the situation we have right now will change, so we can function. will you despite the dangers each day, thousands of children arrive in class after braving the capital streets. but for many, the price of education and haiti, his simply become to hi john henderson, l g 0 port prince. ah, how are you watching out 0 and these are the headlines this. our climate campaign is around the world are rallying while they're cooling a global day. of action at the cop twenties examining glasgow activists have expressed their disappointment the promises being made and not ambitious enough. sierra li, owns deputy health minister says at least 99 people have been killed and many others severely burned after a fuel tank explosion in the capital free town. you as president joe biden says he's one trillion dollar infrastructure bill passed on friday. will create millions

of jobs. it was repeatedly delayed because of differences among the democratic party members. yesterday, i don't think is, the exaggeration suggests that we took a monumental step for an estimation. we learned that our economy created 5600000 jobs. since we took office january 20th, recent unemployment rate of 4.6 percent to 4 years earlier than the vast majority economist projected that would happen. and we've just, we're just getting started. we did something odd, that's long overdue. that long has been talked about, the war should, but never actually been done. the u. s. embassy in ethiopia, his capital is now ordering all of its non essential staff to leave the country earlier. and the way he had advised his work is to leave on a voluntary basis a year long conflict with rebels from them than to bry region has worse. and in recent days,

the you and security council has hold for an aide to the fighting pro democracy activists in sudan, a stepping up pressure on the military to restore civilian lead government. the sudanese professionals association has called for a general strike on sunday and monday, general abdel fata albert hans also under increasing international pressure and iraq's prime minister has ordered an investigation into the violin. confrontations that happened in baghdad on friday. some protest is gathered in pants. the capital to continue their criticism of the government. these fellows report suggesting several demonstrators were killed when security forces tried to disperse the crowns . they were angry at the results of last month parliamentary election, insisting the vote was rigged. those are the headlines states you're now inside story. and in the meantime, you can have to our website i was 0 dot com. see what the top of the, our ah, ah,

ah ah, protests against iraq's election results turned violent parties that suffered losses insist last month pole was a fraud. people are increasingly frustrated at the political system. so what's next for a rack? this is insights for ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm rob matheson, iraq's prime minister, has opened an investigation into violent protests against last month's election. at least 4 people were killed on friday when security forces open fire to clear demonstrators in baghdad. dozens more were injured. the fata alliance approach

rainy and political groups had called the demonstrations alley results. show the alliance one about 15 seats that's down from 48 in the previous parliament. the biggest winner appears to be the party of shia cleric marked other asada. electoral commission began a recount of some of the votes last week and said so far the results haven't changed, but that hasn't stopped the processors claims of fraud and loss. the lot. i love more, these price has to is a citizens who came out asking for a manual, recounts of the election. so it is their rice written in the constitution like these a citizen. so came out from all the provinces, boshra a mara, yala. they were citizens asking for their rights on yesterday. a catastrophe happened. god is here as mock, mood underwater has more from baghdad. funeral procession was held for those who

were killed and fridays clashes between protest, toes, and security forces at near above dad's green zone. now these protested his who have been occupying this area for the 3rd week. now the supporters of the previously dominant political parties that lost in the october legislative elections. now, these protest has say they are trying to put pressure on the electoral commission on the government to hold a manual recount of old the votes. now, the electorate commission, on the other hand, says it has conducted at manual recount of about 25 percent of the votes that included the disputed ballot stations. but the results, according to the electoral commission, that is, it's our identical. there are not any different from the previous reserves. now these protests to include many military individuals belonging to the popular

mobilization forces, the popular mobilization mobilization forces of the military arms of the up political posted the lost in the election. but it's interesting because some of them took part in the crack down on the anti government purchase, just back in 2019. now these protesters say that there was continue for testing here until their demands are met. their accusing the security forces of using live bullets and at gas tear gas canisters against them on friday would have to do ahead for inside a studio. but about the ranks parliamentary elections were held a year early. that happened because in 2019 thousands of mostly young people rallied for political change and an end to corruption. but only 43 percent of

voters cast about at the lowest turn out in 18 years. the ok, let's bring in our guests in the northern iraqi, a city of our bill. we have the most are 5, she's a pro democracy activists in the sample. armitage, rusty, he's a director of the house of iraqi expertise foundation and in london. when at monsoon director of the iraq initiative at chatham house have a warm welcome to each of you run out. i want to start with you. how do these protest we're seeing now compared to protests we've seen previously? well, i think what we've seen in the last 24 hours or more is protested in the green zone, not from the same demographics that we saw from october 2019 those, you know, these protests and the last few days to him today are from people linked to certain factions that didn't do well in the elections, primarily linked to the alliance that represents the popular mobilization forces.

