and even in poland, tempers run high. well, you can tell. i thought that a way that we went out to warn a vacant, just ukrainian. i'm so sorry. i respect you as a police officer, but what you guys are doing here, this is not the job of the county that is showing itself, that they are helping refugees coming from you. great. a war, as always, it seems, brings out the best and worst in people. and even if the fighting stop soon, foreman, repairing the damage, done to all the lives, touched by this crisis, will take much longer than i zane basra, the old as euro cordova eastern poland. ah . all right, let's take you through all the latest developments out of ukraine. there was a russian military convoy stretching for 60 kilometers, advancing towards cave us satellite images,

show armored vehicles and artillery 20 kilometers away from the city. the shillings intensified over the last few days. ukraine's army says 70 soldiers have been killed and a russian artillery strike. this was it a military base between khaki and here. and keith. the russian army has advanced on ahead a song which is little further south and dozens of civilians are reported to been killed and injured in the country. second largest city carter heath russian forces are accused of using costa bombs, which are banned in more than a 100 countries. bring it altogether now which on hold in the beef. they are upping their tempo now of attacks on large urban centers that is clear. the reports of explosions being heard in key of this morning, the capital of course, the most important urban centre in the country, that enormous convoy you've been hearing about to the north west. 40 miles long

contains rush, nama troops, logistical and support supplies, fuel supplies, and so on. that's ready to move or attempt to move on the capital. there's another convoy coming up from the southeast. the idea is to try and circle the capital and apply maximum pressure, of course on the civilian population inside. and the government of president the landscape, me my country, some around the world trying to get their citizens out of ukraine. nations including india, nigeria and south africa are organizing. we pack creation flights, a number of bare nationals accused ukrainian guards of discrimination. the tried to cross the border. we've seen these videos posted to social media, showing black people being thrown off or prevented from boarding trains and buses headed to that border with poland. you're up to date with the latest developments from russia and ukraine. the latest inside story is next. harmful pathogens are increasingly affecting our lives with terrible consequences. a new documentary asks

why that we've learned any lessons in the h. i. v. epidemic in the fight against coven 19. how we ignored the global serve to put profits before people. and it won't cost. time of pennies. coming soon on august a russians are paying a price for the invasion of ukraine. basic goods are becoming more expensive. the value of the ruble falls and economic sanctions start to fight. but could the rest of the world be affected as well? it is inside story. ah hello, welcome to the program, i'm nick clock. so russia's invasion of ukraine has triggered some of the most

severe sanctions ever from the west. that designed to hurt russia's economy and deprived president vladimir putin of money to pay for the war. the currency, the rubel, has fallen by a 3rd against the us dollar. some russian banks have been banned from the swift messaging system use for international transactions. the united states, the european union, and their allies, blocking access to much of the countries $640000000000.00 in foreign cash reserves . rushes central bank is trying to limit the fall out by raising interest rates to 20 percent. the credit insists the country will write out the pain with the fear has caused a run on the banks. the thursday everyone has been running between 8 p. m to redraw cash. someone gets lucky, others not so lucky. i don't think i would, but it's not clear how will be buying groceries and other stuff. if swift is turned off, all foreign goods are paid for by card. how will we purchase them?

i work in a department store. how will they buy clothes from italy? i wonder, i don't know how other areas will be affected. everything is working in russia, but there could be some shortages. now, me, then you won't affect me at all because i'm not too rich. i'm an average. it will affect our country, i think. but we will overcome at all when of course, the sanctions could have an impact outside of russia as well. the world's 11th biggest economy is a major exporter of fuel and food. the war could push up, price is globally. let's take a closer look. russia produces 10 percent of the world's oil, the west warned of a russian invasion back in november prices with only $85.00 a barrel. now they are more than $100.00 a barrel and rising. most go supplies, 40 percent of europe's natural gas prices on the continents have increased by 3rd since thursday, when the invasion began. russia is the world's largest weight exporter prices last

year were already 31 percent higher than in 2020. that's according to the us food. and agriculture agency economists fair they could climb even higher ah, or. busy i'd like to spring in august in moscow we have a pebble fell going house, the defense of military, unless in shanghai in china done wine, the chief economist at the hang thing, bank, china, and in london, gibbon santa, who's an economist at kings college london. welcome all of you to the program. at 1st i just wanted to focus on the situation with in russia. for now we'll look at the global situation in a few minutes. but pavel puzzle, falcon ha. busy flooded me, a putin says he's indifferent to sanctions. is that trudy thing? while russia was preparing, obviously that there can be further sanctions? actually russia has been under sanctions for ready, 8 years since 14 and to morrow are coming. and so there were reserves

