that we have a means to protect against those scientists hope the small impact will be a huge step forward to protecting a potentially devastating impact on us lore that a manly al jazeera now manuscript by albert einstein laying out his theory of relativity has sold at auction in paris to $13000000.00. the 54 page document by the nobel prize winning physicist and his collaboration michelle besser was written in 19131914. ah, this is algebra and these other headlines. europe is struggling with a new wave of the current of virus. germany is set to mock a 100000 deaths while france in the netherlands are among those reporting record numbers of infections. he does, of several german political parties have agreed to form

a coalition government following 2 months of talks. schultz is now points to take them from anglo michael as chancellor, early next month. the social democrats who won the election in september will lead that coalition. that also includes the greens on the free democrats police in france say at least $27.00 migrants have drowned after their boat sank off tele, they were trying to reach britain across the english channel. he's your prime minister. i be asked net is said to us now left the capital, heading to the front line to lead his troops and battle. ma comes just hours after the united nations ordered the immediate evacuation of its international staff. jury deliberations had resumed for a 2nd day and the army aubrey mounted trial in the u. s. 3 white men charged with chasing and killing the 25 year old black men in georgia. last year. they faced several charges including felony murder, but there are fears that the men could be found not guilty. before i'm an attorney,

i'm a black man, and i have black children. and my guy, if america can come down this, then all parents who have children, carla, we can't protect the non accused of driving his vehicle into a christmas parade in the u. s. as he walk sure has appeared in course 6 people killed the latest victim, an 8 year old child. more than 60 people still remain in hospital. police say, darrell brooks deliberately drove his car into the annual parade and he's been charged with homicides. well, those are the headlines. i'll have a news out for you here on al jazeera off the inside story, stay with me.

ah, ah, he'll prices and inflation a rocketing in the us. the presidents ordered millions of barrels of oil to be released from the country's strategic reserves. is that gonna make a difference? or is it just a bid to boost his all in approval ratings and several other countries joining in this is in say, story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm rob matheson, it's a rare move that president joe biden hope's will help ease us petrol prices and reduce inflation. that's had

a 31 year high. he's tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve. 50000000 barrels of oil are being released and that's roughly what the u. s. uses in 2 and a half days. several other countries have also agreed to use their emergency reserves. biden's critics say it's a temporary fix. some argue it's a political move to help is sagging approval ratings, but the president says there isn't enough oil on the market to meet demand, and that's pushing up prices. he's asked the organisation of oil producing countries known as opec plus to increase its output. i brought together other nations to contribute to the solution, india, japan, republican korean, the united kingdom have agreed to release addition. oil from their reserves and china may do more as well. this coordinated action will help us deal with the lack of supply, which in turn helps ease prices. well, this is how america strategic petroleum reserve works. it holds just over 600000000

barrels of oil, mostly in underground caverns, in the southern states, texas and louisiana. it was created after arab states, led by saudi arabia impose an oil embargo in the u. s. and 1973. it's designed to store oil for use in an emergency. international energy agency is responsible for managing global oil supplies, and it says, member countries can only release reserves during wars or natural disasters, and not just to correct prices. well, joe biden isn't the 1st u. s. president to tap into the reserve. barack obama did the same in 2011 to offset disruptions in supply because of the war in libya. our white house correspondent, kimberly hall, hood explains why the move hasn't been welcomed by everyone. what the criticism has been, is that this might resolve the issue in the short term and lead to some, in the immediate future, lower gas prices. but ultimately, because the issue of supply and demand globally has not been resolved, that this will drive the prices up. so what you heard there is the president not

only saying, look at this is a global problem, but the fact that he's also saying that this will work out in the end one point to know. and all of this is that with regard to the release of these reserves, the president isn't just releasing it all over night. in fact, there's going to be one person down in the 1st 3 months and then another portion in the coming months. and this he believes is going to allow for this kind of staggered approach that will ensure as the supply catches up to the demand as a result of people turning the economy back on. due to the coven pandemic, that this will resolve those issues. and the prices will stabilize at a lower rate. that's what this bind administration is counting on. one other announcement in there of importance, and it really affects domestic consumers, though, is the point that the president was making that he believes oil and companies are exploiting the situation. and really he accuse them essentially

a price gouging of illegal behavior as they are now seeing lower rates and the oil supply, not passing that on to the consumer. so the president announcing there that he will be investigating that, ah ok, let's bring in our panel of guess i'll be right, john, is it research director of energy intelligence? he's joining us from new york in bern. karnilia meyer is an energy analyst. she's also ceo of my resource, and heading glycine is director of energy climate and resources. you raise your group and joins us from london. thank you all very much for being with us. i'll be going to start with you. how much of this is about cooling down oil prices and how much of this is about president biden's falling approval ratings? it's a great question and it's, it's really about it. but every thanks for having me on today, it's really about the both related. right. i think the administration is lighting

