tv Inside Story Al Jazeera January 14, 2022 10:30am-11:00am AST
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let's have all sudden charge. california governor govern, newsome has denied parole for the man who was convicted of the assassination of us presidential candidate, robert kennedy. sir hanser hon. a palestinian refugee has been serving a life sentence for the 968, killing robert kennedy's murder came just 5 years after his brother, president john f. kennedy was shot dead in texas. ah, this is al jazeera, these are the top stories, australia, immigration minister has revoked, tennis down, know that job, which is these are for 2nd time. it was cancelled days ahead of the australia opened tournament. jacob edge who is on vaccinated had his visa revoked last week. but a judge of a turned that ruling. sarah cock has moved from prison. it's taken 4 days now. are for alex hall who holds the discretionary powers that the immigration minister to revoke that visa a 2nd time. now i should state that these discretionary powers means he's quite
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a lot of power when it comes to he can accounts, you'll be on the grounds. he considers you a public wrist or a health risk or even on a, on a small scenario of making a false claim on an immigration statement. and in a statement released by alex walk, you said he made the decision on the grounds that it's in the public interest to do so. so this is yet another twist in the saga. the visa saga that involves no back doc of each. india's daily corona virus infections have risen to more than 264000 the last 24 hours, driven by the army con variant. it comes as hundreds of thousands of hindu pilgrims gather for a religious festival in west bengal. china is facing a test of its so called 0 covered policy ahead of the beijing winter olympics in february, 201 cases have been confirmed up from 190 a day earlier. the city of tianjin is under a strict lockdown. north korea has testified another missile owls of the us called
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the new sanctions. it's the 3rd launch this month. and the 6th since september, the government defended the tests as a legitimate right to self defense and want of a stronger reaction. if more sanctions are imposed. u. k. prime minister browse johnson's government is accused of holding more rule breaking parties during corona virus lockdown. they were hell on the eve of the funeral for queen elizabeth's a husband. prince philip and queen elizabeth has tripped her son, prince andrew, of all military and royal titles. the 61 year old prince is facing a civil law suit in the united states, accusing him of sex abuse of a minor virginia. jeffrey says she was forced to have sex with him and other men. when she was 17 years old. the palace says prince andrew will defend the case as a private citizen. those are headlines. i'll have another update for you here on al jazeera right after inside story season. bye bye for now. my name is bonnie, but now i have always thought of yoga is part of my indian heritage. i understand
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it to be about transformation, but yoga itself seems to be transforming with yoga, should belong to everyone. but i'm afraid that simple truth is getting lost in a world that so commercialized politicize ends. yoga analogy is in it's a meeting reminiscence of the cold war era, nato and russia, thompson, brussels with relation said to be at the critically low level. so exactly what does the site actually want? is an on conflict now likely for does diplomacy still have a chance? this is inside story. ah
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hello and welcome to the program. i'm pete adobe. a high stakes meeting between russia and the north atlantic treaty organization, nato, over ukraine ended without a breakthrough. politicians and military men from both sides said significant differences remained during what they describe as frank and open discussions. more talks are underway, but failing to reach an understanding means the risk of armed conflict in europe is very real. the u. s. and nato have been increasingly concerned about a russian military build up near the border with ukraine. the arrival of more than $100000.00 soldiers and tanks, artillery and long range rocket units prompted fears about a ground invasion. the russian president vladimir putin has repeatedly denied that while also wanting nato, against expanding near its border. both nato and the u. s. rejected the kremlin demands on security among them a guarantee that nato will not accept crane and other former soviet nations as members. this cross is, is a, is,
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is the making of russia. on therefore, this important debate, deescalate ukraine hostile to self defense products and showing a new in a founding charter angle for so many dollars when they didn't, they dollars on little helped them to uphold of doctor brought to the, to self defense to gather the united states and our nato allies made clear, we will not slam the door shut on nato's open door policy. a policy that has always been central to the nato alliance, a fresher walks away. however, it will be quite apparent. they were never serious about pursuing diplomacy at all . that is why collectively we are preparing for ever. for every eventuality. rushes deputy foreign minister said nato's position is unacceptable for moscow not, but it was the realization that we just need to opt for the policy of deterring
