will writes, but his standing has endured sidney watts. yay! proud hollywood pioneer. as much more in everything we're covering, right? m, i'll g 0. don't call ah, look at the main headlines now. and in kazakhstan, the president has told his forces they can shoot to kill without warning. he tries to and violent protests against his government. custom joe might to guy of address the nation, declaring they'll be no negotiations with those he calls armed bandits. this is the worst on rice since cause exxon became independent following the breakup of the soviet union. it was triggered by rising fuel prices. dozens of protest isn't security. personnel have been killed and more than 3000 people detained. gl nordstrom,

you charged them when your motorcycle terraces continue to damage public and private property and use weapons against citizens. moral dawn, i gave an order to law enforcement agencies and the army to open fire without warning was governor to husband, calls abroad for the parties, ordered to move the negotiations to a peaceful resolution. what nonsense. what kind of negotiations can there be with criminals with murderers? we had to deal with armed and trained, bender toner, both local and foreign. just that's why they have to be destroyed. and there will be don to use them. 3 white men convicted of murder and black man and might are brand new or state of georgia, have been sentenced to life in prison. a judge handed down the sentence of father and son, gregory, and travis michael without the possibility of parole. their neighbor, william bryan, was also sentenced to life, but conceit parole after 30 years, sentences come nearly 2 years after the men chased down unarmed amount aubrey before shooting him. india is introducing mandatory hom quarantine for all

international passenger arrivals. new measures apply even if travelers return a negative co, the test at the airport. it follows a surge in new cases with daily infections on friday passing a 117000. and a 2nd tennis player is now being held in australian detention with novak joke of ich renata water cho her has now been asked to leave the country on to quarantine rules. she says that she will do so it comes as the man's well number one made his 1st comments being held, promising more details about the medical exemption. he says, allows him into the country that's it for myself and the team here in london for now. we'll see you tomorrow. counting, the cost is the program coming up next on al jazeera, they'll be more, he's off today from doha. stay with us january. and then jessie, i, we look back on you as the president joe biden,

best deal in office 12 months on from the capital building by the part of the stream. enjoy no social media community. as sierra leon's, recovery from civil war continues. we mock 2 decades since the end of one of africa's most political complex, the bottom line. steve clemens dives headlong into the u. s. issues that shape the rest of the world. as we enter the 3rd year, having 19, we go back to woo him where it all began, and investigate how far we come into the pandemic. january on a jesse at odd, ah, [000:00:00;00] with

hello, i'm darren jordan. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics. this week, 2021 a year of economic recovery, but also a year of supply chain bottlenecks. soaring inflation and omicron. so when it be a bumpy road in the next 12 months, or will it be a year of progress? also this week a downturn in a property sector and energy supply crunch and subdued. consumption. john is economy ground to a whole towards the end of 2021 critique. say it could hit a great move. so when it too big to be ignored by the financial establishment crypto currencies of hit 3 trillion dollars in value and are now becoming mainstream. will the virtual money see a big year again in 2022. now, mass vaccinations progress and antiviral drugs and eased restrictions. 2021 has

proved am opportunity for many countries to reverse economic losses caused by the pandemic. but opening up businesses and going back to normal life has brought new bras, setbacks to such as the rising cost of living. despite the challenges, hopes are running high for the new year until the army kron variant and access to vaccines. change the calculus once again. so wants to come in 2022. we'll let's have a look 1st at what define 2021 from china. the wells factory to the biggest port in california ships queued at harbors. overwhelmed with the rise in demand supply chains tightened. either because of the shortage of goods or people to deliver them . natural gas, oil, and other fuel markets was squeezed. driving an energy crisis, particularly in europe, eating homes and driving cars became very costly. with that came soaring inflation, that's curbing the purchasing power of people on low wages. the u. s. has seen its worst monthly inflation numbers. in almost 40 years. many governments have been scratching their heads of

