it's so there are possibilities. russian shipping, perhaps mud mud able to use a bathroom stretch in the future. so there are a lot of consequences that could happen. it's important now for the ukrainian leadership to be able to be sure it can continue the functions of government. well probably some of that leadership. oh is so relocating western perhaps olivia maybe even some oh to paula. but maintaining that continuity of leadership is particularly important. the concern about that, especially because russian forces and bowers and western russia are located on both sides of the da nitro river. and so they can love south and, and circle both sides of korea, which is by said to burger denay pro river. so there's a lot of threat of the mother, but is still unclear how russia is going to conduct the entire version,

or they're planning a large scale, a ground attack all the way to tank all over ukraine, east of food, the disney pro river, or perhaps even go further or they hoping that the ground forces won't have to do too much work and that the air and missile attacks will cause a government to collapse. yeah, william, just a, just a quick thought to you. i mean, how are you assessing at the military kinetics, in terms of what we're seeing. so putin as ordered this special operation into the dumbass region. but yet we're seeing this attack on kevin other city is an a naval operations, as you pointed out in, as of we've heard about, say, a neighbor landing possibly in odessa is one a diversionary tactic for the other. how, how, how we are assessing both sides of these, of, of this military prong. so the shock attack is clearly intended to bring a collapse of government russians who hope to be able to install public government

without having to engage us land force all across the ukraine. because occupy and ukraine could be involved in very high casualties as ukrainian so now resistance and there's oversight that ukrainians would mount resistance. so all the criminals hoping that a shock attack will be an assault on the cheaper if you will. and that the government will collapse right away. and in that case, i think the problem simply does not understand. your great. all right, so william courtney that a junk sina thought of the rand corporation, william, thank you very much. that for your assessment of these rapidly developing situation in ukraine, let's go back to our zeros under simmons. he joins us now from the ukrainian capital, kim, andrew, i'm not sure if you can hear us, andrew and things moving thick and fast. just tell us, bring us up to date with what you've been seeing and hearing. yes, i think you can hear us now. what's been happening. they haven't keyed in the last few minutes since we last spoke to you. multiple attack sir,

concentrated initially on the airport for a small airport or the we are now hearing from the interior ministry that cruise missiles have been used. ah, we can identify the, the very, very loud explosions or the whole sky line lives up to the north west of the city, or about half an hour ago. at that appeared to be a hard air strike on the international airport. or we know that people have been evacuated from international airport, all staff and anyone else. there passengers and so on. there have been a siren screaming. we have been told again by into interior ministry that strategic targets. it would seem government, public administration had been selected that the apparently there is a lot of panic in the center of the city. our power went down here and in other places whereabouts, something like her. i would say no more than enough. 5 minutes drive from the very

center of the city, or with obviously taking some level of shelter. but at dawn is about to break. there are, there are a whole series of reports of other attacks, right? the way across the country. it is a full scale invasion, according to the foreign minister. he has a, has just, obviously a condemned the actions of vladimir putin. and we were told that sir, he, he's also basically saying that sir, that peaceful cities are coming under attack, that they had no, they had no, no cause whatsoever at some mount this scale of invasion or in the country by land, sea and air. where hearing that the, the net so called naval exercise in the as of sea, which caused an exclusion zone. 4 days ago, a landing craft actually have been used for,

for artillery pieces or through carriers, a number of trips in, in the port of near the port of odessa. or whether odessa has fallen or not. we don't know, but certainly there is a ground operation going on there with the navy having go offloaded equipment and the troops. we were also hearing from an al jazeera team that are in the south in the southeast, and that there seems to be outgoing fire. i'm where we can't confirm that we're not sure how much the ukrainians are trying to engage. the russian forces em denise pro airports again in the, in the south that the deep re poor came under rockets attack. it would seem that there is, are also a large number of reports of, of attacks in the cock heath ah, city of our honey, which has quite a, quite a large part of it in quite

