and still being allowed to go ahead and compete. ah, so this is out there are, these are the top stories in french president manuel macaroni has had a phone conversation with rashida vladimir putin. the 2 countries it to work on a high level summit between russia, ukraine, and european allies under simmons is more from ki f. done it. we're hearing now from the french that there is no, definitely no se, se, organization, security and cooperation in europe is going to be meeting with the ukrainians and the russians on monday. also on monday we're. busy also hearing that even 3, all the french foreign minister is meeting get survey leverage. they're having talks on the phone. this is all about trying to get some sort of sci fi in eastern to ukraine. the dumbass region of conflict. 14000 dead in the past 8

years there. since the republics broke away from ukraine. russia has extended his military deployments in bella, rue, citing an escalation, attention, nate, the ukraine, ukrainian border around $30000.00 russian soldiers have been carrying out exercises in better rooms. britons, queen elizabeth, has tested positive for covert. 19 a back in palo says to 95 year old one of his experiencing mild symptoms and will continue at uses. the grand ethiopian renee since damn, has begun generating electricity for the 1st time. if you have been prime minister, i'll be up at tenant the inauguration ceremony of africa's largest hydro electric is that, you know, devices. i got ads, the downstream countries, the brothers, the people of egypt. and saddam, the water will flow and the world must know that the dam will not affect them. all that was said about ethiopia seeking to prevent the flow of water is untrue, and we will not allow the people to starve or thirst. these are our principles and

our position and we affirm the flow of water to the people from the dam is to develop and bring 60000000 ethiopians out of the darkness. we seek integration between the 3 countries and a real partnership security forces in su, dime have 5 tier gas during the latest protest condemning the q in october. demonstrate as margin several areas of the capital call to thousands of held weekly rally since military takeover. talked to revive the iran euclid dealer report lead nearing a final agreement to vienna. but it's her on 250 members of parliament demonte a guarantee that they will not put the will not blood of any you do that headlines . more news herron out 0. right. i'll stay inside story. now. ah.

they were supposed to stop conflict in eastern ukraine, but the men's agreements have been repeatedly violated since 2015. with the threat of a russian invasion in the accord still provide a path to peace. this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm how much i'm jerome, political leaders, and diplomats say they're working hard to prevent a russian invasion of ukraine. the so called misc agreements. keep coming up in their discussions. they were signed in belarus to try and secure a ceasefire between ukrainian government forces and russian backed separatists in eastern ukraine. the 1st version in 2014 fail to take hold. so a 2nd,

a court called minsk, too, was signed the following year. but both sides accuse each other of breaking the agreement. at least 14000 people have been killed in fighting during the past 8 years. monitors from the organization for security and cooperation in europe or o s. c, e have reported hundreds of cease fire violations a day. despite this many diplomats insist the minsk agreements are the only way forward, secure peace. the minced agreements remain the only framework endorsed by his council and resolution 2020 at 220. 2, for a negotiated peaceful settlement of the conflict and eastern ukraine, gave me phony, mythical, assuring. kiss doesn't comply with the mince agreements, refuses to establish a direct dialogue with the nets and low hands. undermines the agreements to introduce changes in the constitution and exclusive statute on bass, local elections. and the amnesty all key issues of the minsk agreements showed them

was law regarding the possible recognition of the so called don yeske and the hans people's republics of the russian. duma of a let remind once again of the ukrainian position which has never changed. if recognition is approved, russia will exit the means, could agreements defacto and according to the lorris, well, with all the consequences to come to the men's to agreement contains 13 points. 9 are designed to end the armed conflict and ukraine, while the other for address the political impasse between kev and the pro russia rebels. the agreement calls for the removal of heavy weapons hostage exchanges release of political prisoners and the pull out of all foreign armed groups. it also sets a road map for political dialogue. this includes giving the donnie exc, and low hand screech in some devolved powers and holding elections there. but russia once special status for the regions before returning the border to keep

control. russia maintains it was only a facilitator and not part of the conflict inside ukraine. so it is not bound by the terms of the agreement. ah. all right, let's bring in our guests in moscow. andre court to north director general of the russian international affairs council in give me hi lo, winette ski associate professor of sociology at national university of keg. he have more he law academy in istanbul. matthew brides, a senior fellow at the atlanta council and former national security council official at the white house. a warm welcome to you all and thanks so much for joining us today on inside story. me. hi lo, let me start with you. why haven't the minsk agreements worked and what are the problems inherent in them? well, there is one very simple thing that is in the midst agreements that was agreed to in the 1st mexican 2nd meant that russian troops must leave ukrainian soil. simple

