to the stream, say they're concerned, they could be more damage than we are living in fear because the sink hole may cause the land to collapse. we live near the bank of the stream and it's a threat to our homes in our lives. the government is being urged to act quickly before the woman, whether causes more smarter mouth and 3rd flood this and cold. elizabeth per item, algebra new daddy. ah. so this is out there are, these are the top stories and most bank, separatists leaders in east ukraine, awarded a full military, mobilize ation to say the evacuation civilians to russia and shelly intensifies in the break way regions. and that can you, as president says he is convinced russia has decided to invade ukraine. joe biden says intelligence suggests it could happen in the coming days of letting me preach . and as jujuy, i received nuclear drills on saturday, including cruise missiles, make no mistake,

afresh pursues his plans. it will be responsible for catastrophic and needless or of choice. united states and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of nato territory from any threat to our collective security as well. we also will not send troops in to fight in ukraine, but we will continue to support ukrainian people. storage units is killed at least 9 people at the top through the u. k. island. belgian germany and the netherlands. reco breaking gusts of wind ripped off roofs, damage, buildings and course telecom police in the canadian capital had arrested more than 100 people while turned away. trucks block parts of hundreds of offices have been deployed on the streets near the parliament area was turned into a camp. i protest is angry about pandemic restrictions. the united states has suspended nearly $160000000.00 in a typical of france. so after saying recent events, amount to a military coup,

move comes just days off the pool already to me, but was sworn in as president. he let the military and overthrowing rock about a last month. molly's military gender has told france to withdraw its forces from the country without delay account. shortly after the french foreign minister said that molly's fight against groups linked to al qaeda and i so it's not, it's a problem. relations between the 2 countries, a decline sharply since the army sees power in molly. in 2020 and below a has declared a polio outbreak. the 1st in africa and more than 5 years case was detected the 3 year old girl in the capital, a long way is thought to have been introduced from pakistan where while poland is still and demick, the headlines got more news coming up here on out 0 right after inside story, bye from hi susan to supply along the russian crane border. u. s. presidential

bypass threatening president, cynthia or economic sanctions saying if conflict occurs, it could be the largest invasion. won't work to can to the magic tops if use hostilities. what we live from moscow, we, the latest developments on al jazeera, russia insist it won't invade you. crane with the u. s. says the signs suggest otherwise. shelling intensifies an eastern ukraine and diplomatic talks from moscow to de escalate. appear to be going nowhere. so is war inevitable? this is inside story. ah, hello and welcome to the program. i'm my hammer, jim jim. the u. s. has again warned that russia could invade ukraine at any moment . secretary of state antony blinkin told the united nations security council that

moscow may manufacture an excuse to attack russia's deputy foreign minister called the allegations baseless beyond the war of words fighting and eastern ukraine is worsening russian back separatists and ukrainian government forces accused each other of stepping up artillery and mortar fire in the contested don bass region. charles stratford has more from pablo peele in southeastern ukraine. we've been speaking to people in this village. they indeed say that in the last couple of days, there has been an escalation of shelling. they were telling us that sir, they heard shelling this morning between around 5 and 8 in the morning. it was the same yesterday. and it's been a similar kind of story. are all on various areas of the 420 kilometer frontline in the last 24 hours the ukrainian military this morning saying shelling had on was on going all had continued overnight. the people you speak to,

most of them do not believe that there will be any further russian escalation. but as we've been reporting, they are exhausted. they are tired of this conflict. they have very little faith in their own. governments certainly on the ukrainian side to deal with this crisis em, but at the same time, very little trust in what vladimir putin has said. so despite it being calm here to day, the situation certainly, m remains remains tense, ukraine's defense minister says he believes the risk of a russian invasion is low at this stage, but insists the army is prepared. what you've been crystal good team up was steelers. think i was, i would like to underline that we constantly faced provocation with 60 shelling cyber attacks. dangerous maneuvers, my aviation lowering of our mobile coverage. our task is not to do what the russian federation pushes us to do them. we will repel by key by head cool. we'll look at around 150000 russian soldiers have been deployed near the ukranian border. moscow

says it has pulled some of them back, but the u. s. and it's western allies in nato. don't believe that. russia's president vladimir putin is due to overseen nuclear military drills on saturday. the kremlin denies the exercises will inflame tensions. diplomatic efforts intensified on friday. ukraine is the main talking point at the munich security conference in germany. the u. s. president and vice president are also holding discussions with european and nato leaders. you know, it's ironic, but what mister putin did not want to see happen was, was stronger nato on his voice. and that's exactly what he will see going for. ah. all right, let's bring in our guess in washington d. c. we have william taylor, he is vice president, russia and europe at the u. s. institute of peace and a former us ambassador to ukraine. from odessa,