a large ethnic russian population. there is, seems to be a relentless aspect to this whole invasion, such a shocking night that have been warnings to people that there could be attacks. but a lot of people have become complacent because there have been so many warnings that there will be astro. yes, there will be a ground attacks or these warnings they've been already been ignored by civilians. but certainly the wasn't an atmosphere in the city of readiness for anything on this scale. even though the warnings went out. i think it's probably because of the number of warnings with which have not been followed by action. however, we've been on alert for now for, for 48 hours because of all these reports and, and really now, this is just the beginning. and, and really the scale of this, this modern warfare. a, in a, in a, in a country like this. and you know, it really does serve strike on that, that, that,

that europe could be in this sort of condition assistance. yeah. answer to that play that there is a also yes, no, no, i'm just gonna say we're just talking to one of our, one of our commentators earlier. he talks about this possibly being the equivalent of shock and awe in terms of the russian multi faceted attack on ukraine. andrew, you were talking about preparedness at by the civilian population. bottom is zalinski. the ukranian president had called for a full mobilization of reservists in ukraine, but you are saying perhaps ukraine hadn't been prepared as they could be when they knew this attack was coming. it is difficult said suits and compensates in an authoritative manner on that, but i'm just going by what we've seen by the way that, that there are loud explosions a closer now it's much closer we. we think these are as strikes,

which we certainly think these are a strikes. and the point is this, that, that's it, we, we did, we, we were traveling from a border, the border between bill roost or russia and ukraine. and we noticed that they were reserve is getting fuel and only fuel stations. they seemed not particularly alarmed by anything pretty, pretty contained. remember, this country has been in a hybrid war with russia for 8 years. 14000 dead in the dorm bass. so there's a feeling of, i wouldn't say complacency, but just a feeling that like that may be, this is not going to happen or if it does happen, we'll somehow cope with it. if this has been anywhere else in, in europe, you'd seen panic, mass, mass, panic, buying the supermarket shelves, empty. you would have seen people running for cover getting out of the city, but know it that the that has not been the atmosphere to the very last with this invasion that people have really tried to cling on. so any normality they can get

in this country. and so really it's very hard to describe. but so right now that you can see in the eyes of people real alarm ambulance, few number of people we've met so far as real alarm in their eyes real terror. but the ferocity of what's, what's coming down from the air, from the sea and on land in this invasion. and we've yet to hear anything about don bass. it's unclear what's happening there, but just to update you on the navy have her use landing craft near the port of odessa. the sea of ours of is, is completely that there's a, there's a, there's no access for any shipping. there's no access the air, the actual space is closed or russia has sir, used her warplanes and in de cruise missiles it would seem a shell fire in some areas of. we're also hearing that sir. he's

a is under attack, and certainly strategic targets here in the capital of come under attack. i to andrew summons. are andrew stay safe? thank you indeed for that update will no doubt come back to you. let's get some response now from the ukrainians, because ukraine's foreign minister at the meter caliber tweeted out this statement a short while ago he said that putin has just launched a full scale invasion of ukraine. peaceful ukrainian cities are under strikes. this is a war of aggression. ukraine will defend itself and will win. the will cannon must opp putin. the time to act is now. let's bring in alexey haran. he's a political analyst and professor of comparative politics at care of moya academy joins us live now from the ukrainian capital care and alexi. i'm not sure what you can see in here where you are in care, but just tell us what's happening there. ok, i actually leave a handle to you, but i hear very clearly explosions. and from what i, you know,

i got calls from my friends. so 00. it seems like sarah missile attacks on key of military objects owns the airport. so actually we have now and full scale millicat aberration benefit, at least not limited to done bus. and in this case, i would like to draw your attention that it's high time to change that them in knowledge of what's going going because since 2014 we craniums we were talking. so it's not crisis in the ukraine. it's not ukrainian crass crisis, it's russian. the gresh. now it's russian war. there are no break away it, it, bob sent all these with that if that is occupied by russia since

