continuous monica in our give, i'll jazeera ah 0. these are the top stories. russia says president vladimir putin has started overseeing strategic nuclear exercises. carolyn says it's successfully lot hypersonic missiles during the drills, but tonight's war grams will further inflame tensions. russia back separatist leaders in easton, ukraine have ordered a full military mobilization. they say that evacuating civilians to russia. shelly intensifies in the break way. regions of the nets and the hands, the president of the european commission as lavonne delane has addressed the security conference in munich. she is worn day ukraine and cogent could cost rusher a prosperous future. sh. well, the very reason that the union, the european union was once created is that we wanted to put an end to all

european wars. and thus the world has been watching in disbelief as we faced the largest build up of troops on european soil. since the darkest days of the cold war, because events of these days could reshape the entire international order. another issue that has been discussed dominica. the efforts to revive the 2015 iran euclid deal delegate say a deal could be just days away. the u. s. state department says substantial progress has been made an agreement as possible. if iran shows seriousness we are getting reports of a large explosion in that bullet. wayne city in central somalia. please says there are multiple casualties for suicide bombing. leave. some politicians were present at the targeted location. mila has declared a polio outbreak the 1st in africa and more than 5 years. the case was detected in

a 3 year old girl in the capital, a long way is sort of been introduced from pakistan. we're. but well, polio is still, and demik continent had been declared value free in 2020 with please in the canadian capital of arrest. more than a 100 people while tow trucks of block parts of also were hundreds of officers have been deployed on streets near canadas parliament. the area was turned into camp by protest. his angry about pandemic restrictions. a former police woman has been sentenced to 2 years in a u. s. prison for killing a black man. kimberly porter said sheep mistook her gun for a taser as she shot dante right in minneapolis last april. is relative say they feel cheated by the verdict. alright or upstate will, will headlines here, announcer for now i got more news coming up right after inside story. ah,

russia insists it won't invade you frame with the u. s. says the signs suggest otherwise. shelling intensifies an eastern ukraine and diplomatic talks from moscow to deescalate, appear to be going nowhere. so, is war inevitable? this is inside story. ah. hello and welcome to the program. i'm my hammer, jim. jim. the u. s. has again warned that russia could invade ukraine at any moment . secretary of state antony blank and told the united nations security council that

moscow may manufacture an excuse to attack russia's deputy foreign minister called the allegations baseless beyond the war of words fighting and eastern ukraine is worsening. rushing back separatists and ukrainian government forces accuse each other of stepping up artillery and mortar fire in the contested don bass region. charles stratford has more from pavel appeal in southeastern ukraine. we've been speaking to people in this village. they indeed say that in the last couple of days there has been an escalation of shelling. they were telling us that sir, they heard shelling this morning between around 5 and 8 in the morning. it was the same yesterday. and it's been a similar kind of story are all on various areas of the 420 kilometer frontline. in the last 24 hours the ukrainian military this morning saying shelling had on was on going all had continued overnight. the people you speak to,

most of them do not believe that there will be any further russian escalation. but as we've been reporting, they are exhausted. they are tired of this conflict. they have very little faith in their own government. so certainly on the ukrainian side to deal with this crisis. but at the same time, very little trust in what vladimir putin has said. so despite it being calm here to day, the situation certainly, m remains remains tense. ukraine's defense minister says he believes the risk of a russian invasion is low at this stage, but insists the army is prepared. what you've been through as a good team, it was seamless. the gun was that i would like to underline that we constantly faced provocation with 60 shelling cyber attacks. dangerous maneuvers, my aviation lowering of our mobile coverage. our task is not to do what the russian federation pushes us to do them. we will repel by key, by head cool. we'll look at around 150000 russian soldiers have been deployed near

the ukranian border. moscow says it has pulled some of them back, but the u. s. and it's western allies in nato. don't believe that. russia's president vladimir putin is due to oversee nuclear military drills on saturday. the kremlin denies the exercises will inflame tensions. diplomatic efforts intensified on friday. ukraine is the main talking point at the munich security conference in germany. the u. s. president and vice president are also holding discussions with european and nato leaders. you know, it's ironic that what mister putin did not want to see happen was, was stronger nato on his flight. and that's exactly what he will see going for. ah, all right, let's bring in our guess in washington d. c. we have william taylor. he is vice president, russia and europe at the u. s. institute of peace and a former us ambassador to ukraine. from odessa,

hannah shall asked director of security programs at the think tank ukrainian prism . and in moscow by skype as possible, falcon, how're, he's an independent defense and military analyst, a very warm welcome to you all. and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. william, let me start with you from your perspective. at this stage is war inevitable? war is not inevitable. mister putin has a decision he can invade, in which case there will be a war of major war and europe 1st time since we're war 2, or he can decide to negotiate. uh, that option has been on the table. he's expressed some interest in this, at least in some aspects of negotiation. so he has a choice of a war is not enough. probable the last we've heard from russian president putin was in a news conference a short time ago, where he said that we are ready to follow the negotiation track with nato on security guarantees. what exactly does that mean?

