in russia, in the work of playoff, mostly poland, sweden, and typically they refused it. they said that they refuse to play russia in the work, qualify playoff next month. so that's forced the issue with the co, but it's been quite a turnaround because sleeper were with the slowest of the gold sports organizations to, to take the stand against russia version of ukraine. ah, this is al jazeera, these are the top stories. russia's drive towards ukraine's capital is now entering a 6th day. we've been getting reports. the dozens of people have been killed and injured in the 2nd largest city hockey eve. russian forces are accused of using cluster bombs, which are banned in more than a 100 countries. ukrainian president vladimir zalinski is calling for a no fly zone to stop moscow's bombardment. or he's you silly? sure. would you just look on the la hockey. russian forces, severely shelled car keys or houses were destroyed. a lot of infrastructure was

destroyed. video has proven that the target people's buildings advocates, a war crime that should be investigated and no one will ever forgive you for targeting civilians, ballistic missiles, artillery. this war has to be stopped immediately. i suggest, and i believe that the sky needs to be close to russia, mythical fleet never by the international criminal court has to investigate russia's invasion of ukraine. it says there is reason to believe that war crimes have been committed. negotiations between the 2 countries have taken place at the bathroom border on monday, but no agreement has been reached and comes as a huge russian convoy advances on cave satellite images show hundreds of armored vehicles, tanks, artillery, and support vehicles. just 20 kilometers from the center of the capitol. turkey is activating a 90 year old international treaty to prevent warships from passing through to key waterways. the 1936 montoya convention gives it authority to close the darnell and

boss for the straits in times of war. president richard ty, about one that says the decision could prevent the crisis from escalating several african countries including nigeria and south africa. say they're trying to get their citizens out of ukraine. it comes after several of the nationals accused ukrainian gods of discrimination as they tried to cross the border. but he was posted in social media show black people being thrown off or prevented from boarding trains and buses headed to the border with poland. more european countries are sending 80 ukraine, the italian red cross is preparing trucks of food medicines and blankets. and italian governments allocated a $122000000.00 to help those fleeing the fighting. those are the headlines. these continues here on al jazeera. after inside story. good bye. hesitant burton has launched an attack on ukraine. how will the world react to his

latest new and what impact with his hop on the people who claim and russia as events unfold? see with us for the latest news and analysis for moscow on al jazeera russians are paying a price for the invasion of ukraine's basic goods are becoming more expensive. the value of the ruble falls and economic sanctions start to fight. but could the rest of the world be affected as well as his insights door? ah hello, welcome to the program, i'm nick clark. so russia's invasion of ukraine has triggered some of the most severe sanctions ever from the west. that designed to hurt russia's economy and deprived president vladimir putin of money to pay for the war. the currency,

the rubel, has fallen by a 3rd against the us dollar. some russian banks have been banned from the swift messaging system use for international transactions. the united states, the european union and their allies, are blocking access to much of the countries, $640000000000.00 in foreign cash reserves. rushes at central bank is trying to limit the fall out by raising interest rates to 20 percent. the crime in insists the country will ride out the pain with the fear has caused a run on the banks. this thursday, everyone has been running between 80 and to redraw cash, so on gets lucky. others not so lucky, but not the good but so it's not clear hub, we'll be buying groceries and other stuff. if swift is turned off, all foreign goods are paid for by card. how will we purchase and i work in a department store, how will they buy clothes from italy? i wonder, i don't know how other areas will be affected. everything is working in russia,

but there could be some shortages more num. yeah. and then you can just won't affect me at all because i'm not too rich, i'm an average or no, it will affect our country, i think. but we will overcome it all when, of course, the sanctions could have an impact outside of russia as well. the world's 11th biggest economy is a major exporter of fuel and food. the war could push out prices globally. let's take a closer look. russia produces 10 percent of the world's oil. there's the wes warned of russian invasion back in november. prices were nearly $85.00 a barrel. now there are more than $100.00 a barrel and rising. moscow supplies 40 percent of europe's natural gas prices on the continent have increased by 3rd since thursday. when the invasion began. russia is the world's largest weights exporter prices last year were already 31 percent higher than in 2020 that's according to the us food and agriculture agency economists fair. they could climb even higher.

