i bought a fresh look at european security structure. these are negotiable, important issues, not only for russia, also for euro, also for the long term security and durability of a stability in europe and the united states shouldn't be aboard. but if we have an american president who's all liberal and who is nostalgia to the cold war world, that's a different ball game. if we have a russian president who is the subject, our goal war again, that's different. and that's why europeans and others need to really get behind diplomacy in the sense that there is no better option. war is not a good option because it would lead to something worse than conventional confrontation. now when we're talking about the nuclear bows right there, one fancy with no means do you just to interrupt you because we are killing out to our next program. very briefly. i apologize for cutting across your posting. is there one aspect of a one facet to this and it's this and it might be that europe's only got itself to

blame this nord stream to pipeline for a long time. now energy analysts and security analysts have been signaling the same thing. and they've said you are making europe, you are making yourself a hostage to fortune or a hostage to the vagaries of what mister putin may or may not want to do with these former soviet states. and now, fast forward to where we are now, a multi 1000000000 euro project is becoming a points of leverage in this relationship in this game of diplomacy that may spill over into being a much more dangerous game. i'm not clear about that peter, at all. what we've seen from the russians for the last number of years is that they have not used gas as leverage. whenever there was some sort of a heated competition. conflict or crisis where the west, they have not used gas not so far. and what we've known from germany is that unlike

other westerners, they think of russia as a partner, they thought of it for the last 30 years. as of now 30 years, 20 years, or some as a, as a potential partner. look the head of gas problem, right? in the board is a former german gun, chancellor of, of gas rome. so there is a sense that europe is a neighbor of russia. that's what we meant by feet close to the fire. europe is not the united states. europe needs to live with russia, needs it needs to coexist with russia. and if it's russia's put in that it be luscious potent, if it's frances macro, that it be. and here british a borders work just. but as johnson that it be. so i think in a sense, we need to understand of europe as a security and ecosystem. our russia deals 90, of which i apologize to come back and talk to us in our next news our that follows annex program inside story we'll see soon. ah,

with russia deploys troops to ethan ukraine off the recognizing the independence of breakaway territories. lavine approved in also questioning ukraine statehood. is it a prelude to a wider on conflict? what impact western sanctions have? this is inside story. ah ah. hello and welcome to the show. i'm sammy's a than russian president vladimir putin, a sent troops into ukraine that came after he recognised the independence of 2 self

declared republics and breakaway regions. and western countries of accused moscow of taking a step towards a full blown invasion, began the process of imposing sanctions, put in question ukraine's right to sovereignty and said, russian troops will be there for peacekeeping purposes. should go on. but i consider it necessary to make a long overdue decision to immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty of the people's republic and de la, hans people's republic. i asked the federal assembly of the russian federation to support this decision and then to ratify the treaty of friendship. and mutual assistance with both republics, most of the pretty much in the past, it is also essential to understand that ukraine has never had a tradition for genuine statehood. and since 1991, it has taken the path of mechanical copying of foreign models torn off both from history and from ukrainian realities. political and state institutions were

constantly we shaved to sit the rapidly formed clans with their selfish interests. that had nothing to do with the interests of the people of ukraine. the whole point of the so called pro western centralized choice of ukraine's oligarchy. power was and is not to create the well being of the people. but you obsequious, the provide services to russians. geopolitical rivals are saving millions of dollars stolen from ukrainians and hidden by oligarchs in a western bank account. and right after the announcement, the western world began reacting us. president joe biden made the statement through twitter banks. i have signed an executive order to deny rush of the chance to profit from it's blatant violations of international law. we are continuing to closely consult with allies and partners, including ukraine on next steps. law the western leaders also want put in against annexation after his announcement. if that is annexation,

it will be sanctions and if that is a recognition, i will put the sanctioned on the table and the ministers will decide. keep in mind, which is the practice of sanctions according with their treaty sanctions have being approved by the foreigner. first ministers cancel my unanimity. this is plainly in breach of international law. it sir. a violation of flagrant violation of the sovereignty and integrity of the earth of ukraine. ah, it is a repudiation of thee or of the minx process in the minx agreements. and i think it's a very ill omen and a very dark sign. and it certainly does not seem to me that did it's, it's certainly an indication yet another indication of that things are moving in

the wrong direction in ukraine or the u. k. will continue to do everything we can to stand by the people of, of ukraine. ah, with a very robust package of sanctions that as you know, what i can tell you, oh, and reiterate our position which the united nations fully supports the independent sovereignty and territorial integrity of ukraine within its internationally recognized borders as stated very clearly and relevant general assembly resolutions and again, we would encourage everyone involved to refrain from many unilateral decision or unilateral action, so that could undermine the territorial integrity of ukraine. and the implementation of the misc agreements i think is endorsed by the security council. and with regards to the status of a new house. ah,

