he wanted to be the lead candidate for the cdcs you in september, but last out to lash it in the spring. now the polls suggest most germans would prefer verda as chancellor, and that the cd you see su, vote would be higher if he was. but such a change, of course, seems highly unlikely with just a few weeks to go dominant cane al jazeera berlin. ah, and let's take you through some of the headlines here. now, i'm just here and i'm a scramble. so safety is on the way across the gamma stand. this is holly bond continues. it's rapid takeover of territory. thousands of embassy staff, aid workers, and foreign nationals are trying to secure flights out of cobble. rob mcbride is in cobble. he explains how the taliban might be using a veteran militia commander to deliver a message to cobble. he has been,

you've been now sort of identified as a possible messenger to bring the message from the taliban. 2 political leaders here in cobble at that. it's time to seemingly talk peace. his message is directed at the people who would normally the adversaries of the taliban. people are linked to the northern alliance and so on. and it does come with an interesting time because of course, the taliban now controlled so many provinces across afghanistan that it does find itself in a position with all of this political leverage villages. and now jerry joining emergency crews to put out wildfire. it's been burning in the north for 3 days. at least 71 people have been killed. the government says defies the. started deliberately. nearly 2 dozen people have been arrested. suspected of all zambia as opposition leader in the july ma has taken an early lead in the country's presidential election incumbent president. i'd go. longo is trailing behind these

rival by tens of thousands of votes. the final outcome is not expected until sunday . rights groups are criticizing a u. s. policy of expelling refugees and migrant. stop to the border. being flown to mexico, southern border and busts for a remote area in guatemala. and it's why it is government and opposition of mass in mexico and the latest to the countries political and economic crises. the processes supported by norway, mexico, russia, and the netherland police in nicaragua rated the offices of a proposition newspaper, the owners of the plans being investigated for customs fraud and money laundering. the newspaper has branded the government of president daniel ortega, a dictatorship. the headlines. the news continues here and i'll just 0 off the inside story. the u. s. is pulling the loss of its troops,

alphabet gun after a 20 year old war to the conflicts off and the taliban is only offensive, claiming proven. were housed by the government despite international mediation, if it's what does the future hold special coverage or no, $20.00, easy to be in prime minister already on the intent. precious pace is yet another challenge. rebel fighting history to keep re joining forces with on 5 years from his own ethnic group. how much of a threat as opposed to offering office. hence, this is inside. ah hello and welcome to the program mom kim vanelle. months of violence in if you, if he is take re breach and have highlighted the growing ethnic divide,

awakened to old rivalries and produced aud alliances and nobel peace prize winning prime minister. the others might be complicating things even further. earlier this week he called on in his words, all capable, if he opens to join the army and stuff, the regions rebels once and for all, but in a twist of events, the 2 great people's liberation front, the t p l f responded by joining forces with another rebel group, the aroma liberation army to fight the government. it means the conflict is no longer contained in one region, and there are growing fairs. it could lead to an all out civil war. the european government condemns this latest escalation. no group can claim to be for the people for a while. it is using or it is killing the people of the region for its individual political gave. and no entity can also claim to be for the people of the guy where it's also killing its own people and holding them hostage where it's on the political gaze. let's not also forget that a t p left richard killed,

displaced and disappeared. many or more youth brandishing them as part of for their shiny organization. so i don't believe that the youth of me or region are in alignment of this as well, because this is an alignment of to a terrorist organization. now the aroma liberation army is the military wing of the aroma liberation front political party. if you of us largest ethnic group says it suffered a long history of oppression, dating back a century in 2015, planned to expand the capital or the sub a ball further into aroma. farmland triggered 3 years of protests and a violent repression. this eventually forced the resignation of the prime minister and paved the way for i'll be on it and romo himself. but so now accuse him of neglecting the community, just like the leaders of the past. that take away people's liberation from tis the product of the marginalization of the 2 great ethnic minority more than

a century ago. but the group dominated national, if you'll be in politics the 30 years until it became prime minister in 2018. the colored violence is partly a result of a power struggle. at the end of november, the government announced its forces had taken control of take res, regional capital mckelly. but the conflict took a stunning turn in june, went to graham voices, took back mechanic and government soldiers withdrew. since then, the rebels have pressed into the regions of a far in the east and i'm horror in the south. the. by the spring in august, joining us from cambridge, we have william davidson. if you're a senior analyst to international crisis group from the sub bar. sam, you'll get a true from a who is a journalist from if you're here and from london, i will follow senior lecturer in law at kill university, a very one welcome to you will. thanks for joining us here on l. just inside story