ah, beau russia has issued the aide's position, that rushes code to unhappy with the present security arrangements in europe and wants to rewrite them and write them, rewrite them dramatically moscow's demand. and the several key demands that need girl sees a need for their expansion, including your grain, but not only crane may either american and other western. no trees and infrastructure are withdrawn from a former east european central european nations to the positions of 1997. and the new tag weapons are not placed anywhere near russia's bordeaux where russia will not like them. that's more west thing though. west is

not green till that. that's why moscow also says the russian leadership, russian or the western response is not adequate. and so that means there is going to be continued military and diplomatic pressure. but that means also right now, i see indications that the russia military are beginning to step down from the present super high state of readiness. they're stepping down. it's not. yep, totally conclusive. but the bank we yes. so at the boundary, we're going to had what we, some the gratian, i believe, the military. there's collation though the tension, the diplomatic tension, and naturally the threats will continue. hannah, as you heard pablo then, he was talking about the fact to one of the main demands from russia is that ukraine not ever join nato, this has been so much a part of this crisis. i want to ask you from your vantage point. what's the

sentiment right now in ukraine with regards to ukraine, possibly joining nato in the future. is this something that's important to ukrainians or most of them up against this idea or for this idea? i thank you for a question. there are several things to emphasize. first, the wall in 2013 ukraine over to had a status of the fact the neutral states, not claiming the membership you made. and it didn't stop the russian federation to an x grey me and to sought aggression in its own box. so the neutral side was all ukraine more joining. nathan is not something that really changing the future of the we're ready to of ukraine from the russian perspective. it just became a nice slogan to present in terms of support. in 2013, it was just searching for sounds. now are the new polls been published just few days ago? 62 percent of ukrainian support ukranian membership human nature. so you can imagine how the russian aggression div complete opposite. the judge praised the

supports along the population is it's critical for your claim. all we need to understand is that it's not something technical. we are thinking about the choice of people, the choice of country and your cravings, choice choosing to be with the bus, in terms of security, in terms of values, principles, and democracy. so in this way, it's not about your brain joining nature or joining european union or any other country. it is about the sovereign choice of the states to answer those military alliances that we would live last. don't forget that the statements of the russian federation in the sandbox was not only about ukraine, said the fox, that nature would reject all those membership, but half an optimized in $97.00. so means all eastern european countries shoot either a similar right, or just last to the later. if to read those proposals, william russia is saying that president vladimir putin is going to personally oversee military drills involving strategic forces on saturday. at a time when tensions are soaring,

what message is the us going to take away from this? the message uh that we will here. um is that the present button is her willing to and her continue the high crisis mold. um, again i, he is trying to intimidate, present bonus, trying to intimidate, present zalinski, president biden natal into giving concessions along the lines. the puzzle described . and so far, president zalinski and president biden and nato have not agreed at all. they have rejected these concessions. they are not intending, and it have given no indication that they want to give these concessions to present prudence or present potent military build up his attendance at these nuclear drills

or all intended to intimidate and so far. prisons lynch again. president biden have not been intimidate powell, you said earlier that there is going to be, at least from your perspective, there is going to be the escalation or that the escalation is happening. of course natal, i has said repeatedly that there is no meaningful evidence that there is any de escalate it deescalate the escalation steps being taken right now. i want to ask you, how long can president putin keep the russian military in this kind of a heightened state? and i don't think the cleary want, but of course, i mean, the escalation, the boob of battle readiness took over 2 months at least. and so we are now right now the russian military entire russian mil chapel on around your brain. but in the entirety of the nation in the pacific, in the north sea, and the mediterranean,

and them all in the nuclear deterrent nuclear strategic forces, all are cocked and, and ready. car craft and lola doubts say. and so standing down from that readiness will take also at least a month, more like where more and that should begin. now more or worse, i seize early signs and actually this exercise strategic nuclear exercise happening tomorrow is also an indication that there's a standing down beginning. because traditionally such exercises, when the president sort of sits together with his bow military chiefs and gives orders through fire strategic inter continental missiles. and some are actually fired, of course, without nuclear weapons and into a aiming at russian test grounds in come chart. in other places of russia, that's always the combination and the end of a big kind of military build up. i mean, that's

a situation where we had to build up. we had the crisis, we had maybe a, a regional warrant ends up in a nuclear holocaust. which will be kind of reenacted to morrow. and that's, and that should lead though more or less begins to deescalate. that's the good news . the bad news is that if there won't be any meaning for and comprehensive resolution of the underlying political and security problems somewhere and men don't know, 6 months, 7 months are going to see something happening. the same again, the same price as the scene build up, and maybe even it will be worse. a william, i saw you nodding along somewhat. pablo was saying there looked like you wanted to jump in to go ahead. thank you. no, i agree with bob will that the if even if present button does go to negotiations, that is if he decides not to invade ukraine or even if he makes that decision,