the messaging and the data around inflation probably as certainly with, with energy and then petroleum products. it's, you know, it's from senator there. i think they're, you know, they're having the economy is certainly one of the aspects of their polling that comes out. we can. right. so, so i think, i think there's certainly a targeted client to address that. and yeah, and certainly, laura, oil prices go away. we're just about to, you know, go into thanksgiving weekend. i'm just about to hit the road myself in an hour, you know, followed by and we'll have the holidays and you know, later in december i'm just give you a lot of mobility, a lot of trouble coming up here in the us and you're wanting to lower the price of the pump is certainly a key prior to so it goes hand in hand for sure. you know, i think, i think the, you know, we'll probably get to it later the conversation. i think the, the focus of this is short term price lease. i think there are some, some medium term consequences. they're going to come as a result. can enter the u. a energy ministers being reported to have. sadie sees no

logic in the u. e, putting more oil into the market because there's predictor to be, if i understand correctly, a surplus at the start, at least in the 1st quarter of next year, i understand the opec plus is due to meet in the early part of december. how do you think it's going to react to this? well, opec plus will sort of have to, we gather all this and they will not react much. i mean, they will, for december, it's all down because they have over time released 400000 barrels a day. for 44, and this is sheffield, this, this increase is scheduled to go all through april, so they might just reduce that the little bit. but opec, das boy see for the whole of 2022. actually quite the significant supply. an overhang which, the e, i, a, the american, and the t h and c, and the international energy agency out of paris. also for c,

especially for the 1st quarter as supply overhang. but notice dramatic. it for opec . it's in the 1000000 plus barrels a day for the other states in the home that $2.00 to $300000.00 barrels a day. so. so there is a divergence of how people look at that. but it is pretty clear that next year, certainly in january we will see a supply overhang, adding as abby was explaining, it seems as though it would be easy to assume that this was just a u. s. issue on dealing with the prices there. and also the, the falling approval ratings of the president there. why of other countries joining with us? thank. thank says, invitation as well. so, i mean, 1st of all be part of the station of other countries so far is, is symbolic at best. so india, so far committed $5000000.00 barrels the case after japan. we said how much it

china has been doing this independently anyway. but in the case of india, japan, south korea, and of course, britain, it is almost thirdly, political support would be united states of china, japan, south korea, our strategic allies of the u. s. is, is the most important partner and britain. now, freshly out of the you are also seeks close relationships with the united states. so this is, this is the symbolic joining for them, all of an actual additions are supplied. none of them will bring anywhere near as much was the market as the us have done. and it shows that it last via, as i said earlier, program a domestic effort to, to use pump prices in the us rather. ready than the global connected you mentioned before the, the, the international energy authority and it's position in this. if i understand it correctly, it's going to rule that says countries cannot release strategic or reserves for

anything other than crisis situations is we sort of alluded to before, but its rules also say that the i e a can't get involved if it might affect market prices, one kind of begs the question, what is the point of the i e a in a situation like this? well, the, i 8 is the, is the agency off the, off the o e c d countries? and then yes, there are the rules, but then america is the 500 pound gorilla in the room. so the 500 pound gorilla may choose to do other things. and them, you know, the question is, how do you define a crisis? i think for president biting this was a crisis, and he has tried several times to entice opec plus 222 men lift more barrels and they have them in my view, rightfully said no, we will not do that. we will not be beholden to to us pressure. so so,

so the question is, what is, what is, what constitutes a, what constitutes a, what constitutes a crisis and, but they to bytes administration does not just look at they from, oh, we need petrol, and we need the price of petrol at the pump to go down that will have a time that asked by in step himself, they also look at they'd been worried about the inflationary pressure and inflation can be considered an economic crisis. bobby, you were talking about the timeline of this earlier wrong, but as clearly was saying was just referring to there. the president himself admits that this is not going to happen immediately. and this is actually worth doing, given the fact that the response or the reaction if you're like, isn't going to be as quick as one would imagine. the bible ministration would like it to be leading up to holiday season. and i think they were effectively compelled to look like they were going to do. they're going to look like they were going to do something. right. i think, i think that's,

that's what i came down to. you know, it was mentioned earlier that the contribution from india from japan, south korea, u, k, r, just dropped from the bucket in terms of what the actual volume are actually, you know, actually markets. oh, you know, what, what did you, thing is, is the u. s. and itself is also fairly small. no, it is 50000000 barrels right. of which $18000000.00 barrels will be accelerated, a pre approval to be brought forward under the remaining $32000000.00 barrels or an exchange. so they have to replace, you know, over time, depending on who takes it out. so, you know, the, the actual amount is, is fairly small. as i mentioned earlier, you know, it's going to be phased over the next several months. i mean, did you, us because you over 20000000 barrels of oil per day and overall 50000000 barrel, you know, releases, you know, is fairly marginal. you know, i think the, you know,

