surely beneficial, especially trade in the type of commodities that the world's in europe are in particular bias from russia. money transfer systems other than swift are in place, but aren't as efficient when iran was blocked in 2014, it lost 30 percent of its foreign trade. it's still not clear when one of the most powerful financial penalties to be impose on russian financial institutions will be implemented. and russia is yet to respond. so to hide it, al jazeera. ah, this is al jazeera, these are the main development so far move. russia has stepped up its military advance as its troops answer ukraine. second, bigger city of kalki on day 4 of its land, air, and sea invasion. heavy fighting has been taking place on the streets with

civilians was not to go out. the crane has rejected the russian offer for talks and bella roofs saying it was complicit, saying it was the staging ground for the invasion. the president vladimir zalinski says he wants to talk, but only at a neutral venue. yes, miss leslie, do your duty nibbler again? if you didn't have his aggressive actions from your territory, you could have talked in minsk in your town. this is the truth. that's the situation to taught me neighbors. and now you have made your choice. that was, depends on you. that's why now you're seeing no to minsk other places could be a springboard for talks, has got to want to talk, who want to meet to end this war? just brett, slobber, budapest should. we have suggested to the russians or any other place. the accepted russian forces of attacks, oil and gas facilities, sparking huge explosions. troops are trying to take over the assume keep air base south west of the capital, kia, an oil depot there is on fire after being hit by a russian missile. lot of putin as again taken to the airwaves,

praising the efforts of his troops. as please let them give a pe special tribute to those heroically performing their military juicy during the special operation to provide assistance to the people's republic of dawn. best these days. i wish luck, success, and all the best for you and your close ones. western nations are uniting to target the russian economy. certain russian banks are we borrowed from the international finance system, is called the swift system. they will be prevented from carrying out transactions on the messaging system that is swift. worldwide. the u. n. refugee agency says 368000 people have fled ukraine, more than 100, thousands of headed to neighboring. poland also is expecting up to 5000000 people to arrive on the coming weeks. those are your headlines. the news continues here, after inside story will keep you all across the developments out of the crane. when we come back, we'll see you soon. on counting the cost, argentina turns to the only method arresting the dumpster from really all that hard

to finance and stability pumping passion to fossil fuels. will bank ever quit bundling policing muscles and the poor thirsty town? how a farm is happening to water shortage? counting the cost on al jazeera, russia invade ukraine, and the response from the rest of the world, sanctions and condemnation ukraine's president says that's not good enough. so what can be done to stop this war? this is inside story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm hammer, jim, job rushes, invasion of ukraine is the biggest threat to peace in europe since world war 2. but the international response so far has been called weak and ineffective. at the

united nations security council, permanent member, russia used its veto to block a move against the invasion india, the united arab emirates and china, abstained russia, which currently holds the councils. rotating presidency says the resolution was imbalanced for not mentioning the ukrainian government's own attacks on the don boss, regions blue that is just when you stop by giving it to the british, we want to thank those who did not support this draft. i will not respond to those who accuse the russian federation of abusing the right to veto. one of the main reasons for our negative vote is not what is included in the draft, but what is left out, how we can trust you, how we can trust your shoes. you have no idea what is on the mind to feel president . your boards have less value that than a hole in the new york pretzel. you can the tell this resolution, but you cannot veto our voices. you cannot be tell the truth.

you cannot veto our principles. you cannot detail the ukranian people, the u. s. and the european union are preparing sanctions directly targeting rushes, president and foreign minister. the u says it intends to freeze their assets abroad . the block had already announced measures targeting 70 percent of russia's banking system, and it expects to decide soon on whether to exclude the country from swift, a global system for financial transactions. former russian president dmitri madrid have responded by saying moscow doesn't really need diplomatic ties with the west ukraine's president said, western allies aren't doing enough to stop the war, followed amir zalinski wants to see more demonstrations within russia. and across the world basilica in every country of the world in every country of europe, take the streets and demands, pays for europe and peace for ukraine demand and end to this war. this is our right,

this is your rise. when bombs are falling in cave. this is not only in ukraine, it's in europe. when rockets are killing our people, it's death the every one for every european demand, more protection for europe, more protection for ukraine as part of a democratic world. ah. all right, let's bring in our panel in leave. in western ukraine, michael bus r q, a senior fellow at the atlanta council, and a former spokesperson for the organization for security and cooperation in europe. in moscow, natalia pillow, vena a political activist and british russian. playwright and in alexandria, virginia. p. j. crowley, a former us assistant secretary of state, a warm welcome to you all and thank you so much for joining us today. on inside story, michael, let me start with you. you are currently in levine. i want to ask you 1st how

