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protests, kathy president says he's authorized his forces to fire without warning of him for a c, a walker explains the significance of the national security chief dismissal. his departure today really cements this idea that catch him jaw much so kaya the president of capstone is, is purging the government. this system, the elite, of all those figures who owed allegiance to the former president nozzle turned as a by that it's really quite an extraordinary picture. and it difficult to explain in a nick, but inside an enigma why this would, would have happened. but this really explains the dog nature of cassock, politics, internal politics? fuck his sons. interior ministry says at least 16 people have frozen to death as they try to watch the country's 1st snowfall with winter. many in a northern region had ignored warnings, advising them not to go outside. india has recorded more than 840000 you

daily, coven, 19 cases. and you 7 month high, the capital new delhi is among the worse it regions and is under curfew. your con, variance is now dominant across other cities. travelers arriving in the country will need to quarantine at home for a week. court documents have revealed tennis, so novak joke of it tested positive for cove with 19 last month. and his lawyer say that's why he had a vaccine exemption to enter stray liam. joke of it was denied entry after landing in melbourne this week to play in the australian open. he's now been detained in a melbourne hotel, and 3 white men who chased and murdered 25, rolled black, jogger amador bri in the us. state of georgia have been sentenced to life in prison . 2 of the de sac vengeance will serve their sentence without the possibility of parole. and that's you up to date. stay with us here on al jazeera counting,

the cost is up next. ah, which is 0? which is a you oh, i hello, i'm darren jordan. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics. this week, 2021 a year of economic recovery, but also a year of supply chain bottlenecks. soaring inflation and omicron. so would it be

a bumpy road in the next 12 months, or will it be a year of progress? also this week a downturn and the property sector and energy supply crunch and subdued consumption . john is economy ground to a whole, towards the end of 2021 critic say it could hit a great bull. so when it too big to be ignored by the financial establishment crypto currencies of hit 3 trillion dollars in value and are now becoming mainstream. will the virtual money see a big year again in 2022. ah. now mass vaccinations progressing, antiviral drugs and eased restrictions. 2021 has proved opportunity for many countries to reverse economic losses caused by the pandemic. but opening up businesses and going back to normal life has brought new breast setbacks to such as the rising cost of living. despite the challenges, hopes are running high for the new year until the army kron variant and access to vaccines. change the calculus once again. so wants to come in 2022. well,

let's have a look 1st at what define 2021 from china, the world's factory to the biggest port in california ships queued at harbors, overwhelmed with a rise in demand supply chains tightened. either because of the shortage of goods or people to deliver them. natural gas, oil and other fuel markets was squeezed driving in the energy crisis, particularly in europe, eating homes and driving cars became very costly. with that came soaring inflation, that's curbing the purchasing power of people on low wages. the u. s. has seen its worst monthly inflation numbers. in almost 40 years. many governments have been scratching their heads of a monetary policy is to tackle the problems among the options are raising interest rates and winding down stimulus packages. well, for china, it was not just a problem of supply chains and the energy crunch. it's property sector is at risk to with real estate giant ever grand. on the verge of collapse,

china's economic growth weakened in the 3rd quarter of 2021 president, she sion ping's critic say new rules to control the amount owed by big real estate developers. the crackdown on tech companies and celebrities at proven costly for the economy. well, china and other countries also busy trying to tame crypto currencies, while pushing plans to issued their own digital coins. meanwhile, bitcoin and others were going big, even with a volatile market. the virtual currencies of hit 3 trillion dollars, and most importantly, they've gone mainstream with many international investors, embracing them. so there's lots to unpack with our panel of experts from london below. how fees micro hi, chief executive from the town. i've been out. medina, pueblo in spain, him and blanco research director and had a risk insights. america at various maple craft and from hong kong, russia decide fund manager at asia frontier capitol. welcome all to the program. but let me start with you. if i may,

i mean on the chrome seems to be the buzzword at the moment. do you think governments are reacting to every twist and turn of the pandemic can all be going to see more adaptation policies as the pandemic changes? well, i do think governments are reacting very dynamically around be on the kron variant . and it's interesting that different countries are responding differently. so for example, what we have seen is in continental europe, a governments have been very aggressive and introducing locked down measures requirements vaccine possible, and then use the u. k. on the other hand, initially was fairly relaxed and as the, the cases have gone up, they've started to introduce more aggressive measures. then on the other side, you have the u. s, which essentially is minimizing the risk off on the cross and not really introducing any additional measures beyond recommendations to have the bank seen. so we often government response, but it varies depending which part of the world that we're in. yeah, him and what about latin america?

