offered another argument, pointing to another clause in the agreement, which said that any other person was barred from using that agreement. in another court case and said this suggests that he thought prince andrew perhaps could not use this agreement to get the case thrown out. so it's all very technical legal, procedural arguments. at the end of the day, the judge said he would make his decision very soon. and this decision will determine whether or not the case proceeds to an actual trial. ah, this is observed, these are the top stories and you as president, joe biden has told americans, there is no excuse not to be vaccinated against cope with 19. he and other world leaders of grappling with a steep rise and infection numbers. so 35000000 people

not vaccinated. and let me be absolutely clear. we have in hand all the vaccines we need to get every american fully vaccinated, including the booster shot. so there's no excuse, no troops really won't be non vaccinated. this continues to be a pest demick of the unvaccinated, so we gotta make more progress in the air as bracy for another wave of corona. vara says it's reported another high of more than 58000 new cases in one day. that's twice the number seemed only 4 days or merely a 3rd of those were in the new deleon moon, by rossetti support back curfews and other restrictions for the 1st time in 3 months. hong kong has found a case of covey. 19. it has not been able to trace health officials say it's likely to be the owner convent and scrambling to find anyone who was in contact with the infected person. tennis, dont know at joker, which is received the medical exemption to compete administrating open the

tournament has stretched cove at 19 vaccination requirements, but its director says he has not been granted any special favor player has refused to reveal whether he's been vaccinated. but last year said he was opposed to it cuz it stands president has accepted the government's resignation after protest against the price of fuel. within 200 people have been arrested for attacking government buildings. the main suspect to the killing of haiti's president, the of them wise has appeared in the u. s. federal court. the 1st time, a former officer in columbia's military was extradited from panama, is the 1st to face criminal charges connected to the murder in july. the trigger a political crisis in the caribbean, mention authorities have arrested dozens of people, but no one has been formally charged. at this point, you have to say with her lines more news coming up here on al jazeera right after we go to the inside story. i've not me each and every one of us have a lot of responsibility to change our personal space for the better.

the way we could do this experiment and a lot of us could increase just a little bit that would be worth doing. anybody had any idea that it would become a magnet who is incredibly rest asking women to get 50 percent representation in the constituent assembly here and getting this pick up to collect the segregate to say the reason this is extremely important service that they provide the city we need to take america to try to bring people together and trying to deal with people who have been left behind me. oh, how would the military ensued on deal with the unrest,

the resignation of the prime minister and growing public anger of throwing the country further into uncertainty? put a new power sharing deal be the way out. this is inside door. ah hello, welcome to the program. i'm kim vanelle. sudan is again in political turmoil following the resignation of prime minister umbrella hancock and come less than 2 miles south . he was reinstated under a deal with the military. the senior military leader, general abdel father albert han is calling for an urgent caretaker government and new measures to deal with the demonstrations pro democracy group say the military should stay out of government and are planning more protests. a political deadlock between all sides has left the country unable to transition from dictatorship to democracy. since the ousting of long time rover omar bashir back in 2019. during

a speech on state tv, hemlock said more talks when needed for all parties to reach agreement. what on the opposite, opposite though of one shall we needed a round table for the salvation of a country to come to an agreement. i tried to spare my country the disaster. recently i met with all the civilian and military officials of the transitional council to adjust his issues on monday after i decided to return to you were to of entrusted to me and resigned the position of prime minister ross. well, let's take a look back at how this started. 3 years ago and uprising and sudan forced the government from office. it began in december 2018 with protests over the rising cost of living. but it soon evolved into calls for an end to president obama. alba shares 30 year rule that led to him being overthrown by the military and april of 20. 19. a power sharing agreement was signed in august that year abdullah hum doc

was appointed prime minister leading a transitional council. in february, he announced a cabinet re shuffle in the face of major street protests against fuel and bred shortages. then last october, the military declared a state of emergency dissolving the interim government and arresting civilian leaders. since then, thousands of people have demonstrated and dozens have been killed by security forces. ah, are at a time to bring in our guests in nairobi, collude here is a political commentator and managing partner at incite strategy partners. in summerville, alex evolve is executive director at world p. sanitation at tufts university. and in doha, we have our meds, l. j, lee, a lawyer and legal commentator, a very warm welcome to the program to you all. i'd like to begin with you on that l . j. lee, here in doha, is that hm. box resignation. any surprise to you?

