tv Counting the Cost Al Jazeera February 10, 2022 2:30am-3:01am AST
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we will be doing our level, utmost to, to make sure is resolved as quickly as possible. the commercial space companies, space acts owned by abilene, a isla mosque has predicted to lose up to 40 of its brand new satellites. following following a solar store. they were among 49 orbital devices, large just 6 days ago, as part of the styling. net network that she had magnetic sold increased the drag, all the satellites causing them to lose velocity and burner on re entry. the me what you'll do there with me. so robin, reminder of our top news stories, the eas, top financial regulator, is preparing banks for possible russian cyber attack. that's according to the roaches these agency which says banks are conducting cyber wargames. meanwhile, european leaders are only diplomatic, pushed to prevent a military conflict between ukraine and russia,
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which has been amassing troops on the ukrainian border front. president manuel macro is the latest leader to meet the president of both russia and ukraine. canada's prime minister says truck blocking a vital border crossing with the us are a threat to the country's economy. the so called freedom convoy was vaccine requirements and other cove at $900.00 restrictions scrapped. it's an acceptable knife actually to this siege is unacceptable. the impacts on small businesses on manufacturers, on the supply, china, on going, whether it be barricades at the border or sieges in ottawa, we must do everything we can at every level of government. and what would really help is if the conservative party could tell us supporters to stop blocking our economy and young home drivers and brands have also been inspired by those protest in canada. dozens of people had it all from me. so what they're holding a freedom convoy, 5 groups will hold rallies across the country before converging on paris. on friday . the international court of justice is ordered uganda to pay $325000000.00 to the
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democratic republic of congo. the find is full reparation for conflict 20 years ago that killed tens of thousands. the court's decision could not be appealed. security forces in sit on rest today for the government minister, who's an outspoken critic of last trans military takeover. call it omar yusef, now he was detained because of his role in the task force appointed to dismantle the former regime. more arrests are expected. human rights groups have criticized security personnel in indonesia, after a police operation lead to the rest of dozens of villages in what us. they're protesting against plans to develop a rock mining site in central java. you follow those stories, of course, on a website it's updated throughout the day. a back with more use in half my here on out there. next, it's counting the cost. i own in 2 different worlds, but creatively and philosophically aligned. al jazeera world explores the
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surprisingly between the egyptian islamic scholar mohammed abdul and russia. novelist, leo tolstoy, and the french and egyptian surrealists all the way bread and jewish literary liaison thinkers. and surrealist on al jazeera, i lose almond over the random. this is counting the cost on algebra you. we can look at the world of business and economics this week. the u. s. allies have doubled down the thresh sanctions. the ukraine stands off. it's a took the daughter to of the past decade or so it bought. do such punishment
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really bite and what to stake? also this week, as tension between russia and the west escalades over ukraine, european energy supplies in the crosshairs. the continent must diversified resources away from moscow who could fill the gap. a new terrace weapon against the us, the war trade organization authorizes china to retaliate against millions worth of an american export. washington says the ruling undermine fame, market competition for the build up of russian troops along ukraine, water has kept moscow's rivals on edge wandering. what? let me, prudence next move is russia's president says he doesn't intend to invade ukraine. leaders in western capital say he might attack and one of the high prize if he does order troops in the u. k. the european union and the u. s. have previously imposed
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russian sanctions and more are expected if diplomacy fails. stock markets reacted to the geo political tension, and the standoff is raised and fears of a wider economic fought out. us officials have warned of what they called the mother of war sanctions against russia. and bow expected to include measures targeting that move hooton's in a circle. and it's time to the west. washington and its allies have also been discussing border sanctions against sectors of russia's economy, including banking and energy. the measures meant to hurt the russian economy, but it's fear they'll also affect those of other nations. the crisis has already pushed the price of oil and gas off, but it goes beyond the energy. the cost of metals used for everything from ca, making an out of tronics to kitchenware and construction have also increased. so have the prices of wheat and colon on the possibility of a sudden supply crunch. russia and ukraine combined make up