how is the pandemic impacting economies that do you think? well, i mean, i think with latin america, there's very few tools left to be used tried because the region responded in such a draconian manner during 2020 and early 2021. that actually implementing many of the same measures that western europe is, is taking, would be socially, economically and politically very difficult. i mean, economically, the region was the hardest hit of any region in the world and recovery prospects are slimming down. so if we think about, you know, some economies will return to pre plan that make g d p levels in 2023. but that's the best case scenario. we have economies that are looking at a potential another last decade. so that has huge social impacts. governments aren't able to dictate quarantine and school closures, like they did in 2020. and also we have crucial elections in 2022 with some of the,

the biggest democracies in the region going to the paul's. so thinking about how pandemic measures can impact incumbents or traditional political leads is clearly front and center of any government decision. the region does have one advantage at the moment, which is south america is in, in the southern hemisphere, summer. so cases are lower and age and rates are lower than they were in the north and were sure what, what's the full cost them for growth in asia. i mean, will on the chrome have more impact there as countries like south korea, for instance, impose tighter pandemic restrictions when if you look at most of the developing markets, initial emerging markets, an issue, i think with respect to the band and the on the, on the convert into a future variance. i think most of the governments in the region have basically decided to live with the widest given the fact that you are in to be a rental authority off the of the vendor makes you had pretty strict restrictions and doesn't get on. so for large budget doesn't $21.00 of those little logical only

goes across across markets in asia, for example, india and vietnam and thailand as well. and at the same time you for vaccination rates of increase significantly across pretty much most countries in the world. for example, vietnam and highland of exhibition of population of 60 percent. so that actually has been the open of the gone because the man is doing much better as, as long as in horse prospect. vision levels under control and things are not, you know, as bad as well. the $1021.00 for the dividend of it. and i think most economies will manage situation. they won't be locked on a, on a large scale because the going to cause it too high. so i think we'll see pretty strong and go into 1022 of almost markets in emerging markets. an issue. so below the big issue in 2021. our supply chain backlogs, and labor shortages. how's on the chrome, do you think not the supply chain back on its heels, and what's going to happen to consumer prices and wages for 2022? absolutely, supply chain issues are probably front incentives. one of the biggest issues, and i think on the con, will have an impact on the supply chain. that said,

i don't think the effect will be as large as it was when we had the delta wave. i think manufacturing companies and factories of adapted to big increases in the covariance and so on. but nevertheless, as we do have restrictions in multiple countries, they'll be restrictions at ports and so on. that at the margin will have an impact on the supply chain as a whole. i'd also add that china itself tends to be a bit more aggressive in dealing with outbreaks off co, they'd. so if china was to lock down port, so cities associated with the important factories and that will have an impact on the supply chain. so yes, it will have an impact on the supply chain, but not as much as it did before. yeah, russia, let's just stay with china because china's economy bounce back from the pandemic in 2020 but it weakened in the 3rd quarter of 2021. what do you think went wrong with china and what risks does it face in the year ahead? do you think a couple of fact of the china so that you can actually mentioned that hadn't

