trophies so hell malik al jazeera in paris, the bells of nato dom brung out a mid day to day blue. it was a show of solidarity with the people of ukraine. there was similar scenes across europe, in cathedrals and churches, and cities like fietta, rome, and cologne. inside those places of worship, congregations pay prayed for peace. ah, it is good savvy with us. hello, adrian said, i could hear it though. how the headlines now to sierra russian president vladimir putin claims that his invasion of ukraine is going to plan. speaking a short while ago, he praised russian soldiers as he rose and said that moscow would stand firm against the west. look only missy nika done yet because ruth, yet i will never deny my conviction that rush round ukraine or of one nation in

spite of ukrainians, being threatened and fooled by nazi propaganda and joining not cecil those who during world war 2 were against us. we are now fighting neo nazi brigades. i spoke with you, but talks on the way between delegates from ukraine and russia in bel. ruth's a possible cease fire is on the agenda. ukraine's president vladimir zalinski says he's speaking to around 20 foreign leaders a day. he also repeated a call for no fly zone to be implemented over the country. andrew simmons reports now from lived near the border with poland. there is a, a pretty doc backdrop to the talks that are ongoing as far as we're aware between the russian delegation and the ukranian delegation. add to the pessimism coming from the french president. there is pessimism coming from the ukranian president lensky. in that he feels that he needs the help of your more help from

your more help from the rest of the world. the critical situation, his countries in its fighting for its very survival. he outlined that in a news conference, the mayor of mario paul is reporting mass casualties after what he describes as 50 now as a bombardment by russian forces who are surrounding the eastern port city officials say that wars has been cut off and that food is wanting out, rational forces are continuing to pound, surely him, which lies north of the capitol. keith. earlier this dash camp footage kept at the moment of an explosion rocked the city. international criminal court chief prosecutor says an investigation into possible war crimes in ukraine will begin straight away. nearly 40 countries impact the prob i. c. c prosecutor says there's reasonable basis to believe war crimes have been committed. one is for here and i was 0 right after today's inside story. next dictatorships to democracy. activists to cooperation control of the message is crucial for public opinions for profit.

the listening post examines the vested interest by the content. you can hugh on al jazeera, the war in ukraine is pushed up the price of all to a 10 year high, and the russia on the sanctions prices could continue to go higher. so how will the world deal with this energy crisis? this is in size to ah hello, welcome to the program on has i'm seeking as the russian invasion of ukraine enters it's 2nd week. crude oil prices have risen to levels not seen in a decade. russia is the world's 3rd largest oil producer and provider of nearly 40 percent of europe's energy supplies, prompting many to look for alternatives. a began g. consumers are boycotting,

rushing crude, collapsing that demand as they shut the country's market. energy markets have largely been sped from the sanctions. western countries placed on rushes, financial sector, knowing how important energy is so their own economies. despite the rising prices, opec and other oil producing countries said they are sticking with their plan to gradually increased oil production. meanwhile, nations including the u. s, have agreed to release 60000000 barrels of crude oil reserves. it is how the increase in supply will cub oil prices after rushes invasion of ukraine. the price of crude is expected to have more than $120.00 a barrel this weekend, and the increase is already causing long queues pumps. in some regions of the world . a u energy mrs. say they want to speed up their transition to clean energy sources. no hope of the faster europe can cope in the event that there is a car in the supply of gas or oil from russia. we can do it immediately. however, we will have to look in the medium term on how to build new stocks for next winter

by 1st looking at how to diversify our supply. then by replacing our strategic stocks again and using our strategic stocks. but also by generally increasing our imports. futile says for since a frankly found buddhist, we are 4 to 6 percent dependent on russian gas, 30 percent dependent on russian oil and 20 percent dependent on russian uranium. so it's clear that if we want to eliminate this dependency, we will have to accelerate our energy transition heat our homes differently and generate our electricity differently than it was in the most important. i tend a boy and he's our support to ukraine. in this perspective, i expect that an edge missed as through to support their emergency synchronization of ukraine power to create boot with european creech as soon as possible. i believe that this is say only possibility at current

circumstances. ah, well let's get the thoughts of our guests now. joining us from london is alex sion de la president of energy intelligence and the former editor of petroleum intelligence weekly. and also we have a beyond shell, dropped a specialist on european energy politics. and joining us from washington, ben came hill. so ben, k hill, senior fellow at the energy security and climate change program at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us. so alex and if i could start with you, then what sort of implications is all this having for the russian economy? first of all, the longer this goes on, thanks for having me on. i mean, the impact on the russian economy already beginning to be cells and the opening part, the sanctions have excluded energy, which is

