i can forgive then. jessica washington are 0 corolla west java. sullivan also has ballasa. one of its drones has returned from israel after completing a 40 minute reconnaissance mission. low flying israeli jets were seen over bay root . israel says it fight intercept, to massage at the drone. the incident comes a day after israel shut down. what it says was another, has bellagio road. ah, utilities era, these all the top stories, russia back separate as leaders in eastern ukraine, say they're moving civilians to russia. with the kremlin approval, there's been an increase in shelling between the rebels and ukrainian government forces. calls for immediate de escalation in ukraine have been front and center at the music security conference, un secretary general antonio terrace, says tension seed higher than during the cold war. with a concentration of rush and forces on the ukraine,

i am deeply concerned about height, intentions and increased speculation about a military conflict in europe. i still think it will not happen, but if it did, it would be catastrophic. there is no alternative to diplomacy. all issues, including the most intractable, must be addressed. so diplomatic frameworks and it is high time to seriously deescalate russian president vladimir putin will ever seen. new drills of belarus on saturday, involving strategic nuclear forces and the launch of ballistic and cruise missiles . the criminal denies it will further inflame tensions with the west. he would just go would have, can use at today's talks, we also discuss strengthening our joint defense space of russia and belarus. we agreed again to take collect of mrs. strengthen security of our countries in the face of the growing military activity of nato countries near the borders of our states. we also focus on the joint military exercises which will continue in

bellows until the 20th of february. i should say that these exercises are totally defense of nature and do not threaten any one. at least one person has been killed in ireland, a storm units, lashes the region. the extreme weather is also a part of england sections of the roof of london, though to arena have been bit off by record wind gusts, a white police officer convicted of manslaughter after killing a black line during a traffic stop has been sentenced to 16 months in prison can poster will then survey further a supervised release, while his ruling military gender has told friends to withdraw their forces from the country without delay. it comes hours after the french foreign minister says molly's fight against groups linked to al qaeda and i sal is now their own problem . those where the headline is, i'll be back with more news in the design just to half now's time. next is inside story, with muhammad jammah jude to stay with us. ah,

russia insists it won't invade you frame with the u. s. says the signs suggest otherwise. shelling intensifies in eastern ukraine and diplomatic talks from moscow to deescalate, appear to be going nowhere. so is war inevitable? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm my hammer, jim, jim. the u. s. has again warned that russia could invade ukraine at any moment.

secretary of state antony blank and told the united nations security council that moscow may manufacture an excuse to attack russia's deputy foreign minister called the allegations baseless beyond the war of words fighting in eastern ukraine is worsening russian. back separatists and ukrainian government forces accused each other of stepping up artillery and mortar fire in the contested don bass region. charles stratford has more from pablo appeal in southeastern ukraine. we've been speaking to people in this village. they indeed say that in the last couple of days there has been an escalation of shelling. they were telling us that sir, they heard the shelling this morning between around 5 and 8 in the morning. it was the same yesterday. and it's been a similar kind of story are all on various areas of the 420 kilometer frontline. in the last 24 hours the ukrainian military this morning saying shelling had on was on going all had continued overnight. the people you speak to,

most of them do not believe that there will be any further russian escalation. but as we've been reporting, they are exhausted. they are tired of this conflict. they have very little faith in their own. governments certainly on the ukrainian side to deal with this crisis. but at the same time, very little trust in what vladimir putin has said. so despite it being calm here to day, the situation certainly, m remains remains tense. ukraine's defense minister says he believes the risk of a russian invasion is low at this stage, but insists the army is prepared. which if you could also could seat him up with steel stick. i'm was just for i would like to underline that we constantly faced provocation with 60 shelling cyber attacks. dangerous maneuvers, my aviation lowering of our mobile coverage. our task is not to do what the russian federation pushes us to do them. we will repel. i keep my head cool. i think we'll

look at around 150000 russian soldiers have been deployed near the ukranian border . moscow says it has pulled some of them back, but the u. s. and it's western allies in nato. don't believe that. russia's president vladimir putin is due to oversee nuclear military drills on saturday. the kremlin denies the exercises will inflame tensions. diplomatic efforts intensified on friday. ukraine is the main talking point at the munich security conference in germany. the u. s. president and vice president are also holding discussions with european and nato leaders. you know, it's ironic, but what mister putin did not want to see happen was, was stronger nato on his flight. and that's exactly what he will see going for. ah, all right, let's bring in our guess in washington d. c. we have william taylor. he is vice president, russia and europe at the us institute of peace and

