silver and bronze roman coins, as well as figurines, pottery vessels and iron work. at the time the ships went down, the area was known as caesar ear. it's here that the acts of the apostles described, peter baptizing the roman centurion, cornelius in an area that was one of the earliest centers of christianity. bernard smith al jazeera. ah, what you deserve me said rob a reminder of our top stories. more than 13000000 people have been ordered to stay at home in the eastern chinese city of shan. 200 cove at 19 infections have been recorded since the beginning of the month. china is on high alert as it goes up to host the winter olympics in february. katrina, you has more beijing, the latest count we have now over 200 cases reported and she and in this outbreak has spread to at least 5 other cities. and there have been at least one infection

noted in beijing. so from thursday midnight authorities have said that the city of $13000000.00 people will be under strict lockdown. and only one member of the household is allowed to leave the her every 2 days to collect groceries on the certified essential workers will be allowed to go to work. schools has been closed for some days now. entertain, then, use, have been closed, long distance transport that buses, trains flights have all been canceled. the city is currently conducting mass testing authority, say the already up to the 3rd round of mass testing. the u. k. has reported more than a $100000.00 daily current virus infections for the 1st time, scotland and wales of tightened restrictions. the u. k. prime minister. both johnson is chose not to impose similar measures in england. south africa has approve booster shots of johnson and johnson's crew of iris vaccine. it's one of the most widely used across africa because it's a single dose chart and doesn't need to be kept in ultra cold storage. recent data

address, the micro outbreak in south africa may have peaked about a month after it was detected by president vladimir putin says he hopes russia will achieve collective cove at 1900 immunity. next year. houston urge citizens to get an ocoee later during his annual end of year press conference. hong kong university has removed his don't g, commemorating the victims of the 1989 tenement square massacre, which is highly centered in china. the university says the decision was based on legal advice. the move has drawn criticism from activists and rights groups. the death toll from major flooding in malaysia has risen to at least 37. the floods triggered by days of heavy rain have also displaced nearly 70000 people. those were the headlines, more news and half now with emily, next steps inside story to stay with me. ah,

ah, ah, ah, russia will respond appropriately to any western aggression. thus, the warning for president vladimir putin as tensions wise over ukraine, who one security guarantees from the west as he masses, his troops on the border. but will he get them? does diplomacy stand a chance? this is inside story? ah . hello and welcome to the program. i'm hashem, abala. the 4th lines between russia and the west regarding ukraine are getting deeper, and both sides are refusing to back down. on tuesday rush as president vladimir

putin ward of an appropriate response or less europe and the last drop, their aggressive fostering. the kremlin, rejects accusations. it plans to invade the grain capital yet as early as next month. it wants ne, to, and the united states to reduce their presence in eastern europe. but europe says put ins, demands are impossible to keep. while washington is preparing to negotiate over his security concerns. would you put those in, in the event of the continuation of the obviously aggressive stance by our western colleagues, we will take appropriate retaliatory, military technical measures reacting firmly to unfriendly actions. and i would like to emphasize we have the right to do so. we have every right to act to ensure a rush of security and sovereignty. we have to see if the 1st is that there's any progress to diplomatically. we also want to see russia the escalate to move forces

back from the border with, with ukraine to take down the tension. ah, it's some much more appropriate of have a conversation in those circumstances than it is when an escalation is happening. obviously, one of the conditions lead to ours. my, a russia is to now that allow ukraine into nato, but ukraine's level a dimmer zalinski says there's the clear time frame for that. my browser more yet more, we are striving to unblock the peaceful settlement process and on bass line as quickly as possible to get crimea back to achieve you membership in the next few years. and to get a very clear time horizon from nato. very concrete, and we wanted in 2022 ah, littering in our gas in moscow. pavel belkin, how're military analyst. and carmen is foreign. a via gazette in berlin. fast them banner, co founder and director of the global public policy institute. washington

d. c. a. david, the roche professor at national defense university and former nato operations director, are the joint chief of staff. welcome to the program. pavel, can we some of this whole crisis now as for laws for moscow to deescalate all the border with ukraine? ne, to has to a war back from eastern europe more, i would say it's a bigger than just ukraine. right. ukraine? maybe it has been the focus point of the rush or western stand up with now it's kind of more and rush is talking about not just about your brain, but about the entire the of the russian border. you cri, you border between russia, nato and russia, wants to have a secure situation where there are no threatening western mo, trees, or weapons or anything and appearing there. and those that are there should be

