as a next step in a difficult one, canada and the parties will negotiate a final settlement agreement which will map out how compensation will flow to 1st nations, children and families will establish a framework for long term funding to improve services for children and families. the parties have until march 31st, to finalize the agreement, jody vance. al jazeera vancouver. ah, so this is out there. these are the top stories and hong kong is binding flights from 8 countries, including australia, the u. s, and the u. k. as it battles rising cobit 19 cases, it's also shouting some public venues from friday. that will include gyms and night clubs. officials fair, the con variant could be spreading undetected through the community. the french parliament was suspended over night off the president to men. will macros made remarks targeting people you have not been vaccinated?

the government is trying to push through a bell that would make vaccination pulse re, to access public venue. india is bracing for another wave of current of ours says it's reported another high of more than $58000.00 new cases in 24 hours. that's twice the number seen only 4 days ago. nearly a 3rd were in new delhi and moved by tennis. don novak jock of ich has received a medical exemption to compete in the australian open tournament director. as a play was not granted any special favor which has refused to reveal whether he's been vaccinated, protest as a again down on the streets of classic star despite several state of of most c orders. the president has accepted the government's resignation after violent demonstrations sparked initially by high fuel prices. though, what under star cardella, i am, dear compatriots. i urge you once again to see reason and not to react to provocations from inside and outside. the euphoria of rallies and permissive nurse

calls to take office spaces of civilian and military authorities are absolutely illegal. this is a crime followed by a punishment. a rockets hits an iraqi military base hosting us soldiers, although no casualties have be reported. it happened near baghdad international airport. several attacks on us troops in iraq had been attempted in recent days. and they come on the 2nd anniversary of the killing of top already in general, has some sort of money who was assassinated by the us in baghdad. the main suspect in the killing of haiti's president, joan and moiz, has appeared in a u. s. federal court for the 1st time, a former officer in columbia's military was expedited from panama. he's the 1st to face criminal charges connected to the murder in july. come out next it since i story i for ah,

how would the military ensued on deal with the unrest, the resignation of the prime minister and the growing public anger of throwing the country further into uncertainty? could a new power sharing deal be the way out with his inside story? ah. hello, welcome to the program. i'm kim vanelle. sudan is again in political turmoil following the resignation of prime minister umbrella humbug. and come less than 2 miles south . he was reinstated under a deal with the military, the senior military leader, general abdel father albert han is calling for an urgent caretaker government and

new measures to deal with the demonstrations pro democracy group say the military should stay out of government and are planning more protests a political deadlock between all sides has left the country unable to transition from dictatorship to democracy since the asking of long time, although i'll be share back in 2019. during a speech on state tv, hemlock said more talks when needed for all parties to reach agreement. what i'm the opposite. i was at the level of mature remitted a round table for the salvation of the country to come to an agreement. i tried to spare my country for disaster. recently i met with all the civilian and military officials of the transitional council to adjust his issues on monday after i decided to return to you were to have entrusted to me and resigned the position of prime minister. last, well, let's take a look back at how this started. 3 years ago and uprising and sudan forced the government from office. it began in december 2018 with protests over the rising

cost of living. but it soon evolved into calls for an end to president obama alba shares 30 year rule that led to him being overthrown by the military and april of 20. 19 a power sharing agreement was signed in august that year abdullah hum doc was appointed prime minister leading a transitional council. in february, he announced a cabinet re shuffle in the face of major street protests against fuel and bred shortages. then last october, the military declared a state of emergency dissolving the interim government and arresting civilian leaders. since then, thousands of people have demonstrated and dozens have been killed by security forces. ah, are at a time to bring in our guests in nairobi, collude here is a political commentator and managing partner at incite strategy partners. in summerville, alex evolve is executive director at world peace on nation at tufts university. and in doha, we have our meds, l. j lee, a lawyer and legal commentator,

a very warm welcome to the program to you all i'd like to begin with you on that l . j lee are here in, doha is on that one box resignation. any surprise to you? it is not 10, despite all the headlines i would, i would describe it is probably the most consequential irrelevant event in incident history. it is irrelevant because i'm to look up as far as the people on the street are concerned. really loss is part of the political relevance. the minute he went, rogan signed that agreement with brewer han on november 21st. it is irrelevant also because it's been weeks in the making. so it's not a surprise to anyone yet. at the same time, this could prove to be a fairly consequential event, but mainly for the international community, which was content to move on from sudan after the november 21st agreement. and maybe for the few remaining skeptics in sudan. because what this resignation does