so having lost many seats in the elections going from 48 to around 17, they're protesting the election. electra law, the whole process because they didn't do as well. and really what they're trying to say is, this is our power. elections aren't the only tool for government formation. here we are. and where we're, we're, you can hear us loud and clear. so it's very much part of what happened as the different lead come together to form government. notwithstanding the direct results from the elections and these groups that didn't do as well as they had hoped to say, what is going to happen if these predominantly iran, by groups who object to these results don't get what they want. well, absolutely agreed with renowned in any way that the, the one who lost the elections actually now protesting bought them. i think the

most important thing is not the fact that the most important things as the borges outside the, for the real pro iranian militia, like rod ala has bungalow, a new job and so on, all of them down, not inside the hush it. so the problem will be, if they don't have a real political background like that, they actually pushed a block like her who, who lost in the election. it's supposed to be that her group will win at least 2025 seats. that it will, but those militia, in a way or another, that they will have their own umbrella there on political umbrella, which is different from now what happened yesterday is that even the leaders of the fed there go there. like i said, has ali, he went there, asking people to just come down, but also it is

a very important move. was a very important move to stop the political campaign done that much of the southern that because what not that did. first, he changed his negotiation team, which it give us a message, is that the negotiation team, the previous one or the former one, was not eligible to rush up things? the 2nd thing he leaned, actually this negotiation team, this is new negotiation team to, to make a political campaign. why to, to, to start to raising up. or that his idea about getting the biggest, blocked into 170 seats. how's that will happen? he went to see how boise he went to hackman. he went to sealer body and also has negotiation team. so katie b nickos in team in baghdad. and what i knew is that he also, i was ready to go to ever be able to see must road captain, a stroke verizon's,

he to speak about making some sort of majority government. now what's happening yesterday, it was very important to stop all these actions. and we also what's happened actually said mother went from baghdad, go outside baghdad and went to another which show you that how much are the action that happened yesterday was very important to try to balance things in baghdad. so just to be clear, the actions that we saw yesterday were predominantly in your opinion geared towards stopping a campaign that was being put forward by mocked either asada as opposed to an anti government campaign that we have seen in the past. as the most of our, i want to ask you about the level of turner my was back in, i was in baghdad in 2018. and even at that time, people were on the streets, protesting about corruption. they were product protesting about the poor infrastructure, which is endemic, of course, in iraq. and yet now we get to these elections and the turn out is so low. why is

that? well, room, the reason why they turn out to the so low is that people have no more trust in the government and they have no more trust in the system. and they are clearly said that even if we go on vote, it's the same political parties that will when. and the problem was not only with the political parties and the systems and the same faces, but also with the new electoral look what you made it impossible for independent candidates or their hot as smaller political parties to way. even though, despite of this electoral law independent can and it's have one. but the problem is, what is going to happen now? is the government formation going to be any different than before? that's the question. and the people knew that even though in 2019 in october of 200-1900, they were the ones who demanded for

a change. and that's the reason why that happened earlier, but it was still clear for them that no there was going to be no change. that's why they did not vote. unfortunately, the turn out was so low, lower than it has ever been since the fall low. so down st in 2003, and this how many problems? because when the people no longer believe in the process been they have given up on their country really. and this is one of the biggest problems, but we have right now. and let's not forget that the protest that happened on fridays are totally different than the protests that happened 2 years ago. the project which took into account 19 where because people needed their basic, right. they needed electricity, they need to clean water, they needed job, job opportunities, and they needed rest. oh,

this is what they were demanding. so we cannot compare those people to the process which happened yesterday on friday because that protest which happened on friday was led by external powers and led by external people. i mean, let me ask you this iraq parliament, if i understand correctly, is designed to have representation from a wide variety of cultural and religious backgrounds and groupings within iraq. we have to remember that iraq has a very disparate array of different cultures and religious groupings within it. now, on the face of it, that seems very laudable, but it seems to the very structure of it seems to lead us to what appears to be a perpetual stalemate in iraqi politics with situations that you unrelated were talking about earlier, where there is horse trading going on there are deals being done, people are trying to get hold of them the, the most important, the most lucrative, if you're like ministries and how much of that is co,