happened to me pretty well in 2020 and at a stronger going doesn't 20 as well in 2021. you know, given the fact that china has pretty much as you know, with a policy in terms of, you know, keeping, with cases extremely low of, i know that a large number of cases or breaks the obviously shut down. you know, for example, fact, diesel all social high school. she was in place, which really impacted growth this years. if you could reduce is the big, pretty much across the board this year because of these institutions which have been in place. and also of course, if you look at some of the other developments in china and can speak with the tech, don't just have been in the past almost one year now, which the effect of the world and sentiment in china and also other sectors. like, for example, those just in construction the government has gone on pretty hard on that centers, whatever the spectrum kind of is also affecting the auto g people because the, those it is a large part of the economy in china. so these are some of the headwinds to face this year, but i think if you look at, in general, you know, just the size, the trying to call me this is a psychological to be global. busy you know,

as the transitions of a strong high growth. busy infrastructure led more. busy into more so this is lash consumption model. there will be some or a long delayed, but then it's not being that your child is going to see a significant slowed on very no, we're in dire, global economy will come out of pressure. because i think if you look at extra expectations for growth, about 5 percent for the next couple of years, i think that's where he's the bill for the sales manager, call me him. and let me ask you a question about china. i mean, could china's economic worries be beneficial? do you think to smaller economies? because cobra 19 indeed is highlighted, the risk of concentrating supply chains in china, hasn't it? of course. and i mean, latin america has a huge role to play for potential near shoring for us manufacturers. right. and that was the buzzword since the beginning of the pandemic, right? could companies relocate to the region, but that doesn't come, you know, without its own challenges around logistical infrastructure,

around human rights issues, which are also prevalent in latin america and around the cost of doing business in the region and the bureaucracy and overcoming some of those country risks of investing in latin america. so of course there's, you know, a strong emphasis from words and governments, particularly those with very close commercial links to the united states and with existing manufacturing infrastructure to increase on that. but this will be a very uneven development in terms of which countries some benefits or not from near assuring as a result of the supply chain disruption. yeah, i believe so. let's talk about the u. s. then because president biden is facing the highest inflation levels in around 40 years or so, will the fed be able to bring rates down the how can i quickly do that? well indeed, present button has face the big inflation challenge. and unlike previous instances, i do think the administration, the bargaining ministration has been partly responsible for, for the high inflation rate. but we are seeing in the u. s. and i think the central

bank only has a limited role or, or less been impacted with it, as one would think on the level of inflation. because as we talked about earlier, supply chain issues on one of the biggest issues in causing inflation and what called the supply chain issues partly was to do with the fiscal stimulus that the president might biden. and his administration implemented over the course of 2021, which led to a huge increase in demand for consumer goods at a time when the supply issues, then some way these policies were big contributing factors towards inflation rather than interest rates by the fed. so i think more more supply chain issues will be the key to forecasting inflation of the course of 2022 rather than what the central bank does. ok, and so have an a, how could interest rates then affect emerging markets and how would they deal of debt, especially when we could see a sharp rise in the cost of capital? yes, absolutely. i mean, we're already seeing it with, you know,

expectations of us rate hikes, impacting currencies across latin america with significant false on on currencies. and the reality is that central banks in the region have also a very limited toolbox because of the size of the, you know, of the, off the books economy in the region. so even when they had top monetary tools to tried to contain inflation or to protect their own currencies, those only have limited impact. and i think, you know, the supply chain disruptions that we're talking about here. and the law mention also impacted latin america feeding into inflation. not only because of the expansionary measures that most central banks are so during the initial response to the pandemic. but also because it was very hard to maintain logistical okay into the region. i'm russia, let me bring you in quickly here, just a, just a thought on china again, because china says it will focus on stabilizing its economy for 2022 county to

achieve that, or would it struggle to achieve any sort of meaningful economic growth for 2022 will absolutely. i mean, if you look at all the economic indicators they've been, you know, showing a stored on or the last couple of quarters. and even the, you know, some of the comments made by policy makers have been that there will be for fiscal and monetary policy support. busy you know, sort of go to close in 22. and also if you, if you remember that, you know, china went through the band and we're going to pretty sorry for that and, and look at the end of it very well. so they didn't really have to come up, come up with any major fiscal monty support in 2020 compared to some of the logic. one reason like the rest of the u. k. so that they have enough room droids on board modernity. and also my kind of space to support both in 2022 and bill are let's bring you back in here because you're in london's, let's talk about the situation in europe. inflation. is it not? it's, it's, it's challenging. european central banks producing governments then perhaps winding down this stimulus packages. i think we will,

