miss alca ukrainian restaurant in the heart of these village has long been an enclave for the diaspora. that 3rd generation ukrainian, american owner, summed up the mood. we're saddens we're, we're frightened, we're concerned. we're angry. we're upset. it's just really a very difficult time for us. the restaurant has become an unofficial meeting spot for those who want to show support for ukraine. just down the street from the restaurant, new york's ukrainian museum, it's director, feels the museum has been given added importance in the wake of vladimir putin's comment that ukraine is quote, not a real country. ukraine is a separate country, has its own history, has his own culture protests against the russian invasion of ukraine, our daily occurrences in new york, home to an estimated $170000.00 ukrainians more than anywhere else in the united states. the longer this war goes on, the harder it is become for ukrainians abroad to watch from afar as their country

continues to be attacked. gabriel zango al jazeera new york. ah. just a quick run through the latest developments now. ukrainian emergency service to say a fire at europe's largest nuclear plant has been extinguished. but the u. k. any president accused russian forces of knowingly firing at its russian troops are reported to advanced in that area over natasha butler in the vase. russian tubes have seized control of that nuclear power plant that comes from a regional authorities, a regional ukrainian authorities, or we're still trying to get a more details on exactly or what that means. and whether or not it is confirmed by a very tense and difficult nights. ukrainian authorities are saying that the power point has been secured now, but only after many hours in which

a fire was burning in that plant. after it was attacked by a russian forces. ukrainian fire fighters were not able to get anywhere close to it . at the beginning to put out the blaze because they were being fired upon russia and ukraine have made their 1st hints of progress in talks. both sides agreed on the need for humanitarian corridors, but no indication of when they'd be established to help civilians findings intensifying. meanwhile, russian forces of surrounded the city of mario paul, official say water has been cut off and food is in short supply. the russian president, vladimir putin is brushed aside reports. the parts of these military campaign have stalled. he says everything's going to plan despite russian military losses and ukrainian civilian casualties without you're up to date with the headlines inside story is next. with ice caps melting in the north pole, juice of climate change,

and china is rambling up research and investment region. $11.00, east explorer, china's right on al jazeera, the war in ukraine has pushed up the price of all to a 10 year high with russia under sanctions. prices could continue to go higher. so how will the world deal with this energy crisis? this is inside, stored ah, walk into the program and hasn't seeking as the russian invasion of ukraine enters its 2nd week, crude oil prices have risen to levels not seen and a decade. russia is the world's 3rd largest oil producer and provider of nearly 40 percent of europe's energy supplies, prompting many to look for alternatives. of big energy consumers are boycotting,

rushing crude, collapsing their demand as they shut the country's market. energy markets have largely been sped from the sanctions, western countries placed on russia's financial sector, knowing how important energy is to their own economies. despite the rising prices, opec, and other oil producing countries said they are sticking with their plan to gradually increase oil production. me more nations including the u. s. have agreed to release 60000000 barrels of crude oil reserves. it is how the increase in supply will curb oil prices after rushes invasion of ukraine. the price of crude is expected to hit more than a $120.00 a barrel this weekend, and the increase is already causing long queues pumps. in some regions of the world . a u energy mrs. say they want to speed up their transition to clean energy sources. you hook hooker faster. europe can cope in the event that there is a car in the supply of gas or oil from russia. we can do it immediately. however, we will have to look in the medium term or how to build new stocks for next winter

by 1st looking at how to diversify our supply. then by replacing our strategic stocks again and using our strategic stocks. but also by generally increasing our imports. houston says for since a frankly from buddhist, we are 4 to 6 percent dependent on russian gas, 30 percent dependent on russian oil and 20 percent dependent on russian uranium. so it's clear that if we want to eliminate this dependency, we will have to accelerate our energy transition heat our homes differently and generate our electricity differently than the most important i tend to point is our support to ukraine. in this perspective, i expect that energy missed as soon as so bored there. emergency synchronization of ukraine power to crete boot with european creech as soon as possible. i believe that this is say, only possibility,

a cut and circumstances. ah, well let's get the thoughts of our guests now. joining us from london is alex sion de la president of energy intelligence and the former editor of petroleum intelligence weekly. and also we have a beyond shell, dropped a specialist on european energy politics. and joining us from washington, ben came hill. so ben, k hill, senior fellow at the energy security and climate change program at the center for strategic and international studies. good to have you with us. so alex and if i could start with you, then what sort of implications is all this having for the russian economy? first of all, the longer this goes on, thanks for having the i mean, the impact on the russia already beginning to be felt. as you said in the opening part, the sanctions have excluded energy, which is large shondra,