as that until such time as russian troops have not left ukrainian soil, there is very little to talk about with respect to misc. there's a requirement for a local election. there's a requirement for changing the constitution better. but none of that can be done until such time as that territory is occupied by russia forces. and today to talk about men's, cuz quite frankly, completely ludicrous. because we have almost $200000.00 troops on our borders expected to be invading the rest of ukraine anytime soon. so i mean quite frankly, mens is well effectively dead and and it was put, it was basically killed by the kremlin bike not when, when basically both decided to ignore the basics of the, of the agreement. and that was to withdraw russian troops at andre bye, by most accounts. the minsk agreements essentially were dead on arrival. they have

not worked from your perspective, can they be reworked? can they be modified in a way that the process would work going forward? and if so, how well, i think that turner least equally we should probably focus so on the so called military package within them is grimace. which implies the 1st 2 or 3 points of the agreement signed us 7 years ago, festivals, table and de verifiable cease fire. a 2nd was the roll of heavy weapons. and 2 of those tanks in oil c, monitor emissions in don boss. if they're able to comply with the 1st 3 points of the miss grims, that would already be event a significant progress. later on, we can move her to the political agenda. we sure will probably have to be modified oh, or are dated. but of course, that would require

a consent of all those who signed the new agreements. matthew, there are a lot of diplomats right now that are saying the minsk agreements are really the only path forward when it comes to trying to de escalate this crisis. when it comes to the united states, they've had very little involvement in this process. how much can the us get involved now? will probably can't get involved directly in the mince group negotiations because at least russia, france, and germany who are the ones that kind of, you know, where the, where the leaders along with ukraine or the participants. they don't want us to participate. i think ukraine would love the u. s. to be involved in the negotiations, but there is not a direct role for the united states. but of course, there's a huge indirect role for the united states. first and foremost by rallying nato and maintaining a solidarity right now in an attempt to deter further russian use of military force against ukraine. and it's important to know that this threat by russia to use force

is negotiating tactic. it may be or a genuine threat to re invade ukraine as well. but it's negotiate. it's a piece of negotiating. leverage are very important piece. the goal, however, of russia i think, is not really to get to minsk agreements finalized. but of course rushes objectives, as articulated by president, putin are much broader than the men agreement. and they all have to do with pushing back nato into its pre 1997 borders and carlo it looked earlier like you wanted to jump in. i'm going to let you do that, but i also want to ask you, are officials in kiev worried that the west is going to try to use this russian threat to strong arm ukraine into accepting moscow's version of the men sc agreements? ok, well i want to say 3 things that i'm going to be very brief about. first of all, people in ukraine are an official than ukraine are worried about being invaded the west at the moment, helping us. and we are very grateful for the military economic and political aid,

the medicaid that is being provided. quite frankly, one of the reasons that we can, has not invaded the country on mass yet has to do with the fact that there is western support. so quite frankly, we're not concerned about the west somehow leading us drive with this many agreements at the end of the day, everybody's working towards avoiding a further invasion. my. the other thing that i wanted to stay with my american colleagues, frankly, the goal is to try to stop nato with cetera, which it has made it very clear what you want. the whole nato thing is, quite frankly, just. i mean, it's a diversion at the end of the day. what you want to control ukraine, put, you wants to re, re establish greater russia. he is the gatherer of the russian land. this is what he is about. and ukraine is something that is an absolute requirement, trotsky 100 years ago said russia cannot exist without you. great. and that is

something that is continued to be something that is in the russian mind and the rational political agenda for the last 30 years. and quite frankly, today is for now is the time according to if we can do try to make that dream a reality. finally, with respect to the many agreements, we need to understand that these agreements refined when working was holding a gun. ukraine head, the 1st agreement was signed after he bar after he was bombarding where you both. the 2nd agreement was signed after there was, there were russian troops on the ground in ukraine, in a place called developable. in both cases, the goal was to create a cease fire that cease fire has basically plus or minus of health for the last 5 or 6 years. there's been a line of contact and that's the line of contact that i've had minimal firing across, shooting on either side. during the last day. we have over 100 c fire violations.

and those, these fire violations of all come from the russian by the end of the day, ukraine's demand and very simple russians get out of our territory. matthew, you were reacting there to some of what we jaila was saying. i'm going to let you jump in. yeah, no, i totally agree. i mean, i agree with everything that we highly upset and you know, of course ukraine is the immediate, huge focus that we put in trying to do. but there is this broader geo strategic objective as well when, who talks about the desire for a whole new european security architecture, which, which i think is, is going to end up being a proposal, the dead on arrival. but as far as the bolts of it goes, that's a very important example. immediately after means to assign russians mounted a major assault on the baltimore in total violation of the 1st aspect of the minster. second, minsk agreement, which was the cease fire, as well as the 1st minister game, which was a cease fire. so from the beginning, russia has not observed them in the agreements and the contrary. as me. hi lou said it has kept its military forces in ukraine. honest territory,

