in government declared those responsible for the deadly attacks terrorists and says, there can be 2 more troops and equipment to end the bloodshed. oh, hulu. all wood with only the liver. but that's little comfort for survivors of the massacres in the villages, in my juris north was priority now survival while crying to find crozier our losses that don't seem to stop edris al jazeera is entre north west nigeria. ah, this is our to see,

we're these all the headlines. buckingham palace says prince sanjay has given up all military titles and patronage is this comes after a judge in the us ruled on weapons states a lawsuit, keys, and prince andrew sexual abuse will move forwards. virginia jeffrey says she was 17 years old when she was traffic to have sex with the u. k. while and other men. the palace says prince andrew will defend the case as a private citizen. he strenuously denies all allegations. a protest has been killed in sudan during the day of rallies against the military or as earlier, a senior military official was killed during those protests in khartoum. thousands, 6 in the streets against the crew that has plunged the country into political crisis. the situation remains deadlocked. a former syrian intelligence officer has been sentenced to life in prison in germany. the courts convicted unworthy lun for crimes against humanity for abuses at a detention center in damascus between 20112012. russian led forces

of stanford withdrawing from casks done following the worst and rest and decades. the 3 lights will be complete. within 10 days, more than a 160 people were killed during the unrest. poland says talks to defuse the crisis . any sin ukraine have yet to receive a breakthrough through a c meeting and vienna's the latest round of negotiations this week to try to deescalate tensions between moscow and give you as president joe biden has unveiled new federal steps to fight the omicron variance of the corona virus include sending military medical personnel to hospitals to help deal with the surge of cove. with 19 cases. teachers in france have walked off the job in a nationwide strike to protest against the government's handling of corona virus. they say the measures in place don't go far enough to protect them, and that's year to date. keep it here on al jazeera, the news continues after inside story,

which is up next. ah ah, it's a meeting reminiscence of the cold war era, nato and russia. thompson, brussels with relations said to be at a critically low level. so exactly what does the site actually one is an on conflicts now likely for does diplomacy still have a chance? this is inside story. ah

hello and welcome to the program. i'm pete adobe. a high stakes meeting between russia and the north atlantic treaty organization, nato, over ukraine ended without a breakthrough. politicians and military men from both sides said significant differences remained during what they described as frank and open discussions. more talks are underway, but failing to reach an understanding means the risk of armed conflict in europe is very real. the u. s. and nato have been increasingly concerned about a russian military build up near the border with ukraine. the arrival of more than $100000.00 soldiers and tanks, artillery and long range rocket units prompted fears about a ground invasion. the russian president vladimir putin has repeatedly denied that while also wanting nato, against expanding near its border. both nato and the u. s. rejected the kremlin demands on security among them a guarantee that nato will not accept crane and other former soviet nations as

members. this crisis is a, it's, it's a making of russia. and therefore, it is important that they deescalate ukraine has the right to self defense. that's enshrined and un a founding shorter angle for so many dollars when they need dollars, and that'll help them to uphold that. right. to, to self defense together, the united states and our nato allies made clear, we will not slam the door shut on nato's open door. policy, a policy that has always been central to the nato alliance. if fresh walks away, however, it will be quite a parent. they were never serious about pursuing diplomacy at all. that is why collectively we are preparing forever for every eventuality. rushes deputy foreign minister said nato's position is unacceptable for moscow not,

but it was the realization that we just need to opt for the policy of deterring russia. we will respond with measures of contra deterrence. if it uses the policy of intimidation, we will respond with contra intimidation. if it looks for vulnerabilities in the russian defense system. we will look when nate, those vulnerabilities. it's not our choice, but we don't have other options. if we don't overturn this current very dangerous course of events, the tension between nato and moscow can be traced to the crimean peninsula where russia has one of his most important naval bases. in 2014 ukraine's pro russian government was topple. following months of protests, russia responded by seizing control the crimea. pro russian separatists then declared independence internet sc and landscape. after a referendum was held that triggered the conflict between ukraine and the separatists. just wanted to see sy agreed. uminski. sporadic fighting has never really stopped. in 2016 nato deployed battle groups to baltic states and poland in response to the annexation of crimea. the latest tension started last year when

russia mobilized 100000 soldiers near its border with ukraine. ah, okay, there we are. here we go. let's bring in our guests joining us from brussels. we have theresa fallon, director of the center of fort russia, europe, asia studies in moscow. we have pavel falcon, how at he's a defensive military analyst, and in our slope we have glen decent. he's a professor of international relations at the university of south eastern norway. welcome to you all teresa coming to you. first, is this a moment of truth in the relationship between russia and nato? i think there's a giant sigh of relief that meeting actually took place because russia, there were rumors that they might not even have the meeting with nato. if that meeting in geneva with the u. s. didn't go so well. so it's a promising sign that they actually had the meeting at the person. they've done it in 2 years. and the meeting lasted longer than anticipated by an extra hour. but there are 2 problems. now we have the problem. ukraine tend to,