2014. so i think it's really important for us now to use very clear them in knowledge interaction aggression. the so called separate of these are not independent actors. they're fully controlled by a rush. you may call it craftsman talks. there are some collaborate, but again, it's fully, even before the day before yesterday, this part of ukraine, where don't a lot of you buy by us. so low brake brake the way to populate snow. no separate the russian. yeah, alex, let me, let me just jump in there. i mean, as we heard from our reporter that andrew simmons who is not far from you there in ukrainian capital, he was saying that look at ukrainians, a particular people in have been fighting this kind of hybrid war. ukraine's been fighting his high but war with russia for many years now. but surely,

you cannot stand up and win and defeat what is just overpowering military force from the russian military. we're talking about a multi faceted attack air, land, and sea are. this is, this is really ominous, really serious stuff. look, and we knows that for, you know, even the nation would like to be free. you cannot win over this nation. you cannot win by military in these. so 1st, the whole, you know, i think i agree with your previous gifts that the aim is, make ukrainian government collapse. it will not collect. i am, the clinicals is present, but it will not collapse because the country is united now by between assorted this and the position. so yes, there is a balance voted over them with by constitutional, mature,

to introduce emergencies to piece. as far as i understand now, it will be expanded to marshal war city is a z, it is a unit. it was in have a rush and propaganda is styling despite the fact what language we're speaking russian speaking of ukrainians bathrooms as well. okay. and it showed by all the pools that you have in the ukraine. so even if you would like to walk you by, you crave, he will not win the population is totally against. he would collapse in certain point. you know, like crash ok. like to sort of collapse up the intervention that again this little apps as well. let me jump in and get a final thought from you. i mean, we know that you know, the government websites, government agencies have been in a concerted cyber attack from the russians. so how difficult has it been to get

information from outside care about what's happening? i mean, i know, you know, we know we've been talking about eastern ukraine of john bass region and what's happening there. but in terms of you, your friends, your family, how difficult has it been to get information about what's actually happening, given the fact that you've been restricted in terms of internet access and telecommunications at this point in keel, there's no, it is 3 sion, it's still working so our goodies, so we see these working to these provide that information, including the statements of the statements or i miss the zalinski which were done during the night. so now, now the reason that connection and this is good because weekend informs the wall of what's going on, what's going, what, what will happen there? well, we don't know. all right, alexi herana political analysts and professor from care monarch had a me, alexi,

stay safe. thank you very much for your time. now, in a televised address, russian president vladimir putin said the operation is meant to protect civilians and these separate his regions of done exc, and low hands, and told ukrainian forces to retreat. but his away was mimi in las larry dozier, we urge you to lay down arms immediately and go home. i will explain all service men of the ukrainian army who comply with this requirement is can freely leave the area of military actions and returned to the families claims in the when you put it else on your shirt. however, we tried to stop us and further create threats to our country to our people should know that russia's response will be immediate and lead you to such consequences that you have never faced in your history. we are ready for any outcome or this weekend, jonathan cassie's, director of democracy initiatives and a senior fellow with the german marshall fund of the united states to join us live now from washington. d. c. jonathan events moving thick and fast on the ground in

ukraine. we saw at the un earlier on they had that emergency meeting of the security council as that was happening. this miniature operation was unfolding on the ground. and it is ironic, and the timing was significant, wasn't it? but as they were trying to avert war at the un security council, we had russia starting an operation on the ground in ukraine. yeah, but this is, this is typical moved by mister putin and who sought aggression against ukraine. and we saw this build up coming up president me, that it states european allies and others warned about this and, and i, you know, i, i don't think it was unexpected. but when you hear the words coming out of his mouth, it's quite chilling. this is not an operation about the da abbas. this is about ukraine and wanting really in a full scale invasion as foreign minister, columbus said. and the bull and blood will be on the hands of vladimir pooh. this

is his war, his war of aggression and, and jonathan, what can we re been in the military component of putin's plans? we've seen what's been described as shock and all around certain ukrainian cities. kiev car cave were hearing about naval landings in the odessa and then we're hearing about this special operation that putin was talking about earlier on in don bass. what, how you assess imaging opponent of all of that together? i think, you know, a couple of previous guessed to and that because of bass or hel bench and the shock in our plan to try to, you know, to quickly move towards some victory to remove the ukrainian government. there's been all sorts of intelligence revealed about efforts to replace the current government with proxy government to target civil society to target human rights to target. anybody. frankly, it's quite showing you here, mr. newton talk about you know,

