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ethnic somalis have long been the target of intimidation and persecution. in kenya, almost every woman was it. mohammed a down travels through his homeland to reveal of his people and family have been subjected to years of brutal discrimination. just typical the way. ready we are treated in a come to a colo al jazeera, corresponding what is the nuclear future hold for iran. president abraham macy marks 100 days in office by warning that the lifting of international sanctions is non negotiable. he's also promising to tackle around long running economic problems of both ames achievable. and will he be forced to make some confessions? this is inside story. ah .

hello, welcome to the program. i'm kim vanelle. after 9 months and 7 rounds of talks, negotiations to limit around nuclear program and exchange for sanctions relief seemed to be heading toward a standstill. leaders of the new iranian administration resumed talks with the signatories of the 2015 nuclear deal in viet last week. but they ended without progress to ron wants to renegotiate some aspects of the agreement and also wants reassurances that the us won't repeat. donald trump's pull out of 3 years ago, the united states estate says thereon isn't serious about returning to nuclear compliance. as a new draft deal near completion, european negotiate is accused the irradiance of taking a step backwards in a televised address on sunday, marking 100 days in office or on the president said the lifting of sanctions is non negotiable. if talks are to continue. yet one saw so the attack, the wall, we stated 2 things from the beginning. one is to neutralize the sanctions and then

to lift the sanctions. they would think that we were not going to take part in the negotiations because we have nothing to say. but the world was convinced that iran actually did participate very actively. and with those doroty when it comes to j. c . p ally. but when it comes to the lifting of sanctions, we were pursuing this. and we want to make sure these 2 things happen on the or the, let's talk about, let's bring in, i guess, hammered miss avi. is professor of political science at the university of ron. he joined us by scott from the iranian capital. so here, shaw is a nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament analyst. he joined us by scholar from london and also on scott. but from washington d. c is jamal r b. he is president of the national iranian american council. a very warm welcome to you all. thank you for joining us here on inside story. i'd love to begin with you jamal of the in his speech, president tracy said that his country, what we'll do, whatever it takes to have the sanction lifted. how flexible is he likely to be to

have that aim achieved? this is the big question. because for the iranians, there's a little guarantee that the united states will actually stay in the deal. and that if a new president comes in in 2025, won't care the deal up. so for the iranians at this point, unless there is movement on the us side and the, and the p 5 side really we're looking for the iranians to be flexible because there's not a lot of flexibility on the us side. the us is essentially saying, and this is accurate, you know, there's not a lot of political space in the united states for a new deal. if there is a new deal, it needs to go through congress. and so i think right now the impasse is largely over the fact that you know, the us saying to the wrong to come into a deal, hopefully benefit from 3 years of sanctions relief. but it's very unclear if you are, if you run is going to see the full scope of that sanctions relief. and so the world's asking iran to accept something less while taking the same steps on raining and

it's nuclear program. and i don't know what the racy team, what they really arrived at. do they really feel that it is necessary to get this deal? or are they going to be able to neutralize sanctions through other means as they have been doing for the past 3 years? we will talk about that a little bit later in the program for now, but for new and have shall. once you take what concessions do you think iran on the president right, you see, would be willing to make in order to get this deal done, will be done as it was. thank you. thank you so much for having me. i think that there runs public rhetoric and initial positions are unlikely to be its bottom line, but they are going to really push for trying to get the most that they can out of the current deal that we have. and under the current deal, we want to make sure that iran is able to see the economic benefits that it was always meant to see. iran's experience during the obama years was not all that great. obviously it was even worse during the trump years because of the reem

position of secondary sanctions. so now a lot has been learned and it is very clear that for there to be adequate foreign direct investment and trade, that iran has to make sure that there are certain assurances put in place so that companies and banks and others that need to facilitate such trade in investment can actually do so, and that, that is sustained into the future in terms of what concessions iran is going to make an exchange. i think iran has made very clear that they're willing to go under their full nuclear commitment as written out in the j p. p. away. the problem is, is that they only are going to do that if they can make sure that the deal is the win win deal. that it was meant to be other to bring us home and massage. according to some reports around chief negotiator, not only wants the us to lift all sanctions 1st before it returns to full compliance, but also want some sanctions lifted off sanction lifted that are unrelated to trans

