the just an increasing greatly that knowledge of how potentially to build a nuclear bomb. but in recent weeks there has been progress. the talks have been continuing here in the last few days. they've gone on late in the night. the european envoys left vienna in the last 24 hours to go and consult with the capitals, with many believing a deal was very close. and that's why the comments of the russian foreign minister are worrying for all involved in this process. he's now asking for guarantees that the sanctions have been put on russia not going to affect russia's trade and relations with iran. it's a real spanner in the works. at the 11th hour negotiations. ah, hello, are you watching? just 0. these are the stories we're following. the sound you claims president is called on his people to fight back and resist the russian invasion. it comes after

a temporary faith 5 failed with each side, blaming the other for violating the truth. not being in the road. it is that if we will not give our country to the invaders, ukrainian, people in every occupied place. go on attack counselor attack. you have to struggle . you have to fight like and co song for dancing. you have to go out and test them out clear this evil from al land. let me zelinski has also asked us president joe biden for more support during the phone call. gabriel alexander reports from washington dc. the 2 leaders talked about security for ukraine and continued security support on behalf of new us to ukraine. also talked about sanctions for continuing ramping up of sanctions. that by an apparently towards when you said it would continue to go on and continue to be a point of that. the white house would continue to focus on what was not discussed,

or at least what was not mentioned in the read out from the white house where 2 things, any sort of calls for biden, talking about transferring of military aircraft to ukraine. that's something that's been talked about a bit, but there was no discussion of that between the 2 leaders, according to the read out, and also the no fly zone. russian president vladimir putin is warning. any country that tries to impose that no fly zone over ukraine would be a participant in a military conflict. visa and mastercard are spending all operations in russia. it means any credit card issued in the country can no longer be used and cards issued elsewhere won't work in russia. okay, those are the headlines. i'm emily anguish. the news continues here on out to 0 after inside story. and in the meantime, had to our website out there to come talk to alger. see we ask, do you believe that the french invasion of ukraine is currently the biggest threat

international patient security? listen, we are focusing so much on the humanitarian crisis that we forget. the long term development we meet with global news makers. i'm talk about the story stuck matters on al jazeera. russia's invasion of ukraine has driven up the cost of staple food, wheat, and porn prices. of reach record highs, developing nations already feeling the pain. so is global food security at risk? this is inside store. ah. hello and welcome to the program. i'm fully back table. russia's war on ukraine has created fears of a global food crisis. the 2 countries supply a 3rd of the world's wheat and our major exporters of barleycorn and sunflower. oil

fighting has destructed exports, and that's led to record prices on international markets. the cost of weeds is at its highest level in 14 years. corn is that a 9 year high ukraine sport stopped working when russia began its invasion last week. this means grain stalks from both countries aren't reaching their main market in the middle east and africa. economists say consumers, particularly in lower and middle income countries, will have to pay higher prices. while let's take a look at how much some countries rely on russia and ukraine suite. many of them are ready babbling food shortages. egypt is it world's biggest importer of wheat? it gets 85 percent of it from russia and ukraine. the 2 nations also supply war ravaged. yemen with 40 per cent and ukraine's wheat makes up around half of lebanon's needs. the countries still recovering from the barrel to port blast in 2020. that destroyed its main grain silo. oh,

the law more is distribution escalades and the root market is whole good that we have enough for about months of earth or for v stored in the mil to salma. but after that, we have no reserves for her live in new hampshire relevant granules, russia, with war in ukraine and russia, our reserves will drop. and instead of supporting all needs for the next 4 years, it will only be available for 2 or 3 months. a crisis will affect us and will, will suffer from wheat shortages. but while i work with them about how to move because of the war between russia and ukraine, we have fears of a shortage of flour and wheat. but god willing, we will overcome these difficulties. acronyms i love it. ah, well, let's bring in our guest now in beirut, we have patrick martini and economists at leaden hold international for market solutions. he's also the president of the lebanese institute for market studies in

washington, dc. david, the board as senior research fellow at the international foot policy research institute and in london, darma dow and geopolitical risk consult and specializing in russia any carcasses. a warm welcome to your gentlemen. thank you very much for being on inside story, patrick in beirut. let me start with you. lebanon of course, relies heavily on weight from ukraine is already facing a very bad economic crisis. oh, tell us about the situation right now. how worse could it get? and what's a knock on effect of the war in ukraine on lebanon? sure, so we're lebanon, as you said, import smallest of the wheat from ukraine, or the disruption in the, as off. see, and the black sea are actually impacting too many variables that have been already bought or so you have those supply change chain problems or the ships are being laid and her and the but as i now we're looking for and turner term for on imagine