let's bring our guests into the show now we have joining us from moscow in russia, pavel folk, and how he's a defense and military analyst with no via gazette in brussels. theresa fallon is director at the center for russia, europe, asia studies, and in care of peter's and my have. he's the executive director at the eurasia democracy initiative. welcome to will let me start then with peter. is this a pre load to a wider invasion? what's the view from while he's seen that lime report and has prepared the ground, said that with his decision to recognize these so called the peoples republic of law school, the gnats, and the essentially unilateral condition of the mill agreement. she have untied his hands, the, you know, the puppet states now are claiming that they want to to have the rest of the

territory, which is still under ukrainian control. and that is like 2 thirds still occupied by putting henchmen. that means, you know, russia through its part that states has much further into ukraine's territory to go and let him know if not planning to do that. he's definitely made it very possible for himself in the next 2 days to try to re conquered that rhetoric and still, you know, reconvene laudable as few things do. not that he is involved like what he did with crye b and the so called green man. this would be a sort of help from the dairy, the kind of brotherly assistance to the brotherly state of the hosp. the next you could even and try to invoke other nations from the former soviet republics, to a members of the collective security treaty organization to make it look like an

international peace action by continuing to claim that russia, ukraine is the one that has been attacking the don, boss, this is interesting. you mentioned that the green men, pavel in moscow, russia has long been accused of having its soldiers in don't. the exc and lou dance the so called little of the so called green men. you know that without official insignia. does it make a huge difference now that russia is recognizing and officially announcing that it's putting troops there? oh yes, i mean, the 1st time the green man appeared that was in crimea, because 1st russia was saying that the user woke or be bull kind of. now rebelling against the a government or the non government and key f, then force of was said, officially, these are russian troops. and russia has never up to now acknowledged that there are russian service men in the dung boss. though there were said that these are may

be volunteers who took her a recess from active service and went there as volunteers. but now we have a thought to a different situation. this would be russian officials or soldiers, though the last reports coming or in moscow are the brush will not right now, move its troops into bennett school ganske though there are the reports that, that there has doing it. but anyways, if be frank, being on the line of control continues even small skirmishes. and if it gets in, the russian forces get involved, actually wiggly. and if there's going to be room boards and the russians, they to t v about rush young russian soldiers being killed by or wounded by ukrainians. that's already approved for a direct, a cranium. russian war that can asco, 8 into it know off rush, ukrainian war,

which conferred the actual esco it into new european war. and so it's a very slippery slope we are right now on. and of course, her teacher has also said yesterday that ukraine will become later member will no matter what the western powers right now say, and the else. and so that so, so kind of mean and factions will be imposed there anyway. so he was actually digging his he is in and saying that rash will take action. and now it's clear that how it might happen, though, of course, may be that's not happening now. and right. and there's going to be the fire again, imposed in the done bus. but we'll have to see what's happening in the next several days. i wonder if we're already getting a hint of what you are talking about puzzle. let me take this point to teresa. was it telling when we heard the russian president was that any further regression as he put it from kiev, will cause bloodshed, bloodshed,

which kids will be responsible for? is that perhaps an indication of the sort of scenario hovel was just talking about . russian casualties could lead to a bigger, you know, wider invasion is a very serious situation that we're in the speech yesterday by president. pretend the 65 minute long diatribe has been at many hours. have said it's a declaration of war. and so we've seen the bite in administration trying to identify these false leg activities for the last few days. and it seemed that put in just decided to go ahead with this, even though that the idea of 5 ukrainian soldiers passing into russia most people had said that that was a false flag and an excuse for russia to take these actions. so i think that they are trying to frame it. they are preparing the russian public for possible war, possible people coming home in body bags. and as we know that as evacuate women and children from the region, the men are staying as they're expected to,

to fight. so i think that with $190000.00 troops surrounding ukraine, i think that it might be more than just declaring the hans and donuts sovereign. and the other thing that's a bit unclear right now is that how much of that area is it just what's occupied now by russian proxies or will it be the entire region? and so i think that the kremlin is almost deliberately keeping that unclear because at this point, no one really knows. that's the big question mark over everyone. and that will have an effect on the type of sanctions that both the europeans are willing to impose. and it's interesting to note that just short as your presentation noted, the u. k, which is no breaks of it from the rest of europe, is trying to lead the charge here. and they've already announced sanctions. but the 1st set of sanctions on 5 banks and 3 russian entity people. so i