a former us ambassador to ukraine. from odessa, hannah shall asked director of security programs at the think tank ukrainian prism . and in moscow by skype as possible, falcon, how're, he's an independent defense and military analyst, a very warm welcome to the wall. and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. william, let me start with you from your perspective. at this stage is war inevitable? war is not inevitable. mister putin has a decision he can invade, in which case there will be a war of major war and your 1st time since we're war 2, or he can decide to negotiate. uh, that option has been on the table. he's expressed some interest in this, at least in some aspects of negotiation. so he has a choice of a war is not enough. probably the last we've heard from russian, president putin was in a news conference a short time ago where he said that we are ready to follow negotiation track with

nato on security guarantees. what exactly does that mean? our bo, russia has issued the aid's position that russia is totally unhappy with the present security arrangements in europe and wants to rewrite them and write them, rewrite and dramatically moscow's demand. and the several key demands that need girl sees a need for their expansion, including your grain, but not only crane may either of america and another west turn. more trees and infrastructure are withdrawn from a former east european central european nations to the positions of 1997. and the new tag, or weapons are not placed anywhere near russia's bordeaux where russia was not like them. that's more worst thing, though,

west is not green till that. that's what moscow also says, the russian leadership rush or the western response is not adequate. and so that means there's going to be continued military and diplomatic pressure above. but that means also right now, i see indications that the russian military are beginning to step down from the present super high state of readiness. they're stepping down. it's not yet totally conclusive, but the parent we yes, so at the band will are going to had what we some the gratian, i believe the military. there's collation though the tension, the diplomatic tension, and naturally the threats will continue. hannah, as you heard pablo then, he was talking about the fact to one of the main demands from russia is that ukraine not ever join nato, this has been so much a part of this crisis. i want to ask you from your vantage point. what's the

sentiment right now in ukraine with regards to you, ukraine, possibly joining nato in the future. is this something that's important to ukrainians or most of them up against this idea or for this idea? i thank you for a question. there are several things to emphasize 1st, the wall in 2013 ukraine over the had a status of the fact the neutral face, not claiming the membership you made. and it didn't solve the russian federation to max cranium to start aggression in its own box. so the neutral side was all pure cray more joining nature is not something that really changing the future. so we're ready to up ukraine from the russian perspective. it just became a nice slogan to present in terms of support. in 2013, it was just searching for sounds. now are the new polls been published just few days ago? 62 percent of your premium supports ukrainian membership human nature. so you can imagine how the russian aggression,

the complete opposite the just praise the supports along the population is critical for your claim. all we need to know the fact that it's not something technical. we are thinking about the choice of people, the choice of country and your cravings, choice choosing to be with the best in terms of security, in terms of value, the principle from democracy. so in this way, it's not about your brain joining nature or joining european union or any other country. it is about the sovereign choice of the states to and to those military alliances that we would live last. don't forget that the statements of the russian ration in the sandbox was not only both ukraine, they dis fox, that nato would reject all those a membership, but half an optimized in $9.00 to $7.00. so means all eastern european countries shoot either similar, right, or just laugh to the later if to read those proposals. william russia is saying that president vladimir putin is going to personally oversee military drills involving strategic forces on saturday. at

a time when tensions are soaring. what message is the us going to take away from this? the message uh that we will hear um is that the president putin is so willing to and just continue the high crisis mold. um, again i, he is trying to intimidate president bonus, trying to intimidate, present the lensky president biden natal into giving concessions along the lines. the puzzle described. and so far, prisons, zalinski and president biden, and nato have not agreed at all. they have rejected these concessions. they are not intending, and it have given no indication that they want to give these concessions to present boots or present putin's military build up. his attendance at these nuclear drills

or all intended to intimidate and so far, prisons lends game, president biden have not been intimidate possible. you said earlier that there is going to be, at least from your perspective, there is going to be the escalation or that the escalation is happening. of course natal, i has said repeatedly that there is no meaningful evidence that there is any, deescalate, deescalate the escalation steps being taken right now. i want to ask you, how long can president putin keep the russian military in this kind of a heightened state? and i don't think the terry wong, but of course, or the, i mean the escalation, the build up of battle readiness took over 2 months at least. and so we are now right now the russian military entire rushed mil jadelyn around your brain. but in the entirety of the nation in the pacific, in the north sea,

and the mediterranean, and them all and in the nuclear deterrent nuclear strategic forces, all are cock them. and ready, grafton, lola doubt, say. and so standing down from that readiness will take also at least a month, more like where more and that should begin. now more or worse, i seize early signs and actually this exercise strategic nuclear exercise happening tomorrow is also an indication that there's a standing down beginning. because traditionally such exercises, when the president sort of sits together with his bow, military chiefs and gives orders to fire strategic inter continental muscles. and some are actually fired, of course, without nuclear weapons and into a aiming at russian test grounds and come chad in other places. of russia, that's always the combination and the end of