our view is he won't give up. he will continue to want to dominate ukraine, or he will continue to watch, to try to re absorb ukrainian to the russian world. it to the russian empire. ah, that that desire, that almost obsession with ukraine will not go away. and so puzzles right. the west will have to continue to support new, great militarily, diplomatically financially for a long time, so that it can proceed on it does our own desire direction. so as atlanta has said, ukraine is a southern country, gets to decide. and if it's decided to go toward europe, that's its decision and the united states will continue to help you bring on that path. hannah, the don bass region, has significant russian minority. russia has said the people there feel more russian, but there are some surveys that have disputed this would the possibility of seating

parts of those 2 regions or the entirety of the regions don't ask, in lieu hands or perhaps allowing more russian influence there would that do anything to de escalate? a lot of federal think. first of all, clarifications in the boss never been russia. my family is from there. so i have all the right to speak about these don't mix of the russian and washing speaking russian speaking just historically happens in several regions of ukraine because of the soviet. but it started even earlier for several propositions of use of ukrainian language, where we're asking to q, the boss is quite a multi ethnic with the dominance ukrainian population. and before 2014, we never had any issue ethnic issues in not in the box, not in my teacher who that's aware leave. now, that's also by russians, very often called the rushing c t. nobody know from where it's more storage needs.

the russia being very successful in bringing why we're definitely those regions where on the have the rushing information influence and political influence for quite some time, even before 2014. so that gives some difficulties they are for the future. and also about desk. elation i would like to be the same optimistic as possible and trust me, i'm the 1st one would like to see this collation. but the real situation that was trace completely different. first of all, the intelligence services just to confirm that additional forces being brought to the board of ukraine in the last few days, the temporarily bridge has been built me of the reverse last the last 2 days that you have the significant violation of the c fire in the ball, just yes to the fixture towels be in the show and even charger for kindergarten and school. so mostly civilian places to serve or be so where was the use of the weapon where she but that by the means agreement 2 will 5 year they

should do with joe when very far from the cost of life. so these are, is definitely not demonstrating the escalating plot what we see, you, i, in continuation what my colleague said, that even if these big military build up would be, or what is that, what is not we already witnessing? well, it is the cyber attacks against your brain just for the last month. you have to you, huge cyberg actually goes back against the government. so you should, in your re, as it is the economic located or the maritime located there, found the we, how was the know that black sea is being blocked by the russian military sizes. wow . ships for example, can molt cross the car straight for more than 60 hours to be worth all odessa. also, how difficult is needed to route many of the car big cargo sheets coming here. i just want to follow up with you also and ask you the ukrainians, largely trust what they're hearing from the government at this stage. are they happy with how presidents lensky is navigating all of this ukrainian so on that

happy and never trusting the governments and you tell the standard in one of your videos, the journalist found that ukraine doesn't trust the government? that's a little bit tricky thing because ukrainians never made to the president never perceived the president of the government of the gods or as the sar. so for auth is always the complaints about the government because for us that is democracy. the question is that if you see, for example, the percentage of population that trust the armed forces, it is more than 70 percent. the say when you speak about other agencies involved in the protecting security and defending ukraine, that's much more important in terms of the landscape. we know that he is bad, wrong, so definitely a lot of people saw that. he's not ready for the significant security threats and challenges. what's the practice? show us what now he managed more or less with the situation. oh,

would. would like to see better surely as any citizen? well, we would like our president to act even better perform even batch of down there. but that's. busy probably what, what else is it play here when it comes to what president put once? i mean, is it simply about ukraine, or is there a lot more at stake? well, let's go for my write up for russia. it's clearly not just about ukraine. ukraine is just part of the big, big picture. moscow is putting maximum pressure on the west on the united states and our eyes to, for them to make concessions and agree to a new framework of security in europe. that will give russia but much bigger say in what's happening in europe and more trying to it's believe ah, we're breaking into inside story, which you can see it out 0 dot com to take your lights,

them unix security conference, where britain's prime minister bars johnston is speaking consistently, reserve our unity and resolve, and that was the theme of my discussion last night with fellow leaders, including president biden present. macro chancellor schultz and primacy draggy, as well as the leaders of nato. and the e. u. and as i said to president putin, during our last conversation, we in the u. k. still hope that diplomacy and dialogue may yet succeed. but we also have to be unflinchingly honest about the situation today. when over a 130000 russian troops are gathering on the borders of ukraine, and when more than 100 battalion, tactical groups threaten that european country, we must be united against that threat because we should be in no doubt what is at stake here. if ukraine is invaded, and if you crane is overwhelmed, we will witness the destruction of