they felt compel to look like they were doing something. now, you know, the, the actual impact is going to be, you know, fairly limited. you know, the one thing i wouldn't know though is, you know, kind of back, you know, couple of weeks ago i'm oil prices were, you know, use for breath. you're heading towards 90, so just be the talk out there in the market of, of the fact there was going to be next your release of coordinated one. i'm has cool prices off. however, what was actually announced yesterday from all the different countries. yeah, it was fairly underwhelming, it's hard to see exactly what the market could have. what expected, you know, some of that 100000000 barrels will be some said a little bit more is what would have been needed to get price to go down. obviously the, the actual amount was fairly underwhelming, but again, we did have some effect. um, but, you know, in terms of the actual barrel impact, it's going to be fairly limited. so, you know, it was kind of more a, you know, a,

you know, an announcement for the sake of making an announcement. the actual is going to be fairly new. yeah. i know both cornelia and how they want to make points are clearly i'm going to come to you 1st of all come to you next camelia. well, i think yes, it is fairly small compared to 600000000 barrels a day, but it is the largest ever release of s p r s that the u. s. has undertaken let us not to get during the 1st gulf war in 1991. they only released 17000000 barrels a day when libya came asunder in 22011. they released 13000000 barrels a day. so in that context, it's quite a bit. ab is absolutely right in terms of the oil price came down about 8 percent since the talk of the release of strategic research. and then it came in, but yesterday it rose. and to me that is

a classic in stock market. you have to buy on the rumor and sell on the fact and that was a classic classic event like this happening. you want to make a point? sure, i just followed up a little bit. it's, i disagree slightly with one thing here. so at the bottom, it ministration clearly wanted to bring this headline out, that $50000000.00 barrels, that it is not $50000000.00 barrels per day. it is $50000000.00 barrels of the stretch of 4 months, which is far less. and we don't know what all these 50000000 barrels will be released. the 2 tranches separated us was that one of them is a loan. the other one was already announcing back in 2018. so if you look at the nitty gritty is actually less and it's actually less than both, for instance, the 2011 release which was $30000000.00 barrels over a month. so the actually is probably a little bit lower. however, i do fully agree that it was the action that was needed. it and, and it was said earlier that we needed a just threatening on announcing this whole down prices of the last 4 weeks.

but what does happen now is indeed that the market said, all right, part of this was already priced in the, especially the smaller trucks that was announced back in 2018. it's just being pulled forward. but the other blood is, of course, that now on the market is expecting opec to, to scratch its head and said, well, does the market really need the 400000 barrels the day that we've been planning to add? and the answer is probably, or maybe, i mean, i don't really know that they'll hesitate because as we'll said earlier, correctly that the market is expected to flip into over supply and opec. so you won't, doesn't want to add to that because they have to spend one and a half years growing this, these high inventories down and trying to pass it again. and this is a problem. the market is being politicized between producing consumers and that is best basically not will be, i was there for and it should be used to price influencing and that's, but the problem that we see is the put is ation of oil markets. and i think he

wanted to come in there. yeah. just one when i was referring to earlier around just a mismatch in supplying demand. right. i think, i think ultimately what this comes down to is the fact that u. s. domestic. know what bills last week was, demand is effectively recovered a bit already, but supplies still remains, you know, significantly lower, right. you close to 1000000 barrels it, lower for oil. and i think this is, this is sort of the key mismatch that the administration is sort of dancing around with that is for the, the, the key mismatch and then topic that's going to be driving prices over the know the short medium term of a, you know, obviously there's a focus on their transition and kind of a longer term. sure. where from oil consumption, but the short term demand is going, or in fact, you know, on our numbers, we see record little demand. you know,

as early as may or june next year or 21000000 barrels a. i'm at is going to go higher from there as it was not keeping up at all. and i think, but in the fact that demand continues to grow higher actually makes the garage see, are you kind of a more dangerous tool when you think about where demand to go next summer? i mean how take the market to be next summer and beyond. just wanted to add that in there, happy to grow more color on that. but i think the, you know, the short term lease is, is actually quite short sighted in terms of where demand is going to be going on over the next one months. and you can iliad somebody made the point earlier, and i do, i don't understand how the oil market works and you guys do. so i'm relying on you . but without wanting to oversimplify too much, one would imagine that even going to get rid of what is if i understand what you guys are saying, a relatively small amount, comparatively speaking, if the,