demilitarised and notifying ukraine to me. that's just code word for atrocities in human rights violations. so i think there's a lot of a lot more concerned about i'm aware at the beginning of what's taking place right now. but those are really chilling words. and i think we should all be worried about beyond the shock at what comes next in ukraine and the response of the international community, which i hope from the united states and others, will be quick to respond to what's taking place and then to hold mr. newton accountable for what takes place. yeah, we've heard from the un, from breast and baffled is that they will be talking later about a response. let's quickly talk jonathan. if we can about the ukrainian leadership, can they continue to function as a government under this kind of, under the military onslaught, by the russians? if it's just not possible, is it? well, i think that that, that, that they have made plans for this type of situation both in kiev and with

partners. and i think is alexi rod said, you know, may have designs and ukraine, but ukraine does not have designs to be controlled by mr. brewton. and this will really bring ukrainian together further that the country over $40000000.00 that has sought democracy and they've had multiple orange revolution. your may don, this is a strong people, just like alexi said that you know that that will be broken. and most important, i think what you're going to see is the continuity that government i think the bathroom said earlier, that it's likely that they've been moved or will be moved either to western ukraine or to poland. and so the expectation is that the government will remain in place even if it's not in keith. but if it's an exile, it's no plans have been made. i think this is understood and you know mr. pitt may have his mobile now he may have it over the next several weeks with the ukrainians

will regain their nation, their democracy. and we know from past experiences that they are strong, and they have strong support externally. jonathan, just to find a for you, do we believe vladimir putin, when he says he doesn't want to invade ukrainian territory, but yet he supports the independence and made that declaration a few days ago about the hands of don. yet in the don bath region, do we believe him when he says he doesn't want to take ukrainian territory? i mean, this guy constantly lies, and the actions today reports in mario pull reports in odessa bombing of even his own words. i don't think we should spend a lot of time speculating about the da boss. he already started a war there that has led to close to 14000 new prayer radians being killed over 8 years ago he illegally and ex crimea. so this guy just has a track record not only here but elsewhere in georgia, moldova, and globally,

carry out these types of actions. how can you believe a word? this guy says, i don't think that we should spend a lot of time. i think president by it was right, really look at, look at his actions, not his words and jackson say it look like a guy is invading another country in a group, a country that, that was seeking war. and so this is something that's been imposed by mr. jonathan cats really good to get your thoughts. thank you very much indeed for talking to us . well, let's just take a quick breath if we can, because the thought of the russian military operation coincided with an emergency meeting of the un security council in new york and became a heated session ukraine's and baffled to the un told his russian counterpart he should step down as chair, relinquish your duties, the chair co putin call a roof to stop aggression. and i welcome the decision of some members of this council to meet as soon as possible to consider the necessary

decision. it would condemn the aggression that you launch on my people. there is no purgatory for war criminals. they go straight to hell, and that's enough. when more now on the sanctions imposed on russia, chris wafer is chief executive officer of macro advise raised chic consultancy focused on russia and eurasia. he joins us live now from moscow. chris, a great to have you with us. so listen, we'll talk about sanction a 2nd. let me just get your response. when i know you've lived and worked in moscow for many, many years, and what's your response to the events unfolding on the ground today? i think the 1st thing is prize. how quickly everything is moving a we are, you know, we, when we had the, the denouncement on the monday or from president at russia would recognize the to republic. cindy, p r, and l p r i, there was a sense that, you know, this was kind of a, you know, an escalation for sure, but text and next,

lose role play out over the next couple weeks rather than the next couple of days. no, it's every morning here in mazda and it's, we haven't yet seen kind of any sort of a public reaction or even much more reaction from officials. i think people are somewhat shocked to hear this news as quickly as it's come and will probably take some time to absorb before we start to hear some feedback kristen commentary. but ah, clearly this is a something that, that you almost like the worst case scenario on the scale of vents. we were looking for a, as you say, the kinetics happened. all right, quickly let me just quick, then touch on the issue of sanctions christ, cuz i know that's what you're on to talk about. i'm an analyst already calling these sanctions on the u. s. the u. k. europe against russia, or rather tepid a, but have a been received there in moscow and you know, what do they mean? well the a year. yup. the rights did to sanctions and announced this week in response to the recognition of the 2 republic. sir ret are inconsequential and russian economy is