nuclear activities. is that your understanding? absolutely. i mean, that's something that the uranium supreme leader i to law how many actually outlined a few months ago the wrong position is from the uranium perspective. it doesn't really matter what the sanctions are labeled has. i mean, they could be labeled as sanctions for terrorism or human rights, etc, but the ultimate effect on the uranium the economy is the same in, from your own perspective, all of the trump, you are a sanctions, we're actually place. so that a, d, j. c, p, o, a would die, and we're, we're actually very near that stage right now. so if the u. s. actually there are some sanctions, but other sanctions remain, then the effect on the uranian economy will be minimal. and i don't think that the position, the uranium government will accept the 2nd issue regarding having guarantees that the u. s. will not withdraw again. it's also important. i mean, just

a few days ago, the former french ambassador to washington a tweeted that no western company or bank would jared to invest in iran when there's a threat that the republicans would withdraw in 2025. so i think that's also a very important red line for you on jamal on the is that something the u. s. can even do, could be us even make that assurance that future administrations weren't again pull out of this deal? no, the us would not be able to do that, even if the president biden took the deal to congress, which he has to do in any circumstance. there's a new deal, the state of the congress. but some of his critics here in washington say, take it through congress as a treaty, not just through the, the process. it's already been established for nuclear agreements with iran. but even if it's a treaty, we saw president trump tear up several trees as well. so there's not a lot the president can do to constrain

a future president what the president can do. i think what, what the vine teams philosophy was was that if you get a deal and then you build this longer and stronger deal than you've set up, a stronger sort of diplomatic agreement that would be more difficult to tear up. and you have more political support here in the united states. i think that's maybe a little far fetched at this point. but the other thing the president can do, the president has almost unlimited authority to suspend the sanction. so on the question of what the president can do here, and now what the president can do to make sure that over the next several years, at least, iran does receive before promised benefit that's articulated and j p a, which is pretty broad and there's a lot of room within the g p a to interpret what that means in terms of responsibilities to ensure you aren't getting that stations really the president has, has the ability to do that. so if you're talking about the here and now there's a lot of options for the united states, we're talking about a future administration. i think that really is

a matter of aligning things politically in the united states so that there are barriers to a future administration tearing up a deal. sahara shaw, i found like a lot of what everyone is saying is quite pessimistic about the outcome of these talks. but the radian negotiate is, have reportedly sort of left the door open after putting for their own drafts, also suggested the europeans could do the same. so is that not a good sign at least? well, i think it's great that the new administration in iran has come together and put together what they would like to see. however, of course, it has been reported that the european, the americans and also the russians, and the chinese were a bit shocked by the initial opening position. and as i said earlier, it's probably not the bottom line, but i think that what we need to do is shift the conversation a bit from political and legal guarantees to more technical one than in the last few weeks relief the paper at the europe leadership network. and the board some bizarre foundation which has received a lot of pick up in iran actually there was

a response in the government daily, the iran newspaper today on the front page on there. and we basically talk about how we need to focus on the technical. so if in fact, the main benefits the iran is meant to get our economic from this deal, then we need to see how these countries can create if we come together and devise projects whose implementation would mean that everybody has more skin in the game. the legal guarantees are impossible, as germonti said, and the political guarantees are insufficient because even if biden committed politically to doing something that doesn't mean that future presidents will be committed in the same way. so by focusing on more creative solutions in the economic sphere, we hope that we can kind of push this dialogue from gridlock to one that is more creative and opportune for pushing this over the edge in terms of iran, other positions, you know, it's very difficult to say because everybody's being quite tight lipped,

but i would assume that iran is not going to really want to talk about their nuclear obligations until they get a very clear idea of what they are able to be delivered in terms of sanctions relief. and iran is doing this in a way to try to flip the original negotiations, which had started with long talks over their nuclear restrictions. and then was followed by the sanctions relief. but because things have been slipped on its head upside down because of donald trump's violation and withdrawal of the deal. iran is trying to rebalance it and rebalance be void of trust that that created. ok. i want to get onto the issue of trust in a moment. but before we move on from you, mr. shaw, seen this is your spare being a you can on for the fraction disarmament analyst, there has been a lot of talk about this idea. not the idea but a breakout time, basically the amount of time. but it would take iran to be able to move into actually having nuclear capabilities. is that still something that is being