things are there right now. what are you seeing and what are you hearing? sure, thanks for having me. well, just before we went on air here, air raid sirens were blurring outside with announcements for everyone to shelter in place and so on. that started at 6 am this morning and is repeating intermittently, almost to the point where people don't know what to do outside on the streets. com, but a lot of shops closed pharmacies, that sort of thing. i'm saying it's it's heartbreaking to see, but you're seeing a lot of families couples, that sort of thing with suitcases, getting ready to go. i think some of them don't even know where they're going to go, because it's so difficult to move around. we're hearing of lineups or cues rather, to the polish border of several, several hours. so most of the diplomats, we here are gone. i heard this morning that diplomats from some of the neighboring baltic nation chapter, part of that was about 2 days after the canadian that and then one last thing we're saying which is relatively new, is new anxiety from possible up

a tours. you see more police military types going around and checking papers on a couple of cases taking people away. so that's, that's quite tech concerning. if indeed those types of people are here. now p j. we know that sadly, all the various rounds of diplomacy leading up to this fail to bring about a diplomatic solution. do you believe that going forward? there is a window that would exist for potential diplomatic activity. or i think that once you unleash a major military, a gravitational force, you know, takes over the military that we see coming from bella roost, crimea, and russia will probably, you know, proceed forward until either it achieves its initial objective. one would assume

that the seizure of the government and keith or it meets unexpected resistance. you know, i think there are clearly will be a window that develops where double diplomacy can reengage. but i think that window is some time off natalia. we've heard that russian officials are signaling a willingness to hold diplomatic talks. but do we know under what conditions the kremlin would consider any kind of negotiation? well i know where putting puts in, as initially come from what he has proposed to the west in terms of securing russian borders in terms of so closeness to the russian order to create that has never been really properly considered. i don't believe there will. there would you know that this point did happen?

i don't really see any results. so when you go station, i think that is pretty much off the table at this point on both sides. so i think there are, there may be talk, you know, common servicing once in a while, that something along those lines is possible. honestly, very few people at this point have based on that russian, michael from your vantage point, do you believe that there are any diplomatic strategies that could be employed to try and bring about some kind of a solution, or is it just too late? sadly no, and it is too late. i was saying for the past weeks that the diplomatic toolbox was empty. there was a lot of long table or shuttle diplomacy going on, but it didn't seem to move put in. i think that red line was trying very, very clearly when putting gave very bizarre long speech the black hurdling speech about, you know, how he sees ukraine is a failed state. how he wants to essentially redraw that security map of europe. so

i think that the west now belatedly realize is that they're trying to make up with new offers, of weaponry and money. but, you know, given the current situation on your correspondence today really outlined it very starkly. is that i thought, you know, i put in further isolates ukraine, militarily, surround city, there's going to be very difficult to go get those re supplies to the front line to the operational lines. so, and even in a best case scenario, i know this from working several emergencies in the humanity or in a field. it's once a disaster happens, it's very difficult for entities to absorb new funding or new supplies unless you have a really good strategy. so many, many complex parts to a story that doesn't look like it went very well. p j. let me get your point of view on this. the latest rounds of sanctions that have been announced against

russia against president putin, against foreign minister lab. rob are these enough or also is this too little too late? i think it's important to impose a cost on russia, you know, for what it is doing in ukraine. invading a sovereign country, out of the, the whims and fears of a despotic leader. so that is important. it's not to deter russia point a, in a sense, you know, these kinds of actions, 1st and foremost, are to your reassure, you know, nato allies, that, you know, there, there is a cost to pay for these. and then, you know, secondly to the, to maintain the unity, the alliance. and as michael was alluding to, to the extent that the outside world can, you know, to try to help us, you know,

ukraine, your resistance survive by a variety of means economic, military and political natalia. is there significant opposition in russia to president putin's ukraine strategy? right now, we know that there have been protests. we know that many people were arrested for protesting. i mean, have you been out there protesting a, do you think there will be more protests and, and does any of this worry president put well, i went out wrapped in the ukraine flag yesterday, and i was not to me, but i was questioned by the police on a number of occasions they took my i, i fell down. i will go out tomorrow for sure. it is likely that me and my colleagues will be to say tomorrow because that's, that's the reaction that at this point is very harsh. of anyone who goes out there to protest the gate before that happened this year and probably not the other

states to deal with. and this is, you know, this had become a norm years. very few that were allowed to happen without detention. so, you know, the opposition has been large the crush. however, we are very much together now and i'm sure outside our circles, a lot of people are told by what's going on. there is a certain percentage. i don't know, i would say what it is of people in russia will do only soul in listen to rush propaganda. believe everything. the thing is that there is no war, the military operation liberating ukraine. but i don't know how many of those people with this, but i know they do this fortunately. but there we hope that there will be a push that coming soon from a lot of russian people. and this is not just because they don't agree with the,