ah, all. busy right, let's spring in august in moscow we have a pedal f l greenhouse, the defense of military analyst and shanghai in china, dunwar and chief economists at the hank same bank, china and in london, gibbon santa, who is an economist at kings college london. welcome all of you to the program. first off, i just want to focus on the situation within russia. for now we'll look at the global situation in a few minutes, but pavel pebbles halligan ha, flooded me. a putin says he's indifferent to sanctions. is that true? do you think while russia was preparing, obviously that there can be further sanctions? actually, russia has been under sanctions for ready, 8 years since for keen and moral are coming. and so there were reserves made of different things, of chips and components to make planes and other materials. and of course,

russia with the price of oil being high and the price of natural gas to made large hard currency reserves. and it was boy, that russia could, the width or the storm that sanctions will have some effect further on, but not the mediate. it turns out different way of the west greed very promptly to freeze the assets of the central bank. and that was a shock. and awe event, right. so what, what is the, what implications of that? because those hard currency reserves you talked about been pretty much half of them . they say he loses access to much of the $640000000000.00. that was there. what's gonna be the i would not on with that belongs to the central bank as reserve itself, the sovereign fund, which is under the custodians ship of the central bank. so the, and that's also harton and foreign currency. so that means the central bank does not have the capability to support the rouble by using those reserves. they have

been frozen. and actually there's reports that not only in euro's dollars, sterling and apparently yen, actually switzerland, the usual country pathways. also looking into freezing russian acids, so it would be the frank to, that's not, that's not good at all. so today, moscow, there was panic in the city. the per ad, the in rural bo was in free fall. the central bank moved them and somewhat managed to stabilize the situation. okay. will they come into the situation with their healthcare either way, just just a 2nd pebble at, sorry to interrupt. i want to move on. we'll come back in a 2nd about what's happening on the streets at dan, dan wang at outside of china. have you been surprised by the, the level of sanctions finally being imposed now on russia? i'm actually not as surprised gathering all the political signals in the market from europe in the us. it seems that will happen that way. the swift is used and the my line of business is considered as a nuclear option in

a financial world. but energy products are still an exemption, so i just don't think the pain would be big enough to deter russia yet there has to be more of a. busy consistent behavior in alliance between western countries in order to cause the real damage they want to see driven signed. what do you think? do you think the needs to be more effort to, to up the level of sanctioning going on? i should be. sanctions are clear, punitive and overwhelming. we should be clear that as of this morning, the russian economy is in crisis. the rubel is crushing, inflation will increased. bank crosby are also seeing russia is fundamentally much poorer this morning than it was yesterday. these factors will have a huge damaging of that. and one of the ironies of course of this is because to, to spend to 2014 insulating the russian economy from his western neighbors by

selling very little debt abroad by restricting import by trying to build that reserve. it also easy, such as they're going to have relatively less effect on western economies. putin gamble everything on this cart of invading ukraine. he thought he had a war chest ready. it's clear that is no longer the case. he went all laid and it looks like he's about to lose very badly. right. so puzzle the rubel as you were just saying, the rubel has bombed home and now and the impact that that is going to have in the lives of the men and women on the street. what will it due to the cost of living for the 145000000 people in russia? well, as a central bank right now today, stepped in, they managed to stabilize the situation or even their rebounds of the robo. but the medicine is very, very big care. they have written the, their basic landing rate from 9 and a half percent to 2020 percent means that the russian industry is

going to tank normal industry kind of work at such a rate only. i don't know. speaker, this trading in black market can. that means there's going to be or recession in russia. they're going to be a severe economic recession, and that's going to take the population very seriously. they're going to be shortages because they're going to be a problem with imports. and not only because of money, because russia is still showing oil and getting some money, but there's not frozen. but there's logistical problem for just the company. they're refusing to bring containers to russia and will be won't having bananas. but we're also having as a pre courses to make generic maxims and everything is going to go, and that's going to be this. all of it in some is going to affect very bad with the internal political situation. there's going to be serious discontent. and the

coming months and that, coupled with the war that seems not very popular and not very successful, right? i was going to come here. what do you think? what cents are you getting from people that people, you know, the people you talk to in the shops and so forth about what's going on and what happened the result of these sanctions, ultimately, as a result of a lot of pieces, decision to invade low. i'm and right now people are in shock because they're gadgets working. this is not working. so people are trying to get something by something do something or just simply sit and frustration because they don't, their wires are kind of crumbling about them. moscow like we're traveling a lot abroad now there's also no rush and plains around anywhere. the rush in 5 minutes to couldn't go to geneva and another, another people, ordinary people also can go anywhere. so this is

a kind of very serious frustration. there is some anti war movement, it's not yet very big, but there is there. and that's also eating into the turn, no political stability, if these things right now, it's not yet the political problem for the kremlin, but it can soon become with the equity because all of these things will be adding up. right? and people are, of course, frustrated asking me questions, what comes next and i don't have any good news for them. it's going to be much worse. given sandra and london, to what extent can, can russia fight back? because we've heard in the last few hours, russia closing a space of 36 countries, and that's going to have repercussions across the world's net. it will, to the real damaging weapon that russia has. of course, is, as you mentioned, a huge amount of energy export. the 2nd largest producer of natural gas have in london, 40 percent of our electricity comes from energy. we are much of the gas in the