i thought to begin with you william davidson, just got out of you with an understanding of how powerful the around the liberation on the actually is and how significant is this development. i think it's a significant development because it's the 1st time a major opposition if i'm position for showing support it's willing and willingness to allies with the grand forces which are showing that capabilities and increasingly on the offensive outside of t grey as they try and pressure the federal government to come to the negotiating table on that terms and ultimately push for a transitional government. and the remote liberation army isn't increasingly important. or no opposition actor. it's apparent, increase in popularity and capability comes eyes and after the major remote

position party, the remote centralist congress, your liberation front. they don't participate in the recent election, alleging government repression. and that seems to have led to an increasing focus on the armor liberation army. and indeed, they have shown signs of increasing capability, okay, very significant political lines. what we haven't seen yet is whether the o l. a really has the same sort of military capability as the pick rand forces have demonstrated. and that will be crucial, of course. so you'll get it, you would like to bring you in. once you take on how this alliance might potentially deepen this conflict, you know, us. so we said, you know, it's a huge coalition milestone in this conflict. but you also have to understand the partnership is only based on 2 bytes. it's not a partnership per se to get into this conflict. the difference between the t p and

left and when they, then night or the last 27 years before the prime minister came to power. they were fighting against the government, the t p. net coalition government. so while it's on a shipment, i have to say, i mean i'm, i don't think it's, it's us grand or huge us. it's being made out to be because the partnership is just at the beginning stage and it might not go forward. i mean, we just have to wait and see, but the children side is a thing that they have more ground or a bigger coalition to fight on their whole pulled, that they will end up in the oil they and that's where we are at the moment. but the conflict says move on, and more people are hurting to be affected by this coalition or the conflict. moving forward, i will follow what's your, what's your take, what's your assessment of this, of this and i,

and do you see both sides expanding their fights to other areas in ethiopia? i think this is an enormously significant development for 2 reasons. one, these are the 2 forces that have the common strategic goal in terms of the future direction of the country. both the automotive ration army that is widely supported now by the ottawa population, which is the largest, if any questions and tina cube. yeah. and 2 different forces agree on the rated future for the future. so the fact that you have that strategic political alliance is significant and on the, on the, on, on the back of the report is going to last. we now have a military alliance between the 2 forces to take on the trip in the to be in government. so, and also it's important from kind of your graphic point of view because that the forces from the northern part have already shown that

a stranger that will be the force of the military. and the region sort of gets to it's probably a category. so they have proven to be a force to reckon with now they are entering into a partnership with the automotive ration army that is, that is operating in the western side of the eastern part of the company. i think for mr. from a kind of graphic point of you also get the 2 forces strategic advantage. and i think, you know, when you look at the political landscape and also the military collisions while we are looking at, it's probably my view of the beginning of the beyond the william, let's come back to you. how do you think that the government will be viewing these developments? and i think that's very, very clear. and partly because both these organizations, as in the last 2 greys ruling party and the remote liberation army,

the government calls it shiny. and both of these organizations have been classified as terrorist organizations. and so i think, you know, that designation signifies just how badly this transition has gone. the idea of this transition was to create a more inclusive political space, any idea and then come to some form of arrangements about the country's future. instead, these actors who have an understanding of ethiopia that it should be organized as a multinational federation. they have been increasing excluded and it be the t l. s . and the 2 grand forces now find themselves in a civil war with the federal government. as a result says, you know that full out, we had a terrorist designations now, but the to grand 4th is one of the offensive to try and force the transitional government, which is some think they are lay and also been trying to achieve what we're saying

here. is an intensification and an expansion of ethiopia, civil war. it is very hard to say, i think, as samuel correctly described, you know, just how meaningful this alliance is going to be. and as, but as i well says, you know, this could be the end of government. but what we know for sure is if this is going to lead to that intensification of the fighting, increasing devastation, not just for the people actively involved in the combat, but also civilians. and the threats that the already is severe closed is stability that we've seen could get even worse as this conflict wide. and so you'll get it to how embattled is the e p o p, an army at this point? i mean, it's been a challenge. i have to admit, but i would have to disagree with are low in terms. so this

a more you that signed by p, p and oil, les being the beginning of the end of their prime minister. that says on indication that it says the end of has euro, i think that's wrong on the wrong assumption. but you know, in terms of the ciocca army, they did face challenges. but you know, the children army is one of the strongest within the africa. and i mean, it will, you know, the prime minister has called for, you know, young people to join. you know, it's a challenge to great remains to be a be challenging aspect of the new prime minister was just the next that, i mean you, we can disagree on how the process of the election and so on. but i'm just saying in terms so him being and like that. but i think they feel been government is the determination is there they have the numbers, but you know, they can really make

a comeback. and but, you know, i have to recognize in terms ofa, lets get into different regions including the regions regents as the, as an indication that the army is not really performing a plan according to the children government. i want to pick out on that samuel about the talking about the army have not performing as it should. you did refer to as one of the strongest on these on the, in the region. a new amnesty report came out, i believe just in the past few days, detailing widespread rape and sexual violence carried out by the ethiopian defense force. and the era trained defense force, and i quote, soldiers and militia subjected to grand women and girls to rape gang, rape, sexual slavery, sexual mutilation, and other forms of torture, often using ethnic slurs and death threats. i mean bet is that is damning. how has the government responded to those allegations?