with the military actions in war, 80 cray. it's also the economic nation that will follow and, and very much of the significant impact that we're gonna going to see happening. russia as a result of this tragedy, michael, i saw you nodding along to some of what natalia was saying there. so i want to give you the opportunity to jump in if you'd like. but i also want to ask you, if you know from your vantage point, if you think that the fact that there have been protests in russia even at this early stage, if that is something that is worrying to president putin. yeah, well we'd like to think that it is, but as we saw in belarus and you know, with a never enough protest, they were crushed very, very harshly. look, i think in terms of conflicting pain on the circle around mr. put in and i mr. put in itself, i and other experts of the atlantic council have said that what needs to be done is

to make a russian oligarch outside the russian borders. feel worthless that they will be persona non grata or subject to even arrest the moment they step outside russia. so no more trips on their expensive yards to prioritize to the french riviera to miami, new york, whatever that is finished. and they have to understand that on saturday today, a russian ship was a pet report to be seized by french authorities and the ownership connection with their was made with an associate of put and that type of stuff that needs to happen . one more thought on that, i think sadly, like we've seen and other, the it or the war or conflict, if you will, is that the ordinary person is actually going to feel the pain, whether it's higher prices for food or inability to travel. that sort of thing, but i, i cannot help but think that western strategists are thinking maybe that is one way a strategy is to make it so kind of vast the sanction that the russian people will

say we're fed up you know, we're cluster phobic. we feel isolated and an uprising could happen that way, but i believe it's going to what the top is that could be quite some ways off p j also. so you're reacting to something what michael was saying there's i want to, i want to give you the chance to, to jump in. but, but i also want to ask you when it comes to all of the diplomacy that led up to this. did diplomat at least western diplomats grossly underestimate what president putin would ultimately do? i actually, i don't think so by demonstration. had a very public strategy, much of what it said in the build up of russian forces. and the potential for the kind of invasion we're seeing has actually occurred. it's not something that i've, i've seen and in my, you know, decades a long career of so, so no,

i don't think it was underestimated. i do think that we have to kind of step back and understand that. yes, we're in the middle of a, a heightening crisis. but, but this is a war that has been going on for at least 8 years. you know, where, when the young, your cold, which government fell in 2014. putin has been, you know, maneuvering, building up, the ability to try to re impose a such an order in ukraine that he could control. so. so if, if you want to talk about, you know, perhaps underestimating what future was capable of doing. probably that certainly that underestimation occurred in 2014, 2015 far more than it did in 20212020 true natalia. what do you, what do you think the western diplomats who are involved in trying to avert this

invasion? do you think that they were out of their depths? did they fail to grasped the psychology of president putin and what he was willing to do? well, i think the, the west underestimate wisconsin for, for a very long time. now i myself have conversation that the state department of washington 10 years ago. and i said look, he's gonna show his true colors sooner or later. everyone will suffer and they will respond. well, no, we don't see that happening. he. he will stay within the borders at the very beginning to do anything. yes, you will request his own people and the opposition to bad, you know, but he's not going to go much further than that. that was real conversation i had 10 years ago. now look what we have, right? so there's a huge underestimation off. unfortunately, we the opposition kind of so this going to be saying that,

but it's true and you know, happened what we kind of did for see from it here. now unfortunately, the weren't really heard probably within russia or beyond russian orders. so now you know, now it's too late. you know, we have this monster. how do we deal with this monster with our? i hope i will have to come up with something, but that is what the world is wrecking brain to us, to try and figure out and remains to be seen what, what will come to what solution is possible. michael, you know, in former russian, president mc viet of has said that russia doesn't really need diplomatic ties with the west. is that really the case? i mean, is president putin so insulated right now with that? it doesn't matter to him if diplomatic ties exist going forward or not. oh yeah, there's a question. remember, after the legal annexation of crimea,

russia was booted out of the wealthy club of nation. 67. so then a couple of years after that i believe it was actually rather than not that i was hearing that he's not even interested in rejoining the club. so i see, i think we're seeing a lot of disengagement from russia. look, i think it was much better than south. i said, well that's great. we won't have to, you know, adhered to human rights protocols. we won't have 2 arms. agreements are out the window even, you know, climate agreement, they will, they're isolation will further lead them. i believe into a tighter embrace for china, this has been happening over time as you know and let there be no doubt here whatsoever is their chinese are watching this very, very carefully. because the lessons learned out of this will help them design their eventual takeover of taiwan. it's this thing has enormous, enormous consequences that will go on for years. it's sunday chill down my back to

say this, but i don't think the world will be the same ever again. the way we know attendance the very day i think and p j on michael was just talking there about the fact that he believes china will be watching this very closely. how much concern is there among members of the biden administration as to what comes next as to how much us credibility is on the line as to what impact this will have when it comes to future diplomacy? when it comes to dealing with other autocratic leaders and states, how much does this worry them? well, i think it, it is not only norm shattering but system shattering. we, this is the beginning of a, a new era in international relations. and we're going to have to make some adjustments. you know, i think, you know,