is driving the problems that iraq is currently facing. well, i think the rock now facing 3 main problem was it's a new political system than doug established after 2003, number one legitimacy. now legitimacy, it can be given by the people. and we all know that the turn out was very low. show you how much people desperate from this political system. this is the 1st. the 2nd thing is dad, who is getting benefit from their low turnout. it looks like that the solder of block or took the majority $73.00 seats. but at the same time, even the suntrust get only $800000.00 a votes from all of iraq. and if you are counting the suckers, especially in the southern city inside like that, which is baghdad, 8000000. they have 2000000 and the other city and the southern city,

the one who eligible to vote is about 1w1w and something. so you can imagine even inside the sundress, they also has a lotor are now. but while the southern that is that this is just for the 3rd thing is the new, the new low. yes, the suckers get the majority, but also it gives 20 percent for the independence and independent candidates. so it show you that there is it when you a chance, if this lot stay there, there is a chance in the next elections which may be in 11 year that does not forget if a compromise happen, which i think it will happen between the suntrust and the others, that means it's only for a one year government. then after that there will be demonstration led by the cyprus because they always doing something like that. it's their political behavior, just one year. take your minister ministry's take your money, the at said finish the government. so i think if this law will stay there,

it will push us for a new hope because we're already have 20 percent independent or candidates that means or independent empties. now that that me is in the next governments maybe are dispersed vantage will be higher or not. we are talking about groups of course, which have weapons and have demonstrated in the past that they are prepared to use those weapons. given everything that armand has just said with regard to the this law, how confident do you think you could be that this is not going to spiral into another scene of violence that we have unfortunately seen in the strings of streaks of iraq in the past? i think there's 2 things here to to note. one is the question of whether these groups, all political parties in iraq have arms. it's heavily militarized society, whether the center is on one side and fed. and my like you, on the other side will actually come to a confrontation,

people in the past that kind of predicted at some point you might have a internal she, our civil war. i think, although we will see tit for tat violence. it's highly unlikely that that will happen right now. what's happening is the fact that, and my like you are trying to remind the centrists that, you know, government being formed is not only on who wins at the ballot boxes. but it's much more than that. and we are here and we have weapons and we have force. and so that gives us a seat at the table. and so because of that, just like in the past, i think the side just won't have the appetite to go to an all out compensation. which means that that war within the different groups will probably be minimized. even though we will still still see tit for tat violence, but there's another kind of violence that's important, which is the violence that has been suppressing the protest movements and civil society in particular, since 2019 of october that has become solidify the iraqi

political system has viewed protests and civil society as the biggest threat. all the parties have come together, notwithstanding their differences inside the state and outside the state to work together to suppress, to repress mobilization of protesting civil society. those independence, this youth generation that increasing every year, more and more, are under fear. so if the lessons of 2018 election was that many iraqis didn't think that voting could bring about change. sadly, a lesson were learning and blank. the last few years is that protests are far more dangerous game. they used to be the last few years. you've had a systematic campaign of assassinations of any leader who could mobilize independent protesters. that campaign continues, and it's sanctioned by the state. and because of that, a lot of civil society,

it's not all live in fear of mobilizing, and that's why we don't see as many protests as you would have in october, 2019. as in how do you mobilize people and energized people to take to the streets in support of democracy in support if we wanted of political change, if they are facing the kind of threats that ranada says they're facing. well, i absolutely agree with 3, not the problem is the people are very scared. they are scared for their own last big when they're a protest, there are innocent people who are, who are just demanding their basic rights. and they want to live in peace and prosperity. but there are external groups who come and join. and these groups not only kill them at some point, but they threaten their families even after their death. and this is the real problem. people are scared, but there are people, there are some others who really want to make a change,

and they keep on fighting for, for the fact. but it's impossible in a society that is so politicized where there is so much guns and with, with every political party and where they are external powers, that we don't even know where they can be. and when they can join the protests, because i am sure that when and after this or civil society or normal youth go on the streets, they do not want violence because they are already tired of our people. our youth are tired of the life they are having right now. so when they go on the street, all they want is peace. but they stand all power and the political power to not one thing. not only didn't, but only yesterday want one of the independent candidates to watch when there was an attempt for assassination, but you survive. so it's not only for the civil society or the people want to protect, but also for the independent candidate will have elected them. so,