russia, budget. but we already know that ordinary russians and very wealthy by the sanction problem, the stock market. so there's no interest in russia government and might be on shale job. but we mentioned there how dependent, so many european countries are on, on russian energy. and there was, there were, there had been quite uneasiness about that before this conflict started. this has now force them to rethink things a lot more quickly or has an absolute. i mean, if you look back over the past 2030 years now, idea was that europe, the western europe should go hand in hand to get with russia into the future. we should that by energy from russia, and they would get money from off happy marriage. and that marriage is now broken

totally. and we saw like a 180 degree turn by germany last week, from long term supporter of importing. i rushed to energy. suddenly they just turned around and say, now we're going to build energy in port terminal. they have non, today we're going to move away from this the energy marriage with, with them, with russia. and of course, you know, we have a huge reliance on energy from russia today in western europe. so we cannot, we break that the marriage aren't quite yet, but i think the divorce is clear. and you know, this is going to extend the rate western europe's path towards when you will, and the g electric vehicles and less dependent, especially on the rest, and then k. oh, how much damage could this due to the world economy? because with the economic sanctions that we've seen so far from the united states and from from their partners in europe, we've seen them kind of pull their punches a bit when it comes to energy because they know how much it's how much it could

effect then the economic blowback of this on them potentially so. so how much, what is the impact to these going forward? and if things don't change, could they rethink that strategy of, of not doing anything to upset the energy market to this point. you can expect really high. this is one of the biggest energy disruption, seen shops of the seventies and the back up of the united states, a lot of western economies which had inflation pretty serious price run ups, commodity prices have been rushing for the last 6 months. as a result of this really rapid re done and commodities, well, natural gas and other products and i think it's taking government by surprise. it's a big liability. ready for ministration and others, it's a huge economic challenge to do with it. and you know, even before this past week for the war things we're giving it to mention perspective here in washington. the concern is always gasoline prices and how

presidents can manage not reality, is that if you're in the white house, you don't have great options to do with writing prices. and the latest conflict, the war that rushes entered into this just kind of terminal charged homes concerns . alex schindler, if i could turn back to you on this, i put this question to you on earlier. is this going to speed up efforts to diversify energy dependence from a lot of countries? well, i think what we've heard it, many or meters like it, and they're going to make efforts to do it. i think the one thing to know is the bigger picture here, short term, the guess you're not depends on russia is not possible in short term, but the bigger picture here is a division between europe and russia. and i think i was the previous guest

speaker, set a break in marriage, and so your job to find other alternatives, they're making decisions for them to do so. so whether they're going to be able to find, i'll turn the gas device, 40 percent, whether they're going to find rethink their new killer stance syndication to some countries. or whether they're going to try to speed up the transitions. economy by rushing through renewables and other sources are longer term directions travel, but i would 100 percent agree. this is not possible to buy away. so we talk in the short term disruptions. your brush energy no longer have young children. how could this, how bad could this get for you? because history has shown that whenever there's been a, a law spike in oil prices, not long after that, there's been quite a large recession. yeah, i think you know,

that it's increasing risk that this is going to have an extremely negative out pull out for me, and especially for european called me. and if you look at natural gas prices right now, they are in europe. they're trading at the equivalent of $300.00 per barrel of oil equivalent versus normal $35.00 to $40.00, right? so we are talking $8910.00 times the normal price in europe. and we also 5 prices in a separate natural gas. and of course, you know, the market is price, you know, these price are going to be where they are now at $300.00. what's the year uncle that you want? i think that is totally unsustainable. this is, is breaking ad the mom down and prices will have to pull back. and, and of course, when you break demand, you basically essentially break the economy. and of course, you know, it's not just natural gas. the cold prices are 5 times higher than normal. they

increase 50 percent yesterday and not just for the front end, but also for an ad december contract late this year. and so you know, it's rippling and state cascading through the global economy. and we, you so much energy for so many things, then everything will go increasing and cost industrial matthews, i'm moving straight off to, to the increased costs. but all start agricultural products are moving straight up the matter with the highest price ever in no renewal terms or the agriculture product. a ben cayo. how bad could this get for the u. s. economy, the longer these guys on, you mentioned, you know, higher prices at the palms. that's, that's going to affect many americans more, more directly. but the longer with the other problems that the u. s. economy and other economies are facing right now with inflation and trying to get trying to recover from, from, from the long pandemic. the effects to that,

