tv Inside Story Al Jazeera February 14, 2022 2:30pm-3:01pm AST
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stone pass was grabbed by cooper cup who was also named the game's most valuable player. i just feel so undeserving of all these awards and accolades. i just feel like i've, i've played from a, i've played a from place of freedom. i've just allowed myself to be in the moment every single time that there was going to be that there was going to be guys alongside me to will make this thing come to live here on the homes. are so thankful for them. the franchise only returned to law sandy's 6 years ago. the city is now in possession of the nfl biggest prize. santa hm. news al jazeera. ah, this is al jazeera, these huge help stories. germany's chancellor has arrived in the ukrainian capital key. if i'll have schultz is the latest western leader to go on a diplomatic mission to avert a fade russian invasion of ukraine. he's expected moscow on tuesday. natasha butler
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has the latest from keith. so will be meeting ukrainian president followed him. is lensky hearing a key? the to talk of course, about the situation which is very a tense indeed. they will also discuss the possibility of germany offering more financial aid to ukraine. but there's been some frustration among some ukranian officials with germany over berlin's refusal to offer any weapons to ukraine. so that is likely also to come up in discussions today. a palestinian teenager has been shot dead by his writing security forces during unrest near the city of gin and the occupied westbank. no good 11 others were injured when troops opened fire on people protesting against the demolition of a home. it belong to a palestinian prisoner accused of killing and israeli settlers. back in december.
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activists have condemned, staunch demolitions as a form of collective punishment. the russian figures gazer came in a valley ever has been claimed to continue competing at the winter olympics and beijing, despite filing a doping test, she was suspended last week off to testing positive bonds. substance such an event before the games with decision allows very ever to compete in the women's event which takes place on tuesday. but isn't 3 indian states accosting ballots? local elections. people in one region of india's most popular state with a provision are among those voting area. witness major protests by farmers angry with proposals to father, open up the sector to private players. the busiest tried lane connecting canada to the u. s. has reopened off to protested staged a blockade was shot down, was paws a protest against coven 19 vaccine mandates that he had lost. these continues here now to zara. aunt in san stories they with us
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news news, news. news on us in russia latest space reach. no breakthrough on ukraine. is diplomacy reaching a debt? and why is the crisis proving so hard to hold? this is inside story. ah hello, welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a, than in the latest diplomatic attempt between the united states and russia to
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resolve tensions over ukraine has achieved apparently nothing. presidents, fuson and biden exchanged warnings and concerns over the phone. but little else. meanwhile, note for activity continues on both sides. moscow has been massing troops in russia and bellows near the border with ukraine. and the build up is raising fear is an invasion, is eminent. ukraine is receiving western support. its biggest ally for us is sending $200000000.00 worth of minutes for 8, including alma, penetrating missiles and ammunition. the french presidency says rush has given no indication of an invasion of ukraine that came out of a conversation between the french and russian presidents. emanuel microns spoke again with the light of a 13 by phone on saturday after his visit to moscow last week. put in, told my call nato members had failed to respond to russia. security demands. micron has also been in touch with german chancellor. all schultz and ukraine's president
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vladimir and ski to promote stability in europe. more countries are telling their citizens in ukraine to leave immediately. australia has evacuated, staff from its embassy and key of the united states warned it will not evacuate any one if war broke out and has reduced its diplomatic mission, britain and canada, of doing the same ukraine. coal, those moves premature though. the alright, let's bring in our guest in the shower have joining us from moscow. pabo foger. how he's a defense and military analyst and a columnist that no via get better in chicago. matthew bryce is senior fellow at the atlantic council and a former diplomat and national security official at the white house. and in, although glen decent is professor of international relations at the university of southeast, in norway and editor of russia in global affairs. welcome to all,
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if i could stop them with puzzle. does the outcomes the latest binding putin phone call indicate that perhaps diplomacy is heading towards the dead end? how long dangly there was no serious progress there to those of course the number of phone calls. there was, oh, so the secretary blinking talking to avril funding and the american defense secretary talking to sure you go so that in general, you're asked him of chief of general staff talking to general moley. so there's a furry of, of phone calls oh, involving the french president, the british you were us involved and they're up to now no big progress happening. but of course it's better to talk not than not to talk. but the situation is extremely tense and get being worse. and the only good news most likely is that it
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will be somehow resolved in a week or 2. or because the present very high state of readiness cannot continue indefinitely. pavel tell me why you think it might be resolved in a week or 2 in particular? oh, i see a super high state of readiness of the russian military cannot continue indefinitely . they'll have to say that now or go into action. and there have been movements of equipment for a long distance from the far east to the polish border from the far east to to the mediterranean, from the north there and ceased to again, black sea and mediterranean. so these 2 ships will have to return these troops will have to return, though everyone will have to step down, as it's in several weeks, may be in march for sure. so it's
