to generations, and the worst of this is yet to come. dollar and children like him, me public health services that don't exist here. we did much of the money made from cobalt mining, goes abroad. is hardly any help for the people who suffer its effect. malcolm web al jazeera, co wavy democratic republic of congo, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake has struck the western coast to peru, its damage, roads and buildings in peruse. amazon us regional parts of a 16th century church level. so collapsed list. 3 people injured tremors felt in neighboring ecuador and columbia. ah, went out as they were, these are the headlines. 13 passengers traveling from south africa to amsterdam of tested positive for the new army kron variance of covey. 19, at 2 cases,

confirmed denmark, another 2 in australia near barker in london with more. it was 624 passengers on 2 flights, one from cape town, one from johannesburg, had arrived in the netherlands on friday. all $624.00 were held for several hours while this testing was under way and those that have tested positive for either the original variance or the new variant are now isolating. we believe a shipple airport in a designated hotel. it is, of course, one of the largest international travel hartzer in the world. and the dutch understandably are being very, very cautious about how, how they play this. at the headlines, european nations are promising to calm down on people smugglers after 27 people died. crossing the english channel, france convened tolts hon. valving ministers responsible for immigration from germany and from the netherlands and belgium. but britons invitation was withdrawn

. the french president, emanuel micron accused the british prime minister boss johnson of not being serious about cooperation. sudan says 6 of its soldiers had been killed during an attack by ethiopian forces. this was at an army post near a contested border area in gather if state the military says its forces repelled the offensive and inflicted heavy losses on the armed group, ethiopians army chief denies his soldiers though, had any involvement holes of clothes focused on the election, just days after claims of a plot to overthrow president sandy dropped off. he had promised free and fair peaceful elections after lost his vote was disputed and triggered riots that hosted the previous governments. i will see for the news hour in about 25 minutes time, the lightest, of course, on the new cove. it variant next though, it's the latest edition of inside story with him run con. ah,

tensions a high once again, between russia and ukraine, moscow's deploying troops along the border. and here is warning of a possible invasion. what's triggered this crisis, and can it be contained? this isn't a story. ah, ah, hello, welcome to the program. i mean we're on con, ukraine is accusing russia of mobilizing tens of thousands of soldiers near the shed border. the movement of rushes, 41st army units is raised, phase a military offensive might be on the way. it's the 2nd time this year. moscow is

a mass combat ready forces in the region on friday, ukrainian president vladimir zalinski said russia was planning a cute to overthrow his government. moscow rejected those allegations. i'm blamed, kia and the us for the escalating tensions. president joe biden says he's likely to speak to both leaders to ease the dispute. russia seized ukraine's at crimea region in 2014 and back separatists territories in the east. nato has warned moscow that any attempt to invade ukraine would have serious consequences. we'll get to again shortly, but 1st this update from charl stratford in easton, ukraine ross's intentions of course, remain unclear, but one thing is certain, and that's moscow. continuously denying that it has any intention of invading ukraine. and that's the kind of language, the kind of accusations that are being made by certainly western leaders and the international media language that the kremlin has described as being both malicious

and hysterical. we also know though, that president putin is very unhappy with ukrainian leadership here, describing it as foot, dragging in implementing it side of a peace agreement signed in 2015. an agreement that so many analysts say is very much weighted in russia's favor and could potentially give russia too much control of ukrainian internal affairs. and meanwhile, the international community, ukraine's allies in nato, the us, france, and germany, for example, warning russia of serious consequences. if indeed there was to be a further escalation, but it remains to be seen just how far they would go to protect ukraine. if indeed such a disaster was to happen. just wrap it for inside story and abdi of cur, easton ukraine, the annexation of crimea, and 2014 worse and ties between the west and russia. moscow sees the region from ukraine in march,

2014 prompting international condemnation and sanctions. and the following month war broke out in east, in ukraine between russian backed separatists and the ukrainian army. more than 13000 people been killed in the fighting. and at one point about a 1500000 people were displaced. now in 2015, france and germany broke at a peace agreement per efforts to reach a political south went, have failed. ah, that's broken, i guess. joining us live from care of alexi her an a professor at the kia that maria academy, and the director of research, a democratic initiative foundation from fairfax virginia john herbst. he's the senior director of the atlantic councils, erosion center, and a former us ambassador to the ukraine and from moscow. pavel falcon. how he's a defense and military analyst, and a column is fur nova gazette, a warm welcome to you all. let's begin in care of 1st with a lexi harangue. there's no way vladimir putin is actually going to invade. is he?