how back to this get, the longer this goes on for america. i think inflation is an economy why problem? united states, not just in the sector, but it's going to enter. you see the price of food is increased. the cost of everything seems to be going up. i think the, the number one challenge for the white house and energy is a huge part of it. now the consumer prices are increasing around 77 percent of all, most of us have never seen this presentation license and you know the old adage and i guess the prices that people feel every time they see the numbers pretty physical. some of the inflation feel around. so the white house is really keenly focused on this. that's been a huge challenge for them since the fall. we saw the white, i'll start to experiment with using the strategic petroleum reserve last november to try to put on the market who the market. let's talk over and over again about

trying to have dialogue, producers, to encourage them to auction. the reality is, this is a white house, but i think we want to talk about, well, they want to talk about the energy transition. we want to talk about pushing that forward. the energy security issues come back in a big way in the past 6 months. and so they're trying to keep her eyes on that rising longer term energy transition issues care so passionately about trying to push those forward. but the reality to mark is inter things. of course it got much worse. and last week, alex and a lot, we mentioned at the top there how opec for now is going to stick to its current policy of not opening up the taps further to try and bring putting the pressure down and increase supply. and by hopefully lower the price is what's the thinking behind that and what are the, the kind of geopolitical implications as well with the biden and ministration is a great question. i think many years been at this week you

have a very quick meeting and they keep production same. now another thing we understand is they really didn't think there's much an additional oil mark. and because from there you, a lot of the price is coming from the premium or, and their experience and the live experience people that are meeting that countries . now, jones, adding additional barrels and markets it's facing crisis is not always the best fee to bring prices down to get to that point are often just not a correlation there, especially in the prices. so 1st of all, there wasn't much points and adding additional barrels. they also point out, you know, russia in the key members of the opec alliance, that's been magic markets for

a number of years now. and they also did not want to get into discussion with russia. member states about whether it's appropriate to be changing right now. because once you start talking about it, it starts getting complicated and they did not want stories. so the strategy were quick, continuation already and now get it over with and don't become the story. they do not jive right now, which the framework be on shall job. is there a fear as well that by increasing supply right now, it could come back to bite them and later on you'll get a lot in the markets and that'll bring oil prices to low to low to, to low. do they like right. i mean, if you look at the brent crude orders book price today, it traded as high as $127.00 per barrel. i think sort of these, of course oil prices cheating, wind across the world for consumers everywhere while while map gas prices. so are

predominant asian and european consumers, and i think, you know, versus historical level demand destruction for oil is starting to buy from $12000.00 per barrel. so we were starting to make this production on demand side with, with current or prices, and i think opec would very much like to avoid abuse and then a bus. they would like to avoid that current spike in energy and metals. and it grew culture prices to basically it keeps the go my comment intercession. so i think yes at restaurants or they're able to have a very, very important relationship. and so these is very lucky to step in that metal in the whole thing and add more barrow in the middle of the crisis. but you know, the price continues to $100.00 or $250.00. you know, i think the cost of difference because the risk actually really increases

significantly. and the best part of this is not really what you want as an oil producer really would like to be it more stable and that avoiding the bus. so that could change the way it's been k o, what's your view on that? i think it's a tough position for us to be there. say the goal is to avoid volatility in the work and the back of this is the spare capacity within the group is pretty limited. you know, if you take a step back in april 2020 ok, the biggest production cups responded to the price crash that happened. with insurance after 199 point something 1000 market ever since, month by month, been adding thousands. what they said is that they're hoping to down supply and demand. they don't want to move too quickly and put too many barrels onto the

market. they do see some potential downside risk issue here is that asked about it more oil onto the market each, not the wedge and available spare capacity. it's gotten smaller and smaller and in a tight market like this, a lot of concerns. we've been tories pretty strong demand. people are worried about low cost. so in addition to the question of whether not in helping markets put barrels on, it's kind of a standard don't situation. know. they put more gauss on the market and administer capacity to backfire in some ways. so my read on meeting this week is that the need is a little more time to digest what was happening and the scale of disruption from russia before we take action. i think another thing is back in their minds is that we could have been around to some point very soon and that would have really, truly packed on balance for the rest of this year. so yeah, i think there were some benefits. see how this unfolds, and then maybe come back to me decision point. so yeah, that's for,

that's alex in de la. i mean, ben k, hill there was talking about if there's a possibility of reviving the 2015 nuclear iran nuclear deal and the potential of bringing iran back into the, into the oil market. what, what effect could that have? well that we have a major impact and so what we are hearing is that we are quite close a deal being agreed between us western powers and bronze. ready former president trump walked away from and this would be a significant addition to the market for all we understand that it was not a, a point of discussion. really. they kind of just want to get it as possible not very much at all. and their policies, they don't really talk about what's going to happen future but, but a return of iran, at least from a sentiment given the understanding that back to the market. and they can actually

