a centuries old tradition that many now hope will mark the start of a bright future. priyanka after all to 0. the biggest sporting spectacle in the us is now underway. the los angeles rams are leading the cincinnati bengals in america's super bowl. more than $100000000.00 people are expected to tune in a feature if the half time show, of course, which include some of the greatest names this year in west coast rap. ah, this is al jazeera at exactly half past the hour. your top stories, one more time ukraine has called for talks, quotes within 48 hours between russia and members of the organization for security and cooperation in europe. it's also invited to us president joe biden to kiev following a 50 minute telephone call. hi, to jo. castro has more from washington on the ukraine's comments following that

discussion on the telephone. the lensky invited biden to go to cave in the coming days, quote unquote, because the u. s. presidents present there in the ukraine and capital would be crucial for de escalation again, there is no mention of this and the official read out that came from the white house and we are waiting for a response to that invitation. well, we do know from the white house is that this call lasted about an hour, and that biden said to zelinski that he affirmed that the you as an allies are ready to respond. he said swiftly and decisively. if russia furthers it's a good aggression against ukraine, ukraine and seeking transparency on russia's military build up, the number of russian forces in bella roost is the largest since the end of the cold war. they're engaged in intensive wargames. canadian police arrested several people while clearing the remaining kobe 19 protesters and vehicles blocking

a bridge on the border with the united states. the bridge is due to reopen on sunday. hundreds of protests of march through the dutch city of the hey, for a 2nd, a day to denounce corona virus restrictions across demanded the right to move freely in line with that truck drivers protest in canada opposition parties. engineers say they will unite against president case after he and i'm sweeping changes to the judiciary. they have been more protest in the capital tunis after he gave himself the power to dismiss judges is where the police of clear protest is in the flashpoint suburb of shakes aurora and occupied east jerusalem demonstrations broke out a far right is really empty. began reopening a political office in the neighborhood. you are right up to speak with all the top headlining stories. the news continues here, after inside story, one use in 30, i'll see you that. ah,

ah ah ah, ah us and russian lead a space reach no breakthrough on ukraine. so is diplomacy reaching a debt and why is the crisis proving so how does this hold? this is inside story. ah hello, welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a than in the latest diplomatic attempt between the united states and russia to resolve tensions of ukraine has achieved, apparently, nothing. president, putin and biden exchanged warnings and concerns over the phone. but little else.

meanwhile, note for activity continues on both sides. moscow has been massing troops in russia and bellows near the border with ukraine. and the build up is raising fish is an invasion, is eminent. ukraine is receiving western support. its biggest ally for us is sending $200000000.00 worth of military 8, including alma, penetrating missiles and ammunition. the french presidency says rush has given no indication of an invasion of ukraine that came out of a conversation between the french and russian presidents. emanuel micron spoke again with let it be put in by phone on saturday after his visit to moscow last week. put in, told my call nato members had failed to respond to russia. security demands. micron has also been in touch with german chancellor, r schultz and ukraine's president. vladimir and ski to promote stability in europe . more countries attending their citizens in ukraine to leave immediately.

australia has evacuated, staff from its embassy in the united states, warned, it will not evacuate anyone if war broke out and has reduced its diplomatic mission . britain and canada are doing the same ukraine, coal, those moves. premise. sure though. ah, ah, let's bring in our guests into the shower have joining us from moscow. pabo foger, how he's a defense and military analyst and a column is that no via better. in chicago, matthew brycer is senior fellow at the atlantic council and a former diplomat to national security official at the white house. and in, although glen decent is professor of international relations at the university of southeast in norway, an editor of russia in global affairs. welcome to all, if i could stop them with puzzle. does the outcomes the latest binding putin phone

call indicate that perhaps diplomacy is heading towards the dead ends? oh, lot badly. there was no serious progress there to those of course the number of phone calls. there was, oh, so the secretary blinking talking glover often and the american defense secretary talking to showing go and go. so that in general, harassed him of chief of general staff, talking to general moley. so there's furry of, of group phone calls. oh, involving the french president, the british you were us involved and they're up to now no big progress happening. but of course it's better to talk not than not to talk. but the situation is extremely tense and get being worse. and the only good news most likely is that it will be somehow resolved in a week or 2. or because the present very high state of

readiness cannot continue indefinitely. pavel tell me why you think it might be resolved in a week or 2 in particular. oh, i see the nether height, very super high state of readiness of the russian military cannot continue indefinitely. they'll have to say that now or go into action. and there had been movements of equipment for a long distance from the far east to the polish border from the far east to, to the mediterranean, from the north there and seized 2, again, black sea in mediterranean. so these ships will have to return these troops will have to return, though everyone will have to step down as it's in several weeks, may be in march for sure. so it's a decision should come technically much earlier and such or go, it's either go or,