it is not 10, despite all the headlines i would, i would describe it is probably the most consequential irrelevant event in incident history. it is irrelevant because i'm to look up as far as the people on the street are concerned. really loss is part of political relevance. the minute he went, rogan signed that agreement with br hon on november 21st. it is irrelevant also because it's been weeks in the making, so it's not a surprise to anyone yet. at the same time, this could prove to be a fairly consequential event, mainly for the international community, which was content to move on from sudan after the november 21st agreement. and maybe for the few remaining skeptics in sudan. because what this resignation does is that it removes the last remaining fig leaf from the october 25th coo and it shall just chose it for what it really is. it's a full fledged military regime now. and that in effect force is the international community to re engage and refocus inter dan, which might be

a good thing for the impasse that is happening. and as far as the pro democracy movement, although they have moved on beyond, i'm broken his agreement. i think the political vacuum that his departure creates does create an impetus for them to move faster to try to present an alternative to try to unify their flight and prove to the world and to the rest of the sudanese population that they are able to unite and present a credible alternative, so that's why it is simultaneously relevant and irrelevant to the same time. we'll talk a little bit later about the potential role of the international community calling for. and i thought to cross the to know the who head, where does this leave to don? where does this think the protest movement? where does this leave the military to into and its plans? well, my pointed out dog is just a sort of his tenure represents

a phase in the revolution. this is not in any way the sum total of revolution, the democracy movement was that the $400.00 will remain that off to his resignation . and so this is just now sort of entering a new phase of the revolution. one where the purchase, the point of movement is unencumbered by discussions around whether he should be given a chance to make good on on the promises. or whether he shouldn't, you know, that conversation is now moved. the big conversation that much more important conversation is how do we ensure that the army goes back into the barracks and leave political and economic life for good. and of course, on the, on the military side, they now contend with a sort of a new counsel, both internationally, but also domestically the more they double down. and they have and they have been doing so the more they become the clear, overarching enemy. without anyone to be able to sort of put the burden on unknown

handle is no longer bad to blame as part of the governance structure. they are the government, unequivocally. and what that means is that they are international back as mostly in the region are, will be increasingly unable to support them in the same way because of the reputation or risk that arises from the level of repression that we're seeing. alex, they've all. why did bella accept this deal in november in the 1st place? just because he was, i mean, he was under house arrest. right. but did, did he truly believe it would work? was it ever going to work? it was always going to be an extremely long shot, and i think he was under extreme duress. he was very isolated and the, and the key failing was that he negotiated really on his own didn't bring in the whole democracy movement till all the civilian artists. so he was isolated from the beginning, i think he had to came out of ations one which was and both will hon. one was to

see if he could prevent further bloodshed and that didn't count because the democracy movement did not accept his post. his, his as compromised proposals, and the 2nd was, he sees very clearly and more clearly than any body else. the economic precipice done is really that he would be able to engineer enough of an economy bailout to, to prevent the worst from happening. now these, he never had the political base political support in order to be able to leverage concessions out of the military concessions that would have been necessary for his, his position to be workable and, and, and over the weeks it became clearly unworkable. and if that was a surprise, the only surprise was really that he held on for as long as you did before and quit . ok. i've had l. julie,

i mean the deal was that was that was announced last month was going to be an independent technocratic cabinet under military oversight. i mean, was that ever going to be acceptable to the people? absolutely not. and i think that is demonstrated by the continued demonstrations on the streets. the a very cursory reading of that document of, of november 21st will tell you that he was just creating a civilian facade or military role. the, the, every paragraph was echoing the statement that were hon made on the day of the coo and he was given increase powers. if i recall correctly article for of that agreement to give the sovereignty counsel full oversight, or we're all executive function. so i'm brooks hands would have been very tied in, even if he wanted to do good. he wouldn't have been able to do on i think he realized that are all being a bit late, but he ultimately did. holla,

had some critics of humbug. have suggested that this not only left the vail on the november pact, but shows that even over the past 2 years. since the toppling of my other shed that there was never actually that the real political will to, to make a full transition to democracy. once you take, i think that's clearly accurate on the military pride. i think they have been shown to be bad. they've acted when it comes to a lot of these agreements that they signed, including the constitutional declaration of $2191.00 of the reasons, of course, of the constitutional declaration itself contained the cool clause that allowed them to sort of out in order to be able to take over if they felt that things were not going according to plan. of course, that's a very ambiguous statement, and it gives them that sort of latitude that they've been enjoying pretty much since 2019. some people have commented that, you know, this is sort of the military buying time that they've been buying time over the past 2 years. and now are we seeing this reconciliation of the glamour military

