that athletes from all formations will still be able to attend and compete in the game as a country, indeed, as many partners around the world, we were extremely concerned by the repeated human rights violations by the chinese government. that is why we are announcing today that we will not be sending any diplomatic representation to the beijing olympic paralympic games this winter. our athletes have been training for years and are looking forward to compete the highest level against athletes from around the world. and they will continue to have all of our fullest support. ah, hello, this is al jazeera, amazing. some of the stories were following the solemn burdens prime minister has announced to attend to tidy corona virus restrictions to stem the spread of the omi

cron variant far as johnson is urging people in england to work from home and his mandating cause of 19 passes for entrance into public venues. the announcement comes hours after he was forced to apologize for a video showing his staff, joking about holding a christmas party during last year's lockdown. i think i overwhelmingly, the, the public see the importance of the, the messages that they are getting via this medium. it is imperfect. we do what we can to explain what we think is, is necessary. i know it's contentious. i know it's difficult and i know that sometimes the, the messages are confusing. we do our absolute best to make it as, as clear as possible. and we do everything that we can to protect public health. that's what we're we're, we're driven by him and prime minister has apologized for going to a club after one of her close contacts his positive coded phenom,

marin went on and i am just ours on foreign minister confirmed a positive test. marin says a text message advising her to live with center her work phone which she left at home became foster. as president rocha bora has dismissed the prime minister and government. it follows a wave of protests last month arising in security in the country. the us president says, sending troops to defend ukraine from russia is not on the cards. let me put in, and joe biden spoke virtually on tuesday as concerns mount moscow's troop build up on the border with ukraine. the u. s. warned moscow would face severe sanctions if in veins the highest ranking military official in india is among at least 13 killed in a helicopter crash. the aircraft came down in the southern states. if time matter. those are the headlines. i'm emily angland state change now for inside story.

ah ah, do not invade ukraine. the u. s. president has warned of russia and threatened further sanctions. the co biden's virtual summit was let in it put in ended without a breakthrough. so did it do enough to prevent a new conflict in europe. this is inside stored. ah,

hello and welcome to the program and has them seek a fierce are growing of a possible russian invasion of ukraine. tens of thousands of its soldiers have amassed along ukraine's border along with russian military hardware. u. s. intelligence agency say a multi front offensive could happen early next year. on tuesday, president joe biden used a virtual meeting with russian president vladimir putin to issue a warning. pardon threatened more economic sanctions if russia were to invade? putin called nato's presence in ukraine, a red line which threatened russia security. he asked for guarantees of no further nato expansion. eastwood will bring in our guests in a moment. but 1st, this report from our white house correspondent, kimberly ha, with a massive build up of russian troops, new ukraine, shared border, and u. s. intelligence indicating an invasion of ukraine could happen early next year. u. s. president biden met virtually with russian president vladimir poo. good to

see you again. the pair spoke for 2 hours. who denies russia intends to invade ukraine, calling it fear mongering. but the u. s. president made clear today that if russia did tough economic sanctions would follow. i will look in the eye and tell you as president biden looked, president putin in the eye and told him today that things we did not do in 2014. we are prepared to do now. that reference is to the russian annexation of crimea from ukraine. that prompted us sanctions biden also told putin the u. s. was prepared to assessors militarily. we would provide additional defensive material to the ukrainians above and beyond that, which we are already provided. and we would fortify our nato allies on the eastern flank for its part. russia is seeking assurances from the west that ukraine will not become a member of the north atlantic treaty organization, something the ukrainians have pursued for years. the us national security advisor

reiterated ukraine can associate with whom ever it watts, but one analyst believes, joining nato is unrealistic. it ought to be clearer to them that we're not coming to the rescue. so you get to have to livid nash russian, or you are security guarantee. there were also questions about the controversial nord stream to pipeline which runs from germany to russia and whether it could be used as leverage and discussions over ukraine. the white house says it will pressure the german government to stop it. if russia invades the biden administration, will continue to work with it's european partners, promising a coordinated response. should russia ignore their warnings? precedent bite, and we'll also speak with ukraine's president lensky on thursday. kimberly, how can al jazeera, the white house, the let's bring in our guests now to talk more about this in