hannah shall asked director of security programs at the think tank ukrainian prism and in moscow by skype is pablo falcon, how're he's an independent offense and military analyst, a very warm welcome to the wall and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story william, let me start with you from your perspective. at this stage is war inevitable? war is not inevitable. mr. burton has a decision he can invade, in which case there will be a war, a major war in europe 1st time since we're war 2. or he can decide to negotiate that. that option has been on the table. he's expressed some interest in this, at least in some aspects of negotiation. so he has a choice of a war is not enough. probable. i'm the last we've heard from russian. president putin was in a news conference a short time ago where he said that we are ready to follow a negotiation track with nato on security guarantees. what exactly does that mean?

our bo, russia has issued the aid's position that russia is totally unhappy with the present security arrangements in europe and wants to rewrite them and write them, rewrite and dramatically moscow's demand. and the several key demands that need to see a need for their expansion, including ukraine, but not only crane native american and other western moore, trees and infrastructure are withdrawn from a former east european central european nations to the positions of 1997 and the newer tag weapons are not placed anywhere near russia's bordeaux where russia was not like them. that's more west thing, though. west is not green till that. that's what moscow also says,

the russian leadership rush of the western response is not adequate. and so that means there's going to be continued military and diplomatic pressure. but that means also right now, i see indications that the russia military are beginning to step down from the present super high state of readiness. they're stepping down. it's not yep, totally conclusive. but the parent we yes, so at the band who are going to had what we some, the escalation, i believe the military, there's collation though the tension, the diplomatic tension. and naturally the threats will continue. hannah, as you heard pablo then, he was talking about the fact to one of the main demands from russia is that ukraine not ever join nato, this has been so much a part of this crisis. i want to ask you from your vantage point. what's the

sentiment right now in ukraine with regards to ukraine, possibly joining nato in the future. is this something that's important to ukrainians or most of them up against this idea or for this idea? i thank you for a question. there are several things to emphasize. first, the wall in 2013 ukraine over to had a status of the fact the neutral states, not claiming the membership you made. and it didn't stop the russian federation to an x grey, me and sought aggression in its own box. so the neutral side was all the ukraine more joining, nathan is not something that really changing the future. so we're ready to up ukraine from the russian perspective. it just became a nice slogan to present in terms of support. in 2013, it was just searching for sounds. now are the new polls been published just few days ago? 62 percent of ukrainian support ukranian membership human nature. so you can imagine how the russian aggression, the complete opposite the just praise the supports along the population is it's

critical for your claim. we need to understand that it's not something technical. we are thinking about the choice of people, the choice of country and your cravings, choice choosing to be with the bus, in terms of security, in terms of value principles and democracy. so in this way, it's not about your brain joining nature or joining european union or any other country. it is about the sovereign choice of the states to answer those military alliances that we would live last. don't forget that the statements of the russian federation in the sandbox was not only about ukraine, said the fox, that nature would reject all those membership, but half an optimized in $97.00. so means all eastern european countries shoot either a similar right, or just last to the later. if to read those proposals, william russia is saying that president vladimir putin is going to personally oversee military drills involving strategic forces on saturday. at a time when tensions are soaring,

what message is the us going to take away from this? the message uh that we will hear um is that the present button is so willing to and just continue the high crisis mold. um, again i, he is trying to intimidate, present bonus, trying to intimidate, present the lensky president biden natal into giving concessions along the lines. the puzzle described. and so far, president zalinski and president biden and nato have not agreed at all. they have rejected these concessions. they are not intending, and it have given no indication that they want to give these concessions to present prudence or present potent military build up his attendance at these nuclear drills

or all intended to intimidate and so far, prisons lends game present biden, have not been intimidate pavel, you said earlier that there is going to be, at least from your perspective, there is going to be the escalation or that the escalation is happening. of course natal, i has said repeatedly that there is no meaningful evidence that there is any de escalate, deescalate the escalation steps being taken right now. i want to ask you, how long can president putin keep the russian military in this kind of a heightened state? and i don't think the cleary want, but of course, or the, i mean, the escalation, the build up of battle readiness took over 2 months at least. and so we are now right now the russian military entire russian mil jadelyn around your brain. but in the entirety of the nation in the pacific, in the north sea, and the mediterranean,

