to venezuela instantaneously because

of this bible poll says, i mean this is a very, very popular government. it's the government knows very well. we're exposed to the rigors of a full scale democracy if you'd like, then it wouldn't that it would lose power, not necessarily lose power of the those presently engaged in this negotiation. but who is an unpopular leader? he's been pretty popular really for the duration of his term and a half in office so far. and so he's not going to sit down and talk and agree to something that's going to lead to him losing power, especially because he's wanted internationally for you know, allocations of drug trafficking, human rights abuses, or 2 cases in the international criminal court against high ranking officials. including moodle, and so it's jaime risky for my duty to agree to anything like that appall, can you, would you like to just respond to the claims by phil that madura right now currently is highly unpopular in the country. the summit that i,

i would agree with fill in this affirmation, but we need to contextualize if there is a white bread. different common with political parties have been a trailer which has been building over the last 5 years. and it really reflected in turn out in the election turn off have been decreasing in the last 6 or 7 years in every election. and i think it be fed that they, there been a wayland from the 3 are really disenchanted with the political leaders, but also. busy the opposition political leaders, it's not just a phenomenon which is uniquely my lower and all of the political leaders are amendment and massively unpopular. and there is really a growing power going. we could say in terms of political leadership in the country . ok, vanessa. guido are one of great conditions going into the talks are reportedly for free and fair electoral guarantees led by you observers. but if you just look at the opposition as a whole for a moment, besides agreeing on attending the talks,

the upcoming talks, how united are they? and their demands well, as i mentioned before, the, they are trying to put together a united front. but as you know, that we call it the g for the main for parties, but which is an extra the more can i think, got, and it's had the negotiations are led by out of a life who's been involved with the 2019 negotiations. i was involved with 2 of those 4 political parties and a member from each of those parties. i agree with the attachment, pull that actually there is a growing a disenchantment with the various medical parties from the benefit of citizen perspective. it's not what i present that do they represent? this is a challenge for the opposition. and then you also have the internal dynamics of the different political parties who pursue slightly different agenda, which is one by those party in the office. this party, you know, on more of the hard 9 or say we want an absolute comprehensive agreement before

anything happens before we agree to anything. where's the other 3 parties have shown them? okay, i think one thing that i want to cite the more step approach, which is also what norway is advocating. so dot present challenge. i do agree that i do agree that there, that's, that opposition has lost a lot of support, mainly because it has taken so long to get out of power. and, and, and because of this sort of inviting, however, only one side in this equation is accused of crimes against humanity. and only one side of this equation hasn't documents for norco terrorism for an investigation, going back to at least 2008. so. so you know, you can't really compare the 2 sides. there is no moral equivalency. you do have social disenchantment with the political parties. but the moral equivalency between the 2 sides and simply not dollars are things that can play into the factors in this negotiation in mexico. what is happening next week is really just setting an m

o u, for further discussions and establishing framework for those further discussions that will continue on from september onwards. but fail to what extent is the opposition coming to the negotiating table? really weakened and perhaps as a means to insure its own survival. given what paul has been saying, as well as vanessa, i think you're right, but in a slightly different way than you were you suggesting there is, of course, still this phenomenon. this is mirage. if you'd like, i'm not quite sure how to describe it of the, the interim government, which is recognize now by many fewer governments that it was at the beginning of 2019. but it's still recognized by washington is still recognized by the u. k. for example, what do i still recognize by them as the legitimate president? that's not going to continue indefinitely. and the u. s. is told the why those side

that it's really unrealistic to imagine that the, the recognition is why and on the interim government is going to go on beyond the beginning of next year. so i think there's, there's a kind of a perverse incentive here on the part of the boy, the lopez faction, in particular that that's one of the factors that seem to theory, willing to hear in these talks with any kind of genuine negotiated outcome. but i think that's why the lot is decided to sit down again with the government, primarily in order to head all the alternative faction, if you'd like, within the mainstream opposition, which is that the bike and the company who does believe in a more gradualist approach, the approach to them as it was referring to who believes, for example, in taking part in the regional elections that are coming in in november which have been described by those sham vanessa. so was just talking about the acceptance of other countries of why do at the time, which brings me to this question,

why are the talks being held in mexico, which was not exactly a neutral country when it came to vent, as well as opposition and go because of the mexican president was one. 2 in the region that did not recognize quite a back in 21900. correct. exactly. so. so mexico is a country where the wible, why the will has a representative there, but that has not been recognized by by know that it's been will look this over to load the president of mexico. and he is very much in favor of of my little however, so it is not really neutral ground, i think. but there's also parallels for instance, the negotiations for the park. were that that, that sorry, that child was helped broker took place in cuba. so there is a tendency to sort of go to these rather left the spaces. i mean, it's much about mexico is certainly

a better back for the opposition that leads to cuba. so do have it in this sort of slightly more than slightly leftist terrain that favors that favors the the, the minute. okay. definitely it's meant to get them to the table. however, don't forget that the americans do have a strong presence in mexico. it is just over the border, you do have tremendous commercial ties between mexico and the united states gas pipelines, automotive, industry, etc. so it's sort of the near abroad. it's sort of left just enough for, you know, to appeal to the minute o'con and still sort of close enough to the united states. that there can be a little bit of moderation of that extreme left is in terms of hosting these talks and rather makes it convenient for washington who will be sending also some representatives to the talks. let me know about the united. yeah. how that go just recently been us. so the us treasury department, in fact,