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russia. we will respond with measures of contra deterrence. if it uses the policy of intimidation, we will respond with contra intimidation. if it looks for vulnerabilities in the russian defense system. we will look when nate, those vulnerabilities. it's not our choice, but we don't have other options. if we don't overturn this current very dangerous course of events, the tension between nato and moscow can be traced to the crimean peninsula where russia has one of his most important naval bases. in 2014 ukraine's pro russian government was topple. following months of protests, russia responded by seizing control the crimea, pro russian separatists then declared independence internet sc. and once, after a referendum was held that triggered the conflict between ukraine and the separatists. despite the sci fi i agree to minsk sporadic fighting has never really stopped. in 2016 nato deployed battle groups to baltic states and poland in response to the annexation of crimea. the latest tension started last year when
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russia mobilized 100000 soldiers near its border with ukraine. ah, okay, there we are. here we go. let's bring in our guests joining us from brussels. we have theresa fallon, director of the center for russia, europe, asia studies in moscow. we have cobbled felton how. he's a defensive military analyst and in all sloop we have glen decent. he's a professor of international relations at the university of south eastern norway. welcome to you all teresa coming to you. first, is this a moment of proof in the relationship between russia and nato? i think there's a giant sigh of relief that meeting actually took place because russia, there were rumors that they might not even have the meeting with nato. if that meeting in geneva with the u. s. didn't go so well. so it's a promising sign that they actually had the meeting and the person, they've done it in 2 years. and the meeting lasted longer than anticipated by an extra hour. but there are 2 problems. now we have the problem of ukraine tend to,
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they're extremely high and it's clear according to wendy sherman and her press conference yesterday, that nato is not willing to shut the door. they're going to maintain their open door policy. and it's up to countries that they really want to apply to nato, that they're leaving the door open. and this is something that president putin has been clear that he was a treaty outlining that neither ukraine nor ga could ever join nato. so this is something i don't know how they're going to get around. so this is kind of an intractable point right now. and many analysts have wondered, did put, make these maps melissa request to see how much he would get in return. so this is a rose and clear about what put in his doing. he has it. we have fallen if, if his demands include all you other countries that join nato was 1987 would have to leave. and so in many respects what he is doing by surrounding you came with a 100000 soldiers. some haven't seen that as black mel trying to get negotiations,
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but others in russia feel that finally were being heard. so it remains to be seen. but the other issue is that is putting miscalculating because in many respects he is creating a backlash. we've seen sweden and finland signal that they were instead of leaving nato, that right now that they're considering joining nato. so instead of decreasing the size of the country, the amount of countries in nato put in inadvertently is actually increased perhaps could be increasing the size of nato puzzle. felt how in moscow is there a chance that perhaps the feeling in the kremlin, i. e, mister putin settled position on this is, why should nato be allowed to cherry pick from our list of demands? well, that is the official position that russia has been telling before these meetings during these meetings. and also i agree after the meetings that the,
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the russian demands should be accepted or else. so now we're moss, like we're moving into the or else the time frame. of course, today there's a meeting in vienne now as seed discussing the same thing in service. there won't be any breakthrough there because that's not the forum where you can get cheap, any kind of a compromise or agreement on anything much, at least not in one day. oh, so too many nations, they are represented in the unanimous and in the name of the to get anything, sir, did they, the russian main negotiator, everyday foreign minister simply a that class said that may be right now on the even planning and the new meetings with america, or with me to or with the west, will be considering our counter measures which will be military or military death newco in nature. that means russia will be planning military responses to of