a monetary policy is to tackle the problems among the options off raising interest rates and winding down stimulus packages. well, for china, it was not just a problem of supply chains and the energy crunch. it's property sector is at risk to with real estate giant ever grand. on the verge of collapse, china's economic growth weakened in the 3rd quarter of 2021 president, she shing things critic say new rules to control the amount owed by big real estate developers. the crackdown on tech companies and celebrities at proven costly for the economy. well, china and other countries also busy trying to tame crypto currencies, while pushing plans to issued their own digital coins. meanwhile, bitcoin and others were going big, even with a volatile market. the virtual current system hit 3 trillion dollars, and most importantly, they've gone mainstream with many international investors, embracing them. so there's lots to unpack with a panel of experts from london below how fees micro hi,

chief executive from the town. i've been out. medina, pueblo in spain, him and blanco research director and had a risk insights america at various maple craft. i'm from hong kong, russia decides fund manager at asia. frontier capitol, welcome to the program. let me start with you. if i may, i mean, i'm, it, chrome seems to be the buzzword at the moment. do you think governments are reacting to every twist and turn of the pandemic can all be going to see more adaptation policies as the pandemic changes? well, i do think governments are reacting very dynamically around be on the kron variant . and it's interesting that different countries are responding differently. so for example, what we have seen is in continental europe, a government to be very aggressive and introducing lockdown measures, requirements vaccine, passports, and then use the u. k. on the other hand, initially was fairly relaxed and as the cases have gone up, they've started to introduce more aggressive measures. then on the other side, you have the u. s,

which essentially is minimizing the risk off on the cross and not really introducing any additional measures beyond recommendations to have the bank seen. so we often governance response, but it varies depending which part of the world that we're in. yeah, him and what about latin america? how is the pandemic impacting economies there? do you think? well, i mean, i think with latin america, there's very few tools left to be used tried because the region responded in such a draconian manner during 2020 and early 2021. that actually implementing many of the same measures that western europe is, is taking, would be socially, economically and politically very difficult. i mean, economically, the region was the hardest hit of any region in the world and recovery prospects are slimming down. so if we think about, you know, some economies will return to prepare them a t p levels in 2023. but that's the best case scenario. we have economies that are looking at

a potential another last decade. so that has huge social impact. government aren't able to dictate quarantine and school closures, like they did in 2020. and also we have crucial elections in 2022 with some of the, the biggest democracies in the region going to the polls. so thinking about how pandemic measures can impact incumbents or traditional politically leads is clearly front and center of any government decision. the region does have one advantage at the moment, which is south america is in, in the southern hemisphere, summer. so cases are lower and age and rates are lower than they were in the north . and we're sure what, what's the full cost them for growth in asia? i mean, we're on the chrome, have more impact there. as countries like south korea, for instance, impose tighter pandemic restrictions when, if you can most of the developing markets initially much. marcus, an issue,

i think with respect to the band and majority of the all the convert into a future variance. i think most of the governments in the region have basically decided to live with the widest given the fact that in our end we have until the 30th day of the vendor makes you had pretty strict restrictions and doesn't 20 on so for large but doesn't 21, because that a logical only goes across across markets in asia, for example, india and vietnam and thailand as well. and at the same time you for vaccination rates of increase significantly across pretty much most countries in the world. for example, the entire exhibition of population of 2 percent. so that actually has been the open of the gone business situation much better. so as long as in horse prospect, vision levels under control and things that are, you know, as bad as what they want those and when do you want the dividend of it? and i think most economies will manage situation. they won't be locked on on a large scale because the common cause. busy they do, i so i think we'll see pretty strong regarding 2022 of almost markets in emerging

markets. an issue. so below the big issue in 2021. our supply chain backlogs, and labor shortages. how's on the chrome? do you think not the supply chain back on its heels and what's going to happen to consumer prices and wages for 2022? absolutely, supply chain issues are probably front incentives. one of the biggest issues, and i think on the con, will have an impact on the supply chain. that said, i don't think the effect will be as large as it was when we have a delta wave. i think manufacturing companies and factories of adapted to big increases in the toby variance and so on. but nevertheless, as we do have restrictions in multiple countries, they'll be restrictions at ports and so on. that that at the margin will have an impact on the supply chain. as a whole, i'd also add that china itself tends to be a bit more aggressive in dealing with outbreaks off cove it. so if china was to lock down ports or cities associated with the important factories and that will have an impact on the supply chain. so yes, it will have an impact on the supply chain, but not as much as it did before. yeah,