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a decision should come technically much earlier and such or go, it's either go or, or it's a, it's a stand down. all right, matthews, step dad on all step out. i'll step out. but some things got to happen. but apparently not on the diplomatic curve. frank was the biden putin phone call past one of the last shots for diplomacy? well, it depends on how you look at diplomacy. i mean, because a war is the continuation of politics. by other means, we always have to keep in mind that the objective, in this case of the one who's provoked the conference president, the, the crisis president, putin, is political. so his political goals, as we can clearly see now, are to prevent ukraine from ever joining nato. to destabilizing ukraine, but also in the bigger sense it's to, it's to push back nato's influence in eastern europe and restore a sense of russian greatness in europe. so those are political goals. and president putin has used the, in the chosen to use the threat of military force and the threat of
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a full scale invasion to pursue those goals through diplomacy. diplomacy is happening. and so president putin has not chosen yet to employ these massive capabilities that he has deployed. and so i would argue that diplomacy has succeeded so far in deterring president putting from invading ukraine again. and diplomacy has succeeded precisely because nato has maintained a united front and has said the costs of an invasion of another invasion will be high, will be painful. you don't want to do this and i think that has given president putin pause, had there been no united front. as under the obama administration of nato. had there been no clear sign of high cost that would be imposed for invasion of crimea and of don. thus in this case, we would have seen the troop movements already by russia. what will happen in the next couple of weeks? that's going to be up to president vote. that's interesting whether he thank based
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on getting killed and rats, matthew, and asked puzzled to comment them on that. do you agree with that analysis? probably had it not been for the united front, demonstrated by the u. s. and its allies, that perhaps we would have already seen a russian invasion of ukraine or further russian invasion of ukraine now. whoa, you might be, we don't know. i mean, it's like, you know, in the summer of 1914, before the war began, there was loss of diplomacy in phone calls. and you could say that the phone calls prevented the war, but actually they didn't as so saying, we should have to might mean see a real step down of forces before we can actually talk like that doesn't close and we'll miss the right. all right, i interrupted you, i'm going to let you finish your thought before we bring in glenn. well, they sent me. so i was just saying that, you know, what will happen in the next few weeks depends upon whether or not nato is able to
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maintain this united stance. the solidarity in demonstrating how high the costs could be of an invasion of a re invasion. and so, you know, i'm, i'm a little bit concerned that in recent days it's become clear that many of the u. s . is european allies are staying. they're not in favor of severe the most severe economic countermeasures such as unplugging, russia from swift, from the international electronic payment system. i think president putin is looking mad as a sign that he can turn off the pressure and play on the fear that germany and france and the other big natal member states have of another war in europe. president putin is really effective at using a threat of force to frighten us is european allies. all of this is coming after a period of intense diplomacy, lightly gland. we've had boris johnson, emanuel mackerel, antony, blinking old visiting care of or moscow. or perhaps even both. what is it achieved
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so far for chaw? i mean, we were kind of talking already about has it achieved stopping an invasion that might have already taken place or do we know it has achieved for sure so far? well, i think something obviously has been achieved with this discussion. so again, the for us are the main objective is for it to fall 1st to resolve the internal crisis in ukraine, which means they have to pressure the west to. ready to push ukraine towards actually abiding by the means to agreement. so again, keep promised that it would engage with them both and drive it upon us. and push your grant by disagreement instead of pumping in weapons which could enable him to take back is region by force. so this is one of the things attempting to deter and also pressure to actually follow through with this agreement. the 2nd this on the regional level, which is which is the security as we know throughout the 990 s o
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s s e o s. the partners agreed to the principle of individual security. so one such an expand a secure expense. another month, during those days we could ignore it because russia last week, obviously not week anymore. and it's demanding very clear security guarantees. so we also made by the agreements that we have signed. so i think that's given that we're actually talking about this, which we haven't done over many years. it's just that there's some progress. otherwise i would disagree some extent was the former person speaking or because i think the fact that needed not do that. i think that's actually can be a positive thing because within at the end of the continental european, i telling the russia was that maybe we can come to an agreement and maybe we can push you to bind my disagreement. menu, security deals and business i think was preventing or from happening because russia
