thing in my opinion, that this school is hoping to make a difference by shifting the narrative one step at a time chilling wolf, alta 0 for again. ok, ologist have unearth of 6 child mummies thought to have been sacrificed up to 1200 years ago. there were found at a pre income site to ne, if lima, it's believe that there was sacrificed to accompany a man into the off to life. oh, this is al jazeera, these you top stories. ukraine is demanding a meeting with russia and all the members of the european security group, the o. s. e. within the next 48 hours, he won't start dances from moscow about why more than a 100000 russian troops. house surrounded ukraine from nearly every side. the criminal insist it is not planning an invasion. u. s. president joe biden,

meanwhile, has been invited to ukraine by it's lead of a law to me is lensky. the past spoke on the phone on sunday. howdy, j. castro has moved from washington. zalinski invited biden to go to cave in the coming days, quote unquote, because the u. s. presidents presents there in the ukraine and capital would be crucial for de escalation again, there's no mention of this in the official read out that came from the white house and we are waiting for a response to that invitation. what we do know from the white house is that this call lasted about an hour, and that biden said to zalinski that he affirmed that the u. s. allies are ready to respond, he said swiftly and decisively. if russia furthers it's a good aggression against ukraine, the russian speakers gazer camilla valley ever husband cleared to keep competing at the winter olympics in beijing despite failing a doping test,

but never was suspended last week after testing positive for a bound substance that a pre olympic event, the decision allows valley ever to compete in the women's event on tuesday, which she's the favorite to win. the busiest trailing connecting canada to the u. s . has reopened off to protest to staged a blockade on the bridge for almost a week. the shutdown was pause, a protest across canada against covey. 19 vaccine mandates. hong kong government says the territories being overwhelmed by current virus infections. staley cases have increased more than 10 fold in the last 2 weeks. experts warn that they could be $28000.00 daily infections by the end of march. the number of deaths remains low . the elderly and children are getting priority for hospital treatment. those are you headlines need continues here now. they're often fight story compelling. we keeping our distance because it's actually quite dangerous. ambulances continued

the explosion in spite. i still don't feel like i actually know enough about living under fascism was like on equal broadcasting. thumbnails have been august al jazeera, proud recipient of the new york festivals broadcaster of the year for the 5th year running. ah, us in russian lead a spade reach, no breakthrough on ukraine. so is diplomacy reaching a debt and why is the crisis proving so how this whole is inside story? ah, ah, the hello. welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a than in the latest diplomatic attempt between the united states and russia to

resolve tensions of ukraine has achieved, apparently, nothing presidents, fuson and biden exchanged warnings and concerns over the phone. but little else. meanwhile, motor activity continues on both sides. moscow has been massing troops in russia and bellows near the border with ukraine. and the build up is raising fear is an invasion, is eminent. ukraine is receiving western support. its biggest ally for us is sending $200000000.00 worth of military 8, including. i'm a penetrating missiles and ammunition. the french presidency says rush has given no indication of an invasion of ukraine that came out of a conversation between the french and russian presidents. emanuel microns spoke again with lighted via foods by phone. on saturday, after his visit to moscow last week, person told my call nato members had failed to respond to russia. security demands

. micron has also been in touch with german chancellor. all i schultz and ukraine's president vladimir and ski to promote stability in europe. more countries are telling their citizens in ukraine to leave immediately. australia has evacuated, staff from its embassy in the united states, warned, it will not evacuate anyone if war broke out and has reduced its diplomatic mission . britain and canada are doing the same ukraine, coal, those moves premature though, the i, let's bring in our guests into the shower have joining us from moscow. pabo foger, how he's a defense and military analyst and a column is that no via better. in chicago, matthew browser is senior fellow at the atlantic council and a former diplomat to national security official at the white house. and in oslo. glen decent is professor of international relations at the university of southeast

in norway, an editor of russia in global affairs. welcome to all, if i could stop them with puzzle. does the outcomes the latest binding putin phone call indicate that perhaps diplomacy is heading towards the dead ends? oh, lot badly. there was no serious progress there to those. of course, the number of phone calls there was oh, so the secretary blinking talking glover often and the american defense secretary talking to show you go and go. so that in general you're awesome. of g from general start talking to general moly, so there's furry of, of phone calls. oh, involving the french president, the british you were us involved and they're up to now no big progress happening. but of course, it's better to talk not than not to talk, but the situation is extremely tense and get been worse. and the only good news

