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developments that are rapidly changing the world. we live in, what do you think's been driving diploma quality market? counting the cost on al jazeera, global food prices rising at an alarming rate, worsening inflation, and making it difficult for families around the world. well, will it mean for vanderbilt communities? how long is the trend continue? this is inside stores. ah. hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's, a van food and energy prices are rats. historic highs around the globe and inflation is expected to rise in the coming months. the united nations food agency is warning the higher costs of putting people at risk,

especially those living in developing countries while in rich nations, it sparking anger and seeing politicians scramble for a solution. in the united states, inflation hit its highest levels in 40 years. in the united kingdom, hundreds of people march this week, protesting against rising inflation, tax increases and higher energy bills. and in eastern europe, latin america and the pacific people have also been finding the high cost of food to be too much. let's take a look at some of the biggest price hikes in recent months spent in south africa. basic food items are more expensive than they were a year ago. 6.3 percent higher. according to statistics. the same try and goes for new zealand, where food price is increased by 4.5 percent in december, the highest in 10 years. in india, the retail inflation rates rose to a 6 month high of 5.59 percent in december. largely fueled by the pandemic

in canada. food and energy prices are also going up, rising by 5.7 percent for grocery items compared to last year. and in the u. s. egg and meet prices. some of the most expensive, at 7.4 percent higher than they were a year ago. the well, let's bring in our guest to the show we have joining us from new castle in the u. k . jeff camera, assistant professor and supply chain management at new castle university's business school, also in the u. k. but in brighton, lawrence had that the executive director at the global alliance for improve nutrition and in i roby. peter come a link and he's the pal africa director at oxfam international. welcome to you on if i could stop with lauren, so lawrence, the un food price index last month showed arise towards rec,

hold levels. why is it all down to the post? can demik recovery? oh, thank sammy. yeah. the levels are really high highest since 975 in real terms. and i think there are 3 big drivers climate covered and conflict on the climate side of things. we've got some pretty severe droughts and some key food producing areas. argentine malaysia, indonesia, ukraine, russia, and this is really driving prices up because supply has been interrupted on the covert front. we know that moving food around in food systems from a farm to the fork is much more complicated undercover restrictions and locked downs. and when you can't move food around, you can't really equalize supply and demand. and conflict is, you know, conflict is we seeing the tensions around ukraine and russia, the tensions and if you know them, my gerry and northern mozambique,

northern can yet these kind of tensions make it difficult for people to apply for food actors, farmers, producers, processes to plan and so the uncertainty in the system and that tends to push prices up as well. so jeff, is it a perfect storm of some of the factors that lawrence is talking about, that climate covey that conflict. i'm trying to see if i can add another see to that change of supply. yes, absolutely. i think i completely agree with the point that lowers x rays and they definitely are having an impact of the supply chain. so one of the reasons behind this increase the increase in prices is the cost of the input in the supply chains are increasing. so. busy labor labor costs are on the right. energy cost, fuel costs, so everything is on the right line just by the let's break it down very simple tensor while all those input elements going up. yeah,

so i think it's one of the biggest reason there's the increase in the the, the price of a wholesale, a wholesale gas which has increased by 250 percent. because of one of the reason that we are not producing an energy as much energy as we used to. that's one reason because of all the drops and be in the southern america. and also we have had been less been less someone in 2021. so we're not producing enough energy here, and there are too much rain and in india and china because the climate change and not have it all the bonds of life. so the agriculture have been and so that has meant to increase and prices also, i mean more closer to home and they you case because of the rise and the, the wholesale natural gas gap, which is a cree increase in the 40 live and production, the lighter price has increase,

which have led to increase prices also that has led to an increase in the cost of carbon dioxide, which is a byproduct of the production. and we know, you know, we've been dealing with it for the past year that you know, the point of which is the major bar up c o 2 in the, in the u. k. it keeps building down. the government agree, the sharp them deal, and them a lot of money for free, free month, and then get off of those 3 months again. so these are the home additional factors that are really increasing price of the input. and one thing is that also because of, you know, as we are trying to recover the economy can cope with all the, all dependent demand is on the rise. so people are kind of ordering more and more businesses are ordering more. busy and more, and we are seeing the classic effect an auction bear as you order more, the prizes increase and you know, be able to meet that demands. which of these combination of factors that leading to all this really does sound like a perfect storm you from to the a few other questions in my mind, jasper will come back in