to natalia's point of putin is now completely on mast. you know, so the 1st challenges to is what we do, you know, outside of the borders of ukraine. you know, for example, despite what happened to 2014 oil and gas imports from russia actually increased over the last several years, rather than decreased. you know, so to the extent that russia does have leverage over the international system because of its export of oil, gas and other minerals, it is vitally important for the west to find ways to, to alleviate that leverage that, that putin has. i think it's going to be critically important. michael's reference to, to china and taiwan is spot on. and, and it is, it is, i think going to be a major initiative to try to drive

a wedge between russia and china. and there's an opportunity to do that. you know, china speaks all the time about the sanctity of state sovereignty. and yet there are obviously fudging, you know, what is happening in ukraine. i think that will be important for united states and others to, to drive home diseases paying. you know, there's no free lunch here if you, if you side with put in there, we're going to be eventually the consequences to you as well. natalia, is there any thing that would make president putin want to back down at this stage? i don't see what that could be. i mean the guy has gone mad not even within the last couple of months. but while i'm before that i don't know, no buttons for a 2nd, probably about, you know, basically hitting at the possibility of using clear power of russia. when he said

that we, as the russians will go to heaven and everyone else is just dialing dos. i don't know if you ever heard of best, but you can google it. it's out there. it is, his actual phrase publicly and you know it. so with that kind of person who has already gone this far and we, we now know that there was no on the route to stop, to kind of alter this decision making process to, to influence him. there is noah. so at this point, i don't know what can, what can happen to make that. i mean, the dias, his mom. that if you're in the power for that long and you have that much of an echo as he does, you know, it's, it is, it's a recipe book. so, you know, let's just grade, survive this, and there is no war. then we can talk with michael based on what

you are observing on the ground there in levine and also from what you're observing about, what's going on geopolitically right now. just how dangerous a moment do we find ourselves in incredibly dangerous. and again, being on the ground here and you know, i've been with cave before here and then now here in the wheel, it's just absolutely heartbreaking to see what's happening to nuclear families here, small businesses. so society, you know, it's really tough on people here and, you know, i think what could be a difference here from other complex, you know, that could seem very far away, you know, in africa, middle east or whatever. i mean, these are europeans where thing being killed. one more quick point if i can. i think what the west stuart, urgently and i think you're, well there previous that got to look alert to this is that the united states is going to have to lead. i think the effort to lessen is dependent on oil and gas

from russia. and unfortunately, one of the great decisions were not great, but perhaps both decision biden is going to have to take very soon is to open up fracking again. that sort of thing. not, not necessarily environmentally friendly practices. in order to achieve the goal. we're going to pay a price for that as well, in terms of perhaps a more dirty or environment and things like that. but that leverage to redo thought leverage. russia has over the rest of the world and over europe especially is very, very important. the discussion has given us a lot to think about, but unfortunately we have run out of time. so we're going to have to leave it there . thank you so much to all of our guess michael bus or q natalia. paula vina and p . j. crowley, and thank you to for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com, and for further discussion, go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. our handle is at a inside story for me, how much of a room and a whole team here,

bye for now, the talk to al jazeera, we also do you believe that the threat of an invasion of ukraine is currently the biggest threat to international peace and security we listen, we are focusing so much on the humanitarian crisis that we forget the long term development we meet with global news makers. i'm talk about the stool restock matter on al jazeera in a notorious waterside community. like kings and thugs, room, one fietta directive inches to stage a play that called me miss is to empower the women that whole months sitting right there with and we define the status in society, missus and nigeria as women walk um,

would that witness on al jazeera a reporters retreat in a brutal civil war. if a commodore hadn't been there, the israel invasion would not have been so well reported. the commodore had become journalistic center. you could be in a safe enclave and then you went out into civil war. i started off leaving this of the grand suite of the commodore hotel. the next room i was in was underground, the tiny prison. so as a hostage, they ruge the commodore wall hotels on al jazeera. this once feared warlord during labourers decade long civil war says he's now fighting a drug epidemic. the work that the former warlord joshua boy, he has done with street children, has attracted their helpless sentiment. b as protected in effect from public prosecution. despite the recommendation is made by the truth and reconciliation commission for this former warlord, liberia has become the frontline of

a drug war. it cannot afford to lose. he says it's a battle he will fight out of responsibility and killed for his past crimes. and for his country, ah, with street fighting in car cave off to russian troops enter ukraine's 2nd largest city. ah. blind has him secret. this is al jazeera without continuing coverage of the conflict and ukraine. ukraine's leader will admit, zaleski says, his country is ready for talks with russia, but not in belarus. jemma chancellor. allah schultz pledges.