or it's a, it's a stand down. oh, all right, matthews, step down all step out. i'll step out. but some things got to happen. but apparently not on the diplomatic front, was the biden poking phone called past one of the last shots for diplomacy. well, it depends on how you look at diplomacy. i mean, because a war is the continuation of politics. by other means, we always have to keep in mind that the objective, in this case of the one who's provoke the conference president, the, the crisis president, putin, is political. so his political goals, as we can clearly see now, are to prevent ukraine from ever joining nato to destabilizing ukraine. but also in the bigger sense it's to, it's to push back nato's influence in eastern europe and restore a sense of russian greatness in europe. so those are political goals, and president putin has used the chosen to use the threat of military force and the threat of a full scale invasion to pursue those goals through diplomacy. diplomacy is

happening. and so president putin has not chosen yet to employ these massive capabilities that he has deployed. and so i would argue that diplomacy has succeeded so far in deterring president putting from invading ukraine again. and diplomacy has succeeded precisely because nato has maintained a united front and has said the costs of an invasion of another invasion will be high, will be painful. you don't want to do this and i think that has given president putin pause, had there been no united front. as under the obama administration of nato. had there been no clear sign of high cost that would be imposed for invasion of crimea and of don. thus in this case, we would have seen the troop movements already by russia. what will happen in the next couple of weeks? that's going to be up to president vote. that's interesting whether he thank me. don't get he ran rats, matthew and asked, puzzled to comment them on that. do you agree with that analysis? probably had it not been for the united front, demonstrated 5

u. s. and its allies that perhaps we would have already seen a russian invasion of ukraine or further russian invasion of ukraine now. whoa, you might be, we don't know. i mean, it's like, you know, in the summer of 1914, before the war began, there was loss of diplomacy and phone calls. and you could say that the phone calls prevented the war, but actually they didn't a, so we're saying we should have to might mean see a real step down of forces before we can actually talk like that doesn't close and we'll miss the right. all right, i interrupted you, i'm going to let you finish your thought before we bring in glenn. well, they sent me. so i was just saying that, you know, what will happen in the next few weeks depends upon whether or not nato is able to maintain this united stance. the solidarity in demonstrating how high the costs

could be of an invasion of a re invasion. and so, you know, i'm, i'm a little bit concerned that in recent days it's become clear that many of the u. s . is european allies are staying. they're not in favor of severe the most severe economic countermeasures such as unplugging, russia from swift, from the international electronic payment system. i think president putin is looking mad as a sign that he can turn off the pressure and play on the fear that germany and france and the other big natal member states have of another war in europe. president putin is really effective at using the threat of force to frighten us is european allies. all of this is coming after a period of intense diplomacy, lightly gland. we've had boris johnson, emanuel mackerel, antony, blink, and old. visiting care of all moscow. or perhaps even both what is it achieved so far for chaw? i mean, we were kind of talking already about has it achieved stopping an invasion that

might have already taken place, although we know it has achieved for sure so far? well, i think something obviously has been achieved with this discussion again, the for us are the main objective is for is to for the 1st to resolve the internal crisis in ukraine, which means they have to pressure the west to. ready to push ukraine towards actually abiding by no means to agreement. so again, keep promised that it would engage with them both and drive it upon us and push your grant by disagreement. instead, there pumping in weapons which could enable, came to take back is region by force. so this is one of the things attempting to deter and also pressure to actually follow through with disagreement. the 2nd, the on the regional level, which is which is the security as we know throughout the $990.00 s. all of our c o. s. the partners agreed to the principal of indivisible security. so

one such an expand a secure expense another month during those days, we could ignore it because russia was sweet. obviously, russia's not weak anymore and demanding very clear security guarantees. so we also nato abide by the agreements that we have signed. so i think that's given that we're actually talking about this, which we haven't done over many years. is it just that there's some progress otherwise i would disagree some extent was the former person speaking or because i think the fact that me was not doing it. i think that's actually can be a positive thing because within a lot of the continental europeans are telling the russia was that, well, maybe we can come to an agreement and maybe we can push you to bind my disagreement . menu security deals and business. i think what's preventing or from happening because russia obviously, you know,