discussed in negotiating circles or is that an idea which is now being put to the side? it's definitely being discussed in negotiating circles. i think breakout time, you know, as a metric is very questionable, because essentially what breakout time is is to have one single quantity of material that would be able to then if weaponized create a nuclear weapon. and of course, one nuclear weapon is not a nuclear weapons program. so obviously it is, it is not always seen as being the best metric, but it is the metric that is often used by government. and at the moment, the breakout time has indeed decreased to a point where everyone is getting quite nervous. however, of course, because of the robust monitoring and inspections for that the i. e. a, it's still managing somehow to continue, even though certain parts of it have been suspended. we would be able to know if that is happening. if iran decides to go for nuclear weapons,

we would absolutely be able to see that because it's very difficult to duplicate the entire process it would take and then make it covert when we have so much information on the ground at the moment. a log in to the, to the j. c. p. o, a. okay, $100.00 was of a, we talked about the technicals, but there is also the very core issue of trust isn't there? does iran trust the west as a negotiating partner? obviously donald trump pulled out that's going to take a lot of the trust away, but as it stands now, do you think around trust the american negotiating team? well, 1st of all, i'd like to comment on the issue of breakout time. now when we're talking about a breakout time, we're actually talking about a hypothetical scenario. i think if you're on actually wanted a nuclear weapon, they would already have one by now. so it's mostly a political decision. i never thought that when we're talking about a breakout, i think this is mostly the narrative of the israelis which are actually against the

deal. they've been saying that you on is 6 months to a year away from a nuclear weapons since the 1990s. and this has been well documented. so i think the breakout time is something about a hypothetical scenario. there's actually no evidence that he won his trying to build a nuclear weapon. actually, us intelligence agencies have set that you on has not pursued a nuclear weapon after 2003. now regarding the issue of trust, we have to remember that when in 2018, donald trump withdrew from the agreement or the europeans assured you on the wrong economy would be protected. the sanctions would not be implemented. and for a whole year, actually you're on for the obligated by it side of the deal. nevertheless, the europeans were either unwilling or unsuccessful to block any of the sanctions. so the result of that is that when the europeans or even the americans are talking

about a so called economic guarantees, there's really no trust into on regarding that because we've just had the experience regarding those guarantees in the past 3 years. also, when the biden administration came into power, there was a lot of discussion that they would show goodwill by lifting the some of the sanctions, at least humanitarian issues and sanctions that are affecting your on demand carrying crisis regarding corporate, etc, etc. they will those, and we actually saw nothing from the biden administration, and that was, i think, very disappointing. and i think it's our talks. alright, jamal, are they in his interview in his $100.00 days since taking office in to be president rice. he also said he will not link the country's economy to the results of the nuclear negotiations. what shape is the iranian economy in right now? can he realistically even do that? not link a future budget, not link the economy with what happens in vienna. that's what the running

says have done for the past several years now that donald trump exited the deal. and i, you know, i think the economic picture is, it's much more positive than i think a lot of people would have expected, given the extent of the us sanctions. and so we now know, you know, that the, the race administration, it's budget does not take into account any sanctions relief or that a nuclear agreement with united states is going to be struck. so they are you know, assuming i know deal scenario. and, you know, i think some analysts, you know, i'm not an economist, but some believe that iran maybe over estimating what is possible with the sanctions remaining in place may be taken for granted some of the ways that countries like china have been able to get around the sanctions more recently to

help improve raj economy. you know how much i want to i guess i have to tear ron. just someone who is living there knows what the prices of things are in his speech . present rice, he said himself that inflation high prices. these are the things, the big challenges for him. obviously he says, you know, he's listening to the people, the people want to be able to have better living conditions and be able to afford more things for daily life. so i guess i want to put that question to you, does the president have at his disposal the ability to strengthen the iranian economy without having the sanction lifted? i think it's going to be very difficult. i mean, the experience of the past 100 days has been raised. the government has had a lot of difficulties controlling inflation. even in the past few days, the uranian currency, the real has actually lost a little bit of its value because of the gloomy analysis regarding the outcome of the negotiations. i never thought this, i think at the same time,

the iranian government feels that it's, it really doesn't have a choice. i mean, if you want, we enters a bad fuel and it results in the us withdrawing again in a few years then that might actually have a bigger and negative impact on the uranium the economy than continuing with the status quo. so i think there's a very difficult path ahead, but the alternatives might actually be worse. tomorrow the us extra day and the blanket warned around that time is running out for negotiations, saying that if there is no result, the u. s. will piss you other options. what does that mean? what other options does it have? this is the big issue that i do not think has been properly evaluated because there's been a lot of talk about a plan b and israelis, urging the united states to move to a plan d. and yet, what time be actually entails, it's either really grave, you know, big things like disraeli, supposedly,