withdrawn. and russia have a right to have a kind of veto on nato expansion or natal deployment, even in countries that are already became nate members after and $97.00. so it's more than you create. but your grain, of course, is the focus point that the sure thing fos, and you would expect also statements and narratives when it comes to conflicts such as the one we're dealing with. but when you, russian defense minister, so geisha go says that u. s. private, the emitter to companies are plotting provocation using unknown a chemical component. how do you see that statement under the background? well, i guess the backdrop of the conflict. this is just cynical propaganda to give a pretext for foreign invasion. this is by far the most dangerous situation, militarily we've seen in europe over the past 3 decades. are i agree

with the demetrius param, michener, founder of a silverado accelerator that are all signs point to put in actually preparing to launch an invasion with a technical and game off establishing a puppet state in houston, ukraine, and creating a language to crimea. but more so teaching and game and the russian colleague alluded to that to establish some sort of put in doctrine that no country of the former soviet union ever has. the idea of trying to join nato without fearing in bay invasion. and that seems to be the name of the game from the, from the crime than son, david, one of the arguments advanced by president putin is basically, it's about time for nature to stop those activities. deploying troops at the doorstep of russia. is it exactly the way he portrays the the situation or do you

think that one of the biggest concerns of russia is nature deploying tactical advance weapons, particularly besides into those areas widely seen by russia as a massive foot to its national security? well, you know, you've got start with the priest that you couldn't spoons operate from the precept that countries that were part. and so you know, or did the warsaw pact are not fully sovereign. and that russia, the soviet union, you know, has to do it. but i think really what you're seeing here is him chickens. the keys look um, you know, inflation in russia is 18 percent. 40 percent of russians have no savings at all on the north street to pipeline will not be approved. they don't do the best scenario until the summer, and basically they're looking at a long, cold, miserable winter with a lot of poor people. and i think he's basically just trying to change the narrative, you know, move to a war time economy, hopefully without war just to, to minimize this vulnerability. the rest of this is all smokescreen. pavel is

watched as biggest concern native deployment in the eastern part of europe. what is it? russia's obsession with this fear constant fee that ukraine and other countries on likely to further drift away from russia's fit of influence? whoa, russia believes that ukraine as well as there were rules, are part of the old great historical russia. and that they should not join western alliances because in the n, n a, the ship re unite with russia proper to a greater russia put, wrote about that. the simplest published this summer, and i know that not only put in but many in the russian ruling, we believe that this so, but there are also some kind of some very concrete security concerns. and by puts in personally, because it's an old idea from the,

from the time of the euro. miss, our crisis of the eighty's and american pershing to massage were deployed. and land based cruise missiles were deployed in europe. that the west, the united states are planning, decapitating, 1st blow to destroy the russian political, military leadership. and so that the russian military can be organ well organized for a reply attack. and that's what he was talking about of these minutes of how quickly the missiles can reach mars, who it means he's talking about himself that he may be taught. he's the main target, and that's what the russian general staff is telling, the grand one that put in is the main target. the americans want to kill him. and he know, and he believes that this so, and that's why he's reaction is very emotional. not just the smokescreen, he's really afraid that he's going to be targeted and killed in

a sudden american attack. also, another argument advanced by wash is basically and the expansion of nato east word is almost irrelevant because the political world or the now is completely different than before the end of the cold war. i don't know, i don't understand that argument. the expansion is not irrelevant at all. if anything is more pressing concern for the kremlin than ever as well as which just hurts those countries who had the luck of joining nato and enjoy article 5 guarantees. they can feel that they're protected by nato alliance. the problem and, and the main target is these in between states that are not part of, of nato or any western institution. now that russia and,

or the president putting, consider as part of the russian sphere of influence and where he and i don't think it's a smokescreen, the security concern in the kremlin, the very real, the, whatever the, from the proceeds to be a security threat is security you don't need to be hyper constructive as to, to see that. and they, they, at the very least if not for, you know, if not realizing these pen russian empire dreams, at least they want to buffer states. that they, that they defacto control. because the kremlin is indeed the afraid for security and also regime survival. imagine it's the bellows, ukraine, georgia, all these, all these countries turn into some sort of democracy that, that would also. busy also. busy be threatening from the vantage point of a corrupt regime in the kremlin. david, you served as dates as oppressions,

director john, chief of stuff. and you know, the russians have been thing a police as well as putting is concerned. there's always this post soviet mindset which is 1997. we were told let's in the, in the early ninety's, the russians were told to join the partnership for p packed. and then they were told, the troops would be remain stationed as their $997.00. but that was suddenly collapse, and the nature started to move forward and reaching out to different countries. this is a massive, massive security threat for the wash as wish they don't want to see a replicated anytime. so, and this explain that 0 tolerance as far as the queen is concerned. yeah, this is all hogwash. look, the regime threat that is concerned about is a color revolution. and the reason why it's done that is because he hasn't delivered anything for his people. nato expansion happens. you know, the,