made of different things, of chips and components to make planes and other materials. and of course, russia with the price of oil being higher, the price of natural gas do made large hard currency reserves. and it was boy, that russia could, the weather, the storm, that sanctions will have some effect further on, but not immediate. it turns out differently on the west greed very promptly to freeze the assets of the central bank. and that was a shock and awe event, right? so what, what is the, what implications of that? because those hard currency reserves you talked about been pretty much half of laser, he loses access to much of the $640000000000.00. that was there. what's gonna be the old not on with that belongs to the central bank as reserve itself, the sovereign fund, which is under the custodians ship of the central bank. so the,

and that's also harton and foreign currency. so that means the central bank does not have the capability to support the rouble by using those reserves. they have been frozen. and actually there's reports that not only in euro's dollars, stero wing, and apparently yen, actually switzerland, the usual country pathways. also looking into freezing russian acids, so it would be the frank to that's not, that's not good at all. so today, moscow, there was panic in the city. the bread, the in rural bo was in free fall. the central bank moved them and somewhat managed to stabilize the situation. okay. will they come into the situation with an oscar? well, just just a 2nd pebble at, sorry to interrupt. i want to move on. we'll come back in a 2nd about what's happening on the streets at dan, dan wang at outside of china. have you been surprised by the, the level of sanctions finally being imposed now on russia? i'm actually not as surprised,

gathering all the political signals in the market from europe in the us. it seems that will happen that way. the swift is used and a my line of business is considered as a nuclear option in a financial world. but energy products are still an exemption, so i just don't think the pain would be big enough to deter russia. yet, there has to be more of a consistent behavior in alliance between western countries in order to cause the real damage they want to see driven signed. what do you think? do you think the needs to be more effort to, to up the level of sanctioning going on? actually the sanctions are clear, putative, and overwhelming. we should be clear that as of this morning, the russian economy is in crisis. the rubel is crushing, inflation will increase. bank crosby are also seeing russia is fundamentally much poorer this morning than it was yesterday. these factors will have

a huge damaging of that. and one of the ironies of course of this is because putin spent to 2014 insulating the russian economy from his west diapers by selling very little debt abroad by restricting import by trying to build that reserve. it also be the sanctions are going to have relatively less effect on western economies. created gamble everything on this card of invading ukraine. he thought he had a war chest ready. it's clear that is no longer the case. he went all laid and it looks like he's about to lose very badly. right. so puzzle the rubel as you were just saying, the rubel has bombed home and now the impact that that is going to have in the lives of the men and women on the street. what will it due to the cost of living for the 145000000 people in russia? well, it says the central bank right now today stepped in. they managed to stabilize the situation that even their rebounds of the robo. but the medicine is very,

very big character. they have written the their basic landing rate from 9 and a half percent to 20. 20 percent means that the russian industry is going to tank normal industry kind to work at such a rate only. i don't know. speaker, the trading in black market can. that means there's going to be or recession in russia. there's going to be a severe economic recession, and that's going to take the population very seriously. there are going to be shortages because there's going to be a problem with imports. and not only because of money, because russia still selling oil and getting some money. but this is not frozen. but there's logistical problem for just the company. they're refusing to bring containers to russia and will be, won't having bananas. but we're also having a pre courses to make generic maxims and everything is going to go. and that's

going to be, there's this, all of it in some is going to affect very bad with the internal political situation . they're going to be serious this content in the coming months. and that, coupled with the war that seems not very popular and not very successful, right? i was going to come. what do you think, what cents are you getting from people that people, you know, the people you talk to in the shops and so forth about what's going on and what happens the result of these sanctions, ultimately, as a result of a lot of pieces, decision to invade low, i'm and right now people are in shock because they're gadgets working. this is not working. so people are trying to get something by something do something or just simply sit and frustration because their wires are kind of crumbling about them. moscow like we're traveling a lot abroad now. they're also no rush and brains around anywhere. the rush in 5

minutes to couldn't go to geneva and another, another people, ordinary people also can go anywhere. so this is a kind of very serious frustration. there is some anti war movement, it's not yet very big, but there is there. and that's also eating in to be no political stability. if these things right now, it's not yet the political problem for the kremlin, but it can soon become with the equity because all these things will be adding up, right? and people are of course, frustrated asking me questions. what comes next and i don't have any good news for them. it's going to be much worse gibbons under in london to what extent can, can russia fight back? because we've heard in the last few hours, russia closing space of $36.00 odd countries. that's going to have repercussions across the world's net. it will do the real damaging weapon that russia has. of