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a hero. what, nate? the rejection by the west of russian demands, or of course that may be will be deploy, rush military infrastructure to venezuela and cuba. what you said that's kind of may be yes, maybe not as just sort of one of the options. okay, so right now russia goose considering options on the military, technical response to indecent or slope in the u. s. for the united states, for mr. blinkin. clearly the idea of either a, bilateral, or a unilateral deal, self standing self supporting over ukraine was toxic. it was someplace the us didn't want to go, was that the best attitude and the best approach to have a head of the nato meeting? i know, i think they do have to be some kind of flexibility because the reason why we have this is because we really need a solution to us. what is the european secured security architecture initially had
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a lot of deals on this topic. i mean, in the early ninety's, in 19099499 where it has all disagreements on european, secure, at the well sides agreed on the principle of indivisible security. so one shot would not expand the secure expense on the other. but what, blinking it's reflecting is this new argument by nato, which was a real principle of european security should be the rights of need to expand. and, and this is the main problem because these 2 principles they do not harmonize. so this is kind of why we have this conflict. do us insist on the right to expand and insisted permit, unable to expend in more. so this idea that not giving an interest to russia is diplomatic. not to the russians did not really make much sense, but now the only solution left without the diplomatic solution to this is simply
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for russia to have to rely on the military to prevent further naval expansion and adjust the final note. this is the elevator being made to cure the agreement. this was also reflect that other areas. for example, need the russia funding. i might get 7 is clearly the truth stipulates that neighbors should not in the troops in the members. however, now nato secretary general suggest that the natal can discriminate against new and old members. so effectively made to has all these new principles which allow it to actually buy by the european security agreements. it's a find on to in the past. so it's, it's, it's a stand off and i don't think blinking. no, yeah. was able to move this issue forward. and anyway, theresa fallon, in brussels, when pavel in moscow talks about that mister putin considering his options. is this what we're seeing old putin m, you can trust him to be
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a master of ambiguity if you will, doesn't send out mix signals, doesn't actually lie. but kind of messes with issues change is, is stands just ever so slightly. so even the big boys of nato and the big boys of european politics can't quite get a grip on where they think he might decide to go next. that's really in the place because as we know, he was a judo master. and so he's always kind of moving around watching where the best weaknesses are and how can you leverage that to his advantage. so i think that that's a perfect example. how is approaching these, these talks with nato? and i think that 1st of all, they try to break european unanimity by demanding bilateral types of the united states. insinuating that the u. s. wouldn't talk to the european allies about european security, wendy sherman has had over hundreds debriefings before the nato meeting after the meeting with russians about security in europe. so the europeans are happy. other nato members are happy. and so if you haven't had to make up for the deficit,
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for lack of trust when the trump administration. so i think that people almost feel over brief, but i think that they had to do this in order to reassure them. and, you know, i think there's a dictators dilemma going on here because we put, and we know, it least even in the soviet union, you had to pull up your, you had other people making decisions. but we see that the negotiators must go back physically to moscow to get new instructions there. they don't have the ability to negotiate at all. so they're just given, you know, the, the red lines they put in and then they have to try to give these speaking points. so i think that this really hampers the russian position. and it also creates a lot of concern for countries in eastern europe because their demand they're asking now is, as you pointed out, jen silverberg, they're asking for reassurance because of russian aggression. and so they want troops there, they want more help. so i think that this he put in might have, you know,
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seriously miscalculated glen decent back in also the does this come down to the kremlin feeling threatened or feeling that it's increasingly large? sphere of influence is maybe coming on the threat, or do we have to go further back than that? because there was a point when the berlin wall was just about to fall. james baker, the then us secretary of state working for bush, the, the original george bush said to gorbachev. if you're okay with german unification, nito will not expand to the east. i promise you that fast forward to boris yeltsin as russian president, he had a conversation with the polish president leg though, answer, and likewise and says, oh, we're thinking about joining nato. boris yeltsin says, yes, absolutely. feel free. and if you look at the map of europe, that's why hitler invaded poland because it's only 60 clicks from berlin to the polish border. and then from poland, you just a straight line drive to ukraine. well,