if we take the euro area in the c b as essentially the city did have its own q program, like we've seen around the world. it's called tap. and that's likely to be wound down by february of march of 2022. but they're likely to extend that to programming to by expanding another q program. they have called the asset purchase program a t p. and at the same time, it's very unlikely that e, c, b will raise interest rates on like the fed. and the reason for that is the c, b has been scarred in the past by raising interest rates when inflation is spite of the back of supply chain issues. so, so i think europe does have a inflation problem. it's partly to do the global supply chain issues as partly to do with high oil prices, but i don't think the c b will respond as aggressively as other central banks and pamela, many latin american central banks followed brazil and increase their interest rates . what are the risks involved briefly to the region by raising rates? and i mean, how can government protect the occurrences?

well, i mean, the, the key risk is, is actually that governments are reacting very quickly, but they may be unable to use rates just to contain inflation. and we're looking at a record levels of inflation in over a decade in most of the large economies. and i would say in terms of, you know, protecting the currency again, very limited tool box and major economies. i would watch brazil in 2022 simply because the, the got the countries heading into a general election with high inflation rates potential for this content. and of course, the rail having had a turbulent 2021. so i think that's the market to watch in terms of currency. so, so let's just move the discussion on to big tech bill or let's bring you back in here because china has pretty much tamed. it's tech giants like ali baba and dd, but western tech companies like facebook. a google, for instance, are still fighting with the regulators. aren't they?

will 2022. do you think c, western tech giants come under more regulatory pressure? you think? i do think there will be much more regulatory pressure from, especially in the west and also the europeans against tech companies. to some extent, will the chinese have done against loss. tech companies is what many people, many critics of tech companies, what the us to do. so the chinese have tamed many chinese tech companies in terms of how they whole dates when so on. the difference though, in the case of the u. s. is that the tech shines are very powerful and they have very large market cap. they're very influential, politically. and in some, some extent they are viewed as examples of the us success story. so while i think the u. s. will try to same then it'll be very hard for them to actually implement regulations that will curtail that ability to expand that businesses. the europeans . on the other hand, i think will continue to implement policies that local i to constrain tech companies and brazil. let's talk to you now about renewable energy because the rest

of the world is starting to make the shift to renewables and that's much harder. is it not for developing nations who don't have the money? they haven't got the technology. what kind of progress do you think we'll see in climate policies to help poor countries? do you think? i think if you look at, you know, delving markets an issue with this part of the world. i mean, i'm going to add some movie in energy projects for example, focusing on investing in no wind power. busy and in also follow, it doesn't only days because like you mentioned, the boston mall transition from fossil fuels on to energy is quite high for many of these countries. so yes, there's an initiative, but doesn't take time at the same time. if we keep in mind that many was going to bring by 6 percent percent percent every year annually post pandemic, also they would require a lot of the same time. i know for them putting up a whole lot of involve line is obviously much cheaper and makes much more common sense of the st. of. i've seen them as investing in energy. so yes, it will take some time, but they may make making the moves. and also, for example, electric vehicles. i mean it's a big team in the west and also in china,

but also other in other parts of asia. for example, in dell, all. busy of the above the southeast asia, so he didn't think of in the cost the cost involved. busy to transition to ease, oh, he managed him and the other big story, of course is crypto currencies. they've had a big year, we saw el salvador become the 1st country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender. let me ask you all crypto currency as an opportunity or danger for latin america you. i think it provides an opportunity for countries, governments that want to use them with a politically motivated goal. and i think that's, you know, we're seeing that clearly without salvatore. we have seen other moves in the region with intention to adopt the crypt currencies to avoid transactions in, in us dollars. and of course, you know, i think this is very much linked to the political changes that we're seeing in the region and the return of governments that are potentially trying to use, you know, the us china competition to move away from u. s. influence. and so i think that is,