do it would potentially counteract some of that sort of thing in the market, which is, which is getting quite good now. and i think we have to remember that it's going to take months to bring any ray in production back. i think the range hope that they can move out one day over the next couple of months actually do is read everything or experience that sometimes optimistic but all the time. so, well, the announcement of the deal would be from a center where you potentially, or something that can counteract higher world prices for a physical supply point of view. i think people should get too excited about this, actually changing the question, but we're talking about here because as ben says we're having is not quite enough world. it's sort of this market and the actual barrels of that. ready are getting smaller, smaller beyond shell job, a lot of people have insane. it's the,

the war ukraine may have a limited impact on the, on the global economy right now, because trade links with russia and the rest of the world were limited to begin with with russia accounting for something at 1.5 percent of jo, global g d p, o, so with that in mind, then what, what potential impact you think that could be both on, on, on rushes, economy and the rest of the world? well, i mean, as long as energy prices are low, we tend to forget that it matters, right? it's kind of off the chart out of mine, and we don't know if it's how incredibly important and the g and it's before prices starts to rise significantly. and of course, russia is massively important for global energy market, especially for european and general ford of noble market. but, but also remember that russia, it's a very our tech support rope. and l a. d m,

and the and a lot of other resource as well. and not to forget, russia is the biggest number one we export in the world, and ukraine is number number 5. and together it, russia and ukraine export more from the source of bread baskets and black earth and, and black c region. and they are bigger together then united states and canada together. so you know, when it's really fun and you really want and the, you want food. of course, russia is massively important. just the short comment on, on crude barrels from, from opec plus, you know, what we see here is, is this, we started in the natural gas market with light molecules. and these typically have, have cascade into a tight market for the lights we've created. typically brent crude and v t i and the crude that opec plus typically have,

and that russia also have is it is medium heavy and power crude. so this is not the biggest short edge, the biggest shortest is in the life and of the specter for lights with crude and eating rally. but of course, now we're losing something like one to 2000000 barrels of her day from russia in terms of crude oil power mediums our crude and, and them. and that is, of course, heightening off that part of the mark. which of course, the rest of last could help to alleviate that be good, but you know, right now it's an exporter strike in terms of crude borrows out of all rush right. seems which c for is not one piece is take the cargo refineries not want to take the oil. so even if in and that is not anxious for exports out the rush in practical terms, we actually see as char reduction or flows of both coal and oil out of

western and russian had been cahill beyond mentioned there, the impact of wheat we when we supply so beyond oil, we look at other commodities like lightweight, which as was said, russia and ukraine, our last supplies of what, what implications, what impact could that have on, on the global markets? i think the only good for russia is often thought of as an export or just work a lot of metals and reflections model. and so did you pretty much what i think it adds to be in pushing that concern receive well, food prices, a lot of places, not regions that are quite dependent on friends in ports. so it's going to add to some of that economic pressure. and just a backup, something that i mean, i think when we look at the shortages today,

we see an immediate impact with some of these other commodity commodities, inputs and kind of based materials that are used. factoring lots of other potential price. in fact, we're not going to stream it today. we'll continue over a couple months. all right, we're going to have to leave it there. thank you. to all 3 of you, alex shanda law. be on a shell drop and ben k. hill, thanks so much for being on the inside story. and thank you. as always watching, remember, you can see this program again any time just go to a website just to dot comment for further discussion. go to our facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash a j inside sport. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle. there is a j inside story. for me hasn't see can the whole team here in the hall bye for now? i dictatorships, to democracies, activists to corporations,

control of the message is crucial. oil companies have become very good at recognizing ways to phrase what they want to hear. we care about the environment you do to, you should buy our oil cleared for public opinion or profit. once you make people afraid, you can use that to justify stripping away basic civil liberties. listening post examines the vested interest behind the content you consume on al jazeera. little is more distressing for a woman than a month 20 pregnancy going horribly wrong. aside from then being punished, boy el salvador, strict abortion laws that seem women incarcerated for years. some say they're only crime was the devastating stillberg an empowering story of one woman struggle that ignited a movement. miscarriage, of justice. a witness documentary on al jazeera. ah

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ah oh, ah, russian forces tug at the largest nuclear power plant in europe, causing it to catch fire disasters just been a visit. usually we will take in mates if there is an explosion, that's the end. but every one, the end for europe. ah, i come all santa maria here in doha, continuing coverage of the russia ukraine war on al jazeera. we had 9 days into this conflict and rushes, 65 kilometers.