they're extremely high, and it's clear according to wendy sermon and her press conference yesterday, that nato is not willing to shut the door. they're going to maintain their open door policy and it's up to countries that they really want to apply to nato. this, they're leaving the door open and this is something that president putin has been clear that he was a treaty outlining that neither ukraine nor ga could ever join nato. so this is something, i don't know how they're going to get around. so this is kind of an intractable point right now, and many analysts have wondered, did put, make these mass melissa request to see how much he would get in return. so this is a, i wasn't clear about what prudent is doing. he has it, we have fallen if, if his demands include all, you are the country that join nato was $997.00 would have to leave. and so in many respects what he is doing by surrounding you came with a 100000 soldiers. some haven't seen that as black mel trying to get negotiations,

but others in russell feel that finally were being heard. so it remains to be seen . but the other issue is that is putting miscalculating because in many respects he is creating a backlash. we've seen sweden and finland signal that they were instead of leaving nato, that right now that they're considering joining nato. so instead of decreasing the size of the country, the amount of countries in nato put in inadvertently is actually increased perhaps could be increasing the size of natal pavilion. how in moscow is there a chance that perhaps the feeling in the kremlin, i. e, mister putin settled position on this is, why should nato be allowed to cherry pick from our list of demands? well, that is the official position that russia has been failing before these meetings during these meetings. and also i agree after the meetings that the,

the russian demands should be accepted or else. so now we're at most like we're moving into the or else the time frame. of course, today there's a meeting in the n. no, a seed discussing the same thing in service. there won't be any breakthrough there because that's not the forum where you can get cheve any kind of a compromise or agreement on anything much, at least not in one day. oh, so too many nations they are represented. you need unanimous in the name of the to get anything. so did they, the russian main negotiator, that he did foreign minister survey. that class said that may be right now on the even planning, and the new meetings with america, or with me to or with the west, will be considering our counter measures, which will be military or military technical in nature. that means russia will be

planning military responses to a what a, nate, the rejection by the west of russian demands. aramco said, maybe we'll be deploy, rush military infrastructure to him as well. and cuba, what you said, that's kind of maybe yes, maybe not as just sort of one of the options. okay, so right now russia, bruce considering options on the military technical response to indecent or slope in the us for the united states for mr. blinkin. clearly the idea of either a bilateral or a unilateral deal, self standing self supporting over ukraine, was toxic. it was someplace the us didn't want to go. was that the best attitude and the best approach to have a head of the nato meeting? i know, i think they do have to be some kind of flexibility because the reason why we have this is because we really need a solution to us. what is the european secure security architecture initially had

a lot of deals on this topic. i mean, in the early ninety's, in 19909499 where it has all disagreements on european secure. it will sides agree on the principle of indivisible security. so one shot i should not expand the security expense on the other, but what, blinking, it's reflecting this new argument by nato, which was a real principle of european security. it should be the rights of need to expand. and, and this is the main problem because these 2 principles stay, they're not harmonized. so this is kind of why we have this conflict. do us insist on the rights to expand and insist permit unable to expand in more? so this idea that's not giving an inch to russia is diplomatic to the russians. did not really make much sense. but now,

the only solution left without the diplomatic solution to this time is simply for russia to have to rely on the military to prevent further expansion and adjusting the final note. this is the elevate being made to any security agreements. this was also reflect that other experts are only the rush of funding. i might get this clearly the truth stipulate neighbors should not put the troops in new members. however, now nato secretary general suggest that the natal can discriminate against new and old members. so effectively made to has all this new principles which allow it to actually abide by the european security agreements assigned on to in the past. so it's, it's, it's a stand off and i don't think lincoln: oh yeah, i was able to move this issue forward. and anyway, theresa fallon, in brussels, when pavel in moscow talks about that mister putin considering his options. is this what we're seeing old putin or you can trust him to be

a master of ambiguity if you will, doesn't send out mixed signals, doesn't actually lie. but kind of messes with issues change is, is stands just ever so slightly. so even the big boys of nato and the big boys of european politics can't quite get a grip on where they think he might decide to go next. it's a brilliantly place because as we know, he was a judo master. and so he's always kind of moving around watching where the best weaknesses are and how can you leverage that to his advantage. so i think that that's a perfect example of how is approaching these, these talks with nato. and i think that 1st of all, they try to break european unanimity by demanding bilateral types of the united states. insinuating that the u. s. when talk to the european allies about european security. when do sherman has had over hundreds debriefings before the nato meeting after the meeting with the russians about security in europe. so the europeans are