the local assurances were made during the time of gorbachev. you know, to the soviet union where she suggests this the, the arrangement changed. and when nato expanded, it didn't expand with focus on russia. polish troops weren't arms to go to the polish border by the way, because i guess the united states withdrew every single tank from europe in 2014 and they remained withdrew. and joe couldn't. if they did the crime, what we've got here is there's not a legitimate natal threat. you know, there weren't even war plans to descend the baltic republic robbery year after their accession over a decade after their selection. this is hogwash. what you have here is a guy who has a marble domestic position because he's delivered nothing 1st people, other than this idea of return to the great wars of the soviet union. you know, a few weeks ago or a few days ago. so the russian hockey teen played in the old soviet union jerseys and finland they last. so i guess you took them back in 1940, but you know,

all the, somebody, the recession is just hogwash. traditionally what a country joyce, nato, their defense spending actually decreases. they actually spend less money on that, and i can tell you that, you know, i've never seen any contemplation offensive action only, you know, updating plans from the cold war. and the finally, we've got, bear in mind, russia occupies the big part of crimea, or a big part ukraine, that completely annex the crimea. this is not as if there's just something coming from the west. there's a 7 year war going on that was directed and bankrolled by russia and the fact that it's been unable to deal with a corrupt any country and 7 years that undermines as it is images a strong man to so now, okay, her time for him, detroit rattle some cages. however, why do you think the russia leadership put in, in particular, is insisting on the security guarantees to been mat before any death?

the escalation on the border with ukraine. it's a bigger picture than just the ukraine for russia about ukraine. russia right now is very adamant. no, there'll be no need go. accession fission to the european union, and russia do what it takes, no matter what to prevent that. but the picture of this is big, your rush is demanding. security guarantees the entire, the, the eastern franco from a go. and russia is demanding that right now very adamant we. why right now, the situation has come to the forefront? well, there's a, that's a very complicated report would be very complicated than long, or basically the russian military had plans and inactive more than 10 years ago to

build up the russian military or a possibility of the big war in europe in the 20s. so now, according to brand, russia is more or less ready, though, the kind of date of war was about $2425.00. but anyway, right now we're ready and that's what you know, he's general said yesterday this big beating in moscow. right now we're number one, we have hyper speed mess, south america does not. so right now, russia has an advantage in muslim, we should use that military advantage to get political concessions. ok, foss and how to explain the fact that the russians till what at least the, the top priority for them now is a ban on ukraine entering the nato. and we know that from 2014 nature has never shown any genuine appetite to have a you create a lot mean look what, what they've said,

i think from the credit matters point is exactly confirmation of their concerns and fears i agree with with dave on russia, violating international law and commitments under the budapest memorandum to retrain. that's all crystal clear. but to say that all these guarantees about the not expanding nato, they were given to the soviet union and all that sort of union cease to exist. so there were no longer valid that was totally fine to expand nato because it wasn't that all directed the ad, russia from the criminal matters point. that's exactly prove up the depletion. if a critical nature of. busy off the us and it's, it's nato allies, and they're very concerned about expanding nato, but they're even concerned about ukraine. mean, i think one thing the kremlin has learned over the past 2 years, a ukraine, that is not part of natal,

but still is able to purchase advance weapons from a partner. these drones they purchase from, from russia, is maybe even more unpredictable. and they simply don't trust the president lensky on, on the, on east and ukraine. they think he's out there to retake the territory. they want to preempt that i'm not at all justified as i'm but i think we do in the west need to understand the rationale of the kremlin for doing this. and i think it goes beyond just the diverting from the very dire economic and socio economic situation at home. this is not just the version tactic. i think this, this is going after some very real goals for the crevice. david, the, the, the, the whole narrative is widely seen as a favor backing just for the sake of political compromise in a, in

a time. so now from an american and european perspective, what do you, how do you see the compromise if it ever happens? yeah, it's really tough. i mean look, natal operates by consensus. so i cannot imagine is the situation in which was winning lakia, sonia and poland, all agree that there shall be no deployments in their territory. that's not going to happen. the intermediate nuclear arrange forces rushes movement, a screwdriver, missiles into europe. there probably will be some sort of a reaction to that. there's a possibly for a compromise there, but it won't be a compromise that allows russia to keep its intermediate nuclear missiles in place . the, the fact is the u. s. top producing those missile 30 years ago. so would take us a long time to match that other things that brushes down that test of the anti satellite muscle. ready weapon the hypersonic missiles. ready as i mentioned earlier, those are all technological things and eventually, you know,