project that we had on the ship? and we see this through, you know, the sort of appointments to the security check the appointments to the legal sector as well as the new emboldening powers of the security services as well as the other myriad of security or i from t just policies will security sector but what that means is that effectively, you know, the past 2 years have been the sort of experiments to the military to see, to what extent they could use the civilians as the speaker. and that didn't work so well in the past 2 years and were able to push through on some of that priorities. of course, there were lots of challenges that they face, particularly around federal governance, the unions lloyd cetera. but really, i think the events previous just prior to the coo and then of course, subsequent to, to that really prove that, that the military never really was in this for the democratic transformation. which is again unsurprising for anyone who has been watching saddam out of all in his

televised speech. mister humbug. said that the country is at a dangerous turning point that threatens its whole survival. do you agree with that sentiment? i? i don't think he's exaggerating. i think that is what we have at the moment is a regime in that is in some ways is a very familiar one. there in some ways this is, you know, with familiar with the military dictatorship that was put on the, the, the coding the appearance of nationalism, of standing up saving the nation. but in this case, one of the, the defining features of this regime is the extent to which it has penetrated the economy and especially rural society to militarize, much of the commercial sector and increasingly the rural production sector as well . especially through the number 2 in the regime. general mohammed committee and his

rapids support forces who are the de facto governing in da 4. and many of them are in areas and the depths of this threat to critic control and meet entanglement of this cat. the critic system in the region in with, with egypt with the gulf states, etc, means of this is actually a different regionalized form of military gum nuns that will be harder to route. and i think this is really walk from doc has as a conventional economist who had a vision of so don resuming us with developmental trajectory. it's saying he's saying i cannot find a way back to the economic and social stabilisation of saddam. we are in the grip of this of this monstrous trump bound to re military reach. cast acrostic system.

i had l jolly. i mean that is a very dim, grim picture for the future. if in fact, what we have is a situation where the last 2 years of transition inverted commas has actually to full democracy, has actually not been met at all. then how painful is the next weeks and months going to be for this protest movement, who are unrelenting in their desire to see a transition to a, to a full democracy. think that's the real challenge. we have the full determination of the youth on the street to go on with their protests and regained the freedom that they've yearned for 4 years. and we have the generals who are refusing to, to, to, to give a power. so it's the classic, unstoppable force facing the immovable object. but if, if we, if we read the landscape, we see that sudan has been ungovernable for, for the military over the last 22 months since they've taken over. and the,

the demonstrations have only increased and i think with the departure of prime minister handbook the, the, the intern, the internal pressure will be coupled by increasing intra international pressure. and the military won't be able to continue the bloodshed that they have started before for fear of increased international pressure. so they will be faced with the menu of 3 options. the 1st is an negotiated exit, where they step down and leave the country. and then the 2nd is a possibility of an internal coup within the armed forces. and 3rd is, is, is an unarmed confrontation, some type of civil war. and i think we all prefer the 1st option, and i think the increased pressure on, on the, on the military will hopefully yield that outcome. and that's why we urgently hope that the international community will regain its focus on sedan and try to avert

option to an option 3. that could lingo i could bring a lot of bloodshed that that can be avoided, hollis head. how do you think that the tree is going to respond to under a 100 bucks a resignation and and do you think that they will follow through on this promise for elections in july 2023, i believe was the date. i mean, the 1st question, i think they were initially worried about departure because they, the reason they were coming back on the 1st of november was so they could gain access to international financing. obviously that have materialized because the international community that would give o, but or tacit approval to the general, hadn't back that up financially, which i think is a good thing. but in the middle of all that sort of negotiation, they have realized that he won't, that he, that the money isn't coming in now with his resignation. it's almost certainly look like it isn't. so they've been shopping around for placement. we've had certain

names including the minister of finance, but of course nobody wants to sit set from this point in charlotte, because any prime minister is put in place now. we'll just like him to be seen, to be an accomplice, to the murders and the killings in the detention, etc. and so they're going to have a very difficult time finding at the man in any case, they are not the body constitution. me that appoint a prime minister is either the f, f c or a parliament which has never been formed during this transition period. so they will find a very difficult time to make it stick, even if they do find someone who's willing to go in with them at the elections. at the election 2023, only benefits be the general, the only benefit. so very much that the background and so i don't think, i think everyone will see through at a sort of an election egypt style as, as the sort of theater of democracy that rather than the actual genuine commitment . and so i don't think they'll get anywhere with an election by way of convincing

people both domestically and internationally. it's to do some in any way for many of the political parties to commit to an electoral process. only 6 months from now . i list of all, i will the international community do think increase it engagement increase it's pressure on the military as a result of, of this, the question, what, what, what can or might it do? we're up to know the international response said by the united states with europe in tow over the last few months has been extremely feeble. the international have very, very strong content because of the financial dependence was sued on, on, on debt relief and on the multilateral international assistance. but those comes really have not been paid at all effectively. what we have seen, particularly from washington, is that policy in the entire region and the whole of the horn of africa has,