most likely is that it will be somehow resolved in a week or 2. or because the present, very high state of readiness cannot continue indefinitely. pavel tell me why you think it might be resolved in a week or 2 in particular. oh, i see the nether high, super high state of readiness of the russian military cannot continue indefinitely . they'll have to step down or go into action. and there had been movements of equipment for a long distance from the far east to the polish border from the far east to the mediterranean, from the north there and seized 2, again, black, sea and mediterranean. so these are ships will have to return these troops will have to return, though everyone will have to step down as it's in several weeks,

may be in march for sure. so it's a decision should come technically much earlier and touch or go, it's either go or, or it's a, it's a stand down. all right, matthews, step down. all step out. i'll step out. but some things got to happen. but apparently not on the diplomatic cur. frank was the by them putting phone cold past one of the last shots for diplomacy. well, it depends on how you look at diplomacy. i mean, because a war is the continuation of politics. by other means, we always have to keep in mind that the objective, in this case of the one who's provoked the conference president, the, the crisis president important is political. so his political goals, as we can clearly see now, are to prevent ukraine from ever joining nato to destabilizing ukraine. but also in the bigger sense it's to, it's to push back nato's influence in eastern europe and restore a sense of russian greatness in europe. so those are political goals,

and president putin has used the chosen to use the threat of military force and the threat of a full scale invasion to pursue those goals through diplomacy. diplomacy is happening. and so president putin has not chosen yet to employ these massive capabilities that he has deployed. and so i would argue that diplomacy has succeeded so far in deterring president putin from invading ukraine. again and diplomacy has succeeded precisely because nato has maintained a united front and has said the costs of an invasion of another invasion will be high, will be painful. you don't want to do this and i think that has given president putin pause, had there been no united front. as under the obama administration of nato. had there been no clear sign of high cost that would be imposed for invasion of crimea and of don. thus in this case, we would have seen the troop movements already by russia. what will happen in the

next couple of weeks? that's going to be up to president vote. that's interesting. whether he think michelle getting here and rats, matthew and asked puzzled to comment them on that. do you agree with that analysis, pavel, that had it not been for the united front demonstrated 5 the u. s. and its allies that perhaps who would have already seen a russian invasion of ukraine or further russian invasion of ukraine now. whoa, you may be, we don't know. i mean, it's like, you know, in the summer of 1914, before the war began, there was lots of diplomacy and phone calls. and you could say that the phone calls prevented the war, but actually they didn't. as so saying, we should have to might mean see real step down of forces before we can actually talk call with the right or i i interrupt to do so i'm going to let you finish your thought before we bring in glenn. well, thanks sammy. so i was just saying that, you know,

what will happen in the next few weeks depends upon whether or not nato is able to maintain this united stance. the solidarity in demonstrating how high the costs could be of an innovation of a re invasion. and so, you know, i'm, i'm a little bit concerned that in recent days it's become clear that many of the us european allies are staying. they're not in favor of severe the most severe economic counter measures, such as unplugging, russia from swift, from the international electronic payment system. i think president putin is looking mad as a sign that he can turn off the pressure and play on the fear that germany and france and other big natal member states have of another war in europe. president putin is really effective at using the threat of force to frighten the us european allies. now all of this is coming after a period of intense diplomacy, lately, glen, we've had borrowed johnson, emanuel mac, raul, anthony blink, and all visiting care of all moscow. or perhaps even both. what does it achieve so

far? for sure. i mean, we're kind of talking already about has it achieved stopping an invasion that might have already taken place or do you know it has achieved for sure so far? well, i think something obviously has been achieved with this discussion again for us. the main objective is for, it's almost to, for 1st to resolve the internal crisis in ukraine, which means you have to pressure the west to, to push ukraine towards actually abiding monday means to agreement. so again, keep promised that it would engage with the boss and grabbed the us, push, get your grant, abide by disagreement instead there pumping in weapons, which could enable him to take back this region by force. so this is one of the things attempting to deter and also pressure to actually follow through with disagreement. the 2nd, the on the regional level,

which is which is the team security, as we know throughout the $990.00 s. all of our c o. s. the partners agreed to the principal of indivisible security, so one such an expand a secure expense another month during those days, we could ignore it because russia last week, obviously not week anymore and demanding very clear security guarantees. so we also nato abide by the agreements that we have signed. so i think that given that we're actually talking about this, which we haven't done over many years. it's just that just some progress. otherwise, i wouldn't disagree some extent was the former person speaking or because i think the fact that me was not doing it. i think that's actually can be a positive thing because within a lot of the continental europeans, i telling the russia was that, well, maybe we can come to an agreement and maybe we can push you to bind my disagreement