course, is, as you mentioned, a huge amount of energy export. the 2nd largest producer of natural gas have a landed 40 percent of our electricity comes from energy. we are much of the gas in the european union as well does come from russia. but whilst it can try to restrict those exports, we should remember the russia or cities to export that it ordered how dollars come into the country and not see the rubel crash further. deeds those dollars rushes, economic sanctions back to the to the western world. if you like outside of energy and we are very limited, even with energy and we, it's very difficult to see how effectively they could deploy it, give it how badly they need at this point in time, us dollars, it doesn't look like the russian economy or russian government here had a huge amount of maneuver by which to strike back at western nations. yes. and they just as we emerged from the panoramic crisis, we walk straight into this kind of storm cloud of water. we done and weighing in

shanghai with your finances have to and if you like, how far reaching do you think the consequences of russia's invasion of ukraine will be for the world? and indeed for soul wherever we may live? well, i think for come, for country like ukraine, it's economy probably will have to be put back by at least 5 years just due to this war. but for the rest of the world, unfortunately, i think that you cannot make impact will be quite drastic in the beginning, but quickly fade off dry. now we see a lot of adjustment in the stock market and people are rushing to to save us. but judging by historical experience, say, the period after the goal for a period after $911.00, the markets will return to normal, usually between one to one to 6 months. and right now we see actually many countries see more opportunities to strengthen their bond way to russia,

including china. so it's not the case for like iran or cuba that they're very isolated from the rest of the world. russia still has friends and allies from other possible, but if you know, we've been talking about supply russia, the big supplier waste in the world, if that has is hit badly. yeah, it's going to affect to basic basic commodity of bread, isn't it? and that is going to have repercussions around the world. it's not something that's just going to, you know, vap rate once the invasion stops, or they come to some sort of agreement if they do, and this, this might drag on for, for months. while food security is certainly a prime concern, but the impact again is quite uneven. for countries in middle east and in north africa, they depend more heavily on russian and ukraine supply, especially wheat and reach seats. so we will see some disproportionate impact for the poor people in those country. if you look at country like turkey, the inflation pressure is already very high. and i just can see that more people

would have to suffer from high living cost in a month to come driven. what do you think? what do you have? how do you think the sanctions on russia will reverberate across the, the world global economy? really for the, for the, for the amount of women on the street from, you know, from kenya to london. so, yes, it you, to whatever extent people are exposed to russian financial assets, we are going to see some kind of repercussion. you see in stock market down slightly this morning. similarly, the same is true of russia decides to offload its dollars denominated debt for example. but the more severe question is really about to what extent energy prices as well as food prices are effected, got what matters. the people on the street now we had a threat for method as a few days ago, said that he would cause the price of gas to increase by more than double in the u . k. that would be another increase of energy prices about a 1000 pounds to the average family,

and other 3 points on inflation. at the same time we're seeing across the c d to be inflation spiking and living standards for inside the u. k. we see the biggest fall or we'll see this year for working house or the biggest fall in after tax income for 30 years. and we're seeing there's pressure, of course, everywhere. the real question here is, what happens, those energy exports, what happens? those food exports, pebble, what do you think of that threat from vivid up to put a squeeze on the gas flow and push up the price? is that something that you will see? come into play. i will actually, i don't know. today their president put in and gramlin had a meeting on the sanctions and rush and response. the results are not yet known. this is may be a possibility. but again, of course, that that is a dangerous weapon, because if russia begins to leave the gas supplies,

the west will begin to squeeze vast prom. and that a gas from has assets in the west, even have natural gas in western europe and in central europe. and under ground facilities, which could be confiscated, i know there's the cutting off supply of oil and gas was a very dangerous weapon. and once i could, there's going to be a lot of consideration before using that. of course, the 1st reaction by president bush, him of that she threatened brandish the nuclear weapon big and he amounts to kind of high that the level of readiness. i mean, the equivalent of the american deaf com as being listed. and so basically, russia is saying, if you both sanctions or not, we can maybe begin to use nukes, actually it's possible that the nuclear weapon could be exploded somewhere in the

safe place. and over the seas. mtc somewhere. and the north sea in the regency or the atlantic, where it won't cause any harm as a demonstration of russian determination. because such things have been kind of proposed and tested without explosion. of course, in russian military exercises beginning from the ninety's, it's called the escalation through nuclear escalation and demonstrate as nuclear attack. that sounds like again to me. and that's the possibility right now, we should consider that and what, how that will have a reaction on world markets indeed done, wang, well, let me ask you about that. what do you make of that? first of all, i think it's an incredible threats. of course, the minute hurry, power is quite obvious for russia. but the real question is,

what does russia want out of this war? where the crane and the economic sanctions pretty much is anticipated before it started this war. and the bottom line is, the power that a western countries exert on russia can also be the western countries on her ability for europe to cut off its energy ties with russia. it cannot be very long has to be a temporary solution, because you are really depend on russia for the energy supply and the for the us. they can certainly take out russia from the, with the system. but that means so we can in position for dollar denominated a global order. so now it just leaves all, all countries in this tricky balance. and i don't think russia would necessarily lose in this battle. and in this negotiation, eventually may be the trade relations between russia and china, get closer, and probably will get more political power from europe as well and done. how do you