t and i s e and probably canada for a in, in, in case you have longer war and more options. so basically, if you are going to input the suite from turner to places the prices would be higher, that you need to transport them through in all the route. so it's more expensive and now with the ward increasing the fuel prices worldwide. the transportation costs will be even higher, right? so actually we will have a lebanon with isis, nit going up yet, the economy ministry. i said there's a month worth of, of that week. recess left. how will the lebanese government respond? you think so there's less of a problem because the main site law that stores there has been destroyed. that wouldn't, wasn't with me a would. and indeed, now we rely on small storage facilities, in small mills across lebanon,

which can only last for one month. now the ministry of economy fixes the prices wheat if they will keep her air of absence, or if they will keep the price of bread law. and the price of importing weed will be higher because of what in which will be higher than the prize. then we might to have serious shortages, so the ministry should or e cottages and increase the prices in order to allow covered in the higher cost. or else we might end up met. an increase in price is, is not good for the lebanese people. is it? i mean, there are any facing a severe economic issues. absolutely, i mean, lebanon is going to one or little houses crisis ever. or we have a massive, we had the massive given regional currency, which made the purchasing power emission showing. so now they can buy with less with the same wage and with the increase of prices of read it will increase poverty party john to like 80 percent 80 to 85 percent of the population is so much is

expected to be under. what was the lion bow and those expectation would be higher in case we had either shortage of leads or higher prices? oh, the other by mention is that the bank subsidizes her and is looking at the doll reserve on that. i don't know how much it would drain or those reserve any more. okay, patrick, let me bring in and dave into the conversation, and we'll, we'll a further talk about this region and lebanon and other countries that are heavily reliant on wheat from a ukraine and russia. david out we are now into the 2nd week of this conflict in ukraine and wheat prices have already gone up. do you expect them to to go up as much as 50 percent or some people are predicting? and what will that mean for countries in part of the middle east and africa that are very vulnerable to the price of wheat? so that 1st time i think that even before the crises,

all the prices of the committee do are pretty high. so it's not like if we have increased by 50 percent already from lower level. so and that's all about particular we have to keep this into account before the crisis. we were already, you know, very gloomy situation. or we felt so bad alvin coming from like never got to the markets where are worried and, and now of course are great. these disruption where about when showed or be more of the way that is globally traded is a state of the situation. the only kind of good news is we are living with the last of it. so there were just, you know, one 3rd of the remaining of is to be shipped from your and ukraine. but of course, some countries like early by now and the jeep, we took him to produce a segment. you talk about him in that, in part weed for the w. s. p also, but up to, to pakistan. and engineers, ya go,

going west or this region is dependent on the supply on the regular basis. so that's a major source of tension. now also what we have to keep in mind if this is a situation today, tomorrow countries are printing of course new crops, but then you guys are right and he also we have a specific issue that can put pressure on the next august. indeed, yes, i will. i will get to that about that. the 1st lie, the issue because of the sanctions imposed on russia. i just want to bring in to the conversation to get your, your initial thoughts. a dara, i mean most great flows out of a death and other western force on the black sea. and we don't have a clear picture of the extent of, of the damage on port facilities and railroads. but what will be, in your opinion, the short term and a long term consequences. dara of, you know, you on ukraine's capacity to move its crop production beyond its borders.

are going to be extremely bad at the moment. what we're seeing is russian forces have taken a lot of the southern coast crane. that's where their advances have the most excess, as you get to a situation where most ukraine black support defense, the under an occupation regime, even if you can get grain to those facilities. the question really as to whether it can be exported from there. this is before we get to the fact that the war itself is depleting ukraine's capacity to produce grand teton both due to direct damage and due to diversion manpower. and just to clarify, because we, we've heard about the sanctions of course, are the sanctions imposed on on russia. dara, are they already impacting a 3rd party in countries that are reliant on russian exports are food and fertilizer exports for example, being allowed to continue. how the sanctions are directly affecting those. there

have been numerous corvettes within the sanctions regime for certain commodity exports. food included the questioning b, what russia itself decides to do the kremlin is very aware that inflation can be a potent political tool to put pressure on the countries that are supporting ukraine. we've already seen just buying dresses, heads made inflation and preventing inflation due to the sanctions hitting american consumers. a key talking point. and it's not clear that that's with her when it comes to food. russia, even for this war, had reduced its export quota for the year ahead, fearing the potential rise in domestic prices. we've also seen, you know, very good point of fertilizers, russia galleries, produce a huge amount of the world's potash. and they're already talking about restrictions on mass. equally natural gas is one of the previous components for