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obviously, you know, i love to lose from an invasion. it doesn't want to use force, but it has the red lines. and at the moment so far, i would say france, germany, the fact countries are not pushing or following the u. s. line on this, i think that's actually preventing from interesting. some of your comments make us think back to 962. and of course, this is not the 1st time we've seen the us in a position of trying to convince russia to back down in a military confrontation at the height of the cold war. you'll recall the cuban missile crisis president john kennedy urging, where he was urged rather buys advises to invade cuba after the discovery of soviet nuclear miss on installations there. but kennedy rejected that and what became known as the cuban missile crisis. not the beginning of the 13 day standoff, kennedy ordered a naval blockade of cuba to prevent soviet reinforcements and demanded moscow removed the weapons. kennedy then warmed cube, his leader. fidel castro,
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of the dangers his people were facing the prospect of ass, trying to destroy the sites, followed by an invasion that could lead to the deaths of thousands. now, while war seemed inevitable, at one point kennedy's choice of diplomatic pressure over minute reaction eventually brought both sides together to make concessions, saving both countries and the rest of the world from all our nuclear war. i'm wondering when we look back at that puzzle. why is it proving so hard this time to have that kind of deal between the 2 sides where they come to some understanding to pull back forces from areas close to each other's borders. well there though, so didn't happen in a fortnight. it was a process of threats and counter threats. and in the end of the
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signs, they signed it to step down from the, from the brink. of course, there were other, there was another similar crisis that in $73.00. and during the, in the end of the arab israeli war, when russia was prepared, there were several hours left for before a number of brush and airborne divisions should have landed in egypt together with nuclear weapons to fight these railways and the americans were lifted. the defcon level and decided to also send the same $82.00 division, an airborne with our deploying and poland was repaired to deploy it to israel to fight the russians. and there was kissinger gabbing this shuttle diplomacy that morrow. s a secured an agreement, an agreement that was hell holding for a long time, wack in the cuban crisis. there was an agreement that actually was standing there
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for decades after it was reached. that's what we should be looking now for. not just simply as a kind of tactical de escalation for, so for several weeks or several months. but for an agreement that will actually getting a gift prevent this particular crisis from recreating somewhere in the summer. i, you need someone who's going to be working on such an agreement. there should be a effective a shuttle diplomacy. well, president marker on tried to do that. apparently he is not well equipped forward because france can pressurized no one. even you brain into doing what your brain does not want to do, and you can't pressure as russian can't pressurize the united states. so you need someone who can extension and pull that off. and let me jump in here cuz that's kind of related to what glen was saying a moment ago. and let me take this question then to glen and say is the will perhaps today
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a different place than in 1900. 62 during the arab israeli conflicts where as you've been saying, glen, basically, nato isn't as united as it was before. and also, perhaps russia is not as strong as it was during the peak of the cold war under the days of the soviet union is that perhaps less of, of an incentive because of that situation for both sides to quickly reach a resolution? well, obviously, i mean, at the moment, russia and thomas much, much weaker than what the soviet union was. but that also means that in europe, threats, russia, it's not, it's not the severest used to be. so this idea, you know, russia was to restore the soviet union or western europe. it's, you know, this things come to be taken out seriously. and you also see by the expenditure the military expenditures, their appeal. don't spend that much on weapons simply because they don't see russia
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being this much, this big of a threat. and also there's more empathy now towards, towards this being russia. and that, of course, they also have the right for security. and if they're denied security, then they will have to respond in a way which, which undermines the security of europe last year. let me tell you what, perhaps ukrainians have a different perspective who's seen, of course, the eastern part of their country. and don bass go through an invasion. what they would see is a russian invasion i meant in ukraine to be somewhat of a pond because we, we keep saying that the us supports ukraine. let's be honest. what happened when they offered ukraine? middle membership, future membership in 2020 percent of ukrainians on it. they had a free and open election where they elected young, which would put into law that you should be an independent. he was removed in
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a cool, which did not have them a chronic support. and thereafter than been, you know, tier to become like a staging ground for the us aggression against russia. so. so i think get many and you can see themselves as being actively used upon between us and russia. so i do think some of this analogy, of course, works in terms of the cuban missile crisis. this is obviously right because this time yeah. let me give matthew was looking to get in there. so go ahead. yeah. yeah. i think that the, the, the point you made sammy earlier about um, you know, and then during the cuban missile crisis, president kennedy decided not to use force or not to follow up on those who are threatening to use force is actually completely ah, inappropriate. here it is bloody more potent that is threatening to use force. he is threatening to kill tens of thousands of people. based on a false interpretation,