happy. other nato members are happy. and so if you haven't had to make up for the deficit, for lack of trust in the trump administration. so i think that people almost feel over breach, but i think that they had to do this in order to reassure them. and, you know, i think there's a dictators dilemma going on here because we put, and we know, it least even in the soviet union, you had to pull up your, you had other people making decisions. but we see that the negotiators must go back physically to moscow to get new instructions there. they don't have the ability to negotiate at all. so they're just given, you know, the red lines they put in and then they have to try to give these speaking points. so i think that this really hampers the russian position. and it also creates a lot of concern for countries in eastern europe because their demand they're asking now is, as you pointed out, jen silverberg, they're asking for reassurance because of russian aggression. and so they want troops there, they want more help. so i think that this he put in might have, you know,

seriously miscalculated glen decent back in also the does this come down to the kremlin feeling threatened or feeling that it's increasingly large? sphere of influence is maybe coming on the threat, or do we have to go further back than that? because there was a point when the berlin wall was just about to fall. james baker, the then us secretary of state working for bush, the, the original george bush said to gorbachev. if you're okay with german unification, nito will not expand to the east. i promise you that fast forward to boris yeltsin as russian president, he had a conversation with the polish president like bo answer. and likewise and says, oh, we're thinking about joining nato. boris yeltsin says, yes, absolutely. feel free. and if you look at the map of europe, that's why hitler invaded poland because it's only 60 clicks from berlin to the polish border. and then from poland. you just a straight line, dr. ukraine. well,

i think obviously russel feels very much betrayed from all the broken promises that nato would not expand. and again, it has been well documented. however, i think that the, some of the terminology is quite misleading for some idea that natal continues to just across wants to reassert its real plans, influence insurance and exclusive. so on the influence. however, if you look in places like ukraine, keep in mind that ukraine and russia proposed to the 2013 that let's find a common try natural solution. ukraine so divided, it will make it choose between east or west. breaking the civil war. you have luckily know, and then supported the could there. and so again, and russia has no possibility, any illusions about having exclusive influence in, in the ukraine. what they're trying to prevent is nato from asserting. it's their

influence in ukraine. so russia actually redefined, want to previously called in serious influences, not referring to stairs of interest. if nato is going to start operating on russian borders, it has to recognize that it also has secured the interest there. so moving, for example, nato in to ukraine is russia. they can't make this huge moves without consulting and russia. but obviously, the russia comes from the past. there's a certain similarity between them. the direction that you estimate are moving, which should be a part not to germany. then obviously, all this rhetoric that nato, it's about, you know, only including and embracing countries wants to join it if i mentally and alliance to contain russia and the 3rd tension on it in europe. so i so just on the final point to have to point out when natal offered and nato member 50,

you creating only approximately 20 percent of your operation actually wanted. it was just that, it's not the nato that's pressure to take. you know, this congress wants a joint, it's, it's natural that's pushing for expansion. so again, that the retro, it gets very much skewed. ok. probable felton how. what happens if nature goes for the so called trip wire scenario, which is and there are apparently, according to this vehicle to day, there are people high up in nature saying we should do this. we should build our military up in romania and bulgaria. how would that be perceived in the kremlin ball? not, of course. good. there has been nato has plans to reinforce its eastern flank or eastern front. i don't know. i know where the troops, there's their standing plan of 30 plus 30 plus 30 plus $1330.00 days,

30 battalions. 3rd, the war ships and 30 squadrons of warp way and should be moved to poland, the baltics, and to romania. and maybe bulgaria, though, at present bulgaria, the defense master said about here is not we are interested in a stationing nathan troops doesn't feel it. so threaten doesn't have a connection really to even meet ukraine. talk about russia, but they're romania, poland. the baltic states lower gladly accept more troops. and if you begin moving troops, that's the very serious problem. because next it will take a lot of time to bring say, a tank division from texas to poland or is telling me our romania takes a lot of time and effort. it's a long way by see, by land and for russia to move, it's forces from the po, go region, or he came from, siberia do, it's it's,

it's much shorter. so there's going to could be a scramble who deploy 1st. that's how the 1st world war began and troop movements began before. ringback even the war is declared and anyone crosses the border, you already get into a slippery slope from which she can't easily extract yourself or maybe not at all. okay, get into a spiral of an escalation. ok, i found a need to just to push, you know, because we're heading towards the end of the program, theresa fallon, in brussels. does mister putin want to kind of recreate the old ussr in his image? he's not growling at the baltics because he can't. but if we examine what happened in roger, 2008, the crimea 2014 to day in kazakhstan to day outside, just outside of ukraine. sounds look like a sphere of influence. if it walks like a dark and talks like a duck, hello, it's a russian duck. we have to remember who put in is he's a soviet man,