even if it denies that there, there, it has allowed the illegal arm formations of the, the don't ask region to remain in place. those were supposed to be disbanded. and har from moving heavy military equipment out of don't boss. russia has matched up to 190000 troops with heavy equipment near the border. so when russia demands that ukraine comes into compliance with uminski agreements, well a it's, it's not in compliance and be if it's threat to use military force is supposedly to bring ukraine into compliance. well, then it's doesn't make any sense that russia still claims not to be a party to those agreements or the conference. why would you threaten to invade a country to enforce an agreement that you claim you're not a party of andre? earlier this month, there were talks between ukrainian and russian officials in the normandy format, but they really failed to make a breakthrough correct. those are right. that's right. there was disappoint. but

this pressed by mr. cause who is a special envoy of president boot and he argued that you failed to get any flexibility on the premium side in terms of the pain and compliance with agreements . and do you think that there will be further talks going forward? well i think the eve, for indeed her, the diplomatic botha is something that they would prefer. i, in the clarendon. this is the only way to go. it seems delta, my co panelists are from the united states and ukraine are know, much better than i do. what would the really wants and what he is up to? unfortunately, i don't have such a great context into clarendon to make sure that the invasion is eminent and that is likely to happen anytime soon. however, i would suggest that it's not logical for who tim to launch

a major military operation in ukraine. it's a lot that russia can lose, or it's not much that russia can gain. i think it's in the interests of the camden to preserve the passion ukraine, and to insist on the full compliance of the music agreements as they were signed 7 years ago. i think that this is the ultimate goal because of the, our compliance with uminski agreements, ultimately a might center and all stickle ah, may be a strategic obstacle or no, you can't join in the nato alliance. and this is cy. const i think that this is the goal that bruton is trying to accomplish. if he is able to prevent you clean. joining nato through other means that probably he will demonstrate more flexibility on the implications of the means kicked him, us mikaela. i can see that you want to jump in before you do. i just also want to ask you, do you think that there are going to be more normandy format talks coming forward?

and even if there were some type of agreement as that were reached, do you think that president lensky would actually be able to push this kind of deal through parliament in ukraine? look, i want to react 1st of all, what? like my colleague, my colleagues said, very simple, we don't have information as to whether or not there will be an imminent and all we know is there a 190000 groups on our borders and those 190000 groups are not exactly depends. most of them are what's called italian tactical groups. those are attack forces. first of all, secondly, i read the kremlin website. i listen to what it says. and 14 specifically has said and the website, if you want to, in july published his musings on the history of ukraine and russia and how we are supposed to be one people. you've come up many,

many times and said that he does not recognize the grains right to exist as a separate country. i am a ukranian. i would like to exist. i believe that it leaves us very little room for negotiation when someone is invading you and says that you have no right to exist and you are defending yourself and you are saying i have a right to exist. what is there to negotiate about? it's very much a to be or not to be type of scenario. there's very little to negotiate now. yes, we are of course, interested in having a norman, the former us for my president. the west has said that he would be very happy to bring in president aragon from from turkey into the, into the situation he has stated yesterday. and you know, that he would love to meet with you with, you know, not interested in meeting with him is interested in destroying at the end of the day. ukrainians are preparing to defend themselves. there's very little to talk about at that point when you are at the, at gunpoint. that is the reality at the moment you can,

you is. and i will not say evacuating, but certainly very, very concerned, particularly after president, by the statement of the fact that putting has already made his decision. we have seen maps. we are seen troops trip build ups. and we have do what president would you have to say? and unfortunately, none of that makes us particularly confidence in the prospects for peace. matthew, what do you think you think there's going to be more of these are many format talks going forward. and even if there are, and even if there is some type of agreement that has reached, do you think that it will hold? well, i don't anticipate enormity format to sketch. and until the current extreme high level of tension decreases. and you know what, what we're seeing right now in eastern ukraine is exactly what we saw in georgia in august 2008. when there are supposedly, were peacekeepers on the ground from russia. but there were separatists who open fire on georgian military positions. this is happening in eastern ukraine as well.