think china fits into this, this tricky balance as you describe it, because earlier this month, putin hell talks with teaching ping, whether it's too late is declared, this sort of unending friendship with no limits and no forbidden areas of cooperation getting that strained. now, while russia is part of the bout and wrote initiative countries and they're all already a lot of collaboration on the ground infrastructure and technology, e commerce, things like that. there's even the currency slop system. and in times like this friendlier face in china, would be a great support for russia. and already we have seen more talks on, on the ground between different trades representatives on from china and from russia. so it is more opportunities for china to gang in this situation. and for russia as well, maybe to pursue a different passport. future growth,

even at london is well known for it said, links to brush and money, isn't it? what about the mass ranks of oligarchs? will they always have peakins back? we see raymond abram of it. she stepped back from the designing ship of chelsea, football club, couple of others beginning to, to speak out against wall. what do you think of it is looking at seizing pewter linked oligarchy? property in london, i've just seen the french considering similar actions to the other gods may start to think about kind of diverting from pigeon. i suppose on the other side that we also see danger from those oligarchy. do decide to the foods in and fun. density will determine his survival is whether or not he still has the backing of the security and the armed forces. we should remember dictators like the doro can survive in office. if they are, make sure they have the support of the men with guns refunded when steve uprooted was all the golf may leave him or more than they think about it was really about is

what is his position and support within his dom forces? probably felt and what was your assessments, vladimir putin position in the coming months given that we're beginning to hear from the article suggesting that perhaps that this war was ill advised. is that something that may grow and budget and add to the unrest on the streets that you were talking about a little bit earlier? well, there is, of course, that will be addressed. there will be konami frustration of large parts of the russian population. but that's, of course, not enough at all to kind of bring in the kind of substantial change in regime or substantially change russian political objectives. the cramp political objectives. why should be added that they should be widespread this content within the security apparatus? yes, the military and actually their civilian bureaucracy, which is also very important that russia that's how the things begin to change. and

russia, if, when the changes say this war is not very popular and it's not very popular with the russian military due, there were dissenting voices and signals coming from there that this is the wrong thing to do. and it doesn't seem that maybe in some instances, the russian military are not fighting to full capacity, or at least maybe holding back maybe under orders or maybe that they don't want to fight this war very much. so it's a complicated situation. the in the regime may begin to bobbo in the coming months. will there be any change or not? again, that's anybody's question. before it begins to happen, you very hard to predict, but the security, the military have to look the other way. if there's a floppy or discontent, can begin to change anything in russia. ok give and i'd like to end with you from

a if i'll still it is where to end and some agreement was reached. how quickly could things economically, in russia, around the world get back on track, or is this, you know, such and train a long term potential recession? well, i mean, i think russia is put, will face some kind of recession, at least in the short term. if it is the k, that relation was to go back to normal. you think that be able to, in some sense, recover. but also, let's think about what the long term implications would still be. europe would very much be looking to decouple the natural gas from roster and tooth. in any case, there would be you think that more of a push to net 0. there will be a complete change in relationships, especially while tutored is still the lead when russia and more broadly, it's very difficult to see situation in which our dealings with russia will be normalized while bottom putin is delita. because go back to where we were 10 days ago. interesting at thank you all for joining us. we run out of time,

do appreciate your oil perspectives on this very important story. pebble of how can, how done wang and a given sunday thanks very much indeed. and thank you for watching. you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll desert dot com for further discussion. you can go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash a j inside story. or you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is a j 5 for me, no clock. and it's all holding out there. it's goodbye. ah and i just either south koreans vote in a presidential election, but us scandals and controversies overshadowing policies. people in power as just the, are the best to get the document. the program looks at the use and abuse of power. nato conducts the biggest military arctic exercise since the cold war with 35000

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will the world react to his latest new? what impact with his hop on the people, the crane and russia? as events unfold, stay with us for the latest news and analysis for moscow on all 0. ah, we al jazeera, with our reports, his retreat in a brutal civil war. if a commodore hadn't been there, the israel invasion would not have been so well reported. the commodore had become journalistic center. you could be in the safe enclave and then you went out into civil war. i started off leaving this grand suite at the commodore hotel. the next room i was in was underground in a tiny prison. so as a hostage, a route the commodore wall hotels on al jazeera,

ah, a military column, 64 kilometers long as the russian military edges closer to the outskirts of ukraine's capital. ah, i'm come all santa maria here in doha with the lightest from the russia ukraine. mm hm. this is ukraine's 2nd biggest city being shelled russian forces unleash a wave of artillery attacks on a residential area of half heat.