. menu security deals and business. i think what's preventing or from happening because russia obviously, you know, i love to lose from an invasion that doesn't want to use force, but it has the red lines. and at the moment so far, i would say france, germany and the fact countries are not pushing or following the u. s. line on this i think that's actually preventing from. okay. interesting. some of your comments to make us think back to 962, and of course this is not the 1st time we've seen the u. s. in a position of trying to convince russia to back down in a military confrontation at the height of the cold war, you'll recall the cuban missile crisis president john kennedy, urging where he was urged rather, buys advises to invade cuba. after the discovery of soviet nuclear massage installations there, but kennedy rejected that and what became known as the cuban missile crisis. not the beginning of the 13 day stand off, kennedy ordered a naval blockade of cuba to prevent soviet reinforcements and demanded moscow

remove the weapons. kennedy then warmed cube, his leader, fidel castro, of the dangers. his people were facing the prospect of ass, trying to destroy the sights, followed by an invasion that could lead to the deaths of thousands. now, while war seemed inevitable, at one point kennedy's choice of diplomatic pressure over minute reaction eventually brought both sides together to make concessions, saving both countries and the rest of the world from all our nuclear war. i'm wondering when we look back at that puzzle. why is it proving so hard this time to have that kind of deal between the 2 sides where they come to some understanding to pull back forces from areas close to each other's borders. well there though, so didn't happen in a fortnight. it was a process of threats and counter threats. and in the end of the

signs, they signed it to step down from the, from the brink. of course, there were other, there was another similar crisis that's and $73.00. and during the, in the end of the arab israeli war, when russia was prepared, there were several hours left for before a number of brush and airborne divisions should have landed in egypt together with nuclear weapons to fight these railways. and the americans were lifted. the defcon level and decided to also send the same $82.00 division airborne that's our deploying. and poland was prepared to deploy it to israel to flight, to russians. and there was kissinger gabbing this a shuttle diplomacy that more or less a secured an agreement, an agreement that was hell holding for a long time,

wack in the cuban crisis. there was an agreement that actually was standing there for decades after it was reached. that's what we should be looking now for, not just simply as a kind of tactical de escalation for so for several weeks or several months. but for an agreement that we're actually getting a gift, prevent this particular crisis from recreating somewhere in the summer. i you need someone who's going to be working on such an agreement that should be effective for a shuttle diplomacy. well, president bach her on tried to do that. apparently, he is not well equipped forward because france can't pressurized, no one, even ukraine into doing what your brain does not want to do and can't pressure as rush and can't pressurized state. so you need someone who can extend. that's an impulse. that's awesome. let me jump in here because that's kind of related to what glen was saying a moment ago. and let me take this question then to gland and say is the will

perhaps today a different place than in 1900. 62 during the arab israeli conflicts where as you've been saying, glen, basically, nato isn't as united as it was before. and also, perhaps russia is not as strong as it was during the peak of the cold war under the days of the soviet union is that perhaps less of, of an incentive because of that situation for both sides to quickly reach a resolution? well, obviously, i mean, the moment russia, it's obviously much, much weaker. the soviet union was that it also means that in europe, russia, it's not, it's not the severest it used to be. so this idea that, you know, russia was the restore of the soviet union, western europe, it's, you know, this things come to be taken up seriously. and you also see by the expenditure the

military expenditures don't spend that much on weapons simply because they don't see russia being this much, this big of a threat. and also there's more empathy now towards, towards this idea of russia. and that of course they also have the right for security and if they're denied security, then they will have to respond in a way which, which undermines the security of last year. let me tell you what, perhaps ukrainians have a different perspective who's seen, of course, the eastern part of the country and don bass go through an invasion. what they would see is a russian invasion well meant in ukraine, and to be somewhat of a phone because we, we keep saying that the us supports ukraine. but let's be honest. what happened when they offered ukraine? made a membership future membership in 2020 percent of ukrainians wanted it. they had a free and open election where they elected young, which would put into law that you should be an independent. he was removed in

a cool which did not have them a chronic support. and thereafter, than been steered to become like a staging ground for the us aggression against russia. so. so i think get many you can see themselves as being actively used upon between us and russia. so i do think some of this analogy, of course, works in terms of the cuban missile crisis. this is obviously right because this time yeah. let me give matthew was looking to get in there. so go ahead. yeah. yeah. i think that the, the point you made sammy earlier about um, you know, and then during the cuban missile crisis, president kennedy decided not to use force or not to follow up on those who are threatening to use force is actually completely inappropriate. here it is bloody more potent that is threatening to use force. he is threatening to kill tens of