a large chunk of budget. but we already know that ordinary, she's very wealthy by the sanctions on the stock market. so there's the sanction being felt in russian government and might be on shale job. but we mentioned there how dependence, so many european countries on, on russian energy. and there was, there were, there had been quite uneasiness about that before this conflict started. this has now force them to rethink things a lot more quickly or hasn't absolute. i mean, if you look back over the past 2030 years now, idea was that europe, the western europe should go hand in hand to be with russia into the future. we should that by energy from russia, and they would get money from off happy marriage. and that marriage is now broken

totally. and we saw like a 180 degree turn by germany last week from long term supporter of importing russian energy. certainly they just turned around and now we're going to build energy in port terminal. they have non, today we're going to move away from this the energy marriage with, with them, with russia. and of course, you know, we have a huge reliance on energy from russia today. in western europe. so we cannot be break that the marriage aren't quite yet, but i think the divorce is clear. and you know, this is going to accelerate western europe's past towards renewable energy, electric vehicles and less dependent, especially on the rest and then k. oh, how much damage could this due to the world economy? because with the economic sanctions that we've seen so far from the united states and from from their partners in europe, we've seen them kind of pull their punches a bit when it comes to energy because they know how much it's,

it's how much it could effect then the economic blowback of this on them potentially so. so how much, what is the impact that is going forward? and if things don't change, could they rethink that strategy of, of not doing anything to upset the energy market to this point. you can expect really high. this is one of the biggest energy disruptions that you're seeing since shocks of the 70s. and the back up of this is not a statement, a lot of western economies which had inflation pretty serious price run out. commodity prices have been rushing for the last 6 months as a result of this really rapid rebound and commodities for, well, natural gas and other products. and i think it's taking government special price. it's a big liability. ready for finding ministration of others, it's a huge economic challenge to do with it. and, you know, even before this past week with the war, things were giving difficulty management perspective. here in washington,

the concern is always gasoline prices and how to manage not reality is that if you're in the white house, you don't operate options to do writing and expresses. and the latest conflict, the war rushes as an entered into with the payments just kind of terminal charged on concerns. alex schindler, in fact, turned back to you. and i put this question to you on earlier. is this going to speed up efforts to diversify energy dependence? from a lot of countries. well i think what we've heard it, many or meters would like it to and they're going to make efforts to do it. i think the one thing to know is the bigger picture here, short term disability. guess you're not dependent on russia, it is not possible in short term, but the bigger picture here is a division between europe and russia. and i think i was the previous previous

speaker set a breaking marriage. and so your job to find other alternatives, they're making decisions, force them to do so, whether they're going to be able to find, i'll turn the gas supplies motor jobs. where are they going to find? rethink their new killer stance syndication some countries or whether they're going to try to speed up the transition into economy by rushing through renewables and other sources did. there's a longer term direction travel, but i would agree this is not gonna be possible to buy away. so it will. ready be tough in the short term disruptions your brush energy no longer have young children . how could this, how bad could this get for you? because history has shown that whenever there's been a, a law spike in oil prices, not long after that, there's been quite a large recession. yeah, i mean, you know,

that it's increasing risk that this is going to have an extremely negative out pull out for me. and especially for european called me and if you look at natural gas prices right now, they are in europe. they're trading at the equivalent of $300.00 per barrel of oil equivalent versus normal $35.00 to $40.00, right? so we are talking $8910.00 times the normal price in europe. and we also 5 prices in a separate natural gas. and of course, you know, the market is price. you know, these parts are going to be where they are now at $300.00. what's the year uncle that you want? i think that is totally unsustainable. this is, is breaking, add the mom down and prices will have to pull back. and, and of course, when you break the mom, you basically essentially break the economy. and of course, you know, it's not just natural gas, the cold prices are 5 times higher than normal. they increase 50 percent yesterday