once the capabilities match, presently they can be negotiated away. but the bigger issue, i think comes value created. and i think really what might be the framework for a settlement is certainly not a publicly released thing that we saw. but there might be some sort of agreement for routinized ation of relations with areas of ukraine that are occupied. and finally, i don't, you know, the alliance can't give any indication that work span later on. but i can assure you, you know, we never thought ukraine to be ready for nato membership. i mean i, i don't think i'll live long enough to see it meeting the criteria for that, but what it's doing is forcing countries that are non ally like finland and sweden into cooperation with nato. so you're kind of seeing a self fulfilling prophecy here. you know, paranoia really is it more powerful? so this whole thing about the need for nato to stop expanding eastward is widely

seen by people just as a, an anxiety from the russians about the wind of change. the, the moment is continuous blowing eastward is gonna arrive on the shores of russia, and this is exactly the existential threat for putting he does not want to see genuine winds of change and democracy in the area. no, of course the kremlin argues that russian does have a democracy while the west democracies are not fully democracies or have many deficiencies. but that of course just simply. ready prop, again the stuff and that's not really the major issue. the major issue is rather an geo political. also, we're actually demographic because it's not only booked in, it's a large portion of the russian ruling, a week. ministers and stop russian diplomats tend to me even 20 years

ago that don't worry, the russian population is contracting, but we're going to add up the half of ukraine, all of our roofs. half of a lot of people say 30000000 people will join russia and every, at least and their thing is going to be just fine. don't worry. so that's the man, very much in the minds of the russian. not only the grandma, but the entirety of the russian a week, or a big portion of it that west encroachments are going to ruin the idea of gathering all the russian speakers in one nation in one kind of empire and. and so that should be opposed with all possibilities of go means because that's the future of russia, that the west ones that take away fast and does it also raise the question about the need for nature itself to reinvent itself because the world is change and they

need to have to understand ultimately that with russia there's absolutely no way you can just go ahead to was a confrontation because it's not going to benefit anyone. i think you're right to this. busy this doesn't, you know, it's a very tragic situation, most of all for ukrainian and was no good outcome inside, but i think very immediately we need to think, how can we prove, prevent this invasion, envision from happening and 2 things need to happen on the one hand, the u. s. and the crime wants to european partners, they need to engage in negotiations with russia. and 2nd of all, it needs to be there needs to be very credible deterrence in place on, on the part of the u. s. and the european partners that moscow will. busy indeed, pay a high price to move toward to invading embedding ukraine.

it needs to be clear that this will not, not, not be just an easy invasion for the, for the criminal they'll, they'll pay a high economic price for this. of course, it's in the, in the situation with the sky high energy prices. this is not an easy situation for, for your, but we do need to look at everything on, on, on the table in terms of deter, david, you talk about the nature as if it were a united stance. so united voice, but in a way or another many europeans, i think you cannot, we cannot indefinitely rely on the america because we've seen former administration doing business with the russians in a different way. is this some things that put in can use to his own political advantage for more leverage? yeah, i think he's trying to drive which look good as achieving a lot of the he already has in place a lot of situations of united states fear during the reagan administration period of the cold war. and that is that he has a natural gas pipeline directly to europe,

which rated ministration, fought tooth and nail. so he has western europe that's economically dependent on russia. and he also has intermediate nuclear weapons present in europe with the screwdriver, missiles that, you know, can move back and forth. so these were, these were considered nightmare scenarios in the 90s. and the threat was that they would cleave europe in the united states and allow food to defeat europe in detail, which is, you know, kind of what he's doing. so the problem is, you know, the military capacity, you know, nato cannot muster 100 battalions to match the 100, the times that boots mass on ukraine. so i don't think the west is looking at carrying us militarily. and as i said earlier, we're going to reconstitute something like pershing, that's going to take 15 years. you know, we shut down those assembly lines. so there's a really imbalance your own military side in favor of russia. and i think that leads the west to look towards the political and economic solutions. thank you. are

already inclined to fit unfortunately, we're running out of time. let's hope that diplomacy will finally prevail, pavel taken, holla, austin, bennett, and david ross, i really appreciate you. and i thank you and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website as a dot com for further discussion. because our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash hey james. i saw you can also join the conversation on twitter again, 540 from the house and the entire team here in town, like a ah, [000:00:00;00]

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