that will be key in determining how crypt currencies behave in latin american, the future, it will be ideological motivated. yeah. and bill our regulators have been trying to re encrypt, so we're looking to launch their own centralized digital currencies. tech companies like amazon and facebook are talking about launching their own virtual occurrences . how do you think briefly this 3 way 5 will play out in 20? 22. i think if we step back for a moment crypto markets have become much larger and much more bullish. so i think to some extent the genie is out of the bottle now and we'll see, you know, a growth in all of these markets quite aggressively. i do think that the, the crit to market themselves outside of los product companies will probably end up doing the best to some extent. they'll see the fastest growth. i think they'll be big regulate re challenges against large tech companies like facebook launch can own currencies, and that's with central banks. i think just the nature of central banks who tend to

be quite cautious. they'll review launching their own digital currencies. but i think they'll take a lot longer to actually implement them. and instead it will be smaller countries, whether it's in latin america, others that will probably be the pioneers of launching central bank, digital digital currencies. russia, in terms of the growth in the digital economy. what are the opportunities then, asian countries them will benefit from a shift in supply chains? do you think those of the, you know, to economy or the ship to the digital recombination countries? you know, also try and i think the opportunities use because the, the base is sort of small. i mean, the generation levels and the smartphone partition that was only using many markers, like in germany, a philippines, indonesia. so it's, is there a lot is that going from so i think opportunities huge for many of these markets and also many of these markets all. busy economies of any cash buyers and the, and the band. and because obviously change because you will be the last of 84 months. and so the more you know, more consumers is shipping to online purchases or many other transactions online. so i think it's a mass of opportunity for many asian countries on to the center. and so from the

supply chain distribution perspective, i think that's a big table to look at this part of the world. because that on that began much before the band began, that's only when you can actually read going forward as well. let me, let me get a final quick thought from all of you before we wrap things up. bill are let me ask you, does the road to global economic recovery start with equal access to vaccines? and i'll be looking at economic bloom or doom for 2022. well, i do agree, i do think vaccines hold a key to managing or ending the pandemic and equal access will be critical. because as we've seen over 2021 variants emerging all sorts of countries that if they don't have the vaccine themselves, will end up spreading to richer countries. so i do think, you know, vaccine equality will be key to, to dealing with a pandemic in terms of doom and gloom for the economy. i do think 2022 will be a very challenging year for, for growth. we're going to be seeing the fed raising interest rates. i think it has lots of challenges on its growth model. so i think it will be more on the,

on the downside risk side, him not very quickly, equal access to vaccines. is that the key as bell is saying, and i'll be looking at bloom or do for 2022. i think absolutely equal access to lexi is crucial and not just in terms of countries, but regionally with those countries. that's in america. having major challenges geographically getting to most at risk populations in terms of the economy for the region. i think it's more of a glue be picture ah, with the expectations we had in 2020 while actually not being bad at the reach and struggling to return to growth. so russia, i'll leave you with a final thought, then. is it bloom or doom for 2022 and is access to vaccines? the key here for economic recovery, where with respect to waxing, i think in this part of the world, especially in emerging markets, fisher vaccine access increased significantly over the past later months. and so you would see that stationary increase quite significantly pretty much across the

board in to see if we should actually have the club. busy in asia, in 2022. so he has concerns about inflation, about the fundraising rates. is that something should be known for? why doesn't i have no, i don't see any significant should tons of good because if you ones coming off a pretty low is going to be pretty strong growth. felicia, what all you got on? well, we have to leave it there. that's all we have time for. thank you to all our guests bill, our fees, him an blanco and russia decide. thank you very much indeed for your time. and that's it for all show this week. but remember, you can get in touch with us via twitter, use the hashtag a j c t c. when you do or drop us an email, counting the cost down to 0 dot net is our address. but as more for you online at al jazeera dot com slash ctc, that'll take you straight to our page, which as individual reports, links an entire episode for you to catch up on that sit for this edition of counting the cost. i'm darn jordan from the whole team here. thanks for joining us . the news and al jazeera is next

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