last month announced that would authorize venezuela to now import liquified petroleum gas from the united states and other sources. what is the reason behind this move by the biden administration? is there a shift, do you think in relation? well, not really, i mean, i agree with those attachment that, you know, i knew those demands recognize all of me and give me all my money is really unrealistic because of the cryptography, the narco terrorism. you know, it's just not going to happen it and because there would be no incentive to negotiate that once you have recognition. so, but i think that the biden administration is trying to also head off a humanitarian issue and then is showing it signaling its willingness liquified petroleum guy. is really what ben as well as used to cook. so you already have, you know, millions of venice wines, they're burning wood to try and cook their meals at home. so it is to show that there is support for the venice wall and people are opening windows to help the

bench with people. however, since oil for lpg is not a transaction that can happen, it's difficult to see how my buddha would do that. because he would have to spend cash, which is an international reserves which are at a low or know at a premium or have to do that. so it's slightly could smell. it shows it shows that biden is conscious of the difficulties of the everyday people. but it's worth while also to put on the back. but you have this opportunity to help people, will you or will you not do it? and if you don't, you own that. so it's a fairly savvy diplomatic move on, on the bided administration's part, and hopefully, you know, hopefully it will help the best one. and people though, frankly, i don't, i don't see that happening in practice teaching positions. let's find out from paul dobson over in venezuela. how do you think the major government is viewing that move by the biden administration?

we have to remember here the bite and the ministration. actually, heritage, the vast majority of the current functions, the blockade against a trailer from it, mostly donald trump, professor, but also obama party member, the predecessor donald trump, being himself haven't actually implemented in many functions since he came into office. and but this, this kind of mcmaname a picture of it on which, which beneatha painted. you know, i'm, i agree with her funny down the line when we starting a few more measures. but at the moment we've seen bite and fail to take action on a devastating and according to the united nations illegal embargo on diesel import, which is really affect the benefit, weighs in the capacity to move food from the countryside to the cities and defeated population amongst other thing, and we see that by the ministration really unwilling, at the moment to take can you sort of significant steps on the, on the oil embargo infinity, which is basically cutting off 99 percent of it with national income. you could say

. and you know that the move on the lp got was a positive and i think it has to be class. but i personally see it, a preamble, we could say to the talk and mexico. a slight softening of the position from washington to try to, to, to show that there is room to negotiate that, to convince correct that, that, you know, there is potential to lift some of the other measures should that be taken. and i think this is really where we come to the crux of a map of every the talk that mexico will only have a real goes to show if there is political maturity from base. and if the why they come arise claiming that missouri, the power over the talks will not work because if a lack of maturity, if they could be said from the government and of course from washing them. so paul, just back on the issue of the biden, and in some administration and the u. s, what you're saying is from the, from era through to the biden era, there really hasn't been much change in your opinion, right?

no change or whoever in the 7 months have items been in office and since last year? correct. ok, vanessa. vanessa. go ahead. i know you want to jump in there. yes, no, i do agree with paul's analysis that you know, that biden is basically has inherited the sanctions really got going for centers run obama. they got a much stronger under the under, under trump. and part of the reason i was personally involved with part of that, which was the turning point was the hunger bond coach house in front of the goldman sachs headquarters, which actually helped organize, which was at the time if you remember in 2017, the protest really caught that wall and we had kids being shot, a point, blank range and b, i know, but at that time, goldman sachs 100 a bunch of hundreds of millions of dollars to my buddha. and that really, that protests that got really the front page of every financial media in the world really started, you know, kicked the sanctions into high gear. and people realize that this is, you know,

murderous i regime, murdering it, it citizens and that better ones were standing up to that. so i think i also published yesterday in the energy advise or publication of the inter american dialogue, my personal views of how this negotiation should happen. i do agree that you know there if that the 1st things that should be negotiated in terms of lifting of oil sanctions, should be that in exchange for food and medicine and the diesel to get that to the people as well. was saying, however, that needs to be packed to the liberation of political prisoners that the political prisoners out and start setting up a credible elections rank some international supervision for november. and then you can help the people that i mean would be a win for minute, or if he shows that he wants to help the people and have you know, a fig leaf of democracy. ok, let me just bring in and they're running out of time. thank you so much, vanessa, but let me just bring in phil for a final words on,

on the outcome and what you're going to be looking for specifically on that day, the meeting is actually helps. i'm afraid. i think the 13th of august is more referred to that. yeah. i think it's unlikely, especially in the middle of an election campaign that we're going to get much progress beyond that. but if we can see the installation, all will have to be long term talks on the 2 sides. consider the table and really try things out. then perhaps after the november elections we can see greater progress. i'm not really very optimistic that anything much is gonna come out of the 13th of august meeting. okay, we'll have to leave it there. thank you so much. i forgot from vanessa norman and pulled ops, and thanks for joining us. thanks for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion. go to our facebook page dot facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story, enjoying the conversation on twitter, or handle as adrian side. story for myself. the whole thing here in delphi,

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