russia. let's just stay with china because china's economy bounce back from the pandemic in 2020 but it weakened in the 3rd quarter of 2021. what do you think went wrong with china and what risks doesn't face in the year ahead? do you think a couple of fact of the china so that you can actually mentioned the handle of the enemy pretty well in 2020 and at a stronger cover doesn't 20 as well in 2021. you know, given the fact that china has pretty much as you go forward, a policy in terms of, you know, keeping, with cases extremely low of i know what the large number of cases or breaks the. obviously i don't, you don't exempt infect diesel. all sorts of hassle she was in place, which really impacted growth this years. if you look at retail, says the white being pretty much across the board this year because of these institutions that have been in place. and also of course, if you look at some of the other developments in china and speak with the tech, don't just have been with us almost one year now, which affected the world and sentiment in china and also other sectors. like, for example, those just in construction,

the government has gone on pretty hard on that goes with the spectrum, kind of is also affecting the auto g people because the, those it is a large part of the economy in china. so these are some of the headwind, the phase this year. but i think if you look at, in general, you know, just the size, the trying to call me this is a psychological and being over, you know, as the transitions of a strong high growth. busy infrastructure lead model. busy into him also, this is lashed consumption model. there will be some or a long delay. but that does not mean that your child is going to see a significant slowed on very on the war into a global economy, common pressure. because i think if you look at extra expectations for growth, about 5 percent for the next couple of years, i think that's where he's the bill for the sales manager, call me him. and let me ask you a question about china. i mean, could china's economic worries be beneficial? do you think to smaller economies? because cobra 19 indeed has highlighted the risk of concentrating supply chains in china, hasn't it? of course. and i mean, latin america has

a huge role to play for potential near shoring for us manufacturers. right. and that was the bus word since the beginning of the pandemic, right? could companies relocate to the region, but that doesn't come, you know, without its own challenges around logistical infrastructure, around human rights issues, which are also prevalent in latin america and around the cost of doing business in the region and the bureaucracy and overcoming some of those country risks of investing in latin america. so of course there's, you know, a strong emphasis from words and governments, particularly those with very close commercial links to the united states and with existing manufacturing infrastructure to increase on that. but this will be a very uneven development in terms of which countries from benefits or not from near assuring as a result of the supply chain disruption. yeah, i believe so. let's talk about the u. s. then because president biden is facing the highest inflation levels in around for 2 years or so,

will the fed be able to bring rates down the how can i quickly do that? well indeed, present button has face the big inflation challenge. and unlike previous instances, i do think the administration, the bargaining ministration has been partly responsible for, for the high inflation rate. but we are seeing in the u. s. and i think the central bank only has a limited role or, or less been impacted with it, as one would think on the level of inflation. because as we talked about earlier, supply chain issues are one of the biggest issues in causing inflation and what called the supply chain issues. partly was to do with the fiscal stimulus that the president, my biden, and his administration implemented over the course of 2021, which led to a huge increase in demand for consumer goods at a time when the supply issues. then some way these policies were big contributing factors towards inflation rather than interest rates by the fed. so i think more more supply chain issues will be the key to for coughing,

inflation of the course of 2022 rather than what the central bank does. ok, and so have an a, how could interest rates then affect emerging markets and how would they deal of debt, especially when we could see a sharp rise in the cost of capital? yes, absolutely. i mean, we're already seeing it with, you know, expectations of us rate hikes, impacting currencies across latin america with significant falls on on currencies. and the reality is that central banks in the region have also a very limited toolbox because of the size of the, you know, of them off the books economy in the region. so even when they talk monetary tools to try to contain inflation or to protect their own currencies, those only have limited impact. and i think, you know, the supply chain disruptions that we're talking about here in the law mention also impacted latin america feeding into inflation. not only because of the expansionary