thousands of people. based on a false interpretation, a lie about nato threatening russia. how in the world in this crisis is nato threatening? russia is when the united states and its allies send troops to, to nato member state, to say if russia moves into our countries, we will respond militarily. but as bitin has said, if potent again invades ukraine, we will respond not with a single soldier on the ground, but with the economic sanctions. how is that the threat to use force in addition, and consequently the on hand, as i play devil's advocate here, matthew, and flip the hat now and look at things from the russian perspective. could they not see things from the same perspective, that the us all things in 1962 and say, well by virtue of considering to, to admit ukraine into nato, that would allow nato forces to be much too close to the russian, the heartland. no, of course not,

because russia has already agreed that it voted not only $975.00 of helsinki final act, but live in subsequent agreements to which mister decent referred a that it will not threatened to use military force against any european are always c members state assembling 130000 troops. surrounding a o is the member state on 3 sides. that is clearly a violation of that 975 commitment that was subsequently reflected in many other of international commitments of russia not to mention the 1094 budapest memorandum when russia pledged to respect ukraine's territorial integrity. if ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons, so i'm, president putin knows that russia is a d fences alliance. it has only um, called in to a called into force article 5, which calls for collected defense in one instance. after the united states was attacked on september, 11th, nato has no plans, no doctrine,

no operational plans to attack russian forces anywhere outside of nato's own space . so this is a canard. it. these are russian kremlin talking points. and the head of the nato is violating these international agreements that russia is in sharp breach of and that there's any threat to use force against russia. there is a threat to use force for self defense of natal, not to attack russia on russian territory. or let's turn things around goto, pavel and moscow, beverly said, maybe a week or 2. if all doesn't break out, that doesn't necessarily mean the end of this diplomatic crisis does it? will we witness appeared of perhaps escalating diplomatic and military tensions and perhaps old around the world? yes, we're seeing that happening right now. actually last year there was a massive rush and exercises and there was a landing of up to $10000.00 men,

2 hours from mayor and see that it happened not only pregnant territory, but then crimea. so that was a dry run. and now we're again see moralists in the same waters and it's a ready much bigger than your brain. and that's the message coming from moscow that this is a serious security crisis. and it's more important. and we just saw several hours ago. there was an incident goes to the korea islands when a pound or an american submarine and the russian and the submarines for a get came at kind of a maybe even 2 shots. maybe not. it's not clear, but maybe the bombs were dropped. and of course, the rush is running right now. massive exercise in the sea of a horse in the sea. of course, the so called a best in our a fortress where russia hides its strategic nuclear submarines from where they can shoot inter continental missiles at the america. and they have to defend them

against the american effects of marines. and also there's a standard of developing between american and nato allied aircraft carriers in the eastern mediterranean and a big rush and naval force gathering there. so there can be outside of ukraine, there's no ukrainians in the in the pacific. and now ukrainian forces in the mediterranean, but still, but there could be actually skirmishes between in the air and on the sea and under the sea, between directly american and russian military which could lead to a global war, maybe nuclear war very quickly. or i, i can see that there should be some way to diffuse this and find the kind of good pro quo. i think everyone have agree on that last as i should be away. i think with a brief minute left. let me give it if i may, to glen and glen, looking at the big picture of all this, is this

a readjustment of the balance of power since the strength and the unity of both? what was the soviet union today? russia and, and on the west, on the other hand, that balance of power is different today obviously, and i think that's what we're seeing now. it's my job because the uniform order came to an end for smell. they're just a small to par system. and this transition has been done properly, and this is also some of it explains a lot of actions by the states. so for example, just briefly again, does that cause for us to, to be optimistic that humanity will not a lot annihilate itself? no, not, not necessarily use the knology analogy of the cuban missile crisis and you have to remember that at that point, kennedy, they kept it the secret to the american public and actually made the compromise. so there's not always that the compromise to see and as a weakness or appeasement us. we're here every time someone compromise with russia

. i think it gives reason for being there. pessimistic about again, i think more countries, especially germany and france, are starting to realize some compromise to be found in order to avoid the fee. because again, from russia, seeing that the red line which did come back away from. so that has to be some, some change in the mentality. because if this order we have for the 30 years where they went to nothing, russia can do it. i think it's painful for them to accept or as come to them. i think that makes compromise a little more difficult at all. all right, so it's been a great discussion on fortune. we're gonna have to leave it there for now. let's thank our guests very much for their contributions, pavel, matthew and glen. and thank you to for watching, you can see the show again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com,

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ah ukraine demands amazing with a kremlin as diplomatic efforts and warnings intensify against a feared russian invasion. ah ha, i'm molly decided this is out there. a lie from day one are also coming up. russian teenage figure skater. camilla valley ever is clay to keep competing in the beijing olympics despite filing a dough contest. oh, cool. do all oh.