and he's 70 years old and he's looking at his legacy. and what is he going to be known for? so i think his dream is to kind of re animate is all kind of so be idea and not the union, but to have this massive russia sphere influence. so his moves and cause i son, played on television all across russia. how great russia was. you know, helping their cousin friends and how strong and powerful they were. and i think that, that is with animating this and everyone here knows that you can cannot join the, you know, there is a frozen conflict, not so pros and really in ukraine. so now i cannot accept any country that is in conflict, so neither georgia nor ukraine can possibly join nato who to knows this. and so others are concerned that what he fear is more because he knows he can't join nato with these frozen conflicts. but what he fear is more is a democratic ukraine, right, on its border, and that is deep down what he is very deeply concerned about. so i think that

russia under put in, i mean the next generation will be a very different leadership. so can, can we hold on how long is put in going to stay in power and you mentioned colleagues done. there's a really important lesson that put in, took away from that another to another by, of had kind of a semi retirement. and that we keep him him and his family safe, but he's been removed from power. so put in, took away from that that he can never retire. so he has to keep moving and keep going. it. and there are some, even in moscow talking about we have to inspire the imperial russian movement that will keep our country going. and i think that inside, basically there's a lot of economic issues. yes. to deal with that when decent in the next minute or so. not wishing to be too sensationalistic or, or to prophet of doom about the whole thing. is there a dynamic here that may be nature doesn't understand nato as a long timeline for these discussions. moscow has a short timeline,

and if any one blows it at the talks, russia will invade ukraine. well, i don't think it will in it's out in the the claim to her again. this misrepresentation here, i would define russia to start a school power when it intervened in george, i did not in the dual countries, other expected these, all this them and did it the existing position. it could have been made and you can easily, in 2014, you didn't it on the cemented existing position in crimea, and are you coming from joining need or by, by supporting gong bus it again, nato is a, revisionist, an expansion is our and russia, it's it's simply pushing to hold the status quo. so i think the analysis is somewhat chrome, but you're right, i think and they do is playing by time it's is dragging out negotiations trying to change reality on the grounds. i think rush, we'll see more quick solution if it's not our alternatives. pebble, falcon her in moscow, the last word to you. if nato slash the u. s. does not apply sanctions, is there

a dynamic here that might play to nato's advantage, particularly with reference to ukraine? and as mister putin, mister putin does not have a good track record when it comes to split plate spinning different issues. so he's got his fingerprints on cassock start at the moment. he's got his fingerprints on ukraine. at the moment. he's got his fingerprints on the relationship with nato at the moment. he doesn't have form when it comes to being able to handle more than one big issue at a time. brushing resources are forced, limited crush is not the soviet union, and they're right now russian troops, russia, withdrawing from casa, they demonstrated their, the very heightened state of a work that they are in, but they were rushed. don't, hasn't i have enough troops and passport brains and now they're moving swiftly out . maybe concentrating for a pass, a bow, a grass as the may happened in the west. it's not only ukraine that may be other

things. russia made the poor new miss isles. no longer medium range missiles in a forward positions in crimea in coming in grad may be in bow a rose to can to give in european countries a sense of threat that the russia could been a dead tree for concessions. so in ma'am, i'm afraid we, as we're moving into a situation where the tensions in europe are going to grow, it could be a conflict escalation, ukraine, that could be escalations in other parts. oh, the overall western russian divide. okay. very last word to you, to raise it in brussels. 30 seconds that sold you got where we are at the moment, seems to be between nato and russia. let's agree to disagree. so it's a pretty low bar, but how do they both build on that? assuming that both of them both sides, russia and nato actually want peace in europe, they don't want to conflict. i think that they didn't reach out in olive branch to

rush in stating that they discussed missiles. i think that that's a very key area and i and the russians seem interested in discussing that. so i think that that's an area that they can build on. so discussing bissell, and i think that also they should try to put time into those because it's in russian's interest. china is that involved in any sort of missile discussions, so that could be a win or the world. so i think that this may open up a new chapter in co operation. ok, we have to leave it there. thank you to i guess they were theresa fallon, pavel falcon, howard, and glen decent and thank you to for watching. you can see the show again. any time via the website, i'll just, you know, dot com. and for further discussion to go to our facebook page, not facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle as ever at ha, inside story from me to the family entire team here in doha. thanks for watching. we will see you at the usual time tomorrow for the moment

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