measures that most central banks took during the initial response to the pandemic. but also because it was very hard to maintain logistical rocha into the region. russia, let me bring you in quickly here. just a, just a thought on china again because china says it will focus on stabilizing its economy for 2022. can it's a cheap that, or will it struggle to achieve any sort of meaningful economic growth for 2022? well, absolutely. i mean, if you look at all the economic indicators they've been, you know, showing us stored on or the last couple of years. and even the, you know, some of the comments we made that policy makers have been that they'll be for fiscal and monetary policy support. busy you know, sort of go to close in 22. and also if you, if you remember that, you know, china went through the end of the going to the end and labanic and everybody. well . so they didn't really have to come up with any major fiscal amante's or. busy it doesn't 20 compared to some of the logic. one reason like the u. s. of the u. k. so that if you have enough room, joyce, or board modernity,

and also kind of space to support both in 2022 and bill i, let's bring you back in here because you're in london's, let's talk about the situation in europe. inflation. is it not? it's, it's, it's challenging european central banks could do if he governments then, perhaps winding down this stimulus packages. i think we will. and if we take the euro area and e b as essentially b did have its own q program, like we've seen around the world, it's called pat. and that's likely to be wound down by february of march of 2022. but they're likely to extend that q program into, by expanding another q program. they have called the asset purchase program a t p. and at the same time, it's very unlikely that e, c, b will raise interest rates unlike the fed. and the reason for that is the c, b has been scarred in the past by raising interest rates when inflation has spite of the back of supply chain issues. so, so i think europe does have an inflation problem. it's partly to do the global supply chain issues. it's partly to do with high oil prices,

but i don't think the c b will respond as aggressively as other central banks. i'm him it out many latin american central banks followed brazil and increase their test rates. what are the risks involved briefly to the region by raising rates? and i mean, how can governments protect the occurrences? well, i mean, the, the key risk is, is actually that governments are reacting very quickly, but they may be unable to use rates just to contain inflation. and we're looking at record levels of inflation in over a decade in most of the large economies. and i would say in terms of, you know, protecting the currency again, very limited tool box and major economies. i would watch brazil in 2022 simply because the, the got the countries heading into a general election with high inflation rates potential for discontent. and of course the rail having had

a turbulent 2021. so i think that's the market to watch in terms of currency. so, so let's just move the discussion on to big tech bill. i'll, let's bring your back in here because china has pretty much tamed. it's tech giants like alibaba and dd, but western tech companies like facebook and google for instance, are still fighting with the regulators. aren't they? will 2022. do you think c, western tech giants coming to more regulatory pressure? you think? i do think there will be much more regulatory pressure from especially the west and also the europeans against tech companies. to some extent, will the chinese have done against loss. tech companies is what many people, many critics of tech companies, what the u. s. to do. so the chinese have tamed many chinese tech companies in terms of how the whole day when so on. the difference though, in the case of the u. s. is that the tech genes are very powerful and they have very large market cap. they're very influential, politically. and in some, some extent they're viewed as examples of the u. s. success story. so while i think

the u. s. will try to tame them. it will be very hard for them to actually implement regulations that will curtail that ability to expand that businesses. the europeans, on the other hand, i think, will continue to implement policies at local i to constrain tech companies unforeseen. let's talk to you now about renewable energy because the rest of the world is starting to make the shift to renewables and that's much harder. is it not for developing nations who don't have the money? they haven't got the technology. what kind of progress you think we'll see in climate policies to help poor countries do thing? i think if you look at, you know, developing markets and he assured this part of the world, i mean them going towards some movie energy projects, for example, focusing on investing in no wind power. busy and in also follow doesn't only days because like you mentioned, the cost more to transition from or socialism to energy is quite high for many of these countries. so yes, there's an initiative that doesn't take time at the same time. if you keep in mind that many was gone, is a bring by 6 percent the same percent every year annually boss pandemic. also,

they were to buy a lot of the same dam. i know for them putting up, you know, a whole lot of land is obviously much cheaper and makes much more economic sense. and the st of either the same time is investing in g energy. so yes, it'll take some time. but then we make making the only moves and also for example, electric vehicles. i mean that's a big team in the restaurants on china, but also other in other parts of asia. for example, in del. busy on the southeast asia and the again the cost the cost involved. busy to transition to levy's or open energy him and the other big story, of course is crypto currencies. they've had a big year. we saw el salvador become the 1st country to adopt bitcoin as legal, tender. let me ask you, are crypto coming sees an opportunity or a danger for latin america? you think? i think it provides an opportunity for countries, governments that want to use them out with a politically motivated goal. and i think that's, you know, we're seeing that clearly without salvatore. we have seen other moves in the region