is that it removes the last remaining fig leaf from the october 25th coo and it shall just chose it for what it really is. it's a full fledged military regime now. and that in effect force is the international community to re engage and refocus inter dan, which might be a good thing for the impasse that is happening. and as far as the pro democracy movement, although they have moved on beyond, i'm broken his agreement. i think the political vacuum that his departure creates does create an impetus for them to move faster to try to present an alternative to try to unify their flight and prove to the world and to the rest of the sudanese population that they are able to unite and present a credible alternative, so that's why it is simultaneously relevant and irrelevant to the same time. we'll talk a little bit later about the potential role of the international community calling

for, and i thought to cross the to night, well the who head, where does this leave to don? where does this think the protest movement? where does this leave the military to into and its plans? well as adamant pointed out in a ham doke is just a of sort of his tenure represents a fades in the revolution. this is not in any way in the sum total of revolution. and there the pro democracy movement was there before him, dogs will remain there after his resignation. and so this is just now as sort of entering a new phase of the revolution. one where the purchase, the pro democracy movement is unencumbered by discussions around whether ham dog should be given a chance to make good on on the promises or, or whether he shouldn't, you know, that conversation is now moot. the bigger conversation, the much more important conversation is how do we ensure that those armies goes back into the barracks and leaves. political and economic life are good. and of course only on the military side. they now up contend with a sort of a new calculation. both internationally,

but also domestically the more they double down and they have been the happen doing . so the more they become sort of ab declare, overarching enemy without any want to be able to sort of put the burden on on handbook, is no longer there to blame as part of the governance structure. they are the government and unequivocally. and what that means is that they are international backers, mostly in the region, are, are, will be increasingly unable to support them in the same way because of the reputation or risk that arises from the level of repression that we're seeing. alex dave, all, why did our dollar unlock except the steel in november in the 1st place? was it just because he was, i mean, he was under house arrest. right. but did, did he truly believe it would work? was it ever going to work? it was always going to be an extremely long shot, and i think he was under extreme duress. he was very isolated and the, and the key failing was that he negotiated really on his own didn't bring in the,

the, the full democracy movement. all, all the civilian artes. so he was isolated from the beginning. i think he had to came out of ations one which was on both will hon. one was to see if he could prevent further bloodshed and that didn't work out because the democracy movement did not accept his put his, his is compromised proposals. and the 2nd was, he sees very clearly and perhaps more clearly than anybody else. the economic precipice to don is go and really hope that he will be able to engineer enough all, but he cannot make bailout to, to prevent the worst from happening. now these, he never had the political base political support in order to be able to leverage concessions out of the military, the concessions that would have been necessary for his,

his position to be workable and, and, and over the weeks it became clearly unworkable. and if that was a surprise, the only surprise was really that he held on for as long as you did before. quit ok . i've had l. julie, i mean the deal was that was that was announced last month was going to be an independent technocratic cabinet under military oversight. i mean, was that ever going to be acceptable to the people? absolutely not. and i think that is demonstrated by the continued demonstrations on the streets. the a very cursory reading of that document of, of november 21st will tell you that he was just creating a civilian facade or military role. the, the, every paragraph was echoing the statement that were hon made on the day of the coo and he was given increase powers. if i recall correctly article for of that agreement to give the sovereignty counsel full oversight,

or we're all executive function. so i'm dogs hands would have been very tied even if he wanted to do good. he wouldn't have been able to do on i think he realized that a all beats a bit late, but he ultimately did. holland had some critics of humbug have suggested that this not only left the vail on the november pact, but shows that even over the past 2 years since the toppling of my other shed that there was never actually that the real political will to, to make a full transition to democracy once you take i think that's clearly accurate on the military pride. i think they have been shown to be bad. they've acted when it comes to a lot of these agreements that they signed, including the constitutional declaration of $2191.00 of the reasons, of course, the constitutional declaration itself contained the qu, clothes that allowed them to sort of out, in order to be able to take over if they felt that things were not going according

to plan, of course, that's a very ambiguous statement, and it gives them that sort of latitude that they've been enjoying pretty much since 2019. some people have commented that, you know, this is sort of the military buying time that they've been buying time over the past 2 years. and now are we seeing this? we consolidation of the glamour military project that we had on the ship. and we see this through, you know, the sort of appointment to the security factor appointments to the legal sector as well as the new emboldening powers of the security services as well as the other myriad of security or i from t just policies will security sector. but what that means is that effectively, you know, the past 2 years have been the sort of experiment to the military to see, to what extent be could use the civilian as the speaker. and that didn't work so well in the past 2 years and were able to push through on some of the priorities. of course, there were lots of challenges that they face, particularly around federal governance, the unions lloyd cetera. but really,