well, we don't know. we don't know what other calculations of which is we need to knows. busy and actually go to invade the ukraine in 2014 here. next crimea in violation of alls, international agreements including gradually cranium breed. and then he moved. he's a regular groups in the bus in the east. oh, great. so i put him, invaded the ukraine. russian troops here and despite all the agreements that were assigned to regarding ceasefire and the 1st 5 also signed in 2014, the next and 2015. ringback you have, you met us, use fire now you also use fire, but i've just checked the pool, the daily report, or special when you are in mission, all or se,

organization for security dunker ration in europe. and just yesterday, there were 800 violations, all use fire one d. so basically that he's on who in russia, ukraine young with ups and downs. we don't see a large military offensive right now. but at any time there could be a possibility. but so alexi, what you're saying is, effectively the war never ended from 2014 to continue violations. yeah, yeah, i hear that you are sincerely surprised, but this is a fact because ok, as i have said, grania is all you buy and even don't boss. one 3rd of them boss, which is around 2 percent of you paying, and that is what you're buying by russia eats,

pop it resumes and 0 violations every day. and ukrainian soldiers and civilians are being killed. well, that's bringing power fell. going to how i hear from moscow, what do you make of those comments of the war never ended. the civilians are dying every day. oh yes, it didn't really, and there is no political solution. and skirmishes have continued in the done boss for many years already. though the line of control has not changed. so it's a kind of standing. it's a conflict. you can call a fully frozen because skirmishes continue. but that's a very low level. and since there is no political solution and right now, there seems to be no meaningful negotiations. even plan and an arm and the so

called format has be now so frozen. that means there's a possibility of a escalation of the fight thing. and the rhetoric on both sides is becoming increasingly toxic, i mean on all sides. and that's a very dangerous situation. it's not an imminent conflict, maybe escalation, but it's potentially very serious and could come in months or maybe even a number of weeks a pub will just talk to me about vladimir putin. so thinking, why now, and why this level of escalation, all the level of escalation has been building up. ah, during the years and especially in the year 21, we're lucky. it break out into a big region a warm. but the threat is there a mosque over said many times that they are red lines,

that integration of ukraine into nato and the urine. so they go american military assets on gradient territory is totally unacceptable for russia and meaning that most likely rushes in the last resort is ready to go to war to prevent that. but there is a possibility of still resolving the thing without a confrontation, but with each passing month, the possibility our regional war is growing. well, one of the players in the conflict will be, or is in fact a joseph biden. the u. s. president, we have the former us ambassador to the ukraine, a john hubs to sat with us in fairfax don't. i mean, is it? he's in a rock and a hard place. he'd like, how does biden deal with this? if he doesn't act on you crying, he's going to be seen as being weak. but if he does act, there's a, there's a threat to russia there. look,

i think by understands will the dangers of the current situation. um mosque l launched an aggressive war against ukraine in 2014, which continues to this day. they ceased crimea and they began as cover military operation done boss. the court military operation done boss was designed to crush a key if to pursue the end is pursuit of a western leaning for foreign policy. hooton's operation done bosses cell is limited. limited military aggression in don boss has not moved ukraine direction. he was that's what he's threatening escalation by unrecognised escalation would be a. ready very bad thing for american interest. that's why he stated very clearly and his secretary of state and separative, st offense have stated very clearly that there will be punishing additional sanctions on russia if couldn't escalate substantially. we are also sending more

military supplies to ukraine. so the ukraine will better be able to defend itself. now, to the russian military is much stronger than ukrainian, or russian probably sees any point in ukraine. it wants to, it uses its full conventional military forces including its air force includes navy . but it's also true that many russian soldiers will die. this and the russian public has said multiple times and pulls from the bottle of vodka center. they don't want russian troops fighting in ukraine. they don't want russia to be fighting against ukraine. so for bruton to escalate substantially is a very serious gamble. and by and i think is speaking in clear and strong terms about what would happen. it doesn't in care of a likes he just had to august in virginia as i had to say. now ukraine gets a lot of military aid from the u. s. government already has been getting it since 2014. it's got a partner effectively. in the u. s. is the u. s. going to be able to be