and the all the in the nuclear deterrent nuclear strategic forces, all are cock them and ready car craft and roll it out. see. and so standing down from that readiness will take also at least a month, more like where more and that should begin. now more or worse, i seize early signs and actually this exercise strategic nuclear exercise happening tomorrow is also an indication that there's a standing down beginning. because traditionally such exercises, when the president sort of sits together with his bow, military chiefs and gives orders through fire strategic inter continental muscles. and some are actually fired, of course, without nuclear weapons and into a aiming at russian test grounds and come chat in other places of russia. that's always the combination and the end of a big kind of military build up. i mean,

that's a simulation of we had to build up, we had the crisis, we had maybe a, a regional warrant ends up in a nuclear holocaust which will be kind of reenacted to morrow. and that's and that should a little more or less begins to deescalate. that's the good news. the bad news is that if there won't be any meaning for him, comprehensive resolution of the underlying political and security problems somewhere and men don't know, 6 months, 7 months are going to see something happening. the same again, the same price as the same build up and maybe even it will be worse. a william, i saw you nodding along somewhat. pablo was saying there looked like you wanted to jump in to go ahead. thank you. no, i agree with bob will that the if even if present button does go to negotiations, that is if he decides not to invade ukraine or even if he makes that decision,

our view is he won't give up. he will continue to want to dominate ukraine, or he will continue to watch, to try to re absorb ukrainian to the russian world. it to the russian empire. ah, that that desire, that almost obsession with ukraine will not go away. and so puzzles right. the west will have to continue to support new, great militarily, diplomatically financially for a long time, so that it can proceed on it does our own desire direction. so as atlanta has said, ukraine is a southern country, gets to decide. and if it's decided to go toward europe, that's its decision and the united states will continue to help you bring on that path. hannah, the don bass region, has significant russian minority. russia has said the people there feel more russian, but there are some surveys that have disputed this would the possibility of seating

parts of those 2 regions or the entirety of the regions don't ask, in lieu hands or perhaps allowing more russian influence there would that do anything to de escalate? a lot of federal things. first of all, clarifications in the past never be in russia. my family is from there. so i have all the right to speak about these don't mix of the russian and washing speaking. russia speaking, a just historically happens in several regions of ukraine because of the soviet. but it started even earlier for several proxy, bishop of use of ukrainian language, where we're asking the kids and boss is quite a multi ethnic with the dominance ukrainian population. and before 2014, we never had any issue ethnic issues in not in the box, not in my teacher who that's aware leave. now, that's also by russians, very often called the washing c t. nobody know from where it's more to storage

needs. the russia being very successful in bringing why we're definitely those regions where on the have the rushing information influence and political influence for quite a time, even before 2014. so that gives some difficulties they are for the future. and also about this collation. i would like to be the same optimistic as possible and trust me, i'm the 1st one would like to see this collation. but the real situation that was traced completely different. first of all, the intelligence services just to confirm that additional forces being brought to the board of ukraine in the last few days, the temporarily bridge has been built in me of the reverse last, the last 2 days, the you how the significance, my lation of the see wire in the last, just yesterday 50 told be in the show and even charge it in kindergarten and school. so mostly civilian places to serve or be so where was the use of the weapon where she been by the means agreement, 2 will 5 years,

they should do withdrawal and very far from the cost of life. so these documents in log demonstrating the escalating lot, what we see i in continuation what my colleague said, that even if these big military build up would be, or what is that, what is not we already have witnessing while it is the cyber attacks against your brain just for the last month, you have to you, huge cyberg actually goes back against the governmental institution in your brain. and it is the economic located, or the maritime located there found the we, how was the northern black sea being blocked by the russian military sizes. while our ships, for example, can most called the care straight for more than 60 hours to the 4th of odessa. also how difficult is needed to route many of the car big cargo sheets coming here. and i just want to follow up with you also and ask you the ukrainians, largely trust what they're hearing from the government at this stage. are they happy with how presidents lensky is navigating all of this ukrainian so that

happy and never trusting the governments and you tell the salad in one of your videos, the journalist found that ukraine is doesn't trust the government. that's a little bit tricky thing because ukrainians never made the president never perceived the presidential, the governments of the gods or as the star. so for us is always the complaint about the government because for us that is democracy. the question is that if you see, for example, the percentage of population that trust the armed forces, it is more than 70 percent. the say when you speak about other agencies involved in the protecting security and defending ukraine, that's much more important in terms of the landscape. we know that he's bad wrong, so that's gonna be a lot of people so that he's not ready for the significant security threats and challenges. what's the practice? show us what now he managed more or less with the situation. oh,