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a quarter of global grain exports, and kia has called on the west to avoid spreading panic. that could put it the economy at risk. when a loss appears to be at stake. to discuss that, i'm joined by tatiana or larva who's the lead emerging markets economist with oxford economics. she's also the founder of emerging all mix and she's joining us from london. very good to have you with us. so what do you make of the possible new sanctions that we've heard about so far from the us and its allies that they have been threatening russia would? well, sometimes the fear of the sanctions can do more damage than the sanctions themselves . and we can see that the 5th of the human infection has already done a lot of damage to the russian markets. however, i think the, what we need to see now is the exact warranty or the bill at the us more low rate of when to approve. and then we will see what the damage fees sanctions
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could do. for example, the board in your what action russia needs to take with whether the sections will be imposed if russia affects ukraine, or if there are cyber attacks or even information campaigns. so we'll be looking at him to the law. yeah. and the u. s. has been debating, imposing functions, not just of russia invades ukraine, russia attacks ukraine, but actually over the actions that she already mentioned, the cyber attacks, the sort of, you know, information. the information was the u. s. and the allies have imposed sanctions against russia in the past. and yet we find ourselves here again after the annexation of crime in 2014. how effective have previous sanctions been in deterring russia? well, i wouldn't say they have been very effective. i think that the russian leadership
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is probably has a long term political goals and it's a building it's winning strategy and in order to achieve those goals. so i think it's actually kind of has been general case with manufacture. no, just against russia, but also other countries such as been you swale and iran actually, you know, the sanctions often do not probably bring it as a defect and sometimes they actually inflict a lot of suffering under populations. so the sanction of the tool which has to used very carefully and given that they do affect people as much as they do governments, could they possibly backfire here and not just affect the russian people, but other than europe to oh yes, i think it's going possible i mean, if the west to into info impulse feel the harsh sanctions against russia, russia would reply. you know, it's all,
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all come to the sanctions. as it was the case during the conflict of 20142015 when russia actually cooked some in but from the european union and other countries which involved sanctions game. so as a result, there was some damage to certain european businesses, you know, greek fellows of features or made the oldness of f, a, which is, and poland could no longer send their produce to russia. so i guess some kinds of measures along those lines would also be expected. and in europe itself, united in whatever actions taken against russia, better loan, the us and europe on the same page. no, no, we haven't seen my immunity. and there is, 1st of all that a lot of divisions in europe itself because the various countries within europe have different degrees of ties with russia. comic trains of some country so much
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stronger. for example, germany has traditionally build these high dependence on russia, russian hydrocarbon supplies. so yes, there is become, see that the u. s. and a europe on the same page. and what is that? as well as all the uncertainty doing, you know, to markets, how have they been reacting? what is the sort of, you know, not i will say pre war, but the anticipation the uncertainty doing to market sentiment. you, as i said, the fear itself is already affecting the market and here. well, 1st of all, the russia markets going to be 2.21, and in the last few weeks away. but i want to see here that the last few days, actually this situation has come down. and these happened after russia reacted in a relatively mild fashion to the us reply to its demand. so i think the markets
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have great you to start the pricing out to that very quite political premium that was built in during the month of january. and that's interesting. yes, please continue. i was, yes, i was just going to mention that ukrainian markets. you're also reacting a lot of concern to these developments. so in the way, you know, even though at the moment there is no open conflict. i mean, it's the situation on the border is come, know what mis trutina killing people, but the markets already reacting as if there was a war. so you cream kind of was also affected by this. panic moved and foreign investors started withdrawing their funds from you bringing markets. all right, tatiana and london, thank you very much for your time. thank you. well, as the talk, sanctions goes louder, europe could find itself squeezed on the energy front. it's believed that measures