bel grade. we have victor olive, which lead experts at the center of actual politics in silver spring, maryland, melinda harring, deputy director at the atlantic councils eurasia center. and joining us from kia, lexi, her and professor of comparative politics at key of marya academy, a warm welcome to each of you. so, melinda has, let me start with you, then no breakthroughs from this virtual meeting. but cards were laid out on the table from both sides or would like that's right. i think the word i would use is impasse. some analysts are saying that that the crisis has been resolved temporarily. i think that's flat out wrong when you read the statements, when you parse the statements from the white house and from the kremlin, you could very different of portraits of what happened yesterday. we know the president biden did 3 things. he said that the u. s. would impose strong economic

measures in tandem with its allies. if russia were to invade ukraine, the u. s. would send more defensive material and the u. s. would fortify nato allies on the eastern flank. it also looks like the u. s. will joined the minsk agreements. these are the stalled peace accords. the u. s. has not been party to these agreements, and i think russia hadn't really wants the u. s. to join in. it would be an opportunity to revitalize these discussions. but when you read the statements, but moscow and the united states want very different things that the point that jumps out me to me the most is that moscow is, is saying they're, they're engaging in what about is them? they're blaming nato, and they're blaming key of for the aggression. they're not taking responsibility. this crisis is far from being result. victor, a leverage in belgrade. i'm sure you want to respond to some of that, but i want to ask you as well. russia has said that these fears about a russian invasion are unfounded. if that's the case, what a president puts his intentions over ukraine and what's behind the,

the troop build up near its border with ukraine? well, a massive full scale invasion of ukraine is simply not in russia's national interests . festival. russia does not really have the resources to maintain massive swats of the 3 and the people in ukraine for a long period of time. secondly, russia is really not interested in massive new political and economic sanctions levied against it by the united states, by americans, trans atlantic allies and other partners around the world. the russia economy is not in great shape as it is in you. economic threat over that magnitude is simply not i would repeat, not in a rush is national interest. thirdly, online crimea, which has a predominantly ethnically russian population and where people are really wearing

support. they were supportive of russia all along on like crimea. most the other theories of ukraine are not as enthusiastic about the, about the russian states. so russia would find more opposition there to its presence. all that being said, the kremlin, understands that for well what moscow is really concerned about is the increase in western military presence in ukraine inc, and increase in military cooperation between ukraine and the united states. on one hand and ukraine and europe and capital. some of the other can it is all mosque was also concerned about the use of a new military systems and technologists such as the by iraq are the ones that have been in use in ukraine in recent months. russia is also

concerned that its policy at doors ukraine designed to get green one form or another back into russia. your interest has not been working so by making these tough moves and by tougher than got its rhetoric. moscow is trying to squeeze out concessions from the west, especially from the bite of whitehouse it. it is hoping that the bite in the white house will, will give in at least on some points. moscow understands full well that nobody is going to give it the written guarantee is that known, you might need, the members are going to be accepted. but russia, at least once some concessions as far as military the construction, the possible construction of military bases, american, british, or others on the territory of ukraine. russia is that as a red line, russia would like to limit the military cooperation between ukraine and its western

partners as a whole. all right, we can get into some of that a little bit later, but i want to get a ukrainian perspective on this. now this summit was generally seen as, as constructive by the united states and russia. ultimately, nothing was resolved, and ukraine's fate still hangs in the balance elects they had. and how are they likely to view this in here? well, i think 1st of all, oh, there was a strong statement from the u. s. president, and this is a very, very important president. and he's the advisors. they said about potential and not only so also suggest is talking in general, you know, the u. s. a 's they are seeing now, to guess it would be increased economic sanctions against russia. and this is very, very important. and for me to put you in all this talk. so basically that's what

you would like to hear because we're really afraid of russian aggression. again, i would like to remind you to your viewers in 2014, nobody expected to rational dec because ukraine and time was known. alley state. and so we were hoping it would never match a next crania of war in don't boss. and then actually, and that's a sort of see, so here while it's a free the vacation, so nobody expected the porch and we'll send troops, great regular troops. but it happens. it happened without any late involved. so we'll do that later. basically, you throw, you create. so that's why i would definitely weak affairs and i would like to stress one again, this fall in love with all natal soldiers?