i love to lose from an invasion. it doesn't want to use force, but it has to read lines. and at the moment so far, i would say france, germany and the fact countries are not pushing or following the u. s. line on this i think that's actually preventing from. okay. interesting. some of your comments make us think back to 962, and of course this is not the 1st time we've seen the us in a position of trying to convince russia to back down in a military confrontation at the height of the cold war. you'll recall the cuban missile crisis president john kennedy urging, where he was urged rather buys advises to invade cuba after the discovery of soviet nuclear miss on installations that but kennedy rejected that and what became known as the cuban missile crisis. at the beginning of the 13 day stand off, kennedy ordered a naval blockade of cuba to prevent soviet reinforcements and demanded. moscow removed the weapons. kennedy then warmed cube, his leader, fidel castro, of the dangers. his people were facing the prospect of ass trying to destroy the

sites, followed by an invasion that could lead to the deaths of thousands. now, while war seemed inevitable, at one point kennedy's choice of diplomatic pressure over minute reaction eventually brought both sides together to make concessions, saving both countries and the rest of the world from all our nuclear war. i'm wondering when we look back at that puzzle. why is it proving so hard this time to have that kind of deal between the 2 sides where they come to some understanding to pull back forces from areas close to each other's borders. well there though, so didn't happen in a fortnight. it was a process of threats and counter threats. and in the end of the signs, they signed it to step down from the from on the brink, of course, there were other,

there was another similar crisis that's and $73.00. and during the, in the end of the arab israeli war, when russia was prepared, there were several hours left for before a number of brush and airborne divisions should have landed in egypt together with nuclear weapons to fight these railways and the americans were lifted. the defcon level and decided to also send the same $82.00 division airborne that's our deploying and poland was repaired to deploy it to israel to fight the russians. and there was kissinger gabbing this shuttle diplomacy that morrow. s a secured an agreement, an agreement that was hell holding for a long time, wack in the cuban crisis. there was an agreement that actually was standing there for decades after it was reached. that's what we should be looking now for. not

just simply as a kind of tactical de escalation for, so for several weeks or several months. but for an agreement that we're actually getting a gift, prevent this particular crisis from recreating somewhere in the summer. i, you need someone who's going to be working on such an agreement. there should be a effective shuttle diplomacy. well, president marker on tried to do that. apparently he is not well equipped forward because france can pressurized no one. even you brain into doing what your brain does not want to do, and the can't pressure has rush and can't pressurized state. so you need someone who can extend an impulse. that's awesome. let me jump in here cuz that's kind of related to what glen was saying a moment ago. and let me take this question then to glen and say is the will perhaps today a different place than in 1900. 62 during the arab israeli conflicts where

as you've been saying, glen, basically, nato isn't as united as it was before. and also, perhaps russia is not as strong as it was during the peak of the cold war under the days of the soviet union is that perhaps less of, of an incentive because of that situation for both sides to quickly reach a resolution? well, obviously, i mean, at the moment, russia, it's obviously a much, much weaker than what you need and what that also means that in your russia it's, it's not, it's not as severe as it used to be. so this idea that russia was the restore of the soviet union or in western europe. it's, you know, this things come to be taken up seriously, and also by the expenditure the military expenditures, their appeal. don't spend that much on weapons simply because they don't see russia being this much is this big of

a threat. and also there is more empathy now towards, towards this idea of russia. and of course they also have the right for security. and if they're denied security, then they will have to respond in a way which, which on their minds the security of europe last year. let me tell you what, perhaps ukrainians have a different perspective who's seen, of course, the eastern part of their country. and on back go through an invasion. what they would see is the russian invasion well in ukraine, and to be somewhat of a pond because we, we keep saying that the us supports ukraine, but let's be honest. what happened when they offered ukraine? middle membership, future membership in 2020 percent of ukrainians continent. they had a free and open election where they elected young, which would put into law that you should be an independent. he was removed in a cool, which did not have them a chronic support. and i'm there after them been here to become like

a staging ground for the us get smash also. so i think get a many you can see themselves as being actively used upon between us and russia. so i do think that's some of this analogy, of course works in terms of the cuban missile crisis. this is obviously right, because this time yeah, let me give my name. matthew was looking to get in there, so go ahead. yeah. yeah. i think that the, the, the point you made sammy earlier about um, you know, and then during the cuban missile crisis, president kennedy decided not to use force or not to follow up on those who are threatening to use force is actually completely ah, inappropriate. here it is bloody more potent that is threatening to use force. he is threatening to kill tens of thousands of people. based on a false interpretation, a lie about nato threatening russia. how in the world in this crisis is nato