a democratic state, a country that has been free for a generation with a proud history of elections. and every time the western ministers of visited give, we've assured the people of ukraine and their leaders, that we stand foursquare behind their sovereignty and independence. how hollow, how meaningless, how insulting those words would seem if at the very moment when their sovereignty in independence is imperiled. we simply look away. if ukraine is invaded, the shock will echo around the world. and there is echoes will be heard in east asia. they will be heard in taiwan when i spoke to the prime ministers of japan and australia this week, they left me in no doubt that the economic and political shocks would be felt on

the far side of the world. so let me be clear about the risk. the risk now is that people would draw the conclusion that aggression pays and that might is right. so we should not underestimate the gravity of this moment. and what is at stake, as i speak to you today, we do not fully know what president putin intense, but the omens are grim and that is why we must stand strong together. the u. k. has worked with the european union and the united states to put together the toughest and strongest package of sanctions. and i spoke recently to present ursula on the line to discuss the measures prepared by the you in close is chord nation with our own. and if russia invades its neighbor,

we will sanction russian individuals and companies of strategic importance to the russian state. and we will make it impossible for them to raise finance on the london capital markets. and we will open up the material. could goals of russian owned companies and russian owned entities to find the ultimate beneficiaries within. and if president putin believes that by these actions, he can drive nato back or intimidate nato. he will find that the opposite is the case already the u. k. and our allies, strengthening the defenses of east and flank of nato, were increasing the british contribution to exercise co response by cindy on used air craft carrier. h. miss prince of wales and 3 commando brigade were doubling our presence in estonia to nearly 2000 troops. we've increased our presence in poland to 600 troops by sending 350 marines from full 5 commando. we've

increased our presence in the skies oversize eastern europe with another 6 typhoons, based in cyprus, were sending warships to the eastern mediterranean and the black sea. and i paced another 1000 troops on standby to respond to any humanitarian emergency which we all fear is increasingly likely. and while the most alarming in the most visible threat is the massing of russian land forces on ukraine's borders. look at the naval build up in the black sea, which threatens to blockade ukraine. look at the massive cyber attacks and the incoming tide of disinformation. this crisis extends into every domain, which is why the case providing nato with more land sea and air forces. i mean, it is because we feared a crisis like this that we were already engaged in the biggest increase in defense

investment for a generation spread across conventional capabilities and the new technologies of the ever more important to our collective defense. and i'm proud to say that since russia invaded ukraine for the 1st time, an annex crimea, in 2014, we have been helping you crate training 22000 troops. and in recent months, in response to the threat, we have been among the nations to send defensive weaponry in the form of 2000 anti tank missiles. i'm glad that we've been joined in this by the united states by poland and bio baltic allies. and the many other nations and the you have like the u. k, helped to strengthen ukraine's economy. britain will always stand up for freedom and democracy around the world. and when i say that our commitment to european securities, immovable and unconditional,

our deeds show that we mean our words. we are making the biggest contribution of nato, a to nato of any european allies because we understand the importance of connective security. and just as our european friends stood by us off to the russian state, used chemical weapons, and souls were used to chemical weapon in salisbury. so britain will stand by you. but we must accept that these measures by the u. k and our allies. draconian sanctions. rinsing out dirty money, the intensification of nato's defense is fortifying our ukrainian friends. they may not be enough to deter russian aggression, and it is therefore vital that we learn the lessons of 2040. whatever happens in the next few days in weeks, we cannot allow european countries to be blackmailed by russia. we cannot allow the

threat of russian aggression to change the security architecture of europe. we cannot commit a new yalta, a new division of our continent into spheres of influence. and we must now wean ourselves of dependence on putin's oil and gas. and i understand the, the costs and the complexities of this effort. and the fact that ease easier said than dance. i'm grateful to chancellor sholtes his assurances about node stream too . but the lessons of the last few years and of gaz problems, obvious manipulation of european gas supply cannot be ignored. we must ensure that by making full useful, tentative supplies and technology, we make rushes threats redundant, and that will be the work of the months and years to come, as well as the necessary. david you steps that we in the u. k. mistake to protect our own financial system. and we now need to prepare ourselves for the

russian play book of deception that governs every operation of this kind. there will be a cascade of false claims about ukraine, intended to spread confusion almost for its own sake. and even now, there are plans being laid for stage de venice spinning a web of falsehoods designed to prevent any russian attack as a response to provocation. we've already witnessed a fake military withdrawal combined with staged incidence. the could provide a pretext for military action. we knew this was coming, we've seen it before, and no one should be fooled. and we have to steal ourselves for the possibility of a protracted crisis with russia, maintaining the pressure and searching for weaknesses over an extended period. and we must to.