the government, the children government assisting that there is going to be an open investigation done along with the united nations? i hope that will become a reality. i'm not sure if there's going to be resources because allegations are box that positions are not just with the up and army. it's with us. well, at the t p and left, you know, i've read the reports from international that came out the few days ago. you know, i'm, this international has its own shortcoming. but i respect some, i've read the reports, but the fact, i mean, the investigation has to be, you know, between all sides. and, you know, i've been to the, to grade we've been, i've said this before. allegations are, you know, just within a certain group, it's with old sites and i hope i'm not going to nice not, we'll have a big investigation. so we know exactly what happened. and we can have a roadmap. busy where we can go humans or i feel right, i will,

i to bring you in any reaction that you have to samuel's take on this report from amnesty international. i'm interested and also where do you believe the beginning of this conflict really lay? well, the integrate was in or me, can you explain that to us? yeah, sure. so the conflict is basically ideological in nature is differences of opinion on the future direction. the country have to be, you have on the 100 prime minister, want to synchronize power and wants to return what he's a glorious past of that you have a state if vision of the future that most people integrating part of the country do not agree with on the other hand, you have a vision that is upheld and endorsed by the majority, your police force is integral in other parts of the country which,

which basically calls for a federated your way at reagan. and i want to be respected and people that had a distinct would have the right to use the language, promote the culture, govern themselves originally. but it is this class of visions that have lived to the company. and this was essentially started when the prime minister essentially tended to police and intelligence and core system to marginalize the oppressed to the by the position and go after the migration army in the west. and part where he, when the prime minister went to walk into, right, he has to get into a full scale american petition with the support of the eric because he could not do what he beat me. yeah. the guy with fairly independent. it was very what i was in a position to defend itself. little this class will be just,

i think this was started somewhere, mid the point that the trip, the story was one of the strongest military in the whole. how can i agree with him and it was the kid that until recently, it was one of the most. i think it's a new 34 with significant 3 petition externally and what the pri, mr. deed, by picking the country to the swab without, you know, meaningful consideration of what the consequence of this, why would it be, is to undermine not only the reputation of the military, but almost all the states and institutions. the military that it presents about 110000000 people with the support of the army was force it by defense force. that's the president, the region of 6000000 people. and i think that send us a very negative signal to fade some falls of the food benefit in the region. so, so although the military is fairly strong recently, i think it is no longer in

a position now to even defend itself from bible forces and from organized forces. i was in the country in terms of the obligations of human rights in the report. and i think the report actually only be used to scratch the surface. abuses that we have heard about the body is witness testable to have been in the media. it was shocking . and while it may be true or body forces that are complicit, but the fact that the military that is responsible and mentally responsible have not properly wanted to account for these atrocious crimes. and i think that phase quite a lot about the views of the i'll call it is in the military. so william davison, i don't come back to you, we're talking about the era tray and defense forces for international audience. we

should explain eritrea forces fighting on the side of the ethiopian government, despite many calls for them to withdraw. what is eric tray is interest here. the tri, military has actually significantly withdrawn from the conflicts integrate around the same time as the central government withdrew. that was launched due to the surgeons of the 2 grand forces and now eritrea is and thought to be largely protecting areas of northern take, right. nor beneath that it claims as, as its own, but are disputed. i think it tries motivation was similar to the federal government and wanting to see the back of the t t l. s as a political force, and that's why they joined the federal intervention. but really, the significant thing here is we see these paris designation by the government. we see the calls for every able bodied citizen to join the fight against the last and

against the away. we see the call for militias and extra federal troops and regional. but this is in the context of this war where we have seen these many reports of human rights abuses and essentially integral. and essentially, that's a grand people have stood by their leaders and stood by to graze rights to or to me is a similar situation in the government may designate the terrorists, but what the overlay represents has considerable support from the people. so was the federal government presents itself as legitimate, and therefore, these, you know, counter insurgency campaigns as legitimate and just the problem is that they are going up against huge numbers of people. that is why they are going to be, you know, that is why they have been so devastating sofa both in or may and in some way. and that is why this intensification is said to be so deadly. these are not just small cliques of terrorists. these are actually relatively popular armed insurgencies. so