threatening? russia is when the united states and its allies send troops to, to nato member state to say if russia moves into our countries, we will respond militarily. but as bitin has said, if potent again invades ukraine, we will respond not with a single soldier on the ground, but with the economic sanctions. how is that the threat to use force in addition? and consequently that on hand, as i play devil's advocate here, matthew and, and flip the hat now and look at things from the russian perspective. could they not see things from the same perspective that the us all things in 1962 and say, well by virtue of considering to, to admit to crane into nato that would allow nato forces to be much too close to the russian. the hot land no, of course not because russia has already agreed that it voted not only in 1975, a helsinki final act,

but live in subsequent agreements to which mister decent referred a that it will not threatened to use military force against any european r o s e member state. assembling a 130000 troops surrounding a always see member state on 3 sides. that is clearly a violation of that 1975 commitment that was subsequently reflected in many other of international commitments of russia not to mention the 1094 budapest memorandum when russia pledged to respect ukraine's territorial integrity. if you crank gave up, it's nuclear weapons, so president putin knows that russia is a d fences alliance. it has only um, called into a called into force article 5, which calls for collected defense. in one instance. after the united states was attacked on september, 11th, nato has no plans, no doctrine, no operational plans to attack russian forces anywhere outside of nato's own space . so this is a canard, it, these are russian kremlin talking points. the head of the nato is violating these

international agreements that russia is in sharp breach of, and that there's any threat to use force against russia. there is a threat to use force for self defense of nato, not to attack russia on russian territory or less than 10 things around goto, pavel and moscow value said, maybe a week or 2. if all doesn't break out, that doesn't necessarily mean the end of this diplomatic crisis does it? will we witness appeared of perhaps escalating diplomatic and military tensions and perhaps all around the world? yes, we're seeing that happening right now. actually last year there was a massive rush and exercises and there was a landing of $10000.00 men, 2 hours from mayor and see that it happened not on the pregnant territory, but then crimea. so that was a dry run. and now we're again see moralists in the same waters and it's

a ready much bigger than ukraine. and that's the message coming from moscow that this is a serious security crisis. and it's more important. and we just saw several hours ago. there was an incident, goes to the korea islands when a pound or an american submarine and russian anti submarine for a get came at kind of a, maybe even 2 shots. maybe not. it's not clear but may be, the bombs were dropped. and of course, the rush is running right now. massive exercise in the sea of a horse in the sea. of course, the so called a best in our a fortress where russia hides strategic nuclear submarines from where they can shoot inter continental muscles at america. and they have to defend them against american attack submarines. and also there's a standard of developing between american and nato allied aircraft

carriers in the eastern mediterranean and a big russian naval force gathering there. so there can be outside of ukraine. there's no ukrainians in the, in the pacific and now ukrainian forces in the mediterranean. but so, but there could be actually skirmishes between in the air and on the sea and under the sea, between directly american and russian. a military which could lead to a global war. maybe you put a war very quickly. i can see that there should be some way to diffuse this and find a kind of good pro quo. i think everyone have agree on that last should be away. i think with a brief minute left, let me give it if i may, to glen and glen, looking at the big picture of all this, is this a readjustment of the balance of power since the strength and the unity of both? what was the soviet union today? russia and, and on the west, on the other hand,

that balance of power is different today obviously, and i think that's what we're seeing now. it's my job because the uniform order came to them and never smell there just, there's multiple our system. and this transition has been done properly. this is also some of that explains a lot of actions by the state. so for example, just briefly, jen, does that cost for us to, to be optimistic that humanity will not a lot and i late itself no, not, not necessarily analogy of historical analogy of the cuban missile crisis. and you have to remember the points, kennedy, they kept it a secret to the american public and actually made a compromise. so there's not always about the compromise seen as a weakness or appeasement us. we're here every time someone suggest a compromise with russia. i think it gives reason for being there, but it's a mistake. but again, i think more countries, especially germany and france,

are starting to realize some compromise to be found in order to avoid the fee. because again, from russia, seeing that the red language did come back away from. so there has to be some, some change in the mentality. because if this order we have for the 30 years where they went simply did nothing. russia can do it. i think it's painful for them to come to them, but i think that makes compromise a little more difficult at all. all right, so it's been a great discussion on fortune. we're gonna have to leave it there for now. and let's thank our guests very much for their contributions, pavel, matthew and glen. and thank you to for watching, you can see the show again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story, and also join the conversation on twitter. our handle varies at

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political malpractice, the bottom line on us politics and policy, and the impact on the world on al jazeera. ah, peter, adobe here in dough. how the top stories on al jazeera ukraine has called for talks within 48 hours between russia and members of the organization for security and cooperation in europe. the country's leader of law to me as lensky has invited us president joe biden to kiev, after a 50 minute phone call between the 2. i. jo castro has more from washington. what's telling is that this detail out of that call came not from the white house but from the office of the ukrainian president.