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a lie about nato threatening russia. how in the world in this crisis is nato threatening? russia is when the united states and its allies send troops to, to nato member state to say if russia goes into our countries, we will respond militarily. but as bitin has said, if potent again invades ukraine, we will respond not with a single soldier on the ground, but with the economic sanctions. how is that the threat to use force in addition, and consequently on hand? as i play devil's advocate here, matthew and, and flipped the hat now and look at things from the russian perspective. could they not see things from the same perspective that the us all things in 962 and say, well by virtue of considering to, to admit ukraine into nato, that would allow nato forces to be much too close to the russian. the hot land no, of course not because russia has already agreed that it voted not only in 1975 of
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helsinki finalize but live in subsequent agreements to which mister decent referred a that it will not threatened to use military force against any european are always c members, state assembling 830000 troops surrounding a always see member state on 3 sides. that is clearly a violation of that 975 commitment that was subsequently reflected in many other of international commitments of russia not to mention in 1094 budapest memorandum when russia pledged to respect ukraine's territorial integrity. if you crane gave up its nuclear weapons, so president putin knows that russia is a d fences alliance. it has only um, called in to a called into force article 5, which calls for collected defense in one instance. after the united states was attacked on september, 11th, nato has no plans, no doctrine, no operational plans to attack russian forces anywhere outside of nato's own space
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. so this is a canard. it. these are russian kremlin talking points. the head of the nato is violating these international agreements that russia is in sharp breach of, and that there's any threat to use force against russia. there is a threat to use force for self defense of nato, not to attack russia on russian territory. or let's turn things around goto, pavel and moscow, beverly said, maybe a week or 2. if all doesn't break out, that doesn't necessarily mean the end of this diplomatic crisis does it? will we witness appeared of perhaps escalating diplomatic and military tensions and perhaps old around the world? yes, we're seeing that happening right now. actually last year there was a massive rush and exercises and there was a landing of $10000.00 men, 2 hours from mayor, and see that it happened not only pregnant territory,
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but then crimea. so that was a dry run. and now we're again see more west in the same waters and it's a ready much bigger than ukraine. and that's the message coming from moscow that this is a serious security crisis. and it's more important. and we just saw several hours ago. there was an incident, goes to the korea islands when a pound or an american submarine and russian anti submarine frigate came at times. they may be even 2 shots, may be knock. it's not clear, but may be, the bombs were dropped. and of course, the rush is running right now, a massive exercise in the sea of a horse in the sea of a corkscrew, the so called a best t n r. a fortress where russia hides its strategic nuclear submarines from where they can shoot inter continental muscles at america. and they have to defend them against american attacks of marines. and also there's
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a standard of developing between american and native allied aircraft carriers in the eastern mediterranean and a big rush and naval force gathering there. so there can be outside of ukraine, there's no ukrainians in the, in the pacific. and now you're creating in forces in the mediterranean, but so, but there could be actually skirmishes between in the air and on the sea and under the sea, between directly american and russian. a military which could lead to a global war, maybe nuclear war, very quickly. i can see that there should be some way to diffuse and find a kind of good pro quo. i think everyone had to agree on that last, but there should be a way to diffuse. i think with a brief minute left. let me give it. if i may, to glen and glen, looking at the big picture of all this, is this a readjustment of the balance of power since the strength and the unity of both?
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what was the soviet union today? russia and, and on the west, on the other hand, that balance of power is different today obviously, and i think that's what we're seeing now. it's my job because the uniform order came to them and smells are just small depart system. and this transition has been done properly, and this is also some of that explains a lot of actions by the states. so for example, just briefly again, does that cost for us to, to be optimistic that humanity will not a lot annihilate itself? no, no, not necessarily analogy of the cuban missile crisis and you have to remember the points, kennedy, they kept it a secret to the american public actually made the compromise. so there's not always that the compromise to see and that's a weakness or appeasement. every time someone suggest a compromise with process,
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i think it gives reason for being pessimistic about again, i think more countries, especially germany, starting to realize some compromise to be found in order to avoid the fee. because again, from russia, seeing that the red line was to come back away from. so that has to be some, some change in the mentality. because if this order we have for the 30 years where they went to nothing, russia can do it. i think it's painful for them to accept or ask come to i think this makes compromise a little more difficult as well. all right. it's been a great discussion unfortunately. don't have to leave it there for now. let's thank our gas very much for that contribution. pavel, matthew and glen, i'm thank you too for watching you can see the show again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com
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