with intentions to adopt the crypt currencies to avoid transactions in us dollars. and of course, you know, i think this is very much linked to the political changes that seeing in the region and the return of governments that are potentially trying to use, you know, the us china competition to move away from us influence. and so i think that is that will be key and determining how crypt currencies behave in latin american, the future, it will be ideologically motivated yet. and bill, our regulators have been trying to re encrypt. so we're looking to launch their own centralized digital currencies. tech companies like amazon and facebook are talking about launching their own virtual occurrences. how do you think briefly this 3 way fight will play out in 20? 22. i think if we stepped back for moment crypto markets have become much larger and much more st. polish, so i think to some extent, to ginnie's out of 3rd bottle now, and we'll see, you know,

a growth in all of these markets quite aggressively. i do think that the, the crypto market themselves outside of los private companies will probably end up doing the best to some extent they'll see the fastest growth. i think they'll be big regulatory challenges against large tech companies like facebook, launching their own currencies. and that's with central banks. i think just the nature of central banks who tend to be quite cautious. they'll have review launching the own digital currencies, but i think they'll take a lot longer to actually implement them. and instead it will be smaller countries, whether it's in latin america, others that will probably be the pioneers of launching central bank, digital digital currencies. russia, in terms of the growth in the digital economy. what are the opportunities then for asian countries? and will it benefit from a shift in supply chains? do you think those of the, you know, digital economy or the shippers, the digital combination countries, you know, also try and i think the opportunities use because the, the base is so small. i mean, the generation levels and the smartphone, but it was only increasing in many market a philippines, indonesia. so it's a, so a lot is the going from. so i think opportunity is used for many of these loc as

and also many of these markets. so economies of any cash buyers and the, and the band and because obviously change because you know, the last for me and you know, 24 months as you can see more, you know, more consumer as issues go on language is, is, are doing many of the transitions online, so i think is a massive opportunity for many asian countries on to the extent of georgia sector and also from the supply chain distribution perspective. i think that's a big t boned so that his father will because that only that began much before the banner began. that's only was when you can actually read going forward as well. let me, let me get a final quick thought from all of you before we wrap things up. and bill our, let me ask you, does the road to global economic recovery start with equal access to vaccines? and i'll be looking at economic bloom or doom for 2022. well, i do agree, i do think vaccines hold a key to managing or ending the pandemic and equal access will be critical. because as we've seen over 2021 variance emerging all sorts of countries that if they don't have the vaccine themselves, will end up spreading to richer countries. so i do think, you know,

vaccine equality will be key to, to dealing with a pandemic in terms of doom and gloom for the economy. i do think 2022 will be a very challenging year for, for growth. we're going to be seeing the fed raising interest rates. i think i think it has lots of challenges on its growth model. so i think it will be more on the, on the downside risk side, him not very quickly, equal access to vaccines. is that the key as bell is saying, and i'm looking at bloom or do for 2022. i think absolutely equal access to that scene is crucial. and not just in terms of countries, but regionally with those countries. that's in america. having major challenges geographically getting to most at risk populations in terms of the economy for the region. i think it's more of a blue be picture with the expectations we had in 2020 while actually not being bad at the region, struggling to return to growth. so russia, i'll leave you with the final thought, then,

is it blue more doom for 2022 and is access to vaccines. the key here for economic recovery with respect to actually, and i think in this part of the world, especially emerging market station vaccine access increased significantly on the last line of months. so you will see that extension is increase quite significantly pretty much across the board in the silver should actually have become. busy an issue in 2022. so he has other concerns about inflation, about fundraising rates. is that something that should be known for quite some time now? so i don't see any significant issue of growth if you ones coming off a pretty low is going to be a pretty strong growth issue at all. well, we have to leave it there. that's all we have time for. thank you to all our guests below have fees him and blanco and decide. thank you very much indeed for your time . and that's it for all show this week. but remember, you can get in touch with us via twitter. use the hashtag a j c t c. when you do or drop us an email counting the cost of al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you on line of al jazeera dot com slash ctc.

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