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to limit russia's ability to export oil and gas would be the most powerful weapon and would hurt the russian economy. but they would cause pain for all those most. most of the europe. russia provides around 30 percent of the european union natural gas, and there is a war you may have to turn to other supplies. the u. s. has been working with all the countries on ways to supply fuel to western europe, nations. if that happens, dominant cane supports from berlin. this is the ammo, natural gas insulation in central russia. one of many such plants is product is pipe to destinations in asia and europe, all of which generates an export revenue of more than $200000000.00 a day for the provide a gas problem. the greatest single market is germany, closely followed by other european countries. cumulatively 128000000000 cubic meters of gas flows to the e u. each year, representing around a 3rd of its annual impulse. but what would happen if the ukraine crisis became
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more war and all of this was suddenly switched off. it's going to so i don't want, it could be an interruption of guessing. whoever was government should weigh carefully whether they really want that was possible to put europe under pressure would eventually tend to liquid guess some of us talk, this liquid gas or l n g is a solution. there are a few of these potential suppliers, most notably the u. s. and the state of qatar, while neither could fill the shortfall of so much gas, immediately one unless told me, catherine might be able to provide a more medium and long term solution that could hurt indeed, did supply europe with a lot more gas in the past. but given the fact that the europeans were not very fond of the way that the contracts are structured, kotor pivoted to asia and now supplies from most of the gas to them rather than the europeans should be some se, reconsideration on the european end when it comes to the contractual elements and
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their compatibility with european energy law, then that this might actually change the situation. and he's from a medium to long term. from the geopolitical perspective, there are increasingly loud voices in western europe who don't want to be so dependent on russia for the energy supply in full. but here, because we have to build a foundations of art over into which means more independence from russia. when i look at are important terms of oil and gas to get, we are not independent from russia. this won't happen overnight. he, you lead us have been clear that a russian active aggression against ukraine would have dire consequences of president putin and his country. it would mean an end to his hopes of switching on the north stream to gas pipeline, depriving him of tens of billions of dollars in revenue, and depriving the e u of hundreds of billions of cubic meters of russian gas. the few in berlin is in such a price is worth paying if it can deter moscow from invasion. ministers here,
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don't want to arm the craniums. they believe the most potent weapon against tutoring is sanctions. no matter the cost. dominant cane al jazeera in the german capital or to discuss all of that on join. now by mike full, would the senior research fellow at oxford institute for energy studies. and he's joining me now from oxford. mister full with thank you for your time. how worried do you think europe is right now about us energy supply? like yours where they should be should be very worried. i think john was lee cor, lots of europe supply, not just of gas, coal, and oil as well. come from russia. so there's obviously a lot of uncertainty about the event of any sort of conflict still isn't the crying . so what might help close supplies said she really is a key issue as the other in online is in the press and quality assurance has been
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working on a contingency plan. was a tool going the mean years ministration has been talking about trying to get more gaster lucas, like natural gas to come to, to europe. and that's, that's limited to the extent that let me so much i'm going to gosh robin g, around the world. and that split between and the number of markets, including donasia, europe, south american market. so there isn't much l, a g around the world, the at the moment. well, the u. s. has been trying to find a contingency plan. as you mentioned, washington has tried to persuade europe in the past though to buy its gas, but its found few takers. why is that? well, i mean, i present true. talked about with freedom, gosh for your that was a little more towards the i mean the b, b, u, s l n g producer,
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australia. because the way that the contracts are structured with the oxide because they're pretty much free to send their gas at n g o was anywhere in the world and they attended to follow the market. so when it was cold and i should, ation prices will holler, a lot of it went off in japan, creates our warm china and india. and you know, when in the last few months or last year and part of this year, a lot of it, the record amounts of complete your ra because the europe in price at the moment so much for both buyers and sellers like the flexibility, right? the move on g round gives them all right, and what about the north stream pipeline to which there's been a lot of attention on it would bring pipe gas from eastern russia to western germany from under the baltic sea. but is that likely to still go ahead this current environment?