if that is going to be released on to the market. that still has to be replaced, and one would imagine that the placing that is going to leave the u. s. and others open to having to buy that, that replacement oil one would imagine at a higher cost. and that seems counterproductive to tell me if that is going to how that actually works. well, it may work, but then again, opec forecast has forecasted a really substantial over supply for the whole of next year. and yes, demand in the us may go up, but, but look at what's happening in europe. now, you know, we, we are not, nobody thinks we're out of the woods with the virus yet. and if you look at the new lock downs in europe, if you look at what's, what's happening in, in asia, also with the virus. so you know, how quickly will will tourism will international air travel really be bound where you have a big domestic market. yes, it will be found, but how much,

how quickly we did really and how sustainably will it rebound over over, over the next year? so as long as we're still stuck with with this virus. so then there is that and then we have one other thing we have seen that the u. s. shell produces has not really up to their production either they have really good. they have not, they have not stepped up to the, to the challenge, so to speak. because they 2 are very sort of wary of, of where it's going. so it's nice to have good demand forecasts. but the proof of the pudding there is in the eating and again, these demands supply forecasts very so differently between what opec sees, what the international energy agency sees. and what the us entity information agency sees that it's really hide to get a, a neutral picture of this. and i want to come back to a point that you were,

i think you were making earlier about whether or not the, the oil companies are actually going to buy in on any of this for this loan or the sales and so on. i mean, president biden has asked the federal trade commission to immediately investigate further illegal activity by oil and gas companies is pushing up gas prices. one would imagine that least some of those companies are going to be the ones that he's going to want to take verse or is that gonna work counter productively for him? i don't know whether there was illegal activity in the us to be honest. but it's, it is an interesting point that that's under reported under notice. but you know, it really thing to be honest by the u. s. government isn't just, you know, something all this crude oil into some big pool that everyone then gets. it does need to take a need take it. and the 1st tranches mentioned you mentioned earlier is, is a loan. so if you take a loan now that you have to repay in, in a couple of years time, you are ex, effect. we taking a pun,

they bet on fuel prices, and it depends very much on the condition that this loan will be off of that, whether you want it or not. and the 2nd trash will be put out in an ultimate tender and it just will depend on whether the the private. ready oil industry figures, that's a good deal because b and this is a big difference between us and china, which is also released as of last month. china isn't part of the lineage agencies that are not bound by this pledge to not influence prices. they're quite open about whether they like prices or not. and also, and in china, the vast majority of companies will vote. so the government just a lot of what to do that is not the case in us and that will make it a little bit more complicated. there can any, i know you wanted to come in here. what go ahead. i totally agree with coming. and i just would like to add $11.00 element here. i have a little bit of a hard for oil companies all produces because on the one hand,

you tell them or the will tell them, well, you know, fossil fuels, we really have to face you out. on the other hand, one asks them in the medium, the short term to invest is a terribly on to invest. that if you look last this year, it was last year was over 400000000000. invent in upstream oil and gas, which is which is about half of what was invested in 2014 so so, so they're terribly hungry invested. so we asked them to invest to produce but we say basically are the dinosaurs we want to face you out. and that makes it a little bit difficult, you know, with all the, with all the e s. g, which we all want to save the planet. don't get me wrong. we all want to save the planet. but with all the e s. she obligations that these companies are facing and the, the uncertain future anti very uncertain regular regulatory environment in

especially, or we see the countries, it's really a top spot that they're in abby, i know you wanted to come in there. we're getting to about a minute and 15 seconds left on the show. so if i can ask you to be relatively brief about how you want to respond, i'll be very quick just to extend a point on companies know the companies, capex and spending budgets are controlled by investors. are the ones to go look to if you want to increase short term supply. and that's really where the administration should be, you know, making their own calls. they want companies to produce more. it's not the companies themselves. and then the 2nd one i want to make is you mentioned it earlier, you know, one of the things that most closely went to oil prices is in our inventory levels. and, you know, dave, to forward cover, right? for future demand. demand continues to go up. yeah. it will be virus use of the short term, but as we saw with adults are very, they're pretty transient. you know,

we see it will demand growth, you know, back to recall levels and 6 to 9 months and going up for the next, you know, 7 to 10 years. and if there's not enough supply to keep up with that, it's going to continue to draw down inventories. and if you more to draw on inventories of which of course, s yars are part of it. you know, the more you put up a restaurant. so, you know, with point is, this is all just sort of setting up for, you know, multi year, you know, upward pressure on oil prices, even if there's some short term relief to get through thanksgiving. be thank you very much. indeed. we're going to leave it there and i want to say thanks to all our guests. i rearrange john cornelia meyer and having goldstein. i'm thank you to of course for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just see about dot com on for further discussion. go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is a inside story for me,

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