a lot of chemical fertilizers. so we can be in a position where russia is still able to produce quite a lot of food and it's restricting how and where it exports it. and it's also restricting the components for, for fertilizers, interviewed for other countries to grow food. and this creates a pretty powerful inflationary pressure in an economic situation where we're already seeing pretty high levels of inflation to the, emerged from the pandemic. and that's put pressure on the political leaders who are crimes or crank. so dad, david dara says, you know, russia could use this as a pressure tool, but the russians also on to a great deal of pressure with the sanctions. is there any way that russian produces good 2nd vent the sanctions perhaps? so china for example. so okay, i think that, that the chinese market can be a key key source of opportunities for return producers just doing the audit in game,

for instance, or china as accepted to lower their if you want sanitary, stand out on some sit meant to receive more grain from russia that previously where been from their markets a steel, you know, what's going to happen in the block c and c, p grains from the western parts of russia to china. it is going to be obviously costly. um, and there are some limits to, to that. and, and i mean, the recent governments of is on the way to control electric spotters are doing so. it's not like if it is a radio market economy where people we try to find on market on their own. right. so we talked about the fertilizers, how, how are people going to get the fertilizer they need to grow more forward if they're not getting it from russia. david, so, you know, we have different kind of 13. i saw some can be manufacturing from natural gas or coal, and he of course, the supply of natural gas in coal is an issue or the price can be an issue. and

then you have some thought to laser, like put us in 1st thought that our mind from, from a deposit and these deposits are not available every one of. so we are going to see the production that can on tiffany increase someplace like, like canada. actually, you know, germany of their own, oh, put us a deposit. so, but still we are going to see very i price, meaning that the wealthy farmers, and basically the farmers from the us from europe are going to be able to afford it . even if the cost of production we go up and of course the cost of the grains to produce will go up. but the northern part of the world that where we can see really shortage, right. we have some government subsidized fertilizer, and i think that would be the same description that we had earlier about you know, home on how long government can really subsidize in which without a big becoming bankrupt. but in other places, in particular, in africa, we can see so that we've lower production. when we stop from situation we acted

even don't use and no fertilizer in this part of the world. and then he lowered the very low and that can be very a big issue as making all subsidies patrick in beirut. let's talk about this region and i want to talk about egypt in particular. the gyptian government hasn't stopped yet. it subsidies of breads even though they are reports that it might do so. and, and you know, with the current situation this could mean a lot of trouble for the job sion guffman, right. they could lose out fiscal any, do you see perhaps other countries in this region? saudi arabia, for example, with money from the high oil prices stepping in to help countries like egypt or even lebanon, to help them subsidize food. so indeed, the last time we had a big increase in their, in food prices, specifically in the price of bed or both read it went hand in hand with the arab spring that i'd with that with this unrest. and so there is this constant chia

where basically than the normal thing to do is to let the price of lead bread go up because the price of meat went up. but then you are afraid of them switch intentions. i think egypt is trying to work with them, their international partners, the u. s. e, the i m f, and probably the gc can't be as in order to, to basically be able to maintain the higher cost of subsidence. good. the higher the, the wheat price that the higher because of the subsidy. and i think they would be able to put that they have also been accumulating good for and precision xserve, which would give them more, more marginal manual. i think lebanon, on the other hand, is in a biggest problem in the situation. we skipped over it, or the central bank has been draining the foreign exchange, observe message for us to new rod at alarming level. and the central bank has been using those for a change observed to things to the right to anchor to the exchange rate at to allow

$20000.00 cubans bold by losing dollars and for subsidizing wheat imports. right. but those are the 2 sources draining lebanon's food changing so of try and we already got where we cannot use them and more. so now we have a battery. what about yemen? i mean, at the wi fi here, it was already forced to reduce food rations to yemen. are for, for 8000000 people in yemen. and what impact were the escalation in the conflict there in ukraine have on food aid in yemen and other places that are in conflict in this region? i think your other guests are better. it was a simple answer this question. from my perspective, it said that sir, one, it will depend on the budget. i know that the wilson program is willing to relocate to your man and to it will depend on supply chain issues related to the sources of this week. come from and how much time it will take to get it. all right, well let's pause a moment gentlemen, and take

a look at how pressure on food supplies in the past has led to protests and political upheaval. something patrick alluded to earlier in egypt, for example, bread is a staple in every meal. costs increases and shortages triggered the bread riots in 1977, and feel the protest movement that toppled present housing. barack in 2011 teenagers bred riots of the 1980 scale to more than a 100 people fears of a repeat have been simmering ever since. and protest since sudan against the cost of bread and fuel eventually led to the removal of long time president. omar alba share in 2019 derek. let me ask you about this in, in low and middle income countries like egypt, tunisia, and sudan. we've seen unrest in the past when, when you know the government brought up the, the price of bread or flower. are we looking at possible unrest now in other countries in even russia? perhaps if prices keep going up. well,