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and the, i think clearly as, as a promise on the ground in bait, in the crate. and then that was the project and the complete jeopardy. it's probably likely, politically to start. well, there's an actual conflict on and in the absence of that. and so if it's too much of the saber rattling them the, the process going to, to improve knowledge stream to regulate as restarted the process that may not the nation. so the 2nd half of this year, just to go to europe, a commission for approval, that that's really a robust time. so it could get delayed as the process takes longer, but ultimately, legally it will, it will get approved. it then becomes a political decision as to whether to stop it and not, not could those huge litigation should have been damaged in the course of the
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sponsor, the project, not just the russians and the possible energy class that we're talking about. how do you see it hurting more than you were p and nations, which is so reliant on russia for their gas or russia itself, which sells so much of it's the co 5 natural gas to europe and earns revenues from us. well, it's, you know, tell both man, i think, yeah, russia gets a little revenues from explosive oil and gas. oh. and that nonsense really with the prices of last year. so she built up quite a chest of dollars with which to withstand, let's say a short cut off with our supplies. sorry, it's got the money certainly to cover that. but i think he did it. russia from biscuits supplies, and they spent 30 to 40 years building up
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a reputation of being a reliable supplier. and that's all part of the window. if they, if they could tell supplies. and they've been saying your long term contract off the table and it will be disastrous for your mindful with an oxford thank you for your time. again, for more than a quarter of a century, the world trade organization has been meant to serve as an opposite of commerce. but it has rarely succeeded to not shop any winds on the country. it has often got caught in the crossfire when it's tried to find solutions. the u. s. has repeatedly accused the w. t. o of siding the bay jang, and the dispute between the 2 countries and has demanded its reform. the trade body is yet again anger and b, u. s. it's authorized china to retaliate against $645000000.00 worth of us imports per year. as part of a decade old trade dispute, or the u. s. anti subsidy duties on chinese goods. the amount was much less than
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the $2400000000.00 that china had initially requested. washington said it's impose the tariff on products, including solar panels, because they were being dumped on the market to help chinese companies do business . as the 2nd time, the w t o has allowed china to retaliate for us anti dumping taxes and 2019 the arbitrator and our aging to add duties on up to $3600000000.00 worth of us imports . that same year, former president donald trump, blocked the appointment of new judges to the organizations applet body. well, the new ruling comes almost a year after a fragile, but arguably, durable trade truth between the us and china. washington in beijing signed a trade packed in 2020, that the mom's china increase its buying of u. s. goods. the chinese government has so far failed to meet those purchase commitments. president joe biden has kept duties on chinese apparel furniture and other items. the u. s. imposed power on at least $360000000000.00
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a year. and chinese made goods. the w t o has said additional tariffs imposed in 2018 by the us on chinese goods violated international trading rules. separately, the e u has fall the case against china at the w t o photography. in lithuania, just begun with blocking lithuanian import. the route was parked off to live when he is decision to allow taiwan, which is seen by the chinese government as part of its territory to open a diplomatic outpost in vilnius, china downgraded its diplomatic relations with lithuania, but denies ordering the boycott of the nations goods i'm joined now by henry gal who is the associate professor at the singapore management university. he's also a member of the advisory board of the w t o chairs program. and he's joining us from singapore, mr. gal. very good to have you with us. so how much of a surprise was this decision by the w t o, how much of a when was it for china?