european union as well does come from russia. but whilst it could try to restrict as exports, we should remember the russia or cities to export it ordered have dollars come into the country and not see. the rubel crash further beads, those dollars rushes economic sanctions back to the to the western world. if you like outside of energy and we are very limited, even with energy and we, it's very difficult to see how effectively they could deploy it, give it how badly they need at this point in time, us dollars, it doesn't look like the russian economy or russian government here had a huge amount of maneuver by which to strike back at western nations. yes, indeed, just as we emerged from the panoramic crisis, we walk straight into this kind of storm cloud of water. we done and wang in shanghai with your finances hassle. and if you like, how far reaching do you think the consequences of russia's invasion of ukraine will

be for the world? and indeed for soul, wherever we may live? well, i think for kind of, for country like ukraine, it's economy probably will have to be put back by at least 5 years just due to this war. but for the rest of the world. unfortunately, i think the economic impact will be quite drastic in the beginning, but quickly fade off. right now we see a lot of adjustment in the stock market and people are rushing to to say process. but judging by historical experience, say, the period after the gulf war period, after 911, the markets will return to normal, usually between one to one to 6 months. and right now we see actually many countries see more opportunities to strengthen their bond with russia, including china. so it's not the case for like iran or cuba that they're very isolated from the rest of the world. russia still has friends and allies from other

possible, but if you know, we've been talking about supply russia, the biggest supplier waste in the world, if that has is hit badly. yeah, it's going to affect the basic basic commodity of bread, isn't it? and that is going to have repercussions around the world. it's not something that's just going to, you know, vap rate once the invasion stops, or they come to some sort of agreement. if they do this, this might drag on for, for months. while food security is certainly a prime concern, but the impact again is quite uneven. for countries in middle east and north africa, they depend more heavily on russian and ukraine. supply is specially weed and reap seats. so we will see some disproportionate impact for the poor people in those country. if you look at country like turkey, the inflation pressure is already very high. and i just can see that more people would have to suffer from high living costs in a month to come driven. what do you think? what do you have? how do you think the sanctions on russia will reverberate across the,

the world global economy? really for the, for the, for the amount of women on the street from, you know, from kenya to london. so yes, it's you, to whatever extent people are exposed to russian financial assets, we are going to see some kind of repercussion. you see in stock market down slightly this morning. similarly, the same is true of russia decides to offload it's dollars denominated debt for example. but the most of the quest is really about to what extent energy prices is . what is food prices are effected? got what matters the people on the street now we had a threat for method as a few days ago said that he would cause the price of gas to increase by more than double in the u. k. that would be another increase of energy prices about 1000 pounds, to the average family, and other 3 points on inflation. at the same time we're seeing across the c d to be inflation spiking at livingston. it's all inside the u. k. we see the biggest fall

we'll see this year working house all the biggest fall in after tax income for 30 years. it was seen as pressure, of course, everywhere. the real question here is what happens? those energy exports, what happens, those food exports, pebble, what do you think of that threat from vivid up to put it, squeeze on the gas flow and push up the price? is that something that you will see come into play, were actually, i don't know. today their president put in a gram one hand, a meeting on the sanctions and rush and response. the results are not yet known. this is may be a possibility. but again, of course, that that is a dangerous weapon, because if russia begins to leave the gas supplies, the west will begin to squeeze vast from. and that a gas from has assets in the west, even have natural gas in western europe and in central europe. and under ground

facilities, which could be confiscated, they have no, there's cutting off supply of oil and gas was very dangerous weapon. and once i could, there's going to be a lot of consideration before using that. of course, the 1st reaction, but president bush was actually threaten brandish the nuclear weapon the big and he announced the kind of high out that the level of earned readiness. i mean the equivalent of the american deaf com has been lifted. and so a basically rushes saying, if you use both sanctions and last week and may be begin to use nukes, actually it's possible that the nuclear weapon could be exploded somewhere in the safe or a place like that over the caesar empty. see somewhere in the north sea, in the,

in our region see, or the atlantic, or it won't cause any harm as a demonstration of russian determination. because such things have been kind of proposed than oh, tested without explosion. of course, in russian military exercises beginning from the ninety's, it's called the escalation through nuclear escalation and demonstrate of nuclear attack. that sounds like a really good to me till dark and that's a possibility right now we should consider that and what, how that will have a reaction on world markets indeed done, wang, well, let me ask you about that. what do you make of that festival? i think it's an incredible threats, of course, the minute hurry power is quite obvious for russia, but the real question is, what does russia want out of this war? where the crane and the economic sanctions pretty much is anticipated before it