would you like to see better surely as any citizen, well, we would like our president to act even better perform even better than there. but that's normal. busy problem, what, what else is it play here when it comes to what president put once? i mean, is it simply about ukraine, or is there a lot more at stake? well, it's good for miranda, for rush. it's blue is not just about your green ukraine is just part of the big, big picture. moscow's put thing, maximum pressure on the west from the united states and its allies, to, for them to make concessions and agree to a new framework of security in europe. that will give a russia bucket much bigger, say in what's happening in europe and more append to. it's believe that in if sector solution happens, ukraine will just fall on to russia lab as an additional bonus. and this,

her heightened pressure will continue. and actually, there are more risks of a really, than just simply around ukraine. there was an incident in the sea of a horse which russia considers its all with its territorial waters and deployed a sizeable naval force there. because the sea of a hood is a kind of a bass, the and where russian strategic nuclear submarines go and patrol from there. they have to, they're intended to shoot you inter continental missiles nuclear missiles at the united states and they should be guarded there. and they're, a russian frigate used live dept bombs against what they thought was an american intruding submarine. parents with no one get got it there. no one was injured. but that's what might happen. there are also reports of bust rose between rush and plains and american plains, in the mediterranean, where russia deployed also,

and the carrier force. and there are 3 nato carriers right now in the mediterranean and american ones, harry truman and french, 1001. and then the other and their russian cruisers that are intended to st carriers. so and there are no ukrainians in the metro and, you know, ukrainian in the sea of a hauled score in the baltic. and there, there could be direct a skirt skirmishes between american and russian military is as if the situation continues to test the tense. or even if there's the escalation of your plans in 6 months. and that's already a direct russian american war possible. i mean, not that it's very possible, but the threat of a escalation happening somewhere through is very high, and at least it's very dangerous situation. well, it's not just you, william, i want to take a step back and look at another aspect of the diplomacy. president biden has been

resolute for a while now in saying that the u. s. will not send troops to ukraine. that, that is not an option. ukraine is not a nato members. that means there's no treaty obligation to do that. but doesn't that, in some sense, take away a key point of leverage when it comes to the u. s. negotiating with russia about all this. so 1st of all of the united states has had troops in ukraine as trainers managed in the western part of ukraine, nearly for java reef training. ground united states is head up to $200.00 at a time. are armed forces military people active duty military in ukraine so. so that's, that's been there. they're not there now, but that's 1st of all, 2nd point on, on us forces is ukrainians. have not asked for nato troops or u. s. troops to fight beside them. that is,

the korean government has not asked for that. um, the 3rd thing is, present biting has been very clear. and i would even say, aggressive about moving us forces from united states to nato, to eastern europe, to the, the, the border with ukraine to demonstrate commitment, and to demonstrate to mr. pudding and to ukrainians that we're, they're very much in force where they're in with military units. a couple of units that i used to serve him when i was in the army, are there on the, on the eastern flank of, of, of nato. and the 4th point is, if by some reason bubble pointed out a couple of places where u. s. and russian forces are already been in close contact, dangerously close contact if that should happen. or if the, if the russian forces should, for some terrible reason attack, poland,

or attack the baltics that will trigger nato's response. and that will be the us forces will be in jason. there's actually no doubt, but one last point on this, this is why negotiations are so important. one of the areas that the russians have suggested and that the americans and nato have have agreed to, is looking at ways to avoid these kinds of classes. looking for ways to, to be sure that the exercises that nato conducts, or the exercises that russia conduct are, are observed or transparent notified in advance. those that's an important part of the negotiation that, that can take place. and we just have about a minute left. i want to ask you very briefly, how big are concerns in ukraine right now about the potential humanitarian impact of an invasion? we already have 2000000 internally displaced people in ukraine,

and you've never heard the boat to bring in refugee. luckily to considering that ukraine is quite a big country and a lot of our local administration of preparing that in case and big aggression can be additional. the people that can be certain managerial crisis, but nothing bad, for example, european union or because of the syrian refugees. we are trying to accumulate as much as possible of the local courses to cope with the situation and the strategy for the national resilience about the blog. here is one of those to deal with such case. all right, well we have run out of time to we're going to have to leave the conversation there . thank you so much. all of our guests, william taylor, hanna cellist and puddle of falcon howard. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also, during the conversation on twitter handle is at a j inside story. from emergent room and the whole team year,

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a fan of my eye and power and passion. we tell your stories. we are your voice. your news, your net al jazeera ah separate is lead. as in easton, ukraine, cool for military mobilization, installed, evacuating civilians to russia in anticipation because we have reasonably, the russian forces are planning to and attend to attack ukraine in the coming week . the coming days. the last president warns of an imminent attack has rush proposal, military drills involving massage ah, the.