think that they're trying to lead the charge and the europeans may be a bit divided on this. but we've also seen a clear message from german chancellor shots that north through 2 will be suspended the rush and gas pipeline to germany. right. there's a lot for us to pick up, especially when it comes on sanctions. but before we go down there, i want to ask peter and kim peter, i can see your angling together and let me allow you to get him with a comment for i pose the question to you then? well yeah, i just wanted to say, you know, as far as the sanctions, i mean we'll, we'll talk more in depth about it. i did want to mention that it's very notable that the german chancellor finally who up till now was reluctant to even name allude to nordstrom to buy by name. finally put his where his mouth was and stated on, on the biggest that stream to has been hold it. this is very important. odd. this

is a troubling developing for vitamin when you are, if you decide to act as a unified question front against vitamin when it's going to make it much more complicated. it's a sort of game of chicken that is involved in where the both sides tried to see who's worked 1st as their careening down the highway towards each other. all right, let's take them this point to puzzle in moscow pollutant could have done this step a long time ago. months ago, perhaps even years ago. is this really part of a careful strategy on the part of the russian president to slowly turn the heat up on the west? because he's, his goal is to get his demands, match more than getting himself enrolled in a wider invasion of ukraine. what do you think puzzle? well, it's not really slow. the events began happening last december and they are

developing very swiftly towards pos world war actually is an issue in then if we take what happened with crimea, that was quite quick when, when putin decided he wants to go in and take it heritage, you know, people literally woke up and their rush was that wasn't this month's of a stand often demands and meetings in negotiations and back and forth was the lemming. because right now we're now of course in a different situation than then and the road, the russia. why right now russia has put the demands so drastically for and that and is, and kind of demanding that to give us worthwhile waste the one door we'll take it by force. i. again, that's not totally clear why right now puts and believes that he so is so emboldened or he doesn't have the and clinical support of the russian population. people are scared over

a possible war. he doesn't even have be unequivocal support of the entire rush in a week and a half. he is actually people in the kremlin and his administration fully many have apprehensions on watch right now happening but apparently right outwards and believes that he is in the position to put demands that way better because of these new hypersonic weapons that russia has been developing and he believes that that gives russia the upper hand and that russia now is militarily stronger for the time being. and should really use this opportunity at to push the west and united states away from its borders. secure a kind of buffers, a big buffer zone between itself and the west and nato. i guess i, we don't though for sure, but it looks like that. all right, let me bring theresa in to reason. given that does diplomacy still have a chance?

and we, we always must try for diplomacy, but we've seen this diplomats and we're leaders beating a path to the kremlin store and pretty much nothing was happening. i mean, even well as of the u. k. said he had to, with of munich about it, because there is never any de escalation that was kind of what was needed for continued dialogue. so the russians pretended to de escalate, well, continuing to escalate and having all of these discussions. we saw president chrome pretty much humiliated because after 5 hours of discussions we put in put in said it was a form of torture. having to talk to chrome for so long as there's very present here course, the russian narrative on this. and they would say that's because the west has been wasting time in these negotiations and not observing as they see it rushes, security demands and concerns and not addressing them well. they had the meeting at nato, which was the 1st time in 2 years that they met at that level. and i think the way

that put in submitted his demands was not a way of having dialogue. he said, this is what we want. we want this to be a treaty, so there was no discussion really, there was no dialogue, it was like, take it or leave it. and i think that there were some off rims offered to put in, for example, discussions, untruth placement, missile placement, and possibly, you know, nuclear weapons discussions once again to reanimate those discussions. so i think that they did try to offer them off ramps, but put in, it has not accepted that at all. and i think that instead of getting less nato, the cremeans getting more neo, we're seeing a sweden and finland watching this very closely. and as we know, they are neutral countries, but maybe if you're not a member of nato, this is what will happen to you. all right, let me bring in once again peter,

the message from kev has been very clear in the last few days that they wanted strongest sanctions and they wanted the now, what do you think the analysis will be in care of, of the sanctions which have been impose so far away enough. well, once again, i think the signal from germany is kind of expected because germany, germany has been considered the odd man out as far as that we're comp coordinated western policy. putting has been banking on the support of germany as the coastline touch. there's those on tried to understand and sympathize with russia. so once again, this is probably has thrown a monkey wrench into let him are putting his calculations as far as jo, biden's and now sanctions against the state. let's, well, this is part of the strategy to still use them as potential for potential kind of a leverage with russians. be, understand that, you know, they don't even reach the level of symbolism that is required. i mean, these republics already isolated quality entities. they don't trade with any one of