it's less likely in russia simply because russia is producing a lot of this rain in the state has huge direct and indirect control the economy. so it can subsidize those prices and it can keep prices and left with wants to i would expect that the kremlin will do that. it's these rising prices, any sort of threats while you're putting has been talking a lot about the bolsheviks recently. and it was the bread riots and $917.00 that over to this are and helping 100 power. so you're quite right that you know this, this is a stable, this is not a non, this is not like it's very commodity people eat. what will be interesting going forward is to see whether russia can use export reserves as a tool of influence. we've seen during this crisis that russia not only based kind of coalition, but when i say my usual suspects are crime but headspace wide

range of countries that normally the a little bit more sympathetic to its position. interesting or voting against it and international for you. and so, you know, providing great into countries that are under arrests or regimes where, you know, they, the government may come stabilize the rest and maybe a way for russia to win friends and influence. assuming you can get right, patrick, you have thoughts about what, what this could lead to possibly, i mean, could this lead to unrest in the middle east, north africa region, if prices are going up and keep going up or i think that there is highest and best especially that we've been in a high inflation framework for a while or with calls id of course you had, i mean, if you do, we need to separate in the middle east between or in exporting nations and all

important. i don't think that all explore all at yahoo submission would have any problem. could see, i think that the problem is with the other countries, those countries who might have some social and resting later to the high prices were already in high prices by elements. and now with this shock, i think writers will be higher in lebanon. we had massive demonstration the past 2 years. or there you were earned, protested corruption. and we are heading to, in an election within like a couple of months. so it's like the worst time with the contrast, i think nations try and if they think about that, then you know, new their massive disruption in massive david this war in ukraine today poses a serious risk to global food security. why should be the response from government thing of u. n and international organizations? so, i was just one of the responses to use money. and we just feed, you know,

some of the on export our countries connecting will be like some of our financial resources to support some good man that we'll have to implement. so self 50 net to, to protect their population, at least in the middle of these crises. but also as we discussed, w s p, the offered programs when the cost off with their budget doesn't automatically. but to get that process, where are you divided by 2? so we also need to, to have them. and now i think there is additional measure that have to be taken 1st for the diary t also on this commodity market. we don't want to see a domino effect of export restriction on export band that we looked into find the issue. so the last thing that we need is more that in the f a, you know, there are to fight for the inflation. i'm also restricting my, my exports are then tonight. so i keep that in many cases due to such i don't know if at all and for the inflation then to put this export to meet. but you just make the world market smaller and smaller and people start to panic and be more and more

. and so you see really the sterling situation as we have seen 257258. so, you know, he's called the nation and tried to show solidarity not in terms of money with us in terms of community. last but not least today, we are able to love just one example of the but please see that can use to do we have loved by your programs that consume last year of grange, but also available. and i just want to point out the variable on market is also enjoy and just dipping footfall for many people in particular when we move more in which town as it does. yeah. and you know how we can basically reduce the pressure, reduce the demand on what is known in some sure, because feeding people is essential and that can be kind of response, you know, in a more medium term thinking, right? that dara, in london. let me get your thoughts on this. you know, what should government and international organizations do, and what are some of the measures that importing countries could take to mitigate

the drop in supply? it was everything with david just said there is up here. what importing countries can do without the cooperation, collaboration of exploring countries with international financial support to get to, to people at a reasonable price. you know, so if we're going to cushion the impact markets on the final consumers, the question that i would have is whether governments around the globe have the bandwidth and the capacity to do this, that you and the us are already quite engaged with the ukraine crisis they're, they're kind of fighting that fire right now. the u. s. will probably still have half an eye on it to pacific strategy and potential challenges from china. and the kinds of programs i was talking about would require a pretty global, multilateral response to, to ensure that fertilizer is a grain,

that everything is shipped worldwide to where it's needed at a reasonable price. and so it was a coordination issue and something that, you know, the glow hasn't been extremely good at doing the past, but we'll see what happened. conflict goes on. whether we get to a point where the actual fighting crane is terminated, quickly, go onto mitigating it. suspects including global markets. but right now i would say it's, it's difficult to see that actually well thank you to all of i guess patrick martini david labord and dara mcdowell. and thank you for watching. you can watch this program again any time by visiting our website at all. is there a dot com for further discussion? go to facebook page at facebook dot com forward slash ha inside story. you can also join the competition on twitter. we are a j inside from me fully valuable in the whole team. thanks for watching. bye for

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which takes an unexpected term very difficult to search for her way. yeah. these are very stray dog analogy 0. ah. the red cross is the situation in east in ukraine, in the city of mary paul is dia after a ceasefire collapses. ah, hello, i'm emily. ang, when this is al jazeera alive from dough, also coming up, us secretary of state antony blink and visits moldova, offering support to the former soviet state, as it takes in thousands of refugees from ukraine, while ukrainians later volota me, zalinski speaks to the u. s. president,

appealing for more military and financial support and visa and mastercard, suspend operations in.