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obviously russel feels very much betrayed from all the broken promises that nato would not expand. and again, it has been well documented. however, i think that the sum of the terminology is quite misleading for. so if i didn't need to continue to just want to reassert its serial plans here, implants, insurance, i'm exclusive, so implants, however, if you look in places like ukraine, keep in mind that ukraine and russia proposed to the 2013 that let, let's find a common try natural solution, ukraine so divided it will make it choose between the civil war, you know, and then supported the could there. so again, russia has no possibility, any illusions about having exclusive influence in, in the ukraine. what they're trying to prevent is nato from asserting its serv insolence in ukraine. so russia actually redefined, was previously called in,
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of influenced it's not referring to the stairs of interest. saying if nato was going to start operating on russian borders, it has to recognize that it also has secured the interest there. so moving, for example, natal, him to ukraine is next essential threat. russia so they can make the fusion move without consulting and russia. but obviously, the russia comes from the past, then there's a certain similarities between them. the direction that you estimate are moving, which should be a part not to germany. and obviously, all this rhetoric that nato, it's about, you know, only including and embracing congress wants to join it's, it is primarily an alliance to contain russia and the 3rd tension on it in europe. so i so i did this on the final point to have to point out when natal offered and nato member creating only approximately 20 percent of the police actually
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wanted it, which suggest that it's not the nato that pressure to take, you know, this congress wants to join it's, it's natural that's pushing for expansion. so again that the rest of it gets very much skewed. ok. puzzle. falcon how. what happens if nature goes to the so called trip wire scenario, which is and there are apparently, according to this vehicle to day, there are people high up in nato saying we should do this. we should build our military up in romania and bulgaria. how would that be perceived in the kremlin ball? not, of course. good. there has been nato has plans to reinforce its eastern flank or eastern front. i don't know. i know where the troops, there's their standing plan of 30 plus 30 plus 30 plus $1330.00 days, 30 battalions. 3rd, the war ships and 30 squadrons of warp way and should be moved to poland,
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the both x and to romania and maybe bulgaria. though at present bulgaria, the defense master said about here is not. we are interested in a stationing nato troops doesn't feel it. so threatened doesn't have a connection really to even meet you. craig, not talk about russia, but they're romania, poland. the baltic states lower gladly accept more troops. and if you begin moving troops, that's a very serious problem. because next will take a lot of time to bring say, a tax division from texas to poland or is tony our romania. it takes a lot of time and effort. it's a long way by c, by land, for russia to move. it's forces from the vulgar region, or he came from siberia do it's, it's much shorter, so there's going to could be a scramble who deploy 1st. that's how the 1st world war began. and troop movements
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began before even war is declared, and anyone crosses the border. you already get into a slippery slope from which she can easily extract yourself or maybe not at all. okay, get into a spiral of an escalation. okay, through the family just just to push, you know, because we are heading towards the end of the program, theresa fallon, in brussels. does mister putin want to kind of recreate the old ussr in his image? he's not growling at the baltics because he can't. but if we examine what happened in roger, 2008, the crimea 2014 to day in kazakhstan to day outside, just outside of ukraine. sounds looked like a sphere of influence. if it walks like a dark and talks like a duck, hello, it's a russian duck. we have to remember who puts in is he's a soviet man,
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and he's 70 years old and he's looking at his legacy. and what is he going to be known for? so i think his dream is to kind of reanimate his old kind of so the idea and not so union, but to have this massive russia sphere influence. so his moves and cause they found, played on television all across russia. how great russia was, you know, helping them because i'm friends and how strong and powerful they were. and i think that that is with animating this and everyone here knows that you can cannot join the, you know, there is a frozen conflict, not so pros and really in ukraine. so now i cannot accept any country that is in conflict. so neither george, any nor ukraine can possibly join nato who to knows this. and so others are concerned that what he fear is more because he knows he can't join nato with these present conflicts. but what he fear is more is a democratic ukraine, right, on its border, and that is deep down what he is very deeply concerned about. so i think that russia under put in that,