no, they don't the styles. so basically there's no threat to rush, but jim is trying to undermine ukraine to death. belies ukraine to split ukraine to split a p and alice prose. busy the united states and that's what we are able so we hope it won't happen and basically, um, basically bye bye. send a good signal up. belinda herring. it was mentioned therein in, in our pulse report from kimberly, how can about economic sanctions? you mentioned some of that as well. one of the things that was mentioned was this nord stream to pipeline that's running between russia and germany and that could be used as leverage the object sullivan. the u. s. national security advisor certainly made mention of that. he said is, it's leverage for the west, because if let me put in, wants to see gas flow through that pipeline. he may not want to take the risk of

invading ukraine if things were to come to that they'd been altering to pipeline would be suspended, wouldn't what, what i mean is that something that's obviously worked into the u. s. calculations on this has an it's and just respond to that you can yes, sure, absolutely. nurturing to is definitely on the table. there's a couple, a couple of different options. when you read the sullivan statement, he refuses to go in to what was actually discussed. but we, we know that, that the germans will cancel nordstrom to if, if russia does invade of the stephen the, came out, was very interesting. i, it says over and over again that the u. s. and its allies are willing to consider options that they have not considered before. so that probably means sanctions against big russians, state banks, and investment agencies. it probably means a broadening of sanctions to maybe potentially areas like mining metals and shipping and state own companies could be in there. and then it could possibly mean

using a cutting off access to the swift banking system. and that's sort of the nuclear auction nurturing to though is, is a big deal. and it's, it's one odd that that was definitely discussed yesterday. according to the ukrainians. there are 94300 russian troops near ukraine's border in there in the northeast. they're in the east and they're in crimea, and we saw on friday, us intelligence declassified some estimates the end. and we think the u. s. government thinks that russia will increase if true, it's true numbers to a $175000.00. and that it invasion could come as likely as january 2020. i disagree with with victor. victor made a quite a powerful case that, that invading ukraine is not in russia's national interest. well, i think that there's a case to be made that, that it's serious. this time, victor victor's right. we don't know if putin has made up his mind. this may be an elaborate ruse. he may be putting huge pressure on ukraine in the united states to

given at the negotiating table. that's entirely possible. but vladimir putin may be thinking about this decision in a different way. he may decide that the benefits outweigh the costs and he may invade. and this time, if he does, it will be different than it was in 2014. in 2015, he would use in soldiers, they would be in russian regalia and he'd use the russian air force. so i see for reasons why put might go in 1st is that putin is an aging autocrat. and he's thinking about his legacy and seizing ukraine. could bolster is image is a great leader when you look at the rhetoric coming out of the kremlin, they're talking about stolen, yvonne, the great, that's how he thinks of himself, and he end to be a great russian leader means to take, i take territory. second, i think looks at the map of the world and he sees an opportunity. 2021 was a really good year for him. gas prices are up. there's no one to stop him. he sees

weakness everywhere, and this is his chance to take you crazy wants to let's, let's put, let's put some of that back to, to victor than in belgrade. i mean, puts in his might no secret of the fact hasn't a, that he's always seen on this as a historical wrong that ukraine became an independent states a back in 1991 with the, with the collapse of the, of the soviet union. and that's ukraine. must be in his mind if not part of the russian state, then part of russians sphere of influence. and the, and this is, this is and manufactured crisis that has been entirely engineered by vladimir putin . what do you say to that? well, put in may believe that, but we have him throughout the last 2 decades of his rule. russia has not been able to change the cal kilo's, the political calculus, the j political balance in the ukraine in its favor. so in 2000 and just just

a brief go back to the history of 2004. the 1st. 1 ukranian might done when russia was interested in one outcome and western states were interested in an other outcome of the election of the presidential elections of that time. and russia was unable to sustain. it's to get it scheduled that elected you shaneka, who was a pro, what more pro western candidates 110 years later. so 10 russia at 10 years to do something about that situation. and yet in 2014, when a new crisis emerged with western powers being on one side of the equation, the russian on the other russia, again last ukraine. and it was in the reaction to the loss of the reaction to the, to the depot. the fact of the quote which was ukranian president,

that time being deposed and replaced by a more pro western government was a response to that, that russia in next crimea. because russia in a way justifiably believed that had it not taken those steps in crimea. the bless you fleet, that is so central and so strategic to russia is military plans in the black sea area would have been asked to leave. and then russia fear that the western leave is, will be invited into to be waste there. so for russia, it was away knowing that it kept last ukraine in 2014. and it was a way to at least save crimea as a host of its black c fleet. and also to save faith in moscow itself because had russia abandoned crimea, it would have, she has domestic full out, both among putting loyalists in russia and in russia's,

in russia's military ranks of which you see me as a strategic football outpost. so after that, after 20147 years have passed, and the russia, despite all of its efforts, has not been able to change the calculus, changed the equation in its favor and ukraine. ukraine is getting closer and closer to the west. so these acts like what we saw in april, which was a similar situation when the western western intelligence sources reported that russian troops were amassing along you crazy borders were sounding alarm bell alarms and nothing happened after that. geneva. so after the geneva talks between biden puts in, in switzerland. all right, so let's. 1 get which in is using these pressure points to, to get some concessions is not interested in a full scale war in ukraine, which will be catastrophic for rush. let's put some of that to national ukraine.