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well, i guess the decision was not really surprising because this is part of a long rang and dispute. they came back 2 years ago and the radio was us substances 3 years ago. so the decision basically established the quantity, the quantum of damage or china. but the key of us action was ready decided 3 years ago. so i think this is just a mind big trip or china. i wouldn't say this is a big win for china. the u. s. a certainly angered by it whether they see it as a win or not. and they're saying that this is, you know, the decision reflects erroneous apple, it body interpretations. what do you make of that? well, the u. s. has been complaining about the queue just as system for a long time, especially on to remedies cases where they regard the appellate body is to show
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public body. for example, to be a serious mistake that minds, the other countries ability to tack what tiny says based capitalism. and have a long call it or the form. but personally, i would agree with us review. i think the body actually has made the right decision . ironically, if you look closely at the appellate body decision 3 years ago, i mention audio. actually the parent body in that case, did a try to re adjust the audio. you're pretty some, probably the body to make it easier for us to have a safeguard, as to have already subsidy ameris against china. so i think the u. s. a complaint, a definite mist directly, and you know, the us has been so angry at the w t o in the past that it's actually blocked appointments to the athletic body, which is the dispute settlement course. how much has that hampered the world trade
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organization and its ability to sol dispute between countries? would you say? yes, definitely. i mean the us a decision to block the appellate body a, another mistake made by the us, the course. ironically, on the one hand you are seeing that the u. s. has been complained that china is being body can all kinds of w was on the other hand to undermine the w us ability to really off. these was against china by removing the appellate body, making the body basically be non existent. so i think the u. s. is kind of a self contradicting if they really want to have, you know, was meant actions against china in the w you'll, you should definitely bring back the appellate body. do you think that that's likely to happen under president joe biden? it hasn't happened so far. it was the former president, donald trump, who just decided to block appointment from the athens, but it could be see some progress now. well, everyone have been waiting since the president of barton team to all the so you go,
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but i think those of us in the circle have a barn large being disappointed by the actions of the new body ministration. because despite the seeing that the u. s. is background of the us, there's so much last, what is the steel continue the blockage just we saw the tween for president trump. so i think i've had a boy that would be continue the blockage at least for a while and kill the get. what do you want to in the w 2 by the probably, the u. s. has not even made it clear, right? know what the one in the w use. so that make solve the problem even more difficult . you're not surprised by the w to a decision later. decision on china, but would you say that it impacts this, you know, fragile trade truth between the us and china that we've had some 2020. that is a good point to actually because i personally, even though i was not surprised by the decision. but i think this decision
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providers trying to some expected to get an average in the things that they could use this authorization from the w e q to retaliate against the us as a kind of a bargaining chip with us, especially as the u. s. now is reviewing china's implementation of the phase one, where the most common tutors would have re and they're trying to build to implement the grim it to extend. so i think china could use these to advantage and maybe this wouldn't help what we need trunks or mr. guy, we have just a less than a minute left and i'd like to ask you about lithuania as well. what do you make of the european union taking this case to the w t o over china's actions against lithuania? well, the see? no surprising because the u. has been contacting the the case for a while, and i would argue that 80 so good that the u. s. is taking the keys to the w 2 because it's much better than simply, you know,
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trying to go back and forth using diplomatic channels because the depth and, and not working. i think china, in that case would probably side the national security exception, just like russia did in the case against your grand. so the case would be interesting to watch. i hope that the w 2 panel would donate basically what are the conditions you need to cite the national security exception in the case henry gal, and singapore. thank you very much for your time. my pleasure. and that's our show for this week. get in touch with us by tweeting me at the for autumn and do use the hash tag a j c t c. when you do or drop as an e mail council, the cost at the dot net as i address. but there's more for you online as al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to our page, which has individual reports, length and tired episodes for you to catch up on that set for this edition of counting the cost. i'm elizabeth per item from the whole team. thank you for
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joining us. the news on al jazeera is the ah, with susan crucify along the russian crane border. u. s. presidential bypass threatened president politic this severe economic sanctions saying if conflict occurs, it could be the largest invasions world war 2 kinds of pneumatic talks, a few possibilities what we live from moscow to bring the latest development on al jazeera, the turco region of paragon, one of south america's toughest, we follow to men who seemed to thrive on his challenges. a veteran truck drivers
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answers every called whatever the web to provide for his growing family. and the cowboy who enjoys his rough and only life risk in an old paragraph on al jazeera. ah, a warning of a possible cyber attack on your banking system. that's diplomatic efforts to de escalate tension between russia and ukraine. continue. ah, oh, robert. watching al jazeera luck. my headquarters hearing. also coming up. i'm john 100 on the u. s. canada border. we're projecting truckers are disrupting hundreds of millions of dollars in commerce every day. also to bass, scold not to mass several. you.
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