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i mean the next generation will be very different leadership. so can, can we hold on how long is put in going to stay in power and you mentioned comics done. there's a really important lesson that put in took away from that nother to another buyer. had kind of a semi retirement and that would keep him him and his family safe. but he's been removed from power. so put in, took away from that that he can never retire so he has to keep moving and keep going. it. and there are some, even in moscow talking about we have to inspire the imperial russian movement that will keep our country going. okay. and i think that insight basically there's a lot of economic issues. yes. to deal with glen decent in the next minute or so, not wishing to be too sensationalistic or to profit to do about the whole thing. is there a dynamic here that maybe nato doesn't understand nato as a long timeline for these discussions. moscow has a short timeline, and if any one blows it at the talks, russia will invade ukraine. well,
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i don't think it will in itself in the the claim to, sir. again, this misrepresentation here, i will define rush as a status quo power. when it intervened in george, i did not in their duel countries. other expected, the, all this amended the existing position you could have be made and you can easily 2014 you didn't on the cemented it's existing positioning, crimea entered. you came from joining nato by, by supporting gun bus. it's it, again, nato is a, revisionist, an expansion is our and russia it's, it's simply pushing to hold the status quo. so i think the analysis is somewhat wrong, but you're right, i think. and then who is playing by time. it's is dragging out negotiations trying to change reality on the grounds. i think russia will seek more quick solution if it is not alternatives. pebble, falcon her in moscow, the last word to you. if nato slash the u. s. does not apply sanctions, is there
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a dynamic here that might play to nato's advantage, particularly with reference to ukraine? and as mister putin, mister putin does not have a good track record when it comes to split plate spinning different su. so he's got his fingerprints on cassock start at the moment. he's got his fingerprints on ukraine. at the moment. he's got his fingerprints on the relationship with nato at the moment. he doesn't have form when it comes to being able to handle more than one big issue at a time. brushing resources are, of course, limited crush is not the soviet union. and they're right now russian troops rational withdrawing from casa. they demonstrated their, the very heightened state of a work that they are in, but they were rushed. don't, hasn't they have enough troops and passport brains? and now they're moving swiftly out, maybe concentrating for a pass, a bow, a grass as the may happened in the west. it's not only ukraine that may be other things. russia made the poor new miss isles. no longer medium range missiles in
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a forward positions in crimea, in coming in grad, maybe in bell, arose, to can to give in european countries a sense of threat that the russia could been a dead tree for concessions. so when mom, i'm afraid, yes, we're moving into her situation where the tensions in europe are going to grow. it could be a conflict escalation, ukraine, it could be escalations in other parts of the o, overall western russian divide. okay, very last word to you. teresa in brussels, 30 seconds that sold, you've got where we are at the moment, seems to be between nato and russia. let's agree to disagree. so it's a pretty low bar. but how do they both build on that? assuming that both of them both sides, russia and nato actually want peace in europe, they don't want to conflict. i think that they didn't reach out in olive branch to rush in stating that they discussed missile. i think that that's
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a very key area and i and the russian seem interested in discussing that. so i think that that's an area that they can build on. so discussing this, and i think that also they should try to put it into this because it's in russian's interest. china is that involved in any sort of missile discussions, so that could be a wind or the world. so i think that this might open up a new chapter in cooperation. ok, we have to leave it there. thank you to i guess they were theresa fallon, pavel falcon, how and glen decent and thank you to for watching. you can see the show again. any time via the website, i'll just, you know, dot com. and for further discussion to go to our facebook page, lance, facebook dot com, forward slash ha, inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle as ever at a inside story from me, peter toby, and the entire team here in doha. thanks for watching. we will see you at the usual time tomorrow. for the moment.
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