a moment. i want to bring in peter and say, what is the bottom line of all of this? especially if people in less developed countries and they're going to be going hungry, facing starvation, the nutrition, what are we looking at? yeah, thanks a lot of my stuff. i think in addition to, i mean, the colleague who i've spoken about in sunday was spoken how rightly you say that these have been escalated by the trooper, she impact coughlin climate and coffee. but i think that the, the thing that we need to underscore in, but even before this could be done before, i mean the order to food problem and then in a good part of the one, particularly in africa and the low income countries. and this is lagging because over afraid of being the food system which high productivity, he's going down increasingly badly because of inputs which are going high. but a lot of that is because all stained many tickets of dish investment on small food for me. those probably produce us small from last month's bill from or there's

a lot of this investment in productivity. in africa. they have been for many as a medium entity invest at the spend percent of the budget on, on, on, on agriculture and food production that has not been possible dracula might wash. now because many of the economies increasingly suffocated and increasing public debt crisis. so there's a huge problem, the global foot system, the capture by the corporate sector in the food system is i see where the problem is and we're not investing in productivity. we're not in bed. why not peter? so this is i think that as i said, there's a cup job as attendance to pull up job by the be cooperates, which is also suffocating the policy space for our governments reinvesting the fact that there's been a lot of emphasis on like scotland, best investments. and this investment on small producers, and i think the best way it's basically saying please, different countries are falling victim to big multinational corporations.

absolutely. at least for, for, for, for africa way. i speaking from yes, that's exactly the interesting lines. do you agree with that? well, you know, i do, i do think there's an over concentration of power amongst the corporates, in africa and south asia. and this is, this is a, this is an issue. but i think a big part of the problem is just government's not investing us. as peter said in, in, you know, we, we, for the 1st time ever, we have a science based roadmap on how to end hunger by 2030. we know what to do, and we even have it cost it out. it will cost an extra $33000000000.00 a year, and that sounds like a lot, but it's only really a doubling of what we already spend. and it's, it's, it's, it basically the equivalent of the increase in that wealth of the world's 10 richest billionaires over the last year long the, our government railing to do that being has of mismanagement on their part or is that is the situation. there's no need to seem to be saying because there's,

there's a lack of policy spaces. i think the would the nice tourney coin there because of the big multinational really right now i don't really group in the malibu, there is the african nations have a target of 10 percent. they've set themselves that, that target and the last report by the african union on progress towards those targets shows really some countries doing very well. but, but most of the countries actually lagging it far behind. i think, you know, the former head of the u. n. food agency always used to say, there is no union for hungry people. there's no way they can have their voice properly heard. they can't put pressure on government's very well unless it comes through the last resort, which is writing in the streets. and in the, in the rural areas. so governments need to feel the heat a little bit more. or i could say peter was angling to get in with a come back. go ahead peter. yes, i do agree that the, the, i'm not here. i don't want to, you know,

exonerate african government. these are need as of separate states differently. they do have some scope. they haven't maximize the scope they have. i think the reference to that money, but the condition, yes, it can be done. but i think let us realize that the reality of this countries is much more than we would just imagine. because for example, these are countries where for some of them, probably 60 percent of the national budget is not going to be paying date. the physical space is much more like it's washed off the so the a certain thing that they can do, but there's a lot that is outside the control of up or can government. but even then they haven't come to get them. this is why we are really asking them to do what they can to be able to at least deliver what they are committed to, including that malibu commitment. but i think that is important. realize that some of the large corporates have a time over that is significantly higher than the donald of some of these governments. so they do have, i'm do inferential policy decision making, including over national parliaments. national is lifting processes,