and not just for the front end, but also for an ad december contract later this year. and so, you know, it's rippling and state cascading through the global economy, and we, you so much energy for so many things and everything will go increasing and cost industrial math if i'm moving straight off to, to increase cost. but all start agricultural products are moving straight up the matter with the highest price ever in no renewal terms or the agriculture product index, or a ben cayo. how bad could this get for the us economy? the longer these guys on, you mentioned, you know, higher prices at the palms that's, that's going to affect many americans more, more directly. but the longer with the other problems that the u. s. economy and other economies are facing right now with inflation and trying to get trying to recover from, from, from the long pandemic. the,

the effects to that. how back to this get, the longer this goes on for america. i think inflation is an economy. why problem? united states, not just in the sector, it's going to dinner. you see the price of food is increased. the cost of everything seems to be going up. i think this is the number one challenge, the white house and energy is a huge part of it. now the consumer prices are increasing around 77 percent of most of us have never seen this presentation license and you know the old adage and i guess the prices that people feel every time they see the numbers pretty physical, some of the inflation feel around them so the white house is really keenly focused on this. that's been a huge challenge for them since the fall. we saw this why don't start to experiment with. ready using the strategic petroleum reserve last november to try to put more on the market market. let's talk over and over again about trying to have dialogue

with producers to turn into production. the reality is, this is a white house, but i think we want to talk about, well, they want to talk about the energy transition. we want to talk about pushing that forward. but energy security issues come back in a big way in the past 6 months. and so they're trying to keep her eyes on that rising longer term energy transition issues that they care so passionately about trying to push those forward. but the reality the mark isn't things, of course it got much worse. and last week, alex and a lot, we mentioned at the top there how opec a for now is going to stick to its current policy of not opening up the taps further to try and bring bringing the pressure down and increase supply. and thereby, hopefully lower the price is what's the thinking behind that, and what are the, the kind of geopolitical implications as well with the biden and ministration is a great question. i think as many years been at this week,

you have a very quick meeting and they keep production same now thinking as we understand it is they really didn't think there's much additional oil mark. and because from there you, a lot of the price is coming from the premium or, and their experience and a lot of experience people that are leading countries. now, jones, adding additional barrels and markets it's facing, crisis is not always the recipe. kind of bring price down to get to that point, reduce the price is often just not a correlation there, especially in the prices. so 1st of all, there wasn't much points and adding additional barrels. they also point out, you know, russia in the key members of the opec alliance, that's been magic markets for

a number of years now. and they also did not want to get into discussion with russia. member states, whether it's appropriate to be raising or changing out. right. now, once you start talking about it, it starts getting complicated and they did not want the story. so the strategy were quick, continuation of already and now get it over with and don't become the story. they do not want the giants dominate. the framework be on shell drop, is there a fear as well that by increasing supply right now, it could come back to bite them and later on you'll get a lot in the markets and that'll bring oil prices to low to low to, to load. they like right, i mean if you look at the brent crude bob price today, it trader that's high up $1727.00 per barrel. i think sort of these, of course oil prices cheating, wind across the world for consumers everywhere. while, while map gas prices,

so are predominant asian and european consumers. and i think you know, versus historical level demand destruction for oil is starting to buy from $120.00 per $100.00 per barrel. so we were starting to make this fractional demand side with, with current or prices, and i think opec with very much like to avoid abuse and then a bus. they would like to avoid that current spike in energy and that was then it grew culture prices pit. basically it keeps the go my own interest session. so i think yes and at restaurant. so they're able to have a very, very important relationship. and so these is very lucky to step in and meddling the whole thing and add more barrels in the middle of the crisis. but you know, the price continues to $100.00 or $250.00. you know, i think the coast to different because the risk actually increases significantly

and the bus cycle is not really what you want as an oil producer really would like to be. it's more stable and that avoiding the bus. so that could change the way ben came, well, what's your view on that? i think it's, it's a position for us to be there. say the goal is to avoid volatility in the work and the backdrop of this is that spare capacity within the group is pretty limited. if you take a step back in april 2020 ok make the biggest production cuts responded to the price crash that happened with insurance after 199 point something move out market ever since month by month. we've been adding thousands. what they said is that they're hoping to down supply and demand. they don't want to move too quickly and

put too many barrels onto the market. if you see some potential downside risk. issue here is that asked about it more onto the market each more. the wedge and available spare capacity. it's gotten smaller and smaller and in a tight market like that's a lot of concerns. but we've been tories pretty strong demands. people are worried about los therapy costs. so in addition to the question of whether not in helping markets put barrels on, it's kind of a don't situation know, they put more bows under the market and the minister cost me backfire in some ways . so my read on the meeting this week is that they needed more time to digest what was happening and the scale of the disruption from russia before they take action. i think another thing is the back of their minds is that we could have an iran to some point very soon and that would have a really true impact on balances looking out for the rest of this year. so yeah, i think there was some benefits. see how this unfolds, and then maybe come back to make a decision. yeah,