right now. ukrainian leadership is withholding counter strikes the georgia government did for awhile. but then it did retaliate and that prompted a full scale russian invasion of georgia. so i think this is exactly what president putin is trying to provoke. again, he's talked about a military technological response if his demands are not met, but not an invasion. so what he's going to do is say, well the ukrainians thought back we didn't invade, we were defending that we were defending against their assault on the shepherdess troops. so until that clears until that crisis moment clears, it's an academic exercise to talk about more normandy format discussions. and again, russia claims it's not a party to the misc agreements. then why in the world would it's threaten and threatened an invasion to kill tens of thousands of people. civilians, for the implementation of an obscure agreement to which acquainted is not a party. it just the story does not hold together. but before we can get back to normandy, got to get past this moment of high military tension. and matthew,

i guess, one of the concerns would be that president putin is using the men's agreements as a political tool. this must be something that western countries are very worried about, right. i hope they are. i mean, you, in a lot of discussions, i listen to and have been involved with your europeans, told try to hold ukraine, speak to the fire and say, you know, if, if you don't implement the mask agreements then, well, then suggesting perhaps russia has a justification to try to force implementation then that that's a total red herring. moscow does not care about the minsk agreement. so i hope i hope that throughout the nato alliance, european leaders do recognize mohammed just what you said. that the minister agreement, really, again, the focus on it now is a red herring. what russia is about now is yes, is mikayla's said destabilizing ukraine, preventing ukraine from ever joining nato. and i stand by what i said before, also re litigated the post cold war security framework to which russia agreed. by

the way, it agreed in 1994 in the budapest memorandum to support ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. if you can give up it's nuclear weapons, ukraine lived up to its end of the bargain. russia has violated as deeply as you could. andre, the fact that the minsk agreements are not legally binding. how much does that complicate this all? well, i think the lead to might open where it is and use of for the rational id is shipper in don barza, for instance, a given the current escalation or i'd love to exclude a diplomatic reza, recognition of the breakout of objects or by russia. and that would be, of course, a game changer that would indeed make this situation is to can somewhat similar to what happened in georgia, beck and the $2.00 oh $8.00. and then i think are the main screen agreements will collapse. i don't think that the probability is very high,

but i do not exclude that. because in my view, the state duma would have never advanced such an idea if they had not received a nod from the cabinet. so right now, i think this is probably more likely challenger to the music agreements than an invasion of russia across the board with ukraine. at least that's how i see the situation to day. and for me are the most immediate task is to preserve them in sca agreements to avoid a diplomatic or a combination of their break away republics. and to get back to the negotiating table. i don't think that we have other plausible options to reach any progress in de escalate and the situation and the halo. i'm curious to get your perspective on one thing and most people say that the men's agreements have essentially been a failure from the outset. have there been any successes that have come from them?

well look, there was an attempt to, to push to parliament, some changes to, to, to the great constitution. those failed. but we do have one of the requirements, the political requirements, the minister agreement was to provide in parliament a law special law that provided more economy for those areas that are currently occupied. should one of the, one of the presumption of that law for it to go go forward was for the occupation to end. in other words, russian troops leave. and then these areas become integrated into the rest of the grain as autonomy, regions with their own police forces with their own judiciary. in other words, significant amounts of autonomy. those steps were made. however, at the end of the day, the military requirements of a full fire and withdrawal of russia troops had never happened. and as a matter of fact, what we're seeing now is

a further escalation and further advancement of rush and forces onto grant or oral integrity. i do want to say that, you know, we're all hoping for peace. we're all hoping for some sort of a resolution to this. but at the end of the day, when president biden comes out and says that the decision has been made and put in, has made his decision. and the u. s. best that the decision to move in by russian forces has been made. that makes it very, very difficult to even dream about any kind of a peaceful solution. at the moment we're looking for de escalation, mikaela, you mentioned the hope for a peaceful solution. if there is a peaceful resolution to all that's going on right now, would there be any appetite in ukraine for uminski base settlement? look, i'm not sure that it needs to be mid space. it could be any other to the other city if you like, but the reality is that yes, grants are interested in a settlement. having said that,

we are interested in also de escalation on our borders. we are not interested in having rushing cruise on our borders. constantly, secondly, the dunbar crisis and the fact that there is an occupation in eastern grades should not be separated from the fact that there is an illegal annexation of crimea that has happened. and crimea has officially been now supposedly transferred to the russian federation. well, that's problematic as well. so russia and taken over 7 percent of our territory and continues to be threatening to take more. so looking at peaceful solutions, of course. but at the end of the day, i think ukrainians understand today that the existential threats that russia presents to ukraine is long term. and we will have to deal with that long term. it's not something that's going to go away tomorrow for as long as the pushing regime remains in the ground. all right, well, we have run out of time, so we're going to have to leave our conversation there. thank you so much. all of our guests. andre cartoon of me hi, low, the net sky,

and matthew bryce. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, al jazeera dot com and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story, you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is at a inside story from him, how much i'm doing a whole team here. bye for now. the news. news. news. ah, ah,

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you. how does in europe ah, this is al jazeera ah, over there on the clock. this is, these are large, doha, coming up in the next 60 minutes. francais, it's working with russia to try and reach a sci fi in easton ukraine. but beller, it says russian troops participating in joint military drills will stay indefinitely because of rising tension on ukraine's border. britain's queen