certainly very well placed, smokes are of them. and really our analysis is this. the sanctions now so far would have a 0, almost 0 impact. but, but that's now kind of almost already history because the u. s. a. europe are also made very clear to have russia made any additional moves like beyond the recognition of the 2 republics. then the dis, sanctions would be quickly wrapped his up to the much more severe category unless you need. however, what we're now looking at, because the, the actions that we are now looking at on the grounding crane ah, do justify moving into the more severe sanctions category. and i think this is what we're going to hear later today from washington and, and from europe. and from and over the next couple of days. so really there for the sanctions. we've had nance this week are a, you know, are kind of almost like irrelevant. we're now looking at what will be these next sanctions response and how damaging that would be for the russian economy for different sectors that the roof. dear customer does jump in there. i mean,

what about fear is within the russian business community? because there is considerable western involvement in business in russia. is that not in jeopardy? do you think? yes, i think the short answer is it certainly is an anal, obviously a lot was penned on whether or not the, the actions were know, seeing our quick here are some sort of shock and oh, and then what can we could remember we had just before in august in 2008 with which george diamond circumstances were quite different. the scale is different than the abbey. even the proximity in europe is quite different. but at that time, russia did move in to georgia, did have a couple of days, were attacked and she targets and then went through to the separatist region and therefore did the same impact was rather limited. it'll be different this time for sure, and more severe. i think that this morning there will be a considerable amount of concern, but not just amongst foreign business managers, investors rush, but also amongst russian companies. because russian companies of course,

need access to global markets to need access to work with foreign companies. and based on what was, has been said in the last couple of weeks in washington in europe. then clearly that axis is now at least at risk. so i think they'll be a considerable amount of a fear amongst the business community, whether you're foreign and russia to day, and it will, will certainly be very worry for the next few days to see what happens next. but there will be a ratcheting up of sanctions that i think there can be no doubt about. we just have to see him severe as his yet. but chris is always good to get your thoughts, you know, as a western living and working in moscow, you've been, as i said, for many years, what a little the, what is a lot of its main for ordinary russians on the street? how worried a vague about what they're seeing 1st in terms of the military action but, but, but also in terms of their finances, of the economics of all of it's a weakening ruble, rising inflation. what, what's that, what's their position on this yet? loved it doesn't really good question because the, you know, it's, it's one to seems that we've been following for

a long time. the changing demographics. russian, people today are quite difference to, you know, russian people at the end of the soviet union. back then people would have accepted anything to the government date and, and the consequences. but today people are different and they have different a kind of objectives to be want to travel. they run that lifestyle the want, better job security. they want a more stable economy and as a growing part of the population. so i think, but that with president putin has now done is not just risky in terms of g of politics. and in terms of a western reaction, when it is all so risky, in terms of domestic politics, slowing active artist population will not sort of be easily accept the consequences for them that will now come from this action. as you say, we're already seeing that the weak rubel at the, at the air you opening this morning. that will have consequences in terms of inflation and lifestyle, but also potentially in impact and whether people can travel. you know, some of the worst case sanctions talked about people that might not be able to use

their russian bank cards and h, e, m, 's abroad. all of these are potential consequences. and if that happens, there will be a domestic public reaction not immediately, but it will start to change that dynamic in russia. yeah, chris, as a final thought to you, events happening really quickly now, but i mean, russia has been anticipating as you were saying, west and sanctions for some time, but been stop putting huge financial reserves. how worried will vladimir putin be about further painful sanctions, which we know are coming now that military action has started. but like russia being cut off from international banking system and may be personal sanctions on putin himself, how word will he be? will lead to sidney? they won't be worried about sanctions underneath the so called the liter putting the crown the near future themselves. who did that would, would matter. because clearly he's, he just traveling to nastier and, and see at the unit oligarchy of were options. ha, in and outside russia. but so for the moments to clearly are not worried about any

kind of distress and economies say, a low level of debt, i level of national reserves and, and, and therefore you're not going to have the financial crisis that such as an even happened previously. they have time and they have good resources to ride does out one assumes, therefore, their thinking is that that there will be some sort of a resolution that the worst case scenario could be avoided and can kind of get back on track in a few months time and of course, the ace that russia has is that if russia is cut off from that, no banking system, then the question is whether the rest of the world will be able to pay for the significant amount of energy and material resources that russian exports. not just to europe, to the u. s. and other countries. so to that extent, you know, they have to feel that, that they might avoid the worst case sanctions because there will be such a negative contagion and arrested world.