no, get you on that point around the liberation army leader comes that he says there's going to be a grand coalition against abi, ottoman and that other groups will join in. do you foresee that playing out? i don't think so. what i know for certain is this conflict is not going to end anytime soon. there might be different correlations again between keep up and they just m or you ago was signed by 2 different functions that are a different day and night. and we don't think there will be any, any kind of coalition to defeat ethiopia. there certainly lots of people that, you know, see job becoming like the former yugoslavia like somalia, like the house to done. some of the, you know, nations got their independence but didn't really achieve their objectives. but i think he took that we'll move on to the, from this conflict because he remains an important nation,

a 110 minute people are almost that's. and we're going to begin to see i hope at the end of the tunnel. because again, this conflict, endless conflicts within, within the continence as really is not in the interest of our confidence. there are many, many people that has property and i've been to some of the towns sad all mission william might have mentioned, including with the oral me on nation. go to me at states. and they are just really, really sorry. i was in that come a year ago trying to understand their misgiving. they have with the governments with and it was, it was the real shock and i hope that we'll move forward from this concert. i hopeful ok i will follow if we look regionally won't roll or what role is or should the african union be playing to try and find a way out of this conflict. before i comment on that point,

i just want to say just one, want to make my one point on what is say, some will kind of framed the conflict. and if you would be asked one between e t o b and some, some forces, i think it's a very problematic characterization. this is the view that is kind of promoted by the prime minister, who doesn't even have a popular mandate. he was elected in the election where the prime minister essentially alone, but it's not a conflict between it's your b and some force. it's a conflict between 2 forces in europe. yeah. that are in the south, in sacrament, on the future direction of the country. i think i think that that is very important, but in terms of they've got all the african unique play and the rigid consequences or the complete it should be the largest country in the region of the country

that's responsible for regional peace and stability. while i've been playing very significant sports, we stab lighting some of these countries. i think the consequences of front of the confrontation for grant tablet has been for the fall into the job. yeah. would it be significant for countries in the region we already have border conflict between sudan and europe. yeah. there are some issues between the job and social done. we don't know to what extent relations between the 2 states and they would continue as they are currently, especially given that the grand style control the region to, to, to the north. so the, the, the consequences for the region is significant in terms of the role of the african union. i think that's good and has proven effective in terms of daily with conflicts within member states. the constitutive after the optic annuity and

declared that whenever there are for example, obligations with water cry, i'm trying to get it to mind. if the genocide is increasing, the union is mandated to intervene and to protect and protect the population in the european conflict. what the african union essentially is side with the government and try to play down are close to the big for me to so it's not clear to what extent the you will get you in a car. a reliable, reliable carter for peace national community needs to take a more active role. well, thank you much that we will have to live there for time. big, thank you to all of our guests william davis and then we'll go through and i will hello. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website or just or dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a de inside story. it also joined the conversation on twitter handle is

a j inside story for me, kim vanelle, and the whole team here in bo huh. bye bye. for now, the on counting the call, europe pete fund to fight terrorism. then counter china and russia in africa with activists say they'll provide weapons to dictate the climate emergency costing billions, displacing 1000000 counting the costs. well now, just when a military coup over through chiles marxist president, one stadiums became prisons and the hunters sole objective was absolute control. one man publicly refused to accept the dictatorship episode for a football rebels. explore the life of carlos casale, the football whose personal story swayed a vote,

but altered the history of his country. carlos casserly and the demise of a n day on al jazeera in columbia. in the mid nineties, coca fields covered home stretches of land far from the cities which were now on the high survey and the end of the ninety's people were talking about the potential to coming in august and with the cobra is taking power. drug traffickers sought refuge in the jungle, the mountains went out of the state to reach the fall rights militia is 20000 men. the united self defenders of columbia despised the gorilla. meanwhile columbia, as legitimate military, suffered ambushes by the soldiers were abducted in their hundreds. the systematic killing led to the displacement of millions of people, the power, militaristic, take their own sexual areas. the state could never reach under pressure from the da, the criminals who came off the pablo escobar, one hunted down,

the shell companies with under rest increase play an important role protecting human. ringback face in on the locals fleet to cobble foreigners leave the country as a bond make more games enough. gamma is concerned about the future of women and girls. the un chief says he's deeply disturbed by reports coming from tommy bon controlled area. ah, i'm sammy's a dan, this is just the are alive from dell hall. so coming up.