a broker for p, say old. you think their role is it's, it's well too complicated for law for something as simple as that look 1st of all, oh we, we here since 2015, we hear russian propaganda. russian needs to invade ukraine because of threats from naples. and this is thought ally, ally, because before to actually 2014 ukraine had known block status support as of nato in the ukraine. we're all we're seeing minority because we ukrainians believes that we could have good pragmatic relations with rush. we had the treaty with rush, we had the budapest memorandum where russia wrong is to be a guarantee that all ukrainian territorial integrity. so there was no talk about

natal in 2040. and then in 2014 russian aggression stopped and it completely changed the views of you great. that we saw that in any case, we're, even if your brain is outside of the, even if you grain is in utica, it doesn't prevent from russian aggression. that's why i definitely will need the support from service. and we understand that nobody will fight for ukraine because we are not in the go. so what we are asking since 2014 is military hill. unfortunately, this military help was believed. president obama did provides was these help. ah, the javelins and they've done a weapons, a ukrainian started to receive only on the ground with ministration. so i would say

that the military support is quite limited. a worker, i see scenes that, oh, we had the red line because of nato, because of american build up in ukraine. totally ally because the russian troops, i live inside ukraine, russia, you're buying you. so what is important definitely at this point is an increase of military support. first of all, and then 2nd point to one, russia, it bowed extension economic sanctions. now's the right norm extensions against russia. one is important east, one quote, that in case that it will have dramatic consequences for russia in economics for let's bring in pablo, fog and how a her in moscow, where's the writ? wiggle room. where's the negotiation room here? if president biden does follow up on his comment,

that he will speak to both the leaders of here, of, and a moscow in order to try and de escalate the situation. what's he going to go in and negotiate? well, yes, this is somewhat being prepared right now. both washington and moscow, whitehouse and the crime when they're working on the agenda, it should happen before year a year. it's going to be for sure it's going to be kind a be a screen and telephone conversation. but your grade is going to be very high on the agenda, but i'm to moscow hubs that brief and ship that being right now use a bossa, bo regional war with the threat of an escalation into all european are. i don't know global conflict that that will move the united states to change somewhat this position to put pressure on here to become more flexible and fall,

give russia water once on the so called agreements. so that's most likely right now, going to be the thing because there's a lot of talk of russian forces on the wonder if they are there for some i'm already, but the time of year right now is wrong for any kind of major military escalation. a winter campaign can begin 2nd half of january, but not earlier than that. so now is the time for negotiations, and apparently there will be happening. but how intense and how effective they're going to be. it's not clear. well, let's bring in a journal herbst her. i mean, i guess to moscow says the negotiations are not clear, but they do need to happen. what can the americans offer, and what would the russians take in order to de escalate? can i don't think, i don't think negotiations necessary at all. i think what's needed is a strong warning to put in,

but the nasty things happens is roneesh itself. and russia, if in fact proven escalators is our aggression against you crate. and again, talking about major sanctions, talking about military assistance to ukraine, is the way to go on the war and done boston when put in decides that it's no longer his of then negotiation, the import or the oceans are important right now. what's important right now is a strong stamp that becomes a basis for eventual negotiations. ready but they also needs to meet with bride in order not to escalate. that's fine. but what again, most important to prevent this from becoming a wider war, is a very strong warning to putin about the dangerous things that will happen. tim to russia, if he again escalates crush yet, but i only works if biden actually follows through. i mean, you're giving the javelin anti tank defense systems already. you've got billions of dollars worth of military aid going to the ukraine. all of those things. russia