under the trumpet, ministration was essentially delegated to israel egypt, saudi arabia and the united are and where they were given a 3 year free hand to do pretty much what they wanted in sit on in new york and, and in somalia. and the biden administration has not pulled that but, and, and essentially the, that the calculation of the, i see it of the generals is that they have their friends in the region. they have egypt very clearly, behind them. israel, through the extension of the camera, mccord's, the recognition of saddam's recognition of israel is, is dealing directly with general have no interest in democracy and the saudis, and the moratti's, as we know, also have no interest in democracy and now them patching up the differences with other states in the region, including katara, turkey, that are also not in favor of democracy. and these states have enormous lobbying

power in european capital and in the us that they are sold at cetera, et cetera. we know that the influence they know what, how hon and have met yet counting on is that they ultimately we'll see out any, any pressure for democratization from western nations because of this solid batting in the region. and at the moment, washington london, paris brussels are doing almost nothing to disabuse them of this preconception. i'm an elderly dale, agree with that assessment in terms of the international and legion says that the geo political powers at play here. yes or no, i think i think it's pretty clear that sudan is, is in a difficult neighborhood sort of speak. and i think part of the problem is that the pro democracy camp didn't, did a horrible job presenting its case while they were in power. for example, hm doke,

happily went on to european capitals into us and completely gave up the regional relationships for, for brohannon committee. to to further cement the perception that the pro democracy camp is a threat to, to the interest of those regional allies. i think there is a pass where the pro democracy camp can present its case and can present the reality that that one, sudan is ungovernable for these military leaders. and that the long term stability of sudan will not happen without the st getting what it wants. and without that, there will be significant ramifications for the region which will be part of the national security of those regional players. so i think there is an argument to be made to, to, to the u. s. europe and definitely including the regional allies that their long term interest is actually even if they don't agree with the concept of democracy.

but they have a vested interest in a stable sedan. and that a democratic sedan is not going to be an exporter of revolutions. but a place that is stable, that is economically stable, that where they can talk about food security, talk about regional security, and we can have the same conversations. i think other players might be a little different. i think israel russia on others who may have more to 1st interest might be difficult to, to win over. but i think at least the, the europeans, the americans and the regional allies with some constructive dialogue can be brought forward. and i think the possibility of american sanctions on the cool leaders are, which is being tabled now in the congress might change. they quit just significantly because if those individuals become toxic and become a liability for their regional allies, i think we will see pressure by those regional allies on those individuals are step aside and called for new military leadership that is more willing to to heat the

calls of the streets holiday i won't say or take what if any sort of pressure might make the military back track. honda to a full civilian government now and, and if you do think it's possible, would that be internal pressure from the protest movement? would that be external pressure from the international community or both? it does absolutely need to be both. we can suddenly bang on the domestic pressure to the pro democracy movement. what has been not so dependable has been the international pressure. and it's quite clear that the minute the minute you know, the main constituency is not the domestic one. they all the different general also have different countries of days or to rely on in the patron client relationship. and so there is, you know, when we say the general sort of more link to more, engage more with the region that's not necessarily

a monolith. there are the sorts of individual relationships going on as well. the, the core problem is, and you know, to give the administration that do, they did realize that the, the military back so heavily on the regional play as i mentioned before. and so they did, you know, try and make sort of overtures to the country that particular saudi arabia. and we did see some net impact of that in the way that saudi arabia, in relation to egypt, israel and the way he responded to the crew. but of course, that meaning that the method actually translates into pressure of meaningful pressure. transformative pressure on the general and not only really come about if there is a concerted shift away from sedan, being seen as a security to a security len rather than to a foreign policy led with genuine partnerships, economic or otherwise, can take, can be cultivated. and so what we have right now is, you know,

the pressure that is needed essentially from the west on these regional powers. it isn't really having the impact. and that's like, and that's due to a global shift in the influence of western countries. but mainly the u. s, after the 1st trump policy of out sourcing regional horn of africa policy to the go, which is the way as a whole other discussion to whole of the inside story program in of itself. we will have to leave it there for time. a big thank you to all of i guess for joining us on the program. hello. cleared alex deval and i'm at l. jamie and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website sel, 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha, inside story. you can also join the conversation over on twitter. handle is at ha, inside story for me, kim vanelle and the whole team here in doha. ah,

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