or encouraging united states to engage in military strikes against iranian target. not necessarily inside of iran, but in the region short of military action. there's been talk about an, a board of governor censure. i think that there's potentially, you know, in came planning this, i think you could, you could look at potentially a snap back of un sanctions. maybe other countries joining in on the sanctions. maybe. you know, the us taking a tougher line with china to try to close any loopholes, but these are all pretty small measures. and you have to remember that the united states is already engage in a maximum pressure campaign that the vital ministration inherited from trump. and so the ability to actually actually escalate that pressure is pretty limited because we are getting maximum pressure. so i think that plan be it quickly turns into either military strikes or some sanctions measures that don't really change

so hand shot. iran has been accused of trying to buy more time to continue its nuclear program. how much has around nuclear program actually advanced? let's say in the last 5 months since the last round of talks, i think that there definitely have been substantial advances made especially in the area of enrichment. the good thing though, however, is that we still have eyes in years on the ground to be able to assess the progress that they're making. and the main thing that is concerning to a lot of people while, you know, of course, the capabilities and the star pilots are important. those are things that can then be reversed and put under control. but the one thing that is bugging negotiators is the increased knowledge that iran has derived from being able to research and develop more advanced centrifuges, for example. so iran has progressed, but iran has progress because there hasn't been progress from the binding

administration in trying to creatively figure out how to get the deal back on track . so i think that, you know, overall it is definitely concerning. and i think that the europeans in particular, are not happy with how iran has utilized the past 5 months, because at the same time as doing consultations with them and others, they have indeed been ramping things up. however, this is indeed, i my opinion to try to gain leverage, you know, in the face of what jamal said, which is continued maximum pressure. we are seeing iran continue maximum resistance . and the only way that they can turn up the temperature at the moment. it seems is on the nuclear file because in the region, which is where they also would normally try to increase the temperature at the moment. there are budding regional security talks that iran is taking quite seriously. so i think that's why they're turning primarily to the nuclear file. now

we're going to talk about that. we're going to talk about the regional regional element. now, i'd like to come back to you how much more savvy there's a lot of activity happening in the region right now. the u. e. z. national security advisor has been meeting with president racy. syria's foreign minister has also been to to ron saudis, conference visiting mon, he's got a whole regional turkeys president and katara. what kind of discussions will be being had right now behind closed doors about the new can negotiations and is there any outside influence that might impact to ron's decision making? i don't think we don't. countries will be able to really influence your decision making process. i think iran feels very comfortable right now regarding its regional influence and power at the very fact that the u. a. e and the saudis are negotiating with you on even though you go shaking with the americans, is not going well from. the iranian perspective actually shows, perhaps uranian power in iranian info and so on that front are actually you on is

actually in a pretty comfortable situation. and i think that partly goes back to the fact that you're on believes that the americans, unlike that rhetoric, where they keep saying we have a plan b, which might consist of us for these re, these attacking your on. i think you're on believes that the americans do not really have a credible military option. you have to remember that even donald trump will had a much harsher rhetoric. never actually talk to you on i don't think the americans want a major war in the middle east. they're actually retreating from the middle east. and i think that works. we want benefit. all right, we're coming up to the end of time. i'd like to come back to you, jamal of the how do you see things playing out in the next week? i believe talks are meant to review later this week or potentially going into the weekend. do you think we're going to see much more movement? my hope is that this was an opening gambit by the rate raised administration,

that the line that they have taken on the sanctions is going to soften. and i, and i do think ultimately it's going to be, i'm header of is the wrong going to show the, the flexibility that the united states is unable to show my expectation. i do think that the iranians do want to deal and hopefully understand that, you know, while it may not be fair, it is actually a better situation for iran. it's, it's a better situation for everybody involved. and so hopefully the parties will understand that there are no plan b 's. this is it, this is getting a deal getting a diplomatic agreement, but we will see in the next, in the next week or so whether or not the parties want to go a different way. and you know, i just think that the options are pretty bad for everybody outside of that sheet, or i'd have to leave it there for time. thank you very much to, i guess jamal of the 100 most are the and so he'll shop and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and to further discussion,

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