a big kind of military build up. i mean, that's a situation where we had to build up. we had the crisis, we had maybe a, a regional warrant ends up in the new, queer ha cost, which will be kind of reenacted to morrow. and that's, and that should a little more or less begins to deescalate. that's the good news. the bad news is that if there won't be any meaningful and comprehensive resolution of the underlying political and security problems somewhere and men don't know, 6 months, 7 months are going to see something happening. the same again, the same price as the scene build up, and maybe even it will be worse. a william, i saw you nodding along somewhat. pablo was saying there looked like you want to jump in to go ahead. thank you. no, i agree with bob will that the if, even if president bruton does go to negotiations, that is if he decides not to invade ukraine or even if he makes that decision,

our view is he won't give up. he will continue to want to dominate ukraine, or he will continue to want to try to re absorb ukrainian to the russian world. it to the russian empire are that, that desire, that almost obsession with ukraine will not go away. and so puzzles right. the west will have to continue to support new, great militarily, diplomatically financially for a long time, so that it can proceed on it does our own desire direction. so as atlanta has said, ukraine is a southern country, gets to the side. and if it's decided to go toward europe, that's it's decision and the united states will continue to help you bring on that path. hannah, the don bass region, has significant russian minority. russia has said the people there feel more

russian, but there are some surveys that have disputed this would the possibility of seeding parts of those 2 regions or the entirety of the regions don't ask, in lieu hands or perhaps allowing more russian influence there would that do anything to de escalate? a lot of federal things. first of all, clarifications in the boss, never been russia. my family is from there. so i have all the right to speak of all these don't mix of the russian and washing speaking. russia speaking a just historically happened in several regions of ukraine because of the. ringback soviet but it started even earlier for several proxy, bishop of use of ukrainian language, where we're asking the kids and boss is quite multi ethnic with the dominance ukrainian population. and before 2014, we never had any issue ethnic issues in not in the box, not in my teacher that's aware leave. now, that's also by russians, very often called the roches. nobody know from where it's more but you storage

needs, the russia being very successful in bringing why we're definitely those regions where on the have the rushing information influence and political influence for quite some time, even before 2014. so that gives some difficulties. they are for the future, and also about their collation. i would like to be the same optimistic as possible and trust me, i'm the 1st one would like to see this collation. but the real situation that was traced completely different. first of all, the intelligence services just to confirm that additional forces being brought to the board of ukraine in the last few days, the temporarily bridge has been built any of the reverse last the last 2 days. the you how the significance relational the see in the box just yesterday, 50 towels be in the show and even charge of kindergartens and school. so mostly civilian places to serve or be so where was the use of the weapon

where she but by the means agreement, 2 will 5 years they should do with joe one very far from the cost of life. so these documents, not demonstrating the escalating lot, what we see, i in continuation what my colleague said, that even if these big military build up will be, or what is that, what is not we already witnessing 1st of all, it is the intense cyber attacks against your brain, just for the last month you have to you, huge cyberg actually goes back against the government. so you should in your brain as it is the economic located or the maritime located there. sunday we how was the northern black sea being blocked by the russian military sizes. while our ships, for example, can vote cross the care straight for more than 60 hours of the 4th of odessa. also how difficult is needed to route many of the car big cargo sheets coming here. and i just want to follow up with you also and ask you the ukrainians largely trust what they're hearing from the government at this stage. are they happy with how

presidents lensky is navigating all of this ukrainian so that happy and never trusting the government? can you tell the started in one of your videos the journalist had that ukraine is? doesn't trust the government. that's a little bit tricky thing because ukrainians never made the president never perceived the presidential, the governments of the gods. whereas the sar so for us is always the complaints about the government. because for us that is democracy. the question is that if you see, for example, the percentage of population that trust the armed forces, it is more than 70 percent. the say when you speak about other agencies involved in protecting security and defending ukraine, that's much more important in terms of the landscape. we know that he's bad wrong, so definitely a lot of people so that he's not ready for the significant security threats and challenges. what's the practice? show us what now he managed more or less with the situation. oh,

would you like to see better surely as any citizen, well, we would like our president to act even better perform even better than they're doing. but that's probably what. what else is it play here when it comes to what president putting once? i mean, is it simply about ukraine, or is there a lot more at stake? well, it's good for moran for rush. it's blue is not just about the green ukraine is just part of the big b picture. moscow's put thing, maximum pressure on the west, on the united states and its allies, to, for them to make concessions and agree to a new framework of security in europe. that will give a russia bucket much bigger, say in what's happening in europe and more append to it's believe that in, in if sector solution happens, ukraine will just flow on to russia lab as an additional bonus. and this,