and the question and who is behind all of this and why army allowing break fees to come rules for us. and these are all a points we need to focus on. and the thing is we need to make our use believe in voting system again, because even though some people say there is, there was brought in the elections, which happened, which happened last month. the, i had the independent tie election commission should come on tv. true, and now the real results they should bring back the hope in people and say that if there was drug or have been complain, what the complain where the complaints where and to explain all of this because the government and the whole system, all of that to the society to explain what has been done and how the process was and what should be done in the next test. when you talk about

b and the independent candidate tact here. so you mentioned yesterday we're talking about friday. that's correct, isn't it? yes, yes, we're not, i wonder why i want to ask you because we're referring constantly to these quote, external powers that appear to be taking action within what inside iraq and appear to be doing so with no responsibility, no accountability whatsoever. let me ask you this, 1st of all, can we identify or are you in a position to be able to identify who those external powers are. secondly, if mccloud are al solder is placing himself as a nationalist and he refuses any outside influence. how likely is it that you think the voters in iraq could actually follow looked either outside or if it meant an end to the external powers interfering in a rag that i seen was just talking about? so i mean, since 2003, iraq has been to play grounds for external actors. and it was

a government brought to the iraq is from a broad the decisions of how the system would be formed was made abroad. and since then, really, iraqis have been at the behest of external powers. initially, it was the u. s. occupation. and then increasingly, of course, the most dominant external power has been iran. but of course, let's not forget as well turkey's role in particularly northwestern iraq. and it's influence there, so really iraq is in the middle and of these very strong regional powers and the strongest being iran, iran which has strong ties. not just to the sort of, you know, the militias that we often look at, but too many kurdish parties. many sydney parties you're on has strong ties into the iraq. you formal government, outside the formal government. it's by far the strongest external power and it's, you know, and it's not perfect, then it's not, it makes mistakes and it's not as strong as some would say. but compared to the

other regional and external actors, iran is definitely the strongest one. now government formation, since 2003 has been influenced by external actors, iran leading the campaign, but also the americans are involved the gulf. i mean turkey every sort of country in the region and abroad that has an interesting iraq is able because at the end of the day that sort of bottom up power of the iraqi system isn't there. many of the leaders don't have enough. now this needs to your 2nd question on what you know will look the other 2. although he's one he doesn't have enough to on his own form, a majority. which means that he'll have to bring certain parties together. and he has tried, as was said to bring together, for example, the k d p. and i'm to the side to drink raina majority. however, he will be threatened. he will have to,

at the end of the day come to the table. so while his initial ambition is to create a majority, terry and government that excludes the fact there and man rekey and those groups that are seen as closer to iran. i believe at the end of the day it will still be a national consensus government just like it has been every time a government has been formed and we're beginning to see already the, you know, for many months now the negotiations over that. and let me bring you in here because is the structure of government that you think might be possible given everything that we've just talked about, given the situation and iraqi politics at the moment that could actually lead iraq forward out of this perennial hiatus that it seems to be working in and has been for for several years. while rob, what's happened yesterday, it looks like it will stop the train on the southern. we're now going to make a majority government. it looks like a band. they will compromise,

they will reach the compromise of i think the media will be who is actually taking in concern the file of iraq. and maybe the negotiation has started from yesterday night and the messages now and everyone is looking for a compromise. but how it will be managed as a compromise, does the federal court will go for manual for many with counting votes that play on their own that way. maybe they will be change of seats, but even the change of seats will but it will not that he will not. it will differ when make it a real difference, but eventually changes or some seats, number of seats, it will give a, let's say, a push for a new negotiations between all the shot inside the house to try to unite themselves

in a way or another. but let us not forget, i seen the new government if, if it is, will be formed in a compromise, the prime minister will be also come from. i me, the problem is will not be back. but by those blocks, he will be independent just like me, and i'm just a thank you very much indeed. and thanks to all i guess as we must, as i see and run out months or i'm thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website all 0 dot com 9 for further discussion. go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story, you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is a inside story, means you're not with them on the whole team here to bye for now. i ah,

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