i think the events previous just prior to the coo and then of course, subsequent to, to that really prove that, that the military never really was in this for the democratic transformation. which is again unsurprising for anyone who has been watching saddam out of all in his televised speech. mister humbug. said that the country is at a dangerous turning point that threatens its whole survival. do you agree with that sentiment? i? i don't think he's exaggerating. i think that is what we have at the moment is a regime in that is in some ways is a very familiar one. there in some ways this is, you know, with familiar with the military dictatorship that was put on the, the, the coding the appearance of nationalism, of standing up saving the nation. but in this case, one of the, the defining features of this regime is the extent to which it has penetrated the

economy and especially rural society to militarize. much of the commercial sector, increasingly the rural production sector as well. especially through the number 2 in the regime general mohammed committee and his rapid support forces, who are the de facto governing in da 4 and many of them are in areas and the depths of this threat to critic control and meet entanglement of this cat. the chronic system in the region in with, with egypt with the gulf states, et cetera, means of this is actually a, a different regionalized form of military gum nuns that will be harder to up the roots. and i think this is really watch dot com dot kansas as a conventional economist. you had a vision of sir don resuming us with developmental trajectory. it's saying he's

saying i cannot find a way back to the economic and social stabilisation of saddam. we are in the grip of this of this monstrous trump bound to re military reach just across the system. i had l jolly. i mean that is a very dim, grim picture for the future. if in fact, what we have a situation where the last 2 years of transition inverted commas has actually to full democracy, has actually not been met at all. then how painful is the next weeks and months going to be for this protest movement, who are unrelenting in their desire to see a transition to a, to a full democracy. think that's the real challenge. we have the full determination of the youth on the street to go on with their protests and regained the freedom that they've urine for 4 years. and we have the generals who are refusing to, to,

to give up power. so it's the classic, unstoppable force facing the immovable object. but if, if we, if we read the landscape, we see that. so that has been ungovernable for, for the military over the last 2 months since they've taken over. and the, the demonstrations have only increased and i think with the departure of prime minister handbook the, the intern, the internal pressure will be coupled by increasing intra international pressure. and the military won't be able to continue the bloodshed that they have started before. for fear of increased international pressure, so they will be faced with the menu of 3 options. the 1st is an negotiated exit, where they step down and leave the country. and then the 2nd is a possibility of an internal cool within the armed forces. and 3rd is, is, is an unarmed confrontation,

some type of civil war. and i think we all prefer the 1st option, and i think the increased pressure on, on the, on the military will hopefully yield that outcome. and that's why we urgently hope that the international community will regain its focus on sudan and try to avert option to an option 3. that could lingo could bring a lot of bloodshed that that can be avoided. holler head, how do you think the military is going to respond to under a 100 bucks a resignation and and do you think that they will follow through on this promise for elections in july 2023, i believe was the days. i mean, the 1st question, i think they were initially worried about departure because they, the reason they were coming back on the 1st of november was so they could gain access to international financing. obviously that have materialized because the international community that would give o, but or tacit approval to the general, hadn't back that up financially, which i think is

a good thing. but in the middle of all that sort of negotiation, they have realized that he won't, that he, that the money isn't coming in now with his resignation. it's almost certainly look like it isn't. so they've been shopping around for placement. we've had certain names including the former minister of finance, but of course nobody wants to set this point in charlotte because any prime minister that is put in place now will just like him to be seen to be an accomplice to the murders and the killings in the detention, etc. and so they're going to have a very difficult time finding at the man in any case, they are not the body constitution. me that appoint a prime minister is either the f, f c or a parliament, which of course has never been formed during this transition period. so they will find a very difficult time to make it stick. even if they do find someone who's willing to go in with them at the elections at the election, 2023, only benefits the general, the only benefit so very much that the background. and so i don't think,

i think everyone will see through at a sort of an election egypt style as, as the sort of theater of democracy that rather than the actual genuine commitment to it. and so i don't think they'll get anywhere with an election by way of convincing people both domestically and internationally, if in any way, for many of the political parties to commit to the electoral process. only 6 months from now. i list of all, i will the international community do think increase it engagement increase it's pressure on the military as a result of, of this, the question, what, what, what can or might it do? we're up to know the international response said by the united states with europe in tow over the last few months has been extremely feeble. the international have very, very strong content because of the financial dependence was sued on, on,