let's put that alex in de la. i mean, ben can, you know, there was talking about if there's a possibility of reviving the 2015 nuclear iran nuclear deal. and the potential of bringing iran back into the, into the oil market what, what effect could that have but it would have a major impact. and so what we are hearing is that we are quite close to a deal be agreed between us and western powers. and bronze. ready former president trump walked away from and this would be a significant addition to the market for all we understand that maybe this is not a, a point of discussion. really. they kind of just want to get it as possible not very much at all. and their policies, they don't really talk about what's going to happen future but, but a return of iran, at least from a sentiment given the understanding that back to the market. and they can actually

do it would potentially counteract some of that sort of thing in the market, which is, which is getting quite now. and i think we have to remember that it's going to take months to bring any rain production back. i think the range hope that they can move out about one to one day over the next couple of months actually do. ready is read everything or experience that sometimes optimistic but all that time. so while the announcement of the deal would be from a center where you potentially or something that can counteract higher world prices for a physical supply point of view, i think people should get too excited about this. actually changing the question, but we're talking about here because as ben says we're having is not quite enough world, it's sort of stillness market and the actual barrels of that are getting smaller, smaller beyond shelter. a lot of people have been saying that the,

the war in ukraine may have a limited impact on the, on the global economy right now. because trade links with russia and the rest of the world were limited to begin with with russia accounting for something like 1.5 percent of jo, global g d p. so with that in mind then what, what potential impact you think that could be both on, on, on rushes, economy and the rest of the world? well, i mean, as long as energy prices are low, we tend to forget that it matters, right? it's kind of off the chart out of mine, and we don't know if it's how incredibly important and the g and it's before prices starts to rise significantly. and of course, russia is massively important for global energy market, especially for european and general ford of noble market. but, but also remember that russia, it's a very our tech support roles and l a. d m,

and the, and a lot of other resource as well. and not to forget, russia is the biggest number one we export in the world. and ukraine is number number 5. and together it, russia and ukraine export more beat from the sort of bread basket and black earth and black sea region. and they are bigger together then united states and canada together. so you know, when it's really fun and you really want and the, you want, of course, russia is massively important. just the short common on, on crude barrels from, from opec plus, you know, what we see here is it's a squeeze that started in the natural gas market with light molecules. and these typically have, have cascade into a tight market for the lights we've created. in brent crude and v t i and the crew that opec plus typically have. and the russia also have is it

is medium heavy and power crude. so this is not the biggest short edge. the biggest shortest is in the light and of the specter for lights with crude and eating rally . but of course, now we're losing something like one to 2000000 barrels of her day from russia in terms of crude oil power mediums our crude and, and there. and that is, of course, heightening off that part of the mar, which of course, the rest of last to help to alleviate that be good. but, but you know right now it's, it's an exporter strike. in terms of crude borrows out of all rush right seems which see for is not one piece is take the cargo refineries not want to take the oil. so even if in and the g is not anxious for exports out the rush, impractical terms, we actually see ash har, reduction or flows of both coal and oil. our western aggression

had been cahill beyond mentioned there, the impact of wheat we when we supply so beyond oil, we looked at other commodities like lightweight, which as was said, russia and ukraine, our last suppliers of what, what implications, what impact could that have on, on the global markets, i think the only good for russia is often thought of as an export or just work a lot of metals and functions commodities to. so that you pretty much what i think it adds to the impression that concern receive well, food prices, a lot of places we can use that are quite dependent on friends in ports. so it's going to add to some of that economic pressure. and just to back up something to be on. so, i mean, i think when we look at the shortage is today,

we see an immediate impact with some of these other commodity commodities, inputs and kind of based materials that are used in factoring. lots of other things to potential price is not necessarily today over a couple months. all right, we're going to have to leave it there. thank you. to all 3 of you alexander law. be on a shell drop and ben k. hill. thanks so much for being on the inside story. and thank you. as always watching, remember, you can see this program again any time just go to a website just to dot comment for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a j inside sport. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. there is a j inside story. for me hasn't see. can the whole team here in the hall bye for now? i ah

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