these sanctions don't go far. they don't bite. there is an understandable kind of upset the degree of a feeling we did over until it's over and bide, never announced that more sanctions are to come. so ukrainians are waiting to see, but let me just return to the point earlier about nato expansion. i just cannot avoid commenting on it once again. just to make it clear. the nato expansion has been a red herring. let me put the call along. i don't think he's concerned with ukraine joining nato. he knows it's not going to happen any time. so what he's concerned about is trying to recreate a former soviet union in a different shape or form. he considers the loss of ukraine a personal tragedy. she wants to ukraine to follow the kind of the trajectory of bella rules. ready next door, bella says it essentially over the last year, become a protectorate of russia and military education. and that's exactly what the

witness trying to achieve in great. he wants to dominate it, and he made it clear last, actually, yesterday, in his speech, she does not even recognize you quite as illegitimate state. he said as early as 20 years ago, in his meeting with george w bush's. george ukraine ain't even a country. and we're seeing 20 years later, we seeing a very direct kind of, you know, picking part when it comes to go that i want to bring in once again. puzzle puzzled . the sanctions are still coming in. take us through what we know about them so far . what sanctions are in place and what sort of impact do you think moscow wolf will deem them to have? oh whoa. as seen from moscow, these are the sanctions already announced to after the recognition of the sovereign vio, those dan dunbar, state wits, or rather mild. the russian stock exchange rebounds were, may were announced. i'm especially that need. there are big russian banks like off

of banks bear bank, but could burbank are not included and there was fears that they will be good immediately. so the, and of course, personal or pin point sanctions are not russians used to them more or less. so these are not yet where that serious sanctions at all. and the, the a former president, the now fortunes deputy in the security council meacham admitted to say, ah, they're going to friends, they're going to do yo. and then they're going to come to us and negotiate. so we just have to sit it out. and the same as after we invaded ga, ga and dec i recognize the sovereignty of a seizure and a closet. although right now i don't think that the noun sanctions are very much a kind of sir, is considered as a serious deterrent. all right, there will be 2,

aren't theresa talking about putin latest speech? is it something of a turning point up until now we were hearing the message from poo tin and from the foreign minister that hey, we don't want to invade. there is no invasion. this is all hysteria. and in the latest speech it sounded like futon was questioning the very rights of ukraine to exist as an independent country. yes, i think it is extremely worrying this message we're not seeing and holding as un states sovereignty issues are being he's not invading because it's not a southern country that's his narrative. and that many historians, for example, tim site or a b l university. so, so this is fantasy from a 1000 years ago. fairytale, so the fact that he is pretending it is not a country and therefore can be absorbed by russ i, i think is an extremely we're in narrative. and this is to kind of prep the russian population about this and kind of re absorbing their cousins. but i think that's

really what many analysts have stated that they will, that they will want to have regime change. they just need a leadership that will be more pro, rasa again, if you permit me to raise or present the perspective that, you know, on the other side, would argue that this is exactly what all will pals have done, including the u. s. with countries like cuba in their backyard that they want those phase of influences. well, of course they're, it's hard to tell people on 2022. you can only be a buffer state, and that's what russia ones they want ukraine to be one giant buffer states. and i think that it is clear that there will be no boots put on the ground by any western power in, in, in ukraine. that has been made absolutely clear, and i think that's pretty, has made his calculations. then they have proof, you know, whether prove themselves for the last 7 years with fortress russia. this idea of becoming less dependent on the west having other financial instruments. they only

use 16 percent of their exchanges are in dollars. no. so that's a big decline from 40 percent several years ago. so i think that they have been working and preparing on this. and let's not forget the big difference between now and what happens in crimea back in 2014, is that they have the taste that supports of beijing. we saw in go to beijing, signed this agreement with president she and so they have this understanding it by way from beijing or i'm afraid we are running out of time. we're gonna have to leave it there. it's been a great discussion. let's thank our guests, have all 4 been how theresa, fallon and peterson my have and thank you to for watching. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com for further discussion head over to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle, there is a j inside story. from me, sam is

a then and the whole team here for now. let's go by ah with ah

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and even trust. i feel like i'm alive, but i know i on the machine origins of the species owner, because it ah, this is al jazeera. ah, hello again, i am pete adobe. this is the al jazeera news, our and the tensions between russia and ukraine, dominate our coverage. this our, the russian president, vladimir putin, has got approval from the parliament to deploy his army abroad. sanchez, that has been approved by unanimity. the member estates were hurt russia. and.