why? because which is decked neutral. you create before 2014 majority of ukrainians believed in our french friendship and partnership with russia. supporters of natal, when, when would you decide to annex crania? that's what happened basically if people do compared to what saddam hussein saddam hussein said kuwait is ours. who chill is saying was saying, you know, cream? yes. our so i have a next, by the way, despite the fact that he's a creamier, is there at the cranium. don't ask well, natives muslim natives to korea, but their views were totally ignored by by russia. so yes. as a result of rushes, actions. who till last you claim that's true. what we are afraid off now is not on the large military offense. we also have free over so called limited

military offense because which and may try to cease one or 2 strategically important c. eastern you crate. like she did in february 2015 when, despite the cease fire, despite all the promises which russia di to invest and partners, russia can i, you know, if i could do a regular and see if i could just jump in here for a moment, alexi if, if, what, what kind of assistance would you be wanting from, from the united states and the west if it's not in the form of, i mean, if, if russia were to invade ukraine, if you believe if it's not in a form of direct military assistance in the form of troops, because ukraine is not a nato man, but what, what other assistance would you expect? well, i seen that you cannot make sense to increase the economic sanctions. we should be

apply not only in case of large military offense, but also you would, you would stop a limited military offense. they should also be apply and we need defensive weapons. we need defensive veterans. so, and also to reforms the ukranian army. so that's important. it's a long time strategy for us. yes, we understand that natalie is not going to fight for us, but support those amendments to increase economic suppliers. armaments increased economic sanctions. that would be good, very important. and final, i would like to stress again, there is no freedom of navigation. ukrainian ships cannot move to the us or sea, which is sure, see with russia as it is a rational you, graham printed on it, but the russian way a late as well. so you, graham sheep, they may not m a c, you know, so i think it should be on blocked as well. all right,

melinda. so if i come back to you on this, yes, i, this is cathy. i agree with the lexi, but that's not strong enough. i, i don't think that the package that president biden laid out yesterday, you know, we were not privy to all the details, but the details were privy to. i don't think that's enough to deter putin. i don't see why the united states isn't fortifying nato allies on the eastern flank right now. there's no reason why we shouldn't be doing that. i think the united states it of it yesterday. sullivan said that we have a pipeline to the ukrainians and we're sending. we're sending weapons through that pipeline fabulous. but if these estimates are right, and the russians are considering an invasion of partial invasion or full invasion in january, february, once the weather permits it, once tanks can move more freely, we got to get stuff there now and getting a big weapon, expensive weapon systems that are there now is difficult, there's a military theorists. his name is dr. t. x ham's. and he has some very interesting

ideas. he says that ukraine should be using autonomy drone storms. it should be thinking about ideas and minds and lining that the northern border to prevent it evasion and make it as difficult for russia as possible. and getting ready for a guerrilla warfare. he has a very interesting article on, on the lena council website that i would commend to your readers. all right, um, before we go, i think we got about a minute or so a left and i'll give will. what's probably going to be the last word on this to you, victor lay rich in belgrade. well, look, ah, the situation in the full ones were in 1000 in the early 1000 ages, is very well known around the world, including in russia. when you go here, you who, when admiral american, tina was the cat, divergent military dictated urgency in that time decided to wait the full balance in the hopes of reason, his ratings in his full engravings in argentina. the result was that was not only

the collapse essential collapse of the invasion of full glance, but also here is full in argentina. that is also is well known in russia to brush understands that nate, though the united states and the sellers are not going to go have to care with russian forces in ukraine. but it also understands that the economic damage that new political and economic sanctions, massive sanctions, europe by the united states, while they are part, would be a subject for russia that we're going to happen to have and leave it there. thanks very much to all 3 of you were out of time. good to have you all with us. victor leverage melinda herring and alexi hard on thanks so much for being on inside story . i think he was always watching from you can see the program again. any time just go to our website as a dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. there is at

a j inside story for me hasn't speaker. and the whole team here by the i was full time funnel fled full and so silent and no eli assistance was so scared of being sent back that they disappeared. we've been found a little boy hunted gate. mon

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