on debt relief and on the multilateral international assistance. but those comes really have not been paid at all effectively. what we have seen, particularly from washington, is that policy in the entire region and the whole of the horn of africa has, under the trumpet, ministration was essentially delegated to israel egypt, saudi arabia and the united are and where they were given a 3 year free hand to do pretty much what they wanted in sit on in new york and, and in somalia. and the biden administration has not pulled that but, and, and essentially the, that the calculation of the, i see it of the generals is that they have their friends in the region. they have egypt very clearly, behind them. israel, through the extension of the camera, mccord's, the recognition of saddam's recognition of israel is, is dealing directly with general have no interest in democracy, and the saudis,

and the moratti's, as we know, also have no interest in democracy and now them patching up the differences with other states in the region including katara, turkey that are also not in favor of democracy. and these states have enormous lobbying power in european capital and in the us that they are sold at cetera, et cetera. we know that the influence they know what, how hans and have met yet counting on is that they ultimately we'll see out any, any pressure for democratization from western nations because of this solid batting in the region. and at the moment, washington london, paris brussels are doing almost nothing to disabuse them of this preconception. i'm an elderly dale, agree with that assessment in terms of the international and legion says that the geo political powers at play here. yes or no,

i think i think it's pretty clear that sudan is, is in a difficult neighborhood, so to speak. and i think part of the problem is that the pro democracy camp did it, did a horrible job presenting its case while they were in power. for example. hm doke. happily went on to european capitals into us and completely gave up the regional relationships for brohannon committee. to, to further cement the perception that the pro democracy camp is a threat to, to the interest of those regional allies. i think there is a pass where the pro democracy camp can present its case and can present the reality that that one, sudan is ungovernable. for these military leaders and that the long term stability of sudan will not happen without the st getting what it wants. and without that there will be significant ramifications for the region which will be part of the

national security of those regional players. so i think there is an argument to be made to, to, to the u. s. europe, and definitely including the regional allies that they're long term interest is actually even if they don't agree with the concept of democracy. but they have a vested interest in a stable sedan, and that a democratic sedan is not going to be an exporter of revolutions. but a place that is stable, that is economically stable. that where they can talk about food security, talk about regional security, and we can have the same conversations. i think other players might be a little different, i think is ro, rush on others who may have more to 1st interest might be difficult to to, to win over. but i think at least the, the europeans, the americans and the regional allies with some constructive dialogue can be brought forward. and i think the possibility of american sanctions on the cool leaders are, which is being tabled now in the congress might change. they quit just significantly

because if those individuals become toxic and become a liability for their regional allies, i think we will see pressure by those regional allies on those individuals are step aside and called for new military leadership that is more willing to to heat the calls of the streets. hello. hey, i want say or tag. what if any sort of pressure might make the military back track honda to a full civilian government now and, and if you do think it's possible, would that be internal pressure from the protest movement? would that be external pressure from the international community or both? it does absolutely need to be both. we can suddenly bang on the domestic pressure who the pro democracy movement, what has been not so dependable has been the international pressure. and it's quite clear that the military, you know, the main constituency is not the domestic one. they all the different general

also have different countries of days or to rely on in the patron client relationship. and so there is, you know, when we say the general sort of more link to more, engage more with the region, that's not necessarily a monolith. you know, there are the sorts of individual relationships going on as well. the, the core problem is then, you know, to give the administration that do they did realize that the, the military back so heavily on the regional play as i mentioned before. and so they did, you know, try and make sort of overtures to the country that particular saudi arabia. and we did see some net impact of that in the way that saudi arabia, in relation to egypt, israel and the way he responded to the crew. but of course, that's meaning this unless it actually translates into pressure a meaningful pressure of transformative pressure on the general. and that will only really come about if there is a concerted shift away from sedan,

being seen as a security to a security lens around rather than to a foreign policy lead were genuine partnerships, economic or otherwise can take, can be cultivated. and so what we have right now is, you know, the pressure that is needed essentially from the west on these regional powers. it isn't really having the impact. and that's like, and that's due to a global shift in the influence of western countries. but mainly the u. s, after the trip trump policy of out sourcing regional horn of africa policy to the go, which is the way as a whole other discussion to whole of the inside story program in of itself. we will have to leave it there for time. a big thank you to all of i guess for joining us on the program. hello. cleared alex deval and i'm at l. j. lee. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website sel, 0 dot com. and for further discussion, go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash 8 and sign story. you can also join the conversation over on twitter. handle is at ha, inside story for me,

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