says actually have escalated the situation, those need to be withdrawn, and then we might be able to talk. i mean, you got to follow it 3rd, right, right. but the spacing, what would, would you just the outline is i think puzzles logic. i was, logic is correct, that putative trying vibration ship to gain concession. why in the world we accept this? no, the, the, the, the situation around your pain is certainly dangerous and it become more dangerous . but it's not as dangerous as the berlin crisis in 1961 is human missile crisis 1900. 62. when, when kremlin brinkman ship, ah, brought the world to thermonuclear war, the threshold with them on the war. we are much stronger than russia today. all, there's no reason why we need to panic. so again, we, we produce a strong reaction, i think by just doing that. and then the russians want to talk, that's fine. but the most important thing is that strong reactions to put knows the consequences, the nasty consequences for his team. if in fact, he escalates alex,

hey, i'm gonna bring you in here in just a moment by do and a half from puzzle and moscow. what do you make of own john hubs? cummins most we hear from bradford and moscow different opinions coming out of washington and in the present situation, even from the bio ministration. but those of course there have been warnings, and there have been contacts. they'll be more likely, more in moscow also have different opinions there. those are the diplomatic, the foreign ministry defense ministry, kind of party of war guys who believe that now is a good time to make the have a final solution of the gradient problem. and there are those in with, in the president, booking surrounding to believe that that's a bad idea that russia will vary. b c come under very serious economic financial

sanctions. and that's not good. that's bad for internally and externally and put in as a time balance in these different opinions. and he has the final solution. last spring, a really big rush and contingent. i mean, hundreds of thousands of were mobilized and the concentration of forces in the black sea and the only premium border was much higher than today. but we didn't give the go ahead and we don't have a war in 21. we won't happen. so it's possible that when you come to the brink and be treat from it, but more consolidating message coming from washington would be better than it is hearing. different kinds of voices, like say, america, if it was up to john hubs, would definitely have your back. do you believe that president joe biden is go,

has the ukraine's best interest at heart? you think he's your guy? look, every kind of day is that? well, what a scene by the nose you can very well when he was vice president obama's administration, he was actually responsible for relations with was ukraine, and he knows ukraine very well in those forms across in the ukraine. so he understands secret, i would say. so what we need also to understand is that basically we look, this is politics, you know, and we don't know what exactly who to do as bottle said. so putting may be only just, you know, increasing stakes in a gamble, but what he would like to receive, he is then he will decrease the state and he would like to receive something in exchange. that's the whole idea. that's what happened in spring 2002 springs this

year because i believe why put in increased tension is to push through non stream to. so basically he paid a large armament to build up and support the only claim that he was drawn. you said ok, you see, i'm not going to war less push for north street instead. ok, so that's what to tim, would like to have, i guess i hope the president biden and his administration won't z do understand will put in one's own. they will bet you great look points and will be watching announce piece with ukraine. if you grant could be too late. if you train accepts, put in terms of piece of book and said ok, i'm fine with. so the problem is if i, united states and europe seem to not sacrifice ukrainian national in that simple

john hubs, when is nato in all of this? oh nato i think is playing a, an important role in the current crisis on when you seen an increase in nato ships in the black sea, all was a way of single single to moscow. oh, so it clearly has role. ready but i think you see an even greater role played by individual nato countries. started with united states, but also canada, the you, k and poland in the golden rule. all understand very clear fashion. the threat of what mr. booth is up to. one of the cranes borders one final comment, then from pavel fog and how you've heard what john has to say about nato's role? surely that's the one thing that really does anger. vladimir putin, him behind a lot of what is going on right now? actually. all the extension of major is in the altima right for

quite some years already. and that's the backbone. now, put in foreign policy to resist the nato extension. and, but it's not only, of course, thank your face weakness, not a member of nato, but it's right now providing help and training a help to your the gradient. so it's not even more than later. it's kind of a list i to try and balance the russian pressure on your grade. this is what i'm really afraid. i would say, if the troops begin to mo, somewhere, january go, begin to actually go with you moving. actually, troops from european countries, from america, actually to romania and poland. russia begins moving troops. if we go on to that stage or a confrontation, it will be very hard. i want to thank all, i guess,

alexey her and john herbs, the and apollo fall going to hell. and i want to thank you guys as well for watching. now you can see the program again any time by visiting our website out there, dot com. and for further discussion goes, will facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter or handle his at ha, inside story for me around on, on the whole team head bye for now. ah and

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