they're much more powerful than we've been imagined. so there has to be some data he, they have to be an understanding that if we don't take collective and walked to get us romance level systems where the through the you instruct the if you could meet them and we don't do things for example. so alicia financial flows where this countries are losing money because of weaknesses in global facts of the you know, the systems. we don't do all the things to expand. the physical space is going to be difficult for this government to luckily deliver and invest in food production interest. i would agree with that. i would agree with that, tommy and peter. but i think the way we never talk about the quiet revolutionaries in the food system in africa, which of the smaller medium enterprises. and we need to find ways to get more private credit and equity from investors to those quiet revolutionaries. most people who are on low incomes get their food through small, medium enterprises and small farmers. we need to support them much more. we did it . okay. job during covert, but we need to keep supporting members, credit,

equity and technical assistance. i want to go back to jeff and pick you up an appoint. you mentioned you were saying that the world is simply not producing enough energy. is there an element of perhaps mismanagement collectively for the world and not saying that obviously the day was going to come when things would pick up after the pandemic? did we fail to put production in the right place and in test, in anticipation of that i think there was on some level it was that also i think there has been this continuing just one of the people that this investment that we've been talking about. we have been thinking about, you know, exploring other sources and energy and not relying on some of the traditional fuel and, and gas. what has happened is although we have a lot of research going on and this is commercially viable, it's not going to be to see the funding. so for example, there's a lot of talk about cc us common capture utilization of storage technology. but

it's the cost of setting that up and increasing the capacity of storing carbon and, and using it. it's just not much in the bible yet. so i think that help you to problem whole for the country, even though we do, we do want to achieve nets and everything. also in general, it is also a classic over i wouldn't say over reaction. i think that's, that's the wrong thing to say. but what's going on, it's of, into russia and ukraine situation. russia is the 3rd because all producer in the world and, and when you stop thinking about, hey, what's going on there, they're going to be an odd shortage. there would be an increase of demand. so that has been more of a recent thing, but the demand have been increasing and that has led to an increase in price throughout the supply chain, which will actually increase the price and push it back to the consumer. and i think finally having to be, we know about the lot of private shop a is a truck driver chart age that has been going on. and so that has that sort of

extended on the, on the shipping side. so a lot of energy fuel is transported right, and we need the chips for that. who have the professional equipment. now what happens is people are refusing to get on shift because what have been ever given last year and also what was happening. but people over there will suck chip way, pop their contract, due dates that they don't want to catch go with also they want, they don't want to get battery. they were literally surviving on bundle bread a day. so they don't want to get into that situation again and they want to get more clarity for the shipping fuel has also been impacted. so some about helping. i mean, we have and we talk about supply chain risk and they should be say, no known and unknown unknown. i know this is like so. sorry, no, no, no, no, no, no. so this is been elemental, this unknown, unknown that has been happening, but they were quite a bit of known known, unknown, which could have been managed. gosh, it does family really like

a perfect storm of factors then with the world or some countries, at least not investing already enough in food production. and then, you know, along comes coded and conflicts and climate change just to make everything more complicated. let's take it back to peter not simon asked the question now. lawrence mentioned the good point, support of small and medium sized enterprises, realistically speaking, who can give that support and how important a role can they play in food security in this era of mega corporations and globalization? yeah, i think that the logic is not investing in small and medium enterprise as family farming and all that, but i think it is important that your government should do that. but i think that a lot of the government, as i've said, i increasingly finding it difficult to do that because of the an expanding public. the problem. and the other thing is also of course the, the climate impacts are wanting to make it much harder for them to produce, to,

to know the weather patterns and changing and shifting in ways of the, the partners cannot. i mean, the farmers cannot cope. and there's, of course, if you, you know, of course of the be corporate to get with the state that is making it difficult, especially the vulnerable, was more from us. luckily, you know, produce enough food for them some time wondering really given incentive against these poor, small farmers. and because if you're going to invest in somebody, are you going to look to the most vulnerable, small farmers who might not be able to survive kobe than conflict and climate change and drought. so when you looked at, you know, put your but your money on huge corporations. i think that the truth is that what, no matter what we put it at the moment, the market has failed. and this is what we know, that there's more probably the most important the problem is that they're not having enough investment in terms of technology in terms of input, in terms of access to credit affordable credit. that is not happening in the