started this war. and the bottom line is, the power that a western countries exert on russia can also be the western countries of on or ability for europe to cut off its energy ties with russia. it cannot be very long has to be a temporary solution, because you are really depend on russia for the energy supply and the for the us. they can certainly take out russia from the, with the system. but that means so we can in position $4.00 denominator, the global order. so now it just leaves all, all countries in this tricky balance. and i don't think russia would necessarily lose in this battle. and in this negotiation, eventually may be the trade relations between russia and china, got closer and probably will get more political power from europe as well and done . how do you think china fits into this, this tricky balance as you describe it, because earlier this month, preach and held talks with teaching ping, whether it's too late is declared,

this sort of an ending friendship with no limits and no forbidden areas of cooperation. you think about strained. now while russia is part of the bout and wrote initiative countries and they're all already a lot of collaboration on the ground infrastructure and technology, e commerce, things like that. there's even the currency slop system. and in times like this friendlier face in china, would be a great support for russia. and already we have seen more talks on, on the ground between different trades representatives on from china and from russia. so it is more opportunities for china to gain in this situation. and for russia as well, maybe to pursue a different passport. future growth, even at london is well known for it said, links to brush and money, isn't it? what about the mass ranks of oligarchs? will they always have peakins back?

we see raymond abram event. she stepped back from the designing ship of chelsea football club, a couple of others beginning to, to speak out against wall. what do you think that might represent it looks like all the got their own kind of interest may no longer align that to, to be know, for example, the british government is looking at seizing bootlegged oligarchy property in london. i've just seen the french considering similar actions to the other gods may start to think about kind of diverting from putin, i suppose, on the other side that we also see danger from those all a golf. you do decide to the foods and fundament city will determine his survival is whether or not he still has the backing of the security and the armed forces. we should remember dictators like mic, doro can survive in office. if they are, make sure they have, you know, the support of the men with guns on demand, steve uprooted was the all the golf may leave him or more than they think about it was really about is what is his position and support within his dom forces probably

felt and what was your assessment of vladimir putin, his position in the coming months, given that we're beginning to hear from the goc, suggesting that perhaps that this war was ill advised? is that something that may grow and budget and add to the unrest on the streets that you were talking about a little bit earlier? well, there is, of course, that will be addressed. there will be konami, frustration of large part of the russian population. but that, of course, not enough at all to kind of bring in the kind of substantial change in regime or substantially change russian political objectives. the cramp political objectives. why should be added that it should be widespread this content within the security apparatus? yes, the military and actually their civilian bureaucracy, which is also very important that russia,

that's how the things begin to change in russia. if that when says change is, this is this war is not very popular and it's not very popular with the russian military to. there were dissenting voices and signals coming from there that this is the wrong thing to do. and it doesn't seem that maybe in some instances, the russian military are not fighting to full capacity, or at least maybe holding back maybe under orders or maybe that they don't want to fight this war very much. so it's a complicated situation. the embrace, the integration may begin to bobbo in the coming months. will there be any change or not? again, that's anybody's question. before it begins to happen, you very hard to predict, but the security, the military have to look the other way. if there's a property or discontent, can begin to change anything in russia. ok, given that just end with you from

a if also it is where to end and some agreement was reached. how quickly could things economically, in russia, around the world get back on track, or is this, you know, such and train a long term potential recession? well, i mean, i think russia is put, will face some kind of recess, at least in the short term. if there is the k, that relations was to go back to normal. you think that be able to have some central copper. but also that think about what the long term implications would still be. europe would very much be looking to decouple the natural gas from roster and tooth. in any case, there would be you think that more of a push to net 0. there will be a complete change in relationships, especially while booted is still the lead when russia and more broadly, it's very difficult to see situation. it was shout dealings with russia will be normalized while vladimir putin is delita. because go back to where we were 10 days ago. interesting at thank you all for joining us. we run out of time,

do appreciate your oil perspectives on this very important story. pebble of how can, how done wang and a given sunday. thanks very much. indeed. i thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website, algebra dot com. and for further discussion, you can go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is a j site store for me, nick clock, and it's all holding out there. it's goodbye ah, another just either south koreans vote in a presidential election, but of scandals and controversies overshadowing policies. people in power al jazeera, investigate that document the program looks at the use and abuse of power, nay, to conduct the biggest military arctic exercise since the cold war. with 35000 troops

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