her heightened pressure will continue. and actually, there are more risks of really than just simply around ukraine. there was an incident in the sea of a horse which russia considers its all its territorial waters and deployed a sizeable naval force there. because the sea of a horse is a kind of a basque, the and where russian strategic nuclear submarines go and patrol from there. they have to show their intended to shoot. yeah. inter continental missiles nuclear missiles at the united states and they should be guarded there. and there, a russian frigate used live dep to bombs against what they thought was an american intruding submarine. parents with no one get got it there. no one was injured, but that's what might happen. there are also reports of bus rows between rush and plains, and american plains, in the mediterranean, where russia deployed also,

and the carrier force. and there are 3 nato carriers, the reg now in the mediterranean, an american one that harry truman and french, $1001.00. and their idea of, and their russian cruisers that are intended to sink carriers. so and there's no ukrainians in the metro in, you know, ukrainian in the sea of a halt score in the baltic. and there, there could be direct skirt skirmishes between american and russian military is as if the situation continues to test the tense. or even if there's the escalation of the get tense in 6 months. and that's already a direct russian american war possible. i mean, not that it's very possible, but the threat of a escalation happening somewhere through is very high, and at least it's very dangerous situation where it's not just you, william, i want to take a step back and look at another aspect of the diplomacy. president biden has been

resolute for a while now in saying that the u. s. will not send troops to ukraine. that, that is not an option. ukraine is not a nato members. that means there's no treaty obligation to do that. but doesn't that, in some sense, take away a key point of leverage when it comes to the u. s. negotiating with russia about all this. so 1st of all of the united states has had troops in ukraine, has trainers managed in the western part of the grant, nearly for java reef training, ground united states had up to 200 at a time armed forces military people active duty military in ukraine. so, so that's, that's been there. they're not there now, but that's 1st of all, 2nd point on, on us forces is ukrainians. have not asked for nato troops or

u. s. troops to fight beside that. that is lou training government has not asked for that. the, the 3rd thing is, present biting has been very clear. and i would even say aggressive about moving us forces from united states to nato, to eastern europe, to the, the, the border with ukraine to demonstrate commitment, and to demonstrate to mr. puddin and to ukrainians that we're, they're very much in force where they're in with military units. couple of units that i used to serve him when i was in the army, are there on the, on the eastern flank of, of nato. and the 4th point is, if, by some reason pablo pointed out a couple of places where u. s. and russian forces are already been in close contact, dangerously close contact if that should happen. or if the,

if the russian forces should, for some terrible reason attack, poland, or attack the baltics that will trigger nato's response. and that will be the us forces will be in jason. there's actually no doubt. but one last point on this, this is why negotiations are so important. one of the areas that the russians have suggested and that the americans and nato have have agreed to, is looking at ways to avoid these kinds of classes. looking for ways to, to be sure that the exercises that nato conducts, or the exercises that russia conducts are, are observed, are transparent, notified in advance. those that's an important part of the negotiation that, that can take place. and we just have about a minute left. i want to ask you very briefly, how big are concerns in ukraine right now about the potential humanitarian impact of an invasion? we already have 2000000 internally displaced people in your grain,

and you've never heard the boat to bring in refugees. luckily to considering that ukraine is quite a big country and a lot of our local administration, preparing that in case and big aggression can be additional move of the people that can be certain military and crisis. but nothing bad, for example, european union or because of the syrian refugees are we are trying to accumulate as much as possible of the local, worse us to cope with the situation and the strategy where the national resilience about the glass here is one of those to deal with such case. all right, well we have run out of time to we're going to have to leave the conversation there . thank you so much. all of our guests, william taylor, hanna cellist and puddle of falcon howard. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also, during the conversation on twitter handle is at ha,

inside story from imagine doing the whole team here. bye for now. i ah and a, the latest news as it breaks after the killing goes to isolator is why the united states over the last 3 years, many across the board, their fear to grow. we'll see that as a challenge with detailed coverage opposition to the mine runs strong science against it. like this point are found across the community from around the world.

very hard to get a sense of public opinion inside them up with the military arresting people for their political beliefs. americans are increasingly saying authoritarianism might not be so bad. there were several steps along the way where the chain of command, if you like, tried to cover what your take on why they've gotten this so wrong. that to me is political malpractice, the bottom line on us politics and policies and the impact on the world on al jazeera oh, stories of life. and inspiration, a series of short documentary from around the world that celebrate the human spirit. again, a al jazeera select express himself. aah,

al jazeera. with all this is al jazeera, ah hello, hello raman, watching the al jazeera news out of life. my headquarters here in day, i'll coming up in the next 60 minutes. ah, every sirens blaring east new crane, russia back separatists announced the evacuation of denette scandal. concert blaming arise in shelling. he to be get this trophy.