majority of the country that lease in africa. but as i can see, and i think that that's where the future, that's where they hawkins. and that's where we are saying that being all the cultural policies on investment should be directed at the small food producers that granted, it must be accompanied by investments and technology in training and cultural expansion services. i'm also in terms of the moment, the moment the market systems need to be regulated in a way that that's not the space for the small producers. as i've said there been a lot of investment on lifecycle land producers of the export of this month. and that's the reason why we are having a problem, no matter what we say, probably 70 percent of the food in africa is still you still model more from them. that's why we need to direct investments. as far as i can see, after all, i can be the ones that i buck the most of the moment and then the, the, the, the issue, all sol. as i said again, these countries i'm not poor been met for by

a global policies. are they said again, for example, africa losing $706070000000.00 every year to issued financial loss. so that can be they can be back lateral mechanisms able to grab that and redirect that to, to, to, to, to food production. yes, it is possible. i think that they all, it's also important to, to understand that these, these impacts of over 400 issues are not gender blind. the impact like women and children. and i think that we need to have punches that clearly directed and focused on, on those. the majority of the continent where you see the biggest crisis has been, you know, countries that governance problems, that issues of conflict by displacement. that simply means that people don't have the standard on the space. they don't have the piece where i luckily produce food. they have to rely on on charity, which i think is not where nobody wants wants to be. i don't gonna hold them down relying on food coming from abroad because he don't have the time to produce it

yourself. lawrence in light, especially of the pandemic, is the world moving even more towards a globally supplied food supply rather than, you know, local production sort of cove. it's leading up think low says, well, i don't think it's inevitable. i think the, the choices are there for policy makers, you know, we need to diversify. i think we've probably over rest over invested in global value changing global supply chains. and i think we're now seeing how fragile the food system is meant cove at 19 was devastating for, for humanity and an a massive stress test for the food system. and i'd say the food system fail desperately in pretty much every country. and that's because it was reliant on just in time global value chains. so i'm not saying no trade, of course, not. international value chains are critical, but we need a greater diversity of the length, both specially and temporarily

a value chains. and i think we are seeing a return to local production, regional production, more into trade, more and more trade with in africa, with a new free trade zone with in africa. that's going to be vital. so i think, i think, you know, it's really important and it's not just about small hold to farmers. it's about the small processes, the small retailers, the small marketers. these are companies that employ 51015 up to 100 people. and they are going to be the future of african food systems, but we need to invest them. otherwise the big corporate will take over and we'll just have all the problems we have in the u. k. have the same problems in southern africa and africa. interesting. i want to bring jackson on the 1st point of what lawrence was talking about, that always seeing supply chains change jass as a result of that failure. always seeing a move, at least to some degree away from you know,

reliance on the global supply chain. yes, yes, so i'm just responding to a lot insight about that and partially about peter said about supporting local local capabilities. so again, i mean at the outset, yes, dad is a change being changed being observed, all kind of moving from global supply chains to, to more regional local supply change. but there is a problem with that that, you know, if you, if you trade for a long time, but it's manufacturing also production i've seen be able to like in graduate vfc and depending what happened also that you lose capability over time. so you lose the knowledge of a time of how about a box or how to produce certain things. now what happens is that if you want to kind of reinvigorate those local capabilities, what needs to happen is that rather relying on global about chance,

we have to identify retail clusters and invest into them and develop them to, to become, to develop that. those kind of ability and that possibly goes into peter was saying about supporting supporting local bombers and you know, a small small, medium enterprises. and i was, i think that government does have a role to play in that. i think industrial, big corporation. we also have to play that. so what they can do, and we have seen some something recently in the u. k, but you know that there's a lot of that needs to be done. what they need to do is, instead of relying on traditional supply suppliers, the traditional global biggest suppliers, they need to invest in local supply chain to try and work with local supplies that integrate them into their, their own supply chain. however, that needs, but you need a different style of contracting your dean, need different payment down. do you need to understand what that each one are and that kind of goes to social value in addition to economic value in some kind of world for and right now really values put supreme. all right,

i'm sorry we're gonna have to end that because we are out of time terribly sorry guys. i know we can go on talking about this. i'm sure we will be bank, so talk about it later, but for now go to end it. let's thank i guess just calorie lawrence, her dad and peter cumberland and and thank you too for watching. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion head over to facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. can also join the conversation on twitter, our hands of areas at a j inside story. from me, sammy say that i'm the entire team here for our school by ah, [000:00:00;00]

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